ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 4 มิ.ย. 2024
- NVIDIA stock's massive success in the GPU market is thanks to huge generative AI demand. In fact, generative AI currently sits at the top of Gartner's hype cycle. So, what happens when that demand dries up? Will NVDA stock crash? The trough of disillusionment. This is where interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. At a certain point, the market is likely to realize that it's vastly overestimated the potential of generative AI... according to Gartner. Do you agree?
RESEARCH PIECES USED IN THIS VIDEO:
1. NVIDIA’s Growth is Stalling: Why We’re Not Worried
www.nanalyze.com/2023/03/nvid...
2. The Artificial Intelligence Stock That Rocked Wall Street
www.nanalyze.com/2016/11/arti...
3. NVIDIA stock isn't overvalued. Here's why.
• NVIDIA stock isn't ove...
CHAPTERS:
00:00 Intro
00:28 Gartner's hype cycle
03:33 The Next Microsoft
05:02 NVIDIA's business segments
09:52 The BCG Matrix
13:10 Is this time different?
13:52 Our take on NVIDIA
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$NVDA
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#aistock
#nvidiastock
#aichips
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They said no one would want a computer in their home. Around 1983. An investment in Intel at that point…
Sounds like you might enjoy our piece on "the next Intel": th-cam.com/video/HHrHDbMzlQw/w-d-xo.html
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."
-Peter Lynch
Good point. It's why investors ought to have rules that dictate when they sell as opposed to trying their hand at market timing.
@@Nanalyze as long as your "Selling Rules" aren't based on perceptions of market timing.
Rules imply objectivity which reduces market timing risk
I wonder how high the valuation can go and what revenues will be needed to maintain it once the growth slows.
Wonder what the "new normal" will be for data center revenues
On a not quite related topic, what about Apple? Are they at or past their peak? When they cancelled their car they said they would devote those resources to AI and make some kind of announcement at their next big event in a few months. Will they get a huge bump up because of the AI hype, or not?
Hey Don. We haven't covered Apple here though that might be something we look to do in the future.
NVIDIA is the leader of AI, there are no buts and ifs 😊. AI is not in the hype cycle.. it’s at the verge of breakout into real world.. unlike other fads, SORA and plethora of other breakthroughs showed potential of it already..
So this time it's different?
heard the same story with crypto at its peak during the last bull run
The internet was a lasting positive change but it went through a bubble. I agree AI will be amazing as well but I think we're a bit over extended right now.
@@patric1337 Have you seen major mainstream companies trying to spend Billions to reinvent themselves in crypto space!!? I guess not.. there may be short term pullbacks.. but I feel bad for most retail investors selling out of their NVDA stock just because some Joe who held it since many years trying to trim it. Every stock has risk, I think holding NVDA for long term is worth the risk
I started to really like your contents. Could you explain the key difference between your free contents and the premium contents?
JFYI. In the past when I paid to subscribe other newsletters, their premium contents did not really have huge advantage over free contents. Figuratively speaking, these free contents had the man tree trunk and large branches, and the premium contents had details of small branches and leaves, but these small branches and leaves weren't good firewood (significant source of energy or wealth). The most interesting parts were the big ideas that were in the free contents. So, I'd like to understand what kind of value your premium contents provide over free contents.
Great question. So we produce about 3 new research pieces a week (added to about 2,400 pieces already produced). We provide paying subscribers with "article summaries" that follow each article. These supplement our flagship Nanalyze Tech Stock Portfolio report which contains our own 30-plus tech stock portfolio which we review every quarter with annual subscribers.
Our flagship report is supplemented by an Excel tech stock catalog which contains over 460 tech stocks with our simple proprietary ratings, valuation ratio including historical date, essentially lots of useful data. Our New Money report contains 10 disruptive tech stocks and 10 dividend growth stocks we find most compelling. All subscribers have access to our Discord server and we run a tight ship to make sure value is being added.
As a bonus, we have our Quantigence dividend growth stock report where most of our own money is invested - in 30 dividend growth stocks. For Premium annual subscribers, we offer trade alerts that cover over 100 stocks (sent on drops of 15% or more or also discretionary). Every week or so you'll receive our Premium newsletter where we talk about new products and reports under development.
Paying subscribers drive our product roadmap and we have over 100 testimonials that we're presently compiling on a single page. The subscription products are fairly priced so everyone can have access to tools that help them become better investors. And probably the biggest value is that we talk directly with our customers - constantly - and make sure they have what they need to become better investors. (Takes sales hat off.) In short, our TH-cam videos are simply a small taste of what we offer. ;)
Questions? Drop us an email anytime. We're here to help. Joe P.
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Can u do big lots?
Can u be more specific?
There’s no hype in Nvidia stock price. It’s free cash flow is a torrent. Its customers are some of the strongest companies on the planet. Nvidia has clear vision into the next year.
This video helps explain how one can easily make the NVIDIA valuation argument in either direction just based on inputs. (th-cam.com/video/PvVkYfWIMpc/w-d-xo.html) Gartner's hype cycle didn't feature NVIDIA, it was referring to generative AI. Microsoft user? Go give the largest tech company in the world's AI product a try. Beyond worthless. That's immaturity. AI has tremendous potential but is seeing a lot of hype right now. Notice how suddenly "AI stocks" are coming out of the woodwork? There are many other reasons to believe AI is hyped beyond just NVIDIA's valuation which can be argued as high or low depending in how you torture the data.
At the end, more companies will produce custom chips for training for AI. When you are making billions, other companies are not going to sit and watch. If Nvidia would be a hardware manufacturer like Intel or Taiwan semiconductor then would have stronger moat as soon as someone else design faster, better, cheaper chip then net sales will do down. I think, for next 12 months it is still bullish for Nvidia but long term it is bearish.
Hard to say on the competition side. All eyes on AMD, something we covered here: th-cam.com/video/SGOumcdPtLw/w-d-xo.html
@@Nanalyze Thank you.
That's hilarious. Competition is soooooo far behind. NVDA has been at this for decades. You don't just decide to design a chip and start selling it overnight. How many years did it take other EVs to chase down Tesla? 6-8 years and Tesla still owns the market.
@@RajDeelish Google already using their own chips and Microsoft deploying this year their custom design chips manufactured by Intel and AMD is much older company than Nvidia. Tesla is producer of EV not only design them. Design is much more easy to do than manufacture.
@@RajDeelish "What about Tesla" arguments don't hold water. Please try to add more value with comments as we run a tight ship and already have enough vapid remarks on this video. When you're a high-margin leader, that's when you should be worried about competition the most.
Nvidia conducts GTC summit every year where they unveil their new products. Their products released gives a pretty good idea of their goal, are the products enterprise focused( data centers) etc. This year, they have it on March 18. They are claim in their developer newsletter that they are releasing products with huge bump in performance and It’ll be data center focused. This event is a good point to decide to sell Nvidia.
We exit disruptive tech stocks for two reasons - if revenue growth stalls or if our thesis changes. Both are highly subjective. You can see our thought process in pieces such as this one (www.nanalyze.com/2023/03/nvidias-growth-stalling/) where we analyze revenue stalls and try to understand what's happening. Selling a stock is not a binary event, and we also trim overweights so that we're capturing alpha as time goes on.
Lots of companies do the razzle dazzle during product intros but we look for traction in the form of revenue growth - the ultimate ground truth. Thank you for the comment and heads up on March 18th! Very useful info.
@@Nanalyze Very insightful. Nvidia’s gaming sector has taken a backseat for now. In the last iteration of Nvidia’s new product release, their products for gaming sector was an after thought. From their claims this year, most of which is directed towards their Grace CPU and Hopper GPU, which is their High Performance Computing systems for Data Centers and towards LLMs. Gaming sector doesn’t need ultra high end performance devices. It needs affordable GPU with decent performance, which has not been Nvidia’s priority now. For now, I agree that data centers are where Nvidia could cull their revenue growth.
i also understood they are interested in building a custom ASIC division (maybe in preparation for the "inference" market).
Interesting. Didn't know this. I think it was Synopsys that said eventually all these AI factories (for large companies at least) will have custom built AI chips. That might help explain the move into ASICs. Joe P.
@@Nanalyze if you check their job listings ( at least in the past year, when I did), they were hiring a lot of ASIC design and verification engineers for SoC.
Between the hype and the perfect concoction of hardware needs, Nvidias price makes sense for now, albeit probably a bit overvalued. It is normally the case that where there is money, competitors will follow. Asml or Tsm may be the exception due to the large barriers of entry, but I don't believe Nvidia tech has the same staying power. Just an uninformed mans opinion, but I think the market is overweight in future expectations for Nvidia. Perhaps one final hype wave before things start taking a break. We are in the trillions now, its not very easy to keep the price sustained.
Great vids, as always. Keeping things simple is clever. Also, saw your comment on the PEG ratio, informed as always.
Sensible comment. We've come to expect them from @MrMentalpuppy ;) And thank you for the kind words. Our guiding light is simplicity. Investing doesn't need to be complex.
This time it literally is different. It’s backed up by reality and fundamentals. Nvidia shouldn’t be mixed up with a Bored Ape now kids
If promising technologies were a night club, NFTs wouldn't even be allowed in the queue
I agree with you 100 %
Next milestones are chip below 1 nm
At some point quantum physics has to keep us from going any smaller, no?
lightmatter (for inference) photonics is probably next. @@Nanalyze
Anybody can go over the numbers from quarter to quarter. I do that, too, but what do you know about the company? Obviously not much if you think Omniverse has anything to do with gaming. Your understanding of the company is about as deep as puddle. It's not vague. You're just making assumptions without doing your homework.
Excellent hard-hitting critical analysis of our piece. Are you looking for employment by chance? We're actually hiring for an armchair quarterback type whose main strengths include leaving drive by criticisms without fully comprehending the material that was presented and responding to it in a manner that benefits our sophisticated audience of investors. Let us know if you're interested and we'll put you in touch with Gwyneth in HR. Lots of great benefits including Hawaiian shirt Fridays.
@@Nanalyze Were you sophisticated enough to understand the opportunity you had in 2022, or do you just like complaining after the fact?
@@Nanalyze Let me guess. You were the "don't fight the Fed, bro" type, right?
Looks like you just enjoy arguing with people so we'll leave this one alone. Anyone who is the slightest bit familiar with our firm knows our past record with NVIDIA.
@@mikebuchanan7610 You don't have to say the same thing over and over. We heard you the first time. If you were reading Nanalyze you wouldn't have been so late to the game mate: www.nanalyze.com/2016/11/artificial-intelligence-stock/
Great video ! Like suggesting Microsoft might be overpriced in 2000 👍👍 took them 15 years to get back to those levels
The video was was about the company strategy, not the stock. This was our piece on the stock's valuation: th-cam.com/video/PvVkYfWIMpc/w-d-xo.html But before you watch our valuation video, watch this one first ;)
Wrong! NVIDIA is NOT over priced. It’s trading at 35 forward PE and growing over 100% yoy!! Your analysis sounds like every other so call analysts who doesn’t read the financial statement!! It’s frustrating to keep hearing people make the SAME FALSE statement over and over again!
We got you covered chief. Here's a video we did recently that shows how one might go about demonstrating NVIDIA is fairly valued. (Spoiler alert - it doesn't involve screaming at people in YT comments sections). th-cam.com/video/PvVkYfWIMpc/w-d-xo.html
alright boss whatever you say
Believing Nvidia might be overpriced is blasphemy. Where is that point in the hype cycle ? Right. Nowhere. Lets go long nvidia
@@gabrielschwarz5457 Hero or zero is ultimately how wealth gets created AND preserved.
NVDA will be $3000 by the end of the year. Bigger than MSFT. All in NVDA now
And yet, this time is different; there is nothing in history to compare with what is happening now, not even the Industrial Revolution. We are facing a technology that will replace millions of jobs, and it is already doing so-graphic designers, photographers, filmmakers, writers, drivers, programmers, lawyers, accountants, and a long etcetera, even financial TH-camrs. It may soon encompass all possible human professions. And where is all that money going to end up? Precisely with the companies that lead the field of AI. We must remember that we are only seeing the beginning, and what AI does today is the worst it will ever do-it can only get better and better. As humans, we have no way to compete against that. Why do companies like Meta and many others, which by definition are technology companies, grow despite massive layoffs of tech staff? Here is the answer.
Nobody is denying the potential of AI. We're merely pointing out that it will go through a hype cycle like every other technology before it. That's human nature.
@@Nanalyze I disagree, we are not seeing a hype cycle, we are seeing only the begining of this revolution, and as I said I think we can't compare this to anything in human history
@@IATotal This video points to some very specific examples of extremely hyped AI stocks, some of which aren't even AI stocks. (th-cam.com/video/CK8u0wytjEQ/w-d-xo.html) Expect pretenders to come out of the woodwork. Blindly moving forward without being able to identify hype isn't going to bode well for people's portfolios.
@@Nanalyze Thnks, I will check it
Nanalyze, I love your spicy sarcastic replies :)
Good feedback, thank you. People derive as much value from the comments section as they do the video. Our channel is unique in that respect. We want to keep things informative and entertaining, just like our videos ;) Joe P.
🙏
You/re most welcome
This comment section is wild. The irony of all these comments being generated by Nvidia bull AI bots 😂
Ain't it though? Many of the NVIDIA bulls you see coming around leaving shallow comments are the bog standard cheerleader types who get caught up in the hype and who (some at least) don't really want to become better investors by debating the merits of a stock. Your biggest position should be the one you're most critical about, which is precisely why we made this video :) Joe P.
NVDA has been in peak optimism for 3 years
Indeed. To be fair, Gartner says that in the next 2-3 years it will crest the peak. We remain cautiously optimistic.
Forgetting the crash in 2022? If you understand a company, and the stock is down, that's called opportunity. Did you take hold of it? I did.
You're kind of late to the game there sir. ;) Maybe you should have been subscribed to Nanalyze so you'd be reading pieces like this gem from 2018, "NVIDIA Stock Price Hits a 52-Week Low - Buy More?" (Hint: we did)
www.nanalyze.com/2018/11/nvidia-stock-price/
❤❤❤Nvda🎉
Tell us how you really feel ;)
@@NanalyzeI love that Girl. One of the few winners over my time. I feel that it would be hard for me to sell this decade. I can't see them stopping to innovate. 🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️🤷♂️✌️✌️✌️
Set objective rules about when you plan to exit any stock so you don't get caught up in the hype. Don't fall in love with stocks, invest in companies.
@@Nanalyze you're right...I need to live life and look at my portfolio ten years from now and see what is looking back at me. (Just Kidding, but maybe🤷♂️🤷♂️) I'll be 60! 🥳🥳🥳🥳🤟🤟🤟👌👌✌️✌️
@@midwestcannabis You sound like a fun character. Can we task you with bringing party favors to Nanalyze meetups? :)
I still have my doubts about “AI” and how it’s continuing to be redefined. Right now and last year the work on AI propped up markets and now the big 7 are running the financial boat. Who said AI is possible. Maybe there are limits to what we can achieve. What happens when we realize these limits have been reached ? There is a lot of emotion in many of these comments, many long stances just short of “ moon “ comments. I’d say if you made your money you’d want out ( the nanalyze guys have done that ) if you are currently buying expecting to make money …. Good luck but I wouldn’t own it outside of indexes. Emotion and the stock market are not great combinations. Anyhow I hope the best and will be looking for your color of Pom poms
Good thoughtful comment @sicksociety334. We've been covering for several decades and have lost track of how many hype cycles there have been. AI is no different. The ultimate potential of AI is extremely promising, but when everything becomes an "AI company" or an "AI stock" then there will be a phase when the real offerings break away from the pretenders. We've been meeting with AI startups across the globe for the past seven years and saw many promising business models. For retail investors, they need to tread carefully. Those looking at NVIDIA now as a possible investment need to believe that NVIDIA will be expanding beyond just data center revenues because that will allow them to sustain their size over time and maximize the value they extract from the opportunity. Another 50% rise and this will be the largest company in the world. They won't stay that way if they're a one-trick pony. And you have correctly noticed the number of cheerleaders coming around. Many of these two-sentence wonders are being told "add value" and their comments deleted because our audience deserves better. It's never a good omen. Once they learn that waving pom poms doesn't create wealth they'll then be able to become investors, not speculators.
Crapto? Me sitting on 5x gains in a year
(Armchair BSD enters room)
You're an absolute legend. Unfortunately, that's not how things end up for the vast majority of people dabbling in that crap. When the annual amount scammed of an "investment opportunity" is measured in hundreds of billions, dabbling is a real bad idea.
Stop loss... simple.
If you invest in a company because you believe in their long-term potential, price drops are where you add, not sell.
@@Nanalyzestop loss at 50%, then nvidia fall from 50K to to 25K (withouth the splitt).
@@pandoorapirat8644 Everyone will have their own unique situation and cost basis. Perhaps when trimming you might use a trailing stop loss to capture more but we invest in companies, not stocks. We want to stick with talking about the company.
@@Nanalyze I believe in AI since i was little child. Thats why only some big disaster would be bad for my NVIDIA Stocks (or reall bubble would happen like FPE 150 ). I will then buy back later if the disaster settles.
NVIDIA will easily double from here. Those not buying now will regret it!
You speak like a fool.
@jeffrose5622 This type of comment isn't useful at all. We're reported you to Gwyneth in HR and she'll be in touch.
Thats true
"When AI Demand Dries Up" ??? ... that's a REALLY STUPID Assumption, based on total ignorance of AI. Such comments remind me of the Internet back in the 80's, when most people could not envision computers shifting from "computing" to being connected communication devices engaged in Trillions of dollars of commerce.
You're right. AI chip demand will continue until infinity. We're all much wiser because of the time and thought you put into this insightful comment.
Maybe AI chip demand goes up but more companies will produce.
the internet and AI are two very different things.
As a Treckie i would say if our civilisation looked like the borg....
Hahaha can't stop laughing In your dreams maybe What a lost of time Some people just don't get it Get a life man
This is the sort of quality banter that makes it all worthwhile. We do "lost" a lot of time making these videos and yes, some of our MBAs don't have a life. Fair comment.