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Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
Russia
เข้าร่วมเมื่อ 26 ม.ค. 2021
The Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin is home to the world’s leading experts on Russia and the wider region. The center’s scholars and digital media platform, Carnegie Politika, deliver independent analysis and strategic insight that are not available anywhere else. The Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center focuses on major policy challenges across the entire region in the wake of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
Assad’s Downfall and the Consequences for Russia in the Middle East | Gabuev, Notte, Grajewski
Russia has had a strong military presence in Syria ever since 2015, bolstering the regime of Bashar al-Assad and pushing back the rebels. But in the space of a few days this month, the rebels were able to take major cities including Damascus and overthrow the government. Assad was forced to flee the country and seek refuge in Moscow. What does this mean for Russia, which had invested a lot of resources in Syria and used it as a bargaining chip in the power play in the Middle East? What will the fallout be from this sudden change of political climate?
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center, to unpack the sudden fall of Assad’s regime and what it means for Russia to lose its stronghold in the Middle East.
Audio: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/carnegie-politika-podcast/syria-russia-war-influence?center=russia-eurasia&lang=en
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Hanna Notte, director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center, to unpack the sudden fall of Assad’s regime and what it means for Russia to lose its stronghold in the Middle East.
Audio: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/carnegie-politika-podcast/syria-russia-war-influence?center=russia-eurasia&lang=en
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Russia’s New Ballistic Threat and Its Consequences for the West | Alexander Gabuev, James M. Acton
มุมมอง 372วันที่ผ่านมา
After the long-awaited decision of the United States to allow the use of Western-made weapons against internationally recognized Russian territory, Russia retaliated by launching an Oreshnik missile, which it claims is a newly developed intercontinental ballistic missile. With many details about the new missile still unknown, the danger of possible nuclear escalation looms over the world, leavi...
How Will Trump’s Presidency Influence Russia’s War Against Ukraine? | Alex Gabuev, Alexander Baunov
มุมมอง 320หลายเดือนก่อน
For many, the recent victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election looks like a clear win for the Kremlin. Trump has promised to stop the war in Ukraine swiftly-presumably on terms more favorable to Moscow than to Kyiv. But does the president-elect really have what it takes to convince Moscow to stop its relentless assault on Ukraine? What steps does he need to take to attempt to se...
The Dissipation of Russian Influence in Moldova | Alex Gabuev, Maksim Samorukov, Paula Erizanu
มุมมอง 4892 หลายเดือนก่อน
Russia is using agents of influence, propaganda, vote buying, and the Orthodox Church to retain influence in Moldova. With a presidential election looming, the people of Moldova must decide whether they want to continue the EU-integration course led by President Maia Sandu, or whether to spurn it and pursue a different path, all while Russia tries to seek and invent new ways to remove agency fr...
What the 2025 Budget Says About the Russian Economy? | Gabuev, Prokopenko, Kolyandr
มุมมอง 7K2 หลายเดือนก่อน
Podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, and by Alexander Kolyandr, a financial analyst and non-resident senior scholar at the Center for European Policy Analysis, to discuss the state budget for 2025/26 and the prospects of the Russian economy in coming years. Follow us on Telegram: t.me/CarnegiePolitikaEn Despite predictions ...
How Are Russia and Ukraine Adapting to the Kursk Incursion | Gabuev, Massicot, Gusev
มุมมอง 3433 หลายเดือนก่อน
Podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, and independent researcher Alexey Gusev to discuss the unprecedented turn of events at the frontline following Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk region. In August, the Ukrainian armed forces managed to pull off an incursion into Russian territory. Unlike previous forays executed by small parami...
NATO at 75: Ukraine, Russia, and the Future of European Security | Alex Gabuev, Mary Elise Sarotte
มุมมอง 1.4K5 หลายเดือนก่อน
Russia’s unjustified aggression against Ukraine has revitalized NATO, and this new energy was on display at the recent 75th anniversary summit of the alliance. While there were some long-term decisions to boost European deterrence against the Russian threat, other key questions were left unanswered. Can Ukraine become a full member of the alliance? When can this happen? The open-ended confronta...
How to Survive as an “In-Between” European State | Alexander Gabuev, Tom de Waal, Rosa Balfour
มุมมอง 4185 หลายเดือนก่อน
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Carnegie Europe's director Rosa Balfour and senior fellow Tom de Waal to discuss Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Moldova, and Serbia, which find themselves caught between Russia and the EU. The war in Ukraine has left a group of “in-between” European countries more vulnerable and insecure than ever before. These countries-Armenia...
What's Happening Between Russia and North Korea? | Alexander Gabuev, Andrei Lankov
มุมมอง 6K5 หลายเดือนก่อน
Putin has visited North Korea for the first time in 24 years. The visit reflects the two countries' deepening alignment amid Pyongyang's active support for Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Andrei Lankov provides insights into the signals being exchanged between Moscow and Pyongyang, and addresses the question of whether a real alliance might be on the cards. Carnegie Politika podcast host A...
How Long Can Putin Afford to Wage War in Ukraine? | Alexandra Prokopenko
มุมมอง 133K6 หลายเดือนก่อน
Follow Carnegie Politika on Telegram: t.me/CarnegiePolitikaEn How long can Putin afford to continue his war in Ukraine without inflicting economic pain on his own people? With state spending on defense now exceeding investment in sectors like education and health, some analysts are predicting a painful economic hangover after the war ends. Alexandra Prokopenko, a Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center ...
What Impact Will Russia's New Defense Minister Have in Ukraine | Gabuev, Massicot, Prokopenko
มุมมอง 2K7 หลายเดือนก่อน
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alexander Gabuev is joined by Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at Carnegie Russia Eurasia, and Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine and Russia's economic stability following Moscow's government reshuffle. Following his fifth presidential inauguration, Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved a new...
Is Putin Prioritizing Regime Survival Over Fighting Terrorism | Gabuev, Mark Galeotti, Vera Mironova
มุมมอง 1.7K8 หลายเดือนก่อน
Carnegie Politika podcast host Alex Gabuev is joined by Mark Galeotti, director of Mayak Intelligence, and Vera Mironova, an associate fellow at Harvard's Davis Center, to discuss the consequences of the March 22 terrorist attack on a Moscow concert hall and its consequences for regime stability. Responsibility for the March 22 terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall has been claimed b...
Is Western Apathy Trapping Belarus in Russia's Embrace? | Alexander Gabuev, Artyom Shraibman
มุมมอง 5928 หลายเดือนก่อน
Four years ago, Belarus reached a point of no return in its delicate balancing act between Russia and the West. Desperate for support, Alexander Lukashenko's regime has become increasingly reliant on Moscow since 2020. Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has further solidified Belarus's position as a close satellite state. What does this mean for the future of Belarus? What roles do Lukashe...
Navalny's Legacy for the Russian Opposition | Alexander Gabuev, David Herszenhorn
มุมมอง 96010 หลายเดือนก่อน
Navalny's Legacy for the Russian Opposition | Alexander Gabuev, David Herszenhorn
What’s the Secret of the Russian Economy’s Resilience | Alexander Gabuev, Alexandra Prokopenko
มุมมอง 3.8Kปีที่แล้ว
What’s the Secret of the Russian Economy’s Resilience | Alexander Gabuev, Alexandra Prokopenko
What is the ideology of Putin and his regime?
มุมมอง 126ปีที่แล้ว
What is the ideology of Putin and his regime?
Learned Indifference: How Russian Society Has Gotten Used to War | Gabuev, Kolesnikov, Volkov
มุมมอง 1Kปีที่แล้ว
Learned Indifference: How Russian Society Has Gotten Used to War | Gabuev, Kolesnikov, Volkov
Мощнейшие 585 просмотров демонстрируют как всем не по*уй
no one cares about russians missiles anymore.. their entire military capabilities have been exposed as a joke.
Sadly you do not sound as if you genuinely know much about the situation. It's so easy being an armchair commentator thousands of miles away...posing as truth.
Sempre quando é possivel temos a tradução para o Portugues ficamos mais interessados agradeço esse complemento JG
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Baunov is insightful, one of Carnegie's best.
I love these sort of channels. We need more of them in these crazy times.
So Putin will continue his war? So he will overplay his hand and turn his little pyrrhic victory into defeat! How truly pathetic!!!
Thank you Emil, appreciated Martas views on the early post election issues in Georgia and Zaurs more regional insights from Baku
No way is kursk worth risking the east for POWs. That dont make sense. Then to say its to have assets to exchange when trump forces negotiation is even more laughable. Are you saying kursk is going to bring back 1991 borders? good luck with that.
at least alexy admits the kursk incursion does not back up the narrative of making russians feel the pain.
The greatest mistake was first to make Russia from friend to enemy by unnecessary expanding of NATO and second provoking war by regime change in Ukraine. Now Russia is inevitably the winner!
Bardzo ciekawe🇵🇱very interesting 🤔👍
Excellent podcast! Wonderful discussion! I hope for a good election day moving towards progress, integration and the rule of law.
Imagine how much better life would be in Russia if they put the effort and money that they put into invading neighbours and subverting countries into the health and welfare of their own people instead?
а северо корейцев всё таки выслали на рос-укр фронт. а маловероятно было!
Russia is growing?!?!?! What a hell people! Let Saudis drill more, and maybe they will, and we talked again...let west sanctions those who let comodities enter Russia via their borders and we talk again, let Trump NOT win and i think all will change. Ah yes, remember the map of China the CCP last year did? Wait for the backstab from China with Vladivostok area (former Manchuria) where almost the people there is almost all Chinese.
the big picture ? wanna hear something different ? maybe Russia’s economy is not the main thing here ? what is “sovereignty” ? is Ukraine a sovereign country ? Cuba doesn’t have the same sovereignty as the USA. they nearly learned the hard way (in the 1960s) that USA gets to decide that they cannot have long range missiles. Mexico and Nicaragua got the message. they choose peace not full scale sovereignty … Ukraine & Georgia are learning the very hard way that it’s not up to them. Russia has said “no NATO membership or even pre-NATO training & weapons donations” 2014. Russia was patient - gave them a chance … 8 years with kindness & diplomacy. Ukraine can’t win … it’s either peace on Russian terms or its nuclear war. Ukraine has little use for the Donbas anyway - it’s a pile of rubble. they could give it to russia (along with Crimea) to save humanity. because peace matters. a lot. lockheed-martin or raytheon profits matter less …
found the bot.
Прокопенко лгунья, вот почему её не зовут на российские передачи
By spring 2026 if not earlier the Russian government is going to be running into a wall in a number of areas. It will have completely exhausted its stores of army equipment accumulated over 80 years. Its central bank may have increased the base interest rate in Russia to 30% or higher and of course regular people and businesses will be charged an even higher rate. With interest Russian debts will double in amount owed in just 28 months and become five times as much in just five years. Would you borrow $100,000 if that debt would increase to $50,000 in just five years? The Russian government will have exhausted its liquid assets in its national welfare fund & will need to start printing new rubles to pay its bills, something that will drive up inflation even more. And Russia's manpower situation will get worse and worse. Russia already has an extremely low unemployment rate and Russian governments need to pay men more and more money to get them to volunteer for the Russian military. Putin can bring in more mobilizations but for every soldier he mobilizes two Russian men may flee the country. Reportedly he is mobilizing another 133,000 men over the next few months but that could mean that 270,000 more Russian men flee the country so the Russian workforce would lose an additional 400,000 workers when it already has a massive labour shortage. And Russia's military will likely lose 133,000 men as casualties over the next four months so by the end of January the Russian military will be back to the same number of troops as now except as well the Russian workforce will have fallen by 400,000 men. In this video they talked about Russia dramatically increasing its military spending in 2025 but how can Russia spend that extra money if there are no more available Russian men to sign up for the military or to work in arms factories? Russia could buy a lot more weapons from other countries but from where? China is afraid of western sanctions. Iran has its own war to worry about and may soon experience Israeli attacks on its military industrial complex. North Korea is .....well, North Korea. Russia's basic infrastructure is deteriorating and Russia can't just keep ignoring that. Last winter a lot of Russians spent the winter freezing in the dark in their apartments. That's going to get woree every year that passes and its clear that as long as the war continues Russia won't have the workers to maintain its infrastructure. Russia is going to have a very difficult time in 2026 if it tries to continue the war that year.
It's not about us influence anything that says Russia in it anything that has the word Russia in it about economy or anything to do with anything you have to say to take it with a grain of salt
But you three were never in Russia? No one pays taxes in Russia!!!!
Out of curiosity, did you used to live in Russia?
@@RandomAussieGuy87 oh ja, I was a director of on OOO in that lawless land. So weird, there are lawyers in Omsk. But none will actually support you. There is a reason that Ikea closed there. I lived there for three years.... What a trip....
These ‘economists’ say whatever their employers want to hear. They never offered any solutions to the problems because they don’t know much.😊
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I am always wondering if people understand what a budget is 🤔 the validity of a budget depends of how reliable and realistic are the assumptions and forecasts used. Starting a discussion about a budget should always be on how those assumptions and forecasts used make sense
The only reason why Russia manages to keep the budget balanced is that they calculate with an increase in state revenue of twelve percent, which is completely unrealistic considering that the world market price for both oil and gas is under pressure. Since Russia doesn't produce any goods that anyone is willing to buy now that their weapons export has crumbled, they are completely dependent on their natural resources to finance the war and these are mainly exported to China and India at a price far below the global market price.
Its staggering 2 here so called educated people discussing the Russian budget as it is written on paper ...😅 I didn't here any mention that this non oil gass revenues is actually a fantasy and lies
Non oil and gas revenues maybe partly true, if it corresponds to what they spend from the « wealth fund » (gold, in particular). They say that it is new taxes, but I doubt that : it is really massive, and I doubt companies benefits were so high they could afford to pay so much money. In any case, interest rates and sanctions will kill the industry in Russia in the medium term, probably in 2025. The time where the health fund will run out. Another dream here : Russia is « rebuilding » its army… they lost the professional army they had in 2022, they rebuilt it using contracts and hardware from the USSR warehouses. If they had to rebuild it a second time, they will be down to what they can build. And they loose tanks and guns in Ukraine in two months what they can build in one year. They shoot the missiles they build when they have a sufficient number. They are already spending what they can obtain from their « allies », North Korea and Iran. Even the Air Force is eroded, aircraft’s wear out and they cannot be replaced fast enough. This « new » army will be equipped with golf carts and motorbikes.
'Staggering to here so called educated people' 🙄
Russia is rapidly running down on its reserves and hardware(machines, buildings, infrastructure,etc.). It is a question of time when Russia reaches the rock bottom and has become a poor country like the situation at end of the sowjet union.
Can you find Russia on the map?
Yes,it has a stolen washing machine strapped on its back.
@@johnsmithers5044 washing machines are some kind of fetish for you?
@@johnsmithers5044 is this what you dream of while going to sleep?
I've heard estimates of 2026/27. Maybe this is them going for broke (literally) to get a better negotiating position for an expected Trump win.
Usa became banana state , all that baturina, burisme etc. I can understand if botswana doing that but usa ?
Thank you for making an effort to do these podcasts in English for the European and global audiences.
Every day that Western leaders refuse to fully support Ukraine, their internal and external political stability disintegrates and NATO's deterrence credibility falls apart. This policy or lack of it seems suicidal.
For me it's all about the children. Never forget all of the Russians who abused children and their families in Ukraine. From the mass graves (in Izium) to the stolen children. Now if Ukrainian parents don't become Russian citizens and go to fight against their brothers and cousins Russia will take their newborn children at birth. How many children are now sex slaves? They cannot be allowed to win. Speaking of Izium. What did those 414 people see? The Russians thought it was better to murder them and bury them all in a mass grave instead of letting them testify. Whatever they saw must have been truly horrific. At minimum I'm guessing rape and torture. With an average of 150 war crimes per day who knows what they did. If Russia wants to sign a treaty they must first prove they will stand by one. If Russia or Putin wants to negotiate, start with your original written agreement. Putin on January 28, 2003 signed the border agreement. He's signed several agreements he doesn't honor. Pull back all of their troops back behind their original border and then you can start negotiations. If they don't show they will honor the original agreement how can you expect them to honor any further agreements. It's our war to lose. Russia canNOT win. Unless we choose to not support Ukraine of course. It is on us in the global West to pick the world we want to live in. Choose wisely. Thanks. Glory to Ukraine. God Bless Ukraine and her people. 🇺🇦🇺🇸
Shallow analysis as usual from Gabuev.
Ланьков прекрасен на любом языке, но смысла интервью на английском когда у обоих родной русский нет никакого
много людей говорят по английски во всем мире и смогут понять этот подкаст
Muscovy 's future is as a Chinese resource colony.
34:55 This a prime example why Kaja Kallas is not suitable for any leading diplomatic role. Imagine similar rhetoric coming from Russia about Estonia. Would we ever tolerate such deliberate commitment to an eternal belligerent attitude?
0:39 _"Unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.."_ Thank you for saving my time. Damn, I still stuck around to see what the other person had to say. And I have to admit, it was funny to hear her spend 25% of the time defending her own virtue by making sure everyone knows she thinks Russia bad/ Ukraine good. This sort of moral approach does not fit well with the profession of historian.
NATO is the AGGRESSOR, no doubt about that, LOOSING the war against . Globally NATO is a failure and will disappear in time.Greetings from norway
The West is gunning for Putin. Why? Because he stole back all the resources the Western backed oligarchs bought under Yeltsin. And he waited until they were fully modernized & operational before he stole them. He stole 280 BILLION USD worth of investment from 'Project Hammer' that was initially sanctioned by George H.W. Bush. That is why they are gunning for him. And if you don't believe me, look up 'The Black Eagle Trust'. These people have NO clue on the real reason for the war!
Living in the past
Please explain!
Don't forget to massage that like button. Nothing is everlasting and perhaps this way we will get few more episodes of that brilliant podcast.
Спасибо за интервью! Очень интересно!
лет ми спик фром май харт
RUS INVAIDEN
Hey white supremist guy,tell us who the rest of the world is🤔.
Such a great podcast, thank you! Lankov is a top-notch expert, good job
Thanks, this was enlightening.
Brilliant! Thank you so much!
Благодарности Владу Горину за наводку на подкаст Карнеги. Голос Александа просто создан для радио и подкастов. Подписался на всех платформах)
Russia can afford it much longer than the collective West. The US has a national debt of $35 Trillion, and the EU has a collective debt of 17.3 Trillion euros. Russia has virtually no debt. The collective West does not have the manufacturing capability that Russia has. Russia outproduces the West by at least a factor of 4. The IMF and the World Bank have recently reported that on a PPP basis, Russia is now the 4th largest economy in the world. The new minister of defense is an economist; not a military guy. His mission is to balance military production with commercial production. To be fair, 2022 was a difficult year, but Russia adapted quickly.