NVIDIA's Stock Valuation Is INSANE | Here Are the Numbers $NVDA Earnings Analysis
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 มิ.ย. 2024
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The 27% per year is deceiving. It assumes even growth. Do the math if eps is up years 1-2 say 150% and then slows to 40% for two years then 15% the remainder.
You're correct that it can be lumpy. Remember, this was based on free cash flow, not EPS. If NVDA can have two years of 150% and two years of 40%, that'd be very impressive, putting FCF at $109 BILLION (from just $17.5B today) by 2028.
Apologies for all of the errors in my first two attempts to post this. And thanks to all those who let me know the audio wasn't working & the DCF calculator had the wrong inputs!
The slight dip after earnings was a healthy regression. Hold. The future is very bright for $NVDA.
Thanks Brian.
Just to clarify, 27% growth over ten years, then hits a 3% wall thereafter?
Looking forward to seeing your 90 day update on NVIDIA!
Thoughts on AMD having a P/E ratio of 965 vs NVDA P/E ratio of 117?
That's trailing PE. Forward PE is about the same
The P/E ratio I not meaningful here. What is meaningful is predicting growth for the next 10 years.
Pay attention to AMD’s non-gaap earnings. The official p/e is misleading.
Nvda is growing rapidly with 100% growth rates, even when it slows it will go to 50%. Do not underestimate the AI revolution and do no forget who the King of AI is.
Those who think NVDA is expensive have zero clue how AI will transform industries and economies.
not expensive but priced to perfection. It will crash hard for any bad news. Some of their customers are also their biggest competitors. In 2 years, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT/AMD might have their own AI chips. Demand is being pulled forward and will decline significantly by 2025. Hedge funds are buying NVDA hiking the price up. They will sell close to ATH leaving FOMO Retail investors who buy NVDA at $500 holding the bag
My question is they have always been cyclical business. Why different now? And is there really no competition coming in a few years? Eventually AWS met Azure.
@northraptor competition in hardware is a lot different than software, and both azure and aws are doing a good job.
I do agree that nvda must get footprint in software for recurring revenue, which I know they are working hard on.
The logic here is next level, guys. Only a few ppl in the world can explain a valuation thesis with so few numbers or words.
I personally appreciate the valuation talks you are adding to your channel. People really do get screwed by going into something exciting without having at least some level of understanding of the math that is required to make that investment worthwhile. If people believe the projections, they can go right ahead and buy; but without framing it out like this, one is vulnerable to making decisions based on FOMO. There are countless examples of companies with blistering growth rates that have gone through the double whammy of declining revenue and multiple contraction, crushing the stock. Not saying this is absolutely Nvidia's fate, but it doesn't hurt to think it through.
What happened to Enphase and SolarEdge can happen to Nvidia. Maybe it doesn't. But it wouldn't be a surprise.
Nvidia operates in a completely different segment and industry than those 2 companies
What happens to Nvidia can happen to Nvidia then. Semiconductors have always been cyclical.@@themusic6808
funny thing is, earnings have gone up from 88cents to 4 dollars and the PE ratio still shows 120 on all finance web sites
got hedge funds buying billions of dollars worth of chips, and meanwhile, computer sales are down the last 2 quarters... this stock is so manipulated I will laugh when these people all go to jail.
I want to see your chart again now with nvidia at $610, the growth YOY may need to be 45%
32 forward
Should be lower than 32. If the next 3 qtrs have the same earning as this qtr. it would be 16 dollars. The pe would be 32. But next qtr is substantially higher already. Let’s say the next year earning is 18 dollars, that would give pe 27.
Nvidia right now is like Microsoft in 1990 at the beginning of the personal computing revolution. They have an absolutely dominant marketshare and are a critical piece of this rapid change that everything will be built around and off the back of, and very few can compete with them.
So what is the right price to get NVDA?
$220-$250
$150 set your limit price
1000$ per share
Can you guys please run FICO through your framework every person in American has a fico score not much on the stocks Absolute run
4 post quarter earnings total is 8.67 dollars which makes the current pe 12mo trailing = 55 😂 (not 120)
when this fiscal year ends for nvdia in may, their yearly earnings will be 16.6 dolars, (versus 2.7 previous year), at this price nvdia's PE will be 29
Other words, in may, with earnings of 16.6 dollars per year, a PE of 50 would make the stock price $830
I have been crushed last 2 earnings expecting the market to appreciate NVDIA, come may, things will all change
Why the all called Brian's
strick hiring criteria
Up over $100 in a month $nvda pt $450
NVDA was priced beyond perfection. So naturally, the stock dropped even as it reported a great quarter. Valuation matters!
It's down slightly because it was expected news. I'm feeling a bit provoked by this video. You and Brian spent years promoting stocks with insane valuations with the defense that they were not possible to value ordinarily. And now, the last year or so, you have turned completely around and are complaining on valuation like its "common sense". Well, nvidia has insane growth prospects. That's why the valuation is insane. It's understandable. I have heard countless of normally very conservative fund managers ALL say that they expect this growth from nvidia. So perhaps you should return to your old self instead of warning people against the stock.
It's obvious, lots of people missed the $122 price point back in late 2022
Now they're pessimistic on its growth. The only solution now is to join the bears club
I totally see where you are coming from, but they have explained more than once why they have decided to start paying more attention to valuation. In my opinion, they've done their mea culpas. Many more well known investors who were touting their successes in 2020/2021 haven't been willing to talk about how they are still learning and growing.
@@joshuabrist9333 They have done a complete u-turn though.. it's not merely adapting and learning.
100% agree. they've been in a lot of overvalued, dogshit stocks so knocking nvda as overvalued is laughable when the valuation has actually gotten cheaper and more reasonable on a forward basis
If a number is up 300% that is. not a tripling of revenue. It is a quadrupling. If you have 100 hats and make 100 more you have 200 and your inventory is up 100%. It has doubled. If you make a further 100 you have a total of 300 and your inventory is up 200% from the base. If you make yet another 100 you have a total of 400 and your inventory is up 300%. At 300% you have QUADRUPLED your original 100 hats. Think.
Who are you talking to? The YT said it correctly many times, and just once he fluked. Clearly, he knows how it works.
Your fundamental analysis is great, but your chart reading skills is like bottom tier. This stock has $700 written all over it.
This comment has aged extremely well.
@@kevinrosenberg8146 thank you sir🫡
I bought this bad boy last year at 114 and sold at 167. I regret it but I bought back again last week at 483. I think it still has room to run and totally disagree with this video.
Current cycle projected high 20th-24th....insiidetrack