Mike Kofman and Rob Lee on the West’s Aid to Ukraine, and the Debate Over Red Lines and Escalation
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 16 ก.ย. 2024
- This week, Max and Maria were joined by military analysts Michael Kofman and Rob Lee to discuss the latest phase of the war in Ukraine. Max and Maria asked them for their thoughts on the ongoing Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, and whether or not this seizure of Russian territory by Kyiv exposes Russian threats of escalation as hollow. If they are hollow, does that mean Western "red lines" on certain kinds of aid to Ukraine should be reassessed?
"Ukraine's Gamble: The Risks and Rewards of the Offensive Into Russia's Kursk Region (www.foreignaff...) " by Michael Kofman and Rob Lee (September 2, 2024 in Foreign Affairs)
Mike kofman and Rob Lee, best top analysts in Russia-Ukraine war, excellent experts of military Strategist, extraordinary and incredibly amazing discussions, I'm impressed and confident to their analysis, thank you very much for bringing such great experts.
I have a soft spot for Kofman, mainly because he’s got that childish optimism about “America the Great”. It’s cute. I felt sorry for him in the interview with John Mearsheimer and Rebeccah Heinrichs on PBS. Both he and Rebecca looked like kids being explained that the world isn’t as their notebooks suggested.
I found it funny when Mearsheimer suggested that the West doesn’t have the physical weapons to give Ukraine. And 7 months on JM seems right. Mike suggested Ukraine just needs to hold on to 2025. Thats laughable. “Just hold on!” This again was 7 months ago. Rebecca baulked at JM’s suggestion that Ukraine had older soldiers and had massive draft dodgers. But I just watched a BBC report that suggested this was indeed reality.
So I like Mike, but it’s often like listening to a freshman try and tell you the meaning of life. It’s cute
@@tofatofa472 Whats cute is anyone who thinks offensive realism is anything other than a completely illogical theory without an ounce of quantitative or qualitative evidence to back it up. Fortunately its already fallen apart under scrutiny multiple times so we dont even have to do that.
Almost as cute as taking Mershaimer seriously after he blamed the west for Putins invasions, then claimed Putin would never invade Ukraine, then claimed Putin didnt want to take Kiev; all while taking money from the Валдай Group where Putin is a regular feature.
Shill elsewhere please.
@@2639theboss Maybe you're right bro.
Although John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism is respected as a credible theory, even by those who don’t agree with it. Folks like Stephen Walt, Robert Jervis, and Francis Fukuyama-who hold different views-acknowledge that his ideas help explain why great powers act aggressively in a competitive, anarchic world. Historical examples like Napoleon’s France, Imperial Germany before WWI, and the Soviet Union’s expansion after WWII all pretty much back up his argument that states often seek dominance to ensure their security. Some people disagree.
As for Mearsheimer’s ties to the Valdai Group, it's pretty standard for academics to participate in international forums. Big names like Joseph Nye and Henry Kissinger have done the same with similar groups hosted by other nations. This kind of involvement doesn’t compromise their integrity or their analysis-it’s just part of how scholars engage with global issues.
But let's do this. At the end of it all we'll tally up the dead bodies on either side and see who was correct. But I'll bet you that it'll be Russian and Ukrainian bodies not Western bodies.
To be honest my stock portfolio has enjoyed this war. I'm sorta feeling guilty about it but I just can't help but love the fact that Ukrainian's are dying and I'm getting fatter and wealthier siting safely in a Western country. Plus, John keeps going on (since the early days) about how the Ukrainian's should negotiate a peace deal to avoid the dastardly reality of war with a hard country like Russia. What an idiot he is!?
But if they listened to his realism logic, how could my kids get their comfortable inheritance? My LMT, NOC and RTX positions are pretty stable. Thanks to figures like Nancy Pelosi, Michael Kofman, and Senators Lindsey Graham and Mitch McConnell agreeing that supporting Ukraine is a smart way to weaken Russia without U.S. troops getting involved directly. They all see this as a cheaper, safer alternative to a larger NATO-Russia conflict. I tend to agree; Ukrainian hemoglobin is much cheaper than UK, Canadian hemoglobin.
John is a silly old goose to suggest that fundamentally, the US will not fight Russia and as such any war in which the US cosplay as if it will, is just the normal process of the US being the upright moral shining light on a hill. Слава Україні!
@@tofatofa472 Its absolutely not respected as a credible theory, its been thoroughly debunked at this point.
Its entirely dependent on a series of assumptions, including that states are rational actors (and therefore their leaders are as well), which have no empirical foundation and alignment with historical or current realities.
And again per his own disclosures, hes funded by the Валкай group which might explain why he pushes a narrative the kremlin finds useful.
@@tofatofa472Mearsheimer was born in NYC; Kofman was born in Kiev/Kyiv. As any immigrant, Kofman can’t afford to be honest and sceptical about his new homeland. Mearsheimer knows the US wasn’t born yesterday, it was never perfect, and that in itself never prevented the US from outperforming other nations. Hence John says: do what makes sense with ideally less blood spilled, while Kofman wants to win at any cost for the sake of imaginary ideals
Excited for this one
As discussed ad infinitum the benefits morph. Russian targets, once valid, lose validity as they are moved out of range. Imagine if the authorization was delivered in a TIMELY manner? How many aircraft launching missiles today would otherwise have been unavailable to conduct such a strike because they were destroyed a year ago. Or more. There's been no coherent, strategically-aligned supply of weapons. We've certainly been abject failures at forecasting need and pre-emptively providing such.
Soooo terribly slow for the arsenal of democracy. Sorry but too true.
What frickin' "escalation" are we talking about? Everything was pretty darn well escalated from the beginning -- short of suicidal behavior by the regime in Moscow.
Attacking theaters full of civilians, destroying apartment complexes and hospitals and schools is full damn escalation.
your news sources have a history of extreemly high accuracy in past waaaars.
That was kind of the point that Kofman was making. Moscow hasn't been holding much back in terms of vertical escalation, so all they have left is horizontal escalation some of which we've seen already, eg. transfer of advanced weapons technology to North Korea and Iran, potentially sending weapons to bad actors in other regions like Yemen.
then don't whine when a grain ship gets hit in international waters lol
sit down, fool
no. Trading Atlanta or Chicago for Pokrovsk is escalation.
Thank you for clarifying the acronyms, and reminding us laymen what the arms type (JASAMs) are.
JASSM - Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile
Most of my Russia experts in one talk 🤩
Thank you CSIS
While describing Russia, I think you just described any average Western country there.. where people are ok with war and global supremacy as long as it doesn't affect them directly. Russia is just like any western country.. an oligarchic aggressive war-crime country with make-believe democracy. 👌👌👍
How many times has the governments in those western countries changed vs Russia.
That tells you which ones are make believe democracies.
Even though Mike plugs US arms equipment unashamedly but otherwise he is probably the best analyst in the game. Love his podcasts/ videos.
Love how he slipped in the one about think tanks.. quite a fun person. 👍❤️
Max's audio quality is quite poor. Time for a new microphone?
Micheal had a more sobering analysis of the 2023 counter-offensive progress before other people who were hesitant to call it as unsuccessful., not fulfilling its primary goals and then it's readjusted goal.
Horizontal escalation by Russia has been going on, and steadily increasing, since at least 2014, if not earlier. So restraint since the full scale invasion by Russia into Ukraine to avoid further horizontal escalation is pointless as past restraint has done nothing to tamp or halt escalation.
What a chance. What a pleasure to have this presentation. Thank You CSIS!!!
Excellent insights!
The stinginess with the Abrams makes more sense than the Bradleys. MBTs have not enabled mobility and maneuver well. The Bradley has become a super star in Ukraine, and we are already planning to replace the Bradley.
So if artillery is a good fundamental to spend in and advanced equipment is heavily curtailing the amount of basics we can provided, what should be the next step after we get 155 production up? What's the next DIB revival project that has duel use in Ukraine in the immediate future and USA readiness long term?
Biden, Sullivan, weak responses. Too little too late. War is dynamic, many lost opportunities. Don't know how long they can stay and how far they can go in Kursk. However it can have a political effect on Russia. Lack of policy objectives from NATO, Pax Americana. AGM 158 system is a good idea to supply, but all ranges to stop logistics in the rear.
Hi from Russia. We are also escalate incrementaly. "Weak response" - that's why Kiev not in ruins yet.
"Political effect" - only in opposite direction. People are really tired of our own "weak responses". Kremlin propagandists barely hold the line.
The numbers don't add up. They start with 700,000. losses are only 30,000. And now don't have enough for an offensive?
Those 30000 were the specially specialty special forces
Interesting how he talked about the 'incursions' into Russia over the last year. He thinks they were done to draw RUS forces, so UKR could conduct their offensive down south. I dont' think that had anything to do with it.
I think the main reason those incursions were conducted was to make RUS think 'oh it's just another useless attack, it doesn't amount to much'--- cause UKR knew at some point the incursions would be real. And they didn't want RUS forces to send reinforcements immediately. I think the KURSK offensive was drawn up over a year ago, specifically when the high ups in the UKR military started publicly talking about UKR not having enough troops. Whey would they do that? Why would they give that crucial info to their RUS enemy? Answer: cause it was all part of the plan. The second UKR military said 'not enough troops', every single western analyst and media took up that talking point. Ever single one. And those analysts convinces themselves and their audience that UKR didn't have the troops to launch anything until 2025.
Not having enough troops, and useless raids in Russia for over a year lulled Russia into a sense of safety and security. Until, boom. There are multiple, heavily equipped brigades now gaining fast ground in Russia. And Russia was so caught off guard they couldn't do a thing about it. No other military on earth knows Russia as well as the Ukrainians, and no one else on earth does mindf'ery games like Budanov. It was beautiful to watch.
Invading certain points along Russian frontiers is pretty easy.
Even Hamas terrorists with bare minimum weapons and outside help managed to breach Israel's borders. Ukraine has satellite images and intelligence of the entire NATO behind it.
Tx
NATO & US need to learn the leason Ukrainian defense production learned and start replicting there fleets of light cheap strike (kamakazi drones) capability in mass amd focus on turning out stuff like that which are probably easier to scale. As for the vehicles like the bradley, they need to do the same with smaller lighter and cheaper unammed repicas of that capability.
And against whom will jato fight a near peer to peer land war without air superiority? Also, if ukr can make these things in a few years while being bombed, pretty sure the US can do it bigger, better and faster if needed. In the meantime, jato can focus on ramping up production of weapons not so easily built....
Russia's red lines can be ignored until it cannot. That will likely happen if Russia feels it will lose.
Ukraine never had a chance, it is either Russia wins or everybody loses.
What evidence do you have that it is “likely”?
@@MrShikagaput yourself in their shoes is the best evidence.
Russia meant Each One of their Red Lines. But seeing the excessive power of NATO and West they were forced to withdraw & suppress their outrage and drink the poison of accepting unacceptable situations each time. It's not something which they have not recorded as injustices to be resolved at suitable times.
@@jusmeetsingh1907 Sure, but that's evidence that they DO ignore their red lines. Their is no evidence so far that "losing" (retreating to their pre-2022 borders) would be treated as a red line requiring total war.
@@MrShikaga the evidence is annexation of the land
Russia is a country. It can't feel. Putin can feel he is losing, but that does not mean people around him feel so. So far it seems majority of Russians are supporting the war, but not willing to participate in it or suffer from it if only for really good money. Also, there are plenty of people around Putin who can benefit a lot from arresting\killing him and these things happened in Russia before many times.
Aside from that Russia losing is just them being unable to lower Ukraine's defensive capability and having to withdraw from Ukraine. It is unlikely that such event will trigger some major reactions among Russians. Russia's propagandists warmonger for years, but Russian society has been so depoliticized by absence of real political life that it mostly ignores those shrieks.
So, yeah. Things are a little more complicated than you state in your comment.
Every time I see Putin’s advisors, I think it can’t get more incompetent than that. Then I hear DC warmonger think tanks, and I realize there’s a whole other universe of pompous and verbose incompetence
So much gratitude! The ‘western partners’ love these messages, keep it up Taras
@@captainahab9602 who gives a F about “western partners”? I have family and friends both in UA and RU. If not for your warmongers, this butchery would’ve already stopped 2.5 years ago. In fact, it would’ve been settled back in 2004 without UA losing any territory and no war whatsoever
Enlighten us oh so clever bot
Tell us how it really is
Please
...warmonger think tanks
Hey 1993 called it wants its idiot conspiracy theory back!😂
Very enlightening Ivan!
Hmm, well at least the RU bots here can string proper sentences and arguments together, but still incredibly disappointing to see their prevalence even here.
You should have asked how they comment the fact that Ukrainians said 4 different things why they advanced in Kursk: first Zelensky said it was the negotiation chip, then he said they were establishing a buffer zone for Sumy, than Sirsky said it was to pull Russian troops, and in the end they said it was to upset Russian staging to attack in Khrakiv region. I have again to protest against Marias questions, they dont make any sense.
None of those things is mutually exclusive with the rest
30:00 it is very simple, Washington does not want Russia to _really_ lose because Russia would never forgive America for that, and America will need Russia to deal with China when it becomes a Megapower down the line. So America helps Ukraine when Ukraine is doing badly, but the help tails off when Ukraine is doing well. The idea is for Russia to get discouraged and desist.
Oh ffs, that old trope!
@@chocolate_squiggle Trope is something unrealistic. The trope was the Chinese could not grow to rival the US without introducing democracy and free markets. China has already greatly exceeded expectations of how big and advanced its industrial and economic power could grow, and the US is currently trying to slow China' s growth down.
China's demography means they will never become a mega power.
They peaked 15 years ago
Currently we see a cumulative effect of an attrition strategy implemented by Russians. For a long time it seems nothing changes on the map, but then we see rapid collapse. "The main object of operations should not be the territory, but the enemy's army. If the army runs out, the territory will come by itself. " Helmut von Moltke Senior. This war proved once more that old Moltke was right. Zelenskyy troops in Pokrovsk area (Pokrovsk is a key logistical hub that Zelenskyy is about to lose) mostly consist of hapless cannon fodder kidnapped off the streets. They are totally disorganized and demoralized. At this point unconditional surrender is the only practical solution for Ukraine. Hitler's Germany also refused to admit defeat until Hitler killed himself, then Keitel signed unconditional surrender.
How many rubles do you get per month?
@@ropeburnsrussellNothing! The people he watches on TH-cam get paid!
Zelensky is such a good presendent he doesn't need any more elections.
@@ropeburnsrussellhopefully more than you.
@@allydea I dont get any money from Putin, thankyou for pointing that out.