@a16z why don't Marc and Ben start a fund-of-funds or a Reg +A (to let us join in investing) to get money together to make the Shenzhen of America: in Houston, Texas? Buy 10-miles square and develop it. Get a Federal and State declaration making it a Special Economic Zone for the new businesses to operate tax-free for the first 5 years of operations to help them get started.
Keep in mind that these two are at the pinnacle of the VC-backed founder-led company building model. The guys on the All-in podcast are greedy, second tier VC attention-whores. This podcast and the two Brads' podcast are much higher value.
Would love to have you guys speak to Chinese VCs, founders, and engineers to better understand the HOW and WHY things work in China. Come to Shanghai or Shenzhen, and do a podcast.
Its more important for Marc to keep Americans under the impression that the US is the world leader. If they showcase the robotics fairs in Shanghai and Shenzhen on any large scale, Americans would realize that Marc is full of bs, and that the US has zero chance of controlling the world.
One note to the german car industry. It is not only important for the country’s economy, but also for many other countries as well as a bunch parts are manufactured abroad. One example is hungary. So the failing of german car industry has a ripple effect on much many levels
Yes, this is why many people, Peter Zeihan being one of them, have predicted the end of the EU in the next few years. I don't know when it will happen, but I'm surprised it stayed so long. The different levels of labor costs and taxes across the countries didn't really make sense long term. Curious I have heard that Soros is not allowed into Hungary, is this correct?
DoD only uses off-the-shelf drone technology for experimental and information warfare purposes. It does not employ DJI in field operations. In the few cases where it does use Chinese drone technology, it's mainly for the purpose of testing our systems against there's. And California may be the most heavily regulated state in terms of industry, California still produces the most startups of any state and entices the most venture capital $. Per capita, California is somewhere in the middle of how many fledgling startups originate in the state (25th).
Suddenly I'm kinda blown away by what's going on in the world. I imagine this might be a little bit like when planes or nuclear were taking off. Also blown away that I can listen to such a high level convo while taking the dog, or maybe robot for a walk..
Agreed, I am also saddened by the fact that the only real way that you would know this is if you have physically left the US in the last 5 years. Aka this seemingly happened quickly, though I know it was decades in the making.
In a way, the US should hope that DJI gets weaponized in some way. This would be similar to the US weaponizing the financial system. The actual damage from a weaponized DJI would probably be quite limited but the long term consequence for the Chinese industrial sector would be massive. That being said, it's a great episode that highlights the importance of industrial innovation. General robotics is also a chance for the US to leap frog and create a new generation of industrial supply chain that's fully automated. They have to becareful of their tariffs though, those new industrial companies will probably be better served by leveraging the existing low cost chinese supply chain to create the new market. Otherwise, you'll get the situation that the auto industry is in where the US can't innovate fast enough because their own domestic market is not as receptive for EVs. Without a robust domestic market, all the US robotics companies will be fighting an uphill battle.
This has already been disastrous for US soft power. Over use of sanctions and restrictions has weakened the US influence, alienated allies and empowered competitors just look at the expansion of BRICS, Russian sanctions failed and the quality of products the Americans and Europeans people are left with. For instance, the UK spent billions to replace Huawei after americas sanctions and til today doesnt have true 5G. Its simple, America has to compete and it has to do so fast.
It’s like talking about iPhone, which is sold in tens of millions in China, being weaponized. No, it’s not worth doing for Apple as it is not worth for DJI. The gain would be small, and the negative impact wildly be huge. It’s a silly argument.
as someone in the industry and in the know, overall very accurate assessment of the industries you spoke of, political situation, robotics, technology, china etc, present and future.
The thing about having "a computer in every home" or "smartphone in every pocket" is that you didn't have to worry about those things being physically able to pick up a weapon. Imagine mass-produced humanoid robots, so cheap that just about everyone has one. Probably they'd even be subscription-based with no down payment. It'd be a no-brainer, of course you'd get one to clean your house, do your laundry, cook your food, etc. Then one day, they all get a software update...
my problem with these podcasts is that A speaks at a pace perfect to my liking and Z I prefer listening to at 1.5x. Would be good to have anAI Agent just automate this for me.
The length of time for environmental reviews, impact statement, need not be so lengthy. This factor provides obstructionists whose underlying motive is not the environmental objection, but other objections, and, so, the environmental objections are a cover for those motives.
Interesting breakdown on the dependencies in supply chains! Robotics and AI certainly open doors, but reliance on complex, international supply networks is a real vulnerability.
A pretty solid synopsis but this is a longform inter-active back & forth. So... your expected to go a little deeper & more reflective. Not just summarize the news! China's assembly advantage is (as stated) multi-factorial. So we will have to address that, going forward.
Great conversation! Something I'm curious about is how you guys think the software issues within robotics will get resolved. The approach that Tesla is taking with self driving cars and gathering huge amounts of data definitely can work, however the car is useful without self driving whereas humanoid robots without spatial awareness are not as useful. I'm thinking there will need to be some kind of breakthrough in computer science, maybe with simulations, to train the robots to do basic tasks.
Apple sells tens of millions of iPhones a year in China, full of personal data and location, while DJI is sold in tens of thousands in the US. I ask you, which one would pose a greater danger in times of conflicts?
Wow you guys are on another level ,,, 40 years ago I timed the length of time it took for our new sanitation trucks to dump it's load ..Japanese 1.30min, both Britain and the U.S. 15.30min sad ta I have moved to the U.S. and these vehicles are still in use...And I must say I was shocked seeing to see union leaders begging Biden to ban electric vehicles...
With due respect, investors seem to harbor dogma that the environment (really the biotic community) is trashable/erasable. It's like there's some belief that a fully mechanized planet is best for all (not just humans). I have some doubts this is the wisest persepctive.
15:45 - this happened because of the work of W Edwards Demming. He offered to show the US how to build better but they snubbed him so he took his ideas to Japan lol
Unions get integrated into company management and production procedures and policies which has a huge effect on how the company can be managed and even structured. The Musk enterprise companies just cannot co-exist with unions.
Agreed. He changes things and moves to improve things aggressively if things aren't going correctly. Having to deal with a Union on top would have destroyed Tesla. I think he still thinks like a software engineer, but with hardware. The good and bad part of that is sometimes you accidentally "delete" something that is essential, and then you have to re-add it in later.
Hey Marc and Ben, have you guys considered building the "Shenzhen" and "Shanghai" of America in Houston, Texas? Natural port with tons of oil, easy natural gas, steel is produced in TX and a bunch of other coastal states, NC has the silicone. The natural port allows for cheap international shipping. I would build it inland 15 miles of Houston to avoid the hurricanes. Perhaps with Trump and Abbot you could request that a 15-mile square chunk of land could be in a Special Economic Zone where manufacturers would get a tax break for the first 5-10 years after they open their doors. To enable them to get production up and running. It's also close to our largest port, Laredo, Texas for cheaper labor and parts produced in Mexico. Until Optimus comes online.
HA. Great convo but the idea that Elon is going to save the EV industry in America is laughable. The man is full of empty promises, the Tesla build quality is shit, and "full self driving" has been five years away every year for the past decade.
Are some of these complaints about the government picking on Elon a bit of the Princess and the Pea level of complaint, only in Elon's case, the government has provided the pillows, the mattresses, etc., but, damn, there is that pea problem.
Sadly the German economy has been doing terribly and last year close to 4000 companies filed for bankruptcy, many of which are Mittelstand, the backbone of the German manufacturing might.
Featherbedding, which is what the interviewee is saying the Long Shoremen's (sp) Union having achieved, is as kind of rot in the system. Note, on another line, the interviewee is objecting to the US not having the logistics or down stream components environment on the one hand, yet he is advocating openness to the low priced imports of those components, as well as the whole item. This reminds me of the from my political science and management of public affairs classes that "We can solve about any problem if we forget about all the others."
There is a contradiction in your reasoning: If you assume that general purpose robotics is truly happening (aka one humanoid form-factor being able to do all the work/automation) the supply chains don't matter that much. You don't need shenzhen-level expertise and diversity because there are just not that many parts to begin with. Elon will probably be able to vertically integrate the production of most parts directly into one company instead of requiring a net of suppliers in the region (or even country). I believe the more the general purpose robotics thesis comes to fruition the less worrysome the supply chain would be. Apart from that I think the big surprise will be teleoperation. Imagine 10000 off-shore workers teleoperating humanoids in Tesla factories 24/7. I think we are much closer to this than most people think
You two should quietly revisit your assertions as to relative merits of the various car brands. I'm a longstanding panelbeater. You should check with your local panel guys. They'll give you the unvarnished truth about the merits of the various brands.
Had to stop 8 mins in because the interviewer just doesn’t stop yapping and following discursive trains of thought. Just get to the point, dude! (Constructive criticism-not trying to put you down).
Good points, but overdrawn and overly sweeping and overly generalized at numerous points. Still, his complaints pose important, even crucial points needing policy attention. One can expect not only damaging lagging on the one hand and overly simplification tendencies on the other hand. It is the old and crude adage, "Don't throw the baby out with the bath water"
The gargantuan mountains you'd have to move in order to bring manufacturing back to the US is very troubling for our future. We don't have the labor environment for it. We have a cultural disdain for 'factory' work. We have an over-educated, under-practical workforce and a massive amount of stragglers that aren't even part of unemployment statistics. We valorize the abstract, office-space work and we punish and offshore the industry we depend on. Maker spaces are a seed for moving forward, but they're only a seed. They're expensive and they're only fit for prototyping and small-scale small-run bespoke products - where, if there is any kind of profit to be made, it's instantly sent as a design overseas. We don't have the infrastructure to build a supply chain that would support the scale of manufacturing we would need. We would need to repeal the Jones Act limitations, we would need to get far cozier with re-establishing train-based freight, and we would need to loosen the restrictions on raw materials refining. There are so many hurdles.
California and the U.S. government has provided insane opportunities for Elon Musk to become a billionaire. You're anti-regulation rants is laughable. Supporting Trump on character alone speaks volumes to who Marc is.
I see this show underlining the stringent environmental review process in the U.S., but the other side of the coin is the massive influx of subsidies that China provides robotics startups. China does have a streamlined environmental review process, but it provides massive amounts of startup capital as well.
Bro you put a full lidar sensor from China is your home? You know they don't have the same restrictions on data collection that we do here right...You can take a guess why it's "so cheap". They are making their money harvesting spatial data. And then when war times comes you're wondering "why are chinese robotics so great a spatial navigation?" it's because you trained them. You wanted to save a little bit of money and shunned anyone in the US who wants to make this but can't because they can't compete on price.
The good thing is the US is leading in the software side?? (which btw not even entirely clear to say rn, China??) Great attempt at imperialist propaganda bud 🥴👍🏽
@@passiveaction So idk who you're responding to but I agree. I think some may have misinterpreted my reply as anti-China lol America is absolutely devolving & the fact that we're supposedly/apparently leading in the AI race will not be a good thing in the long or short term.
At some point during this conversation the two say that in California they hate America, somewhat humorously. Can someone explain to a non-American WHAT did they mean and WHY? thanks
It's right wing talking point . California stands against everything republican believe they have heavy taxes and government regulations but is the strongest economy in the state and is littearly no 4 I'm the world . None of right wing states come close even when they have everything the right claim they need .
They're joking that many californians haven't touched grass recently and don't know anybody who does strenuous labour outside of a gym. It's the idea that middle America is the real America. And that California is a sunny existence that allows you to develop viewpoints that don't represent or connect with the rest of the nation.
Quick thought in the USA, the reason they call them "States" is an indication that they are like 50 different countries. There are a lot of similarities, but there are tons of differences too. Lifelong Californian here. There are MANY reasons why they joked about how California (Government and the Leftists) hates America. Like others have said there are a few big cities that are very blue, and the rest of the state is red. They are saying this because Governor Newsome just made it ILLEGAL to ask any one for ID to vote. Aka I could have my 5-year-old niece walk in and vote. This is not ok. Its been for a long time that 18-year-old's with a state or local government ID is required. Leftists have also imported +3 million illegals into California over the last 15 years, so it will never have a chance of being anything other than blue. Another example is how SF has been a city that has had +10 years of open homeless, homeless pooping on the streets, peoples cars get broken into, so they roll the windows down and open the trunks so that people won't break them to get into the car, there are literally City funded places where people can get clean needles and drugs to shoot up with. When Xi came to SF (NOT Washington DC....) Gavin Newsom had ALL of this was cleaned up between the Airport and the hotel where they were at. They put up metal gates and tons of CCP flags. The only people there waving American flags were Chinese-Americans who had escaped to America, and don't want the CCP anywhere near America. Also they are transing children without any parents consent. Basically California is the closest thing to the CCP in America. And it wasn't this way when I was a kid. It has gotten much more Leftist (not Liberal) over the last 15 years. Also California actively chases away businesses out of the state through unnecessary litigation and regulation. Tesla leaving California is a prime example. There used to be 5 plus big auto manufacturers in California in the 1970's-1980's, but the unnecessary regulation crushed it and forced them ALL to move to some easier place. Now instead in Southern California we had many of the S&P 500 companies who had headquarters down in Orange County due to the nice weather, but the government regulation has become so crazy that most of them have left the state for Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and others. The government is killing our country. We have to cut it back to be able to breathe or do anything. That is what Ben and Marc were talking about. An example they said in the video was with the DJI drones. America had innovated them. Then Leftists overregulated them, China put 0 regulation on them, and they improved and became less expensive until they are what they are. This has happened wayyyyy too often. Its like Leftist work with the CCP to crush the middle class in the US.
Niether one of these men is current to AI models now, Today Oct 29, having already plotted weapons usage efficiency to factory worker' family medical costs abatement. But yah know, the fillty rich are bored, and need to do something.
This video was fascinating until it veered into inaccuracies and political rants. Claiming Musk "created Tesla" and equating U.S. drone companies with DJI stretches credibility. While they rightly highlight the strengths of the Chinese car industry, they oddly shift blame for the struggling American car industry to government policies rather than addressing deeper systemic issues within the industry itself. The over-reliance on Elon Musk as a "savior" of the American car industry feels misplaced, especially considering Tesla's heavy reliance on its Shanghai manufacturing base. The reality is that Chinese companies, driven by a culture of teamwork and long-term planning, are outpacing their American counterparts, where individualism often takes precedence. Later, when Marc and Ben discuss the superiority of Chinese robotics, they again place blame on the U.S. government and unions rather than examining broader societal and cultural challenges. The root issue seems to be America's fragmented and highly competitive culture, which fosters division rather than collaboration. This divide is evident in the media's exploitation of conflict and the country's declining life expectancy, signalling deeper systemic issues. For America to compete effectively, it needs a cultural shift-one that prioritizes teamwork, health, and mutual support over zero-sum competition. Without addressing these foundational issues, political blame-shifting won’t solve the country's challenges. As they correctly note, America has been on a downward trajectory for decades, but the problems run far deeper than any one administration or political ideology.
elon musk is a repulsive and untrustworthy person - that's why he gets so much litigation. the majority of people find him absolutely abhorrent and repulsive. we all wish there was someone who would replace him - keep all of the good engineering, industry and innovation but ditch the guy. imagine that!! now that's a utopia to believe in!! great engineering without this gross guy. ai needs to replace musk!!!
"at a certain point you just want the market to work"...A Free Market does not mean a Free Market infused with imports from a Non-Free Market. This is not "The Market Working" this is a broken system leeching off a profit generating system. The only reason why so called capitalists promote global trade is to personally make money. It's just stupid. It's not fair to have to compete with a "no rules" economy that is propped up by government ownership and subsidies. An American business can not be expected to compete with the entire world. Even American citizens don't care about supported (buying from ) american businesses if it's SLIGHTLY more expensive. Give me a break guys. At a certain point you have to bite the bullet and support and protect Americas free market otherwise it will be picked to pieces by the entire world.
The tesla manufacturing example is misleading - Marc ignores the subsidies from California and the Fed govt that helped Tesla.... But hey, when you have an agenda, some facts are to be ignored
What subsidies? The ones that everyone gets without asking The only subsidy they got was a DOE loan office programme for EVs for $480 million for Tesla The $7500 tax credit isn't for Tesla it's for Americans and it's a tax rebate. The carbon credits are a law because if you Make EVa you don't make ICE You're the only one with an agenda with lies
Do you think ford and GM didn't get $11 billion from bailout or ford got a $5 billion loan it hasn't paid back and grants Tesla got one single loan. That's the only subsidy
german car industry is going to zero, the charts are gross. their market share is dropping so regardless of how good their supply chain is, they are not good. the only manufactures that will survive are TSLA and BYD
The problem with this is this is boomer the podcast and they aren't taking the upcoming election as seriously as it should. All this talk is moot if Trump loses.
And the fact tens of millions of iPhone are sold every year in China, nobody talks about them being potentially weaponized against China in the same way. It’s fear-mongering at its best. 😢
jesus christ guys - i'm sorry, but you don't have a clue about the intricacies of union culture, how power and society works in mass populations where there is no homogeneity so there have to be informal deals that ensure social cohesion which prevents civil unrest and allows free trade to work... you won't get social agreement without making deals with all strata of society (not only elon musk wants to survive, you bozos)... business, engineering and manufacturing is only one part of the story here... such myopic thinking is the reason why these musk fundamentalists are so dumb.
@@datanewt6938 no idea what socialists want and how they want to pay for it. but anti-social libertarians want us all to pay them too higher price for their extreme anti-social fantasies. why doesnt musk just apply for a government job if he wants to work for the US? he wouldnt even get past the background checks. he should just leave our common goods alone. leave government to common decision making, and play by the rules of the common market. what a selfish idiot. what a cheat.
@@datanewt6938 don't know what socialists want or how they want to pay for it but libertarian extremists like musk should leave our common goods such as government and our the free (and fair) market alone. they're constantly trying to make us all pay for their extreme fantasies when we dont want them.
Very much agreed. With the GPS and engine killing software freaks me out. I don't want the Government to institute some Bill Gates 15-min city hellscape.
I'm past 1/2 way and this just seems to be rambling about automobiles. How is that related to the arms race? Plus, no mention of Anduril Industries. Sorry but this one was a waste of time for me!
Because that's what happened in ww2 and how you get an industrial base You don't get warplanes without a manufacturing sector for cars. Andruril is great but... where's their actual factory capacity? They are a startup still
@@TheMagicJIZZ I think they are a bit more than a startup, but I still very much agree with your sentiment. The US due to trade policies and politicians selling out their own countrymen, have hollowed out manufacturing in the US. It is a very real problem if we were to get in a war. Even if not, most of America is underemployed or under compensated (in relation to the value of what they can afford with their USD), due to the outsourcing of all of our goods. We need to bring back manufacturing and dramatically increase automation/robotics.
@TheMagicJIZZ you're as I'll informed as the people in the podcast. Talking about how it was in WW2 isn't New Global Arms Race. Ukraine is building drones in basements. Not large manufacturing facilities, BASEMENTS! With a title like this, they should be talking about done swarms or drones with advanced AI that can find their intended target even if the enemy is using drone jammers. I have some sad news for you, you're what Sam Altman calls a median human. Good luck with AI.
Can we get a take on how Trump’s proposed tariffs are going to impact us? You guys talk a lot about how California and Democratic policies stifle innovation and ability to build but what about what’s up and coming?
Nah. If I wanted to only hear leftist propaganda and lies I would just watch the Corporate Press. No reason to watch them lie to people on TH-cam or a podcast.
Russia is finally breaking through Ukraine's southern front in big ways. They have a huge drone advantage and are able to hit targets at will with hunter drones working 24/7 looking for enemy targets.
Are you drunk ? Mr vodsky ? Russia gdp is half Texas is such small ignorant full of s... Society hahah and on top of it they wont access AI power 🤣 so they will be north korea or worst maybe china takes over russia bc Chinese in reality hate russians
If Russia had that advantage that would be a terrible thing for the peace and stability of the rest of the world. It's a much more nuanced reality. Ukraine has managed to field a million drones themselves. Their manufacturing is increasing at a great speed. The question is whether or not the west and particularly the US military industrial complex can actually change to make it work in the new age where munitions need to be far cheaper and intelligent. If you believe your ideas on Russia being the one dominating in drones then you should actually check out the information coming out of Russian soldiers on the Frontline who lived in constant fear of Ukrainian drones. It is clearly brutal on both sides. At the level of innovation is amazing. Have a look at Ukraine's dragon drones for one example. Right now Russia has nothing to counter that.
This new form of warfare is terrifying. Imagine battle fields in the future will have men running for their lives being chased by a drone that cost 1/50th of their annual labor costs...
Watch Part 1 of this conversation ("How An AI Bot Became a Crypto Millionaire"): th-cam.com/video/EKspo1FLj-4/w-d-xo.html
@a16z why don't Marc and Ben start a fund-of-funds or a Reg +A (to let us join in investing) to get money together to make the Shenzhen of America: in Houston, Texas? Buy 10-miles square and develop it. Get a Federal and State declaration making it a Special Economic Zone for the new businesses to operate tax-free for the first 5 years of operations to help them get started.
This conversation needs a much bigger audience. Hope Marc does some rounds, like the All in Podcast and such.
nah they're good being chill and conservative
@@Eggs-n-Jakey makes sense, national security issues are a pretty chill.
@@bnjiodyn they can be when the hosts aren't speaking poorly about an a16z defense founder
Keep in mind that these two are at the pinnacle of the VC-backed founder-led company building model. The guys on the All-in podcast are greedy, second tier VC attention-whores. This podcast and the two Brads' podcast are much higher value.
@@joythought I personally like both A16Z and All-In. Same with anything Balaji is in. Who are the two Brads you are refering to?
The only pod that make sense on the internet.. It's like a the Atlantic ocean pouring in the Sahara desert . Please do more podcast.
Would love to have you guys speak to Chinese VCs, founders, and engineers to better understand the HOW and WHY things work in China. Come to Shanghai or Shenzhen, and do a podcast.
Its more important for Marc to keep Americans under the impression that the US is the world leader. If they showcase the robotics fairs in Shanghai and Shenzhen on any large scale, Americans would realize that Marc is full of bs, and that the US has zero chance of controlling the world.
One note to the german car industry. It is not only important for the country’s economy, but also for many other countries as well as a bunch parts are manufactured abroad. One example is hungary. So the failing of german car industry has a ripple effect on much many levels
Yes, this is why many people, Peter Zeihan being one of them, have predicted the end of the EU in the next few years. I don't know when it will happen, but I'm surprised it stayed so long. The different levels of labor costs and taxes across the countries didn't really make sense long term.
Curious I have heard that Soros is not allowed into Hungary, is this correct?
Love listening to Marc Andreessen
always enjoy these convos - thanks for doing them
Heh
Very insightful, Thank you both Marc and Ben for your time!
DoD only uses off-the-shelf drone technology for experimental and information warfare purposes. It does not employ DJI in field operations. In the few cases where it does use Chinese drone technology, it's mainly for the purpose of testing our systems against there's. And California may be the most heavily regulated state in terms of industry, California still produces the most startups of any state and entices the most venture capital $. Per capita, California is somewhere in the middle of how many fledgling startups originate in the state (25th).
A first time listener and this was great use of my time to hear from both heavy weights.
Suddenly I'm kinda blown away by what's going on in the world. I imagine this might be a little bit like when planes or nuclear were taking off. Also blown away that I can listen to such a high level convo while taking the dog, or maybe robot for a walk..
Agreed, I am also saddened by the fact that the only real way that you would know this is if you have physically left the US in the last 5 years. Aka this seemingly happened quickly, though I know it was decades in the making.
In a way, the US should hope that DJI gets weaponized in some way. This would be similar to the US weaponizing the financial system. The actual damage from a weaponized DJI would probably be quite limited but the long term consequence for the Chinese industrial sector would be massive. That being said, it's a great episode that highlights the importance of industrial innovation. General robotics is also a chance for the US to leap frog and create a new generation of industrial supply chain that's fully automated. They have to becareful of their tariffs though, those new industrial companies will probably be better served by leveraging the existing low cost chinese supply chain to create the new market. Otherwise, you'll get the situation that the auto industry is in where the US can't innovate fast enough because their own domestic market is not as receptive for EVs. Without a robust domestic market, all the US robotics companies will be fighting an uphill battle.
This has already been disastrous for US soft power. Over use of sanctions and restrictions has weakened the US influence, alienated allies and empowered competitors just look at the expansion of BRICS, Russian sanctions failed and the quality of products the Americans and Europeans people are left with. For instance, the UK spent billions to replace Huawei after americas sanctions and til today doesnt have true 5G. Its simple, America has to compete and it has to do so fast.
It’s like talking about iPhone, which is sold in tens of millions in China, being weaponized. No, it’s not worth doing for Apple as it is not worth for DJI. The gain would be small, and the negative impact wildly be huge. It’s a silly argument.
Coneheads was a great movie. Not sure what reminded me of that.
as someone in the industry and in the know, overall very accurate assessment of the industries you spoke of, political situation, robotics, technology, china etc, present and future.
Does anyone have a source for Marc's comment at 30:58 re: the prior bargaining agreements?
(I believe Marc, I just want to read more about it).
I was thinking that Mark was very paranoid, but now understand that he has reason about the future of America. Thank you for this talks.
Hows Flow doing? There's not much news on it - is it still going?
The thing about having "a computer in every home" or "smartphone in every pocket" is that you didn't have to worry about those things being physically able to pick up a weapon. Imagine mass-produced humanoid robots, so cheap that just about everyone has one. Probably they'd even be subscription-based with no down payment. It'd be a no-brainer, of course you'd get one to clean your house, do your laundry, cook your food, etc. Then one day, they all get a software update...
akchtuallhyy the xiaomi su7 is not the one in the picture (it looks much better, that yellow thing I have no idea what it is)
my problem with these podcasts is that A speaks at a pace perfect to my liking and Z I prefer listening to at 1.5x. Would be good to have anAI Agent just automate this for me.
The length of time for environmental reviews, impact statement, need not be so lengthy. This factor provides obstructionists whose underlying motive is not the environmental objection, but other objections, and, so, the environmental objections are a cover for those motives.
Interesting breakdown on the dependencies in supply chains! Robotics and AI certainly open doors, but reliance on complex, international supply networks is a real vulnerability.
A pretty solid synopsis but this is a longform inter-active back & forth. So... your expected to go a little deeper & more reflective. Not just summarize the news!
China's assembly advantage is (as stated) multi-factorial. So we will have to address that, going forward.
Thank you Marc for addressing these issues, big fan.
Who is the guy in dubai they are talking about
Correct. AI is the new global arms race. The leader takes all.
Great episode. But man, I wish Marc would talk a bit slower.
The german car industry is about 5% of their gdp i think you chemical export is much higher.
Great conversation! Something I'm curious about is how you guys think the software issues within robotics will get resolved. The approach that Tesla is taking with self driving cars and gathering huge amounts of data definitely can work, however the car is useful without self driving whereas humanoid robots without spatial awareness are not as useful. I'm thinking there will need to be some kind of breakthrough in computer science, maybe with simulations, to train the robots to do basic tasks.
After spending over a decade in Silicon Valley, it is nice to feel almost home again listening to Mark and Ben, thank you!
Thank you Ben and Marc for the work you do and thanks for talking to the folks in DC!
Apple sells tens of millions of iPhones a year in China, full of personal data and location, while DJI is sold in tens of thousands in the US. I ask you, which one would pose a greater danger in times of conflicts?
Wow you guys are on another level ,,, 40 years ago I timed the length of time it took for our new sanitation trucks to dump it's load ..Japanese 1.30min, both Britain and the U.S. 15.30min sad ta I have moved to the U.S. and these vehicles are still in use...And I must say I was shocked seeing to see union leaders begging Biden to ban electric vehicles...
This podcast does not appear on Apple for either Ben & Marc Show nor The A16Z Podcast.
With due respect, investors seem to harbor dogma that the environment (really the biotic community) is trashable/erasable. It's like there's some belief that a fully mechanized planet is best for all (not just humans). I have some doubts this is the wisest persepctive.
America's robotics future feels like a self-driving car, innovative software stuck in a hardware traffic jam.
I'd love for someone to steelman this. Suppose you have total control and can put any firmware on DJI hardware, how exactly do you exfil video data?
Great Video
15:45 - this happened because of the work of W Edwards Demming. He offered to show the US how to build better but they snubbed him so he took his ideas to Japan lol
Awesome
That is crazy how we are stifling the benefits of technology by having to pay individuals that were replaced by automation technology to not work
the dock worker situation is quite hopeless, I feel it is dragging everyone with them from moving forward if not backward.
Refreshing to stumble on a podcast where people talk sense for a change
Unions get integrated into company management and production procedures and policies which has a huge effect on how the company can be managed and even structured. The Musk enterprise companies just cannot co-exist with unions.
Agreed. He changes things and moves to improve things aggressively if things aren't going correctly. Having to deal with a Union on top would have destroyed Tesla.
I think he still thinks like a software engineer, but with hardware. The good and bad part of that is sometimes you accidentally "delete" something that is essential, and then you have to re-add it in later.
Who are the guys here . Real informative pod
that's scary. the fact that news + gov are attacking elon instead of enabling him to go faster is scary as hell.
You have your variables mixed up. Enabling the musk is obviously what's scary
@@rawfromnowherewhat's scary about musk? He only cares for mars. No interest in anything else but goals and side hustles to get there
Not only Elon, but all of us. Elon is AN example, but they are attacking AMERICAN manufacturing. Gov hate's humanity.
For decades these same guys voted for the people & policies that they are now worrying about. At least Silicon Valley is finally coming to its senses.
we need a demo of the unitree dog
Hey Marc and Ben, have you guys considered building the "Shenzhen" and "Shanghai" of America in Houston, Texas?
Natural port with tons of oil, easy natural gas, steel is produced in TX and a bunch of other coastal states, NC has the silicone.
The natural port allows for cheap international shipping.
I would build it inland 15 miles of Houston to avoid the hurricanes. Perhaps with Trump and Abbot you could request that a 15-mile square chunk of land could be in a Special Economic Zone where manufacturers would get a tax break for the first 5-10 years after they open their doors. To enable them to get production up and running. It's also close to our largest port, Laredo, Texas for cheaper labor and parts produced in Mexico. Until Optimus comes online.
whats the intro song..... whodidit?
if the chips act weren't held back by adjacent policy bundled with it, would a16z endorse government involvement on that level?
HA. Great convo but the idea that Elon is going to save the EV industry in America is laughable. The man is full of empty promises, the Tesla build quality is shit, and "full self driving" has been five years away every year for the past decade.
Great discussion!
I love this aliens channel
Are some of these complaints about the government picking on Elon a bit of the Princess and the Pea level of complaint, only in Elon's case, the government has provided the pillows, the mattresses, etc., but, damn, there is that pea problem.
Sadly the German economy has been doing terribly and last year close to 4000 companies filed for bankruptcy, many of which are Mittelstand, the backbone of the German manufacturing might.
Featherbedding, which is what the interviewee is saying the Long Shoremen's (sp) Union having achieved, is as kind of rot in the system. Note, on another line, the interviewee is objecting to the US not having the logistics or down stream components environment on the one hand, yet he is advocating openness to the low priced imports of those components, as well as the whole item. This reminds me of the from my political science and management of public affairs classes that "We can solve about any problem if we forget about all the others."
There is a contradiction in your reasoning: If you assume that general purpose robotics is truly happening (aka one humanoid form-factor being able to do all the work/automation) the supply chains don't matter that much. You don't need shenzhen-level expertise and diversity because there are just not that many parts to begin with. Elon will probably be able to vertically integrate the production of most parts directly into one company instead of requiring a net of suppliers in the region (or even country).
I believe the more the general purpose robotics thesis comes to fruition the less worrysome the supply chain would be.
Apart from that I think the big surprise will be teleoperation. Imagine 10000 off-shore workers teleoperating humanoids in Tesla factories 24/7. I think we are much closer to this than most people think
teleoperating agi level robots?
We need to take the lead on solar. We should build the solar farm Elon says could power the country. Also we need UBI.
Don't make enemies.
You two should quietly revisit your assertions as to relative merits of the various car brands. I'm a longstanding panelbeater. You should check with your local panel guys. They'll give you the unvarnished truth about the merits of the various brands.
Had to stop 8 mins in because the interviewer just doesn’t stop yapping and following discursive trains of thought. Just get to the point, dude! (Constructive criticism-not trying to put you down).
Good points, but overdrawn and overly sweeping and overly generalized at numerous points. Still, his complaints pose important, even crucial points needing policy attention. One can expect not only damaging lagging on the one hand and overly simplification tendencies on the other hand. It is the old and crude adage, "Don't throw the baby out with the bath water"
The gargantuan mountains you'd have to move in order to bring manufacturing back to the US is very troubling for our future. We don't have the labor environment for it. We have a cultural disdain for 'factory' work. We have an over-educated, under-practical workforce and a massive amount of stragglers that aren't even part of unemployment statistics. We valorize the abstract, office-space work and we punish and offshore the industry we depend on.
Maker spaces are a seed for moving forward, but they're only a seed. They're expensive and they're only fit for prototyping and small-scale small-run bespoke products - where, if there is any kind of profit to be made, it's instantly sent as a design overseas.
We don't have the infrastructure to build a supply chain that would support the scale of manufacturing we would need. We would need to repeal the Jones Act limitations, we would need to get far cozier with re-establishing train-based freight, and we would need to loosen the restrictions on raw materials refining. There are so many hurdles.
Time for you guys to interview John Mearsheimer.
California and the U.S. government has provided insane opportunities for Elon Musk to become a billionaire. You're anti-regulation rants is laughable. Supporting Trump on character alone speaks volumes to who Marc is.
I see this show underlining the stringent environmental review process in the U.S., but the other side of the coin is the massive influx of subsidies that China provides robotics startups. China does have a streamlined environmental review process, but it provides massive amounts of startup capital as well.
Bro you put a full lidar sensor from China is your home? You know they don't have the same restrictions on data collection that we do here right...You can take a guess why it's "so cheap". They are making their money harvesting spatial data. And then when war times comes you're wondering "why are chinese robotics so great a spatial navigation?" it's because you trained them. You wanted to save a little bit of money and shunned anyone in the US who wants to make this but can't because they can't compete on price.
The good thing is the US is leading in the software side?? (which btw not even entirely clear to say rn, China??) Great attempt at imperialist propaganda bud 🥴👍🏽
@@passiveaction So idk who you're responding to but I agree. I think some may have misinterpreted my reply as anti-China lol
America is absolutely devolving & the fact that we're supposedly/apparently leading in the AI race will not be a good thing in the long or short term.
At some point during this conversation the two say that in California they hate America, somewhat humorously. Can someone explain to a non-American WHAT did they mean and WHY? thanks
It's right wing talking point . California stands against everything republican believe they have heavy taxes and government regulations but is the strongest economy in the state and is littearly no 4 I'm the world . None of right wing states come close even when they have everything the right claim they need .
They're joking that many californians haven't touched grass recently and don't know anybody who does strenuous labour outside of a gym. It's the idea that middle America is the real America. And that California is a sunny existence that allows you to develop viewpoints that don't represent or connect with the rest of the nation.
@@nomoreweebsCalifornia is like a red state with 4 blue cities
Imagine if it split into 4 states
Quick thought in the USA, the reason they call them "States" is an indication that they are like 50 different countries. There are a lot of similarities, but there are tons of differences too.
Lifelong Californian here. There are MANY reasons why they joked about how California (Government and the Leftists) hates America. Like others have said there are a few big cities that are very blue, and the rest of the state is red.
They are saying this because Governor Newsome just made it ILLEGAL to ask any one for ID to vote. Aka I could have my 5-year-old niece walk in and vote. This is not ok.
Its been for a long time that 18-year-old's with a state or local government ID is required. Leftists have also imported +3 million illegals into California over the last 15 years, so it will never have a chance of being anything other than blue.
Another example is how SF has been a city that has had +10 years of open homeless, homeless pooping on the streets, peoples cars get broken into, so they roll the windows down and open the trunks so that people won't break them to get into the car, there are literally City funded places where people can get clean needles and drugs to shoot up with.
When Xi came to SF (NOT Washington DC....) Gavin Newsom had ALL of this was cleaned up between the Airport and the hotel where they were at. They put up metal gates and tons of CCP flags. The only people there waving American flags were Chinese-Americans who had escaped to America, and don't want the CCP anywhere near America.
Also they are transing children without any parents consent.
Basically California is the closest thing to the CCP in America. And it wasn't this way when I was a kid. It has gotten much more Leftist (not Liberal) over the last 15 years.
Also California actively chases away businesses out of the state through unnecessary litigation and regulation. Tesla leaving California is a prime example. There used to be 5 plus big auto manufacturers in California in the 1970's-1980's, but the unnecessary regulation crushed it and forced them ALL to move to some easier place.
Now instead in Southern California we had many of the S&P 500 companies who had headquarters down in Orange County due to the nice weather, but the government regulation has become so crazy that most of them have left the state for Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and others.
The government is killing our country. We have to cut it back to be able to breathe or do anything. That is what Ben and Marc were talking about. An example they said in the video was with the DJI drones.
America had innovated them. Then Leftists overregulated them, China put 0 regulation on them, and they improved and became less expensive until they are what they are. This has happened wayyyyy too often. Its like Leftist work with the CCP to crush the middle class in the US.
Niether one of these men is current to AI models now, Today Oct 29, having already plotted weapons usage efficiency to factory worker' family medical costs abatement.
But yah know, the fillty rich are bored, and need to do something.
It’s happening… as they say.
This video was fascinating until it veered into inaccuracies and political rants. Claiming Musk "created Tesla" and equating U.S. drone companies with DJI stretches credibility. While they rightly highlight the strengths of the Chinese car industry, they oddly shift blame for the struggling American car industry to government policies rather than addressing deeper systemic issues within the industry itself.
The over-reliance on Elon Musk as a "savior" of the American car industry feels misplaced, especially considering Tesla's heavy reliance on its Shanghai manufacturing base. The reality is that Chinese companies, driven by a culture of teamwork and long-term planning, are outpacing their American counterparts, where individualism often takes precedence.
Later, when Marc and Ben discuss the superiority of Chinese robotics, they again place blame on the U.S. government and unions rather than examining broader societal and cultural challenges. The root issue seems to be America's fragmented and highly competitive culture, which fosters division rather than collaboration. This divide is evident in the media's exploitation of conflict and the country's declining life expectancy, signalling deeper systemic issues.
For America to compete effectively, it needs a cultural shift-one that prioritizes teamwork, health, and mutual support over zero-sum competition. Without addressing these foundational issues, political blame-shifting won’t solve the country's challenges. As they correctly note, America has been on a downward trajectory for decades, but the problems run far deeper than any one administration or political ideology.
Based 🚀
elon musk is a repulsive and untrustworthy person - that's why he gets so much litigation. the majority of people find him absolutely abhorrent and repulsive. we all wish there was someone who would replace him - keep all of the good engineering, industry and innovation but ditch the guy. imagine that!! now that's a utopia to believe in!! great engineering without this gross guy. ai needs to replace musk!!!
САЩ ИСТОРИИ
ЗАЩИТИ АЛО МОМЧЕТА
ИМА ДА МИСЛИТЕ ЗА САЩ
ПРЕДИ МИНУТИ СЕ ИСПРАТИХА
ДРЕХИ ПРИ МЕДИЦИНАТА
РЕЦЕПТИТЕ ПОСЛЕ
"at a certain point you just want the market to work"...A Free Market does not mean a Free Market infused with imports from a Non-Free Market. This is not "The Market Working" this is a broken system leeching off a profit generating system. The only reason why so called capitalists promote global trade is to personally make money. It's just stupid. It's not fair to have to compete with a "no rules" economy that is propped up by government ownership and subsidies. An American business can not be expected to compete with the entire world. Even American citizens don't care about supported (buying from ) american businesses if it's SLIGHTLY more expensive. Give me a break guys. At a certain point you have to bite the bullet and support and protect Americas free market otherwise it will be picked to pieces by the entire world.
The tesla manufacturing example is misleading - Marc ignores the subsidies from California and the Fed govt that helped Tesla.... But hey, when you have an agenda, some facts are to be ignored
VCs would not invest in anything that didn't have software margins for 20 years and are now shocked that all the manufacturing is in China...
What subsidies? The ones that everyone gets without asking
The only subsidy they got was a DOE loan office programme for EVs for $480 million for Tesla
The $7500 tax credit isn't for Tesla it's for Americans and it's a tax rebate. The carbon credits are a law because if you Make EVa you don't make ICE
You're the only one with an agenda with lies
Do you think ford and GM didn't get $11 billion from bailout or ford got a $5 billion loan it hasn't paid back and grants
Tesla got one single loan. That's the only subsidy
Elon himself has said that they didn't need it, that it was GM and Ford who bribed the Obama white house to get it. but go off queen
As always government bad everything be best if no regulation pls let billionaires do whatever they want .
I think you mean, pls let people help the people, instead of current status quo which is people can only help people if they are my people
It feels like this channel is dedicated to propaganda.
How? Nothing they said was illogical or unreasonable.
german car industry is going to zero, the charts are gross. their market share is dropping so regardless of how good their supply chain is, they are not good. the only manufactures that will survive are TSLA and BYD
The problem with this is this is boomer the podcast and they aren't taking the upcoming election as seriously as it should. All this talk is moot if Trump loses.
Interesting
Haha, c’mon guys. You seriously don’t believe millions of dji drones will be woken up, fly out of my closet and become a weapon for the CCP?! 😂
The fear mongering is wildddd
And the fact tens of millions of iPhone are sold every year in China, nobody talks about them being potentially weaponized against China in the same way. It’s fear-mongering at its best. 😢
you having millions of dji drones in your closet is such a flex 💪
jesus christ guys - i'm sorry, but you don't have a clue about the intricacies of union culture, how power and society works in mass populations where there is no homogeneity so there have to be informal deals that ensure social cohesion which prevents civil unrest and allows free trade to work... you won't get social agreement without making deals with all strata of society (not only elon musk wants to survive, you bozos)... business, engineering and manufacturing is only one part of the story here... such myopic thinking is the reason why these musk fundamentalists are so dumb.
problem is that some strata of society have wants that are nice in the short term but detrimental to society in the long term, i.e socialists.
@@datanewt6938 no idea what socialists want and how they want to pay for it. but anti-social libertarians want us all to pay them too higher price for their extreme anti-social fantasies. why doesnt musk just apply for a government job if he wants to work for the US? he wouldnt even get past the background checks.
he should just leave our common goods alone. leave government to common decision making, and play by the rules of the common market. what a selfish idiot. what a cheat.
@@datanewt6938 don't know what socialists want or how they want to pay for it but libertarian extremists like musk should leave our common goods such as government and our the free (and fair) market alone. they're constantly trying to make us all pay for their extreme fantasies when we dont want them.
🤟
All this tech in cars is worrying me. Give me cheap car, with buttons and maybe powered windows.
cars have had tech for the last 20+ years now they're just in your face rather than just underneath the structure. what are you worried about?
In countries like Australia, cheap well made Chinese EVs are selling well. I would fear the day that there is a major conflict and my car is bricked.
Powered windows is tech lol
Very much agreed. With the GPS and engine killing software freaks me out. I don't want the Government to institute some Bill Gates 15-min city hellscape.
Do you remember the show bait car
🥸🥸🥸🥸 Short-term profit have short-circuit 🇺🇲‼️ by the Wallstreet.🤣🤣🤣🤣
👍👍✌️🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦➕️✌️👏👏
It all comes down to greed
Elon Musk is going to replace every manufacturing human at Tesla with Optimus
I would love for the US to do that will all the manufacturing jobs in China, but do it here in the US.
German cars are overrated.
Really??? You can't start manufacturing company in US?
yes, the amount of regulations you need to comply with make it borderline impossible
@@datanewt6938But the US is a democracy apparently so don't citizens have the power to change legislation and regulation? 😅
Substandard cars what bullshit. Typical dribble.
I gave this video a try until the sh!t talks about China.
I'm past 1/2 way and this just seems to be rambling about automobiles. How is that related to the arms race? Plus, no mention of Anduril Industries. Sorry but this one was a waste of time for me!
Because that's what happened in ww2 and how you get an industrial base
You don't get warplanes without a manufacturing sector for cars.
Andruril is great but... where's their actual factory capacity? They are a startup still
@@TheMagicJIZZ I think they are a bit more than a startup, but I still very much agree with your sentiment. The US due to trade policies and politicians selling out their own countrymen, have hollowed out manufacturing in the US. It is a very real problem if we were to get in a war. Even if not, most of America is underemployed or under compensated (in relation to the value of what they can afford with their USD), due to the outsourcing of all of our goods. We need to bring back manufacturing and dramatically increase automation/robotics.
@TheMagicJIZZ you're as I'll informed as the people in the podcast. Talking about how it was in WW2 isn't New Global Arms Race. Ukraine is building drones in basements. Not large manufacturing facilities, BASEMENTS! With a title like this, they should be talking about done swarms or drones with advanced AI that can find their intended target even if the enemy is using drone jammers. I have some sad news for you, you're what Sam Altman calls a median human. Good luck with AI.
Ben is a paranoid Chinese hater 😂
Can we get a take on how Trump’s proposed tariffs are going to impact us? You guys talk a lot about how California and Democratic policies stifle innovation and ability to build but what about what’s up and coming?
Masters of Scale Podcast is much better.
Nah. If I wanted to only hear leftist propaganda and lies I would just watch the Corporate Press. No reason to watch them lie to people on TH-cam or a podcast.
wattupp
FIRRRSSSTTT!!!!!!!!
Russia is finally breaking through Ukraine's southern front in big ways. They have a huge drone advantage and are able to hit targets at will with hunter drones working 24/7 looking for enemy targets.
Are you drunk ? Mr vodsky ? Russia gdp is half Texas is such small ignorant full of s... Society hahah and on top of it they wont access AI power 🤣 so they will be north korea or worst maybe china takes over russia bc Chinese in reality hate russians
😅😅😅
If Russia had that advantage that would be a terrible thing for the peace and stability of the rest of the world. It's a much more nuanced reality. Ukraine has managed to field a million drones themselves. Their manufacturing is increasing at a great speed. The question is whether or not the west and particularly the US military industrial complex can actually change to make it work in the new age where munitions need to be far cheaper and intelligent.
If you believe your ideas on Russia being the one dominating in drones then you should actually check out the information coming out of Russian soldiers on the Frontline who lived in constant fear of Ukrainian drones. It is clearly brutal on both sides. At the level of innovation is amazing. Have a look at Ukraine's dragon drones for one example. Right now Russia has nothing to counter that.
This new form of warfare is terrifying. Imagine battle fields in the future will have men running for their lives being chased by a drone that cost 1/50th of their annual labor costs...