My 5 Predictions for the next "cycle"

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 26 ธ.ค. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 157

  • @FlorisDVijfde
    @FlorisDVijfde หลายเดือนก่อน +46

    "All your models will be broken." - Michael Saylor, Prague '24.

    • @user-2FABE7F
      @user-2FABE7F หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Fred should listen more 😂 let's see where mstr is in four years.

  • @JosephJohnson-f1
    @JosephJohnson-f1 หลายเดือนก่อน +37

    I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other TH-cam trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to Follow.

    • @Saintjoseph-26
      @Saintjoseph-26 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I've been making a lot of looses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?

    • @ElenaGomez-1
      @ElenaGomez-1 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Trading on a demo account can definitely feel similar to the real market, but there are some differences. It's important to remember that trading involves risks and it's normal to face looses sometimes. One piece of advice is to start small and gradually increase your investments as you gain more experience and confidence. It might also be helpful

    • @WilliamsJoseph-v5c
      @WilliamsJoseph-v5c หลายเดือนก่อน

      I will advise you should stop trading on your own if you keep losing.

    • @lopezhernandez12
      @lopezhernandez12 หลายเดือนก่อน

      If you can, then get a professional to trade for you i think that way your assets are more secure

    • @WilliamsJoseph-v5c
      @WilliamsJoseph-v5c หลายเดือนก่อน

      I'd recommend "Helen Smith" her profit is great even when there's a dip

  • @memento9979
    @memento9979 หลายเดือนก่อน +14

    Your channel is incredibly underrated.
    Thanks for your great content and insights.

  • @zwelizungu3307
    @zwelizungu3307 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    Most sensible argument to date. Thanks Fred.

  • @mikeh9956
    @mikeh9956 หลายเดือนก่อน +22

    Fred missing the MSTR boat.

  • @lennyrashkovsky4725
    @lennyrashkovsky4725 หลายเดือนก่อน +10

    Fred, please explain IBIT options and how they will affect BTC

  • @tennishill177
    @tennishill177 หลายเดือนก่อน +15

    Saylor will adjust. He seems to play the bitcoin chess game a little better than others.

  • @ceerawlins3412
    @ceerawlins3412 หลายเดือนก่อน +11

    RIP giovani, Powerlaw and diminishing returns

  • @ChristopherWalkenActor
    @ChristopherWalkenActor หลายเดือนก่อน +11

    I'm 5O/50 MSTR and BTC. Both are good.

  • @jayhebert8775
    @jayhebert8775 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Love this channel!!
    Thanks for the information.

  • @johnm1765
    @johnm1765 หลายเดือนก่อน +14

    Get Saylor as a guest! MSTR!!!!

  • @T.J
    @T.J หลายเดือนก่อน

    Can you tell us more about the chair in the background ? I am confused by it. It almost looks like a Thonet chair made from bent steamed wood, that would have sunk into the ocean for a few years and came out covered in oysters...

  • @firehorse1966
    @firehorse1966 หลายเดือนก่อน +10

    Your reliance on power law may be detrimental to your wealth. But then again, I suspect you have plenty to want to cash out significant portion and retire at 100k. But we need the redistribution so thank you in advance. My point : power law does not take into account the superimposition of corporate capital, simple as that. All previous cycles and observations formed were based on predominantly retail capital

    • @forceofchaos1
      @forceofchaos1 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      The asset was a lot smaller back then too. Which means you need more capital to move the market, and corporate treasurys that buy bitcoin fulfill that role really well

    • @chrismcconkey9543
      @chrismcconkey9543 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      This is incorrect, the model assumes continuous adoption and such events occurring in order to maintain its adherence to the power law

    • @firehorse1966
      @firehorse1966 หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​​@@chrismcconkey9543you'll have up to 2 Sigma deviation to continue to substantiate the power law adherence theory. After that you might need a new model 😂😂😂

  • @MrSami-ve2fi
    @MrSami-ve2fi หลายเดือนก่อน +28

    MSTR TO DA MOOOON 🌙 🚀 ❤

    • @dsflat6785
      @dsflat6785 หลายเดือนก่อน

      When corporations do a MSTR, pumping their own stock by holding Meme coins in corporate reserves it's going to get bonkers 🤪
      Hoppy 🐸

  • @alejandrovillanueva5386
    @alejandrovillanueva5386 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Great content Fred. It's obvious that MSTR can't outperform BTC forever. I think it might be wise to have a tiny slice of a strong miner like MARA in case that the BTC federal reserve bill gets approved

  • @dbsalzw
    @dbsalzw หลายเดือนก่อน +12

    You should short MSTR if you believe it’s overvalued, right? As a holder, I encourage you to act on your beliefs

    • @terrydizzydude4087
      @terrydizzydude4087 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Shorting a stock at the beginning of a bull cycle doesn't make any sense.

    • @scott1572
      @scott1572 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Does that mean you've sold everything in the world including bitcoin to go long microstrategy? I assume not, doesn't mean you don't believe it's going up.
      You can have thoughts without action. That's a good sign of intelligence actually

    • @besovereign2032
      @besovereign2032 หลายเดือนก่อน

      timing

  • @RootBeerGMT
    @RootBeerGMT หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    If adoption continues, there should be no unnecessary concern about a major draw down. It should not be ruled out, but it’s not going to be some magical adherence to a “power law”. If people keep buying, it goes up. If people stop buying and primarily sell-it goes down.

  • @oliverallen5324
    @oliverallen5324 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    They won’t tap out lol. They’ll just keep doing it. The system has a vulnerability and they’re winning using the exploit. We’ll see. Conjecture is fun.

  • @texan77581
    @texan77581 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    After Motley Fools did a hit piece on MSTR in January when the price was in the 40’s you went negative on Saylor. I think it’s a over simplification to compare MSTR to a closed end fund. We will find out next year

  • @AntoineLucas-x1t
    @AntoineLucas-x1t หลายเดือนก่อน +26

    I just have to applaud your content man, well done. Long term investors know that the market and economy will recover eventually, and investors should be positioned for such a rebound. I gained $180k from bitcoin in 2021 before the market crash and now I'm buying again, adding more at a time. Having a good financial advisor like Victoria Wiezorek, it will add to your success in the crypto market.

    • @ShelleyDoeden
      @ShelleyDoeden หลายเดือนก่อน

      Wow. I'm surprised seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, I'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super

    • @TommyWilliams-b9m
      @TommyWilliams-b9m หลายเดือนก่อน

      Victoria Wiezorek strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started

    • @ChristopherAllsbrook
      @ChristopherAllsbrook หลายเดือนก่อน

      Really you people know her? I was even thinking that I'm the only one she has helped walk through the fears and falls of trading

    • @GeorgeAllen-e9s
      @GeorgeAllen-e9s หลายเดือนก่อน

      I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?

    • @MikeGillihan
      @MikeGillihan หลายเดือนก่อน

      The first time we had tried, we invested $1400 and after a week we received $5,230. That really helped us a lot to pay our bills.

  • @dianatadi
    @dianatadi หลายเดือนก่อน +419

    Thanks for sharing XAI25N and SUI. 💯

  • @marcoshernandez745
    @marcoshernandez745 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    Your opinion of MSTR value is erroneous. They are probably single-handedly going to take over a huge chunk of the bond market with the products they can issue. People have no idea.
    Their nav premium isn’t going to go to 1 😂

  • @Paul-v2h
    @Paul-v2h หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Thanks Fred Enjoyed your thoughts, disagree with about half of it, but that's OK.

  • @ISAIASDallas-y6h
    @ISAIASDallas-y6h หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    The novelty of INFTY3 Token inspires me. It is widening the scope of the conceivable.

  • @JohnInvest17
    @JohnInvest17 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Love your passion on Bitcoin! I could listen to your content all day.
    Your bitcoin content reminds me of Tone Vays bitcoin videos. He is a Bitcoin bull too since like 2014.

  • @DonBrott-jz8it
    @DonBrott-jz8it หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    THANKS FRED...!

  • @joshie2985
    @joshie2985 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I don’t think he’s right about MSTR because it isn’t an ETF and it has a strategy that enables it to keep growing, which isn’t limited by the 300 billion market that he mentions. Issuing stock to buy bitcoin is also a big part of their plan. Michael Saylor and his team are creative and are constantly iterating the business model. I agree if we get a drawdown/bear market that MSTRs price will go down with it, that’s to be expected, and so will be the recovery that follows.

    • @faitaccompli5878
      @faitaccompli5878 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Plus the convertible bond market is almost 50 times bigger than what he stated.

  • @ceerawlins3412
    @ceerawlins3412 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Mstr should have a 10x mnav minimum

  • @st.charlesofaberdeen154
    @st.charlesofaberdeen154 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    As long as the demand for Bitcoin is constant or rising microstrategy will accomplish its goals❤

  • @oliverallen5324
    @oliverallen5324 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Models are comfy but no model can accurately graph finite supply, as this has never happened before in economics.

  • @marktube4377
    @marktube4377 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Missed the MSTR boat completely

  • @aatoys001
    @aatoys001 26 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Fred, if the US economy falls into a recession in the next 2 yrs, will bitcoin decline or increase in value? Is bitcoin a good hedge for stock market bubble burst?

  • @antmax6135
    @antmax6135 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Dear Dott. Krueger can you make an in depth video on you power law graph? thak you I'll appreciate. All the best

  • @monalisa6447
    @monalisa6447 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    How can you compare BITW to MSTR?

  • @trojanman10dp
    @trojanman10dp หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Ryquant calling you out for your MSTR comments. Response?

  • @LIVINGONTHEBITCOINSTANDARD
    @LIVINGONTHEBITCOINSTANDARD หลายเดือนก่อน

    Agreed on the lending! 1 out of 5

  • @javierortegaAMZ
    @javierortegaAMZ หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great one

  • @misty671
    @misty671 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Target price of just under $500k wow. I would be happy with that.🎉

    • @seanjoys7360
      @seanjoys7360 หลายเดือนก่อน

      When did he say that

    • @CardSharkGermany
      @CardSharkGermany หลายเดือนก่อน

      Watch again

    • @besovereign2032
      @besovereign2032 หลายเดือนก่อน

      happy now but can you sit thru the savage pullbacks.

    • @CardSharkGermany
      @CardSharkGermany หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      No, I will not hodl through, will cash out with dca and later start again with dca

    • @misty671
      @misty671 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@CardSharkGermany good call, dca in and dca out.

  • @v4vannatta521
    @v4vannatta521 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Nice, I like that this episode is 13:37 in length :)

  • @faitaccompli5878
    @faitaccompli5878 28 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Convertible debt is estimated to be 10% of the bond market, that's $14 trillion dollars, could Microstrategy take 10% of that $14 trillion? I believe they can.

  • @acrobatmapping
    @acrobatmapping หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    what is the price of bitcoin based on power law right now?

    • @jdk050507
      @jdk050507 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      80k ish

  • @GertudeSchwab
    @GertudeSchwab หลายเดือนก่อน

    INFTY3 Token's community is developing rapidly. It's a testament to its potential.

  • @captaingoodness9812
    @captaingoodness9812 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I think your power law model and MSTR only acquiring 500K bitcoin are contradictory.

  • @matt8746
    @matt8746 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I am hesitant to say that you don't understand MSTR cause of your experience and education. The yield is in bitcoin, so you have to denominate in bitcoin and invest to increase you amount of bitcoin. They don't need a million BTC.

  • @henrybendix5857
    @henrybendix5857 หลายเดือนก่อน

    "All your models will be broken." / Michael Saylor, Prague '24.

  • @bdalpine
    @bdalpine หลายเดือนก่อน

    I predict that the predictions won't even be able to predict how many predictions that aren't bullish enough.

  • @joetrump5844
    @joetrump5844 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    The days of BTC crashing to -50% are things of the past .
    I would love ❤️ to stack at $60,000.00 once again, but the chance of that ever happening are none to never.
    The most important fact is ….. scarcity…… you have more people buying the supplies that exist……. Soon , you will going to run out.
    There’s at least fifty two millionaires in the world 🌎 right now……….
    How many of them have already been displaced from ever owning a Bitcoin ???
    Stack and hold .
    😎

  • @yarmohammadi
    @yarmohammadi หลายเดือนก่อน

    What do you think of the new council in SaMo?

  • @siferd18
    @siferd18 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    It’s going to be hilarious when this “Power Law” shit is broken this cycle. This cycle is 1000% different. The institutions are here and the ETFs are not retail and hedge funds who are going to dump at the so called peak. It will correct but not like you think.

  • @AdventuresAtHome1
    @AdventuresAtHome1 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Any thoughts on MSTR? It’s massively outperforming BTC!

  • @AdventuresAtHome1
    @AdventuresAtHome1 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    If you are so confident of your MSTR views, get Saylor on your show and debate him!

  • @Mike-lz2ef
    @Mike-lz2ef หลายเดือนก่อน

    Love your content Fred..but I think you're missing the boat on MSTR. Consider this..what value would you put on a company that has the potential to own 1 million bitcoin and each coin is worth $10 million?? That obviously will be the most valuable (in terms of market cap) company in the world. That is why people are willing to pay a premium to current NAV to own it.

  • @bbcdsatoshi
    @bbcdsatoshi หลายเดือนก่อน

    Fred needs to interview Michael Saylor

  • @tarpontail2750
    @tarpontail2750 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I would love to see you and sailor debate

  • @bob1232010
    @bob1232010 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Fred just admit you’re salty that you missed out on MSTR. Saylor is bullish for BTC, why are you against his strategy? It’s win/win

  • @Coover90210
    @Coover90210 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The only model that matters is the S curve adoption model. I can't wait for all the "OG experts" to sell at 18 months after the halving ...I will be having all your bases.

  • @tjmooney4181
    @tjmooney4181 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Acquire as many satoshis as possible while uneducated people still accept dollars for them

  • @AndyJRogers
    @AndyJRogers หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    The more adoption the better 😊

  • @ThePostmillennial
    @ThePostmillennial หลายเดือนก่อน

    A trillion dollars into Bitcoin would put it at 100 Trillion dollar market cap due to the bull market multiplier effect. 🤷🏼‍♂️

    • @ThePostmillennial
      @ThePostmillennial หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Also I agree with the predictions except I think the pull back will be 70%.

  • @scott1572
    @scott1572 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Could you please get Rafi Farber to have a conversation

  • @johnfurr6060
    @johnfurr6060 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Synopsis: #HODL

  • @danpate6807
    @danpate6807 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Hey Fred. This one was a little to slow and painful to listen to.

  • @jjvaldes1
    @jjvaldes1 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Have you seen Saylors definition of all your 10 exits? You will become saltier😅

  • @phoenix9677
    @phoenix9677 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Reference to power law gets annoying if we are being honest......no one cares about the models

    • @CardSharkGermany
      @CardSharkGermany หลายเดือนก่อน

      I care…and many others

    • @chrismcconkey9543
      @chrismcconkey9543 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I really only care about the models lmao , at least when I’m listening to this Chanel , I didn’t come here for the glossy video production

    • @phoenix9677
      @phoenix9677 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@chrismcconkey9543 How long have you been stacking BTC ? Eventually you around here long enough, all the models get flawed. I would also say Kruger isn't been right about everything - if you been around here sniffing around, you would understand. Not saying I don't like Fred, just keeping it 100.

  • @bujin5455
    @bujin5455 หลายเดือนก่อน

    We get nation state FOMO and power law is going to get rebased. MOASS!

  • @Peterogen
    @Peterogen หลายเดือนก่อน

    ❤❤❤❤

  • @Reppucci24
    @Reppucci24 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Haha dudes about to have over 400k on monday

  • @dcreator2800
    @dcreator2800 หลายเดือนก่อน

    So everyone is a fool except for Fred.

  • @toiturefortin4448
    @toiturefortin4448 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Whats the second best crypto

  • @ctsd623
    @ctsd623 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Uhhh uhhh too much uhhh 😂

  • @celineaulani
    @celineaulani หลายเดือนก่อน +446

    Your video convinced me to invest in XAI25N, expecting 10x gains. Excited for listings!

  • @StephenBe
    @StephenBe หลายเดือนก่อน

    There’s one problem with your book…it can be printed.

  • @boostandflow4603
    @boostandflow4603 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Number 6. DOG is going to the moon

  • @KirbyLarry
    @KirbyLarry หลายเดือนก่อน

    Do you think Kaspa will continue to follow the power law? It seems to be doing so. Thoughts?

    • @gbrown9694
      @gbrown9694 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I don’t think it is now. It just hasn’t performed.

  • @robertp.3792
    @robertp.3792 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I would very much appreciate if people stopped trying to predict the future. If you are not God, you don't know what future will bring. I would appreciate it if you just stick to facts and talk about models and probability, not certainty.

  • @t-birdmr.t7980
    @t-birdmr.t7980 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This video is 1337 as the video is 13:37 long

  • @Amybirdsallbraden
    @Amybirdsallbraden หลายเดือนก่อน

    Dd❤

    • @DotkruegrYouTube-n1s
      @DotkruegrYouTube-n1s หลายเดือนก่อน

      𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭𝐬𝐚𝐩𝐩𝕟𝕦𝕞𝕓𝕖𝕣🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸±𝟭𝟮𝟴𝟭𝟯𝟭𝟳𝟱𝟭𝟰𝟬🇺🇸⊥👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾✴️✴️大家都是这样❤️❤️❤️❤️

    • @DotkruegrYouTube-n1s
      @DotkruegrYouTube-n1s หลายเดือนก่อน

      𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭𝐬𝐚𝐩𝐩𝕟𝕦𝕞𝕓𝕖𝕣🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸±𝟭𝟮𝟴𝟭𝟯𝟭𝟳𝟱𝟭𝟰𝟬🇺🇸⊥👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾👍🏾✴️✴️大家都是这样💯❤️❤️❤️❤️

  • @gachamaddie346
    @gachamaddie346 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I love your content, but it's hard to listen to your aaaa and uhhh's.

  • @choising4767
    @choising4767 หลายเดือนก่อน

    hihi

  • @chris-p6o7x
    @chris-p6o7x หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Why are you worrying about MSTR? No one cares. This is about bitcoin and stacking more.

  • @dsflat6785
    @dsflat6785 หลายเดือนก่อน

    When corporations do a MSTR, pumping their own stock by holding Meme coins in corporate reserves it's going to get bonkers 🤪
    Hoppy 🐸

  • @mosheyevadien
    @mosheyevadien หลายเดือนก่อน

    Just watched your video discussing XAI25N and I am very excited about this

  • @AlmonteList
    @AlmonteList หลายเดือนก่อน

    Future results are predictable by future actions

  • @Gumbit212
    @Gumbit212 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Listen to Fred and Giovanni , powerlaw is the nature’s law and bitcoin is growing like a living organism!

    • @globalpropertyinvestment
      @globalpropertyinvestment หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Fred has blocked Giovanni now, due to some of Gio's outbursts. I think he still believes in the power law though. Just strange the way things turn out.

    • @Gumbit212
      @Gumbit212 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@globalpropertyinvestment oh what happened?

  • @Eulaliatiet
    @Eulaliatiet หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    My investment portfolios are Bitcoin, ETH and XAI25N

  • @timecone57
    @timecone57 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Mstr will go to nav 0.75 in bear. Possibly earlier if sec makes infinite money glitch illegal. Mstr drop 60% will be sign the bear market is for sure

  • @miladavies82
    @miladavies82 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Thanks for the advice! Got XAI25N, feeling bullish! 🚀

  • @RALPHSorrell-c9f
    @RALPHSorrell-c9f หลายเดือนก่อน

    Yes, we are already over the deadline for those currencies, but luckily, there are still some options available, such as INFTY3 Token.

  • @joshua9kfu
    @joshua9kfu หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great analysis! Got a 10% profit in one week from your last video, OMG!!! Im thinking about investing in XAI25N, DOGE, and SOL. What’s your take on these? XAI25N seems like a strong choice, but I’d love your feedback.

  • @rosabella74nr
    @rosabella74nr หลายเดือนก่อน

    💖 Big thanks for the insights into XAI25N and SUI. Both seem like solid picks for the future 💖

  • @XiomaraRowland-e3q
    @XiomaraRowland-e3q หลายเดือนก่อน

    INFTY3 Token is rewriting the rules of crypto!

  • @MonKevin-d5coeurkevin
    @MonKevin-d5coeurkevin หลายเดือนก่อน

    XAI25N is still extremely undervalued

  • @DARINGalloway
    @DARINGalloway หลายเดือนก่อน

    INFTY3 Token's community is developing rapidly. It's a testament to its potential.