Latest on the war in Ukraine with Nathalie Tocci - Geopolitics with Alex Stubb
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 ต.ค. 2022
- In this fourth episode, Alex Stubb welcomes Nathalie Tocci, Director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs (Istituto Affari Internazionali).
Alex and Nathalie discuss Elon Musk’s proposal for unilateral peace and the geopolitical implications of the latest battlefield developments.
“Geopolitics with Alex” is a sequel to "Understanding the War" which ran from March to July 2022.
A very thoughtful and intellectually sound analysis, thank you. But there is another view point that should not be discounted. When I see video of Ukrainian soldiers being taken to their final resting place and every car on the road stops, the people get out and take a knee; I know Russia will never win.
You are right, as Russia is not there to win Ukraine.
You are right, as Russia is not there to win Ukraine.
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery but "thanks but no thanks". You pro Russians are as bad at this as you are fighting in Ukraine, just awful; but your hand is garbage, so there's that. You could stop embarrassing yourselves at anytime though, something to think about...
@@os8218 nz,
Russia is not operating to win Ukraine. It's not a conflict of win or lose. Your west made it a war. So keep quiet please
There is a reason why Chris Voss wrote the book Never Split The Difference. The Ukrainians have absolutely no interest in compromising on former Ukrainian territory. It's not just because they want justice, it's because Russia will never stop if they cave in even on minor points. And again, the contents of Chris' book perfectly fits to Ukraine's situation.
The problem is that many of the people in those "Ukrainian" territories are not Ukrainian, and many of those that are ethnic Ukrainian speak Russian and are pro-Russian. One must not forget that these lands were arbitrarily handed to the Ukraine SSR by the Soviet Union in 1922 and 1954. The people were not allowed a say in the matter. When Ukraine was part of the USSR and the CIS, it didn't matter much, but after the coup in Ukraine in 2014, these people wanted out.
@@Too-Odd true, there are people in Ukraine that don't like government from Kiev,but Russia recognized the Ukraine frontier in 1991, and guaranteed Ukraine borders when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons. Russia could help Russian from Ukraine with peacefully means. It had leverage, it had pro Russian parties, it provided gas.
@@Kannot2023 Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk all seceded from Ukraine in 2014 after the Ukraine coup. They were no longer part of Ukraine once Russia recognized them, which it did for Crimea in 2014, and the two Donbas republics in 2022.
Crimea, being both an autonomous oblast, the base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and 90% Russian ethnically was immediately recognized. Because Crimea had seceded in 1992 only to be reincorporated into Ukraine in 1994, the Crimea immediately applied to be part of the Russian Federation.
The Donbas republics were not recognized immediately, and Russia worked within the Minsk Agreement framework to allow Ukraine to keep them as autonomous oblasts. Instead of complying with the Minsk Agreement, which Ukraine was a signatory to, they send the neo-Nazi Azov militia to base in Mariupol and began shelling and sniping civilians in the Donbas. After eight years and 14,000 lives lost, Russia finally recognized Luhansk and Donetsk as republics.
This is no different than Slovenia, Croatia, Macedonia, and Bosnia seceding from Serbian controlled Yugoslavia. Does Serbia have the right to bomb and shell these countries because it does not recognize their independence? The West is so full of hypocrisy on this issue because these are Russian people who are tied to Russia rather than new puppets for the EU, IMF, and NATO to tie strings to.
@@Too-Odd You cant really call it a coup if president chooses to run away (everything was done by the constitution and president is under it). Peoples demand was that president does what majority wants and that was to to get closer to EU. President betrayed them (in a very short and dry version). And you speak of pro-russian people in the eastern parts of UA when in 1991 there was like 83-90% (Crimea 54%) support for free UA from Russia(USSR). What changed in past 30 years (if people in those "oblast's" lived better than in RU)?
Crimea is 68% Russian (in 1850 there were only 7% Russian).
And territory cant just secede villy-nilly how ever and when ever it wants. Second - in 2014 none of Donetsk'ians didn't even know that they want to secede. In interview with one of RU officers, who led unmarked RU troops to take over Donetsk city, told that after they took over (in like a 1 hour) he then asked to all Donetsk men to take up arms and help them to protect this new "Russian" territory. He was for sure that there would be some 20% of male population ready to fight for that goal, but he ended with like only 0.1% (by his words) of male population, and they were mostly bums and unemployed man. That was in the beginning and with time number of radicals increased (its no surprise, in WW2 Nazis also often got native support with time).
And one more thing - of ~6mil population in Donetsk, after 2014 RU green man invasion, only ~2 mil pop live there today. Now I have a question - even if we take that those fake referendums are true, did they asked what those 4mil people who escaped from Donetsk and left their home - want? And how can you make a referendum in the middle of war?
And that Minsk-2 agreement was very disadvantageous to UA. In a way it was even worse than just took away all those "oblast's" (at least in that way Ru wouldn't have direct access to UA government.
And no one sent Azov to Donetsk to kill civilians. They send Azov as one of their newly made military battalion(?). They basically were civilians (patriots and nationalists, in a time of war difference between them becomes blurry) who took up arms. Wont question what they actually did there (hope there will be investigation), but government didn't ordered them do what you accuse them of doing (in situation of emergency you use whatever you can, not really an excuse, but still). It would be the same as accuse all Russia of what their neo-nazi battalion is doing.
And in 8 years there was 3400 civilian casualties (others were military personnel of UA vs RU & militia).
In short its not that simple as you wrote. In short neither of those "oblast's" (including Crimea) would done something if not for RU intervention
Can Chine ask for RU to give back eastern territories east of Baikal? Or just plainly invade because there live many Chinese people?
And I would suggest you to read more about Yugoslavia. What happened there and when. And when UN and NATO intervened. I'm not really seeing comparison to Ukraine. Closer comparison would be Russia-Chechen wars.
Say what you want about the US, their intelligence network was on point throughout this whole conflict. Literally to the minute 😳
I hope Mr. Putin thinks on that often.
@@MarkM001 I swear American Spy Satellites see EVERYTHING; which explains all the pinpoint HiMars targets. If I were a dictator, I’d really start re-evaluating my life choices knowing their eyes are on me at all-times.
Nope, they just have to follow with the scripts of the deal between Trump and Putin . It is Trump that made promises to Putin most likely so the current administration has to get out of this mess of Trump legacy.
On point only as far that was. However, once the war started they begun drive the whole world down towards nuclear Armageddon.
@@MarkM001 You want to understand all sides of this conflict.
This is really a war between America/NATO 🇺🇸 and Russia 🇷🇺 by proxy using the land and human bodies of Ukraine. Simply that.
What a brilliant guest! More episodes with her please. Thanks for this channel 👍🏼❤️
Ach, she made several false claims...
One example, US and UK intelligence didn't accurately predict "down to the minute" when the invasion will start. They were calling it imminent for almost half a year.
I really appreciate Nathalie Tocci's perspective. I would love to see her as a guest again!
Alex, it took the War in Ukraine to bring your videos to my attention, but as others have said the succinct style you have is a great way to for me to process quality insight like this. Grazie Mille!
Two brilliant, working brains in Italy... this gives me hope. Thank you guys, love your channel Mr. Stubb.
Thank you for laying everything out so clearly and succinctly. Your channel is truly a service to the world.
Western propaganda
Thank you for posting again. You are like the light in the dark, with your calm way of talking.
same 😀
@@paulpain7337 Ignore this trollbot guys 💛💙
I'm frustrated that youtube only allows me to merely like your episodes, and only once at that. Thanks so much for your insight! Keep it up!💙💛
Yeah Alexander Stubb could have taken it in Swedish as well. Good for me, but not for all in that case.
Thank you for always providing a healthy perspective. Many of us have been very wrong about both Russia's threat and Ukraine's strength. Elon is still very wrong but won't ever admit it.
Your humility inspires confidence in your perspectives. In fairness, American intelligence was mostly wrong about WMD in Iraq and I, too, was skeptical about the full extent of Putin’s intentions. We have all learned a painful, yet valuable, lesson. Another great show today!
American government are the biggest liars and evil govrrnment in the workd. They were not wrong about WMD in Iraq, they intentionally lied to justify their evil killing of Iraqis people. But do the American or western people even care? Now, they talk about helping Ukraine from the "evil" Putin? Seriously, this war will not happen if the west did not pushed Ukraine to hurt Russia.
Mostly, but the UN inspectors got it even more wrong afterwards. Iraq was riddled with chemical weapons that had not been disposed of, just taken out of active service and hidden from view.
Brilliant perspectives on what is going to be a huge milestone on the timeline of the history of mankind. If we survive we might look back and be amazed.
Thank you for spending the time to create and share this content/awareness 🙏🏾 Stronger Together💯💯💯💯
No, no, no!!! You cut this conversation off too soon. It is excellent material, super important material, point-on analysis. Many thanks!
12:53 - 12:57 when Ukraine is satisfied with the outcome, until than we support the Ukrainian people. A sovereign Ukraine will be around far longer than Putin is on the scene. Ukraine will be Ukraine 🇺🇦 Ukraines land will be Ukraine. One way or another. However long it takes for Ukraine to reach what they desire for their country/land/people🇺🇦Slava Ukraine💙💛a strategic victory for Ukraine will be inevitable when all is said and done.💯💯💯💯
Great Alex. In my opinion you didn't show enough humility with regard to your previous idea of impunity for Putin, but you did show a tiny amount and I'm still on board with you! I really like your show and your careful analysis. By the way, saw an episode of GZero with Ian Brenner and the guy that managed to achieve the grain corridor. Sorry I don't know his name but he clearly knows his stuff and he stated clearly that the problem we are trying to solve is the situation where evil dictators, Putin in particular can act with impunity. So let's agree that its crystal clear that impunity is not the solution ! !
💯. Also Alex should stop treating everyone as stupid except himself. It comes across rather arrogant, no matter his brilliance and insight.
I love the European aspect of this war...
You discuss it at the listener level..who really was clueless 7 months ago...
Thank you..
Is Nathalie saying around 8:40 that if we haven't overestimated Russian military we would have taken steps that would have caused WW3? I don't understand.
The parties will negotiate when neither thinks it can gain any more territory.
Awesome guest! I really hope to hear more from Dr Nathalie Tocci in the future!
Elon Musk denies any conversation with Putin, but he definitely tweeted these ideas. I was shocked. I disagree with him, to say the least! Mr Musk should stick with his undeniable area of expertise, in which he knows his business - and stay out of international diplomacy.
Elon not understand Russia
Thanks Alex!
14:45 Critics:
The logic is quite right, but the point when Putin can't deny that more troops doesn't help is not only to view from outside russia.
Mobilization is a process that takes months, even more since true number of soldiers is limitless. Only Putin can count how many are drafted.
But during this drain, many coffins get sent home, more protest raises under russian people. Already official russian source admit first losses of mbilized soldiers.
There is a good chance, that Putin loses his power due to domestic developments. Don't underestimate the dynamics in russias failing!
7:56 - 8:07 ma’am the writing was on the wall since last year, we tried to tell our allied nations in Europe. But the techniques of misinformation working in the background from Russia and within certain European countries was effective enough to cause our allied nations to doubt our warnings. The first thing that happens when you try to send warnings is typically denial and attacking the messaging. Time is the only guaranteed antidote, because time always will tell… so we sit back and let time tell. Time always tells. One way or another. And history will attest to that. Can only do so much, if we push too hard on the warnings of the obvious, it only effectively works to become less obvious to those who are meant to get the warning. Europe said we were being “paranoid”, “hysteria”, etc and everything under the sun lol so all one can do at that point is prepare to step in when what is to come comes .. never say I told you so, just be ready to help when the time of realization comes and go from there to make the best of the situation from that point. Can lead a horse to water, but can’t make it drink. These are sovereign allied nations who have the right to agree and or disagree. We can warn about an asteroid, but can’t make people care. Especially when the end result is that a potential danger is averted by the actions taken that people doubted the purpose of those actions, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy for the doubters of the warned dangers of that very asteroid in the first place. For example if war was entirely successfully averted in the background, guess what the narratives we would have to live with after that… “Americans warning were paranoia, hysterical, etc .. there was no war” but that would’ve been worth it to have to deal with if we managed to get Europe to divert and or at least prepare for Putin’s Russias invasion in a way that deterred Putin from invading by showing him that his fate is a strategic failure and it will be guaranteed one way or another.. if Putin would’ve realized what he is realizing now, he would not have gone through with the invasion because he’d be made aware of the outcome before February 24th 2022, in a way even a delusional Putin would’ve seen the inevitable writing on the wall. A sovereign Ukraine will be around far longer than Putin will be on the scene. One way or another. Ukraines land will remain with the Ukrainian people, Ukraine will be Ukraine when all is said and done. And the inevitable is that Putin did all of this for what??? To drag Russia and it’s people down with him and his self serving interests only concerning about himself and treating his Russian people as nothing more than disposable cannon fodder for an unjustified/unprovoked pointless invasion of a sovereign nation… this is forever Putin’s legacy. The man who was alive during the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 20th century a man that claims to know history, but in the next century Putin went through with being the man who crashed his own country into the ground creating even more pain and suffering for a Russian nation that was the literal reminiscent of the Soviet Union that he said was the worst thing in 20th century history. Than he goes and become the man who is solely responsible for the worst thing of the 21st century not only for himself but for his Russian country that he claims to have cared about as he treats his people as nothing more than disposable canon fodder for his self serving aims of Peter the Great. Not only tragic for the Russian people, but it’s pathetic of Putin. It’s as if he has small man syndrome, perhaps if he were taller and or larger in other parts of his body Putin would not have become what he evidently has became. Putin’s self sabotage of his legacy, what legacy he had left he will only continue to dig deeper eventually burying himself and his country in his own sh!t. A 21st century tragedy
TLDR!
I’d quite happily watch Alexander Stubb read out my shopping list.
Great analysis, great guest!
What a superb interview... Brilliant.
Brilliant conversation. Very captivating.
Just a quick comment on a technical aspect. Something is off with your codec or bitrate. 1080p should look way better than how it does in this video.
Thank you Dr. Stubb, for (finally and overtly) broaching the reality of bringing Putler to the international courts. It's got to be done.
Gee you think thats what we have to worry about now? Gee
If the West ever get close to arresting Putin, it will be after a nuclear holocaust in the shadow of the deaths of maybe hundreds of millions.
I d sooner humanity avoids that.
His survey was also used by Vasily Nebenzya at the last UN meeting. Perhaps that was the whole idea: "People on the internet are also OK with this and you are fighting windmills here in UN".
EM revokes Starlink to the Ukrainians like a child taking home his football.
That’s the most generous lens to view it though.
what an insight!
💙💛Дякую!
Brilliant. I mean a gem. Intellectually satisfying.
Clearly, diplomacy and peacemaking are not rocket science. Great analysis. Thank you.
And Elon is no Rocket scientist, he is a very successful con artist. That is all.
Great conversation! Thanks for posting🙏🙏
Thank you once again for an excellent analysis and what a remarkable guest. One factor that I would like to see discussed is the possible outcome of internal Russian dissent. The time when Putin's increasingly repressive regime is going to collapse is surely not that far off?
I liked the last comment of Nathalie Tocci. I feel this is so dangerous even just thinking of using nuclear against a non-nuclear country. It will totally change the total understanding of nuclear non-proliferation treaty for many counties in years to come.
Thank you for your channel. Great Host and great Guest. Ukranians should decide the conditions for the eventual peace treaty. Elon Musk is for sure a great engineer but he is also a goofy geopolitician.
Elon is not an engineer, nor is he great. He simply has paid a lot of money to come across as so. He has obscene amounts of money and can afford a lot of PR, and spares no expense doing so. Dive deeper and you'll find he is quite unsavory. His perceived accolades were purchased not earned.
More episodes with this lady please...
11:53 - Hah! 😄
After all the lies that Russia has narrated, I believe they should be ignored on their concerns about security and feel that NATO should push Russian forces out of Ukraine and just keep the land secured until Russia backs down and moves on. Russia only responds to force, never to negotiate. This has been told many times by many people that know Putin.
mr Stubb, i appreciate better when only you speak!
It's lovely that two people with Russophobia can come together and sizzle in hate together - it's suddenly become exactly what it means to be European.
Hate really does bring people together - it's just lovely to watch.
Italy today is also under heavy 'desinformatzya' propaganda trying to find weak points in Italian Society. From this point of view people like Nathalie represent (also) our antibodies against information pollution :)
Polluzioni notturne
I can relate to Nathalie. I was also, at least in part, supporting Putin and Russia, but the main thing that made me reconsider my position, was when I realized that Putin's regime in completely oppressing his own people. No independent media, no independent politics, no independent thought allowed, and even if he was right in some things, the alternative that he is offering is just not good enough
Agreed.
None of which means he's weak Basically this discussion here concluded that Putin won't agree to peace.
There will not be peace.
But try and recover sufficient of the territory from Putin that Ukrainians will accept a truce over a nuclear escalation and getting incinerated.
Wow. This is some position.
I do not support Putin but I support humanity and the survival of humanity. If you spend a bit time to understand this conflict from the time prior to Maidan revolution, then you will see that it was the west who pushed Ukraine to severe their realtion with Russia. The west replaced legitimate leader of Ukraine, i.e. Yanukovych, with pupets who willingly to make Russia an enemy. Read in more detailed why Yanukovych rejected to sign the agreement with EU.
@@kenirawadi4689 False. Russia has tried to genocide Ukraine multiple times across centuries. The legitimate leader comitted crimes, and the legitimate government voted to remove him from power. Do tou cry when the Italian government falls? Or when Belgium has no government for like three years? It happens. Parliaments vote. Yanukovych was a Russian puppet. He fled to Russia to not face consequences for his murders. He rejected the EU deal because Putin paid him off.
@@kenirawadi4689 Following your suggestion, I went back to several articles and analyses from November 2013. I saw the pressure that Putin put on Yanukovych not to sign the agreement with the EU. I saw the illegal and unpopular imprisonment of Yanukovich hated political enemy, Yulia Tymoshenko. I saw a regime becoming little by little more and more dictatorial. I saw that a majority of the Ukrainian people wanted to be closer associated with the EU, and manifested when Yanukovich made a 180 on his electoral promise to do so. I saw that the use of abusive force by Yanukovich against the first demonstrations only resulted in them getting stronger and more vocal... until this unsubtle politician cornered himself.
I read nothing about a "coup" by the West. I therefore believe that your version is based primarily on Russia's vision of what happened... not to say propaganda. However, if you give me convincing links supporting your version, I shall gladly read them and, if convinced, changed my opinion.
@@st-ex8506 In answer to your request to Ken for links backing up his viewpoint you need look no further than the writings of Noam Chomsky, Professor Mearsheimer, Henry Kissinger or Eric Zuesse to name a few.
I also dont think a majority of Europeans would accept peace with the anti Russia atmosphere there is in almost all the European countries at the moment. I have not heard anyone, being center, left or right say Ukraine should accept giving land up for peace at this moment in time. Now that might change if Russia can pull a miracle out their butt and turn the tide, but for now I feel there is very strong support for the Ukraine fight.
I think its very hard currently for EU politicians, despite the inflation and energy prices, to sell a peace plan to their own citizens where Russia has any major gains of territory, also because of the politicians own rhetoric about the conflict.
This ends like North and South Korea, an increasingly militarized border somewhere between the existing lines and the internationally recognized Russia-Ukraine border, and occasional incidents. Putin will never stop poking Ukraine in some fashion. He needs to keep it as weak as he can until he can try to take it again. Europe will argue it must focus on energy independence but still offer Russia a share of its energy market out of practicality. The US and Britain will be left to keep Ukraine armed up. Finland has always had its hands full, but could make very helpful contributions by offering training to the Ukrainian military on NATO systems it specializes in.
One thing the Ukraine war is showing who the West true friends are and they are not India, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf states, South Africa, China and Hungary!
No Country in Global south are interested in this another European war.
Because of some compulsions , economic impact's countries are giving support to Western agenda.
Even latin america is not interested in this mess in Europe.
Elon speaks before he thinks. This would be fine if he wasn't the world's richest person with a huge spotlight on everything he says... unfortunately he doesn't seem to care about the responsibility that comes with his position.
I don't think that Europeans who thought to integrate Russia into European systems were necessarily wrong, because it might have worked, and then Europe's eternal Russia problem would have been solved. Hindsight is 20/20 and it's easy to say now that it was short-sighted or whatever, but you could see the effort as being noble.
That said, I've read a lot of comments from Poles and others in Eastern Europe saying they knew all along that Putin would invade. So maybe all Europeans should listen to each other more?
I'm just thinking out loud myself, as someone way over in California without much skin in the game, unless nukes start flying (let's hope they don't).
Musk not only opens his mouth before he thinks, he bought (or pretended to buy) Twitter before he thinks! LOL
Poles & Eastern Europeans have a huge historical chip on their shoulders from centuries of conquest.
Somewhat justifiably suspicious bordering on paranoia. Culture matters.
Anyone who Googles "Putin's strategic incompetence" can find analysis of the strategy against the Russian military and the reasons why political leaders did not attempt to take earlier action.
Those who quietly trained and equipped the Ukrainians with the defensive weapons to blunt the initial attack succeeded.
Quite how anyone in the Kremlin can think serial threats made against Finland, Sweden, UK and Australia would ever not backfire is beyond me. Paying the Dane-geld encouraged repeat attacks.
Reports on opinion surveys show Russian disregard for human rights and their mob boss mentality has solidified most public opinion against them, particularly in Europe.
The majority understand that Putin needs to be undeniably defeated, that truces allowing regrouping while leaving Ukraine under a cloud of uncertainty cannot be tolerated.
As a former trader in the financial markets and thus inherently an analyst, I too must admit to my surprise at russias attack on the Ukraine and that I too was wrong in my view of the geopolitical reality being played out. Thanks for this/these great discussions. The further is quite concerning and, as you quite rightly point out, needs to end with a Russian defeat. Die Zeitenwende (end of an epoch) is real and shocked many western powers, especially here. In Germany. Germany, by its own admission, is still “new” as a power that needs to be leading foreign security policy. Germany is also, due to its historical background, quite pacifist in nature, however the feeling is changing… especially within the general population and will only intensify during the coming months as more and more businesses go bankrupt and the lack of energy security causes social unrest. The western democracies need to take a stronger stance and Ukraine definitely needs our complete support to ensure russias imperialist desires are quashed.
Awesome as always.
7:21 Actually, why so? Why would we be in ww3 had Kviv been taken by Russia in the first week of battle? Not saying that I would have preferred that. But if Russia had taken the capital and control of Kviv and the next 2 biggest cities in the first week, then what? NATO would not be obliged to send troops in. And even if they wanted to, it would have been too sudden. So Russia occupies the major cities, declares no-fly zone, etc. Then what? What would happen next?
Ukraine would have to fight from outside of the cities. Tanks, shells, troops approaching towards the major cities, but how to target? Every round, shell, bullet would be going towards the Russian troops in built-up cities. It would not matter so much what weapons the West gave Ukraine. Russian positions would be in the city buildings. Ukraine would be shelling her own buildings.
Hmm, I guess it simply means more credit to the Ukrainian defenders during the first weeks. Even before major help from outside, Ukraine managed to hold off Russian armed forces from Kviv and other areas as best as was possible. Good on them.
General consensus is he wouldn't have stopped at Ukraine. putin decided to take the easy route to growing Russia. reform russia or invade and conquer it.. he chose invade. but this is not the 1920's or 1940's.
If he walked through Ukraine and Moldova as he expected to, he would be then setting his eyes on the land bridge to Kaliningrad. Don’t forget he thought NATO and the USA were fractured and feeble at this time (Post-Afghanistan pullout).
Because with Kyiv taken, Putin would roll over Moldova (where he has set uo the same “oppressed ethnic Russians need Russian garrison” ploy and already annexed part of that country) in another day. Putin’s Duginist / Ilyinist racist philosophy is this: all slavs should be ruled direct from the Kremlin. Admittedly the Poles certainly win’t like it but too bad. Slavs should not be citizens of nations “mixed” with what they call “Atlantics” and under their government. All slav territories should be contiguous, so borders and non-slavic populations should be rearranged to optimise this. All other populations from the shores of the Atlantic to the Chinese/Korean borders should be vassal states - like the old Warsaw pact countries for the USSR. So - next, at a guess either Putin would roll over some Balkan countries and assert naval control over the Mediterranean or force a corridor through the Poland-Lithuanian border to Kaliningrad so that he can have year-round militarised access to the Atlantic.
Whatever his strategy, Putin and his followers objective is very clearly set out in a ton of Duginist diatribes. (And before that by Ivan Ilyin, whose entire archive Putin personally purchased. Ilyin loved living in Germany in the 1930s, and much admired the nazis. It’s not a coincidence that all of this smacks of master-race and Lebensraum ideology - it is lifted directly from it.)
By the way, if you want to know the genocidal refime planned for Ukraune un the event they had taken Kyiv, it was published about April 3 or 4 in the RIA Novosti website: Что Россия должна сделать с Украиной (What Russia Should Do With Ukraine). Basically, force them to live in the rubble to “atone for their guilt in opposing Russia” for not less than a generation, under a regime of “suppression, surveillance, censorship and re-education”. As we already saw in the occupied territories, administrators, educators, judiciary are are to be replaced by Russians and all Ukranians are to undergo “total lustration” (cleansing or purging) - the process used in the filtration camps, perhaps. And not only are Ukrainians - all regarded as inherently nazi - to be de-Ukrainianised, Ukraine itself is to be annihilated even as an administrative unit, even as a word in school textbooks. Of course it is full of euphemisms, but sometimes the detail is quite straightforward in this government-approved essay in the government news website: “those who cannot be re-educated must be eliminated”.
I don't think we would have been in WW3 immediately. I do think we would have been in a scramble to reinforce along the border and Russia would have been squeezing EU energy sooner. China's support would have been more obvious and more vocal. India's position would be more tenable. The cost of Putin taking Ukraine would have been way way more than that assistance we have given so far. This would have been like buying a subscription to a new cold war while starting off in debt, over time that cost would have been several orders of magnitude grater than what we will do for a Ukraine with a western future. The stand of Ukraine has made the west united, severely weakened Russia and almost certainly curtailed what a future Russian dictator will be capable of and, provided Ukraine wins which will take continuing western unity; may mean a long pause in Russian aggression. If Putin takes this to the point that insulated Russians in the powerful cities actually feel it then we may see a Putin replacement take over with a mandate to cool all of this down.
In this new age, no one will want to pay for large & inefficient organizations such as the EU. This age will bring unparalleled freedom to individuals that are talented and able,so EU is lost
She's amazing
two points from 7:20
1) Kyiv. Forget that Kiev
2) There's no Zelenskyi and Ukrainians would not hold on Kyiv => Kyiv is kept by Armed Forces of Ukraine. Point. If you believe that bs on airborne troops on Bankova vulytsia consider following Valery Zaluzhny instead of Podoliak/Arestovich
I think as Nathalie Tocci stressed out the issue of nukes is very related with the moment Putin understand that his strategy doesn't work out and i believe that this moment is very close to the period Ukraine would start to regain Crimea
Thank you for the quality content again Mr. Stubb
.. and I really like your style "..left to the people who know their stuff" 😅😂👍
It’s obvious that there will be no winners to this conflict. The best we can hope for is a stalemate. Sooner or later all sides will have to make compromises and come to the negotiating table. For the sake of those innocent lives now being lost and the toll of human suffering, better we realise this now.
Great interview. I think you were a little harsh on Elon though. His opinion is shared by a number of Americans, and is worth digging into, if for no other reason than it might predict some future hesitance of America continuing their funding through to a 'full victory' for Ukraine.
Also, people nowadays look much more negatively on speakers who dismiss others out-of-hand as 'not expert' - look where all the 'experts' have gotten us over recent years.
I have had very low respect for Elon Musk but there's been signs that he's been working for betterment of humanity too. But he's no genius or engineer. He's a business man. Other ruthless people like Steve Jobs, have also given innovation and advancement. These products are remarkable, but ultimately they make few people very rich while impoverished people work hard and poor countries get the ill effects of say, lithium mining.
" He's a business man." - Sorry Musk is no businessman. Musk is a conman who built his empire on empty hypes and lies (and stealing Tesla from true founders Martin Eberhard and Marc Tappening).
How would Elon Musk feel if SpaceX and/or Tesla were nationalized and taken away from him?
Thanks for another University level video. Prof. Stubb is, perhaps, a little too considerate of the feelings of some personalities other then Putin. I refer to putin's western apologists, if not outright puppets, D. Trumpsky and E. Muskovite, among others. As always this lesson was very thought-provoking.
"Leave peace to professionals" - Like what? Blowing up a pipeline? supplying arms and ammunition when a possible peace deal was possible. May be it should be clarified which professionals. Peace brokers or conflict entrepreneurs/war mongers.
So both of you admit that you were wrong, but someone is asking for peace talks, you state he should leave it up to you (2) two PHDs
Is there any evidence that Russia bombed NS1? From what I could hear on the Internet there's currently several smoking guns implicating the US - but this is obv not proven. Would love to learn what your perspective on this is with regards to evidence pointing at Russia.
If I may answer: US had the means, US had the motive, US had promised they will see that Nord Stream pipelines are bye bye if Russia attacks Ukraine. So Russia did it, because they didn't know how else to cut out the gas flow. Now how logical is that?
I was kind of upset, when Elon turned out to be such a coward, because I used to idolize him. But i guess, that's what he is worth, when it really counts. All the money in the world can't buy you integrity and courage. I hope we will all stand united until Ukraine is free, restored and a true member of the European family of nations. Democracies have to stand their ground.
Is Putin's neuclear arsenal as dilapidated as his military? It's expensive to maintain atomic bombs and given the evidence that corruption has degraded Russia's armed dorces its not a long stretch to imagine Russia's neuclear deterent is similarly degraded. So what do we do if Putin launches a nuke and it fails to fully detinate?
I don't want Musk-icing on my cake
nice shirt.
Thanks to You Alexander. You are one of the first politicians, that are able to admit, that they have made also mistakes. I hope to see You as a candidate for the president of Finland in the year 2024.
Russia can still be integrated into the system, but only demilitarized and denuclearized like Japan, and de-federated.
Not before the US is fractioned and returned to native americans.
De-claw, de-fang, and de-Zombify.
There is only one off ramp from this conflict and that is for there to be a new president of Russia and a full Russian exit from Ukraine.
I don't think it's a mistake to think about the economy afterall the economy is an ecosystem, you know like if the option of nearby resources versus going far, far away for those resources you go for the nearby resources, going somewhere else is either because you have the power, the resources or an ideological agenda which is what the USA has in regards towards energy and you're seeing that with Saudi Arabia , the USA wants to imagine that its ideology is stronger well the Saudis have said we don't care about democracy, they don't care about the ideological goals of the USA they care about their economic needs and their needs are money. And because of ideology the USA can't turn towards Iran, Mexico and Argentina are going to want the USA to play nice with the region including giving into Cuba's demands and they're probably going to ask for lots of political favors and money the USA is basically screwed as long as it sticks to ideology, which perfect for China because they have no ideology on the international stage.
Saudi Arabia might want money but they also want security. We don't need to turn to Iran, just remind the Saudis what happens when we turn away from them.
Something is wrong with Elon, now he is an expert diplomat, politician and knows it all.
Shut up Elon melon.
When Putin attacked Ukraine in February I thought he was going to annex Donetsk and Luhansk, because he only had 160 000 troops. Even the US used over half a million troops to invade Iraq plus another 180 000 foreign troops.
Actually the invasion force was 192 000 Americans, 45 000 British and a small contingent of Australians and Polish troops. They also had 70 000 allies on the ground in Iraq (similar to Putin's ~50 000 separatists in Ukraine).
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD I should have been more specific.Those numbers refer to the initial invasion phase, which lasted from 19 March to 1 May 2003. Eventually the US deployed the numbers I mentioned. There was no indication that Putin was willing to send in more troops.
@@phoeniximperator Because unlike Putin, the US did not have the delusion that the Iraqis would greet them with bread and flowers.
It's terrible to know what's coming and then see it happen. This was excruciating. Much worse than I imagined. God bless and protect Ukrainians and all who defend Ukraine
💛💙💜💙💛
there aren't professionals to peace, just Anglo pawns
Dzień dobry ... tydzień jak tydzień ... tydzień do tygodnia niepodobien... pracowity ...nieprawdopodobny ... zaskakujący ...ból brzucha niosący... jeszcze się nie skończył ... przepraszam, włączyłam sobie "litery", lubię czytać i słuchać ... szczególnie, gdy tematyka o propagandzie, ona ciekawa, jak z której strony wygląda.
so how does one get vladimir putin into a court ??
She reminds me very well on Fiona Hill ... sharp-minded & eloquent ... thx for this talk
UK or US Fiona Hill?
Elon is obviously a fool.
If I left peace to the professionals, I wouldn't be alive. Just saying.
I think I know where you're coming from there and if I do that's a very solid point.
What a couple of hawks
Also, Ukraine thought first the US was too provocative. They didn't want weapons before the war. Even after Russian military gathered along their borders, Ukraine didn't believe Russia would invade them.
Is that wrong?
Nathalie why do you think Putin thinks he can still win while we the west thinks he cannot - what do you know that he doesn't know? Or how come you're smarter than him? Would be great to understand why you think what you think.
musk might not be a political analyst but if ukraine wins the conventional war putin might use more than tactical nukes. are we willing to risk that? is it worth the risk? can a nuclear power be defeated? is putin willing to accept a defeat?
The sanctions are what eventually will break Russia. It seems like the west would like the situation to not become too severe for Russia in the battlefield too early but when the general situation in the country makes it obvious that there is little to gain from annexing ukraine territory compared to the enormous loss of being an isolated pariah state.
perhaps not ironically, Musk thinks he is THE professional and expert. on everything imaginable. the internet itself is not big enough for his ego.
I think somebody in Moscow called Elon Musk and offered him stake in Gazprom. He is an entrepreneur after all
Conman and entrepreneur not synonyms.
Is there any evidence that Russia bombed NS1? To my knowledge there's currently more smoking guns implicating the US. Happy to learn more and hear your perspective on this.
What smoking gun? Kind of vague.
@@ChucksSEADnDEAD somehow my comment and reply to your comment disappeared or was deleted
Musk has a lot of financial interests in China, the Chinese want this war over, so Musk says Ukraine needs to give up land for peace. What's the question?
If the Chinese want the war over, they can sanction Russia.
Nathalie Tocci is an excellent commentator. When I only heard her, I hardly detected an Italian accent in her British accented English, but when I scrolled up from the comments to the video her hands give away her an Italian accent that looks much like my Nana's.
When Putine abandoned his role as mob-boss & assumed the mantle of an Orthodox Christian Soldier for quasi-Leninist ideology - probably to seek a place for his ego among the Ikons of Russian history - he also abandoned his skill set. He is not good at what he is doing now. Putine is especially bad at failing publicly.
Putine imagines that his brutality is an asset, but applied in Europe it is not. Putine's only asset is tenacity - his only hope is the fragility of Western unity. I love Russia; I love Russian culture and I love my Russian friends, so it gives me no pleasure to say this but the only path I see, with a chance to rip Putine's grip from the levers of power, is box cars of Russians returning home in body bags; along with explicit communication to the Russian people of the West's conviction that sanctions will NEVER be lifted from Russia's economy as long as war-criminal Putine holds power. We must convince Russians of that endless winter in their bones. I'm not telling you that I know how to do that.
More than half a century ago, I was a Life Guard on a southern California beach on a cool but sunny Xmas day. A great storm had whipped up huge >25 foot waves. Our only job was to tell surfers that if they were foolish enough to go into that ocean & were to get into trouble they could not expect us to volunteer to die trying to save them. In fact, we were forbidden from entering that storm surf, for any reason. - not that we needed to be constrained. A few guys made good rides, three young men drowned - one was thrown up, unconscious, onto the beach by the sea gods for us to resuscitate. Putine is that guy. The little guy on the tiny board on a huge wave, in an unforgiving sea. All of us who imagined that we understood the thug, KGB Col. Vladimir Putine are similarly our of our depth.
From my perception following youtube news :
1) Elon Musk first jumped in to support Ukraine with a big passionate hoo-haa , probably to market SpaceX,
2) then , recently, there was a statement by Putin against SpaceX amongst other private supporters of Ukraine (in the backdrop of anti satellite activity from Russia),
3) then Elon Musk suddenly changed sides.
Money talks louder than words :-) .. don't get me wrong, all in all I appreciate Elon Musk's contribution to the world
Yes, I agree. I said to my husband "musk is sucking up to Putin so that his satellites aren't blown out of the sky".
Elon is an opportunistic leach and parasite that got real lucky in the 1990's and made it big and has since bought his way onto successful looking projects and spent a lot of money on PR creating a persona to come across as looking like an engineer and a genius when he most definitely is not. His accolades are purchased, not earned. His contributions to the world have been F**k all, except 10 illegitimate born children born to 10 different women.
Usually all the predictions that this Italian expert makes are wrong.
West´s liberalism is not only source and basis for international court of justice. watch what EU done and doing in Africa,small counteries around of world,libya, lebanon, yemen,... list goes on and on. EU is getting what deserve on own prejudice agains people.
Elon who?