A Better Investment Choice: Cyclical Sectors
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.ค. 2024
- The recent aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve caused a crisis in some super-regional banks, but the damage has been contained and has not affected the entire banking industry. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell believes that the economic toll of such aggressive tightening could be different this time.
Savita Subramanian, Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy at BofA Global Research, also shares this opinion and recommends stocks over bonds and cyclical sectors over defensive ones, contrary to most institutional investors surveyed by BofA.
Subramanian has been named a top-ranked analyst by Institutional Investor for the last 10 years and to Barron’s list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance for the past three years.
#federalreserve #interestrates #cyclicals #quantitativeeasing #stockmarket
00:00 Hello
00:47 Introduction
02:35 Interview with Savita Subramanian
22:15 One Investment
24:40 Action Point
WEALTHTRACK episode 1946, broadcast on May 12, 2023
More Info: wealthtrack.com/why-owning-st...
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Thank you for sharing
The Financial Industrial Complex will always tell you what they want you to hear, which is often not what you need to hear.
Great interview thanks!!
Always great guests and great information. A life raft in a financially stormy world. Thanks Consuelo
Outstanding. And I can't wait for David next week.
"Large banks looking a lot healthier" - If so why are BOFA, JPM, and WFC still paying 0% for Checking and Savings interest rates? As that's the only way they can simply earn several tens of billions in interest. It's a real pity that US Consumers are foolishly keeping money in those checking accounts.
Savita is very good! I follow her closely.
Yes
What a FANTASTIC guest-- thank you !!
Agree on 90% of this
Care to elaborate?
Rethinking sounds a lot like active management.
corporate america has been able to maintain the margins not because they are smart or have become magically more productive rather American consumer has been taking the increases of their product prices.
Monetary inflation floats all boats....
If stocks are so unloved, why are CAPE ratios so historically high? High CAPE ratios tells me that stocks are loved beyond their earnings merit.
*Re: Jerome Powell's "This time it’s different" Thesis*
The fiscal turmoil in the *regional banking* sector has been the root cause for the *dramatic* volatility with these commodities. Once the banking volatility subside-s, e.g. the short seller's go back into hibernation, the market-s will stabilize. The short seller's have *unmercifully* driven down this sector. A rebalance for both natural gas & oil will be ongoing once the *final* SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) draw down has been realized.
*Crude Oil/Sweet & Sour*
*US* WTI trading range: 67.00 - 86.00
*UK* Brent: 69.00 - 92.00
My only disagreement with Savita is: There will be *no* rate cut-s for 2023.
Regards -
“I think this all bullish and bearish”.
Haha. Thanks for going out on that limb for us.
@17:56… straight from the VP school of public speaking!
*Re: Jerome Powell's "This time it’s different" Thesis*
Jerome originally proposed this thesis. Savita is simply on board with Jerome's earlier position. This simply implies this *is not* going to be your *ordinary* garden variety recession with regards to portfolio allocation-s. Energy has already been priced in @ recessionary levels-s by the 2022 lows. PE''s for energy equities are or near *single* digit-s. Utilities on the other hand are rather *richly* priced. Healthcare balance sheets are overleveraged.
Regards-
CapEx could be inflationary and Fed tried to hike against it. Corporate only took the medicine Feb prescribed so the inflation slowed down.
The question is whether active sector rotation strategies are worth it in a taxable account. It’s one thing to outperform indexes in tax defered accounts, to do so on an aftertax basis in regular accounts is hard.
Thanks for this, but when someone says “this time it’s different”, I recommend you run away.
Exactly. She's in retail and has to say it.
@@BathshebaE1
The fiscal turmoil in the *regional banking* sector has been the root cause for the *dramatic* volatility with these commodities. Once the banking volatility subside-s, e.g. the short seller's go back into hibernation, the market-s will stabilize. The short seller's have *unmercifully* driven down this sector. A rebalance for both natural gas & oil will be ongoing once the *final* SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) draw down has been realized.
*Crude Oil/Sweet & Sour*
*US* WTI trading range: 67.00 - 86.00
*UK* Brent: 69.00 - 92.00
My only disagreement with Savita is: *no* rate cut-s for 2023.
Regards -
*Re: Jerome Powell's "This time it’s different"* Thesis
Jerome originally proposed this thesis. Savita is simply on board with Jerome's earlier position.
This simply implies this *is not* going to be your *ordinary* garden variety recession with regards to portfolio allocation-s. Energy has already been priced in @ recessionary levels-s by the 2022 lows. PE''s for energy equities are or near *single* digit-s. Utilities on the other hand are rather *richly* priced. Healthcare is overly leveraged.
The fiscal turmoil in the *regional banking* sector has been the root cause for the *dramatic* volatility with these commodities. Once the banking volatility subside-s, e.g. the short seller's go back into hibernation, the market-s will stabilize. The short seller's have *unmercifully* driven down this sector. A rebalance for both natural gas & oil will be ongoing once the *final* SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) draw down has been realized.
*Crude Oil/Sweet & Sour*
*US* WTI trading range: 67.00 - 86.00
*UK* Brent: 69.00 - 92.00
My only disagreement with Savita is: *no* rate cut-s for 2023.
Regards -
Her macro analysis is more of a “hope.”
"The consumer actually looks healthier" BS. Credit Card debt is at a level similar to the federal debt: all time highs. This is a Jim Cramer, but much prettier and doesn't yell. "90% of homeowners have fixed rate (lower) mortgages"... that is the death blow for REDFIN, Century 21, etc. And commercial real estate.. in a coma.
Rates should be 15%
She's a contrarian. At the beginning of the year she was pitching Energy and now is the opposite
.................... *Incorrect* . Watch the video in it's entirety.
Regards-
Imo as long as US energy policy is fighting traditional energy, while the rest of the world continues to grow with incredible energy demand, I think for the next 5 years at least energy is still a good investment.
@@HermannTheGreat The data tells you otherwise.
@@tastypymp1287 Which data
@@HermannTheGreat The data that shows how the energy sector has not only underperformed the growth in M2 money supply and personal consumer expenditure over the past 20 years, but has underperformed most other sectors overall.
Consumers don't want to pay much for energy, that's a fact.
I don't see the incredible growth or demand you assert, especially as the 'agenda' is specifically geared up against it.
Fed rate-cuts for the remainder of this year? NO WAY. Powell does not want to be remembered as the Arthur Burns, of the 21st century.
Has anyone ever made a cent listening to these yappers?
No. Most of the interviews of the last year or two have been worthless or sales pitches. I remember when the one guy was pitching long bonds.. wow
@@HermannTheGreat Yea buying 10 year treasuries at .5% would be a great move. Of course these people are selling when they say buy and buying when they say sell. That is called fraud.