FLORIDA'S CONDO CRISIS CONTINUES
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ย. 2024
- Florida's Condo Crisis continues as new laws are set to take hold in the next few months. Owners facing massive assessments are rushing to the exits to avoid the coming onslaught of fees and payments. Meanwhile, buyers are now more cautious then ever as the news of insurance and association problems has gone mainstream.
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Ben Grieco
Broker Associate
Call/Text: 845-674-5290
Email: BenFloridaAgent@gmail.com
SL# 3330499
Coldwell Banker Sunstar Realty
2825 Tamiami Trail, Punta Gorda, FL 33950
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I look forward to your videos because you are straight and too the point. Thank you 🙏
Money is not meant to control people, rather it is meant to be put to work producing more money for you. You cannot build wealth without putting money in its rightful place.
Very possible! especially at this moment. Profits can be made in many different ways, but such intricate transactions should only be handled by seasoned market professionals.
Some persons think inves'tin is all about buying stocks; I think going into the stock market without a good experience is a big risk, that's why I'm lucky to have seen someone like mr Brian.
Brian demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit
I'm surprised that you just mentioned and recommend Mr Brian Nelson. I met him at a conference in 2018 and we have been working together ever since.
Sounds interesting. I was planning to invest some few £ in some coins, stack them up and leave them for a few years, but seeing this changed my mindset. Thank you very much
On the house you had showed for sale people are also looking a bit further down in the listing prices & saw how much it sold for in 2020 $395,000 vs how much it’s going for now & I, for one, shake my head & walk away. Ridiculous. (Love Punta Gorda)
@@1969bones69 7% instead of 3.5%, higher property taxes, higher property insurance, higher hurricane insurance. Sounds like a 450K condo at most.
Needs to come down 50%.then house will sell
Yeap 10 % only above the 2020 sells .
And this is with "full employment" and raging GDP numbers (from printed money of course, but still raging I guess). So what happens to all these condos when the economy has a "traditional" multi-year downturn (which curiously hasn't happened in 15 years).
You are the Michael Bordenaro of SW Florida.
Michael now spends little of his time talking about Florida real estate. The stuff he does talk about is in areas he knows little about. I'll listen to Ben as long as he stays in his wheelhouse.
Michael B seems to tape multiple videos at once. Always the same wife beater on
@@steven4315 I stopped watching him the moment he became too political. I'm more interested in real estate. This guy actually provides value real estate info.👍
Bordenaro puts out nothing put negative videos. Had to stop watching him...
@@michaelhurley545 Same here
The problem with condos is that even if they were literally free all of the assessments with the insurance and with the taxes and high inflation you won't be able to hold on to it forever because eventually if you can't pay the dues for it they'll put a lien against it and then you're forced to sell it with the reduction to pay for the outstanding debt. I wanted to get into one over in Sarasota and it was really cheap and in a great area but when looking at the cost of the HOA dues they were very low and that was concerning because the building was built in the mid-to-late seventies. so 40 years later with hurricanes and being close to the beach and Bay I think it was a good idea not to take it since you would be paying non stop just to be able to have the privilege of selling it when that day does come. It's like a glorified timeshare except your liable for everything. 😅
Home prices are out of reach and not in line with lots of people's salaries. $200K would be at the edge of my budget. There are so many costs involved in home ownership, not just mortgage
From which country are you? This ain't year 2000.
@@bigradwolf5001 The people's republic of Texas
Yeah the median income for areas are skewed for greed. They only account for 1/3 the workforce when running the numbers to average out just below that number. Meanwhile, the other 2/3 of the workforce are what you see when you go out shopping. Everyone from delivery vehicles to the behind the counter employee, to food service. All make well below their median income range. If they accounted for the other 2/3 of the workforce, the median income for let's say lee county florida would be around 35k after averaging it all out. They skew it to justify housing costs out of pure greed. 35k would be for the average individual. Not household.
Though I do see some price drops, they aren't significant. Dropping 10K on a home that's prices at 950K doesn't seem like much of an incentive. And when I see that the home sold in 2020 for 600K, I've got less reason to buy at that the 950K.
"the animals are running". Excellent analogy!
The house that you showed at 3:35 was sold for less than 400k in 2020. It should not cost more than 500k in 2024.
There's part of the problem right there. Get-rich-quick expectations.
Exactly. How does he not see the numbers. Pure greed on owners part. How much could they have put into the place ? Not $400K that's for sure.
Greed my friend. Greed
That’s how inflation works. My cousin bought a house in Jupiter for around 205k in 2012 and sold it to a family from California for $1.95mil she almost sold it to a family from Orlando for 695k but then she got an offer.
@@nmhdez that's not inflation. That's called bidding wars. That actually helps ruin the local economy. Don't blame your cousin for selling an idiot that house for that much money but, that raises all the other comps in the neighborhood. Next thing you know, taxes go up because home values skyrocket, alongside insurance as well. It's cheaper to insure a Hyundai than it is a Mercedes-Benz. I bet the next tax assessment, there will be a big surprise. Those ppl thought they were gonna get away with paying low taxes because your cousin was paying taxes on a home based on what he paid.
Great video like always. You always put solid logic in these as you state angles people usually don’t consider. Rates can’t come down, as it would cause inflation to soar again. We need them higher for longer which makes the dollar more valuable, lowering cost. We owned a few homes in the Tampa/Bradenton area and sold everything in the last 2 years. When realtors started not answering their phones or returning emails and the crazy overbidding, we knew it was time to escape. Now many are late to the party.
My best friend just accepted an offer on his Palm Coast Condo after being on the market for 6 months. He started at 359K, reduced the price 4 times down to 289K, and accepted an offer for 275K. I told him to take it and run.
You're a good friend!
3:50. Sold for $390,000 in late 2020 with low interest rates. Why should it be worth more than say $450,000 today?
Almost bought a condo until this happened. I fully understand the new law and why but there is no way I am going to spend that kind of money for an 1100 ft2 second floor condo. Maybe a nice townhouse but still too rich for my blood.
I have no experience and have no idea what i am talking about.
That being said. Looking at the price history of the house you showed was interesting. 2020 $395,00 to 2024 $867,530 more than double the price. Unless they completely gutted that house with brand new renovations, even then. You gotta be out of your gd mind. From the pictures, i can tell it's cheap shit from homedepot. These prices do not reflect quality, hardware value, or even labor for that matter. I see no true justification, the three Ls of real estate is bullshit too imo. Truly was only listed at that price for the sake of greed. You couldn't pay me to even look at it.
Good video!
Absolutely. People lost common sense and a house that was sold in 2020 for less than 400k should not sell for more than 500k after only 4 years.
We can argue about "should" or "shouldn't" but the truth is, if they were finding suckers to pay that 100% markup before, then that was the true value at that moment. The good thing is, it seems they are rapidly running out of suckers. It honestly wouldn't surprise me at all to see all of Florida revert to 2019 prices eventually. But it will take some years still and it would depend a bit on the passing of the Booner generation as well to get back there.
@@CaptainCaveman1170 Totally agree on the price rationale. Long live capitalism!
Prices in Florida are not aligned with incomes. Agree that prices will get a big correction and could go as low as 2019 level.
These numbers are crazy...HOA "through the roof" (sorry), insurance as well (if you can get it) and declining prices. Who in their right mind? I'm retired in northern Michigan (yeah...the winters suck) but there is simply no way I could afford to live there. The best I can do at this point is a couple of months in a southern state during the worst of the cold season (as long as I can still travel).
I love all the stick framed houses going for $800,000. One good hurricane and it's all gone. There should be ZERO wood framed houses in Southern Florida. And they definitely need to be priced accordingly. $250,000 to $325,000 maximum. I could literally build a prefab two story for $200,000. Floods and hurricanes will have zero effect except for minor repairs.
I remember for sale for rent back in 08..
Can you talk about the upcoming mandate that Florida's put on condos?To list items the building will need by the end of the year to set aside reserves
$1000 HOA on a 3 to 4 hundred thousand condo, and no guarantee that it won't go up is crazy!
“I’d pay 12%-15% if I could buy a home for what baby boomers paid for their homes back in 1955!!”😌😌😌😌
Yeah, the new 8 insurance companies will flock right out of Florida after they pay their first hurricane cost to home owners
Fwiw, reports said a big hurricane season is expected this year.
When price have gone up 300% in some area’s there’s a long way down it needs to go.
I buy and rent out condos. I sold most of my properties at the peak of the market and put the cash into T-Bills waiting on the market bottom to reinvest. My math for calculating rental profit on some of these condos would dictate sales prices would have to drop massively in order to see profit. Here's an example on a $250K 2/2 condo:
HOA Dues= $1,100
Insurance HO6= $100
Taxes= $200
Average rent in the community = $1,800
Just taxes, Insurance and HOA= $1,400 so this would leave $400 for principle and interest. A $400 payment on a 30yr mortgage @7% would be a $60K sale price to break even and this doesn't include maintenance and admin costs.
Does anyone think the seller will come down from $250K to $60K?
This is excellent input and you are spot on. We had a huge run up in investors coming into the condo space, especially after the rates went up and priced them out of homes (the leveraging ones). Now the rents needed to make the numbers work are no longer supported by the market and the sellers are left wondering where all the "Cash Buyers" went for these units?
You are correct and as a former owner occupant I sold for the same reason. I knew the economics made no sense if appreciation would no longer save the day later (and trust me, it WON'T). I'm amazed other people don't realize this!!
@@bensellin The only question is in what form will corrections come? Either interest rates come down which is impossible or the dollar ponzi will collapse, insurance comes down, incomes double or prices collapse. I think in the short term prices will collapse and in the longer term the dollar will collapse. I'm thinking they'll wait to collapse the dollar until they have someone in the White House they can blame for the crash. This is why I shifted 40% into bullion and built a self sufficient house in a self sufficient community.
Really enjoy your videos. Refreshing to see an unbiased breakdown of the data and true analysis of the facts. Not interpretation or opinions. Keep it up!
Much appreciated!
Wow that area looks gorgeous!! Those houses! I could see my self on one of those porches chilling 😎
Ben, your content is always pretty spot on. Good and accurate information. I am a former real estate agent myself prior to the pandemic. Durning that time, you just dealt with normal problems. Today's real estate market is upside down, with a not so bright outlook. If rates go down by just 1 more percent, that will trigger a gigantic buying frenzy, causing all housing supply to completely disappear across the nation and prices will go into the stratosphere. Just my cents. Peace !
Thanks Brother! I agree with you there. If they drop rates 1% I think people will dive in and it could get ugly in a lot of parts of the country again. 6% would look great right now (especially in my area where prices have declined a bit). Even at 7% rates people remember 8% last year and don't want to risk that again either.
@@bensellin I'm not sure I agree with that. Shave a few dollars of your monthly mortgage payment, but that does not solve all the ancillary problems of your pocket being picked from all angles. I would never take that chance. With no cost controls, I'll never be owned by a condo again.
@@MrDCMiami i agree on condos. I was speaking more towards single family home purchases.
Rates decreasing by 1% still keep prices unaffordable for most people waiting on the sidelines.. when prices rose is 300% with taxes & insurance costs.
You are great, love your content
Thank you so much 😀
4:02 flood insurance is the Achilles heal of this house. Mark my words
Freedum from safety regulations is great … until it ain’t anymore.
300k condo in florida is expensive. Then you say its not 800k so its not bad. With that logic might as well say "hey its not a 5 million dollar condo"
There are so many nice homes in your background!!
something to keep in mind: nominal prices can be going up while real prices are going down (WAY DOWN)...
Why the condos are not been rent out also??? On my community we have several for rental.
I will NEVER buy a condo. Badly managed buildings are the norm. Condo boards are a joke,filled with people who know nothing about building maintenance.
Amen
Agree not sure what else to say other than "buyer's market." Gold soaring in price like this hasn't happened since the 1970s so this is a sign for most that there is a crisis in the US Dollar("loss of confidence") not in the price of gold. Anything but arable land suffers greatly in such a crisis with the money as relates to real estate. By way of specific example 10 used John Deere tractors sold for an average price of $80,000 US Dollars just recently when as new would have been far less than half of that so certain people very much taking food very seriously quite suddenly.
Sellers market is over
They haven't realized it yet
Great videos and information you provide. If I was looking in SW Florida I’d definitely hire you.
I appreciate that!
Do not buy‼️ They will go lower 🎉
One more bad hurricane season…
Thank you for the info! Do you think these falling prices will spread to Central Florida? To single family homes? Thank you!
I'm not sure. The reason being, people I work with that found the prices too high here, have started looking in the center of the state because it's currently more affordable. Locals have headed there as well that were priced out. I have to assume this is happening in other coastal areas as well.
I watch the rates and gold every day for the past 7 years. I had an option to buy down my rate in 2022 right at the height and I used 11K of the 16K the builder gave us to buy down the rate a point.The breakeven point is about 28-29 months and I took the risk and bought it down. I have friends who didn't and kept the cash thinking the rates would be down by now.
Even if the Fed lowers rates 75-100 basis points it's not going to help me. I feel like I made the right decision. If I had that cash I would have spent it on something dumb and not invested it like I could have.'
I watch a gold guy who is really well know but I don't want to say his name on here out of respect to Ben, in case he doesn't want to advertise for him. He has been pretty much dead-on accurate with the rates the past few years.
If condo and house prices come down, theoretically the cost to insure them will come down too.
Only if reconstruction costs come down. That would require a deflationary economy, which the Feddies will never do because the entire debt based economic system will collapse at truly frightening speed.
I doubt it its all about the stockholders
Prices need to come way down, high HOA equals a bad investment
Condo docks are not transparent to the new owner
No condo docs, no sale.
Where's everyone going?
Missouri
Still see high pricing when you look on real estate sights. May see 3k to 6k price cuts but that is about it
465k is where that house is headed if not lower.
Its got excellent proximity to downtown Punta Gorda, Fisherman's Village, and Gilcrest Park right across the street. There is something to be said for Location Location Location so we will see.
One thing you can always count on is people complaining. The problem with inflation is accumulated inflation. People who had gold, stock and bought real estate years ago have returns well higher than the inflation rate. If we have deflation, people will complain that they have less equity in their homes. There is equality in complaining. The millionaire and homeless equally complain they do not have enough.
search up the trade up challenge where you have an item to trade and trade it for something worth more than trade that item for something worth more money you can do this with multiple items until you want to sell out and you can do this at conventions,pawn shops,etc or you probably could start a trade convention like a flee market. So if your having no luck in the stock market or don't want all your eggs in 1 basket also I recommend raw gemstones as a secondary option and possibly learning how to cut them....jshsh
So happy i never bought a condo in fla. Yes i have a home here but insurance will go up but condo a nightmare
The east coast is holding up a lot better in the condo market and the single family market. There are price drops but they're off of a hundred and fifty thousand dollar price increases over the last two years.
My cousin was able to sell her 3 bed/2.5 bath home in Jupiter, FL for $1.96 mil. (Mostly in cash) She almost sold it for 705k but then that wealthy family from California bought for above asking. She originally got it for $210k
With that new condo law looming in 2025....older condos may become unsellable because potential buyers are just one bad inspection away from personal bankruptcy!😮😮🙏🙏🙏🙏🙏
Ty
With all of the reality coming to the surface on these condo developments, the truth is that condos are a failed concept in home ownership. It was only hidden by the fact that their underfunding all of these years made them seem like attractive alternatives to single family home ownership, at least for the middle class. But the upper class is usually the smart money, and they will come to realize it too. Give it just 5 years.
It is truly sad to see how many of these developments were underfunded and repairs left by the wayside for years for someone else to foot the bill. Hmmm...sounds familiar?
@@bensellin Hell yeah it sounds familiar!! It's exactly the story of my ex-condo, the one I sold in January. I've told the story before on other videos of yours (maybe you recognize me by name). I can't tell you how relieved I am to have gotten the fuck out of there and left it behind.
It looks like the news narrative of Real Estate is going into crash mode, despite it being spring.
What will it take for the builders to stop building in this area?...I cant believe how many houses are popping up..
The intend to corner the market I believe
Keep them coming. The state needs a lot more inventory to bring these prices down.
Another good one Ben.
The home you showed here as an example sold for $400K 4 years ago and is now priced at $800K so IMHO the minimal price drops are insignificant, AND I think the buying public may be awakening.
In your opinion what are the odds that these huge price increases unwind back to pre Covid levels?
Thanks Alan, I get asked that question a lot and with the inflation we have had its hard for me to see it getting there without some sort of financial crisis. Sometimes I wonder if these price drops are going to be looked at as the correction in the rearview, but I've been wrong before.
@@bensellin I’m just like you. In over 49 years as a Realtor this is the craziest and most unpredictable market I’ve experienced. AND IMHO this inflation is for real on everything from food to bicycles. Good luck Ben and I’m certainly enjoying and learning from your videos.
@@bensellin I’ll share a funny with you. My wife and I research homes and home prices constantly and have for years. One of our chuckles is to see a home listed at twice the price it sold for only a couple of years ago or so, with the heading “ Motivated Seller.” We always chuckle and say well who wouldn’t be motivated to double their money in two years? Of course they’re motivated to do that! 😀💲
Great video as always. There's no way anyone rational could be in favor of the current price recording system where "shadow price reductions" can happen. It's simply dishonest to NOT deduct any and all concessions made from the final purchase price...for the purposes of recording the sale. That means it's a slimy policy that "somehow" became the norm. Lobbying and bribes were involved for sure in my view.
My cousin was able to sell her 2/2 home in Jupiter for $1.95 mil. A wealthy family from California bought for above asking. She originally got it for $210k
This hurricane season will only going to hurt the housing market more.
Who wants to spend hundreds of thousands for a condo with over $1000 HOA monthly fees and possible assessments of tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands?
NO WAY!
A condo owner is just a glorified renter.
@@davidmajer3652 You're a renter AND a buyer!! You spend $300,000 for the privilege of having $2000 in bills each month forever. Just rent and save your $300,000. That money in a 5.5% interest bearing account will pay 2/3 of your fuckin rent!! Buying expecting appreciation is just following the greater fool theory of investing.
How are the Condo sales on Marco Island? Was a dream to retire on Marco......now it's looking like I'll stay here in Ellijay Ga 😊
There are a lot of good reasons to stay put in the mountains and foothills.
Love to hear your comments regarding short term winter rentals. Where do you see that market going?Are there gonna be bargains?Come next winter?
“These condo/town homes/apartments are way out of range for most local people hourly pay “Net” NOT “Gross”!!!!!”#Bigfacts
Is anyone expecting comparable home-pricing drops in The Villages, or due to it's popularity -- and being it's own universe (as they say, "Living in The Bubble") -- are prices going to remain stable there?
-- BR
U can just buy a house for 400k. Hoa is ridiculous.
@@1969bones69 dramatic ppl asking why u didn’t pick ur bin up 3 seconds after the garbage truck leaves etc etc 🤣
Consider doing a live Q&A.
If you saw how many bloopers I have from these videos you would suggest otherwise lol
Greetings 👋🏼 from the simple life ☀️
Not wanting to catch a falling knife.
If history is any indicator of the future, then home prices will keep doubling every 10-20 years, which is the average. But we don't live in average times with how out of control inflation is. Since home prices JUST doubled in the last 5 years, hopefully the next doubling is 10-20 years out lol. But the charts suggest otherwise.
This is true. Historically they trend in one direction lol. Inflation is a really big wild card here.
Never before have we had such an explosion in the ancillary costs of "home ownership." Throw out the old records. It's a new world now. Why would you buy your home if the other costs by themselves equate or exceed the costs of renting?
Why is it that you can walk that far and not see another person? If everyone is always inside they could live some place cheaper.
One big Category 3 or higher hurricane this fall over a populated area, and FL real estate across the entire state will sink. Especially if it's Tampa Bay or Miami-Dade or Broward that's hit. The reverberations will be felt from Pensacola to Key West.
Not Tampa please lol.
Won’t happen in Tampa
@@cypherlock01 / Oh -- someone can read the future!
Great video
Thanks!
Brace, brace, brace - The Boeing economy. (They can't hide it anymore.)
Rates are driving to 9%+++ … Party likes its 1978😂Stagflation
Hm...why do Florida and Texas start to sound more and more like socialist California????
Why would anyone buy right now?
Not seeing a "freefall" but I am starting to see prices return to pre-plandemic prices.
HOA's are still the killer. The price/value for an HOA is just not worth it in most cases. A crappy pool and an immigrant based landscape contract should not cost every condo owner the prices we are seeing. Must be the insurance payments...
Hold your stallion. The bank will NOT refinance your house if you are under water.... the bank might refinance your house for what it is worth at the current market value.. so you will have to bring the difference to the table at closing.... I guarantee 99.99% of banks will not refinance your house due to uncertain price drop...
You keep teasing this basic truth but don’t say it directly. A 7% rate is very good. My parents bought their house in 1960 with a 7% mortgage. So why does it seem so high? When rates went down builders and sellers raised prices because what people can afford is the monthly payment. If rates are low, they don’t want you to take the savings so they raise prices knowing you can/will pay more because of the low rates. Well now rates are at more historical levels. The price increases have to roll back. Get used to rates of 6 to 8%.
400 K 2020
I bet a gentleman $50. that all condos will go down by 50% / 2026. He said that state of Florida will not let it happen because of taxes. What he doesn't realize it won't hurt. The state of Florida, it's to city's, counties. A Roman tomato was .98 cents. Now it's a$1.30. If I do the math, that's a 30% increase, so inflation is what??
The state of Florida doesnt care
Houses need to come down to 2014 levels
I was in Cape Coral this weekend and it is gorgeous! On Zillow it still looks like lots of blue tarps, but not in reality. Maybe when the real estate apps update their satellite map views, buyers will feel more comfortable.
Stay away from cape coral! Lol
You're ripping off another channel, bruh.... 😂....like whut
He’s the best! I wanted another Charlotte county realtor the other day on you tube saying prices are still increasing! Told her she was full of crap!
🥱
Get real---Asking ridiculously high prices and subsequently reducing price to reality, is not a downturn in market. Housing is still in short supply and new builds are 10 years behind population growth.
Love to hear your comments regarding short term winter rentals. Where do you see that market going?Are there gonna be bargains?Come next winter?
Demand still appears very strong for seasonal rentals if they are in good locations. Pricing has to be reasonable if not. Rentals agents I know have been getting calls to book for next season since before December.