Great as always, but today's episode was truly above and beyond on all levels. Especially the touching story and takeaway message toward the tail end. Truly an inspiration at how you guys inspire not just finance but also living legit positive life values. Lance should write a book on parenting, the world needs that. 😂 Thanks Adam and Lance for all that you do!
Wow! Just heard Lance talk at 1:06:25/1:37:12 about savings and wealth. This is the kind of wisdom that is not found on other channels. This is the value that wealthion and Lance bring to the community. Thanks so much, greatly appreciate your show.
Adam & Lance, the weekly recap you guys do is my favourite show on TH-cam. And it's not because of the market news as much as for the stability, common sense, ethics, and morals that I hear from you both. In a world gone mad I'm so glad there are two such great people who can set a shining example for the rest of us. I cried through the ending. It was really moving. Thank you for all you do.
Thanks guys for another great weekly update! I also appreciate your encouragement for all of us to reach out and make a positive impact on the world around us!
That was a truely moving story at the end of this program. First time I ever ended one of your shows with a tear in my eyes. This man deserves to be recognized, too bad it took so long. A true hero.
Thank you Adam and Lance. I happened to buy PG , ABT 😅 and TLT recently , so thanks Lance to share his trading strategy . I will discipline more. I wish I had Lance’s flexibility to switch the gear a few weeks ago🤦🏻♀️…A lot times , the market can not be rationalized…Meanwhile，I love that you guys stretched the topic beyond the personal finance today. The ethics, humanity, public service and etc. were all the great side subjects. This is why I like watching this program. It is not only about bullish or bearish, but also some deeper discussions of the society we live nowadays. Regardless bulls or bears, we all have responsibilities to serve genuinely . ❤
Real learning in action 🎉🎉 very often leads to real earning😊 Thank you, Adam and Lance, for all your discussions about investing. I look forward to listening to you both.
I always enjoyed these talks with Lance but this one stands out. When I noticed Adam getting choaked up while talking about the man that saved so many Jews in WWII, it confirmed what I already suspected, that Adam is a man of high integrity. As a fellow Gen-Xer I really appreciate another man that allows feelings to come through from time to time. We are not just financial beings, we are human beings. Thank you.
Adam, Lance, I hope it is not lost upon you, but you've already become in whatever infinitesimal way your own Nicholas Winton. You have brought together an audience of complete strangers into one place, delivering an educational experience and providing access to information in a way that liberates us from the confines of "mainstream" perception. You guide us week-to-week through the chaos of daily noise both from price action and the countless mouthpieces. I think the most significant parallel between Wealthion and Nicholas Winton is that Winton never asked anything from the people he helped, and you ask nothing of us. You just give. I believe if you were in the right place at the right time, you would do great things no matter how big or small. And that is the essence of people like yourselves, and I imagine the majority of your audience. I hope weekly recaps continue indefinitely. Thank you both.
Great and unexpected injection of compassion and wisdom at the end. Dying with 106 and silently having done great things - that probably one very valid definition of being ‘rich’.
Thank you for doing this. Wealthion has great minds, but, more importantly, has great hearts. The story of Nicolas and his quiet service is a perfect antidote to modern social media-a constant cacophony of individuals clamoring to make their greatness known. I, and many in younger generations, find it exhausting to navigate. This kind of perspective helps
Wow, Adam! What a story. Hadn’t know about him. As an (international) adoptive father myself, this story and clip moved me deeply. Thank you for sharing!!
Bravo! Wealthion's shows keep getting better. It is thought provoking to listen to David Rosenberg's well-considered bearish economic analysis followed by Lance's bullish, short-term perspective and charts. However, this video stood apart and I applaud you for including the segment on the 'power of one' along with the very moving video of that humble man who made a huge difference and your great commentary. Such an mportant reminder of the contributions that individuals are capable of making. Particularly valuable was Lance's advice on focusing on building one's career as the primary means of savings. Also appreciated Lance sharing his strategy of continually trimming 'winners' and buying during pullbacks. I've struggled with doing that. Great parenting advice, too, about kids working. Thank you for this amazingly well-rounded show, Kudos!
I always look fwd to your Saturday videos with Lance, but I absolutely Loved today's❤️! Wow. Thank you for the inspiration towards the end , so beautiful! Your right, we need more of THIS in the world!! Thank you for all you do! Perfect! 🔆💛
Lance comes in with the best advice I’ve ever heard with savings being the wealth builder and the market is there to help keep you ahead of inflation. This is why I love this show!
I read on reddit that the way to beat inflation currently is to get 2-4 full time work from home jobs you can all do in the same 8-12 hr day, apparently this allows you to make 200-500k so you can afford a middle class lifestyle. Maybe thats one reason productivity is down so much.
This is why many companies are forcing people back in the office. For every work from home employee that is actually doing their job, there are probably two more sitting in their underwear watching tv. The work from home crowd have destroyed many beautiful areas and the cost of living by bringing their big paychecks to rural areas where they distort the real estate prices and bring their coastal voting habits with them.
I am always very impressed with the daily episodes from Welthion, but this was an especially great episode. Adam and Lance, you guys are awesome. Please keep up the awesome work, and please don't ever change.
Adam you are the best! I've been watching you since you slightly after you started your channel, great stuff! For your watchers, Set targets when you trade. It is that simple. Targets should be set for buy in, adjustable stop out and profit taking in levels. You can't rob a bank without a plan.... (not suggesting anyone robs a bank, Wallstreet on the other hand...)
This show is a fantastic service to our society, even though you gentlemen might not see the direct impact of your efforts it is real, it is welcomed and it is so necessary today. Thank you.
Loving the technical analysis from Lance!!! Thank you so much guys You're making up for my terrible financial education I had as a child, and I am so grateful to you both!!
Adam and Lance, you are helping many people with your videos. Would be good to split these long videos into chapters, at least Lance's summary and trades.
Yes, he's the best guest Adam has for this very reason. Permabear channels and newsletters are more successful/profitable as a business structure, but they do get tedious. Lance is a refreshing change because he is more objective and looks at what is actually happening rather than what "should" be happening.
@@ehm5389 tedious what? "Lance is a refreshing change because he is more objective and looks at what is actually happening rather than what "should" be happening." so you would be long during the last year of intenet bubble because until they start going down they were going up more often than they werenht because that was the trend? so good luck with doing what most "proffesionals" lost money doing during that time, in order to try and time the market
Adam and Lance are exceptional ! When it comes to productivity… it is obvious the past 2.5 yrs that it’s reduced ! It has been my experience that it takes 4x the time today to accomplish actual business tasks than it took 5 years ago. If you ask the frontline workers today, We all exhausted mentally by over simulation, multitasking, app learning curves are not taken in account… to then change too often. Efficiency has been reduced ! It takes 4 x the effort today to accomplish what we effectively accomplished years ago!
That story is about a person making a difference in the 1940s. was fantastic. Lance is right if we all just helped one person we could change the world
I watch some of Wealthions videos, I watch ALL that include Lance.... You do a great service for us Adam. Thank you for introducing us to Nicholas Winton. He is a moving, inspiring person.
HUGELY important clip. All you need to know about the federal government. School econ courses should show this clip a dozen times, discussing and emphasizing a different part of the content each time. After that, the students would be able to dismiss and ignore all media coverage of economics.
Adam, great as always. I think you need a warmer light. You look slightly greenish/blue. Not sure if you have a fluorescent around or if your lights are super high temp??? But you should get a warmer light in there. Lance looks good.
Personally I like when Lance spends the first part of the show sort of talking macro, with his techies later one. Admittedly I'm not a technocrat though : ) I'm sure Lance had reasons to dive right in to his charts. There's my 2-cents. . .
After watching a small fortune paper profit vanish from my portfolio, it was very painful to hear the excellent advice about setting a selling target and ignoring how you feel when you get there. I was making relatively huge paper profits during the Covid rally, but I sat like a rabbit in headlights as it disappeared, thinking it was going to come back again. Now when I hear this advice about not being greedy, it will haunt me forever. THE TIME TO SELL IS WHEN YOU FEEL GREAT ABOUT YOUR PAPER PROFITS AND YOU THINK YOU HAVE CRACKED IT AS A TOP TRADER.
It would seem Lance Roberts is more optimistic on a soft landing (did I hear that right?) as opposed to a hard one that many of your other guests have been eluding to. Interesting! Also, I was just reading a report compiled by Nick Gerli on the ADP employment data and he mimics how we are in a "white-collar" recession as a result of lots of tech & finance layoffs. He suggest that this could hurt our economy since almost 60% of consumer spending comes from these workers that have been laid off. So a lot of mixed opinions that keeps the lay person's head spinning and why I agree with what you say by leaving it to professional portforlio managers!
Story at end is great. Shows how much morals and values from God really make a difference in peoples lives. If you only care about yourself no one will ever remember you, never have kids and never get married. It is a sad life indeed. 😢
Wondering how the narrowness of the markets, with a few big tech AI firms driving the NASDAQ, while the even-weighted S&P languishes suggesting a very weak broader market. So how does this affect bullish vs. bearish signals? The broader market is not participating in this "over-bought" condition.
@@billmc5457 Our time will come. This market is rotten to the core. When it’s 5 companies that have driven almost all the growth in the S&P, that’s not sustainable. Manufacturing has fallen off a cliff, and the consumer is tapped out. Look for the service sector to roll over next, then look out below.
I would have to disagree. Market is overbought in the short-term and completely overvalued in the long-term.. treasury getting ready to pull liquidity and sell a buttload of t-bills starting Monday and for the next 31 days good luck with your bullish thesis..
I would like to have a discussion about this argument, if you don't mind. It's ok if we don't eventually agree. Just having a nice discussion is always enriching . What is overvalued? The indices, individual stocks or both? How do you measure over-valuation? Technical analysis, fundamentals or both? Which specific measure do you use?
@@Agooo13431 a discussion is always nice even if no agreement. We all have our own views and opinions even when looking at technical analysis fundamentals indicators etc.. when I'm talking about valuations I'm talking about everything.. Nvidia is a great company but could never be worth their current valuation it would literally have to own the world.. company valuations are absolutely ridiculous.. PE ratios on almost everything are extremely extended overbought.. use many different technical analysis, Elliott wave, fundamentals etc so I can't really answer your question I use a mix of everything. I have a longer-term Outlook.. I'm not a day trader even though I do try to scalp plays here and there.. when I'm talking about treasury selling a buttload of t-bills there is the argument that there's plenty of liquidity in the market so perhaps we only see a small correction over the next couple of weeks and continue on to higher highs before a bigger correction.. I just refuse to play or support shorter-term analysis because I don't like encouraging a corrupt system. I am mostly a long-term macro and fundamental investor which is why I'm long physical gold and silver. I'd be interested to hear more of your outlook.
@@danielkurek7009 thank you. What we agree on: system is rigged and corrupt, gold is real money and I own physical gold as the best insurance against the collapse of the fiat currency system, and neither of us is a day trader. I am mostly a short term trader, 1-6 months usual holding time. Now with valuations, my view is that the overall SPY PE or CAPE gives you a distorted view, because of the relative weighting of big tech. Let me give you a few tickers in the commodities, financial, cyclical and industrial sectors to check out: STLD, CLF, C, KRE, PHM, BLDR, ATKR. All of these companies have low PE, low PEG, strong balance sheets, good management and pay dividends. These companies are not overvalued. Why not buy them? Just my two cents.
@@P__114 when I listen to these lectures i do it with the knowledge that 50-80% of active fund managers can't even beat sp500 and are borderline scammers that make their money by convincing old and non financially savvy people that they're "too dumb" to DCA into Sp500 and need the help of an "experience professional like themselves." So at the end of the day it's all a bunch of tea leaf reading. You'd be crazy to try and follow his trades. Still entertaining though
When to Sell is always the conundrum for investors because psychology, not fundamentals, determine their fate. The problem is that exponential run-ups are irrational but one doesn't want to sell too soon or too late, and nobody knows which it is in the moment. I've seen this happen (and done it a few times) again and again by selling winners too soon and holding losers too long! Lance's advise to size positions over the cycle makes excellent sense.
I live in an exurban Austin Texas property, out beyond he suburbs but not quite the boonies yet. I have a few acres and more to do outside than I can or want to get to. Varied part-time "ranch hand" or handy man work. Varied. I pay well. I can get NOBODY to work. No locals, definitely no Anglos. If they are they are toothless prison tattooed meth addicts. No more. Bigger firms are busy and my hodgepodge of work does not interest them AT ALL. BUT. A Hispanic fellow I had do some remodel finishing work 4 years ago is interested and says he and his crew and his greater network can do it all. They are eager to work and to please. One small Anglo remodeler took my advance on siding replacement materials and disappeared. The Hispanic guys did not ask for an advance. I am just tired of dealing with spoiled Anglo deadbeats. Done.
Psychology of Market structure sure looks to be indicating a massive Black swan very soon. ( Now to 8 months) completely pointless to be long a speculative gambling overvalued Market. I'll continue waiting patiently.
Same. I’m loading up on 3 month CDs at 5% and above and laddering them so I always have some cash rolling in. It’s nice to have a viable alternative to the market while I will wait.
I sell early all the time lol. underperforming my potential because of it for sure. Then it keeps running on ya and I don't like chasing them. Bollinger bands/Keltner channels are helpful for seeing where you are in the trend cycle.
What this looks like to me in terms of the psychology of the markets is that equities tend to perform well with inflation and that expected 4-5% inflation suggests equities are a better play than cash or bonds. Of course, one must choose the right places to be stocks as there will be relative strengths and weaknesses.
Standard deviation analysis is inappropriate for stock prices because they are not random and aren't subject to Gaussian statistics for which standard deviations were devised.
A. Everything is not great with the economy, but the stock market is having a bull run. B. Uninversion of the yield curve is bullish for stocks. It happens when investors move from long term bonds to stocks, raising the yield on the tail end of the curve C. After the uninversion is complete, then the crash happen. It played out like this in the summer of 1999
I understand investors are hung up on this question: how is macro-economy bad but stock market going up? So, I hope to shed some light on this. In a nutshell, it's because government and Fed believed their own lies. CPI was intentionally rigged in the 1980's to under-report inflation (long story). Anyhow, now inflation is double what the CPI says that it is. To get inflation under control, FFR needs to get higher than the rate of inflation. Now the Fed has FFR at 5%, and CPI is at 4.9%, so we're almost there, right? Wrong, because real inflation is at 10%. This means the real interest rate is -5%. It is still a very accommodative environment, encouraging risky investment. Now the Fed paused because they know if they went any further the entire banking system would collapse (another long story). This is why we are having a rally in stocks. The market discounts everything. The market is never "wrong".
Adam, please stop portraying people with bullish views of the financial market as some brain-dead zombies. I don't recall anyone commenting on your channel just saying: "hey stocks are going up so we'll buy and not think." I for one am not a permabull, I tend to be bearish in general and I am bearish on the real economy, but there are very good fundamental reasons why equities are rising.
I am also starting to get tired of the valuation argument when you are not applying it fairly. The straw-man argument about brainless investors buying NVDA is unfair. If valuation is your concern, how about XLF, XLB, XLI and XLY companies with forward PE 5, PEG less than 1, who beat their earnings estimates every single time? If valuation is the concern, why not buy those?
Thanks for this explanation. Does it then mean the economy housing ect is likely to follow the market up ? Weather it should or not will it likely be the case thanks in advance?
@@alexpitcher4778thank you. To simplify, housing yes, real economy no. Housing is viewed as an asset, and an inflationary environment will raise prices of all assets, including housing. As for the real economy, people will suffer because the transfer of wealth from those without inflatable assets to those with such assets will accelerate. In other words, unfortunately, the poor will get poorer and the rich will get richer.
Great as always, but today's episode was truly above and beyond on all levels. Especially the touching story and takeaway message toward the tail end. Truly an inspiration at how you guys inspire not just finance but also living legit positive life values. Lance should write a book on parenting, the world needs that. 😂 Thanks Adam and Lance for all that you do!
Totally agree with this comment! Thanks for bringing this channel to life and our weekly dose of reality and inspiration!
So you didn't understand anything before that is what you're saying 😂
☝Inspiration
@@rodiculous9464 😂
Wow! Just heard Lance talk at 1:06:25/1:37:12 about savings and wealth. This is the kind of wisdom that is not found on other channels. This is the value that wealthion and Lance bring to the community. Thanks so much, greatly appreciate your show.
Adam & Lance, the weekly recap you guys do is my favourite show on TH-cam. And it's not because of the market news as much as for the stability, common sense, ethics, and morals that I hear from you both. In a world gone mad I'm so glad there are two such great people who can set a shining example for the rest of us. I cried through the ending. It was really moving. Thank you for all you do.
Totally agree
Best show on YT. I also started watching Lance's morning podcasts. Made a big difference in my trading.
These discussions with Lance are truly better than any investment classes or courses you can enroll in.
Thanks guys for another great weekly update! I also appreciate your encouragement for all of us to reach out and make a positive impact on the world around us!
That was a truely moving story at the end of this program. First time I ever ended one of your shows with a tear in my eyes. This man deserves to be recognized, too bad it took so long. A true hero.
Thank you Adam and Lance. I happened to buy PG , ABT 😅 and TLT recently , so thanks Lance to share his trading strategy . I will discipline more. I wish I had Lance’s flexibility to switch the gear a few weeks ago🤦🏻♀️…A lot times , the market can not be rationalized…Meanwhile，I love that you guys stretched the topic beyond the personal finance today. The ethics, humanity, public service and etc. were all the great side subjects. This is why I like watching this program. It is not only about bullish or bearish, but also some deeper discussions of the society we live nowadays. Regardless bulls or bears, we all have responsibilities to serve genuinely . ❤
Weekly Market Recap is my favorite Wealthion! I hope it'll last forever!! Thanks for your great work. You guys are awesome!!
Real learning in action 🎉🎉 very often leads to real earning😊
Thank you, Adam and Lance, for all your discussions about investing. I look forward to listening to you both.
Thank you Adam and Lance! I love the positive messaging and the important message to make a difference. Have a great rest of your weekend.
I always enjoyed these talks with Lance but this one stands out. When I noticed Adam getting choaked up while talking about the man that saved so many Jews in WWII, it confirmed what I already suspected, that Adam is a man of high integrity. As a fellow Gen-Xer I really appreciate another man that allows feelings to come through from time to time. We are not just financial beings, we are human beings. Thank you.
Adam, Lance,
I hope it is not lost upon you, but you've already become in whatever infinitesimal way your own Nicholas Winton. You have brought together an audience of complete strangers into one place, delivering an educational experience and providing access to information in a way that liberates us from the confines of "mainstream" perception. You guide us week-to-week through the chaos of daily noise both from price action and the countless mouthpieces. I think the most significant parallel between Wealthion and Nicholas Winton is that Winton never asked anything from the people he helped, and you ask nothing of us. You just give. I believe if you were in the right place at the right time, you would do great things no matter how big or small. And that is the essence of people like yourselves, and I imagine the majority of your audience. I hope weekly recaps continue indefinitely. Thank you both.
Wow, this was one of your best weekly recaps! Keep up the great work, and thank you both!!
Great and unexpected injection of compassion and wisdom at the end. Dying with 106 and silently having done great things - that probably one very valid definition of being ‘rich’.
MR. ADAM IS GREAT HOST AND MR. LANCE IS GREAT TEACHER, VERY NATURAL AND INFORMATIVE, THANK YOU.
Thank you for doing this. Wealthion has great minds, but, more importantly, has great hearts. The story of Nicolas and his quiet service is a perfect antidote to modern social media-a constant cacophony of individuals clamoring to make their greatness known. I, and many in younger generations, find it exhausting to navigate. This kind of perspective helps
Wow, Adam! What a story. Hadn’t know about him. As an (international) adoptive father myself, this story and clip moved me deeply. Thank you for sharing!!
I havent missed a single episode of the weekly catchup with lance since i found the channel 6 months ago. Good job guys!
Incredible episode Adam - thanks so much for that touching story at the end. I hadn't heard this before. Your reaction speaks volumes. 😊
Bravo! Wealthion's shows keep getting better. It is thought provoking to listen to David Rosenberg's well-considered bearish economic analysis followed by Lance's bullish, short-term perspective and charts. However, this video stood apart and I applaud you for including the segment on the 'power of one' along with the very moving video of that humble man who made a huge difference and your great commentary. Such an mportant reminder of the contributions that individuals are capable of making. Particularly valuable was Lance's advice on focusing on building one's career as the primary means of savings. Also appreciated Lance sharing his strategy of continually trimming 'winners' and buying during pullbacks. I've struggled with doing that. Great parenting advice, too, about kids working. Thank you for this amazingly well-rounded show, Kudos!
WOW - First time seeing Adam choked up in tears/cry, very touching! This was a great episode.
I always look fwd to your Saturday videos with Lance, but I absolutely Loved today's❤️! Wow. Thank you for the inspiration towards the end , so beautiful! Your right, we need more of THIS in the world!! Thank you for all you do! Perfect! 🔆💛
Lance comes in with the best advice I’ve ever heard with savings being the wealth builder and the market is there to help keep you ahead of inflation. This is why I love this show!
I read on reddit that the way to beat inflation currently is to get 2-4 full time work from home jobs you can all do in the same 8-12 hr day, apparently this allows you to make 200-500k so you can afford a middle class lifestyle. Maybe thats one reason productivity is down so much.
This is why many companies are forcing people back in the office. For every work from home employee that is actually doing their job, there are probably two more sitting in their underwear watching tv. The work from home crowd have destroyed many beautiful areas and the cost of living by bringing their big paychecks to rural areas where they distort the real estate prices and bring their coastal voting habits with them.
Thank you, thank you, thank you for sharing that story! It gives me renewed hope! Again, thank you Adam!
Mr. Taggart, thank you for your program.
Thank you, Adam and Lance. God bless.
Thank you both for the inspiration.
Your work is outstanding and that ending historical story was truly amazing.
I am always very impressed with the daily episodes from Welthion, but this was an especially great episode. Adam and Lance, you guys are awesome. Please keep up the awesome work, and please don't ever change.
You guys were great🙂 keep up the good work🤙
❤ very insightful! Thank you!
Thank you Wealthion, too much negative stuff going on we need the good and positive
Love this channel so much. Thanks for everything.
Adam you are the best! I've been watching you since you slightly after you started your channel, great stuff! For your watchers, Set targets when you trade. It is that simple. Targets should be set for buy in, adjustable stop out and profit taking in levels. You can't rob a bank without a plan.... (not suggesting anyone robs a bank, Wallstreet on the other hand...)
This show is a fantastic service to our society, even though you gentlemen might not see the direct impact of your efforts it is real, it is welcomed and it is so necessary today. Thank you.
Loving the technical analysis from Lance!!!
Thank you so much guys
You're making up for my terrible financial education I had as a child, and I am so grateful to you both!!
Thank you Adam, your content always has high values! The portfolio management at 25:00 was spot on!
Adam and Lance, you are helping many people with your videos. Would be good to split these long videos into chapters, at least Lance's summary and trades.
Love the Lance Adam weekly interviews
another great saturday show with Lance.....quality and content is worthy of a membership charge
Lance is probably the only one on this show flexible enough to change his mind on the market vs all the other permabears on this channel.
Yes, he's the best guest Adam has for this very reason. Permabear channels and newsletters are more successful/profitable as a business structure, but they do get tedious. Lance is a refreshing change because he is more objective and looks at what is actually happening rather than what "should" be happening.
In other words he's a flip flopper that will probably still underperform sp500 like most money managers
@@ehm5389 tedious what?
"Lance is a refreshing change because he is more objective and looks at what is actually happening rather than what "should" be happening."
so you would be long during the last year of intenet bubble because until they start going down they were going up more often than they werenht because that was the trend?
so good luck with doing what most "proffesionals" lost money doing during that time, in order to try and time the market
And David Hunter has a strong own view (with which one could agree or disagree... it's a fresh and honest view)
Adam and Lance are exceptional ! When it comes to productivity… it is obvious the past 2.5 yrs that it’s reduced ! It has been my experience that it takes 4x the time today to accomplish actual business tasks than it took 5 years ago. If you ask the frontline workers today, We all exhausted mentally by over simulation, multitasking, app learning curves are not taken in account… to then change too often. Efficiency has been reduced ! It takes 4 x the effort today to accomplish what we effectively accomplished years ago!
That story is about a person making a difference in the 1940s. was fantastic. Lance is right if we all just helped one person we could change the world
I love fibonacci. Nice job, Lance and Adam, you get the golden star!
glad you guys are back
Well done Adam!
We love it...Thank you
The market was reacting negatively to debt ceiling ... until NVDA earnings came out. That is when everyone was like "What debt ceiling?"
Your conversations are a weekend staple for me. Thanks!
Found the like button but this deserves more. Where is the love button ❤
I watch some of Wealthions videos, I watch ALL that include Lance.... You do a great service for us Adam. Thank you for introducing us to Nicholas Winton. He is a moving, inspiring person.
HUGELY important clip. All you need to know about the federal government.
School econ courses should show this clip a dozen times, discussing and emphasizing a different part of the content each time. After that, the students would be able to dismiss and ignore all media coverage of economics.
Always my favorite show of the week! Learn from you and love your bantor and humor while teaching what could be pretty dry stuff otherwise, lol!
Thank you for the brilliant content.
Thank you for the inspiration
Yes keep Lance till 2100😂 I really enjoy all your content 👍🏼
At the end of the day it doesn’t matter how many employees you have it matters what value you’re creating in society.
Thank you for the content
Thanks for the advice on buying to a % level.
you are good men. Thank you.
Great show as always. You can't find this content on cable tv.
great episode, appreciate the explanations, this is a really good education
Appreciate the bit about managing core positions, thx
Adam, great as always. I think you need a warmer light. You look slightly greenish/blue. Not sure if you have a fluorescent around or if your lights are super high temp??? But you should get a warmer light in there. Lance looks good.
COT. Shows small specs got pushed out of shorts. Stock index futures. But they are more short on nasdaq futures.
Thanks Lance, you've enlighten me over the year
Great explanation about Bollinger bands
Love your show Lance is great I will be a listener in 2025 and beyond
A time stamp for important sections would be nice....I do watch the whole thing at least once.
Strong work. 💪
Only in DC is a cut a reduction in the level of growth in spending. Spending goes up but slower.
Personally I like when Lance spends the first part of the show sort of talking macro, with his techies later one. Admittedly I'm not a technocrat though : ) I'm sure Lance had reasons to dive right in to his charts. There's my 2-cents. . .
After watching a small fortune paper profit vanish from my portfolio, it was very painful to hear the excellent advice about setting a selling target and ignoring how you feel when you get there. I was making relatively huge paper profits during the Covid rally, but I sat like a rabbit in headlights as it disappeared, thinking it was going to come back again. Now when I hear this advice about not being greedy, it will haunt me forever. THE TIME TO SELL IS WHEN YOU FEEL GREAT ABOUT YOUR PAPER PROFITS AND YOU THINK YOU HAVE CRACKED IT AS A TOP TRADER.
Nice new shirt style Lance!
It would seem Lance Roberts is more optimistic on a soft landing (did I hear that right?) as opposed to a hard one that many of your other guests have been eluding to. Interesting! Also, I was just reading a report compiled by Nick Gerli on the ADP employment data and he mimics how we are in a "white-collar" recession as a result of lots of tech & finance layoffs. He suggest that this could hurt our economy since almost 60% of consumer spending comes from these workers that have been laid off. So a lot of mixed opinions that keeps the lay person's head spinning and why I agree with what you say by leaving it to professional portforlio managers!
Story at end is great. Shows how much morals and values from God really make a difference in peoples lives. If you only care about yourself no one will ever remember you, never have kids and never get married. It is a sad life indeed. 😢
Wondering how the narrowness of the markets, with a few big tech AI firms driving the NASDAQ, while the even-weighted S&P languishes suggesting a very weak broader market. So how does this affect bullish vs. bearish signals? The broader market is not participating in this "over-bought" condition.
As a Simplevisor subscriber, I appreciate Lance going over the tools like the Realtive Analysis of Sectors
Adam- not many of your guests saw this ramp up coming. They were all bearish to the point of catastrophe.
Agreed and I have been one of them. Learned a hard lesson. Too much money inflows on a regular basis, without a black swan, to keep this market down.
@@billmc5457 Our time will come. This market is rotten to the core. When it’s 5 companies that have driven almost all the growth in the S&P, that’s not sustainable. Manufacturing has fallen off a cliff, and the consumer is tapped out. Look for the service sector to roll over next, then look out below.
Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia is still watching this very informative content cheers Frank ❤
I would have to disagree. Market is overbought in the short-term and completely overvalued in the long-term.. treasury getting ready to pull liquidity and sell a buttload of t-bills starting Monday and for the next 31 days good luck with your bullish thesis..
I would like to have a discussion about this argument, if you don't mind. It's ok if we don't eventually agree. Just having a nice discussion is always enriching .
What is overvalued? The indices, individual stocks or both? How do you measure over-valuation? Technical analysis, fundamentals or both? Which specific measure do you use?
He is a dumb money manager like 99 percent of them are
@@Agooo13431 a discussion is always nice even if no agreement. We all have our own views and opinions even when looking at technical analysis fundamentals indicators etc.. when I'm talking about valuations I'm talking about everything.. Nvidia is a great company but could never be worth their current valuation it would literally have to own the world.. company valuations are absolutely ridiculous.. PE ratios on almost everything are extremely extended overbought.. use many different technical analysis, Elliott wave, fundamentals etc so I can't really answer your question I use a mix of everything. I have a longer-term Outlook.. I'm not a day trader even though I do try to scalp plays here and there.. when I'm talking about treasury selling a buttload of t-bills there is the argument that there's plenty of liquidity in the market so perhaps we only see a small correction over the next couple of weeks and continue on to higher highs before a bigger correction.. I just refuse to play or support shorter-term analysis because I don't like encouraging a corrupt system. I am mostly a long-term macro and fundamental investor which is why I'm long physical gold and silver. I'd be interested to hear more of your outlook.
@@danielkurek7009 thank you. What we agree on: system is rigged and corrupt, gold is real money and I own physical gold as the best insurance against the collapse of the fiat currency system, and neither of us is a day trader. I am mostly a short term trader, 1-6 months usual holding time. Now with valuations, my view is that the overall SPY PE or CAPE gives you a distorted view, because of the relative weighting of big tech. Let me give you a few tickers in the commodities, financial, cyclical and industrial sectors to check out: STLD, CLF, C, KRE, PHM, BLDR, ATKR. All of these companies have low PE, low PEG, strong balance sheets, good management and pay dividends. These companies are not overvalued. Why not buy them? Just my two cents.
@@P__114 when I listen to these lectures i do it with the knowledge that 50-80% of active fund managers can't even beat sp500 and are borderline scammers that make their money by convincing old and non financially savvy people that they're "too dumb" to DCA into
Sp500 and need the help of an "experience professional like themselves." So at the end of the day it's all a bunch of tea leaf reading. You'd be crazy to try and follow his trades. Still entertaining though
When to Sell is always the conundrum for investors because psychology, not fundamentals, determine their fate. The problem is that exponential run-ups are irrational but one doesn't want to sell too soon or too late, and nobody knows which it is in the moment. I've seen this happen (and done it a few times) again and again by selling winners too soon and holding losers too long! Lance's advise to size positions over the cycle makes excellent sense.
I live in an exurban Austin Texas property, out beyond he suburbs but not quite the boonies yet. I have a few acres and more to do outside than I can or want to get to. Varied part-time "ranch hand" or handy man work. Varied. I pay well. I can get NOBODY to work. No locals, definitely no Anglos. If they are they are toothless prison tattooed meth addicts. No more. Bigger firms are busy and my hodgepodge of work does not interest them AT ALL. BUT. A Hispanic fellow I had do some remodel finishing work 4 years ago is interested and says he and his crew and his greater network can do it all. They are eager to work and to please. One small Anglo remodeler took my advance on siding replacement materials and disappeared. The Hispanic guys did not ask for an advance. I am just tired of dealing with spoiled Anglo deadbeats. Done.
@ 1:12: you are mistaken they go for cash heavy jobs. They go for sovereign American jobs.
Psychology of Market structure sure looks to be indicating a massive Black swan very soon. ( Now to 8 months) completely pointless to be long a speculative gambling overvalued Market. I'll continue waiting patiently.
hi we have suddenly changed direction but there is still a lot wrong with market.i am patient too as not sure I trust direction.
Same. I’m loading up on 3 month CDs at 5% and above and laddering them so I always have some cash rolling in. It’s nice to have a viable alternative to the market while I will wait.
I sell early all the time lol. underperforming my potential because of it for sure. Then it keeps running on ya and I don't like chasing them. Bollinger bands/Keltner channels are helpful for seeing where you are in the trend cycle.
Adam and Lance be like Batman and Robin...Adam is Batman coz he looks older.😅😂 Great chat guys. Cheers!
What this looks like to me in terms of the psychology of the markets is that equities tend to perform well with inflation and that expected 4-5% inflation suggests equities are a better play than cash or bonds. Of course, one must choose the right places to be stocks as there will be relative strengths and weaknesses.
Every Saturday this guy says no recession. Won’t age well
"You do not short this market."
Wish I had heard and digested this advice 6 months ago.
Please adopt me; I'm an idiot.
Shorting in general is a stupid idea
Standard deviation analysis is inappropriate for stock prices because they are not random and aren't subject to Gaussian statistics for which standard deviations were devised.
If everything is so great, why is the yield curve still inverted and why won't an uninversion be bad?
The market is designed to fool the greatest number. Once there's a critical mass of traders on the bullish side, the rug will be pulled.
A. Everything is not great with the economy, but the stock market is having a bull run.
B. Uninversion of the yield curve is bullish for stocks. It happens when investors move from long term bonds to stocks, raising the yield on the tail end of the curve
C. After the uninversion is complete, then the crash happen. It played out like this in the summer of 1999
@@Agooo13431 yes. After the uninversion is what I meant being bad.
We already had 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP fell - recession
Definitely not in the same camp as your guest. Optimism is great but not with everything that is happening
I understand investors are hung up on this question: how is macro-economy bad but stock market going up? So, I hope to shed some light on this.
In a nutshell, it's because government and Fed believed their own lies. CPI was intentionally rigged in the 1980's to under-report inflation (long story). Anyhow, now inflation is double what the CPI says that it is. To get inflation under control, FFR needs to get higher than the rate of inflation. Now the Fed has FFR at 5%, and CPI is at 4.9%, so we're almost there, right? Wrong, because real inflation is at 10%. This means the real interest rate is -5%. It is still a very accommodative environment, encouraging risky investment. Now the Fed paused because they know if they went any further the entire banking system would collapse (another long story). This is why we are having a rally in stocks. The market discounts everything. The market is never "wrong".
Adam, please stop portraying people with bullish views of the financial market as some brain-dead zombies. I don't recall anyone commenting on your channel just saying: "hey stocks are going up so we'll buy and not think."
I for one am not a permabull, I tend to be bearish in general and I am bearish on the real economy, but there are very good fundamental reasons why equities are rising.
I am also starting to get tired of the valuation argument when you are not applying it fairly. The straw-man argument about brainless investors buying NVDA is unfair. If valuation is your concern, how about XLF, XLB, XLI and XLY companies with forward PE 5, PEG less than 1, who beat their earnings estimates every single time? If valuation is the concern, why not buy those?
Thanks for this explanation.
Does it then mean the economy housing ect is likely to follow the market up ? Weather it should or not will it likely be the case thanks in advance?
@@alexpitcher4778thank you. To simplify, housing yes, real economy no.
Housing is viewed as an asset, and an inflationary environment will raise prices of all assets, including housing.
As for the real economy, people will suffer because the transfer of wealth from those without inflatable assets to those with such assets will accelerate. In other words, unfortunately, the poor will get poorer and the rich will get richer.
@@Agooo13431 ok got thanks
Interesting thought, maybe retail investors plowing into AI stocks because they see it as a hedge against losing your job to AI?
Let's GO.
The recession has not been acknowledged because the formula that was historically used, was modified.