The Hidden Force That Secretly Controls Your Life - Brian Klaas
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ค. 2024
- Brian Klaas is a political scientist, a professor at University College London and an author.
Small, seemingly insignificant events can have profound effects on the world. But how much of our fate is truly determined by chance, and if chaos plays such a huge role, how much control do we actually have over anything?
Expect to learn the chance story of the atomic bomb's targeting, the difference between contingency and convergence, why our brains are so good at distorting reality, the link between Donald Trump's election and the dinosaurs, how a cigar changed the course of the American Revolution, why floorboards in New England are 23 inches wide and much more...
-
00:00 How Chance Dictated Hiroshima & 9/11
05:48 Does Anything Happen for a Reason?
16:33 The Illusion of Control in Modern Society
20:27 Small Things Causing Significant Events
24:24 Would Brian Kill Baby Hitler?
32:07 Our Brains Distort Reality
40:41 How a Cow Could Start World War 3
51:32 Interpreting Political Polls & Predictions
1:01:08 The Link Between Trees & US Independence
1:08:06 How to Live When Everything You Do Matters
1:18:46 Is Brian’s Mentality Shift a Positive One?
1:29:14 Where to Find Brian
-
Get access to every episode 10 hours before TH-cam by subscribing for free on Spotify - spoti.fi/2LSimPn or Apple Podcasts - apple.co/2MNqIgw
Get my free Reading List of 100 life-changing books here - chriswillx.com/books/
Try my productivity energy drink Neutonic here - neutonic.com/modernwisdom
-
Get in touch in the comments below or head to...
Instagram: / chriswillx
Twitter: / chriswillx
Email: chriswillx.com/contact/
Hello you savages. Get access to every episode 10 hours before TH-cam by subscribing for free on Spotify - spoti.fi/2LSimPn or Apple Podcasts - apple.co/2MNqIgw Here's the timestamps:
00:00 How Chance Dictated Hiroshima & 9/11
05:48 Does Anything Happen for a Reason?
16:33 The Illusion of Control in Modern Society
20:27 Small Things Causing Significant Events
24:24 Would Brian Kill Baby Hitler?
32:07 Our Brains Distort Reality
40:41 How a Cow Could Start World War 3
51:32 Interpreting Political Polls & Predictions
1:01:08 The Link Between Trees & US Independence
1:08:06 How to Live When Everything You Do Matters
1:18:46 Is Brian’s Mentality Shift a Positive One?
1:29:14 Where to Find Brian
Guest suggestions: Scott Page and Dave Snowden
Bill Gates gave a TED Talk in 2014 making the rational, evidence-based case for preparing for a pandemic. Worth seeing :-)
38:35 Double Pendulum
[Commenting after Biden withdraws] 53:20 "We can predict that California is going to vote for Biden," kind of makes his point for him :-)
55:00 The latest vlogbrothers says exactly this. It's Hank talking for 7' (in the context of the attempted assassination of Trump) about how "I don't know," is often the right answer, and we really should acknowledge that.
Hank's conclusion “If you want to have an allegiance to truth, you have to trade in the comfort of constant certainty.”
A few people in the comments mention this quote from Voltaire: “Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position. But certainty is an absurd one.”
I actually enjoyed this interview… plus not one single interruption with a commercial! Thanks Chris …. Was able to do all my landscaping and mow the lawn listening
That's so funny I'm doing a landscaping job in a few minutes and am downloading this for it 😂
Another problem with polls, is that many people will vote according to how other people are going to vote. Publish a poll and you will alter how people will vote.
That's what they did in 2016. All the poll places oversampled democrats on purpose so that it looked like Hilary would win because they knew people would vote for her because of that. One polling place said Trump and didn't oversample and called it very close.
People still allow themselves to be the product of others, instead of walking their own paths
Polls are manipulated and people aren't always honest when polled.
When you see a margin of error is 3, think 7
@@jamesdonop445 Yeah, it's 6'4"+
I can’t explain it, but sometimes I have random psychic moments. For example, I once had a dream that I found $20 on a specific spot on a specific street. The next day I found $20 in that same spot.
When I was 20, I was hitch hiking and an older woman picked me up. A thought immediately flashed into my brain that said ‘you can sleep with her if you want, but you shouldn’t’.
We had a daughter together, but she was the worst woman I’ve been with in my life. It also of course completely changed my life’s trajectory, and a part of me grieves for the my other children that were never born and the right woman I didn’t meet.
Of course there’s no guarantee that I would’ve met the right woman and had kids and a loving family had I not slept with that woman, but I genuinely feel that I would’ve.
I’m also grateful to have a daughter who is a good person, but there’s also this weird grief and guilt that I did not listen to my intuition.
That said, when you reflect on the effects of that decision.. your child, your current life, how you see the world, how you’ve grown and changed and what you’ve learned about yourself through that traumatic experience. Knowing that, if you could go back in time would you decide differently and give up the outcomes of that decision?
For me at least, when I reflect on all the stupid choices I’ve made throughout my life, bizarrely I still wouldn’t change them, which alleviates regret/grief/frustration and all those unhelpful emotions.
It’s also amazing that you were even able to recognize your intuition. So many people are so stuck in their head, they wouldn’t even be able to notice it
"This thrust, the next thrust. The guy on the podcast told me this would change the world..."
😂😂😂
Comic gold.
As if there wasn't enough performance anxiety.
I’ve always rejected the phrase ‘everything happens for a reason’.
Everything happens because of a reason.
Quantum mechanics enters the chat
My great grandmother immigrated to America from Hungary to escape growing conflict in Europe. When she had the option of tickets to come between 2 ships, she chose the one that made my existence possible.
The Carpathia.
Because it stopped on the way to rescue survivors of the ship she DIDN'T choose.
The Titanic.
She was the poorest class of traveler and almost certainly would have died below deck when the ship sunk.
So one random choice continued on a string of events that led to my existence.
However, if she had chosen differently, i'm also quite certain someone else would still have lived in my house. And done the jobs i was hired to do. And fullfilled all of the roles I've played in my life. The vacuum of my existence would have been filled by the movement of an alternate reality.
So in the cosmic scale my existence IS meaningless. The world and life would continue with or without me.
Now. That said, i have had 3 seperate people in my life confess to me well after the fact that they had fully intended to commit suicide and had a plan about to go into motion before i met them and disrupted their despair. Usually just through some random conversation or happenstance of place and time...
I have helped random strangers. Intervened in street assaults. And been emotional support to countless people in crisis. I also TRULY believe i may have accidentally prevented a mass shooting at a hospital by taking the time to talk to a man who set off ALL of my mental alarms and red flags for impending violence.
So... my life has absolutely made a measurable difference in the world.
I don't know if that gives it "meaning" though.
I have contemplated this a LOT. And i sort of feel like in the giant sandbox of reality we all determine which games we play on our own, assign value and meaning subjectively to the things we choose, and our actions absolutely shape the sort of domino effect pattern of MANY events in the world around us.
But also, life is just sort of going to DO what life does and whatever happens, happens.
For the serendipity of my very existence, i choose to be the best version of myself that i can be so that i can do as much good aa possible in the world around me, wherever i am.
That's my meaning.
This was soooo good! The last 20 minutes were exactly the balance I've struggled with. As someone with anxiety, I loved everything he had to say. Certainly, it was nothing new to this overthinker, but most importantly, it was clarifying for the overwhelm that has made it difficult to navigate. Thanks for that Brian!
Last night, laying awake, I literally started to mentally work out how to lay out a spreadsheet of requirements/quantity/cost for a years worth of supplies necessary for optimal care routine (dental, skin, hair) 😅. Can't promise I won't do it, but perhaps now is not the best time & I'm just using optimization/control to procrastinate doing higher leverage tasks that will bring about the change I desire & simultaneously fear.
The broader terms missing from the conversation that I'm guessing are crucial to his social model: inertia, continuum, momentum, & scope of influence.
I won't make parallels to compost & soil biology or gut microbiome to brain chemistry, but I think they could be highly relevant models to the social one here in relation to chaos theory, time, & environment.
✌️💚 Modern Wisdom team
Simple calculus shows that something optimized is more resilient against small disturbances than something not quite optimized. What you mean is that one should not give up resilience to optimize for the expected future.
The closing remarks reminded me of a saying I first heard from Jerry Seinfeld: keep your head down in success, keep your chin up in failure.
No meaning, No control, no free will, no guilt, no shame,no fault, no responsibility. Yes consequences. Go now, be free!
The author kind of assumes that a single past event is the cause of this present moment when it is millions of single events, and if any of those millions of events didn’t occur this present moment would be altered or bot exist at all. Feels a little overdramatic to state it the way he does. But I guess it makes a better story.
Right! Well said!
As a specific example: I am 11 minutes into the interview and he just got done talking about how his grandfather’s first wife killed the kids and killed herself and that led to him being alive. There is some amount of “can’t prove nonexistence“ in this.
In other words, it’s a logical fallacy - False causality. “Correlation does not imply causation.“
This guy is a very interesting individual that I did not know before today.
Thanks for introducing me.
As for my feelings? I believe in fate.
Still, this man's argument is one of the better ones I've heard against predestiny.
Convergence reminded me of the TV show Dark Matter, which is my favorite sci-fi show from recent years. Must watch for anyone who enjoyed this podcast.
Fantastic!! Bryan Klass perspective on choas theory is fascinating . Good Show 👍 Chris Williamson
30:00:00 in the movie The Matrix where Morpheus says "everything happened the way it was supposed to" and
Trinity says "how do you know?" Morpheus says "because we are still alive"
Is a great example of this concept
Phénoménal podcast that opens a shit of perspective! Thank you both ❤
Life's a gift, a break from the highly structured physical order of the universe, to where we will all return.
Fascinating episode. Well done in all respects. Thank you to Chris for bringing this and to Mr. Class for his insights.
Good timing. I just read the book The drunkard's walk about how randomness influences our Life and our decisions. It is crazy once one thinks about It. Cheers from Spain❤
The idea that watching this podcast will change the trajectory of the universe is so bizarre.
This way of thinking is very freeing. When you realize the outcomes are out of your control, it takes the anxiety and pressure you put on yourself off. We can influence… enjoy the process, let go of the outcome.
Fantastic episode! Mind blown 🙂
It's funny how people can view the same thing so differently. You were telling the story about Japan and 9/11, and I thought to myself how much everything is under providence to the slightest detail and circumstance, while the same facts made you conclude the exact opposite...
The X-Files episode "Clyde Bruckman's Final Repose" kinda gets into this. The series of random events that lead to life-changing moments.
This guy has an interesting perspective
more like persuading other to not dive deeper into historical conspiracies that are still ongoing.
@@tuckerbugeatersounds like your biases made you miss the main takeaways.
1:10:38 The most mind-blowing context in which to apply this idea imo, is in population genetics. Chris you should have on Ed Dutton, basically the controversial 'Charles Murray of behavioral genetics'.
The group survival strategy with least 'noise in the system' is exemplified by Japan, sort of the 'conscientiousness and relatedness' strategy, it works rly well except becomes fragile, with decreased birthrates the ethnicity is in danger of disappearing.
The Western survival strategy is more like the 'crazy genius' strategy, ppl like the Victorians historically, were a large enough population high enough in conscientiousness to maintain structure in society, but there was still enough genetic variability so that neurotic autistic geniuses were likely to be born in significant numbers, and more/less socially tolerated.
They might be lunatics and criminals, but they might also invent steam engines and gadgets etc.
There are other 'strategies' (facilitated historically by regional environmental conditions,) but usually in others 'noise' starts cancelling out 'signal,' in a sense.
We prescribe meaning and purpose to everything as a coping mechanism for life. Same with beliefs we hold and the things we “know”.
Very interesting and important ideas in a great presentation: this is perfect! :D thanks
I've been watching since right around episode 100, and this is one of the best I have seen. Fascinating guest, and great interviewing. 🙂
This episode has been truly enlightening
Fun and interesting. The Pine trees story was novel, but it is situated in the greater context of a waning colonial power's over-reach on its subject's scarce commodities. The details may matter, but not as much as the general direction.
The special order 191 story was actually used by Harry Turtledove as the point of divergence for his "How Few Remain" and the sequel Confederate victory novel series. Fun read!
Excellent! Loved it!
31:15 Inevitability ❤
LOTM COI.
45:45 Individual systems individual.
1:10:00 The optimization - resilience tradeoff. Also not rising the ranked hierarchy of bronze by being stuck in patterns of playing that are not working.
1:17:00 teach
Amazing interview. Will buy his book!
Wow! Lots of interesting stuff.
love chaos theory (thanks Jeff Goldblum) and control is the ultimate illusion. great conversation thanks!
My contention would be, this misunderstanding of interconnectivity and all phenomena being inexplicably entangled, is rooted in our failure to properly conceptualize the experience of time itself within existing modalities for spoken language. The revolution may be one of reframing the way we speak and refer, specifically to our understanding of our experience of the 'passage' of time and how we communicate it to ourselves and eachother. The reframing of the 'time' concept, more carefully presented by languge, stands as the barrier to entry to the next paradigm shift.
A very interesting interview!
Most right place at the right time events result in opportunities are minuscule however oft spawn larger consequences .
I would wonder how magical thinking could get tangled up within this theory? For some people the cause and effect process is intertwined with religious belief. When I was younger due to my upbringing I thought that things that I did bad would cause another thing to happen to me.
That only stopped when I chose to see religion for what it is. And then change my belief system.
All we know is that we don't know
Great interview. Thank you.
1:02:48
My man makes a fundamental mistake there: the fact that the forests of New England had tall trees is, in itself, irrelevant. It's the fact that human beings chose to assign value to tall trees that makes all the difference. If nobody saw any value in tall trees, it would have made absolutely no difference. History is driven by choices, and choices are driven by desire and ignorance.
Hello Chris: I am absolutely horrified to hear about Kyoto being targeted. Kyoto is one of my favourite places on earth. The temple gardens are a gift which the Japanese people have given to world culture. Keep up the good work.
So you like being horrified?
My man has just independently rediscovered Karma. How cool is that?
Freaking awesome conversation and very thought provoking in a fun way!!
Thanks guys
Chris needs to have Dave Snowden on
wtf is that guy?
Can you please provide hindi subtitles also ,for these videos it would be helpful sir
Imagine if retro-causality, free will, and chaos theory are all real factors?
No one predicted the crash or pandemic except for the people causing them.
I don’t know tbh, a lot of analogies are very interesting indeed but it seems like he is only considering a combination of events. Emotions and feelings that people feel are not taken into an account. A lot of things can happen to an individual but a person may react or not based on what they feel in that moment.
22:10 , this is also known as tolerance creep in engineering
All this causality can really hurt your brain.....
meaning is something we create. a confluence of events that leads to a perceived positive outcome is always considered faith-affirming.
but tragedy is also often the product of a confluence of events. Therefore these events are not meaningful or intentional by God, but opportunities for us to learn the impact of our actions no matter how small and how we might generate desirable outcomes more often through optimizing our behavior in even the smallest ways, AND to accept tragedy when it happens.
the belief in God is simply the belief that no amount of random occurrence and tragedy can defeat the power of the human will when it is aimed at the greatest good. the "plan" or destiny that is a our future - a net positive result for humanity - can never be disrupted so long as enough of us are working towards it.
You might not have control but you still have responsibility.
The ‘Ort Cloud’ is theoretical and has never been observed. It’s so funny to me that some of these things are spoken about as fact. It would be helpful if people were honest and mention these are theories, but not the only option.
Still love this show and appreciate the information.
Oort Cloud 👍
You say that as if it's a fact you exist.. but it's not
It would be helpful if people questioned the official (aka bullsh*t) 9/11 narrative.
He literally said that was the best guess in the interview. Not that it was a fact and it was undisputed. Next time double check when you write a comment
@@Hemlocker if I missed that, which it appears I did, I apologize. Thank you for the correction. It was never my intention to misrepresent either of the two gentlemen.
Thanks again for the correction and response
Covergence is why things in nature keep becoming dolphin, crab, sloth, or horse shaped. 😂
Because its the most efficient form to live the way those things do.
26:06 that would actually be the better outcome. We're currently living in the worse outcome.
Isn't this then the same as the" what if" of regret.
Jeff Goldblum Jurassic Park anyone?
The point of failure built into pursuit and working with highly optimized systems....
BMW and HONDA built very good cars. But from different perspectives.
BMW is fantastic and reliable if as it was built. You stick to and do all the maintenance and replacement at said miles.
Where as HONDA. Built cars from the perspective.
People will miss oil changes. And not feel inclined/wont want to replace parts before they break or due to wear out
Did anyone else pick up the line about ..." achieving failure"...hmmm
53:30 Yeah dude, but how you measure this depends entirely on what info you have available, and what variables you plug into the equation. (And, how those are differently weighted).
For example, it's VERY unlikely that Independents will favor Trump, and these voters are known to almost never answer polls. And they swing elections.
Having a formula/calculation without necessary info, or variable inputs, is like having a rly nice car without gasoline or something.
(This is why, whenever Turchin says anything, I'm like: "very intelligent and interesting, but I'm keenly aware you're not a historian").
Well stated! This dude.. 🙄
Well said.
“The Holiest sites of Islam” are in Saudi Arabia. There were Jewish temples where the Al Aqsa was built
Random, spontaneous, or the like, literally cannot exist, but are used anyhow, because it's easier than saying "I don't know the cause". Random and spontaneous both assert an absence of causality. That's impossible. Random and spontaneous cannot exist, because nothing can happen without cause. Those words are used IN PLACE OF acknowledging ignorance to the cause, even going so far as to excuse their ignorance by insinuating/claiming directly that the cause CANNOT BE known, period... those words spare an ego the admission that it doesn't know something. EVERYTHING that happens has a cause; everything that happens IS an effect, whether we know the causes, or whether those causes are even knowable (given XYZ conditions, the mind attempting to know it, etc). Random, spontaneous, or the like, literally cannot exist, but are used anyhow, because it's easier than saying "I don't know the cause"
Good luck or bad luck? Impossible to ever know.
This type of shit is my Roman Empire only every single day
Did you guys take some Gummies before this????? NO? You should, this could really get into some hilarious rabbit holes.
Look at the void in front of your eyes...what can you do to produce it or eliminate it...nisargadatta (butchered)
Brian's criticism of Nate Silver is shallow, and he evidently doesn't know the lengths Silver has gone to in educating his audience about the limits of his and other such statistical models.
Klaas speaks as someone whose understanding of probability and statistics is very basic, which isn't a bad thing at all and is more understanding than the average Joe, but he's running up against the limits of his own abilities with such criticisms. Good talk, but he should probably attenuate his position with more humility when it comes to complex mathematics.
I think the majority of people whether family, friends, people who debate, the 'Profesionals', educators, leaders ect... ALL need to learn accountability and humility.
Facts are Facts, truth is truth. People who argue an undeniable truth is just a narcissist that will not be able to know what accountability is. But mostly everyone else is debating topics that in the end we actually don't know the full truth or having the forethought to understand the difference between stating what you think you know now might change completely in the future.
We have an entire culture that argue and headbutt over basically better opinions of the actual little information available OR things philosophical that is a personal belief not something to try and show another that disagrees, that they are wrong. But we do and I don't understand why so many people do not look in the mirror and tell themselves to stop being the problem and adding to this insane ego inflated bullshit way we all treat each other and be humble.
@@commonsensepills584 that's why you will be tested on basic material needs. It's true everybody needs them but how do they get them in a shortage! LOL
Algo.
Good day Mr Chris, my name is Ntokozo 17 years old. I am new to your channel. I am currently dealing with a lack of discipline and very addicted to bad habits. May you please suggest the podcaststhat I should first watch here on your channel to solve the problem I am dealing with. Thanks for your time 🙏
You might benefit from Andrew Huberman and Jocko Willink also.
@@perfectifmelancholy thanks bro
34:30 Eric Weinstein brought this up in the podcast with Terrence Howard.
That (extremely painful to listen to) podcast, nevertheless had important snippets. Eric brought up the ideas of sacred geometry and the seduction of mathematic pattern recognition in Islam and other religions as a literal drug that can mislead people into incorrect paths, all with the approval of their natural psychology.
and you were likewise misled by that statement
@@wendyg8536 I doubt you even know what I'm saying, much less what your response is supposed to mean.
I love the new name for God. Hadn’t heard that one before. 🤣
I'm an ass for saying this, but watching him is hard. Like I can't explain it but it makes me nervous AF. He moves his head so fast it looks like it's edited or a weird glitch or something.
Mr nobody movie brought me here 😂
His ways are not our ways.
You know, this podcast might be good, but why the blatant Product placement?
If the conversation is good, the guest is engaging and In the end I want to know more. I’ll find your book
Crazy thing, we will have the inflation from that fucking stuck boat FOREVER!
I'm sure it's going to be an amazing episode but I'm on a road trip so I don't have time to listen at the moment! Thank you for all that you do sir you make some absolutely phenomenal content
❤️💖🙏❤️💖
I think the guy knows there is no free will, no purpose for anything and everything is predetermined from the start, what ever that is.
But normies can't handle this obvious truth so he sugarcoats it, saying the illusion of free will we all have is not an illusion
“The mass murder of children is why I exist,” is a ludicrous assertion. Klaas conveniently ignores the10 trillion events that could have occurred had his great granddad’s first wife had not committed murder/suicide to realign a trajectory where he is born anyway. Maybe the woman and children die in a fire two years later. Maybe she’s unfaithful and his granddad divorces. Maybe his grandad is unfaithful and he’s born anyway. To narrow his existence to a singular event and ignore all the other potential events is quite convenient to his story, but is rather ridiculous. The only part of his discussion that’s rational is that there is a mix between outcomes within your control and outcomes beyond your control. It isn’t an either or choice. And there is no argument that can prove or disprove that there events are guided by some form of divine or unseen force.
Thank you
Atheism in essence?
Bingo. Thinly weilded behind "science".
This guy should debate Jonathan Pageau or his brother Mathieu Pageau on symbolism and meaning. Then I want to see chaos theory intertwine with Iain McGilchrist
so metaphysics truth vs it's just a fluke bro?
@@tuckerbugeater I used to think it was all random too, but part of thinking critically is being skeptical of one's beliefs. Ideas reproduce with themselves, and from that reproduction, something new emerges. I feel this speaker is fully enclosed in the belief that life is all random-he seems no longer open to the idea that reality is fundamentally structured like a story. Within this story matrix, there's an invaluable ingredient: 'mystery.'
Everything has purpose and meaning, none of what happens is random
Teorii chaosu moc dobře znám a je jedna z mých oblíbených… hlavně me to neučte…
It may be a fluke but it's no fluke that Victims are useful.
Saying something is scientifically true is not the same as actual science. If you don't have data and repeatable experimentation it's a belief.
Smart guy with his head in a sand pile
If it's significantly anxiety-inducing, then you know it's definitely true.
Is the Butterfly Effect real or not? Debate.
You call anyone who thinks that their lives are effecting the universe a psycipath.
“...Your Scientists Were So Preoccupied With Whether Or Not They Could, They Didn’t Stop To Think If They Should.”
Is it just me or is Brian's version of Chaos Theory sort of just a non-theory? It's kind of just saying that time is real. Events happen and they cause multiplying effects over linear time, sometimes even disproportionately negative.
Look at what all of humanity has done in spite of that. We've inherited a millennia of knowledge and wisdom from our ancestors and observing the natural world - science, data, literature, stories, culture, myths, religion - all teaching us how to best navigate our timeline, predict and optimize for good, meaningful results. Use it.
A political analyst that says he can't say for certain who will win the election. Yeah no shit. Nobody knows anything. The more interesting conversations start to happen when we set out to make good things happen in spite of the uncertainty.
Ah yes, pattern recognition.....
Things appear random when one discounts the causative factor, which is always the state of Consciousness of the the agent. All events are Source Energy filtered through the state of Consciousness of the agent (you, me, all "objects"). With regard to a human being...it's not that it's random OR predetermined, it's that when the state of Consciousness is fixed (as it is almost always)... Source is also "fixed" and the future of the being is thus, fixed. The only variable in any equation is the state of Consciousness through which Source (the Creative Force) is limited/funneled. The future is fixed until Consciousness is expanded, then, a new future emerges. To shift the "outside" one must expand the "inside" (allow more Source to manifest through). Cause and effect are fixed but through the expansion of Consciousness, which is available and empowered in all of us. This is because Source IS our primary nature and mind (our false self) the limited filter that restricts it creating the EXACT effect that reflects the state of Consciousness that created it. This explains the appearance of randomness, the appearance of predetermination and the appearance of synchronicities/miracles.
take some downers bro
Great Work!
Resonates with my Rational Ramblings...Reasonably...