How Long Can Putin Afford to Wage War in Ukraine? | Alexandra Prokopenko
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How long can Putin afford to continue his war in Ukraine without inflicting economic pain on his own people? With state spending on defense now exceeding investment in sectors like education and health, some analysts are predicting a painful economic hangover after the war ends. Alexandra Prokopenko, a Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center expert and former advisor to the Russian central bank, answers DW’s questions.
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Original video: • How long can Putin aff...
It is always nice to run into a new voice that clearly knows the subject she is discussing. I will memorize her name and hope to see her again. Thank you.
To summarize, the current situation is not sustainable.
Unsustainable for west. Russia is doing fine.
@@larrousseyves9408
Russia is an economic dwarf. A Mosquito.
The West is a large herd of elephants.
Italy has the same size economy as Russia.
@@larrousseyves9408Actually no. The burden of the war on the West is minimal - on average, Ukraine's allies have spent less than 1% of their GDP on helping Ukraine. This additional spending was just a tiny stimulent of economic development - arms manufacturers got to do better business, but their impact on the economy overall wasn't big enough to cause major changes, such as a spike in inflation. If anything, the highly skilled workforce in the West has increased, and the stimulus for defense industry spilled over in other manufacturing enterprises too. Russia, however, with its 8% spending on the war, its aged population that relies greatly on social support payments, its shrinking and less and less skilled workforce, fully feels the economic pain. It's solely Russia's size that prevents a fast crash. Russia will crash extremely hard, once it exhausts its reserves, and its size, while it helps delay the crash, will ensure that that crash will be catastrophic. The crash will be so bad that additional parts of the Russian federation will split away, leaving Russia doubly weakened - smaller, stripped of some of its most resource-rich regions, and also bankrupt and with an aged and unskilled workforce.
if spending a cold Russian winter freezing in the dark in one's apartment and having one son dead in a pointless war and having one's other son flee the country permanently to avoid dying in the same pointless war is all acceptable to Russians then sure -
Russia is doing fine.
@@geofflepper3207 What you describe is the ukrainian reality.
Russia's future is as a Chinese resource colony.
No. No.
China has no future.
There will be no China in the future.
China has begun an economic and a demographic collapse. In 6 months or in 6 years we will watch this decline.
That could be said of numerous countries in relation to America. For instance? 80% of Australia’s trade is with China. Australia’s economy is reliant on China, it is called trade where countries sell their produce, to other countries, it doesn’t make them colonies. Would you say Australia is a resource colony of China? If Russia had been selling its resources to Europe, which it was and will be again in the future you would not have said Russia is a resource colony of Europe. Your comment is an attempt to denigrate Russia.
😂
@@johnm7267 very good answer and well DOCUMENTED,,,
Excellent discussion, answers a lot of questions and explains what's going on clearly and concisely.
She is lying
@@megthornton1371how do we know you are not lying?
@@megthornton1371 If you know better, and are known to be better informed, how come you are not being interviewed ?
@@megthornton1371And you are a pathetic troll.
Also note that the Russian military coplex isn't effectively producing anything for the economy. The weapons they produce will go to Ukraine to be spend or blown up. So the workers get big salaries, but there is less goods to distribute. The sanctions make this effect stronger.
The inflation will go wild at some point.
The Russian military complex isn’t producing anything. They’re refurbishing antique Soviet stockpiles.
only if there is somthing to spend the money on
As long China is willing to deliver consumer goods 😊
Your comments are ridiculous. Have you been in Russia and examined what is going on there? You haven't, so Jeep your mouth shut.
Lol.. you seem living in a different universe
Thank you for the content
Thanks for an informative interview
Uh uh uh uh. Not informative at all lol. It was blah blah blah. She kept repeating the samething over and over again. Russia is doin fine economically. Militarily it is good. Brics will destroy the west.
Thank you for an intelligent talk from an insider.
Excellent insights, thanks.
Valuable information
Economic pain on his people is another sacrifice Putin is willing to make.
Yes and no. Putin fears revolt. He fears his own people more than anything else. That's why he's done absolutely everything to severely limit forced conscription.
I think you may be right, but only if he can convince Russians it's all the west's fault.
Nothing compared to the economic pain that Biden is putting on Americans.
RUSSIA is really feeling this ECONOMICAL war alright.Why last week,THE WORLD BANK announced that Russia is now the 4th largest economy,of the world surpassing that of Japan.I can immagine the pain,after hoping to occupy the 2nd position.What a lot of pain.
@@petehowett2854
Where do you get this nonsense? I'm genuinely curious. The most trivial of Google searches tells us it's a lie.
@@petehowett2854
Source? Something other than one of your bodily orifices pls.
I think that future trade,scientific and cultural relations between the west and russia will be a long time to improve.
This sounds so redundant in the midst of the genocide
Do you mean the people of Gaza? I mean, they are certainly suffering, as I understand it, but it doesn't seem like they are being killed off or destroyed as a people. Indeed after the war is over and things settle down, it appears as though they will receive considerable aid and help rebuilding. They will maintain then their cultural identity and their Muslim faith, and soon begin growing again in number -- so where is the genocide?
@@polarvortex3294 What does Gaza have to do with the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Nothing!
Do you mean the Russian genocide in Bucha and Irpin?
@@michaelkatz275 Well you said genocide, and the only genocide is happening in Gaza, with Western support.
Imagine bombing millions in other countries 😂 and asking favor for Ukraine from same countries ,
West🤡
Prope ko says tha life for russians have improved, in moscow and st pete but outside moscow they have gone worse. Pensions in term of subsistence have gone down.
As someone old enough to have watched the original star trek, I can't help looking at her antennae and remembering the Andorian spy with a radio in his antenna. Could she be an FSB plant?
Excelente analysis.
Very good insight in the Russian situation in the nearby future. Thank you professor Prokopenko.
unemployment is down because a huge number of working age workers left.
Left, died or work for the war machine.
Putin can pay them whatever they want, but they won't be able to buy anything with the money.
Many old people here in Austria kept praising Hitler for giving them work when they were starving.
They will pay eventually.
and they have a huge amount of people in the Army.
And with so many young men having died or been seriously injured in Ukraine, this will definitely hurt the economy and labour market in Russia...
Don't forget that there is no replacement. Russians don't have enough children
Well, Russia is in demographic crisis, the country litterally lacked millions of inhabitants even before war started so it make sens that unemployment is not a major issue, they deseperatly need people, nothing new. People think that the fall of the Berlin wall was the event that lead to the biggest emigration trend from Russia but few know that from 2009 to 2019 Russia lost on average 1 million inhabitants every single year. Russians do not feel safe in their country, they emigrate to seek better life as soon as they can but not everybody can, this war increased that trend even more. If you are a russian engineer there is no benefit to stay in russia, if you emigrate you will more than double your pay and greatly increase you lifestyle, being able to pay private school for your kids this kind of stuff while in Russia right now it is not really the ideal place to have kids.
Interesting discussion. Just a point on the EU - Russian relations going forward. I don't think we're talking years, we can likely expect decades of bad relations and lockouts. We are basically in a new cold war (hot war now) situation again. It took 50 years for relations to unfreeze last time.
But this time the EU is on the wrong side of the iron curtain
Western think tanks have been elaborately and skillfully lying to readers and listeners since their inception. When they arrive in the real world, perhaps they will see it with their own eyes.
Thank you! Brilliant woman
Thanks. From Italy.
The question in the title was not answered.
That question is unanswerable, this discussion is about the mechanizations of finances and the financial situation on a ground level in russia.
@@j.k.cascade2057 My be right. However there are some hints. Until now I used to say "at least 10 more years". After hearing what Mrs. Prokopenko has to say, I would slightly change that to "at least 15 to 20 more years".
@@beatreuteler
The hundred years war actually lasted longer than a hundred years.
Obviously it's stupid to fight a war for a century.
It's even more stupid for the Russian government to fight this war for ten years and cause millions of Russian casualties and the destruction and exhaustion of all military equipment and supplies that Russia accumulated over
80 years and to have millions more young talented Russian men flee Russia and to have the Russian economy become weaker and weaker and to have Russian infrastructure break down more and more and to have Russia become more and more of a pariah state and to have the ruble sink further and further in value and to have NATO countries build up their militaries more and more ....
.when all this can be avoided by the Russian government ending its unprovoked imperialist invasion into Ukraine and pulling all its troops out of Ukraine which the Russian dictatorship could do any day it wants.
So sure - the Russian government might be able to continue the war another ten years so that Russia is completely destroyed but why the heck would the Russian government do that?
Russia has already become subservient to China.
Another ten years of war and Russia will become a complete puppet state of China if China allows Russia to continue as a,separate country at all.
As long as it takes ;)
How is the economy today ?
Raised tax shows how it goes!,,
As long as it takes.
correction: social spending is expanding because it takes into account army related social welfare benefits for family, veterans, handicapped etc
considering putin is printing roubles now to finance his war with is budget in deficit and inflation rising, the only way to fix this is cut the big expenses. cant spend your way out by printing roubles to finance the war as it doesnt bring back tax revenue to the russian economy for the capital expediture. only results in high inflation turning into hyperinflation as time goes on.
A country can only prop up their GDP by squandering its savings manufacturing weapons for a pointless war for so long. Eventually its savings run out.
Deja vu...
With high inflation, high interest rates and now higher taxes, Russia is in death spiral. The ruble is tanking which will make things worse. Yes, you nailed it.
A country can only prop up their GDP by squandering its savings manufacturing weapons for a pointless war for so long. Eventually its savings run out.
hahahahahahahahahaha
It looks like you know nothing about Russian mentality and Russian economy. High inflation and high interest rates? Russians are used to living in the environment with high inflation. Even during all Soviet era inflation was relatively high. Less than five percent households have mortgages. Therefore high interest rates are not a problem. Higher personal taxes? They are just moving from a flat scale taxation to a progressive taxation. Finally most of Russians understand that this is an existential war for the country. They will fight for as long as it takes to win the war.
@@dmitrye3212 Oh, well then you love it and the new higher taxes too...well good cuz it will keep happening.
@@dmitrye3212 mentality is well and good, but you still have to pay for weapons and parts.
Most informave vide
In Germany we have a bunch of experts , who Tell us stupid things every day - in contrast this unbelievable smart Woman should be invited in several political Talk rounds in German TV , thank you very much !
Germany was highly penetrated by KGB.
In Germany you have a good number of politicians who are sending your economy down. She tell you want to hear.
The Russian economy is the 4th largest in the World right now!!
Ranked 12 currently
You say this with your 4 month old YT account? Seems more like propaganda from a Russian operative…..
For as long as it takes.
If he doesn’t want to loose his life he must keep on warring.
Which one of your leaders compare to Putin
@@shambalkaran9258 Hitler
So what happened to Kamaz and URAL trucks in Russia? Have they been replaced by Chinese makes of trucks?
As long as it takes
Putin’s evil in Ukraine cannot be appeased. You can say what you wish using your 11 month old YT account - but the world learned that appeasement of pure evil does not work - pre-WWII.
As long as he has soldiers and receive weapons we'll be discussing this 5 years from now.
Putin has no issues with letting his people starve before he surrenders.
Russians are not starving but people in Britain, America and Australia are. You automatically think he is going to lose. If the war develops into a third world war, Russia will have the backing of China and Nth Korea and we will see then who surrenders. NATO couldn’t beat the peasant army in Afghanistan never mind Russia. If you live in Europe you would be best emigrate, it would be madness to think Putin won’t retaliate against an attack on Russia and why would Russia starve it is a net exporter of food. You clearly don’t know what you are talking about
And then there's the real world. Seriously....
ru talking about US military Regime 🤔
Western think tanks have been elaborately and skillfully lying to readers and listeners since their inception. When they arrive in the real world, perhaps they will see it with their own eyes.
The russians are not starving at all and they won't starve
Good interview.
Alexandra, it sounds like Putin will sing the "Cool Water" song in Russian while he slowly boils the frog. Good care and a great life to you as you make your new home in the West. Maybe Vlad will make a botch of it and you will be much needed in the Russia that follows that. Both joy and sadness, ever a Russian theme.
Potin has a lot of fire power to give. Armaments are luxury to them.
What about the dead Russians? What about the millions of Russians that left? What about the convicts released into society after service? There is so much important information skirted over by people that discuss these things that have no connection to things on the ground.
She is an economist, so she can't answer questions like those.
>What about the dead Russians?
Well, Mediazone could only account for 54,000 dead Russian searching obituaries, new graves etc
>What about the millions of Russians that left?
All liberals, and good riddance. A lot of them started to come back.
>What about the convicts released into society after service?
Ukraine also released prisoners during the war. I would be worried about that.
Dead people do not need pensions paid. However, dead young Russians also will not be fathers to kids. This said, there are people who predict Russia will be facing continued decline of population even if the war has ended. The Russians that left will very unlikely come back, unless there will be a major Amnesty, out of fear to be prosecuted of having left Russia at a bad time. It is also possible, if the war prolongs, that Russia wil start to conscript female soldiers because there will be a strong disbalance of woman and men after the war. Not only due to deaths but also because more men than woman left the country for good. Maybe Chinese men will travel Russia to find a woman, when China has a disbalance (more men) opposed to Russia (more woman). But even if that happens, it will take a lot of time for Russia to come back to a growth path, because trust is damaged. And trust is a driver to a lot of things including stabilization of currency, acquiring foreign labor and of course foreign investment. Possibly it will take a sort of a Marshall-Plan to help Russia putting the aftermath of the war behind.
She could tell you that with fewer workforce welfare is decreasing - especialy in the long run 😅
Denis Manturow just officially announced there’s a shortage of 160’000 workers in the military industrial complex!
@Alexandra Prokopenko : you should talk more slowly because you often repeat the same words. Thanks a lot for this very interesting interview though !
As Europe likes to say: "As long as it takes!"
That all changed today with implementing secondary sanctions on the small vtb banks helping russia finance the war and circumvent sanctions. as you can see there is a run on the russian banks now, and the russian stock exchange callapsed.
A country can only prop up their GDP by squandering its savings manufacturing weapons for a pointless war for so long. Eventually its savings run out.
You should check the french stock exchange.
at least other countries are smarter than Germany and don't buy more expensive energy from America.
Longer than UK can remain financially viable.1
Excellent analysis. Indepth analysis
Western think tanks have been elaborately and skillfully lying to readers and listeners since their inception. When they arrive in the real world, perhaps they will see it with their own eyes.
China will need Russian cars... what is she talking about??? 🎉🎉🎉
Train cars?
The Indians, Chinese, Iranians, Saudis and Russians must develop world leading oil and gas academic and commercial technologies.
He has already started going bad in Russia already
1000 years
Thanks for this good analysis . Normal a country grows while producing booms at great scale . The problem is that this situation can not remain long time
You reap what you sow ! 😉🤗😂
As Alexandra said, "Russia is in crisis mode". They are getting by now, just barely, by making trade-offs that will cost them much more in the long run. It's never a good thing to be economically cut off from the wealthiest economies on the planet. The future looks very bleak if they keep down this path, the only question is how sudden or gradual the decline will be.
that changed today with implementation of secondary sanctions on the small vtb banks in china and india turkey and others that were helping russia finance the war or circumvent sanctions. as you see there is a run on russian banks now and the russian stock exchange callapsed.
@@leogetz-rf1kfThe RUSSIAN stock exchange has collapsed so much THAT IT HAD SUSPENDED ALL TRADINGS IN$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$, but in the YUAN Instead.What a colossal collapse,EH?
The answer is: as long as he’s at power
Even if Putin was not the president, why believe the Russian parliament would have a different policy. The Russian parliament almost in its entirety and, based on recent elections, over 80% of the electorate absolutely support Russia in its actions in Ukraine against the proxy American / NATO forces.
When a threat is seen to be existential, such as this American lead action against the RF, a country will persist in its military defences as a major priority. I don’t believe for a moment that Russia is on the brink of collapse.
@@khunmikeon858 it’s so tempting to operate with some imaginary substances as ‘NATO threat’, ‘proxi American’, ‘Russian parliament’ or ‘Russian elections’. RT vocabulary is deep in your mind, so deep it has constructed alternative reality.
For more than 20 years all the institutions you take for democratic and independent in Russia - parliament, elections, polls on public opinion - they’ve been substituted by fake imitations. Even the Constitution court is just a brunch of putin’s administration, not talking about media.
All tools of power in Russia are concentrated and manipulated from one center, and they all work for one and only goal - to keep this particular man in power. All the hydrocarbon incomes come through the chain of puppet oligarchs and close personal friends.
It’s just a criminal clan which has its own state as a feeding base.
And this clan is the only real threat to the existence of Russia. And as it has became obvious for the last two years - for the rest of the world.
Tldr;;; for as long as it takes... Go woke for broke ..
Great interview: In WW2 very heavy investment in US war production helped develop US industrial capacity and help the US gain a technological leadership which lasted decades. The US ended the war with a debt of 118% of GDP. Russian debt in 2023 was about 15% of GDP - so Russia can borrow the entire current military budget (about 8 - 10% of GDP) for about a decade before reaching the US debt level at the end of WW2. However, Russia doesn't seem to be as self sufficient economically and they have a significant demographics problem which wasn't present during WW2.
And ukraines population and demographic is better then russias ? why even mention those things when ukraine will run out of manpower ay before russia. Or are you suggesting someone else to go fight ? lile europeeans ?
If investing an absurd amount of money in the military was a recipee for economic growth, North Korea would be one of the richest country on earth. The USA benefited from its position post-war as one of the world superpower and the relative weakness of the european powers which industries had been ravaged during the war and owed the US huge amounts of money.
We can also note that the dollar became the reserve currency in 1944 (arguably 1931, but more officially in 1944). That helped quite a lot too.
All that to say I wouldn't bet too much on a post world war 2 effect for Russia once this war is over. Even in case of a russian victory.
Who in their right mind would loan money to Russia? This war has really spotlighted the Putin regime's lack of respect for laws, property rights, & treaty obligations, as businesses, airplanes, patents and trademarks, etc., have been expropriated or treated like toilet paper. If you don't believe me, ask someone who owned Russian stocks before the war. Ask them if they believe Russian bonds would be a good investment. They will give you a strange look.
I understand why you might think Russia could afford as much debt as the US, but you are very wrong. Russia does not have the same starting position at all. It starts with the demographics, goes on with growth, continues with law and regulation and does not end with an unstable government.
@@polarvortex3294My thoughts exactly.
I think the Russians are going to hold as long as it takes, as their existence is at threat.
Their existence….?
A lot of Russian trolls on this channel.
Nobody was treating them, all was going reasonably well for them had Putin kept his head. Now you will see China will quietly take over, what a fecking mess he has got Russia into
@@ronliber4135from mafo
yep, that whats putin wants them to believe :D Its clearly peak north korea look a like competion, as in st.peterburg international economic forum they spoke about nuking europe and no mention about biggest company in russia losing money and crashing. Good example how crazy and stupid the russian mentality is.
Maybe due to the language barrier: I don’t find her thinking very deep. She brings interesting points of view but none of them is explored in depth. The whole interview feels all over the place.
He has already inflicted economic pain for his people. Taxes are raised and inflation is up. 😅😅. Russia is in a war economi. Money and people literally goes up in a big bang and smoke. He only has payback if he can steal Ukrainian rescources.
And even then, rebuilding conquered Ukraine will be a money sink for decades because there will be no Western involvement and no expectation of growth.
A Russia that wins is an isolated Russia whereas a Russia that loses can begin to recover and to mend relationships.
STEAL?Stealing: The " unfreezing" of SOVEREIGN RUSSIAN MONEY,that's stealing.Let me see: At the completion of all hostilities Russia wins controll of Ukraine,that holds $ 12 trillion in natural resources,WE ON THE OTHER HAND,BEHAVE AS " BUMS" looking for loose change.The world now,ONLY HAS 2 SANE LEADERS reacting to current affairs,to benefit their people.
not really. So far the economic pain is mostly in the EU, and Ukraine. The russians have 6% of their GDP in defense and less than 2% of the population in the armed forces. Hardly a war economy so far.
Putin addressed the people
We saw it on utube
China buy oil..gas..wheat..corn..from Rusia in big quantity😂
How long..? Until he runs out of people to fight...!
Lol. So who run out of weapons, ammunitions n people now?
"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to 'uck things up."
-Barack Obama, 2020
Food will be problematic cause men are in the army, fuel is burning or going to the army, investment is gone to the army, and so on.
Not really, but who cares anyway.
Until his oil well empty
🎉🎉❤
Interesting to hear how the situation looks like in theory. But if Putin has got “enough money” why doesn’t he pay the inflation compensation (8%, hidden inflation is much higher) for the police force anymore ? And why does he have to raise taxes?
She is not talking about theory. She is just looking at different aspects. You are both right.
@@frederikzinn6568 Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Russian central bank, raised interest rates from 7 to 16% to fight inflation last year. She announced this his will be temporary until inflation comes down. Last week at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum she said inflation is growing and she doesn’t see an end of this process. That means interest rates will have to raise further. Not indicators of a healthy economy.
@@frederikzinn6568 Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Russian central bank, raised interest rates from 7 to 16% to fight inflation last year. She announced this his will be temporary until inflation comes down. Last week at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum she said inflation is growing and she doesn’t see an end of this process. That means interest rates will have to raise further. Not signs of a healthy economy.
Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Russian central bank, raised interest rates from 7 to 16% to fight inflation last year. She announced this his will be temporary until inflation comes down. Last week at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum she said inflation is growing and she doesn’t see an end of this process. That means interest rates will have to raise further. Not signs of a healthy economy.
putin used up his reserve fund and put the russian budget in deficit, and is now printing roubles to finance his war with the lack of revenue coming in. its why inflation is going up in russia quickly now. also printing roubles to spend 35 percent of budget on war creates problems as you dont get back tax revenue to the russian economy for the capital expenditure of 1 billion in artillery shells that are destroyed in ukraine, or a 3 million dollar tank that is destroyed in ukraine, or 6 million dollar calibre missiles that are destroyed in ukraine. you dont get economic growth or tax revenue going to russian economy from that for the capital expenditure to create weapons and goods for war. basically its russian state pays factory for weapons or ammo or goods for war, it gets destroyed and the capital spent is gone. no tax revenue coming back.
She started out by saying she was wrong. And now we are expected to believe her. What happened to her job .and who's paying her now.. but year year she thinks. Aha aha. She did say some good stuff. But I'm suspicious well she did put out some good facts. Remember she admitted to getting the war wrong. So her perdition could be wrong.. then she said it's possible. Ha just because you can't do it doesn't mean he can't. Blar blar.
you are winning aren't you?! 😂😂😂
you of all people dont know it
Не беспокойтесь о русском народе. Русские не хотят жить хорошо, они хотят чтобы их соседи а особенно украинцы жили не лучше их.
Rossyian Economy Grows,
So More and Longer
And Wider Spread!
Its crazy or whatever
He is actually winning the fight in Ukraine and in foreign policy. Now in 2024 Belarus and NK will be nuclear states , Vietnam wants at least nuclear power, Iran will also now have nuclear weapons in the future .
Winning? By what metric. Map looks like a stalemate for the past year. Compare the economy of a typical Russian "ally" to any nation in NATO and they come up short. Poland is a powerhouse compared to Belarus. NK cannot even build reliable weaponry and is regarded as one of the most backward nations on earth. Vietnam actually has more connections with the West as a hedge against China (who has cut off most of their river water and replaced it with pollution).
Any nation could have nuclear weapons. Most choose not to. Making a bomb is 1942 technology (first criticality experiment). 1942. Let that sink in. No computers. No calculators. No transistors even. 1942. Someone among Iran's scientists is giving the mullahs just enough success and keeping them from having a working bomb. They have the fuel, assembly is nothing.
I know that I shouldn't be saying this BUT!!!
ALEXANDRA is STUNNINGLY BEAUTIFUL..
Isn't it 4th largest econ in world now up from 6th right... how come that wasn't noticed
For how long it takes
That's what Germany said in WW1 but at a certain point the suffering and devastation to a country is just too much, especially for Russia which can end the war any day it wants by ending its invasion.
R's invasion.. try SMO..
Hello. Well, before the invasion, Germany was paying billions of Euros for the Rusdian gas and crude. I guess you must have forhotten, eh?
And now Germany is paying much more for these things. Congratualtion: you played yourself...
The assumption that Russia is a junior partner is naive and an easy cliché, China is getting a lot from Russia and Russia is shaping Chinese long-term policy, which appears to be beneficial to both nations and the global south.
Naive? Make no mistake .. Russia is the junior partner. If China demanded that Russia stops the war tomorrow, Putin would “do his duty” and pull back all troops. He NEEDS China. You think Putin visit to North Korea wasn’t first approved by Xi? You think weapons sales by North Korea wasn’t approved by Xi? Give your head a shake! Nothing happens in North Korea without China’s approval first.
China's long term policy towards the global south seems to be to threaten war against a whole bunch of countries from which it wants to seize territory and to spend vast amounts of money on a belt and road initiative that is not going well.
I like this woman she is honest and competent, she however followed the instructions of the NGOs who sponsored her career, a bad decision.
According to the World Bank and IMF, on a ppp basis, Russia pulls into 4th largest economy ahead of germany and good growth is projected for 2024. Inflation is in check, and the BRICS+ SCO and other payments are in place and working well. Domestic non-war goods manufacturing is up and most factories producing war machinery and some munition parts are dual use so they easily switch between uses quite easily. Trade with China for domestic goods is on the rise and doing well as is trade with India and other countries around the world. So, Russia will by far outlast however long the Collective West can actually last, which isn't very long. 😊 (psst, don't hold that general dynamics stock for very long as it will drop sharply in value within 24 months! LMAO)
Hahaha! God, that is all So incorrect!
China, India, Brasil and more than 100 other nations are on Russia's side. Don't forget this fact.
Ha ha ha…
Russia's main advantage is that it is currently waging war and destruction among its neighbors and not at home. The Russian population would start to understand what they have been engaged in when Ukrainian ballistic missiles begin to bombard vital economic facilities in Moscow and St. Petersburg… Given the size of the country, it is impossible to protect the entire territory…
The same applies to European facilities and locations. And of course also for the US military.
@@katz4930 voici la liste des grandes villes en Europe :
Moscou, Russie : 20 215 638 habitants.
Paris, France : 15 054 800 habitants.
Istanbul, Turquie : 14 657 434 habitants.
Londres, Royaume-Uni : 14 372 596 habitants.
Rhin-Ruhr, Allemagne : 10 642 890 habitants.
Randstad, Pays-Bas : 8 366 078 habitants.
Milan, Italie : 8 247 125 habitants.
Madrid, Espagne : 6 475 872 habitants.
Saint-Pétersbourg, Russie : 6 290 174 habitants.
Barcelone, Espagne : 5 407 264 habitants.
Laissons de côté les villes américaines et du royaume uni. À ton avis, qui restera debout après un échange de bombes nucléaires ?
@@katz4930 Russia intervened unilaterally to defend Russian populations allegedly inside the neighboring country against imaginary violence, or at the request of Bashar, against its population: destruction by Russian aerial bombardment of the city of Aleppo. These annexed provinces more or less close to its borders, for example South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Western Syria, still occupied by the Russian army, Crimea, and part of Ukraine…
The United States intervened -- without a Russian veto in the United Nations Security Council -- in accordance with a resolution of this council, or, otherwise, it was in self-defense against a terrorist organization which had attacked the United States on its soil: Afghanistan, Iraq, Serbia, Syria…
It is therefore very different from Russia, and in fact not comparable. It was inaccurate to say that American armies have waged war and wreaked destruction on its neighbors in the same way that Russian troops have done in Georgia and Ukraine (not to mention Syria).
Inflation is a problem everywhere not only i Russia. She have no clue about geopolitics. She is too much centered around Rusia, because the problems she describe can also be applied to the west. This war cost hube amount of money to the west. But she don't care about that.
A long time.
Just look at Russian History.
*It feels as if the video cannot develop any new knowledge and only explains what is already generally known.*
How exactly would this video develop new knowledge? That's a really strange statement.
@@midwesttraveler2485 If the video title is: "If the Video title says "How Long Can Putin Afford to Wage War in Ukraine?" then we must be able to infer from it that they have, for example, carried out a study and analyzed data. Then they could actually say something about the topic and contribute new insights into mass murder.
@tomschi9485 Not really. That's only your interpretation of it. It could just be a discussion on facts that are already known, which most interviews end up being. Topics covered could be economic ability, manpower, and political will. Not all these points contain data that can be analyzed.
Maybe you'd be better off explaining what you mean by "develop new knowledge."
I disagree completely, a lot of very interesting and new aspects.
❤❤Objective❤❤observation❤❤by an insider❤❤who knows what she is talking about ❤ 18:57
Extremely interesting in that it provides another view on the puzzle palace that is today's Russia.
But, the economic pain is already there.
Where? In the US? Where we keep printing $ out of thin air? A loaf of bread costs 4 F-n dollars! Used to be about $1.79 4 years ago.
@turtleman5111 I understand. But note that the "printing out of thin air" issue for fiat currencies is pretty much everywhere. Russia, China, US...
My point was that the people and companies of Russia are already feeling the economic pain. Their base rate is around 20%, inflation 7%, taxes are higher, pensions are crap, losing youth to war and brain drain, to top their demographic losses... They are now a war economy and thus must produce for war, so in fact, it is better for them to stay in war. They are a big country. It will take a decade for them to actually feel this war on their waller in such a way that people really suffer...
But not disagreeing with you on the US, I am a believer that US national debt size is the most important calamity in our near and mid-term future.
yep, in the EU that's clear.
If wishes were horses usnato would ride wake up and surrender
Until usd and euro collapse and gold comes back as international trade currency
Sure, keep dreaming
That's how it works Anthony read your economic history
@@johnnagle7702 don't go Gray waiting for the collapse of the dollar
China is there and India
How old are you..?
Russia is self-sufficient in agriculture, metals, and oil. In theory, they should be able to fight for a long time. It depends what sacrifices the populace tolerate.
Well last time they were 'comfortable' with losing about 30,000,000?
The support of China means sanctions have little impact
Russia is investing something like 17% of GDP in this war, what means they can only pay for essentials.
Because Russia is so large it has a lot of infrastructure, that infrastructure need maintenance. You can postpone maintenance five or maybe ten years. But will start to pile up, crumble and repairs become more expensive. If you don't paint your bridges in time, they start to rust and need to be replaced.
1 in 13 bridges in the USA is in poor condition and at risk of collapse. According to CNN
@@JesterEric The US made a stupid decision not investing in infrastructure and that will be their downfall. Europe has fantastic infrastructure, just a lot less growth in the last two decades.... that was the trade off.
Russia will have both, bad infrastructure AND a bad economy. And if the US can't keep up with maintenance of their infrastructure Russia definitely can't.
First thing Alexandra does is inform us that she had no idea if happenings in Russia.
Why would anyone believe any of her analysis now?
Um, you can extrapolate from experience... I bet you think you know how badly the Ukrainians are doing in the war but you have no source on the inside of their military.
100 years😅😂
Ok
this is an economic version of Baghdad Bob 🤦♂️ how does Carnegie explain that World Bank stats show that Russian economy is now #4, ahead of Germany and Japan? total BS
The World Bank has no means to verify Russian statistics. Russian economy is doing as good as Russia says it's doing.
Nonsense.
Despite its huge population Russia is at best tenth in the world for GDP.
And manufacturing a lot of military equipment and supplies to be destroyed or used up quickly in Ukraine may add to GDP numbers but certainly is not a sign of prosperity.
And it's very naive to believe economic data or any information from the Russian government.
I don't know why some international organizations are that naive.
Russia seems to be restricting ATM withdrawals to protect the ruble. That will lead to a complete collapse of confidence and the replacement of the ruble with the Euro or dollar. Russian ppl will eventually revolt.
Keep dreaming. The world is turning away from using the dollar as the reserve currency. India just agreed to buy 350 million barrels of Russian oil per month. Payment is to be made in rubles, not dollars. More than 90 nations are trying to join BRICS
They are doing the same in the west?
@@johnnagle7702 OK Ivan. Best get back to the Pravda propaganda show now.
DW, another mouthpieces of western mainstream media 😅😅