Hey Pat, thanks for this video. it really helped me understand a bit more about the ebbs and flows of a baseball season and the role of luck etc. Where you've shown elements of luck via the PYT and then for individual players with stuff like their BABIP and FIP/ERA, is there an equivalent analysis we can do for fielding performance? I currently have a 55 rated shortstop who (according to OOTP calculator) is a 1.5 WAR player based on his fielding ratings, however he's currently got a negative zone rating...he's only young, was a scouting discovery and is the 66th prospect in baseball, so I dont want to get rid of him or drop him down at the moment. Would be interested to hear your thoughts!
There isn't really an equivalent for fielding, unfortunately. But, fielding numbers can be even flukier in small samples. In real life, it can take several seasons for defense metrics to have a big enough sample to be meaningful. I'm not sure if exactly the same holds true in OOTP, but you can certainly see weird things in small samples. Sometimes a month or two into the season, a decent SS will be negative in zone rating but finish the season as a positive. So, it's way too early to judge this guy. I'd give it at least a season. But, perhaps as a 55 SS, he'd be a dynamite 2b or SS? A 55 is fine, but SS is one of the positions where it's worth thinking about putting a 65+ player there. But, it's too early to write him off just because of the negative zone rating unless it's been a season or more.
@@pfholden Alright thanks, this is his first season in the majors too after doing pretty well in one season of AAA. Sorry, i didnt explain that clearly his overall player rating is 50 with a potential of 55 but his shortstop rating is a 60. Here's a screen grab, let me know what you think! i.imgur.com/9aeG1f5.jpg
Actually, most of what you say only applies to near average teams (adjusting for your team obviously makes it work fine). You can build teams that can win more 1 run games (and note that your 1 run record should be largely reflective of your team's record, not just close to .500). Basically, teams with better/deeper bullpens will win more 1 run and extra innings games. BABIP can be higher than .300 for teams with high contact skills on average (for example, I have a save where my team sustains at or above .330). FIP may not be reflective of what your pitchers should achieve if your defense is really good or really bad. You showed Taylor Rodgers for an example of a player with unlucky BABIP, but I'd have to disagree. His real life seasons and 2022 season skewed his career data, and if you look at his OOTP seasons (excluding outlier 2022) his BABIP is much, much closer to .347. He was probably unlucky, but by more like 10-15 points. That said, I definitely agree with your overall assessment of luck here, and as long as you account for the quality of the surrounding team, you can figure out if that's the problem. I would also like to add that the single most common issue causing this is a bad scout. If your team isn't performing up to scouting expectations, replace your scout immediately. Nicely done here, this will absolutely help a ton of people.
All points taken, thanks for the context. I totally agree on BABIP, what I said would have to be taken very generally. And same with FIP, I agree with your context but, generally speaking for people who may not want to nerd out on the details, I think my definition can work. Not sure about that one run game theory though! Most teams regress to around .500 on this from all research I’ve come across, at least in real life. Thanks again for all the context, I largely agree, and especially agree about the scouting. Having a good scout is a make or break thing.
You're absolutely right about 1 run games in real life, but because the OOTP engine isn't totally reflective it works differently. Basically, in real life, you almost never see a starting pitcher reach the later innings, so it's down to your relief core and offense to make the difference. Since the difference between the best and worst relief teams is much less than offense or starting pitching, teams will play much closer to .500. However, in OOTP, it's possible to build an utterly dominant relief core that skews your winning percentage in 1 run games. Also agree about your simplification, the people building the teams I'm talking about probably already know this stuff lol.
Interesting, is that your theory on 1-run games being different in OOTP than real life or have you done/seen a study on that? Because while I think some of the reasons you mention may play into why real life teams regress to .500, much of it has to do more with the luck of close outcomes than the skill level being more even. I don’t think good teams win more one-run games than average teams on the whole. I think good teams aren’t in as many one run games as average teams.
I have not yet run a study on this, but that's to come. You're right about the randomness, but my theory is different. Better teams translate those 1-run games into bigger wins, and translate bigger losses into 1-run games. In other words, 1-run record is only slightly affected, but they effectively replace games they'd lose in bigger margins with games they win in bigger margins. Again, that's more related to offense and starting pitching, while 1-run records themselves are more related to bullpen. Another thing to look at is thoroughly dominant teams, ones that win 125-130 or even more games a year. In that case, you'd likely see a more skewed record.These are of course all theoretical, and I'll test them out sooner or later. Regardless, teams should be between .420-.600 in 1-run games, pretty much no matter how good or bad their teams are.
@@pfholden haha yep! it was exactly what I was looking for I appreciate it, plus when I saw the title I was like THATS ME! haha anyways appreciate it that should help out alot. I think my teams main issue was our defense stinks plus we were just unlucky with injuries and stuff. My team all of sudden busted off a 10 game winning streak and boom I am 1 game up in the division. Love it. Thanks again.
Haha I’m good. He’s only under team control through this season and I replaced him with Carlson who is an MVP candidate and signed for like 4 more years
![สาวเมืองเพชร - ธีเดช ทองอภิชาติ [Official MV]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/kEt7F9PvO3I/mqdefault.jpg)
Just wanted to comment and let you know your videos have helped me tremendously while starting my ootp journey. Thank you a ton!!
Thanks for the comment!
nice! i just asked on another video if u would make a tutorial that covers pitching luck and its covered here. sweet.
Bro you read my mind lol i was looking for this video xD
Hope it helps, dude
Great video and great information!!!
Glad you liked it, thanks!
Hey Pat, thanks for this video. it really helped me understand a bit more about the ebbs and flows of a baseball season and the role of luck etc. Where you've shown elements of luck via the PYT and then for individual players with stuff like their BABIP and FIP/ERA, is there an equivalent analysis we can do for fielding performance?
I currently have a 55 rated shortstop who (according to OOTP calculator) is a 1.5 WAR player based on his fielding ratings, however he's currently got a negative zone rating...he's only young, was a scouting discovery and is the 66th prospect in baseball, so I dont want to get rid of him or drop him down at the moment.
Would be interested to hear your thoughts!
There isn't really an equivalent for fielding, unfortunately. But, fielding numbers can be even flukier in small samples. In real life, it can take several seasons for defense metrics to have a big enough sample to be meaningful. I'm not sure if exactly the same holds true in OOTP, but you can certainly see weird things in small samples. Sometimes a month or two into the season, a decent SS will be negative in zone rating but finish the season as a positive. So, it's way too early to judge this guy. I'd give it at least a season.
But, perhaps as a 55 SS, he'd be a dynamite 2b or SS? A 55 is fine, but SS is one of the positions where it's worth thinking about putting a 65+ player there. But, it's too early to write him off just because of the negative zone rating unless it's been a season or more.
@@pfholden Alright thanks, this is his first season in the majors too after doing pretty well in one season of AAA. Sorry, i didnt explain that clearly his overall player rating is 50 with a potential of 55 but his shortstop rating is a 60. Here's a screen grab, let me know what you think!
i.imgur.com/9aeG1f5.jpg
Looks like a solid prospect. His range is awesome for SS but his arm may hurt him there. He’d be a great 2b.
Actually, most of what you say only applies to near average teams (adjusting for your team obviously makes it work fine). You can build teams that can win more 1 run games (and note that your 1 run record should be largely reflective of your team's record, not just close to .500). Basically, teams with better/deeper bullpens will win more 1 run and extra innings games. BABIP can be higher than .300 for teams with high contact skills on average (for example, I have a save where my team sustains at or above .330). FIP may not be reflective of what your pitchers should achieve if your defense is really good or really bad. You showed Taylor Rodgers for an example of a player with unlucky BABIP, but I'd have to disagree. His real life seasons and 2022 season skewed his career data, and if you look at his OOTP seasons (excluding outlier 2022) his BABIP is much, much closer to .347. He was probably unlucky, but by more like 10-15 points. That said, I definitely agree with your overall assessment of luck here, and as long as you account for the quality of the surrounding team, you can figure out if that's the problem. I would also like to add that the single most common issue causing this is a bad scout. If your team isn't performing up to scouting expectations, replace your scout immediately. Nicely done here, this will absolutely help a ton of people.
All points taken, thanks for the context.
I totally agree on BABIP, what I said would have to be taken very generally. And same with FIP, I agree with your context but, generally speaking for people who may not want to nerd out on the details, I think my definition can work.
Not sure about that one run game theory though! Most teams regress to around .500 on this from all research I’ve come across, at least in real life.
Thanks again for all the context, I largely agree, and especially agree about the scouting. Having a good scout is a make or break thing.
You're absolutely right about 1 run games in real life, but because the OOTP engine isn't totally reflective it works differently. Basically, in real life, you almost never see a starting pitcher reach the later innings, so it's down to your relief core and offense to make the difference. Since the difference between the best and worst relief teams is much less than offense or starting pitching, teams will play much closer to .500. However, in OOTP, it's possible to build an utterly dominant relief core that skews your winning percentage in 1 run games. Also agree about your simplification, the people building the teams I'm talking about probably already know this stuff lol.
Interesting, is that your theory on 1-run games being different in OOTP than real life or have you done/seen a study on that?
Because while I think some of the reasons you mention may play into why real life teams regress to .500, much of it has to do more with the luck of close outcomes than the skill level being more even. I don’t think good teams win more one-run games than average teams on the whole. I think good teams aren’t in as many one run games as average teams.
I have not yet run a study on this, but that's to come. You're right about the randomness, but my theory is different. Better teams translate those 1-run games into bigger wins, and translate bigger losses into 1-run games. In other words, 1-run record is only slightly affected, but they effectively replace games they'd lose in bigger margins with games they win in bigger margins. Again, that's more related to offense and starting pitching, while 1-run records themselves are more related to bullpen. Another thing to look at is thoroughly dominant teams, ones that win 125-130 or even more games a year. In that case, you'd likely see a more skewed record.These are of course all theoretical, and I'll test them out sooner or later. Regardless, teams should be between .420-.600 in 1-run games, pretty much no matter how good or bad their teams are.
Yeah man, good stuff. Your catcher video ruled, looking forward to more.
HA dude! nice hahah you even titled it the same hahaha thank you good sir!
that was your question, right? I couldn’t find the comment when I scanned back for it
@@pfholden haha yep! it was exactly what I was looking for I appreciate it, plus when I saw the title I was like THATS ME! haha anyways appreciate it that should help out alot. I think my teams main issue was our defense stinks plus we were just unlucky with injuries and stuff. My team all of sudden busted off a 10 game winning streak and boom I am 1 game up in the division. Love it. Thanks again.
dont be sad, hays is fragile!
Haha I’m good. He’s only under team control through this season and I replaced him with Carlson who is an MVP candidate and signed for like 4 more years
Aaron Judge sucks in every OOTP game