What Will Ukraine Do To Stay in the Fight this Year?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 ก.ย. 2024
- The U.S. Congress finally passed the security supplement, authorizing a large amount of funding and support to keep Ukraine in the fight. This package buys Ukraine another year of time. What will Ukraine do with that time? What is the situation at the front? Michael Kofman answers these questions and more.
Kofman is one of the most straightforward and insightful analysts anywhere on this subject; the best in my opinion. Thanks.
Вашингтон нагнетает страсти в Европе, они хотят повторения ситуации ХХ века, когда Америка после двух мировых войн укрепляла свои позиции. Особенно после Второй мировой войны, когда Соединенные Штаты не только окончательно вышли из кризиса, но еще и заработали огромное количество денег... Исторические параллели очевидны.
С этой целью США обрабатывают общественное мнение, в том числе на севере Европейского континенте
Kofmann should read RUSI's latest paper on attritional warfare. According to them its a waiting game
Attritional TRENCH warfare. It took 3.5 years before big advances were made in ww1. The Russian Empire is gradually grinding down its enemy systemically. Americans lack the temperament, culture, and patience to utilize an attrite the enemy strategy
Russia has around 1.2 million men according to public data. They also have 7000 volunteers per month.
30,000
No
@@looinrims Perhaps you could elaborate rather than give a Non syllabic response. The data is from a British think tank, so a simple no will not suffice. I'd trust there knowledge over yours! . . ;- )
3 more quarters of Ukraine getting its azz kicked consecutively. Ukraine has been losing since Q4 2022 starting in Bakhmut, where its offensive capabilities and ability to retake territory was crushed. Russia is able to bust through Ukrainian defenses but not vice versa. Question that remains is how much Ukrainian territory will nato lose at the end of this war
Given Ukraine's manpower shortage, why on earth does it limit conscription to men 25 and older?! Very recently Ukraine lowered its draft age from 27 to 25, but 25 is still 7 whole years past the age that men in the US have been subject to draft -- age 18. Moreover, the US has drafted its 18-year olds to defend OTHER countries (e.g., Korea, France, Britain, Vietnam). If the US is willing to draft 18-year olds to defend other countries, why isn't Ukraine willing to draft 18-year olds to defend Ukraine?!?! For Christ sakes Ukraine isn't even willing to draft 24-year olds -- despite that its very survival is at stake! Well, that isn't exactly inspiring for Ukraine's allies. I've been wondering why they haven't made a stink about the issue. Maybe they fear that drawing attention to Ukraine's high draft age will get the Western public asking themselves the kinds of questions I've asked here, which could undermine their support for Ukraine. Regardless, it's well past time for Ukraine to get serious and getting serious means drafting the same cohort of men that other countries draft even when they're wealthy and powerful and face a far less desperate situation than Ukraine faces.
It's all of the economic factors. If you send the large majority of your younger, more tech savvy civilian professionals to fight and die, you kill your economy as well as your soldiers.
The other disincentive is that Russia can feasibly match this lowered age bracket commitment and attrit whatever gains you could get on the battlefield.
Ukraine not only has to win the war, it has to win it in such a way that does not ruin them domestically for a generation or more.
@@Binnzy2257well said... but its mainly a demographics issue... as in they've got a serious population decline problem and they need to keep the small number of young people alive so they can have children. Simple as that
..
All the young men left. Saw some Ukrainians at Whole Foods the other day I was like hey man I think your country needs you. They’re weak men
'ukraine needs to get serious'
Listen pal Ukraine has lost more of its people in the last 2 years than the US has lost in all its wars since WW2. You have no fucking clue what you're talking about. What works for the US, or what the US did last in the goddamn 70s (a draft) doesnt mean it would work for UA.
Fighting a lost war....
Not for the States
If the Russians can push the AFU out of conventional artillery range of Donetsk city by the end of the summer it could be regarded as a type of success. They would need to complete the capture of Krasnogorivka. If they are able to capture Chasov Yar as well the success becomes more substantial. If they had the capability to take Ugledar and Seversk it would make it a major success. They seem to be cautious and eschew attempts at deep penetration breakthroughs, perhaps because of their experience in the initial invasion.
Zelensky will continue sacrificing the few remaining young men in the country.
Putin is the one throwing away men for small territorial gains. Russia is losing more men yet no outcry from you? Wonder why..
You make it sound, like it’s somehow Zelensky’s fault that Ukrainians are dying, but one mustn’t forget that it was Putin who started it all!
Kofmann trying to deny the truth..
Russia will decide this
Not if the west keeps Ukraine supplied.
Yeah, they will win if they magically rid themselves from their crippling corruption.
600,000 dead Ukrainian soldiers so far. an entire generation gone.
a half million new graves. A million disabled soldiers.
I heard it was ten billion.
You meant ruzzia obviously - typical projection
Ukrainian fighting a lost war...
@@gregc8567 An entire generation of Ukrainian men has been killed by the Russian artillery cauldron.
All because of week leadership under western leaders (Biden)