You instead need people capable of being more honest with themselves and compassionate about people that think different... not biased people pretending that a complex explanation is needed to why the world does not work as they would like.
@@thomasjpuleo8112 😃absolutely... These people continue ignoring the geopolitical FACTS that America's communistic/totalitarian State Department (Clinton, Nuland, etc) are f**ing around with peoples lives ALL OVER THE WORLD - Hello Ukraine... Don't know how you will ever get through to the people that follow the Democrats as the morons who actually ARE ruining our country and sense. Then the nerve to pretend looking down at MAGA and the strengths of America and American culture, when the most stupid people in our country's history, Democrats (and don't underestimate them and their Hebrew immigration crimes taking place). They don't have the first clue and continue damaging the USA and... the world.
I agree whole-heartedly with the idea that we don't have enough slack in our day to day support systems that leaves us vulnerable to fluke events. My career was as a logistician and in my time, we moved from "just in case" inventory and support to "just in time" lean logistics. That makes for very cost-efficient systems, but the high level of optimization also makes them vulnerable to rapid failures when the unexpected occurs. Now we have just lived through supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic, a low likelihood, but high impact event. Others lurk out there if we don't build "shock absorbers" into the many critical systems we rely upon for day to day living.
The place where people fail with JIT is not having robust predictive algorithms to keep that just in time supply flow at the appropriate levels at all times even during peaks and valleys in demand. You can't have a fully integrated just in time soupy chain because demand ebbs and flows so you need to have the slack to upramp or downramp production, or distribute more or fewer at any given moment. I believe that years ago Amazon experimented with having the most commonly ordered products constantly in motion toward the "last mile" facility even before the items were ordered so that an item ordered at 3 pm today could be delivered by noon tomorrow. At a post office they might receive five boxes of copy paper on Monday because on Mondays at least five boxes get ordered, so the moment someone orders one on monday, they are already unloading a case of five boxes of copy paper. I think they built a more robust delivery network in the meantime, but in the early days they relied heavily on jit to accomplish next day delivery.
Relative to the broader implications of the topic at hand, I think of my daughter working at a grocery store for the first time. All her coworkers, both young and older, are dispirited and dejected, feeling trapped by their own lack of opportunities in a soulless job that pays very little. They are berated to hurry, hurry, hurry to get the shelves stocked as quickly as possible and then all come in early (5 am) to do inventory once a month; there are companies you pay to do inventory, but the store owners are too cheap to pay for such. Then the flu or COVID gets passed around and the remaining employees are berated to complete what is needed with only half the workers. There's no shock absorbers at all in the already stressed day to day operations; to ask more is impossible. Our country is that grocery store. Employees quit, move on, or deal with their lost souls with alcohol, drugs, pent up anger, hatred, even suicide, etc. The pot eventually boils over either by unionizing, if they can make that happen, or by killing the business. There's no need for extreme efficiencies to make the very few rich. Government needs to regulate the economy more aggressively, but the rich bribe government people to maintain the status quo and we, the people are powerless.
Very true - I also think that our world - is constructed in such a way that efficiency is always valued the highest and I think there are instances where that is not always the case.
Excellent presentation, such good questions and insightful answers, I think the guest speaker is brilliant. Yes to "pattern seeking machines" I really enjoyed this, thank you PBS and Amanpour.
The scathing joke at the WHCD was by Seth Meyers, not Obama. The joke was, "Donald Trump has been saying he would run as a Republican, which is surprising, because I assumed he was running as a joke."
That's true, but Obama also mocked him as a "carnival barker." Don't forget that he was already pushing the birther conspiracy, and Obama was eager to delegitimize that.
@@rickknight1810 Yes, if memory serves, that WHCD was a day or two after Obama had released the "Long Form" of his Hawaii Birth Certificate. He literally had to send an Aide to Hawaii to get the thing and bring it to DC, where everyone, including "the Donald", could see that Obama was "Born in the USA"! And Obama said, now that the Birther Issue is no more, "Trump can focus on the 'real important things', like "Who Faked the Moon Landing?" and "Who killed Biggie Smalls?"
What a brilliant mind. Whether he's correct or not, he moves from one innovative idea to the next without skipping a beat. Leaves us with so much to keep reflecting upon after 18 minutes.
It is a trail of inductive reasoning explored and researched in good faith. Being correct or not doesn't really enter into it. It is a possible model and therefore useful as a tool. A heuristic.
Finally someone has hit the nail on the head: Any idiot that can use a mobile phone can be a journalist, editor, and publisher all-in-one without any capacity to be any of them.
Citizen journalism sounded good in theory. It doesn't account for the vast numbers of people who view everything as an opportunity to exploit. Naomi Klein really understand this "shock doctrine" approach.
I wrote several PHP modules for WordPress that use chat gpt to act as editors, writers and and researchers to build files that become articles. I input a word or phrase and the end result is a factual article published on a website. Honestly, I believe these scripts do a better job of writing articles than most people. If you read any of them you would probably not realize they were totally computer generated.
When the majority of "conspiracy theories" true out to be true then they aren't conspiracy theories. This is why elites called people conspiracy theorists when they try to push back against media's lies.
In college I read all of Herman Wouk. The Winds of War about war in the Pacific was amazing. A lot of it was a fluke after grand planning. Not what intended but somehow we survived. I'm 74 now and this is still with me. Needing or believing in control has consequences. We now know DNA is fluid. How we live matters.
I am not sure if Dr. Klass realizes that what he discovered is a well established principle of sociology, that the more complex and technically advanced a society is the more susceptible it is to being disrupted.
Your hatred of mans focused mind is noted. Pre-science, man was just barely surviving, dying in his early 20s and facing near-starvation on a daily basis. Primitive cultures provided only a life close to death. Little to disrupt. Modern philosophy is the primitive mentality w/a PhD. Klaas is extremely smart about rationalizing his stupidity. See Kant for more.
No slack; highly optimized; finely tuned to control an unstable situation; tall sand pile: these clearly describe many commercial and government enterprises today. Inequality and oppression is a source of "free energy" (borrowing a term from thermodynamics). If any one thinks that inequality can be sustained by secret police, barriers, walls, surveillance cameras, torture, etc. (China, Israel, East Germany) are in for a rude awakening at some point. Other situations are high debt, highly leveraged companies, and optimizing efficiency with little slack for safety (Boeing).
Good point except there is only east Germany as geographically distinct from west Germany, but they are still one country. It is the most conservative east Germany that poses a risk of instability in politics in the future and that may be imminent as Germany is in serious financial decline unlike anything they have seen for some time. This further threatened to destabilize the EU as the Euro has now dropped to equal the US dollar.
Your skill in advocating Marxism or New Leftism w/o identifying it marks you a graduate of corrupt schools. 200M dead. How many more before you become conseervative? And man is not a machine. You evade free will. And the alternative to Left and Righht is individual rights. See : Ayn Rand
Excellent part at 8 min on the persistence/appeal of conspiracy theories (our brain's predilection to search for patterns/stitch together narratives out of random events). Also how social media algorithms amplify conspiracy theories.
Brilliant. The only thing I disagree with is at the very end when he says, “we need to have a little less hubris.” In fact we need to have a lot less hubris, not a little.
I love chaos theory. Tipping points, phase shifts, butterfly effects, chaos, flow, thresholds. To paraphrase the author, "Noise was never irrelevant." Cross discipline understanding, for example, chaos theory, mathematical theory and the social sciences, is a necessity for our understanding and our adaptation. Newtonian determinism never fully fit the bill. "Humans are pattern detection machines.". Brilliantly simple explanation with which I couldn't agree more. Sometimes our pattern recognition is false which creates behavioral and societal problems, cognitive dissonance and logical fallacies, prejudiced if you will, but that's a whole other discussion. Certainly our pattern recognition systems can easily create chaos all by itself. Please note: This is also an explanation of why democracy is so important. Can democracies be wrong? Well, yes. But one factor that democracy introduces into political systems is a monitoring of the effect of government on people and their lives. People, like organisms and ecosystems, the same for governments, must adapt. A lack of adaptation is stagnation. Stagnation cannot adapt to change which inevitably leads to systemic or ecological collapse, extinction, incrementally induced chaos, if you will. All legislation must be continuously monitored and changed to adapt. This concept was explored by Michael Crichton in his explanation on why climate science regulations needed to be constantly monitored to see the extraneous effects caused by the legislation. Democracies are, by nature, legislation monitoring systems. The forces preventing healthy adaptation are also potent factors in creating systemic stress and potential chaotic collapse. Another brilliant insight by the speaker in the video, to paraphrase,"the past cannot necessarily present a solution for the present and the future; AI can only fully evaluate closed systems." This isn't to say that the past can never offer solutions, only that solutions must be based on the stress or relief of stress these solutions introduce into the system.
Like that train wreck a couple years ago….the company was down to 2 employees per train with trains running all day everyday, so the one fluke was catastrophic. This is brilliant
This is brilliant. So many political events can be based on chaos theory and I think the Fluke analysis can be applied to the modern motivational obsession: - 'life is how you make it' 'if you work hard you'll be successful, rich, etc' - when much of life is down to sheer luck and chance. To quote John Lennon: “Life is what happens to you while you’re making other plans."
What a fascinating discussion with a very good guest! He makes so much sense of describing the rise and spread of conspiracy theories. I live in the Midwest, and people here accept those absurd theories because they have been searching for decades for the cause of so many industries moving out of our part of the country, leaving millions in financial distress. Even I have wondered why no political figure realized the hornet's nest that was being built here simply because of that. Hopeless people always seek answers, but they often don't get the correct ones. Too often, they become vulnerable to false notions, some of which will actually harm them. In the case of the "Rust Belt", no one seemed to care about the millions of people being left behind. THAT was the danger - and the shame of our government - which permitted MAGA and Trump to appear and take hold, even of their minds.
It was known - you might not have been aware of it. If you were around or can recall the 1992 presidential election - that Bill Clinton defeated George HW Bush. there was a 3rd Party candidate that was a populist hero - Ross Perot - he was the grandfather of the Trump candidacy in a way - except he was much more about practical solutions. One of the major concerns of that election was - Trade - specifically - NAFTA - North American Free Trade Agreement. It was initiated by the Bush Administration, implemented by the Clinton administration - the result was removal of tariffs from the respective countries - encouraging wider scale trade. Ross Perot said during the debates that if NAFTA were to be implemented - "all you will hear is a giant sucking sound" what he meant was the evaporation of the manufacturing sector jobs from the United States. That is of course exactly what happened. The so called "rust belt" was classic middle America where those manufacturing skilled and unskilled jobs had been the norm for several generations - are what created the conditions for Americans to turn to someone like Trump for President. It did not help that his opponent was the wife of the president at the time when NAFTA was instituted. Again people falsely blame Clinton administration for creating NAFTA - they didn't but they did not stop it either - and when that happened - the democratic party lost its connection to "working people " that really they have never recovered from.
Trump was determined to enter public life. His business schemes were all coming apart and, as a professional hustler, he was looking for a new area to exploit vulnerable people. His “birther” rumors had found fertile ground and he could see opportunities for expansion. And I think he had encouragement from some foreign sources also.
That is one way to look at it. - You cannot discount the effect a black president had on a wide swath of people. Remember he had been trying to run for president since the late 80s - but no one ever took him seriously. I think a black president so rattled enough people it gave him the start of enough people to listen. I remember when CNN kept featuring his rallies in 2015 that there was trouble ahead - and I will never forget his face - an expression when he realized how he had them - and that politics was going to be the ultimate hustle - it was that - OMG I should have done this years ago - the grifting is waaaaay too good. It still is hard to believe how deeply he has some of these people - they are waaaaaay beyond reason
There are similarities here to Gunderson and Holling’s Panarchy Theory. A hierarchical model seeking to explain how complex systems adapt at various spatiotemporal scales. The model consists of four “phases” where the system acts in a distinct way to either structure, collapse, or reorganize itself.
Excellent book. I've long been fascinated how chance or luck is so big a part of life and yet we call it fate or destiny. Paul Auster, who recently passed away, was always attuned to how randomness and luck affect us all every day in his wonderfully strange novels.
I just purchased the audiobook. I look forward to reading this. I have been attributing the chaos today to the developing dynamics of modern communication technology. Yes, we are “ pattern detection machines”.
Yep. Smartphones, the widespread adoption of social media and recommendation algorithms have turned our world into a modern tower of Babel where everyone is producing content to be consumed for dopamine huts
Great show. I wish the problem that the US tendency to be more religious and rely on non-evidentiary reasoning (e.g., faith) is also a contribution to the proliferation of conspiracy theories.
There is a lot of merit to what you are saying - remember the whole idea is trying to satisfy a very important human need to be able to understand the world around us. We have developed models that we believe do a good job at predicting outcomes - and that gives society enough confidence to go out and try their best at life. When those models fail - there are a contingent that like to attribute it to their all- knowing sky daddy. They don't like science or logic - or masks or vaccines - all their faith is in their sky daddy after all he knows better than us after all. The more darker spirited of that crowd - tend to believe it is some dark alien force is enacting some causes that we do not know about - but they do - and they are the real cause
'There is no story'. As a terrible story teller, this is heartening. Though, if someone is good at spinning a yarn, with just enough truth (or fact) in it, the effect can be far reaching, for ill or good.
Correct. But it also requires a mark or a rube. Someone so gullible to believe your tall tail. Trump found a population of gullible ignorant people to believe and spread his yarn.
Chaos theory is a useful way to examine any and all social change, for better or for worse. As far as I know Rianne Eisler was the first to do this in her 1987 book The Chalice And The Blade. Strange attractors and equilibrium disruptions... Suddenly a seemingly insignificant or even unknown attractor becomes a steady attractor by virtue of being in the vicinity at the time of equilibrium disruption. We spend a lot of time talking about History and Progress and Society in ways that don't track with reality when we examine all known factors and allow for unknown factors.
excellent. we need more public broad-audience explanation and application of complexity theory like this. this is what a lot of americans are missing in their knowledge/awareness.
This is an elemental understanding that I think is necessary going forward in this uncertain world. Brian Klaas talks about the need for slack in the world to reduce the possibility of flukes that can be so disruptive. Klaas used the example of how different it might have been if the people had been validated for their concerns about not being heard in relation to a host of issues. Then trump would have had no opportunity to come in with his rhetoric that he heard the complaints about the average person. trump never intended to really follow through with policy to help the mass of people that he really cared, but his stance got him elected because of his constant attacks on the establishment and the rhetoric about concern for the people. . But since trump made everything he did about himself nothing was ever done for the greivances of the middle class. Ultimately, it was a lost opportunity because if trump's actions had reflected his rhetoric he could made huge changes in society. This is a point all politicians could learn from. And it behooves all of to look at this organisations that seem wrapped to tight or functioning within a very tight profit margins that are at risk for random fluke event which can be a godsend to use a metaphor or destroy the organisation. With a little thought many examples of both come to mind in addition what was mentioned in this video.
He feeds on chaos. It gives him energy. He’s a chaos vampire. He likes to cause pain and see people upset. That’s his ego, and he conned people into thinking otherwise cause his greatest power is the ability to lie and make you believe it.
Observing the situation that the US finds itself in, where truth seems arbitrary and news can be manipulated so easily, it’s scary to think how we will respond to a “real” and serious world event in the future…
Please read this, to those who can't understand, to know why 74 million people love trump; It's a combination of other things I've read, written better than I could: I've spoken to a number of folks that are ardent Trump supporters. In chorus they claim he was the greatest President ever. I've asked each one of them which policy of Trump's really resonated with them. I'm still waiting to hear. I have one friend who is now a very easily angered, very potentially violent, Trumper. We have been friends long before he knew who Trump was, and had never been a violent person. I asked him once why he supports trump, he could only answer asking why I didn't. I gave him a long list, but he could only say he believes in trump's policies, however he could not name even one. It's nothing that he actually did it's just how he makes them feel, empowered to be the worst human beings that they can be, and unapologetically so. He makes them feel good about saying and doing mean things and not feeling one bit bad about it. It's because we have to understand that when Trump expresses these childish thoughts and expressions, being as mean-spirted as a skillet full of rattle snakes, Trump is communicating effectively with his base. They say, "look, he's one of us!", and indeed he is. The worse Trump acts? The more names he calls women? (Trump's got a real problem with women); The more Trump praises dictators? The more Trump does all these awful things, puts his own interests over the country's --- the more his MAGA base loves him. I used to think the MAGAs loved Trump despite all these terrible things, but we have to face it as a country: They love Trump BECAUSE of these traits. Trump knows this so he embraces it, and he gets the media to show him in all his evil, glorious, hate. That's why people say it's a cult: These people don't want a decent person representing them. And MOST of them refer to themselves as Christians. That is it in a nutshell. They no longer have to pretend to be decent people. Trump allows them to be proud of being the worst people that they can be, while at the same time claiming to be Christians. For many years, I've found people who just want to be one of the bad guys in a Mad Max post apocalyptic dystopia. As such, they hate civilization and everything about it; they want to be 'bad', because they think that makes them look like tough macho men. They feel utterly miserable, living by rules, laws, regulations and discipline of modern society. They just want it all to burn down and Trump and Qanon and the GOP are giving them everything they want. I have been threatened and told to get ready for a civil war, all because I asked if they thought Trump was a good role model for their children.. He often doesn't even know where he is, who he is talking about, or what any goals he has, are. He sounds like a second grader always wanting to throw mud on the pretty girl in a white dress just because she doesn't like him, and the bullies and wanna be bullies all want to do the same thing, because the people they want, don't want them. They are all, JUST LIKE TRUMP. And they believe that if they can keep him in power, the world will somehow respect their terrible, ludicrous behavior as an appropriate thing, too. They live to hate other people
When he spoke of the poor Tunisian guy who set himself on fire, "igniting" the Arab Spring, I thought of some lines from Longfellows Poem ("The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere"): ". . .and beneath, from the pebbles in passing, a Spark, struck out by a Steed flying fearless and fleet. .. . .and yet, through the Gloom and the Night, The fate of a Nation was riding that Night. And the Spark struck out by that Steed in its flight, kindled the land into flame with its heat.. . . " (if memory serves) Of course, the American Revolution was somewhat more "controlled" than the "Arab Spring". With regard to Brian Klass mentioning how our world is "wired" differently", for Flukes to have a greater effect, there is this from Chapter 12 of the Book of Daniel: Daniel tells the Angel Gabriel : "But Lord, I do not understand these words." Gabriel tells him: "Go your way, Daniel, for the meaning of the words of Prophecy is hidden until the End Times. "Many will travel about and knowledge will increase. . . . "Go now, and rise for your reward at the End of Days". Circa 530 BC/ BCE
I dig Klaas' juxtaposition of the discovery of fire with AI in the implication that it is like fire a discovery with it's black boxed machine learning nursery and not an invention, but the 'great man of history' notes he's hitting seem problematic.
Ilya Prigogine won a Nobel Prize for proving "importation and dissipation of energy into chemical systems could result in the emergence of new structures (hence dissipative structures) due to internal self reorganization." Seems like its that marginal addition of energy that turns a system of randomness into one of structure, turning energy into order.
Maybe I’ve become dull, but this seems more like a book to produce a (lucrative) look. Something brilliant, somehow, gets forgotten quickly and then Kanye West is back in the news making more of an impact than this scholar. I guess that could be explained by chaos theory too - I mean, what isn’t?
Words like "noise" or "random" are labels for things we don't really understand. Even if you are a hard-core Newtonian materialist, things like noise or "random events" are actually completely predictable IF one has all the data. And even a materialist would know that we are severely limited in our ability to not only perceive, but also to comprehend reality. This guy's ideas are just a feel-good story to help us imagine we understand things without actually having much of a clue about what's really going on.
Horseshit, Chaos theory doesn't explain the rise of authoritarians. It is simply exploitation of our evolutionary inclinations to form tribes. When environmental stressors rise, so does tribalism. Religion and authoritarians are simply the most successful tribal organizing forces in human history. Tribes require alternative truths to differentiate and tribal membership has been a life or death choice since before we left the trees. That's all there is to it. Only critical thinking skills taught in K thru 12 would give us any chance to avoid tribal pitfalls and the ability to face global threats.
In chaos (systems) theory, these are mechanics applied at nodes (events in time and place), which in turn create dynamics. So yes, you just described causality in an open system. And I agree, teaching critical thinking in schools in a democracy that educates everyone is an important systems intervention.
Its a tool; "just say you are opening an investigation and leave the rest to me and my congress ppl to do the rest" Gets the Lie out first so Truth has to be defended, the weaker stance. Tell ppl you are for something and then tell them you didnt mean what you said "it was a joke". As a civilian, tell congress how to kill a bill in order for that civilian to use as an attack on the incumbent president. Say outloud " I hope the economy Tanks this year " by the person who thinks he is the Only one who can fix it, Tweets messages of threats and how he is the victim as he names ppl for his followers to attack and threaten........a tool to use as a means
We need a formal measure of how precarious a sand pile has become. The sand pile condition determines what will happen - the fluke determines when or where an event starts. This means our means of predicting the future is in measuring the stability of "sand piles".
Very interesting interview. I have already lived a number of flukes that changed my life dramatically for the better. Hoping to avoid bad ones but I suppose some are inevitable over time.
Heinlien wrote about the existence of the Variant in all proceedings. He didn't use the term "variant", but he was talking about the element of "strangeness" or "randomness" that occurs, uncontrollably, in daily events.
Chaos Theory suggests that the small chance we elect a fascist for president that at least we have the impeachment process. And if we have a insane fascist we have the 25th amendment. But if we have a fascist cabinet and if we have more than 1/3 of the Senators being fascist then we're out of luck because we can't impeach and we can't use the 25th.
Wow, love these interviews! Brian Klass points were exactly how the world feels to me: it’s a hinge-point in history now, if any extraordinary event occurred now, it would not surprise many in tune with geopolitics or socioeconomics, etc. I really thought the sand pile was a good metaphor, and also his statement “there is no ‘slack’ in the system.” An example of a fluke event to me was the laker ship the Edmund Fitzgerald; most people don’t realize it was built to the longest length possible for Great Lakes shipping, which made it even look vulnerable- they still don’t know if it snapped in half or got waterlogged. Again, with its length, it created the sand pile scenario, and the Lake Superior event caused the catastrophe- but there was also ‘no slack’ in the length of the ship which made it more precarious than a shorter vessel.
I love when someone puts order to a feeling that I've had. I always kind of thought that certain key moments were bound to happen, it's just a matter of who falls upon it first. it's not true for everything, like penicillin, but for a lot of things.
Conspiracy theories happen mostly where people lose trust and become a bit paranoid. And there are especially many reasons to lose trust in the US where corporate interests rule so much. Politicians just use the distrust to support their own interests.
trump is an example of using conspiracy theory to both trigger more distrust in government and the perceived opposition which in turn benefits his own self-interest.
@@michaeldeierhoi4096 yes that is true - but you have to realize that he is a little different - in that he is a malignant narcissitic sociopath - he lies like you or I breathe - with people like that - it is inconceivable that everyone else is not lying, cheating also - I am pretty certain he actually believes that. He has a very warped perception of reality and conspiracy theories can be very useful to create doubt and give him an advantage.
@@pjpredhomme7699 I can't argue with what you say and he is a clear example of someone who must be removed from society because of his drive to divide and misinform people which creates a mob-like mentality in people. And many of those most on the fringe of that 'mob' are the ones who are more likely to commit violent acts e.g. The attack on Many Pelosi's husband.
We need more smart, insightful people like this in our public discourse.
In Congress
Anyone can be a senator or even president, unfortunately.
You instead need people capable of being more honest with themselves and compassionate about people that think different... not biased people pretending that a complex explanation is needed to why the world does not work as they would like.
He’s just a good talker, like Buttigieg. He has nothing new to say. Nothing against the guy; talking is a skill, but there is nothing new here.
@@thomasjpuleo8112 😃absolutely... These people continue ignoring the geopolitical FACTS that America's communistic/totalitarian State Department (Clinton, Nuland, etc) are f**ing around with peoples lives ALL OVER THE WORLD - Hello Ukraine... Don't know how you will ever get through to the people that follow the Democrats as the morons who actually ARE ruining our country and sense. Then the nerve to pretend looking down at MAGA and the strengths of America and American culture, when the most stupid people in our country's history, Democrats (and don't underestimate them and their Hebrew immigration crimes taking place). They don't have the first clue and continue damaging the USA and... the world.
Finally!!! Solid journalism. I have been missing Harry Reasoner, and Charlie Rose type interviews
Charlie Rose? I found that the man would never shut up. He kept interjecting while interviewing.
@@nsnopperNON STOP interjections from Chuck Rose👏👏👏👏👏👏mmm hmm
@@nsnopperand a very abrasive cadence of speech
It's called "iambic pentameter" Rose!!! Even English should be mellifluous goddamn it!
@@ttacking_you"Iambic pantameeter"... Philomena Cunk 😉
I agree whole-heartedly with the idea that we don't have enough slack in our day to day support systems that leaves us vulnerable to fluke events. My career was as a logistician and in my time, we moved from "just in case" inventory and support to "just in time" lean logistics. That makes for very cost-efficient systems, but the high level of optimization also makes them vulnerable to rapid failures when the unexpected occurs. Now we have just lived through supply chain disruption caused by the pandemic, a low likelihood, but high impact event. Others lurk out there if we don't build "shock absorbers" into the many critical systems we rely upon for day to day living.
The place where people fail with JIT is not having robust predictive algorithms to keep that just in time supply flow at the appropriate levels at all times even during peaks and valleys in demand. You can't have a fully integrated just in time soupy chain because demand ebbs and flows so you need to have the slack to upramp or downramp production, or distribute more or fewer at any given moment.
I believe that years ago Amazon experimented with having the most commonly ordered products constantly in motion toward the "last mile" facility even before the items were ordered so that an item ordered at 3 pm today could be delivered by noon tomorrow. At a post office they might receive five boxes of copy paper on Monday because on Mondays at least five boxes get ordered, so the moment someone orders one on monday, they are already unloading a case of five boxes of copy paper.
I think they built a more robust delivery network in the meantime, but in the early days they relied heavily on jit to accomplish next day delivery.
Relative to the broader implications of the topic at hand, I think of my daughter working at a grocery store for the first time. All her coworkers, both young and older, are dispirited and dejected, feeling trapped by their own lack of opportunities in a soulless job that pays very little. They are berated to hurry, hurry, hurry to get the shelves stocked as quickly as possible and then all come in early (5 am) to do inventory once a month; there are companies you pay to do inventory, but the store owners are too cheap to pay for such. Then the flu or COVID gets passed around and the remaining employees are berated to complete what is needed with only half the workers. There's no shock absorbers at all in the already stressed day to day operations; to ask more is impossible.
Our country is that grocery store. Employees quit, move on, or deal with their lost souls with alcohol, drugs, pent up anger, hatred, even suicide, etc. The pot eventually boils over either by unionizing, if they can make that happen, or by killing the business. There's no need for extreme efficiencies to make the very few rich. Government needs to regulate the economy more aggressively, but the rich bribe government people to maintain the status quo and we, the people are powerless.
So true! Grocery chains...a giant pile of sand.
Very true - I also think that our world - is constructed in such a way that efficiency is always valued the highest and I think there are instances where that is not always the case.
@@virginiamoss7045 You nailed it IMO Virginia
Excellent presentation, such good questions and insightful answers, I think the guest speaker is brilliant. Yes to "pattern seeking machines" I really enjoyed this, thank you PBS and Amanpour.
The scathing joke at the WHCD was by Seth Meyers, not Obama. The joke was, "Donald Trump has been saying he would run as a Republican, which is surprising, because I assumed he was running as a joke."
That's true, but Obama also mocked him as a "carnival barker." Don't forget that he was already pushing the birther conspiracy, and Obama was eager to delegitimize that.
@@rickknight1810
Yes, if memory serves, that WHCD was a day or two after Obama had released the "Long Form" of his Hawaii Birth Certificate.
He literally had to send an Aide to Hawaii to get the thing and bring it to DC, where everyone, including "the Donald", could see that Obama was "Born in the USA"!
And Obama said, now that the Birther Issue is no more, "Trump can focus on the 'real important things', like "Who Faked the Moon Landing?" and "Who killed Biggie Smalls?"
Trump is the world's biggest snowflake
But Trump actually IS a running joke!!
That's wild. Just talking to wife today about that. Couldn't remember who made the joke. Thanks.
What a brilliant mind. Whether he's correct or not, he moves from one innovative idea to the next without skipping a beat. Leaves us with so much to keep reflecting upon after 18 minutes.
It is a trail of inductive reasoning explored and researched in good faith. Being correct or not doesn't really enter into it. It is a possible model and therefore useful as a tool. A heuristic.
he is mostly popularizing ideas well established in fields such as complexity science and chaos theory.
Finally someone has hit the nail on the head: Any idiot that can use a mobile phone can be a journalist, editor, and publisher all-in-one without any capacity to be any of them.
Finally? That's hardly a novel insight.
Hmm......you must've gotten that straight from Tucker Carlson's bio!!
Citizen journalism sounded good in theory. It doesn't account for the vast numbers of people who view everything as an opportunity to exploit. Naomi Klein really understand this "shock doctrine" approach.
I wrote several PHP modules for WordPress that use chat gpt to act as editors, writers and and researchers to build files that become articles. I input a word or phrase and the end result is a factual article published on a website.
Honestly, I believe these scripts do a better job of writing articles than most people. If you read any of them you would probably not realize they were totally computer generated.
Not to mention all the armchair econ and foreign relation experts...
Love this guy. Understands how conspiracy theories affect a lot.
When the majority of "conspiracy theories" true out to be true then they aren't conspiracy theories. This is why elites called people conspiracy theorists when they try to push back against media's lies.
But srsly tho have you seen the Detroit Lions at Dallas ever
In college I read all of Herman Wouk. The Winds of War about war in the Pacific was amazing. A lot of it was a fluke after grand planning. Not what intended but somehow we survived. I'm 74 now and this is still with me. Needing or believing in control has consequences. We now know DNA is fluid. How we live matters.
That was one of the books I also read in college. It is still influencing my thinking. I'm 73 years old -- that was some book! 😊
I am not sure if Dr. Klass realizes that what he discovered is a well established principle of sociology, that the more complex and technically advanced a society is the more susceptible it is to being disrupted.
Your hatred of mans focused mind is noted. Pre-science, man was just barely surviving, dying in his early 20s and facing near-starvation on a daily basis. Primitive cultures provided only a life close to death. Little to disrupt. Modern philosophy is the primitive mentality w/a PhD. Klaas is extremely smart about rationalizing his stupidity. See Kant for more.
Brian Klaas wrote another fascinating book called “Corruptible: who gets power and how it changes us.” Highly recommend 🌟
His arguments about the vulnerabilities of "creating a world of less slack" reminds me of Nassim Taleb's book Anti-Fragile.
No slack; highly optimized; finely tuned to control an unstable situation; tall sand pile: these clearly describe many commercial and government enterprises today. Inequality and oppression is a source of "free energy" (borrowing a term from thermodynamics). If any one thinks that inequality can be sustained by secret police, barriers, walls, surveillance cameras, torture, etc. (China, Israel, East Germany) are in for a rude awakening at some point. Other situations are high debt, highly leveraged companies, and optimizing efficiency with little slack for safety (Boeing).
Good point except there is only east Germany as geographically distinct from west Germany, but they are still one country. It is the most conservative east Germany that poses a risk of instability in politics in the future and that may be imminent as Germany is in serious financial decline unlike anything they have seen for some time. This further threatened to destabilize the EU as the Euro has now dropped to equal the US dollar.
Get YOUR ENERGY Back. In your hands. Buy NonETF bitcoin and cold wallet it. Let it grow as the dollar dies. Tml
And yet, we're getting ready to try it here in THIS country next year!
Man has free will. Matter does not.
Your skill in advocating Marxism or New Leftism w/o identifying it marks you a graduate of corrupt schools. 200M dead. How many more before you become conseervative? And man is not a machine. You evade free will. And the alternative to Left and Righht is individual rights. See : Ayn Rand
Excellent questions. Good answers.
Isaacson is brilliant
Excellent points
Excellent guest, thank you.
Excellent part at 8 min on the persistence/appeal of conspiracy theories (our brain's predilection to search for patterns/stitch together narratives out of random events). Also how social media algorithms amplify conspiracy theories.
Brilliant. The only thing I disagree with is at the very end when he says, “we need to have a little less hubris.” In fact we need to have a lot less hubris, not a little.
I love chaos theory. Tipping points, phase shifts, butterfly effects, chaos, flow, thresholds. To paraphrase the author, "Noise was never irrelevant."
Cross discipline understanding, for example, chaos theory, mathematical theory and the social sciences, is a necessity for our understanding and our adaptation. Newtonian determinism never fully fit the bill.
"Humans are pattern detection machines.". Brilliantly simple explanation with which I couldn't agree more. Sometimes our pattern recognition is false which creates behavioral and societal problems, cognitive dissonance and logical fallacies, prejudiced if you will, but that's a whole other discussion. Certainly our pattern recognition systems can easily create chaos all by itself.
Please note: This is also an explanation of why democracy is so important. Can democracies be wrong? Well, yes. But one factor that democracy introduces into political systems is a monitoring of the effect of government on people and their lives. People, like organisms and ecosystems, the same for governments, must adapt. A lack of adaptation is stagnation. Stagnation cannot adapt to change which inevitably leads to systemic or ecological collapse, extinction, incrementally induced chaos, if you will. All legislation must be continuously monitored and changed to adapt. This concept was explored by Michael Crichton in his explanation on why climate science regulations needed to be constantly monitored to see the extraneous effects caused by the legislation. Democracies are, by nature, legislation monitoring systems.
The forces preventing healthy adaptation are also potent factors in creating systemic stress and potential chaotic collapse. Another brilliant insight by the speaker in the video, to paraphrase,"the past cannot necessarily present a solution for the present and the future; AI can only fully evaluate closed systems." This isn't to say that the past can never offer solutions, only that solutions must be based on the stress or relief of stress these solutions introduce into the system.
Like that train wreck a couple years ago….the company was down to 2 employees per train with trains running all day everyday, so the one fluke was catastrophic.
This is brilliant
This is brilliant. So many political events can be based on chaos theory and I think the Fluke analysis can be applied to the modern motivational obsession: - 'life is how you make it' 'if you work hard you'll be successful, rich, etc' - when much of life is down to sheer luck and chance. To quote John Lennon: “Life is what happens to you while you’re making other plans."
Wonderful geeky explanation of ‘the straw that broke the camel’s back’
Nice interview with #BrianKlaas. Sounds like a great book. Associative thinker!
What a fascinating discussion with a very good guest! He makes so much sense of describing the rise and spread of conspiracy theories. I live in the Midwest, and people here accept those absurd theories because they have been searching for decades for the cause of so many industries moving out of our part of the country, leaving millions in financial distress. Even I have wondered why no political figure realized the hornet's nest that was being built here simply because of that. Hopeless people always seek answers, but they often don't get the correct ones. Too often, they become vulnerable to false notions, some of which will actually harm them. In the case of the "Rust Belt", no one seemed to care about the millions of people being left behind. THAT was the danger - and the shame of our government - which permitted MAGA and Trump to appear and take hold, even of their minds.
It was known - you might not have been aware of it. If you were around or can recall the 1992 presidential election - that Bill Clinton defeated George HW Bush. there was a 3rd Party candidate that was a populist hero - Ross Perot - he was the grandfather of the Trump candidacy in a way - except he was much more about practical solutions. One of the major concerns of that election was - Trade - specifically - NAFTA - North American Free Trade Agreement. It was initiated by the Bush Administration, implemented by the Clinton administration - the result was removal of tariffs from the respective countries - encouraging wider scale trade. Ross Perot said during the debates that if NAFTA were to be implemented - "all you will hear is a giant sucking sound" what he meant was the evaporation of the manufacturing sector jobs from the United States. That is of course exactly what happened. The so called "rust belt" was classic middle America where those manufacturing skilled and unskilled jobs had been the norm for several generations - are what created the conditions for Americans to turn to someone like Trump for President. It did not help that his opponent was the wife of the president at the time when NAFTA was instituted. Again people falsely blame Clinton administration for creating NAFTA - they didn't but they did not stop it either - and when that happened - the democratic party lost its connection to "working people " that really they have never recovered from.
Very insightful and clearly articulated in response to some great questions!
Excellent food for thought. Bravo!!!
Trump was determined to enter public life. His business schemes were all coming apart and, as a professional hustler, he was looking for a new area to exploit vulnerable people. His “birther” rumors had found fertile ground and he could see opportunities for expansion. And I think he had encouragement from some foreign sources also.
I have no doubt that foreign sources helped fund his campaigns. He doesn't have a single principle unless self-glorification is a principle.
That is one way to look at it. - You cannot discount the effect a black president had on a wide swath of people. Remember he had been trying to run for president since the late 80s - but no one ever took him seriously. I think a black president so rattled enough people it gave him the start of enough people to listen. I remember when CNN kept featuring his rallies in 2015 that there was trouble ahead - and I will never forget his face - an expression when he realized how he had them - and that politics was going to be the ultimate hustle - it was that - OMG I should have done this years ago - the grifting is waaaaay too good. It still is hard to believe how deeply he has some of these people - they are waaaaaay beyond reason
It’s an old saying: “if you can’t convince them, confuse them!”
Then they go around in circles. Clever strategy, lest we all become enlightened.
wow!
@@LoudandClearChastity that is a perfect description of " Chaos" .
@@UnashamedCaliforniagirl thanks. Maybe I should have added, "divide and conquer"! Warm greetings from Australia 🦘 Have a beautiful, holy Easter.
Very good interview. Can’t wait to read this book.
Also look at his book , Corruptible
I like Brian's "applied physics" analogy to social pressures; and his other (pattern recognition) observations.
Really good interview. Good questions
There are similarities here to Gunderson and Holling’s Panarchy Theory. A hierarchical model seeking to explain how complex systems adapt at various spatiotemporal scales. The model consists of four “phases” where the system acts in a distinct way to either structure, collapse, or reorganize itself.
If only we could all use our words as eloquently and effectively as those speaking in this vid, did…ty for sharing.
Its a brilliant read - We control nothing but influence everything and changing anything, changes everything, so everything you do matters.
Excellent book. I've long been fascinated how chance or luck is so big a part of life and yet we call it fate or destiny. Paul Auster, who recently passed away, was always attuned to how randomness and luck affect us all every day in his wonderfully strange novels.
I just purchased the audiobook. I look forward to reading this. I have been attributing the chaos today to the developing dynamics of modern communication technology. Yes, we are “ pattern detection machines”.
Yep. Smartphones, the widespread adoption of social media and recommendation algorithms have turned our world into a modern tower of Babel where everyone is producing content to be consumed for dopamine huts
Great show. I wish the problem that the US tendency to be more religious and rely on non-evidentiary reasoning (e.g., faith) is also a contribution to the proliferation of conspiracy theories.
There is a lot of merit to what you are saying - remember the whole idea is trying to satisfy a very important human need to be able to understand the world around us. We have developed models that we believe do a good job at predicting outcomes - and that gives society enough confidence to go out and try their best at life. When those models fail - there are a contingent that like to attribute it to their all- knowing sky daddy. They don't like science or logic - or masks or vaccines - all their faith is in their sky daddy after all he knows better than us after all. The more darker spirited of that crowd - tend to believe it is some dark alien force is enacting some causes that we do not know about - but they do - and they are the real cause
Brilliant!
Thank you - I will read the book. Terrific interview.
'There is no story'. As a terrible story teller, this is heartening. Though, if someone is good at spinning a yarn, with just enough truth (or fact) in it, the effect can be far reaching, for ill or good.
Correct. But it also requires a mark or a rube. Someone so gullible to believe your tall tail. Trump found a population of gullible ignorant people to believe and spread his yarn.
Talk about a tough topic, brilliant.
Isaacson is a great interviewer--and author of course.
Chaos theory is a useful way to examine any and all social change, for better or for worse. As far as I know Rianne Eisler was the first to do this in her 1987 book The Chalice And The Blade. Strange attractors and equilibrium disruptions... Suddenly a seemingly insignificant or even unknown attractor becomes a steady attractor by virtue of being in the vicinity at the time of equilibrium disruption. We spend a lot of time talking about History and Progress and Society in ways that don't track with reality when we examine all known factors and allow for unknown factors.
Sooo powerful and important! Thank you!!
Clarity is a wonderful tool.
Liked and shared this gem of a video.
excellent. we need more public broad-audience explanation and application of complexity theory like this. this is what a lot of americans are missing in their knowledge/awareness.
As I always ask the universe: "Aye, cut me some slack!" Great interview, thank you.
This is an elemental understanding that I think is necessary going forward in this uncertain world. Brian Klaas talks about the need for slack in the world to reduce the possibility of flukes that can be so disruptive. Klaas used the example of how different it might have been if the people had been validated for their concerns about not being heard in relation to a host of issues. Then trump would have had no opportunity to come in with his rhetoric that he heard the complaints about the average person.
trump never intended to really follow through with policy to help the mass of people that he really cared, but his stance got him elected because of his constant attacks on the establishment and the rhetoric about concern for the people. . But since trump made everything he did about himself nothing was ever done for the greivances of the middle class.
Ultimately, it was a lost opportunity because if trump's actions had reflected his rhetoric he could made huge changes in society. This is a point all politicians could learn from. And it behooves all of to look at this organisations that seem wrapped to tight or functioning within a very tight profit margins that are at risk for random fluke event which can be a godsend to use a metaphor or destroy the organisation. With a little thought many examples of both come to mind in addition what was mentioned in this video.
“This is not about persuasion: This is about disorientation.”
- Steve Bannon
Outstanding!! Ordering book NOW!
Also look at his book , Corruptible.
Very good writer
Thx!! @@whazzat8015
He feeds on chaos. It gives him energy. He’s a chaos vampire. He likes to cause pain and see people upset. That’s his ego, and he conned people into thinking otherwise cause his greatest power is the ability to lie and make you believe it.
Observing the situation that the US finds itself in, where truth seems arbitrary and news can be manipulated so easily, it’s scary to think how we will respond to a “real” and serious world event in the future…
the movie "Don't Look Up" is a perfect example of how we'll respond to a serious threat
like climate change? as if you arent scared already
Please read this, to those who can't understand, to know why 74 million people love trump; It's a combination of other things I've read, written better than I could:
I've spoken to a number of folks that are ardent Trump supporters. In chorus they claim he was the greatest President ever. I've asked each one of them which policy of Trump's really resonated with them. I'm still waiting to hear. I have one friend who is now a very easily angered, very potentially violent, Trumper. We have been friends long before he knew who Trump was, and had never been a violent person. I asked him once why he supports trump, he could only answer asking why I didn't. I gave him a long list, but he could only say he believes in trump's policies, however he could not name even one. It's nothing that he actually did it's just how he makes them feel, empowered to be the worst human beings that they can be, and unapologetically so. He makes them feel good about saying and doing mean things and not feeling one bit bad about it. It's because we have to understand that when Trump expresses these childish thoughts and expressions, being as mean-spirted as a skillet full of rattle snakes, Trump is communicating effectively with his base. They say, "look, he's one of us!", and indeed he is. The worse Trump acts? The more names he calls women? (Trump's got a real problem with women); The more Trump praises dictators? The more Trump does all these awful things, puts his own interests over the country's --- the more his MAGA base loves him.
I used to think the MAGAs loved Trump despite all these terrible things, but we have to face it as a country: They love Trump BECAUSE of these traits. Trump knows this so he embraces it, and he gets the media to show him in all his evil, glorious, hate. That's why people say it's a cult: These people don't want a decent person representing them. And MOST of them refer to themselves as Christians.
That is it in a nutshell. They no longer have to pretend to be decent people. Trump allows them to be proud of being the worst people that they can be, while at the same time claiming to be Christians. For many years, I've found people who just want to be one of the bad guys in a Mad Max post apocalyptic dystopia. As such, they hate civilization and everything about it; they want to be 'bad', because they think that makes them look like tough macho men. They feel utterly miserable, living by rules, laws, regulations and discipline of modern society. They just want it all to burn down and Trump and Qanon and the GOP are giving them everything they want. I have been threatened and told to get ready for a civil war, all because I asked if they thought Trump was a good role model for their children.. He often doesn't even know where he is, who he is talking about, or what any goals he has, are. He sounds like a second grader always wanting to throw mud on the pretty girl in a white dress just because she doesn't like him, and the bullies and wanna be bullies all want to do the same thing, because the people they want, don't want them. They are all, JUST LIKE TRUMP. And they believe that if they can keep him in power, the world will somehow respect their terrible, ludicrous behavior as an appropriate thing, too. They live to hate other people
Best comment
Smart young man. I look forward to reading, and hearing more from him.
Excellent interview! Thank you.
Brian Klauss never disappoints.
🧡Love🧡this🧡video🧡
When he spoke of the poor Tunisian guy who set himself on fire, "igniting" the Arab Spring, I thought of some lines from Longfellows Poem ("The Midnight Ride of Paul Revere"):
". . .and beneath, from the pebbles in passing, a Spark,
struck out by a Steed flying fearless and fleet.
.. . .and yet, through the Gloom and the Night,
The fate of a Nation was riding that Night.
And the Spark struck out by that Steed in its flight,
kindled the land into flame with its heat.. . . "
(if memory serves)
Of course, the American Revolution was somewhat more "controlled" than the "Arab Spring".
With regard to Brian Klass mentioning how our world is "wired" differently", for Flukes to have a greater effect, there is this from Chapter 12 of the Book of Daniel:
Daniel tells the Angel Gabriel : "But Lord, I do not understand these words."
Gabriel tells him:
"Go your way, Daniel, for the meaning of the words of Prophecy
is hidden until the End Times.
"Many will travel about and knowledge will increase. . . .
"Go now, and rise for your reward at the End of Days".
Circa 530 BC/ BCE
I dig Klaas' juxtaposition of the discovery of fire with AI in the implication that it is like fire a discovery with it's black boxed machine learning nursery and not an invention, but the 'great man of history' notes he's hitting seem problematic.
Very interesting.
Thank you.
Ilya Prigogine won a Nobel Prize for proving "importation and dissipation of energy into chemical systems could result in the emergence of new structures (hence dissipative structures) due to internal self reorganization." Seems like its that marginal addition of energy that turns a system of randomness into one of structure, turning energy into order.
Maybe I’ve become dull, but this seems more like a book to produce a (lucrative) look. Something brilliant, somehow, gets forgotten quickly and then Kanye West is back in the news making more of an impact than this scholar. I guess that could be explained by chaos theory too - I mean, what isn’t?
Words like "noise" or "random" are labels for things we don't really understand. Even if you are a hard-core Newtonian materialist, things like noise or "random events" are actually completely predictable IF one has all the data. And even a materialist would know that we are severely limited in our ability to not only perceive, but also to comprehend reality. This guy's ideas are just a feel-good story to help us imagine we understand things without actually having much of a clue about what's really going on.
Great video, I learned something :)
Excellent talk. Thanks.
Excellent interview. The book sounds very interesting...
Very interesting video
Very insightful.
Horseshit, Chaos theory doesn't explain the rise of authoritarians. It is simply exploitation of our evolutionary inclinations to form tribes. When environmental stressors rise, so does tribalism. Religion and authoritarians are simply the most successful tribal organizing forces in human history. Tribes require alternative truths to differentiate and tribal membership has been a life or death choice since before we left the trees. That's all there is to it. Only critical thinking skills taught in K thru 12 would give us any chance to avoid tribal pitfalls and the ability to face global threats.
In chaos (systems) theory, these are mechanics applied at nodes (events in time and place), which in turn create dynamics. So yes, you just described causality in an open system. And I agree, teaching critical thinking in schools in a democracy that educates everyone is an important systems intervention.
Its a tool; "just say you are opening an investigation and leave the rest to me and my congress ppl to do the rest"
Gets the Lie out first so Truth has to be defended, the weaker stance. Tell ppl you are for something and then tell them you didnt mean what you said "it was a joke". As a civilian, tell congress how to kill a bill in order for that civilian to use as an attack on the incumbent president. Say outloud " I hope the economy Tanks this year " by the person who thinks he is the Only one who can fix it, Tweets messages of threats and how he is the victim as he names ppl for his followers to attack and threaten........a tool to use as a means
Your theory and Brian’s theory don’t exclude one another, they are rather completing each other.
We need a formal measure of how precarious a sand pile has become.
The sand pile condition determines what will happen - the fluke determines when or where an event starts.
This means our means of predicting the future is in measuring the stability of "sand piles".
It’s a fantastic book! He is a really good writer.
Thank you. Loved the book. Great examples.
Great video
5:10 - (Paraphrasing) "If things had happened differently, things would have ended up differently." Absolutely brilliant!
Very interesting interview. I have already lived a number of flukes that changed my life dramatically for the better. Hoping to avoid bad ones but I suppose some are inevitable over time.
Heinlien wrote about the existence of the Variant in all proceedings. He didn't use the term "variant", but he was talking about the element of "strangeness" or "randomness" that occurs, uncontrollably, in daily events.
Saw this episode and waiting for the book to be delivered ..
Chaos Theory suggests that the small chance we elect a fascist for president that at least we have the impeachment process. And if we have a insane fascist we have the 25th amendment. But if we have a fascist cabinet and if we have more than 1/3 of the Senators being fascist then we're out of luck because we can't impeach and we can't use the 25th.
Fascinating!! Thanks!!
The dumbing down of education in the U.S. is also a factor.
Excellent discussion
More stuff like this please:)
Wow, love these interviews! Brian Klass points were exactly how the world feels to me: it’s a hinge-point in history now, if any extraordinary event occurred now, it would not surprise many in tune with geopolitics or socioeconomics, etc. I really thought the sand pile was a good metaphor, and also his statement “there is no ‘slack’ in the system.” An example of a fluke event to me was the laker ship the Edmund Fitzgerald; most people don’t realize it was built to the longest length possible for Great Lakes shipping, which made it even look vulnerable- they still don’t know if it snapped in half or got waterlogged. Again, with its length, it created the sand pile scenario, and the Lake Superior event caused the catastrophe- but there was also ‘no slack’ in the length of the ship which made it more precarious than a shorter vessel.
I love when someone puts order to a feeling that I've had. I always kind of thought that certain key moments were bound to happen, it's just a matter of who falls upon it first. it's not true for everything, like penicillin, but for a lot of things.
Awesome insights to which I agree.
Fascinating!
Political butterflies. Excellent interview.
Thank you
This is absolutely brilliant.
Thanks ❤
Good one.
Definition of Fluke: Sometimes low probability shite happens.
😂😂😂😂
Very intriguing.
I look forward to reading this.
I always find it fascinating how God can change the course of things with tiny little actions!
Love this !!
Conspiracy theories happen mostly where people lose trust and become a bit paranoid. And there are especially many reasons to lose trust in the US where corporate interests rule so much. Politicians just use the distrust to support their own interests.
trump is an example of using conspiracy theory to both trigger more distrust in government and the perceived opposition which in turn benefits his own self-interest.
@@michaeldeierhoi4096 Yes, very much.
@@michaeldeierhoi4096 yes that is true - but you have to realize that he is a little different - in that he is a malignant narcissitic sociopath - he lies like you or I breathe - with people like that - it is inconceivable that everyone else is not lying, cheating also - I am pretty certain he actually believes that. He has a very warped perception of reality and conspiracy theories can be very useful to create doubt and give him an advantage.
@@pjpredhomme7699 I can't argue with what you say and he is a clear example of someone who must be removed from society because of his drive to divide and misinform people which creates a mob-like mentality in people. And many of those most on the fringe of that 'mob' are the ones who are more likely to commit violent acts e.g. The attack on Many Pelosi's husband.
Insightful.
Don't shrink the facts to fit the theory, shrink the theory to fit the facts.