Why Wall Street HATES the Tesla Bot (Ep. 518)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 28 ม.ค. 2022
- Is the Tesla Bot good or bad for TSLA stock price?
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I think it is important to differentiate between Tesla's Focus and Elon's Focus. Tesla isn't just Elon. In fact Elon made it a rule from the very beginning to only hire people who are team players, problem solvers and can handle pressure. Once a direction is fully formed by Elon, the other teams at Tesla are more than capable to execute those plans on their own. Even if Elon wouldn't spend another second to think about EVs, Tesla will still execute his plans.
Exactly. It’s like everyone wants growth CEOs to not think outside of the box. The only reason we’d want Elon focusing on cars is if there was a problem with that side of the business.
I doubt investors see it this way… Elon is an extremely dominant CEO and if his new pet is the bot (with all due respect) it definitively brings a concern regarding the tangible revenue generation activities.
Exactly this. Tesla automotive will run 99% without Elon. He's still there for strategic vision.
YES
Great point. Didnt think about that one!!!
The most bullish thing for me personally was that this far-reaching goal actually ensures Elon’s close engagement in Teslas future
Agreed. He solved manufacturing electric vehicles at scale. It’s time for something new that excites him.
Great point
@@BoeyChar absolutely
...and Karpathy's too
You’re currently my most favorite TH-camr. Keep killing it Dave!
Dave is pumped and on fire with content!!
Yes! Dave, for your own sake please take a day off!
It's funny how dumb wallstreet is when it comes to generational companies. Keep buying the sale.
Dave can't stop thinking about the earnings call. I love it. Wall Street has no idea how big Tesla is actually going to be.
Bot
@A Mi A lot of the price action is derived from option activity. Everyone knew about the blowout and bought calls so makers place downward pressure to bleed out those calls. I agree 30% from ath is ridiculous. Not much of a market when this much manipulation exists and is not investigated as it was also done systematically to avoid any halts. On top of all this Tesla is being targeted so it could be that more pain is coming. I got burned as well.
@@Sal3600 I’m not a bot but I did see the comment.
Lol…..
@@qwazy0158 ...ah, the moment you realize Wall Street always has an edge on retail. Even Dave says "long term" because the big boys love volatility.
Hey Dave
Yes that interview with Gary Black was eye opening. You put my thoughts into a video. No more getting g frustrated with "wall street" now I get it. They are dealing with other people's money so they are cautious.
Don't worry they still mess up
@@rowland5951 Yes. We all do.
Wall Street is caught up in a quick returns game. Most people do not understand the difference between trading and investing. Even many who think they are investing tend to move their money around based on what company or stock is currently hot.
Retired now, as I get older looking forward to getting a Tesla Bot to help me stay in my home longer as I get older.
Hope It learns to wipe ass.
@@Jasedabass LMFAO
Tesla Bot is so early in its development that it is very hard to put any value in it. Nothing has been shown yet.
Agreed, Bot can as investment be seen as drifting away from the core business.
I am long so I do not blame shorter term investors.
@@linuxmill exactly. This community knows that the long term is extremely bright. Not a bad thing to have a further discount period.
@@linuxmill The weekend is giving people time to digest everything. We could be back to $1,200 by the end of February.
On the other hand Elon has often stated 1) Tesla will be the best manufacturer on earth 2) Gigafactories will be machines that build the machines 3) The Teslabot will be deployed internally to show it is useful before it is sold to any customer. 4) Robot technology is already ready for it. It's the Tesla neuralnet AI training that needs to be integrated and trained.
So initially teslabots will be factory workers inside GigaFactories just like Amazon uses Kiva's at the FBA's.
Tesla's core business is "helping to move humanity towards a more sustainable future". The Tesla bot fits right in.
Andre, it's not just about short vs. longer term. it's also about probabilities. Something like 1% of new product ideas make it to a successful large profitable business. Tesla now has something like a 90% chance of scaling up their car production for some MAJOR profits in coming years, if Musk doesn't do something massively crazy/stupid. Tesla Bot re "winning" and becoming highly successful is more like 10% or so chance, given the difficulties of AI. Obviously 10% might be way off, but it certainly is nothing close to the 90%, which is likely fairly close to reality, given Tesla's position in BEV's and the resources and planning they're lining up.
I don't blame low-risk vs. high-risk investors and their goals.
Dave is on a roll since the new year
Damn! Dave your analysis, intuition and insightfulness has gone to another level. I love these videos. You’re making a difference and we appreciate it. I’m a long term bull and have 210 shares In Tesla and nothing else. We’re all in this together 💪🏼
Wow Dave is pumping out these awesome videos a couple times a day! We appreciate your hard work Dave!
You’re a champ Dave, plain and simple
First, I'm a great fan of yours, and am amazed at how much solid, well substantiated information you share with us. Thank you!
A minor mathematical excursion: "Exponential growth", "S curve" and "inflection point" are commonly used together to describe disruptive growth. There is a problem with convolving these terms together. Mathematically, an exponential function does not have an inflection point. The curve is always exponential at any scale. An exponential function is exponential in behavior and so is its slope. (In calculus terms, all derivatives of exponentials are exponentials) There is no point in an exponential curve where there is either an inflection point or a region of constant slope. (a straight line in the curve) An inflection point implies a discontinuity in slope, and a straight line implies a departure from exponential growth. This is a subtle point, but it is important if you are looking for some event that triggers a sharp change in growth rate. A simple Exponential growth curve implies a process with a constant rate of change, for example +50% per year. It is possible, of course to have a change in the percent growth, which then changes the steepness of the growth, but that just means splicing a different exponential onto the old one. Tesla is pretty clearly riding an exponential growth curve, and it looks like the rate of growth is increasing. (an exponential curve with an increasing exponent)
That about exhausts my insight without digging out my old college textbooks. I am not a mathematician, but rather an engineer with a math/physics background. Somebody with better math skills than mine will probably beat me up here, but I bring this up because the way you fit data is very important if you want to predict a future state, and the farther ahead you look the bigger the error if you choose the wrong model. Finally, here is the point of all of this: I am saying that you might be too pessimistic by invoking a straight line after a kink in the curve if it is not caused by an inflection point but rather by changing the rate of growth, followed by a newer, bigger exponential. The consequences of this are wild!!!
Cheers,
Great explanation Dave.
FSD is also undervalued as Elon stated. Elons combination of Tesla Bots and FSD focus has been the main cause for TSLA drop in share price. Long term will be amazing.
Well said, Dave. S curve on top of an S curve on top of an S curve.
EVs, Autonomy, Robotic Labor.
Dave thanks for making shorter videos with a single topic. Love them, keep them coming.
Don’t really comment much on videos much but I appreciate Dave’s effort to understand and educate the community on Wall Street’s thought process. The market’s response to the earnings call was frustrating and confusing; but Dave’s video provide much needed clarity. Greatly appreciated!
Im not sure the market is reacting to the earnings call at all just generally panicing over what the FED will do.
If you claim it’s a financial distraction to pursue Optimus, you would have to claim it is a $350billion difference as that’s the market cap we lost by not making some cybertrucks and revealing a compact model EV in 22/23. No chance that’s true. Even if started CT M2 in 22 what are we talking for volume? 250k at 10k profit? That’s $2.5 billion IF ramps flawlessly and doesn’t cannibalize 3/y sales and slow 3/y production lines. Bot development/success is additive to tesla shareholders. Don’t let anyone say otherwise. Their best move yet for their future.
This is a very interesting perspective. Even if it is a pet project that wastes $350 million, it's still only 1/1000th of the lost value.
So, there's more to the loss than just the Bot. I think it has more to do with delayed products that were announced previously, especially the remarks on the "$25,000 car". Those remarks don't impact the road towards ~5 million units sold in 2025, but do impact the perspective after that.
It's also how Musk said "we're not working on a $25,000 car", which suggests not even having any prototyping going on, despite having suggested that 2 years ago.
Dave, very helpful. Thank you.
Thanks Dave, Your honest calm thinking means a lot ❤️
Thank you Dave. I’ll try to be more patient. I’m a long-term Holder. Thanks, Mike
Great work Dave. Your channel crossed an inflection point looks like :)
I regret a lot that I did nothing when Tesla started IPO. I wish I had loaded more Tesla in 2017/2018. This time I won’t miss the opportunity: I will periodically buy more Tesla, and believe Elon and his team in FSD and Bot. Elon is a visionary guy ahead of this world 10-20 or more years.
Your comment caused me to view the current Bot info almost like an IPO - the company has a good track record but now comes the future & execution. So you're right in a sense. This is the birth point of an investment opportunity.
Its already a bubble.
@@caveman4659 Tesla has no bubble. EPS keeps going up, P/E keeps coming down, Morgan Stanley analysts said Tesla is a cash machine.
@@ckwong96815 it is. Elon is a very creative and visionary person living 10-20 years ahead of us. To him, Tesla’s EV business is a done deal, on track to grow YoY, not worth to empathize. FSD is the next big wave (most Wall Street analysts don’t realize it yet), and Bot is in the horizon.
@@jz6518 Well most hedge funds agree tesla is ridiculously overvalued. I wish you good luck on your investment.
Hey Dave you nailed it! 🔨
Have a good weekend my man 🍻
Love your work 👍👍
I agree this is a typical Wall St. reaction, happened after Batt Day, AI Day, etc.
Excellent perspective as always.
I think you have nailed it Dave. I see this holding the share price back some amount and is great news for those that aren't myopic investors.
Dave. You are on fire bro!!!!
As always, Dave makes some excellent points. I think short to medium term, what will also be a big driver of the stock price and how the broader market and WS thinks about Tesla will be ev related product launches that Elon mentioned. This might help curb some of the pullbacks on stock price when Elon talks bots.
very very deep learnings with S curve ....amazing video dave...loved it ..hey retail investors lets just accumulate TSLA over the course of time cause wall street is never gonna buy TSLA in coming months ....its a great fkn opportunity to accumulate the vision of TSLA..lets do this
Thanks so much for your helpful information and your time 🙏🙏🙏
Dave. Excellent analysis of the two camps.
Thank you Dave for interpreting what is happening with Tesla and after Earnings call! This was so clear and true and help to ease my worries as an individual invester. I was wondering where Tesla was on the S curve, and happy to hear your thoughts that its at the inflection point! Thank you again for deciphering TSLA what is going on for the lay people share holders!!!
Good stuff Dave. Love your quality content.
thank you, Dave, have a great day!
You are on fire Dave, keep it up!
FSD , Bot, AGI, it’s actually the best possible things I can invest today. Yeah it’s all long term projects, but you vote with your money. And that what I want to vote for)
Nope it’s not.
Dave is nonstop!!! Wow
My conclusions too Dave. Wall St likes slow and steady not fancy ideas.
Excellent explanation Dave, very inciteful a real eye-opener so to speak, keep 'em coming!
Thanks again Dave for the interviews and analyses.
I hope the stock tanks to 750 next week 😂 I need a bigger discounts
Will tank to 650-700 within one or two months
Thanks for your vision 👏👏👏
Man your work rate is intense!
My view of Tesla as an investment.
EV business = $4K/share by 2026
Energy business = $1K/share by 2026
Total value in 2026 = $5K/share.
Tesla has a clear plan on the EV and Energy businesses, AND tons of cash.
It is fantastic that Tesla is looking ahead 5 years for new opportunities now. Why wait?
FSD and Bots are like free call options.
It would be totally different if Tesla was struggling with gross margin and had a mountain of debt, like their so-called legacy car competitors.
Tesla is not a car company. It is an innovation company.
I bought more shares this week @ $800, when only 3 months ago, I never thought it would ever be this cheap again. What a bargain!
I like your bear 🐻 case or should I say bare minimum
Tesla bulls: Tesla is not just a car company.
Tesla: We are not just a car company.
Some bulls: why can't you just be a normal car company?
YES! Love it Dave. Keep up the great work!
Dave congratulations for the 200k subscribers!
Also can you share with your portfolio or tell us what stocks are you holding ?
Its not just the bot. I read some comments on financial reports, where all they took from the call was, Tesla is going to have supply chain problems.
...battery constrained maybe, too.
I couldn't agree more. 100% Factual on all fronts noted.
makes sense. I do think the fsd and bot plug in nicely to being able to maintain that upward trajectory long after the pure ev growth play tapers off. Amazing future ahead for Tesla.
Very interesting observations on
the Tesla Bot Congrats on
topping 200k subscribers Dave
You're flipping out high quality
videos like pancakes dude!!
Tesla's core business is "helping to move humanity towards a more sustainable future".
The Tesla bot fits right in.
You da man Dave 🤜🏼🤛🏽
You (inadvertently) touched on a key point just at the end "making cars is a slow process to scale it's not like software"
As I'm sure you know software is a huge component of this product and much easier to scale hence the jump to the bot
Thank you for your insight again.
Well said, as always.
Tesla Bot is also amazing for recruiting the best engineering talent. It’s inspirational and aspirational. Some of these Wall Street analysts completely miss that. Tesla is in essence fortifying their engineering mega moat for decades to come.
Great Dave, that you understand better why investors sold Tesla stock. I believe in Tesla, but the should clearly communicate where their short en long term priorities are.
Hi Dave , I always like your videos which are very instructive.
Great point Dave. It’s awesome Tesla has so many facets of the business each having its own S-curves at different points on the curve. As Auto climbs towards the middle of the incline, Robotaxi kicks in. When Auto flattens out on the adoption curve, the Tesla Bot would have certainly have begun its own inflection point on the curve. If you overlap these various S-curves, it actually looks like a wave is propagation along the axis. Ride the Tesla wave!
I don’t mind if stock is low for a while it just gives me time to gather money and buy more stock
Dave, imagine trying to visualize our dependence on the iPhone in the year 2000.
That is why very few people can visualize the usefulness of the Tesla Bot.
Wrong, the robot and AI are a totally different thing, also AI has a very bad side that no one wants to talk about, in China they have been using it to control the population everywhere they go.
When I think back at how the Wall-Street analyst reacted after a Tesla-event (like A.I.-Day, and Battery-Day, for example), it seems to me that they never understood the provided information, their implications, and Tesla’s potential valuation path. The stock-price has always dropped suddenly after each event, which is a nice buying opportunity, of course. I‘m quite sure the same thing will happen when Tesla presents the prototype of the Tesla-bot. It will probably do rather simple things and the analyst not being able to understand the implications will say „If this is what Tesla is focusing on, they‘ll be doomed!“.
Strongly agree with all of you observations, Dave. Unfortunately, Wall street will "lag" significantly on the ride up the "S" curve, and the stock will be generally undervalued as a result. Fortunately, I can wait!
Dave , the bot 'sub' was a siren call to recruit AI rockstars and that was a huge success. The problem is Elon is using financial conference calls to grandstand future visions. We needed a rerun of 2021 growth with just a model Y standard edition launch and a 75% growth prediction and a guidence for 4860 model Y transition. That would has been perfect. AI day product demo can be kept for the nerds amoung us who understand the implications? We can all watch the videos of the FSD beta getting more confident!
Dave! you are the best!
Thanks, Dave!
Thanks for reminding us of the big picture.
Spot on Dave!
As a Tesla investor I’m happy for Optimus “subprime” both for the lower stock price so I can buy more shares at a lower price , as well as, the crazy long term growth it could and most likely bring.
Yeah, train slowed down, I am happy to have more time to fill it up 🚂
I'm enjoying the shorter videos -- thanks Dave! P.S.: please turn down the treble gain on your microphone or put a sock over it
Superb video. Excellent explanation shedding lights on TESLA vision AI. You have acute comparison between Wall St yearly or short term mentality and Elon's designs and safety for the future. Many on Wall St don't see that- excellent analysis. I truly enjoy watching your video. Go Bears!
Mathematically, the "Point of Inflection" is where the second derivative is zero. That is where the slope of the curve changes from increasing to decreasing. The term has been hijacked by the business community to mean something less well-defined. That's sad. They should make up their own term and define it to avoid confusion. "Lift-off" might do.
John, just because the concept can be described in other than precise math terms, doesn't mean the common business understanding of the inflection point of a growth graph is wrong. It doesn't make it sad.
If you exclude everyone from every discussion who doesn't have all the formal education required to deal with it in the terms of experts, groups from different disciplines would find it VERY hard to work together.
No one who hasn't taken differential calculus is likely to understand the concept of second derivative well. Should your doctor refuse to explain your medical treatment to you because you didn't take organic chemistry, much less have a medical degree?
@@rogergeyer9851 I agree that the term "second derivative" will be obscure to many people. However, the concept of the point at which "the slope of the curve changes from increasing to decreasing" does not require any knowledge of calculus. It could also be described as the point at which the "curvature is zero".
How does the business community define the "inflection point"? How is the position shown in the diagram in Dave's video determined?
As for your medical analogy, if you go to your doctor with a headache and tell him that your appendix is hurting he won't examine the last pages of the book you are carrying because that use of the term would be out of context, but he will be misled. The point here is that the mathematical context and the business context are the same. They both relate to the S-Curve but they do not refer to the same point on the curve.
Also, business experts, who clearly know a great deal of mathematics relating to the calculus of probability distributions and statistics generally, should not be so sloppy in their use of jargon that has a very clear and easy-to-understand definition because that generates confusion and not enlightenment.
Great video. "Certainty, Predictability and Preservation of assets" - yes! But all of that will become obvious to investors in the very near future as Tesla rides the S curve and as it's new manufacturing expertise (castings and structural 4680 packs) becomes clear. They will get it. But the reality of the Bot is this: it's tasks will not be nearly as hard to learn as driving. Tesla needs to make it move like a human then train it to do something simple and then they'll get the Bot too. I actually think that once they get it moving correctly and then the tasks ((i.e. the things that it can do) will be attached quite quickly. If they can demo Optimus looking good in Fremont in 2022 it will all be over.
I think Gary Black's explanation why this is happening.People are really not ready for the Tesla Bot.This should have been brought up in the future with a real working model.The public has been conditioned to look at robots with fear
Dave, as usual, LOVE your comments. My nagging heartburn is how could the tremendous talent at Tesla so misread their earnings call audience, or did they? They know portfolio managers/institutional investors can't model FSD/Bot, so why double down on them on an earnings call? Elon's REFUSAL to provide a product roadmap and redirect to FSD was a disaster. This was so predictable. My nagging question is why do this and crater the stock price? They KNEW this would not be well received at an earnings call - again, wrong audience.
Elon always chooses his words very carefully. You can bet this was deliberate. My advice would be to load up on stock while you can (not financial advice). 🙂
1) Elon has always taken pleasure in taunting Wall Street and shorts with an "I-don't-care" attitude about the short-term stock price, as evidenced in his tweets and interviews. 2) Elon/Tesla has always been about a broader vision of technological and societal change, regardless of what Wall Street thinks about it. He pursues his dreams, not his valuation. 3) Elon has been subtle about allowing the people who see and share his vision to get in at lower prices and dips now, knowing and trusting what's going to happen in 2, 5, and 10 years.
@@MarkXHolland 🤔 Pretty sure SEC would frown on "deliberate manipulation" of stock price. PS. All loaded up!
Perhaps Elon doesn't care a lot about the stock price? And why should he? Tesla no longer needs to raise capital via either stock sales or borrowing.
Elon was being Elon. He was being frank about where he sees the near future heading. It's not private car ownership but transportation as a service with us spending far less of our resources moving ourselves around.
@@jesuguru2394 I have no problem with Elon's vision, but there's no question this last earnings call was a disaster. Perhaps Elon's comments/vision would be more appropriately shared at a "special event" rather than an earnings call who's primary audience is portfolio managers and institutional investors who hold approx. 50% of Tesla's shares. The refusal to provide a product roadmap predictably cratered the (short-term) stock price. My question is "why"? LOTS of BIG MONEY in this stock and I have my guesses, but they're just that.
Thanks Dave!
Exactly. It blows my mind that Wall Street doesn’t understand this. Model 3 won’t hit the inflection point until 1 or even 2 years . When it hits it will be incredible. Wall Street probably wont understand the impact the Bot will have to the world until 5 to 10 years. It will be crazy cool.
Wondering if you could do a video on the potential future of Tesla insurance? Thanks for all you do!!
FSD is the real story. 60,000 beta testers is very bullish.
Really enjoying these shorter episodes.
Dave wouldn’t you say there are multiple S curves for Tesla? One curve for cars, the second for energy, and the third for the Tesla Bot. I thought your analysis of the institutional side of the business was spot on. I think the street will come back in favor of Tesla once the production numbers and elevated profits rise with Austin/Berlin and the growth of Shanghai and Fremont continues over the next year. This last week was just a speed bump.
Yes. He mentioned cars and bots in this video. Cars inflection happening soon, bots later.
Thanks for bringing clear perspective on the Ai/AGI/Bot topic. Agree wholeheartedly with you. Is it possible Elon will not be on any future earnings calls?
Great explanation, Dave. It’s like the investors can’t walk and chew gum at the same time. Tesla is still focusing on the car business by delaying new models and only ramping up the products (Y and 3) that have superb margins. That alone should instill enough investor confidence which should manifest in a bullish share price. The Tesla BOT is gravy on top of the meal.
I see it as a cherry on a cake. Mmm, cake. 🍰
@@MarkXHolland 😂
Yes! Absolutely true!!!
Wall Streets reaction reminds me of the title of a book, “If you’re so clever, why aren’t you rich”. They have continued to underestimate Tesla, so at least their consistent and predictable in that…
Excellent thanks 👍
Love how this video was made for retail, institutions , and even Elon himself. Informational, opinionated, but non confrontational. The future looks bright for Tesla any way you look at it.
...unless China can produce an affordable $25k EV for the masses. Then, Tesla might be the one 5 years behind the competition.
Wall Street doesn't understand the Tesla Bot applications. Therefore value can't be applied to it.
Perfectly valid points Dave BUT Tesla Management is not stupid and why they blew this phenomenal numbers is beyond me.
it is r&d and capex money, so it will also take down ROIC for a while. a good analogy is when Japan's Disneyland operator said they are going to do a second theme park DisneySea. at that point, one would imagine that it is automatic money and the stock should boom with it. it did not, the professionals viewed it as money that would be spent for a while without seeing commensurate returns for years. so the stock did not take off for a long time. same thing occurring here, but with an even more difficult business to wrap their heads around.
Dave makes sense out of diverging interests pulling the stock price in both directions.
Great quarter! The lower the price the lower the risk. This company is printing cash! Ill keep buying, they can keep selling!
Plenty of short term catalysts for profit growth though.
Likely 70+% growth in 2022 deliveries, and with growing margins, even greater profit growth.
FSD is going to explode before the the Tesla bot, so I do not see a problem for short term outlook anyway.
Looking good both short and long term to me.
Yeah the bot will be forgotten in a couple weeks. (Hopefully).
Why do I get this image of Musk dressed like Gene Wilder in Young Frankenstein dancing on a stage with the Tesla bot?
Puttin' on the Ritz!
Good let them hate it. That keeps the price low for me so I can DCA in more.
I’m pretty sure we can expect a new CEO compensation package at the annual meeting which takes into account the ridiculous financial possibilities of autonomy.
Thank you for everything you do, Dave! You are a treasure in this community.