"De-Risking" goes both ways as China dumps US Treasury positions, now at lowest level since 2010

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 1 พ.ค. 2024
  • China has sharply reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, and is now at levels last seen over a decade ago.
    The profound shift in sentiment is apparent on message boards of Chinese financial publications and articles. Professionals and executives in China share strong opinions about the high levels of risk that US Treasury and US dollar holdings entail: risk of seizure, inflation risk, default risk, and duration risk.
    Resources and links:
    China unloads more US Treasury bills
    www.scmp.com/economy/china-ec...
    Visual Capitalist, China's trade partners and trade balances
    www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/c...
    Is China selling off its US Treasury and dollar bonds? It's complicated.
    • Is China selling off i...
    Reuters, China's robust commodity imports confound weak economy narrative
    www.reuters.com/markets/commo...
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ความคิดเห็น • 305

  • @yaoliang1580
    @yaoliang1580 หลายเดือนก่อน +117

    The US has overcapacity in printing money

    • @HughJass-jv2lt
      @HughJass-jv2lt หลายเดือนก่อน +7

      😂😂

    • @marsaeolus9248
      @marsaeolus9248 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

      Funny and true!

    • @netrubbish
      @netrubbish 21 วันที่ผ่านมา

      LOL so true

  • @davidlee9493
    @davidlee9493 หลายเดือนก่อน +144

    The whole world needs to derisk from the U.S.A.

    • @qwqw-hj1lo
      @qwqw-hj1lo 20 วันที่ผ่านมา

      JU. S. A

  • @TAL142
    @TAL142 หลายเดือนก่อน +199

    Of course China has to de-risk. US has frozen Iranian and Russian asset. And US basically stole Afghanistan bank reserves. Yet somehow Afghanistan growing food feeding their people and banning poppy will have negative economic and humanitarian consequences according to some western media.

    • @Ahoooooooo
      @Ahoooooooo หลายเดือนก่อน +37

      Don't forget Venezuelan gold . They confiscated that gold sitting in a UK bank when Venezuelans were starving .

    • @sciagurrato1831
      @sciagurrato1831 หลายเดือนก่อน +30

      Libya, anyone remember? God remembers.

    • @seanchen4746
      @seanchen4746 หลายเดือนก่อน +15

      @@sciagurrato1831 who has gotten all the Libyan gold after the war?

    • @willengel-vs8ht
      @willengel-vs8ht หลายเดือนก่อน +12

      one branch of the empire is fighting drug imports, another is importing drugs using its own fleet of transports. if you look at the data of opium production the year the empire was in Afghanistan there was marked increase in opium productions.

    • @directxxxx71
      @directxxxx71 หลายเดือนก่อน +18

      US also froze Myanmar's 1 billion reserve too

  • @astroganov
    @astroganov หลายเดือนก่อน +80

    We are witnessing the US overcapacity of debt production 😂

    • @ZincFold
      @ZincFold หลายเดือนก่อน +8

      And overcapacity of LGBTQ+++++ 😂

    • @Matt-xz6cj
      @Matt-xz6cj 27 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Not just debt; youve got overcapacity of lies and disinformation

  • @angryranger4552
    @angryranger4552 หลายเดือนก่อน +97

    Janet Yellen says China is producing too much, but then China answers back. America is producing too little for the consumers. So the excess production still is consumed. Like a runner asking the leading runner to slow down, and the leader telling those behind him to run faster. America is like the hare who takes a nap and the turtle overtakes him!

    • @unglaubichuberlieber8048
      @unglaubichuberlieber8048 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

      thumb up, it is also true that america is producing...and no one is willing to buy because of the
      price...thus the cost of producing whatever

    • @DW-op7ly
      @DW-op7ly หลายเดือนก่อน +9

      @@unglaubichuberlieber8048
      Americans consume more than they produce that has been the case for decades upon decades upon decades
      Plus the current generation has lost that pioneer ethos that would make the previous generations roll over in their graves

    • @danielli9167
      @danielli9167 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      America is like a turtle and takes naps too.

    • @dcauninaivonarck5266
      @dcauninaivonarck5266 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      "America is producing too little". Well, that's not entirely true.
      US certainly produces an excessive amount weapons and democracy, and has been deceptively selling them or forcing them upon the rest of the world.

    • @rap3208
      @rap3208 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      not a turtle who overtakes him but a turtle that turned into a hare faster than him.

  • @ongsengkee2530
    @ongsengkee2530 หลายเดือนก่อน +52

    Why must the richest nation on earth morph into a thief?

    • @yaoliang1580
      @yaoliang1580 หลายเดือนก่อน +42

      They got rich from stealing

    • @willengel-vs8ht
      @willengel-vs8ht หลายเดือนก่อน +24

      where is Iraqi gold? Libyan gold? Ukrainian gold?

    • @ZincFold
      @ZincFold หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      It all began with the theft of native American land. When hasn't it stopped stealing.

    • @yaoliang1580
      @yaoliang1580 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@willengel-vs8ht stolen by the criminal thats immune from investigation and prosecution

    • @ramonching7772
      @ramonching7772 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

      Because they have overspent for more than 40 years.

  • @jayjaywoodland
    @jayjaywoodland หลายเดือนก่อน +40

    world needs to de-risk their reserves from being confiscated by us...
    de-dollarization is a must.

    • @ongsengkee2530
      @ongsengkee2530 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Confiscated is too gentle a word. Looted would be better.

    • @netrubbish
      @netrubbish 21 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@ongsengkee2530 try ROBBERY

  • @user-qd8yg1fp7i
    @user-qd8yg1fp7i หลายเดือนก่อน +53

    Let me tell u; the world will not see a hyperpower as humble and as meek as the Middle Kingdom.

  • @pbworld7858
    @pbworld7858 หลายเดือนก่อน +14

    If de-risking is what USA wants, then de-risking is what it'll get. Be careful of what you wish for.

  • @jackchiu7560
    @jackchiu7560 หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    "De-risking" is simply a term for a "slow de-coupling" until a more appropriate time. Now that the U.S. wants wars on every front, economic and technological, it is now time for China to rid of all U.S. debts as well as the majority of the $3.2 trillion of its foreign exchange reserves to strengthen its gold holdings to bolster the de-dollarization. And that is not enough; China should also withdraw the $3 trillion of investments and deposits in American banks to prepare for the dark days ahead as well.

  • @zhan9207
    @zhan9207 หลายเดือนก่อน +38

    China has been working and investing for years to de-risk from the US, wheras the US says a lot but does little. The time is on China's side

    • @ZweiZwolf
      @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      China's government always wanted to de-risk, but Chinese companies didn't take it seriously until Huawei got sanctioned. At that point, things accelerated with no turning back.

  • @ZweiZwolf
    @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน +45

    Your first chart is really good, but it needs geopolitical context. China was buying Treasuries through 2012 and was roughly stable through 2014, when the US sanctioned Russia over Crimea. At that point, China started to slowly unwind their position. In 2022, US sanctions accelerated, "freezing" $300 Billion of Russian sovereign assets, at which point China got very serious about liquidating their holdings to prevent potential sanctions. At the current pace, China will be under $500 Billion by 2026, and completely out by 2028. $1.3 Trillion worth of US debt formerly held by China needs a new buyer, and that's pushing interest rates up. While the returns are high, the risk is vastly greater. Because China has seen the US seize assets, there is no guarantee the US won't do so again.
    Therefore, China instead chooses to convert risky Dollars into "safe" physical gold, and taking it back to China. As an early mover, China is optimizing the conversion of Dollars to gold.
    The most significant use of China's Dollar surplus is to make low cost loans to BRI partners to purchase Chinese infrastructure.

    • @pbworld7858
      @pbworld7858 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      Let Japan buy the debt then. They seem to love it.

    • @sinic1978
      @sinic1978 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      ​@@pbworld7858the Bank of Japan has stopped buying American debt. Only Japanese banks and insurers are still buying them. Sooner or later the Japanese banks and insurers will stop buying them when they realize they have to get out before the house collapses.

    • @rap3208
      @rap3208 หลายเดือนก่อน

      China is most probably just letting their bonds mature. Actively disposing their US bonds will have repercussions that will damage and be destructive even to themselves.

    • @ZweiZwolf
      @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน +7

      @@jameschalkwig787 I don't think China has a specific timeline for Taiwanese reunification; however, I suspect that the upper bound is probably 2048 - 99 years after the KMT were driven off the mainland. The longer China waits, the more military power and technology China accumulates. At some point, Chinese military power becomes so overwhelming, that Taiwan has no alternative other than surrender.

    • @thisiskevin1000
      @thisiskevin1000 หลายเดือนก่อน

      And foreign currency swaps with the rest of the world

  • @believein1
    @believein1 หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    Once the US eventually defaults on payment, their supply of borrowed money will stop and this ship will crash harder than anyone expected.

    • @JohnCarey-bw1cd
      @JohnCarey-bw1cd หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Would love to see it😅

    • @ericshang7744
      @ericshang7744 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Their defaults on payments is never a problem. What you can buy with that payment is in question.

    • @user-in2km7pb9u
      @user-in2km7pb9u 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      They cannot default, they will just debase the currency even more just by sheer minting

  • @ncchew3356
    @ncchew3356 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    Withering down its American bond holding until it completely disappears is an inevitability for China as there is a high probability of American defaulting on Chinese holding of American treasury bonds.

  • @thinkingaloud5379
    @thinkingaloud5379 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    The Chinese are not the only ones talking about de risking from US assets.All foreign countries are having that conversation given how the US seized the Russian assets.

    • @kenlee1416
      @kenlee1416 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Given the stupidity of so many world "leaders" and financiers (outside of the US), they'll gossip about it for a while then forget about it and maintain status quo. Witness how the entire planet of fools still accept USD after a massive 25% US money creation in just 2020. USD is stronger than ever today versus so many currencies.

  • @May-cz2uo
    @May-cz2uo หลายเดือนก่อน +44

    Sell T bills. Buy gold.

    • @andrewlim7751
      @andrewlim7751 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      We're talking about trillions, physical bullion can't absorb that kind of liquidity and volume.

    • @andrewlim7751
      @andrewlim7751 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Paper gold doesn't matter.

    • @sinic1978
      @sinic1978 หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​​@@andrewlim7751China is selling Treasuries and sending the proceeds to Europe by depositing the cash in European banks. This is a stopgap measure while silently buying gold and other industrial metals. It will take years to get rid of all the USD.

    • @ZweiZwolf
      @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@andrewlim7751 China takes physical delivery of their commodities. China has container ships arriving at US ports every day. It's nice to fill them with gold and commodities for the trip back.

    • @DW-op7ly
      @DW-op7ly หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@andrewlim7751
      ​​⁠China has an 820 billion dollar trade surplus with the world every year
      Holding that much debt is the right amount The US FED crashed their credit markets selling about 600 to 700 billion in debt off its balance sheet over a 2 year period
      Plus China has been doing this for over a decade we are just catching on right now
      👇
      China’s Gold Reserves Unveiled: Investigating Claims of Secret Hoarding and the Alleged Discrepancy
      JANUARY 9, 2024
      Based on these calculations, Frisby estimates that China has at around 33,000 tons of gold, with at least half being state-owned. That state-owned portion (16,500 tons) is double what the U.S. holds.
      If China admits to the U.S., “We got twice as much gold as you,’ that’s tantamount to a declaration of war,” according to Frisby. The yuan would become more valuable, gold would become more valuable, and China would become the leader of both of these assets.
      OxfordGoldGroup

  • @Gopherminator
    @Gopherminator หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    Selling bonds to buy gold

  • @teac117
    @teac117 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    We're probably burning USD during Qingming in lieu of the joss paper. I think it's cheaper. :P

  • @cabasadefogo9533
    @cabasadefogo9533 หลายเดือนก่อน +22

    West lake is so dreamy!

  • @AIPretendingToBeHuman
    @AIPretendingToBeHuman หลายเดือนก่อน +35

    In an alternate world where we had a US educated expert leading China instead of Xi, China would have $6 trillion in US Treasuries and thus would be absolutely dependent on the US. In this world, China would be the world's 3rd largest economy by PPP and 10th by nominal GDP. America would be celebrating China as the world's biggest democracy. Instead the Chinese took the US $ they earned and invested it into commodities, mines, companies, infrastructure in the Global South -- and here we are. In hindsight it looks like genius, the amazing part is the Chinese started the execution of the Belt and Road more than a decade ago, and the planning must have started a decade earlier to answer the question -- "What are we going to do with all these US $"

    • @ZweiZwolf
      @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน +13

      You don't need an imaginary alternate world when India exists. Just compare India and China, and you can see the difference.

    • @mtcnew8353
      @mtcnew8353 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Thank god that China did not select the western democracies. Just look at the western countries’s performance, which one is worth following? The election process is fraught with problems. The countries are controlled by the special interest groups, never for the benefits of the people. And it’s hopeless, the system can not be changed.

  • @M.M.Alam.Liberty
    @M.M.Alam.Liberty หลายเดือนก่อน +52

    China is going through their own internal opposing views. There is a group in China who is pro US and they have never allowed China to unwind and DE-RISK. This Gang must be shown door so that China can proactively manage its risks. Both countries have the right to derisk. 👍

    • @user-kv8tt4xu3u
      @user-kv8tt4xu3u หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      old xi is too soft ,but that is what make he good。at end of the day if you cant change your mind change the people。

    • @rap3208
      @rap3208 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      @@user-kv8tt4xu3u You guys can't have it both ways depending on waht you're arguing for, either he is a dictator, or he is too soft.

    • @user-kv8tt4xu3u
      @user-kv8tt4xu3u หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@rap3208 well that is Chinese thinking,if you want to be a leader,you have to be soft and tough even dictator sometimes,if you want seek the office you have to act like this ,we dont like some Biden or trump style person to be our leader,that is so pathetic dont you think。

    • @rap3208
      @rap3208 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@user-kv8tt4xu3u Maybe, but the chinese is used to an authoritative government, it is all they know - from the emperors, warlords, etc.. Even the shortlived Republic of china was authoritative. Authoritarian rule is all they know and want, they want their government strong.
      As long as the government gives them freedom to have a home, family and a way to make a living, and protection - they will give support to that authoritarian rule.

    • @dyrectory_com
      @dyrectory_com หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      There are some non-Chinese people telling people what type of gov't the Chinese are use to having / should have. Yin and Yang... soft when you need be and tough when the situation calls for it - that's the same side of the coin. Moreover, it's not a 50/50 split - the situation dictates when soft or hard is needed. ☯🦉

  • @BrandyHeng007
    @BrandyHeng007 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    US 8000 metric ton Gold Reserves equivalent to 800 billion Dollars, the same amount owing to China, in short it belongs to China 😂

  • @georgejesson1944
    @georgejesson1944 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    Foolish to hold Monopoly hostage money

  • @1millionstartups
    @1millionstartups หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    A big part of China's US treasury selling dating back to Trump era was because so many foreigners (and wealthy Chinese) wanted to get their money out of China (at 6.8 RMB to $1), causing an US$ cash crunch that forced China to liquidate at a loss. China then readjusted the exchange rate to make it more expensive to convert RMB to US$. Then Biden administration raised US interest rate to the roof, forcing China to continue selling US treasury at a loss. Somehow China survived this onslaught (and winning back all the investors that fled China the last few years) but US is now dealing with high rates it couldn't lower (or world investors will move out), high inflation (including higher fuel and labor cost caused by Biden administration), and a speculative bubble that can pop anytime.

  • @yingxu7908
    @yingxu7908 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    You’re very patient and true to yourself,thank for your hard work

  • @MetaView7
    @MetaView7 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    Make no mistake . . . *Decoupling* is on schedule.

    • @astroganov
      @astroganov หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Which side will you choose? Goods producer or debt producer? 😂

    • @helokitty991
      @helokitty991 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@astroganov It is interesting that you don't want the goods producer win if you are another good producer, but also you don't want the debt producer's currency.

    • @astroganov
      @astroganov หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@helokitty991 Murika is not a goods producer anymore. Movies and debt. That's all.

  • @kenlee1416
    @kenlee1416 หลายเดือนก่อน +11

    China and Hong Kong collectively held US$998 billion of USTs at at February 2024. Still close to a $trillion, when it should be well below $500 billion.

    • @DW-op7ly
      @DW-op7ly หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      China has an 820 billion dollar trade surplus with the world the vast majority of that would be in USDs
      I think they are doing just fine with limiting their dollar/debt exposure
      👇
      China’s Gold Reserves Unveiled: Investigating Claims of Secret Hoarding and the Alleged Discrepancy
      JANUARY 9, 2024
      Based on these calculations, Frisby estimates that China has at around 33,000 tons of gold, with at least half being state-owned. That state-owned portion (16,500 tons) is double what the U.S. holds.
      If China admits to the U.S., “We got twice as much gold as you,’ that’s tantamount to a declaration of war,” according to Frisby. The yuan would become more valuable, gold would become more valuable, and China would become the leader of both of these assets.
      OxfordGoldGroup

    • @user-yq5wo5eu2f
      @user-yq5wo5eu2f หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      It should be well below zero but for charity, let them have a few billions.

    • @kenlee1416
      @kenlee1416 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jameschalkwig787 The fact remains that whomever has been managing China's US treasury holdings (USTs) had been way too optimistic about US-Chn relations.
      Let's assume they sell off or let mature $400bn of USTs by 2028, that still leaves $600bn (+HK's holdings) for potential appropriation.
      On Taiwan, assuming the status quo with little pockets of provocations by US, it doesn't seem China will "invade" UNLESS, there is some event that compels them to - perhaps... a (rigged) referendum that favours Taiwn independence or perhaps US setting up a proper military and naval base with plenty of troops and mercenaries from jpn, S Korea, Philippines, Aus, etc.
      US debt is sky high and that hugely increases the likelihood the US will inflate away like crazy in the coming years. Now look at how the US fed created 20% to 25% of all USD in circulation, just in 2020, BUT the whole world still accepts USD!! No, the USD still has many decades left before a possibility some will abandon or not accept it.
      On BRICS, don't know how reliable component members are. Certainly not India. South Africa is frankly a poorly run place, Brazil's government is not pro-US, but it has plenty of politicians not currently in power, that are.
      Never underestimate the globalist tribal cabal that dominates the US/West, to carry out subversive activity worldwide and to indoctrinate vulnerable minds to "self-hate" and follow the globalist's doctrines. The cabal have perfected the art of subversion over the centuries (esp since the 1910s) and have been very successful at it in so many countries including in parts of China (HK and Taiwan).

    • @DW-op7ly
      @DW-op7ly หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@kenlee1416
      Difference a lot of that US Treasury debt that is being printed up is being put on the US FED Balance Sheet
      in Q3 of 2019
      The US FED was bailing out those TOOBIGTOFAIL banks in their repo markets once again… less their credit markets seize up once again
      A few things we learned since the 2008 subprime crisis
      Buying for US debt is not unlimited.
      In 2013 the US FED had to buy 71% of the newly issued external Sovereign debt by the US Treasury
      That Quantitative Easing (QE)debt that was soaped up/printing of money, that debt does not disappear
      Since we know from Q3 of 2017 to Q3 of 2019 the FEDs bright idea was to allow 50 to 60 billion of the Agency Debt and US Treasury Debt it soaped up during QE to slowly mature each month, off the FEDs balance sheet. Quantitative Tightening (QT)
      Where the US Treasury would issue new corresponding debt for the public to buy. Where with this QT selling they managed to dump about 600 to 700 billion in debt on the American people… as the American people are the biggest buyers of US Sovereign Debt
      That QT selling ended during Q3 of 2019 Because that selling of debt ended up freezing up the repo market
      Just like when it happened in 2008/2009 during the subprime crisis
      Thus the FED balance sheet went from 4.5 trillion to about 3.8 trillion.with that selling from 2017 to 2019
      But then the FED had to come back in QE 2.0 and buy that Treasury debt again, all that they dumped and more
      Last I checked they ran that FED balance sheeet back up to over 8 trillion. Now it’s back to around 7.8 trillion
      Wait you might ask Agency debt is internal debt not supposed to be backed by the US Government
      Well the USA has had no issue with taking private internal debt and turning it into External Sovereign Debt backed by the US Government and the American people
      Something the Chinese might have been tempted to do with the Junk Bonds issued by those Chinese Property Developers
      That were a hot commodity the last few years, sought after by sophisticated foreign investors
      In short the Chinese purposely deflated their real estate markets. Cut off money to its Property Developers. And didnt bailout foreign investors who took a risk buying those junk bonds
      While the USA left their real estate market to implode. Kept the money flowing to the companies and bailed out foreign investors who invested in private internal debt
      Yet we are complaining who is capitalist/communist
      👇
      As politicians call for taxpayer bailouts and a government takeover of troubled mortgage lenders Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae,
      FreedomWorks would like to point out that a bailout is a transfer of possibly hundreds of billions of U.S. tax dollars to sophisticated investors and governments overseas.
      The top five foreign holders of Freddie and Fannie long-term debt are China, Japan, the Cayman Islands, Luxembourg, and Belgium. In total foreign investors hold over $1.3 trillion in these agency bonds, according to the U.S. Treasury’s most recent “Report on Foreign Portfolio Holdings of U.S. Securities.”
      FreedomWorks President Matt Kibbe commented, “The prospectus for every GSE bond clearly states that it is not backed by the United States government. That’s why investors holding agency bonds already receive a significant risk premium over Treasuries.”
      “A bailout at this stage would be the worst possible outcome for American taxpayers and mortgage holders, who have been paying a risk premium to these foreign investors.”
      “It would change the rules of the game retroactively and would directly subsidize the risks taken by sophisticated foreign investors.”
      “A bailout of GSE bondholders would be perhaps the greatest taxpayer rip-off in American history. It is bad economics and you can be sure it is terrible politics.”
      FreedomWorks

    • @DW-op7ly
      @DW-op7ly หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@kenlee1416 btw the Chinese holding about 600 to 800 billion in US Sovereign Debt is just the right amount to be holding
      The Chinese trade surplus with the world is 820 billion dollars a year

  • @thehungergames8918
    @thehungergames8918 หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    Thank you Kevin 😃👊

  • @tomiputra3720
    @tomiputra3720 หลายเดือนก่อน +32

    I am surprise that China is still holding that many

    • @ZweiZwolf
      @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน

      China could have done a fire sale, they wouldn't get as much money. Instead, China is steadily reducing holdings by roughly -$300 Billion annually. They will be out of US Treasuries by 2028.

    • @DW-op7ly
      @DW-op7ly หลายเดือนก่อน

      China has an 820 billion dollar trade surplus with the world every year
      Holding that much debt is the right amount
      The US FED crashed their credit markets selling about 600 to 700 billion in debt off its balance sheet over a 2 year period

    • @mittao86
      @mittao86 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      And who's gonna buy all of it, you need other countries to buy it when China is selling it. UK and western countries have bought more, but far from enough.

    • @DW-op7ly
      @DW-op7ly หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@mittao86
      China does not have to sell that US Sovereign debt they can just allow that the US debt they own, to slowly mature off the books
      And then they don’t have to reinvest more into buying that US Sovereign Debt
      But it would be smart for China to keep about 600 to 800 billion in US Sovereign debt (use it as a wea pon or piggyback off of the Class action happy American “people” the biggest holders of that US Sovereign debt(directly/indirectly)
      Who ain’t about to let their American Government scr e www them over for 10s upon 10s of trillions of dollars
      The Chinese could just tag along as the USA is tied up in their courts unable to issue new debt less the proceeds be seized by the creditors the American “people”

    • @cb250nighthawk3
      @cb250nighthawk3 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      China must buy California with the 800 billion USDs. 😅😅😅

  • @reptilexcq2
    @reptilexcq2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I am sure US would not only de-risk but de-couple if they there is a possibility of doing it and if it is to their own advantage. The problem is they can't do it.

  • @dewinmoonl
    @dewinmoonl หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    one way to integrate in the goodbye video without you have to talk about it is to simply title the goodbye video. I find it very peaceful to watch!

  • @avg_ape
    @avg_ape หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thanks for the insight & videos. Also, the new "Goodbye" outtakes are a great touch. Keep up the good work.

  • @sinic1978
    @sinic1978 หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    The Gulf Arabs are the ones now lending to the US. They are also the ones making huge investments in the US. Good luck to them.

    • @jakeh5799
      @jakeh5799 10 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      I think they have to...Otherwise they risk the possibility of "freedom and democracy" sweeping their country 😁

  • @latiendaca1773
    @latiendaca1773 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Of course it goes both ways.
    Sometimes it’s better to be the first and sometimes it’s better to be the last. In the long run, we shall see

  • @Longcloud
    @Longcloud หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Hi Kevin, your channel is excellent,you deserve more viewers,I’m mentioning your channel to others as much as possible 👍

  • @polypoly7966
    @polypoly7966 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    You are of of very few commentators to point out net reduction can be selling or simply cashing out at maturity. Too many want a shock headline. As you say either way a new wealth store is being used.

  • @garyevergreen5035
    @garyevergreen5035 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Preparing for the collapse of Dollar system.

  • @willengel-vs8ht
    @willengel-vs8ht หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    to be quite honest, the empire has no real chance of re-paying its $34 trillion outstanding debts. the empire borrow new money to payoff its interest on old debts.

    • @alanc457
      @alanc457 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      China just needs its 0.8trillion back before everyone else. Who cares what others are owed

    • @sinic1978
      @sinic1978 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      ​@@alanc457as China and other East Asian countries exit the US Treasury market the Gulf Arabs move in and buy Treasuries. So China and other East Asian countries get their money back while Gulf Arabs take on the risks. Fortune favors China and East Asia.

    • @willengel-vs8ht
      @willengel-vs8ht หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@sinic1978 the Gulf Arabs bought short term treasuries to park their money from oil sales. they should learn their lesson when the empire seized Russian assets.

  • @darvidkoh2707
    @darvidkoh2707 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    China should reduce its holdings of US Treasury bonds to zero and replace it with gold which has risen steadily.

  • @wingkeeho5864
    @wingkeeho5864 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    The US has to de-risk from China by paying their debt. It does not appear that, in fact it is the other way round, so the US has no intention of paying their debt, it does not matter who the creditors are.

  • @kcthunder7682
    @kcthunder7682 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    True. If anyone sells the bond before it matures, one will take a very significant haircut due to the high yield, low bond value. If sells upon maturity, at least, they can get back the face value plus the interest

    • @kenlee1416
      @kenlee1416 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Better to sell at 20% loss than a likelihood of 100% appropriation.

  • @cheekhenliew7628
    @cheekhenliew7628 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Possible that China uses their excess USD as loans to the BRI countries, to pay up their USD loan and switch to RMB loan? BRI countries get lower interest loans, reduce reliance on USD (i.e. less affected by FED interest hike).. win-win for all except the US.

    • @ZweiZwolf
      @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      China has been loaning excess Dollars at low rates to BRI partners for Chinese infrastructure projects for quite a few years now. China then takes payment back in local goods / resources over the following decades. The West calls this "colonialism" and "debt trap diplomacy". While it has the broad feature of high tech for basic resources, it's not colonialism because it's structured around a voluntary debt that was mutually agreed upon, and presumably could be closed out if the client somehow gathers sufficient cash together. Furthermore, the high tech infrastructure that China provides generally raises the overall development of the client to make them more competitive globally - something that no colonial power ever did.

  • @Ludak021
    @Ludak021 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Criminally underrated channel with troves of information. Thank You Sir for doing all of this! Be healthy and keep us informed!

  • @DrXJ
    @DrXJ หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I'm glad that I came across this channel 🙏🤘

  • @yongzeehow2045
    @yongzeehow2045 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    US are living on borrowed money.
    Is it sustainable?

  • @wtf_usa5597
    @wtf_usa5597 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thank you!! 👏👏

  • @benetaue
    @benetaue หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    China smart not willing to take the haircut😂

  • @labandonaldhock80
    @labandonaldhock80 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Great insight!

  • @ckwong1533
    @ckwong1533 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Gold price is skyrocketing, guess where China surplus goes..

    • @debl5848
      @debl5848 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      China is not the only country buying gold. Many central banks are doing so too.

  • @rosstisbury1626
    @rosstisbury1626 หลายเดือนก่อน

    excellant . . as always

  • @melvinbarnett1910
    @melvinbarnett1910 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Private equity will purchase those debts by borrowing money from the public, thereby firing up the printing press to make more money.

  • @fayyaznoor1962
    @fayyaznoor1962 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Love the info and analysis.

  • @DarrenMalone253
    @DarrenMalone253 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Another great insight thank you 🤙

  • @hz240
    @hz240 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Respect to your persistence to grow this channel.
    Thanks for yet another daily triple dose…
    Ch1na’s shedding of U$ treasuries should not come as a surprise to anyone. The reckless spending and countless new fiat flooding the monetary system to fund their endless w@r campaign. Ch1na needs to de-risk from the U$ debtors and seek refuge in a sustainable monetary system ie, commodity and gold-backed currency. A trillion deficit every 100 days is a sign of a sinking ship.

  • @indibhart5731
    @indibhart5731 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Learn and move forward!

  • @realestatenow
    @realestatenow หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Russia holds this year’s BRICS’ presidency. Due to sanctions against them they are very active in pursuing a non-USD financial system. Non-political, decentralized, based on block-chain tech and “to serve countries, companies and individuals “! Until I saw your video talking about the mood in China about derisking I did not think China would be very keen on moving quickly away from the USD. I now think it will happen fast.

  • @garyhoward4064
    @garyhoward4064 หลายเดือนก่อน

    But aren’t they compensating by purchasing another type of bonds?

  • @misty671
    @misty671 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Nearly all US domiciled assest are over priced inc.stock and RE. Gold and BTC are the safest places for Western investors in light of sactions and the massive risks the US is afflicted with. 🇨🇦

  • @khenghoontay5763
    @khenghoontay5763 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Incredibly honest and intelligent ❤
    1:23

  • @kibakobo
    @kibakobo หลายเดือนก่อน

    I was just watching your old video posted las month.

  • @edwardlim7253
    @edwardlim7253 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thanks Kevin, I guess when the Collective West champions decoupling or de-risking from China or any country, it's inevitable that these countries need to mitigate and balance this risk..

  • @ramonching7772
    @ramonching7772 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    China sends the fruit of their labor to the US.
    The US then pays the Chinese with unpayable promissory notes.
    After receiving that promissory notes, the Chinese have another problem. How to dispose of the bad promissory notes..

    • @ZweiZwolf
      @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      China disposes of US Dollars in several ways:
      * buy gold and take physical delivery.
      * buy commodities and take physical delivery.
      * buy real estate.
      * lends dollars at low rates to BRI partners to purchase infrastructure, repaid in local goods & resources.
      There's obviously more going on, but those are the big ones. China has been stockpiling energy and food like crazy.

  • @namelesswarrior4760
    @namelesswarrior4760 หลายเดือนก่อน

    We all got to eat right? So, we all must try to find the right crops to plant.

  • @Skeleman
    @Skeleman หลายเดือนก่อน

    what is this background audio of a person talking that are in most of the videos.

  • @iraelliott8936
    @iraelliott8936 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What I've been hearing is the way the Chinese are dumping US bonds is by using them to pay for belt and road projects since 2020. The reason they are doing it that way is it takes longer for the US to know it was sold. Apparently the Chinese could unload as much as 80 billion in 2 days and it takes the US about a week before they know it was done. The theory is the Chinese could unload 240 billion before the US could freeze it. Not sure what kind of infrastructure they could spend that kind of money on though

  • @Ray-ov4jl
    @Ray-ov4jl หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    What is the background noise in your videos mate?

    • @ScoobieDoo-zy1rh
      @ScoobieDoo-zy1rh หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Subliminal religious text

  • @jacquelinemorgan2086
    @jacquelinemorgan2086 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Lovely scenery. China is paying attention to the US.

  • @martinwilby8942
    @martinwilby8942 หลายเดือนก่อน

    be good

  • @justme6275
    @justme6275 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    "De-Risking" ✌

  • @wcdirect9217
    @wcdirect9217 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    The actual amount is more than stated because indirectly they own as much as 3-4 times more. Hong Kong alone has 280 B of treasury and various other types of bonds. Each country that has a trade deficit with China will have some treasury in that country's name because it was purchased there.

  • @garylee9668
    @garylee9668 หลายเดือนก่อน

    really hate those politician. I wish China and U.S.A had good relationship like back the old days

  • @ericshang7744
    @ericshang7744 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What is that background deep voice?

  • @kevinl7173
    @kevinl7173 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Somebody has opened Pandora's box

  • @jerronng6036
    @jerronng6036 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Vassal may b forced to buy. Pinoy, zel... Etc

  • @krishanthavidane2737
    @krishanthavidane2737 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Am I the only one who heard someone else also speaking in the background throughout the video?

  • @syncmaster915n
    @syncmaster915n หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    China is just diversifying the risks of over investment in one area. Like you don't want to put too many eggs in one basket. Since 2013, part of the de-risking is in the Belt n Road Initiative. BRI is an investment you don't necessarily see a monetary return, but pays off handsomely in other soft power aspects.

    • @ZweiZwolf
      @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน

      BRI investments are loans, but they're typically repaid in local goods & resources converted to Yuan / Dollar value. That is, I lend $100 Million USD today, you use it to buy a port, bridge (or whatever), and then pay me back with $4 Million worth of cash or commodities every year for the next 30 years. In the mean time, you get a $100 Million infrastructure thing that you never could have done on your own.

  • @jackreacher8858
    @jackreacher8858 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Even China ' homeless ' got it better , a view to the sea LOL !

  • @lzeng78
    @lzeng78 หลายเดือนก่อน

    😮

  • @danielgriffin8132
    @danielgriffin8132 16 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The USA shouldn't be selling det anyway. We need to live with in our means and stop giving money 💰 away to other countries

  • @user-mm9xw5wv3p
    @user-mm9xw5wv3p 6 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Background chatter!

  • @christopherneil6117
    @christopherneil6117 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    The prayers in the background get louder with each video, it's harder and harder to hear what you're saying.

  • @buzzlightyear3715
    @buzzlightyear3715 หลายเดือนก่อน

    China may create a new currency for trade purpose, backed by gold. Or decouple RMB from USD and backed RMB with gold.

  • @pubguc6771
    @pubguc6771 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Illegally subject very denguers

  • @somsackvongsa7077
    @somsackvongsa7077 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Everyone work for $ work for U.S

  • @DragonYang01
    @DragonYang01 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    In fact, China is prepared for de-coupling from US. BRICS region is an alternative world for China and other developing countries. The de-coupling from China is recognised by EU to be impossible. I think it is true for US. However, only if China is fully prepared for decoupling, the treat of de-coupling from US would not stop.

  • @zulkanainbaharuddin2185
    @zulkanainbaharuddin2185 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Don't forget that Japan has dump more US Treasury securities than China. So don't be bias.

    • @rap3208
      @rap3208 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Not really, search engines are your friends.

    • @zulkanainbaharuddin2185
      @zulkanainbaharuddin2185 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@rap3208 Japan dump $30.8 billion of US stocks compared to China's $19.7 billion last year.

    • @rap3208
      @rap3208 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@zulkanainbaharuddin2185 Is that how you make conclusions? Get one case and then make a conclusion? very very stupid.
      At least get a specific span of time that will get you a more correct conclusion.
      i'll give you a hint get the peak holdings of China and compare it to now. Do the same for japan in the same time of span. Do your homewrok before you say anything.

    • @zulkanainbaharuddin2185
      @zulkanainbaharuddin2185 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@rap3208 I have.
      Japan have been doing it for sometime now much earlier than the Chinese.
      It's is bcos the narative in the US that China is the enemy & Japan is not. Focus on the China.
      A lot of other countries holdings of US Security Bonds & investments has decrease quiet substancially.
      It is bcos the US can freeze these countries asset & money and even confiscate which can have a high lost.
      Just like the West hasdone to Russia.

  • @user-ks3bh1xe5q
    @user-ks3bh1xe5q หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    China ought to be buying up much more precious metals and other industrial commodities.
    Additionally, China should be investing heavily in its own "new productive forces" as well as viable public listed companies in the Global South.

  • @Andrew-rc3vh
    @Andrew-rc3vh หลายเดือนก่อน

    I wish the UK would stop taking orders from the US and take advantage of this situation. We have a banking system in London that used to be trusted. If China wants to derisk from US liabilities then the UK must prove it is an independent nation, no longer tied to the EU so it would be a good hedge. The golden rule in engineering is no single point of failure.

    • @debl5848
      @debl5848 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      UK and USA tied to the hips.😂

    • @Andrew-rc3vh
      @Andrew-rc3vh หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@debl5848 This is why we are in decline. It got especially bad when the US loaned us that money after WW2.

  • @mauermeit-2565
    @mauermeit-2565 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Proverbs 03:36

  • @qake2021
    @qake2021 หลายเดือนก่อน

    ✌️✌️✌️✌️✌️

  • @russellcollins5692
    @russellcollins5692 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    You were being observed! Camera directly behind you.
    Be Good Be Very Good……

  • @WORLDPEACE2628
    @WORLDPEACE2628 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Rather China buys U.S bonds or not, won't have a tinge of effect on the value U.S bonds....Japan a lone can buy off those bonds own by China.....as along as the U.S greenback is the world's only reserve currency, then the U.S has nothing to be scared off! Relax!

    • @agamliandy7843
      @agamliandy7843 หลายเดือนก่อน

      And what's the reason the Japanese are selling their T bills as well?
      Even if they're a vassal state, they don't like the idea of being a bankrupt vassal state.

  • @marygem
    @marygem หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    So China doesn't want interest from invesment. 😊

    • @yaoliang1580
      @yaoliang1580 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      The conman will soon default

    • @user-ln5pi6zp2t
      @user-ln5pi6zp2t หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Interests are just more printed paper

    • @DW-op7ly
      @DW-op7ly หลายเดือนก่อน


      ​​⁠China has an 820 billion dollar trade surplus with the world every year
      Holding that much debt is the right amount in my opinion
      The US FED crashed their credit markets selling about 600 to 700 billion in debt off its balance sheet over a 2 year period
      Plus China has been doing this for over a decade we are just catching on right now
      👇
      China’s Gold Reserves Unveiled: Investigating Claims of Secret Hoarding and the Alleged Discrepancy
      JANUARY 9, 2024
      Based on these calculations, Frisby estimates that China has at around 33,000 tons of gold, with at least half being state-owned. That state-owned portion (16,500 tons) is double what the U.S. holds.
      If China admits to the U.S., “We got twice as much gold as you,’ that’s tantamount to a declaration of war,” according to Frisby. The yuan would become more valuable, gold would become more valuable, and China would become the leader of both of these assets.
      OxfordGoldGroup

    • @ZweiZwolf
      @ZweiZwolf หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      The value of Chinese gold is going up, and they're collecting interest on the BRI loans.

  • @johnlee5215
    @johnlee5215 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Where are they putting their trade surplus in if not U.S. dollars?

    • @joemartin6202
      @joemartin6202 หลายเดือนก่อน +11

      GOLD and other minerals

    • @winsonip4447
      @winsonip4447 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      Corporate Bonds

    • @tompell3032
      @tompell3032 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

      by buying gold, and stock piling on commodities and energy

    • @chualooong1737
      @chualooong1737 หลายเดือนก่อน +12

      BRI

    • @andrewlim7751
      @andrewlim7751 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Bullion doesn't have that kind of liquidity, it's BRI.

  • @Glory-to-God.
    @Glory-to-God. หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Is that a homeless encampment in the background 🤔

    • @user-ln5pi6zp2t
      @user-ln5pi6zp2t หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      It is a recreational cp site near the beach. See the sea?

    • @jeremyheung6582
      @jeremyheung6582 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Yes, the homeless who vacation by the seaside

  • @seawater1322
    @seawater1322 หลายเดือนก่อน

    love the reading of the Word in the background.

  • @user-sy4dx1hw8k
    @user-sy4dx1hw8k หลายเดือนก่อน

    It is obvious that the USA could do the same thing as they did to Russia. So, giving the USA the leverage by buying their bonds is not as safe as it used to be.

  • @ed1003
    @ed1003 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Kevin , you are a real American patriot. I saw your real pain in your heart! You really need to return US to save American. I saw you are so anxious and suffering while you stay in China!

    • @yaoliang1580
      @yaoliang1580 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      He won't khow if his children will back alive from school in the US

    • @sciagurrato1831
      @sciagurrato1831 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      If Kevin returned to the US, he’d be treated like any whistleblower. BTW, the second Boeing whistleblower just died.

  • @wu05354207
    @wu05354207 หลายเดือนก่อน