Making sense of China’s economic gloom: Investment, debt, real-estate bust, babies & geopolitics
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ก.พ. 2024
- #cuttheclutter #china #chinaeconomy
There’s a lot of gloomy talk about the Chinese economy, which makes up just under 18 percent of the global GDP, in the international media. In Ep 1399 of Cut The Clutter, Editor-in-Chief Shekhar Gupta looks at the factors ailing China, and unpacks some data to explain its current situation.
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0:55 Western economies are deeply embedded in Chinese economy
5:27 American economic growth has picked up
9:17 Chinese had an overhang of debt and investment
15:48 Buyers have stopped servicing their loans
21:03 ‘Three red lines’
27:30 ‘Post-China world’
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Research: Shreya Shankar
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Links:
www.wsj.com/world/china/china...
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www.wsj.com/world/china/china...
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carnegieendowment.org/chinafi...
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carnegieendowment.org/chinafi...
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carnegieendowment.org/chinafi...
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www.theepochtimes.com/china/a...
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Shekarji, the Print needs to cover the atrocities in Sandeshkhali. Your publication justifiably made a huge cry over atrocities in Manipur, it's time to extend that coverage to the poor people of Bengal.
They are all dalits but even Mandal is silent.
@@AmalTanbecause they are Hindu dalits 😢
TH-cam algorithm
Yes, one is getting the feeling something beyond reported news and hyperbolic statements has happened there... Maybe @ThePRINT doesn't have anyone near ground yet.
Have you noticed how all Leftist Media have imposed "Silent Ban" over any News from Bengal ? They just won't show it. Not just this time, but even Post-Poll Election Violence was never shown.
Its as if Crimes on Hindus don't happen, Only Crimes on Muslims are acknowledged.
Rahulji should guide them to revive their economy
Let him also throw in free water, free electricity, loan waivers, and statues for each in Beijing
Totally irrelevant. Send Nirmala there; she’ll do a great job.
@@beezlebub9yes, it will be best economy in the world then. Fastes growing.like India is.
and Yogendra yadav. and Kanjarwal and bhagwant maan.
Chutiye go and check the past before taking any advice of xhutiya pappu
What about Sandeshkhali ?
Let me make it clear, anyone who doesn't talk about strongly is as criminal as those criminals themselves.
I think they'll make it. But, to do good journalism they need time to send reporters on ground, gather sources and produce reliable reports first, for the editor in chief, sitting in delhi, to declutter the noise.
"Let me make it clear, anyone who doesn't talk about strongly is as criminal as those criminals themselves"
virtue signalling today, are we?
You don't have the right to order people on what is right and what isn't
your sister is back from Abdul's home. Ohh I don't have to comment what is right and what isn't.@@ameytiwari1247
@@ameytiwari1247 as consumers of news we have right to call out on missing journalism
@@ameytiwari1247 You must be a Pakistani/Afghan journalist or Biden administration/democrats bought & sold out media to talk like that!!
No coverage of Sandeshkhali.😥
Real godi media
If you think that he is Journalist and print as Journalism...you are looking at the mirage in the deep desert
He wouldn't...he was reporting on privileged and well-known wrestlers' unproven allegations coz they are from his state
But r*pe of unprivileged women from backward communities is termed as sexual exploitation and is not worth reporting for Shekhar and his minions
Actually they fear the real "tanashah" sitting in Bengal and his on ground reporters would rather shit their pants than do a report from there
paisa mil gaya :)
What dear?
Still no video on #SANDESHKHALI. Are you waiting for a Rajya Sabha like shameless Sagarika or because Hindu lives don’t matter when criminal is Muslims & belongs to anti-BJP front?
Well, it is because they are D4lits. Lutyens media doesn't like to talk about their suffering because it would anger the Bandaloks - their allies in Bengal. Lutyens media has a deep history of burying atrocities against Hindu refugees and D4lits in West Bengal since the early days of Jyoti Basu. Never forget Marichjhapi.
@@libshastra Atleast Dilip Mandal can do a show. No?
@@AmalTan Big test for Dilip Mandal. If he doesn't talk now, the world will know the fake and complicit he is.
If he doesn't talk now, he is as much a criminal as those criminals in Bengal.
@@AseemKumar9 the world won't know simply because you believe so. We need to let the world know that folks like Mandal and Yengde are nothing more than charlatans.
WTF BOSS
As a Haryanvi, SG should do a CTC on why Punjab farmers launch a protest on the eve of every national elections, but Haryana farmers don't.
PUNJAB FARMERS HAVE BECOME PAWNS OF KHALISTANIS AND CORRUPT KEJRIWAL AAP/ PANNU
Most of the demands are ridiculous, the MSP demand itself will cost 10lakh crores, then fhere is getting out of WTO and stopping free trade, pension for farners and farm labourers.
I was listelistening to Atif Mian, a macroeconomist, and he astutely pointed out that China had always built for overcapacity. Basically they had borrowed to produce way more than they can consume so they could export the overcapacity. Now they are stuck with debt used to build that excess capacity
BRI was one of the brilliant decisions to offload that “excess capacity”, However since developed nations + India did not join that initiative, it dealt a minor blow to the BRI
@@muralidhar40 True. BRI was a lifeline for Chinese companies who were over producing. They have run out of things to build even in poor and developing countries since they also cannot bear debt burden. India should invest in infrastructure and slowly focus low end manufacturing like Textiles, Electronics assembly, toys etc. Hopefully our exports can touch above $1 Trillion in manufactured goods minus any raw material and agricultural exports. This will catapult India to $10 Trillion economy in less than a decade.
This is not a secret, it can also be said that even ordinary people like you and me understand the truth, politicians have long known it. So the question has never been about finding a way to grow the economy, but how to take the first step and move forward steadily, which is something India will never be able to do
When the state and Govt interfered in the economic decisions ...
What do you meam by over producing? Can you give specific examples of this? I can't seem to see how they were over producing when their productions are mostly orders for foreign companies.
When will be CTC on West Bengal institutionalised rape case Gupta jee ? Shame on you and your Print
Chinese economy is in a transition state from reliance on low tech high labour industries like real estate furniture, household appliances, toys, textiles to robotics, NEVs, AI, chips etc. The reason for falling FDI is more local investments are replacing it. A good example is Electrical Cars exports have overtaken Japan. It is moving to a higher quality exports. Most people cannot tell the difference between profit and profitability.
Still, car exports are not going to save the Chinese economy
Reads like neither can you
video on #SANDESHKHALI. what happening there?
1. The idea that an economy should continue to grow for ever and at higher rates is fundamentally wrong. Japan has shrinking population and its economy is almost stagnant. But Japan is not growing poor. Similarly, Chinese population is now stagnant, if not shrinking. So if its economy is not growing too high, it is fine. 2. Having said this, there would always be many structural issues in the economy, which need to be resolved from time to time. Further, there is no need for China to become No 1 economy in the world so soon or otherwise; as long as it is doing well on quality of life parameters for its population, it is fine. Further, China is way ahead of the 3rd largest economy in the world in any case! And whatever be the condition of Chinese economy, it is not a weak country as far as its economy or its military power goes. It can make USA shiver anytime, even if whispers Taiwan!! 3. So let the Chinese resolve their issues. If foreign capital is coming out of China, it means they are selling their investments at a loss and are moving out. Who is suffering loss? Not the Chinese but the Western investors! So bother about the West rather than China!!!!
Right.. correct different perspective...
Too simplified. there is an added complexity of being a communist country Chinese economic numbers were always fudged
A good logic but let's look it the other way, if in a huge Mall doing a roaring business, when shops start closing down or moving out, the apparent primary loss can be said to be of the shopkeepers, but it will ultimately lead to the loss of the Mall which will go defunct.
@@satishsharma9307 You are right. How to handle this situation is a matter of structural adjustments to the economy. My point is that just because Chinese economy has slowed down, it is going to be trouble is not exactly so!! The metric of economic growth as the sole criteria for judging a nation needs to be modified.
Japan went from richer than USA in 95 to poorer than them in 23.so yes Japan is growing poorer if you take inflation in account. They went from super rich to just normal rich.
2. If west is selling their assets for loss in China that mean they don't see any growth in future from them and that will have effect on many industry which are connected to them.
We will see what we are seeing in turkey nowdays. China will remain a millitary power but not economic power.
Well-done. Packed with info. A genuine cut the clutter.
When you look at the issue of intellectual property theft and fakes, the Chinese are WORLD CLASS!!
Exactly, they are good at making only those things themselves which a western company already makes in china as well. The western companies bring supply chain improvements and then the Chinese companies work with same supply chain to use those in their products. Without external ideas, they are lost in manufacturing, can only copy stuff.
When it is about China, India seems to follow the footsteps of the US. The US has been parroting such narratives for decades. Yet, China slowly and steadily becomes richer, prosperous and stronger. Even being an Indian we must learn how China has become so prosperous. Stop following the footstpes of the US. Shekharji!!🙏
fcuk #ccp :)
Not parroting US...China has really slowed with other challenges...while US came strong in 2023 and counting....US extended its lead on GDP.....many future prediction if China crossing zuS in 2028 is Not possible ..it may considerable slow for population slowing....coupled with Xi jing ping handling . ....yes China gas come long way and built a prosperous nation ...but last few years has been challenging
Another China expert. Never went to China, can't reads mandarin, never interviewed any chinese economists or policy makers. But now somehow become an expert. Good job Mr.Expert!
Jealous of China growth it seems. 😂😂
@@exterminatormoin SG has mostly ever covered and viewed China and some of its policies positively since a long time. But now when there's a point to be called out - he called it out. Coming to jealousy - Indians mostly have been very respectful of China's growth and development and have taken it as a learning. As in any lessons or learning - its also about learning to do the same mistakes. This episode is about the latter.
Looks like an Indian Marxist (more loyal than the king) or a wumao troll.
@nehaojha9094
The problem with indians is they all get there sources from the west, so theyre basically regurgitating
He’s more qualified than someone who lives inside China’s information vacuum. Someone with limited data is better than someone with false data.
Ha ha ha! Cracked open a beer after listening to this! Where are the WUFF WUFF WARRIOIRS now , soiling themselves? Well done Uncle Xi! May you stay in power for the next 10 years!!
Early morning Beer. Cheers!
Don't hold your breath! This is typical of you Indians. Can't make your country great, wish Ill for your neighbour. If you're happy listening to unfounded China bashing, go listen to Gordon Chang😅. He's been predicting the fall of China for decades.
Chinese are enjoying new year holidays with family. And u r talking here about their problems. How kind of you Mr Gupta 👍
China always tries to bully India. Why should he be kind to them?
It is not Print only. Even internationally, it is being discussed. You sound like a left politician.
@@quantum4907
Time has come for western to be called western. There is no international left in west any more.
The Chinese have saved a lot of money so of course many will celebrate and enjoy it. It's an 18 trillion dollar economy with 12000 USD per capita income . The article is about their growth trajectory here onwards. Where is the contradiction here.
@@contactpjoshi123GDP≠ salary income. The government has clearly made sure people earn less than they could under a free market.
Where is the video on UK violence by the peaceful community.
United Kingdom??
@@Bollywood_Hater😝 it’s Uttarakhand dear 😜
Both UKs - Uttarakhand and United Kingdom
Woh nahin aayega
@@psingh007 koi bat nahi. Iski hi credibility jayegi usse.
Mr Xi is doing good. Too much bad debt in real estate in China and he is clearing up. Modi did a brilliant job clearing the bad debt in the Indian banking system. Most of the Chinese debt is internal debt and can be wiped out by the govt without affecting his AAA credit score to borrow more from the international donors. USA debt to GDP will cross 200% by the end of the year. Most of these money belongs to international govt as we buy their debt so that they can print more USD. USA will wipe it out but it will still not affect USD as we are fool and we will continue to buy American debt as all our economy depends on USD. Japan’s debt to GDP is over 300% and is mixed.
Thank you for your wise take. It looks as if the speaker deliberately tries to create a certain conclusion about Chinas economic future. I do agree that while there would be some short term pain associated with the reforms which the Chinese government is doing right now, in the long term it is doing the right thing. Chinese people (or any country for that matter) do not care about a particular ranking, rather to improve their standard of living. Even at 4-5% growth and a declining population, the per capita growth could be around 6%, which is very good. The no.1 ranking has more geopolitical and military ramifications rather than a purely economic one. Greetings from India 🇮🇳 🙏
People pretending to understand economics and all wide ranging impacts. The amount of armchair experts is astounding
One thing I would like to point out Gordon Chang and many other well known economists, Wall Street Journal etc had been predicting for the last 2-3 decades that China's economy would collapse. God knows when those fortune tellers predictions are going to be true. There's no harm in day dreaming.
Once again an excellent episode.Hope to have more like this!
Great presentation!
Well, China's Growth has considerably slowing down,But US not only Destroyed the Impressions of expected Recession, It's Growth is Rising and is now at 3% on a Quarter basis, Europeans are struggling due to their own mistakes,From Socialist policies and Social Security Raking up Massive Debts,To stopping Cheap Energy Imports, Allowing Illegal Immigrants etc
who would have thought that when u can print money on demand without significant consequences and then export the inflation to the rest of the world, u would crush any competing nation economically and also criticise your allies for their poor policies. 👍
Did you ask why the US growth is so high? did you inspect what actually contribute to the rise in economic data in the US? Why is the feds worried? the data looks good right? Why are there so many homeless? why is the US citizens complaining about jobs and prices? their unemployment number is at record high right?
the good old debt fueled growth. Biden is outspending all US presidency to prop up this "impression" while the world is doing more and more dedollarization. Recession is coming this year
Some articles without praising Modani ji. Thanks
India is too busy doing propaganda against China, instead of working on it's own economy. I have not seen a country more negative than India. Outside of India no one talks like this about China. It only shows how jealous is India about China's development . Some people say that India is only making it's master USA happy. So unfortunate
SG has mostly ever covered and viewed China and some of its policies positively since a long time. But now when there's a point to be called out - he called it out. Coming to jealousy - Indians mostly have been very respectful of China's growth and development and have taken it as a learning. As in any lessons or learning - its also about learning not to repeat the same mistakes. This episode is about the latter.
Also news about China is pretty much mainstream news all around the world.
Pakistani. China ka mohtaaj.
16:30 the builders in most cases have used the fund for purchasing further lands instead of completing the ones they got deposit for. They thaught they could complete them with borrowings from banks but banks stopped giving them loans.
Fantastic presentation. The way you have explained the downfall of the chinese economy& the reasons behind it in a simple language is what we expect from cut the clutter.
Brilliant summary!
Adding to SG, growth targets in journalism are also like - how much advertising you could bring to the organisation to stay employed!
Enlightening.
@SG, 10:15 mathematics lesson, debt multiply by 6 is not same as debt to power 6. These two are different, one is multiplication and other one is exponential.Between, very good analysis and summary of where China is heading at.
Comparison of Labor Productivity levels (USD per person employed per hour):
Singapore 59.76 USD/Hour
Hongkong 44.68 $
Japan 36.22 $
Korea 28.70 $
Indonesia 10.21 $
India 6.46 $
What is relevance to article/video?
Is purpose simply to make a group look down?
Second, this data and calculations is tricky when you take counteries with large population spread across unorganized sector and have manual labour.
Third
In case of india even indian economist are unsure of actual wealth generation vs declared wealth.
4th, there is a huge disparity between urban cs rural poorly educated worker. It is easy to club all people together by nation without actually having in depth understanding of a country
comparing India to China or USA would be better than much smaller countries listed here
@@anmolsingh9025
The point is India needs a high skilled labour force to compete globally..
@@AravindBappanadu
China is 10.64 $/hour
USA is 59.77 $/hour
Comparing countries which have gone through complete growth cycles with India whose growth cycle is not even half way through in terms of productivity only goes to show how stupid or politically biased the person making these comparisons is. He also added a few tiny island countries just incase anyone has a doubt that the person about the person's stupidity.
Chinese fundamentals are very strong. Their Universities and human resource are among the top. They dont want their country like growth showing cycle of capitalism, like usa and japan. World no-1 economy America cannot provide its 34 crore people a good and peaceful life.
Some lessons for Tamil Nadu from the Chinese GDP growth. Three Trillion economy fueled by debts and handouts is a disaster. Hope our people find wisdom.
What is the base of growth of china compared to usa and india
Fantastic episode SG ! Appreciate the effort to simplify the story of the state of Chinese economy now and the reasons behind. Well rounded episode..
I will continue to rely on The print for pure information. Thanks thoroughly analyzed and well explained
The US is also in a bubble. They have printed money and there will be payback especially if they lose dollar supremacy
You don't learn. This is what they have been saying for years. I guess the US is good at managing a bubble economy. Leave TH-cam, spend time on a book, and stop hating.
They have the military to back up their dollar supremacy with. So yeah they can do whatever they want for printing how so ever much.
Sir... Thank you for analysis
For the viewers here who wants to seek truth from "facts" presented in this video. First I would like to say, no respectable analyst would say that an economic problem in China is created by arrogance and authoritarianism. This is just bias and ideological. China has made mistakes like any other economy but not through arrogance or authoritarianism. Lets analyze a few points:
1) Babies: Birth rate is a huge problem in China stemming mainly from the adoption of capitalist corporate system and life style that does not reward childbearing and a culture of western individualism that values the pursuit of happiness above all else in life. However, to say that the current economic challenge is coming from low birth rate is flat out lying or trying to be misleading. This is a problem that will bite China 20 years down the road but definitely not now.
2) Real estate: 20 million house sounds alot but can anyone guess how much apartment there are in China? There are over 600 million buildings in China and not all are apartment of course, but this tells you about the scale of China's construction. 20 million is a drop in a bucket and it does not effect the economy in any scale. Secondly, the host make it seems like Chinese banks are collapsing due to real estate dev default. Nothing can be further from the truth. If this is the case, there will be lines of people trying to cash out from the bank. There are currently many Indians living in China, contact them and ask them if the Chinese are lining up outside their bank to cash out. The only organization that collapsed from this is a shadow banking company that primarily caters to high end investors which does not in anyway effect the economy nor the stability of the country. The biggest loser from real estate default is not the Chinese bank, they get to restructure debts and since they are owned by the state, the state has plenty of ammunition to shore up cash. The biggest loser is in fact the foreign investors that get almost nothing from the collapse of companies like evergrande. Many of these companies are some of the largest financial institution on the planet and they are not happy. This is why many are staying out of further investment in China. However, China no longer relies on FDI to grow. It is infact the least important component for economic growth. Domestic consumption and high tech manufacturing is positioned to be the most important.
3) Debt: It is true that China is heavily indebted. But to who? Who is lending and who is borrowing. The majority of debt is coming from the real estate developers which is deflating and resolving shortly and the other are coming from local gov financing vehicle company. This is the problem. The vast majority of Chinese don't pay property tax, so the local gov relies on selling land to raise funds to built infrastructures and spend on other things. Rich local gov like Shanghai and zhejiang has no problem, because they can rely on other income such as corporate tax, but less economically well off place are finding huge difficulties in raising funds to service debts. SO who do they borrow from? The state owned banks, not even the citizen. What does this mean? It is much easier to restructure the debt when it is the gov borrowing from itself. This practice of selling land and heavy borrowing to raise cash is a leftover from the last decade of crazy borrowing and is no longer the case now. SO once this debt is restructured, the problem will be solved. Debt owed to private banks and individuals are much harder to restructure.
4) Deflation: everyones favorite topic for China collapsing theory. While Consumer has tightened up their wallet due to factors such as worsening economic outlook world wide and domestically, it is not the biggest contributors to the deflation last quarter. Take a look at the data and you will find that the drop in pork price and transportation is the main cause. Pork is a staple food and main protein source in China and it is weighted heavily in China's CPI calculation. Price of cars and other transport cost is dropping as well thanks to price wars and cheaper fuel price. This is a welcome sign for most consumers. The other key components stayed relatively stable and slightly increase throughout the year.
5) Geopolitics: What does this have to do with current Chinese economic challenge? Not much really. It is mainly confined in the tech sector and some factories establishing factories overseas to get around sanction. This has nothing to do with neighboring conflicts and has more to do with China vs US rivalry where China is on the defense and the US is always on the offense with sanctions and tariff. Blaming all the tension between some of china's neighbor on China is extremely dishonest at best. this is a complex situation that i wont cover here.
6) China global GDP percentage: This is another dishonest way of judging China's economy. This shrinking of global GDP percentage is primarily caused by the exchange rate with USD. When the US is posting fake economic growth on due to huge gov spending + booming US stocks + high interest rate, most country is going to lose currency exchange rate with the US. Just look at Japanese Yen and Euro for example. If you want to compare GDP to measure economic strength then take a look at the GDP PPP to get a more accurate measure of relative strength.
Final word: Look beyond rhetorics and ideologue to seek the truth. When a host or a commentator start mixing ideology such as democracy vs authoritarian or putting human personality such as arrogance or jealous on a country, it should raise a red flag for a biased driven narrative. A bias driven narrative will seek information to support their bias only and ignores the information that goes against the bias. I welcome intelligent discussion and not ideology or hate fights.
You are very naughty to wake somebody up in the middle of his wet dream.
How much money you get paid? Whatever you say, communism never ever works, eventually it will fail
A good video not only on Chinese economic woes but also on many economic lessons.
thenks
Very educative!!!!🙏
Well researched
you guys don't have an HD camera?
it takes time for youtube to process HD codec
What are you talking about? I saw this video in 4K . 😑
okay, my bad @@AshikJonathan
I have been a paid subscriber to this channel for several years. I recently convinced my wife to become a paid subscriber as well. Nobody cuts the clutter from the noisy news cycle like Mr.Gupta. Truly a gem of a channel -- just look at this particular episode and how much ground it covers and how clearly everything is explained. Please support this channel as much as you can.
True
But people like shnesh welcome anti Hindu and anti Indian racist Islam fundamentals like wajahid sayeed khan
I have cancelled my subscription as I am against these low intellect journalists
You should cancel your subscription till this fool is fired from the print
Thank you for such kind words, my friend, and the wonderful endorsement... your support really means a lot. Do keep watching and writing in...best wishes, Shekhar
Great analysis
200+ % debt is TOTAL debt comprising govt, household and corporate. Govt debt is less than India's at about 70% of GDP
This guy was praising Chinese economy for years.Now west is saying he agrees.
Sorry, but you have the wrong take on China. There's no credible source that says their debt to gdp ratio is 300%. If it is an apples to apples comparison, then this is true for many other countries. Ask any international banker if the Chinese economy is a problem, and they will say this is not the case. The IMF report a much lower %.
They are investing in all the right things for the future - Public transportation infrastructure, electric vehicles, solar cells, machine learning, etc.
It may look like Mexico is the largest trading partner with the US, and that there is increase in US trade with countries like Vietnam and Indonesia. But if you look more carefully, all these countries have commensurate increase in trade deficit with China, and the Chinese have set up factories in Mexico, Vietnam and Indonesia so that it looks like the products are emerging from these countries. In reality, this has merely increased the cost of goods traded, and is partially the reason for inflation in the US.
Look deeper as to what the real issue is, please.
Good you must doubling down on your China investment then?
He looked deeper than you, he refused to acknowledge and talk about facts to his audience, thats all. In fact, his audience are not stupid either, they do the same thing.
😂😂😂😂😂😢😊😂😂
Experts like the one in the video have more important things to do than dig deeper.
Put your money in the Chinese stock market then, if you are so much in love with china. Check their stock performance and then check others and indias
Their biggest problem is deflation, imagine u already have tons of debt in ur local currency and ur domestic inflation is around 0%.
Down turn in Chinese economy has hit Gandhi family hard too. All the money from CPC to Congress has stopped 😂
Great video and timely.
Thank you, Mark, for watching and writing in. Thank you also for supporting our journalism...best wishes, Shekhar
This is the best summary of the decline of Chinese economy I have seen so far. Thanks a lot .
Declining?? Are Indians blind?
pretty low level of economic education.
Shekharji - There are exactly half a million unsold inventory in India. 16:00
The innocence with which people below ask Shri Gupta to cover Sandeshkhali brings tears to my eyes. ThePrint has done a perfunctory '50-word edit' and dusted its hands off. Sufficient for future deniability of biased reporting. Don't expect too much more.
Indians don't need to worry about china they are doing a wonderful job.
One of the best on China, Great
Please consider dubbing in Hindi CUT THE CLUTTER episode for the larger audience.
What is indian role in chinese slow down, you didn't mention
You not mentioned Vietnam in your CTC getting alternative for China
Dont divert / focus on the Indian economy mess / press freedom / malnutrition / GDP / Price rise / unemployment / agravian crisis.... Shekhar Gupta China has / will takr care of itself / report on the farmers rightful protest amd question the border like barricades...
China 's per capita GDP is almost 6 times that of India with almost equal if not less population. Hoping that China will one day become equal to India is wishful thinking.
Needless to mention India would have been in same situation with debt, corruption's and much bigger scams if Antonio maino and pappu were allowed to rule this country. Bhagwan Bharat ko bacha hee diya
Yes debt is going to create economic problems. However, because most of the debt is in Chinese currency, Beijing can “cheapen” the debt by simply printing money to pay it off. Of course that will cause inflation but the danger of debt is over sold.
No the real problem is under consumption. China has depressed consumption to reallocate it for growth by investing what isn’t consumed (aka savings) in increasing the productive capacity of the economy. The problem is they have overdone it and a lot of the investment has gone into things that does nothing to grow the economy. Creating housing that no one lives in may add to the GDP, but doesn’t do much to create useful productive capacity.
The real threat is the shift in the mood of the Chinese consumer toward pessimism and the decline in young people which all contribute toward falling consumption that can result in deflation. It is deflation that pose a mortal danger to the health of the economy. Beijing will have no choice but to cheapen the currency and trigger inflation as the way to solve the debt problem and counteract deflation. Once deflation takes hold, it can become a death spiral as waves of consumption reduction is followed by waves of companies going under, causing waves of unemployment, which cause more loss of consumption, etc.
The last time this happened, it was called the Great Depression.
Great in-depth presentation on a very interesting topic! Thanks a lot for sharing 💜
Did ur commission decrease from China ?
❤Shekhar explains a dry subject like economics in a very simple & next door neighbour language and cheekily also hints that a very much centrally controlled governments ( the way our Modi government is behaving nowadays) may lead the country to a sticky / slippery road.😊😊
The property does not produce wealth like investment in factory or service company. This is very important.
Why nothing was said about the huge Chinese foreign exchange and gold reserves? Surely with those reserves, they will pump in money to revive their economy.
Without young people no use
Many young people in China bro.
Hahahahah india can never be like china ....why do u always compare ur self with china ... compared ur self with south Africa and Philippines 😅😅😅
Chinese noodle
Indian need to invest in public not like China only invest in infrastructure projects
Thanks
Hi,
Thank you for supporting ThePrint.
Everything that we use day to day in India and the world over still comes from China.
Did you even see this video ?
A new furniture costs me around 70€ and was made in China but most things that are expensive are not exported from China
Not saying that China doesn't manufacture anything of value but don't confuse quantity with value
Mostly copied stuff made with poorer quality and materials. Companies like apple put a lot of due diligence in quality control because they need to
@@vikashchandra9917
Before coming to India, where were IPhones produced ? China
@@varoonnone7159 and where did iPhone idea came from? From USA. Read my sentence again, and get some reading comprehension classes.
Can we have a video on America's overperformance next please
Hello Sir.... Pls cover Sandeshkhali.... We deserve to be heard to entire India....
Hi Darbari sahib.how about sandeshkhali?
Issue that shall not be mentioned #sandeshkhali.
What is India's Consumption Ratio?
like for world it's 1 dollar against 3, what's it for India?
Very informative and simple. Most of your presentations are very good. Apart from this you are building a very diversified talents in print. I hope it sustains well
I see a huge growth in poverty in india in coming decade. In fact much worse than most countries in our region with the only exception of pakistan probably.
Source
Poverty in India has always been there, will it increase or decrease is the real question here. India’s growth is going up but who is actually benefitting? Not the middle or lower class, the top 1% will benefit the most. Modi favours the rich, the only time you’ll get money is when Modi wants to buy your vote, but he’ll take it back of you through taxes, find out how much taxes the rich pays in your country and then you’ll wake up…
@@kevinclasher3160 The growth that you mentioned is more than accounted by some increase in working age population. Not all of working age population are working though or even those that are I don't think are working at wages commensurate with future security. Pension will be a huge issue and burden for future governments like most developed countries have.
@@nicksonpinto2074 the working age issue is not right now, that is something they need to workout for the future. The thing is China has never said they wanted to be a superpower, they want a multi-poplar world. Where the West been suppressing the third world like Africa, China helped them to where they are today and this is not all China, India has a part to play in this. BRICS is the on,y thing that threatens the G7 that’s controlled by the US.
Modi’s ambition is to become the world superpower, to him China is a threat to his ambition, for one China prevented India to join the UN Security Council and China has always been seen more successful than India so Modi will do his utmost to ruin China’s growth to surpass them.
You see, Modi can be the one who topples the West’s hegemony over the world by properly siding with the global South. At the moment Modi is flip flopping around between the West and global south, can’t seem to decide which side he’s on…. He wants to be like the West but at the same times wants the global south to give him respect. You know there is no way to be friends with Russia and the West at the same time, sooner or later as like now, India is going to get sanctioned by the EU.
The US is only using Modi to fight China, end game here is for the collapse of Asia. If the US get there way and Modi falls for it then caching and India will fall, the US makes money from selling weapons to all the countries fighting China and doesn’t need to use their own troops to do it. Let’s say China falls and India takes over China, you think the US will allow India to grow to challenge the US?
Being honest, if China fails so will India and the global south. The US already has major military bases surrounding China when China falls, there a,ready in place ready to finish of India, after that there will be no country close enough to challenge the US’s hegemony…
Really? Multidimensional poverty has reached single digits for the first time and this is your prediction? Don't play the lottery.
What's the " Real " GDP of China
More than $ 18 Trillion USD?? according to China's Own Estimates,It is 126 Trillion Yuan or $ 17.7 Trillion USD from Jan 2023 to Dec 2023, So Where do you get this Data, World Bank Comically Estimated China's GDP at 17.7 Trillion USD in 2021,Where as China's Own Estimates show that it is only in 2023,It is 17.7 Trillion USD
SANDESHKHALI
This Topic is Banned by all Leftist Media.
Becaue it is not convinient for their Narrative that Muslims are persecuted in India.
I find it unbelievable that the Chinese economy has grown by 5% or 4% during the last two or three years. This would be regarded as a healthy growth rate.
Need a video on the latest Farm Protests 2.0
Interesting CTC. But it is old news and old analysis for those millions of viewers across the world who watch Palki on VANTAGE.
This is a lesson for Indian voters. Never vote an authoritarian govt. It only appears good in the short term. Sadly, India has no good alternative right now. Congress is a joke because of which INDIA alliance is broken. But I would still vote for opposition, because strong opposition means less authoritarian govt.
You are just a clo*wn
Authoritarian government are Authoritarian cause they don't need to face elections every few years. Stop inserting your agenda in everything that happens in world 😂
BJP is not authoritarian, they are perfect. Congress and INDI Alliance is completely corrupt. Long live BJP
@@geosongaming2850 the perfect party which got caught stealing votes in Chandigarh Mayor election ? that sort of perfect ?
3 to 4 percent growth is still a solid growth for a very large economy like China's. But that closes the argument whether China can overtake the US as the largest economy. It will not!
Good story.
Numbers look bit shaky but the quality of life is still high standard then any Indian city
According to maNy economists and China experts, China had collapsed 30 years ago. But what has happened? IMHO, PPP term of calculating GDP in which China alteady the world largest in 2014 till today is more accurate. Why bcoz US can play interest and printing money to boost its economy at the expense of the world. Anyway, shares and financial services accountable a largest portion if US's GDP and not hard tangible assets or products outputs. So whats your take?
As regard to US housing bubble in 2008, did US collapsed. Instead u r commenting that US is growing by more borrowing and in a era of dedollarisation trend.
It's true that many had moved out from China, so do many that r from Chinese own companies. Eg BYD is building big factories in Brazil, Hungry, Thailand, Japan, Mexico and even India too, right. Huge steel mills are moved to Asean nations too.
In general, which major countries in thr world had achieved a better growth with no problems and also in scale.
As for India, it is still 5-6x smaller than China even China has zero growth this year. In reality, China is forecasting 5% growth for a GDP 6x times larger if that makes any sense.
Again about the accuracy or its govt's credibility or capabilty of China's growth figures since the past and now, today China if you visited there lately speak much louder than any experts or economists had predicted or expected.
Heard from CNBC today, The Next China will not be India or Vietnam, It is still China!
Now I am left wondering about how India would fare on the same metrics- consumption share in the world consumption pie/ GDP share in the world GDP pie, implications of total factor productivity and how India has fared
Not very good since we are still a smaller economy .
Why are you not calling Mr Basant Maheshwari on OTC?
Why no sandeshkali?
Can we have a video on how the Chinese economic fiasco will affect the world... in particular India?
Its just like stocks of large cap companies. Those companies are so big that they cant grow at pace.
Same with China. Its economy is so big that its difficult to maintain and sustain the growth
Authoritarianism also prevents immigration which could have balanced the lack of enough babies.
This will have ripple effects on all economies, especially in Africa or even Pakistan, that have become reliant on Chinese investment
They are building infra assets..... I dont think they crash..... They just slow like Japan