Zhongzhi & Country Garden after Evergrande mark grave crisis in Chinese debt, realty, shadow banking
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ธ.ค. 2023
- #CutTheClutter #China
Collapse of Zhongzhi and Country Garden, after Evergrande last year, mark China’s real estate debt & market collapse. In Ep 1363 of Cut The Clutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta explains what exactly is happening with the economic giant, with details about the crisis in its behemoth realty sector and the ensuing lending mess.
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What crisis in China? With an expected economy growth rate of over 6% for this year? I would rater be concerned about "crisis in Europe"!
This is the reason RERA needs to be managed well in India.
RERA is just a paper tiger. No builder bothers about RERA judgement in case of dispute.
@@gouwestraat6 beause most builders are actually politicians
@chandan4156 that is why they don't link aadhar card with property id
@@gouwestraat6they do
Comparison between India's NBFCs to China's shadow banking is way off the track. Indian NBFCs are very well regulated, contrary to what Shekhar says. While, Shadow Banking in China is more often than illegal and does not have the sanction of the Chinese Central Bank. The apt comparison in the Indian context is the high interest charging usurious moneylenders who operate outside the purview of RBI
You did not mention a major problem. All local authorities in China depend on land sales for their income. With real estate down, there is low demand for land parcels and all local authority budgets have gone for a toss. This has lead to job loses and financial distress across the country.
Chinese real estate boom also had an impact on other countries. Many Chinese went on buying spree in countries like Canada, driving up real estate prices in those countries and making it unaffordable for locals.
When Shekhar Gupta makes a video, you can know the topic has turned serious.
Good analysis. Even a layman can understand. Good that RBI had put strict rules on lending although there is a lot of nefarious things that is still going on
Hi Shekar Ji, unfortunately preparing news with official chinese data sources will end up making the news that CCP wants to put out there. Convetional research methods needs to change with CCP and better to use leaked info sources in case of China. Templated conventional journalism research methods need to be abandoned with China and alternate methods are more likely to give you news more real news. "More Real" is as good as you can get with china. This is because their "propaganda & censor" industry also makes up a large GDP % 😊😊
Hello Shekhar, Sometimes earlier you used to have some episodes done in an outdoor setting.
Especially for such videos, if you start a memoir series wherein you share your learnings/analysis/understandings of the global landscape as well as India's.
Owing to your vast experience
That also adds a flavour to the show. If audio quality is manageable you can have that back again.
Well said …
Nice topic & research. Meanwhile, I also came across a story where Chinese citizens are opting to invest in other real estate markets like Hong Kong. This slowdown in China might be a bad news for Russia, who despite collabrating with Saudis for oil production cuts, isn't able to make the crude prize peak to its benefit because of low demand from China
Shadow banking of 3 trillion, rotten tails to mortgage boycott, we have learned some more of Chinese real estate and economy. Big thanks SG for taking such subjects up regularly, we too are learning every now and then.
The 20 million people that have mortgages but their apartments have not been completed is only the tip of the problem. The hundreds of millions of completed , sold but not occupied but held as an “Investment “ is the real problem. Chinese with huge mortgages and worthless un occupied and not saleable property. A massive default by hundreds of million Chinese with these mortgages is coming
Comparison of HDFC with shady financiers is just out of league. Housing financing companies like HDFC have been fairly well regulated in India
It’s hard to imagine China real Estate market bubble not bursting and leaving a huge amount of distressed debt. Firstly of the many CCP lies is the population statistics. According to the CCP last year the population is still growing and peak population was estimated to be in 2030. No one really knows but a fair estimate is the population has been in decline since 2016. While China still build more and more houses. China had to many houses 15 years ago. I have seen the many many empty apartment towers and several whole city. Chinese people have been buying empty houses as an investment. Up until recently they have been artificially going up in price. In reality they are worthless. China since 2016 needs less houses not more. These empty towers, cities and houses will never be iocupied . The debt on them will default and there will be a massive problem. How can anyone say China real estate and the economy will not collapse. The CCP has managed to promote and hold the real estate fraud together for decades but the end of the lie is coming
Many highly regarded economists claim that China is suffering 'Deflation' - an economic fate far more precarious than 'Inflation'. The term 'collapse' is used metaphorically, but if anything is true, it is true that 'China's economy IS COLLAPSING (metaphorically)' - because Chinese GDP is very strongly real estate dependent.
I love my country India, and I have no hate for China. But I do not shy away from calling a socio-politic-economic disaster (that is China) for what it is.
China 0 recession
China 0 inflation
Usa recession
Uk recession
France recession
Germany recessing
India recession
Taiwan recession
Excellent Vlog and to the point. Shekhar Ji is at his Best 👏🏼
When Chinese official data comes out divide it by 2 if it is positive and multiply it by 2 if it is negative to arrive at right figures for analysis. 🤣🤣
Took a paid subscription only for SG sir’s CTCs ❣️
Its not CTC its called pension 😂
Thank you so much, Anuradha, for supporting our journalism. It is much-appreciated...best wishes, Shekhar
Excellent and complete analysis. Dhanyawad Shekharji
Chinese infra demand did not grew, but they kept making houses to fuel growth....now no buyers so problem.
This topic was covered by Palki in her Gravitas program ages ago. Finally print decided to wake up. Maybe the chinese patronage to Print is dwindling.
She does multiple videos per day. Shekar has to read up and has to simplify the terms to help us understand..
Palki copies, China related topics from Uncensored China and Fox like channel from Australia. Not original reports.
@@catfordeleven6076print is original? Print has reporters in China? Let not undermine someone who is doing great job.
@@orunabho Palki does not acknowledge original source, never ever. So that's not journalism, it's stealing.
Blahh dude, have a look at the content, I don't see any Chinese influence here
Guys, check out Lei's Real Talk on all things China. SG's CTC doesn't even come close.
Gupta ji knows how viewers are gonna think nd assume..so before hand he points out the logical conclusion of events in this case slow down of chinese economy nd not its end. Next good thing is he constantly compare it with India with help of numbers which help us to get better idea. Last thing he provides direct source to more enthusiastic readers.
very nice and lucid explanation ....! ✅
My two year old goes to sleep listening to Shekar ji😊
Will grow up to become world class liar. 😂😂
Thank You SG for comforting us that China's economy is not collapsing.
For many days most of India was losing sleep over it !!😄😄😄😄
Aadi ji Def talks was so happy grinning and clapping like a little boy whenever China has bad news. He must be very disappointed 😂.
*Dear @ThePRINT Team and @SG - Request to cover/analyse Mr. Prashant Kishor's efforts in Bihar more. One has been closely following this via his **_abhiyaan's_** media output ... there is some special happening here that can transform the beloved, yet the most unfortunate state in India. Thank you* .....apologies since offtopic...
Ex I-PACer here. Not a fan of PK.
@@sbh0892 what is IPAC?
Interesting. Why? He seems to be genuine... trying hard to demonstrate that his previous avatar of a 'moral vaccum' (he helped all parties, regardless of ideology) is no longer him. Do you have better insights?@@sbh0892
No kids No flats , new Chinese life
In india unsecured loans by loan app is snowballing into major crisis... Most loan app harrash ppl despit charging 24-30% effective intrest.. we need to reign in of these apps
Bro sekher, your work place is awesome.... Book 📚 in racks, laptop in table, youtube stick near by... it's really great background ❤
Hi Cut The Clutter team, you have used the wrong picture for Yang Huiyan. The woman shown is another real estate billionaire-Zhang Xin.
Explosive growth or anything is unstable. Sooner or later it will collapse is my guess.
Request shekar Gupta ji to declutter the Article 6A discussion which is underway in supreme court. Like what is it about ? Why petitioners have raised issue?
Superlative SGji❤
Incisive analysis
Good lessons for India...
Besides the RE issue, China has problems with increasing debt, reducing consumption, reducing manufacturing, exiting foreign money, reducing exports, increasing unemployment etc… just saying
Good observation n explanation. Thanks👍
One of the best CTC episodes. KUDOS TO SHEKAR
Good episode. The Chinese slide started 24 months ago in earnest. Its visibility is getting more prominent now. A lot of debt is still hidden in State owned investment vehicles, most of which are financial black holes. China is slowing down more rapidly than predicted by even the most hawkish analysts. Chini economy bye bye!!
hahhahaa china economy is jus fine dont worry🤣🤣worry abt yr own poor indianss
Cry all you want, reality is inspite of being a 20 T USD economy, China is still growing at more than 4.5% a year, while India being less than 1/5 of China's economy is barely growing at 7%. China was growing at 10% in 2007 back when their economy was the same size as ours. China is going to be the number 1 economy from the late 2030s and continue to take that place for the near foreseeable future (upto 2070s).
very informative
Even here Sekhar can't resist from defending and praising China. Whenever China features, Sekhar's analysis turns into an euology.
He isn't defending just giving you context that don't assume economy is collapsing but slowing down.
You are entitled to your opinion, and I to mine.
Just a point of caution as I understand the Print doesn't intend to do it, We come across a lot of misinformation on TH-cam. The argument at 10:40 doesn't help the case. People start suggesting, how a weakend currency is good for India's export aspirations, completely neglecting the record trade deficit we are facing right now
India has so much trade deficit because it doesn't produce much that gets exported. And I don't mean that in absolute terms but compared to countries like China. India needs to improve and greatly expand its manufacturing sector if it wants to reduce its trade deficits.
The weakest and cheapest goods will not attract foreign demand if the quality and sophistication is not there . Most of the best stuff in India is made sadly by foreign companies from S Korea, Japan, Germany , China etc .
Good analysis 😉
I was expecting cut the clutter on J&K reservation bill
Reminds me of that time when millions of Indians, my father, uncles and few cousins included, defaulted on their Reliance phone bills way back in 2004! That 501 bucks "monsoon dhamaka" thing! A particularly dark monsoon that one turned out to be! Further, when Reliance started charging fees for surrendering the connection, people said "karenge bhi nahi aur marenge bhi nahi" and decided to just sit on it!
Was it 2004 or that horrendous monsoon of 2005 in Mumbai ?
@@tapemaj maybe '05
@@motherwar_87it was indeed dear ! Mumbai got washed away in that dreadful month.
It was Mumbai - don’t know where are you from .
@@tapemaj my reference to a "dark monsoon" isn't related to either the actual monsoon Or the plight of Mumbaikars that particular season! Irrespective of where I am from, dear!
@@motherwar_87 Aha - perhaps I misunderstood your diabolical post !
Informative analysis
Chinese real estate businesses are owned by ruling government party members. No strict laws are lending guidelines, but it is habitual to loot ordinary buyers. Democratic capitalism is the best answer to Chinese GDP
Can a country with a shadow banking industry as large as China's be considered stable, investor friendly and championing rule of law.
A cut the clutter on current Myanmar situation
In this episode: cutting the clutter between Chinese economics and Real-estate
ye to title mein hi hai likhne kya jarurat thi
I am wondering how can Zhohgzhi lend 400 billion Yuans against assets of 200 billion yuans? Has the asset value depleted so much, or is it a case of reckless excess lending without adequate security?
Assets value gone down the drain
Not critical about anything in the video. Without a visit to the interior of PRC, it is difficult to comprehend the scope of real estate in the country. More cement was used in PRC between 1995 and 2015 than in the USA from 1900 to 1980. Can rattle off many stats (corruption, technology, Taiwanese investment, USA labor export, etc.) but the key insight is Chinese love to gamble, Indians are inherently risk-averse - slow and steady wins the race? (Of course, the big elephant is room is ...) and then there is the Bhagwati-Sen debate;)
I have seen so many rotten tails in Noida. It was saddening.
Whoever said China will become world’s biggest economy in year 20-xx 😂😂😂😂
Sir. Thanks for this very informative presentation on the Chinese real estate companies ,
Sir. We greatly admire your pronunciation of tongue twisting Chinese names.
Very good analysis
China has.high saving.rate of 46.% which is one of the highest in.the world. These are.disposal incomes which can be used to buy up real estates once the.prices have come down.big enough. If interest rates come down.further , it.will.boost property purchases.
1 dollar is about 7 Yuan, not 8
Great info. But why did these companies bankrupt?
Shadow banking in NOT equal to NBFC , even loosely translated.
Shadow banking gives out loans bypassing govt regulations, pretty much illegally. In India, banking is much better regulated now a days compared to a decade ago.
Why Indian banks are waving off so much bad loans?
Very interesting
To greatly simplify:
There is little "real" real estate in PRC.The project's land ownership remains "communal"and administered. There are people with right of occupancy on the land before it is developed who can be moved off in return for promised free units upon project completion or cash.
The ownership of the buiding itself is fairly nebulous as is its quality, long term. What passes for certainty is that the "buy before build owner" only owns a big mortgage with big payments and a promised "airbox in the sky" to be his own home someday. The rest of the financing is often sought abroad to get the cheapest money to finish the project and hopefully reap huge returns.
Japanese woes started similarly - the lost decade. China is much bigger though. Difficult to predict.
Would like to know how this real estate collapse in china is going to impact India… there has to be some effect on Indian economy also
Not really. India does not export any building material to China.
Yes. Iron, Steel and Copper prices will crash.
i know of many people that will loose their real estate as they will go bankrupt in the following months, also people has no money all due to the big bubble popping up and the worst is yet to come. what were they thinking having way more houses than people they went mad really mad.
Seems the party is over for many!
Haha… simple and revealing…. Now that such issues of Chinese economy are being discussed in detail outside the WALL, does it mean CCP hold on China is weakening? Interesting subject for Shekhar
Tailpiece: A National interest subject… yes, of the Chinese Nation.
Rotten Tail + Mortgage Boycott
$850bn stalled, 2 crore households engaged VS 5 lakh stressed projects in India
What a pity, without understanding the fundamentals of geo-economics n politics critics start defining the difference between economics slowdown and collapse. China’s economy is already collapsing albeit slowly, perhaps it will pick up momentum in few years time, there will be a domino like effect. The reason being, when ambitious politics start controlling arbitrarily the economic forces of the market by creating false economy for the sake of state ideology irreverent to sound economic statecraft, the impending inevitable on the horizon is bound to shine after sometime and that is what is happening presently, the so called slow down are the symptoms future economic scenario.
The same principle applies to the Russian economy despite being perhaps the richest nation natural resources wise with much less population. You can’t strengthen country’s economic n political fundamentals when corrupt group of oligarchs with a despot at the helm grinding their axes. Russia may win the present war against Ukrain, but the countdown of collapse of economic n political fundamentals has started. Ukraine will be rebuilt by the financial sharks like Blackrock who then later on will eye Russia’s natural resources to exploit if there’s a change in political set up, Russia is stuck up in a quagmire of war of economic n political turmoil.
Likewise US too is in unimaginable financial quagmire with over 8 trillions USD debt while printing currency at will. It will be interesting to see how economic n political scenario will enfold by the time next President takes over in 2024. For one thing is sure, multipolar economic power zones will emerge in due course n US economic clout will diminish immensely n one should surprised if there’s a semblance of depression of 1920-30s.
All numbers should be US dollars billions or Yuan easy to compare Shekar sir refers at some places as Billion US dollars and some places at Yuan billions
Good that RBI has regulated NBFCs in India
Rapid growth is not the right way for an individual, country or a country. Growth is a process not an event, let growth take its own path it's a learning from China
Shekar Gupta is sad that china is having tough times
Can you please change the ad in the beginning please? It is the same ad for the past many months. Tired of watching
If an entity is funding the group why should and would they stop showing their ad? It's their obligation. May be entity funding the print can change their ad 😂 as per your expectations.
And… A negative feeling Ad
Also, why don't you get a membership and pay some rupees if you want the ad to go away.
On a unrelated note, can u explain or compare the political system that is prevalent before 2014 and 2024 elections?? It feels 6 months before the 2014 elections there was palpable excitement and buzz about narendra modi and bjp. Y isnt the congress or for that matter any other party able to generate such a buzz even after similar duration of rule by congress and bjp govt.
Secondly did sachin pilot lose by not joining bjp or seperating from congress during his rebellion?? It feels both bjp and sachin pilot would have benefitted hugely especially when the bjp is looking for a fresh face as rajasthan cm.
For your first question, as Prashant Kishor says, BJP has 4 main pillars.
Reviving Hindutva, Hyper nationalism, strong election campaigning machines from top to grass roots level with great funding and direct benefit transfers for crores of people in different schemes.
This has avoided the anti-incumbency and a good portion of the nation are pro-incumbancy.
Opposition should come up with a narrative which strongly challenges BJP in atleast 3 out of 4 pillars, only then people's vote shifts.
Right now it looks like BJP can win atleast 2 more terms with making inroads into previously uncharted territories like Kerala, TN, Andhra, Punjab, North East.
More consolidation where it already has a good presence.
If you haven't figured out yet, uncle sam hired media to train guns on Congress so moodi can form the government which will be in forever debt or favour to sam.
Such strategies Sam has used in many countries and many times. That's what powers like usa, Russia, China do.
That's the reason you haven't heard the buzz (in media) against moodi gormint. And you never will.
Sachin pilot would have much more free hand in Congress than in bjp. Bjp is expert in making anyone their puppet, like governors and ed, cbi, court judges and people who jumped ship to join bjp.
I guess he values his stand/ worth in Congress than bowing down to masters.
“In July this year, The Indian Express through information received from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) under the Right to Information Act had reported that banks had written off bad loans worth over Rs 2.09 lakh crore during the year ended March 2023, taking the total loan write-off by the banking sector to Rs 10.57 lakh crore
I only have comment on THE PRINT videos... "r e kehna Kya chate ho?"
Chinese government wants to move to consumption based economy. Hence they want people not to invest in real estate. The immediate problem is the consumer confidence. Also the tax revenue of the local governments depends on the land sale.
many elites were already taking their money out of china, that is why money control is even tighter, but there is always a hole somewhere lol
1. Shekhar is certainly right- China is not collapsing ( I am sure he will also agree that Pakistan is not collapsing too!!) but is going through some economic difficulties, just like any other country. China is perfectly capable to resolving those issues affecting it like its real estate sector, banking system etc. 2. Let us start thumping our 56 inches chests as our growth rate is now higher than China, when the Chinese economy is 5-6 times bigger than India! Without any headaches like democracy and populism, Xi can implement any policy he wants and get out of troubles for China.
Democracy should be the bedrock of any society. No society can really prosper and sustain itself for long without an effective democracy.
@@piyushagarwal1350 ask this question to any person in India, including me, whether they prefer democracy, or being able to live a comfortable and quality life with good public infrastructure, nice healthcare and money in hand. You will only get one answer (hint: Its not Democracy). Democracy has failed us big time. Dictatorship might fail too, but we will never know until we try
If anything - it has good lessons for us - how to regulate and what not do when we as a nation reach that economic level.
Tour-de-force of de cluttering!
Gupta ji this ad is bad only
I am still not able to buy a flat in Shenzhen so news are not real.
greed
None on feku delaying CMs names 😅 SG
Don't use such words. He has transformed India. See the construction of highways travel 50000 km of highways is real, no tolls where hundreds of trucks were standing for hours bribing toll guys, see how banking system is clean now compared to the mess in 2014, see how international fuel prices are passed on daily to public rather than subsidise.. these are massive things done by this government. Be thankful this givt come in last 8 years. Else by now as per the earlier regime, we would be in royal royal mess
Things go wrong in China: its just a problem. Things going wrong in india : its Narendra Modis failure😂
Slowdown in China will impact many countries globally. Also with reshoring of manufacturing to US
Why china keep their currency weeek?
Simple to keep thier export stronger in Dollar term
China has export surplus economy. They gain much more through exports compared to losses due to imports by devaluing their own currency. Exactly opposite to india.
SG you apologise for mispronouncing Chinese pronouns. But when it comes to Indian ones like Yediyurappa - you don’t apologise for mispronouncing
Shekharji still can’t pronounce ‘Karnataka’ correctly.
@@deccanhearthe apologise in one of his videos
Chinese real state of 30% of their gdp.
Guptaji it is old news
Ghost towns
Too Long
Gupta saab, any word regarding china and pakistan from indians shall declare false.
😂😂😂
Our own unreal estate is moving so fast that it may struck hard
Tired of this BS argument that Chinese economy is collapsing, reality is that inspite of being a 20 T USD economy, China is still growing at more than 4.5% a year, while India being less than 1/5 of China's economy is barely growing at 7%. China was growing at 10% in 2007 back when their economy was the same size as ours. China is going to be the number 1 economy from the late 2030s and continue to take that place for the near foreseeable future (upto 2070s).
I feel so sorry for the young people/families who’ve paid for apartments and are left stuck with undeveloped projects.
Are Gandhi’s having exposure?
Always China and Pakistan and very rarely our burning problems existing in our country and affecting the common man, even if discussed, just gloss over without being critical.
real estate bubbles are worst offences. the fact that china allowed it to become its primary growth driver after GFC 2008, speaks of its addictiveness. however, it it good thing they r allowing it to deflate w/o saving those offenders. the payback time has arrived of these expensive steroids for economy. this can easily take a decade or half to deflate. kind of like the bad debts of India which took 10 yrs to clean from balance sheets of our banks. RE must be only abt at max-15 per cent of any country. Chinese growth will certainly slow down to 3-4 percent by 2030 which is kinda good too.