Covid-19 - Update on Vaccines and The State of the Pandemic with Paul Offit and George Rutherford
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 5 ส.ค. 2024
- In this UCSF Medicine Covid-19 Grand Rounds, we’ll get a front-row seat into the latest FDA proceedings on vaccines from Dr. Paul Offit, world renowned vaccinologist and co-inventor of the rotavirus vaccine. We’ll discuss vaccines for kids, the latest on boosters, and vaccine uptake and distribution in the U.S. and globally. We’ll also hear from our own Dr. George Rutherford, who will update us on the state of the pandemic, including current trends in California, the U.S., and the world.
Note: Closed captions will be available within 48-72 hours after posting.
Program
Bob Wachter: Introduction
00:03:20-00:44:11 - Paul Offit (Professor of Vaccinology at the University of Pennsylvania, Professor of Pediatrics at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, Director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia)
00:44:11-01:03:10- George Rutherford (Professor in Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, UCSF Medical Director of Prevention and Public Health)
Bob Wachter: Closing
See previous Medical Grand Rounds:
• October 28: Clinical Problem Solving
• Clinical Problem Solvi...
• October 14: Covid-19 - Lessons Learned and What’s Ahead: A Conversation with Ashish Jha
• Covid-19 - Lessons Lea...
• October 7: An Evolutionary Biologist Looks at Variants, and the Role of Rapid Testing in Covid
• An Evolutionary Biolog...
• September 30: Restoring Words: Development of a Speech Neuroprosthesis for Communication
• Restoring Words: Devel...
See all UCSF Covid-19 grand rounds, which have been viewed over 3M times, here: medicine.ucsf.edu/covid-19-ne...
My Dad got severe weakness that developed into shaking and is hospitalized. Also his mind is severely affected after 2nd dose of Pfizer. His Doctor, and two neurologists say "rare but not unique" recation from the vaccine. Do you think some of the same mechanisms implicated for mRNA Vaccine related Myocarditis could also be the cause of neurological problems Molecular mimicry between spike protein and self-antigens? Immunogenicity of RNA in certain individuals? Committing the body to an immune response that is more inflammatory in nature ? What theories or mechanisms are discussed that affect neurology within the body ?
Thank you so much for your work!
Another great, excellent program for the public interest and good. Hooray for UCSF. We're lucky to have you in our community. Thanks!
Brilliant. Thank you
Paul is really a great communicator
Very interesting as always, and I would miss the comments ;-)
We have a surge here in Austria and it seems kids are driving that like in UK (7 days incidence of 14yo and below is currently >700 and getting higher quickly)
As unappealing as trying to sustain NPI's for years and years may be, the prospect of a significant percentage of children and adults developing long covid seems even less appealing. I think we'll recognize this eventually.
I wish these were made available in other languages - so much misinformation is being circulated worldwide
How does an outside physician apply for CME?
Other than elevated antibodies, which hasn't been proven to be a correlate of immunity, how do we know that infection + a single vax dose is equivalent to two doses without prior infection?
I'm sorry but the R number is not between 5 and 9. In calculating this they have failed to take into account that the delta variant has a much shorter incubation period. If it is half as long as the incubation period of the wild type the the R number is between the 2.2 and 3 ie the square root of 5 and 9. With 750,000 Americans in early graves it is hard to believe how the "experts'" can make such an elementary error. It has not mutated into chickenpox style infectiousness, it has mutated into common cold / flu type infectiousness and it is able to multiply, shed and infect a new host before the memory B cells start producing fresh antibodies. What is so difficult to understand? It's so obvious.
I am sorry but you are wrong. Taking the upper bound, if R0 = 3 herd immunity (for a 100% effective vaccine ) would be Ih = (R0 - 1) /R0 = (3 -1)/3 = 2/3 = 67%.
Even with a vaccine only 85% effective, this would give herd immunity of 78%,.
In the US the total immunity from vaccination and natural immunity is of this order. In the UK it is 88%. With Rt = R0 x (1 - i) where i is the current immunity,
Rt = 3 x (100% - 88%) = 0.36, adjusting this for the effectiveness of the vaccines does not even reach 0.5. The spread of the virus is obviously close to 1.
Your suppersion on mutation into Flu like virus is also wrong. Ultimately this is where the virus is going, but not for a few years.
The US has more waves to come, perhaps two in the north and two in the south. Ultimately I estimate that the total death toll in the US shall be 1.25 - 1.5M and about an equal number of those with Long Covid.
@@christopherrobinson7541 Does your math take into consideration the fact the vaccines are leaky ie non-sterilizing?
Are you using the new KIng of Prussia Children's Hospital ,?
This is really just brilliant
Great discussion. I wholeheartedly agree that 1 mRNA dose is sufficient for those with naturally acquired post infection immunity. Glad the two agreed on that!
I actually favor a wide separation strategy for them. 2nd dose 3-6 months later.
Please discuss Gavin Newsom's latest vaccine injury and how that affects the status of the vaccine mandates moving forward.
BARKING on the wrong tree !.
Ironically named Brain School hahahahah
The data gets a little confusing (when you look at a variety of sources). One suspicion I get is in regards to the need for a Booster Shot.... Automatically you can say that being fully vaccinated by 2 doses isn't enough immunity so most are "not really" fully vaccinated (in terms of decent immunity) until a 3rd shot. Isn't it fair to say that the 'original' promise of protection did in fact fall short of expectations? Can we be at least honest about this? I've heard Doctors say they were disappointed with the results when the majority of the population were fully vaccinated (@70 - 80%)
Another thing we must be honest about is that the waning (if any) of the 3rd jab is totally unknown at the moment - the hope of the booster shot being the 'final' answer is still a hope and assumption.
It's no conspiracy theory that there are still plenty of deaths and they include plenty of so-called "fully vaccinated"
WE NEED TRANSPARENT HONESTY if you want vaccine hesitancy to stop or slow down.... TWO JABS MISSED THE GOAL IT'S AT LEAST A PARTIAL FAILURE.
During the normal timescale for the development of a vaccine Phase 1 and 2 would have had the luxury of trialing different doses and vaccination schemes. We did our best, but the gap between doses was not determined by considerations of efficacy, but rather on how short we can get away with (or just maybe to be first to market).
For whatever reason a booster make sense, after all in the US with so many vaccine hesitant, there are vaccines available just seeking arms, so why not use them before they go out of date.
After all we cannot give them away to other needy countries, because they do not have the infrastructure to get them into arms.
The problem is that there is a high correlation between vaccination rates and deaths. Heavily vaccinated countries still have cases. Universal vaccination will just cause the virus to mutate around the narrow protection offered by the vaccine.
The Alpha and Delta variants emerged at the end of 2020, before the vaccines were deployed. The Delta variant has been dominant for 6 months. The current vaccines are as effective against these variants as the tweaked vaccines, so they are not currently being deployed.
At present the highest cases and death rates are in the Eastern European countries where the vaccination rates are low.
@@christopherrobinson7541 Why is India only at 340 deaths per million? Early treatment is a better public health policy than vaccination.
@@christopherrobinson7541 what about the provinces in Ireland with 99% vaccination and the highest cases?
Israel has triple boosted but cases continue to rise.
@@politics4816 Have you ever been to India? They didn't count deaths accurately before the pandemic. And they admitted it.
@@Cathy-xi8cb Just because India is a relatively poor country doesn't mean they don't track people. They are leading the world in biometrics and having good records of all their citizens. In the USA the current administration has and open borders and we have no idea who is coming and going or even how many people are in our country. So many people in the USA don't even have ID's they are not required to vote. In India you need a biometric ID to vote.
Why so few relevant comments?
Your view appears to be the same as mine.
Europe is going to suffer another wave, as is the cold states in the US. The hot states will also suffer another wave.
In the west I that it will become endemic Spring 2023. In the far east it will take a couple of years longer.
Eventually we will awaken from this deception. The tragedy is that it is taking a long time for us to wake up.
Spanish, please??
Explain CRISPR, mrna, and cas13a
The answer is 43.
The dark clouds on the horizon is when the citizens figure out what y'all did.
FUD peddling again I see. Bugger off, peasant.
@@steveaustin5344 lol.
You must be a person who supports crimes against humanity
Wow your ability to reason is amazing.
@@jasonvoss1984 you can't reason with genocide
That sentence doesn't even make sense.
And again BARKING at the wrong tree !.
Dr Ofit, sir, the most isolated are single adults, not children. In facr children enjoyed a relatively profound bonding experience with their patents and siblings that was lacking prior to pandemic. Frustrating that you perhaps have also have been infected with politics and media repetition.
Very true. This pandemic has been wonderful for families. Many people started working from home for the first time and will never go back to an office again.
Thanks for your service - proving real time updates on pandemic spread and mitigation.
I hope UCSF will look at the comments and turn them off. The gullible paranoids have other places they can post their belief systems (BS).
It is the lack of debate and the suppression of discussion that makes people hesitate. Very frustrating not to have a voice. Everyone should watch the Ron Johnson panel to look at the collateral damage.
@@politics4816 There is plenty of debate about the details. But peer review that disproves hoaxes is not censorship, it's fact checking. I have watched Senator Johnson and he is either lying or uninformed. I prefer to get medical understanding from experts in public health, virology and related fields (knowing that no one is perfect). I don't rely on any flavor of politician, especially someone as biased as Sen. Johnson. He has state of the art health care that mere mortals cannot afford. it is not a coincidence the unvaccinated have been nearly all of the ICU - covid patients in 2021 in the USA.
Mark: I think you are right. No point in giving people a platform when they have Qanon to help them out.
I bet you won't talk about the pandemic babies being born from jab parents
Please share what you know. I'm a midwife; my midwife colleagues are reporting no significant effects from the vaccination but lots of hospitalizations and even terribly sad deaths from Covid among pregnant clients. In my small practice, I've seen no ill effects in the babies born to mothers who were vaccinated during the pregnancy. Do you have any reputable links to share?
@@veronicafalcao4858 do a TH-cam search on "gmo babies" and listen to the 2 Ted talks about that topic.
@@captron7814 looking at possible treatments for genetic disorders has nothing to do with immune protection for disease.
Do you understand how these new vaccines work? - not if you are mixing these different topics up.
@@mail4lana with messenger rna?
Do you understand how CRISPR is delivered, with messenger rna?
China = bad
@@mail4lana
China bad