"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mindbogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space." Even if the galaxy is full of life, because it's so damn big, the closest aliens might be 500 light years away.
thanx for the upload, i would not know what to do with my brain without those cool seti lectures every now and then. other scientific fields and topics included of course. about intelligent life, i guess we'll have to wait this one out for now, but at least for me, it's just a matter of time. i can wait, with seti looking out for me, it''ll happen..**
Yes you can find life in hot springs, in Antarctica, in acid water, in ocean vents, however all this life most likely evolved from from other life or algae. Thus it is very possible to have 10000s or even 1000000s of water planets with no life.
Do we consider the possibility that many planets may have subsurface multi-cellular life and that surface life might be an exception more than the rule?
The zone for complex intelligent life is probably very narrow. The Earth nearly became a snowball several times during its history suggesting it is at the outer limit for complex life. If the earth was 5% closer to Sol a runway greenhouse is likely. Worst a recent French paper indicates the earth only has a magnetic field due to the moon preventing the earths core cooling down due to tidal stresses from the moon. (300 C cooling with a moon instead of 3000 C without) This implies only tidally stressed planets would survive with complex life, twin planets, gas giant moons, and planets with giant moons like our own. (In other words if you can't find moons, you can't tell whether a planet is a candidate for complex life.) If the belief a planets magnet field is proportional to its spin rate is true, all tidally locked planets can be ignored: they would lack the magnet field needed to protect against solar storms, eliminating all the major planets of red dwarfs. (Moons of gas giants would still be a possibility) Additionally humanity is by no means the only life form with a brain suitable for intelligence, elephants have bigger brains than humans, and if it weren't for our chimp like ancestors losing several chromosomes, their brain size and complexity would not have increased. Elephants would be the dominant land intelligence. (Woolly mammoths would be the leaders.) Orca are known to have brains with both greater complexity and size than humans. (Roughly speaking their brain complexity over a human is great as a humans over a chimpanzee. It is small wonder they are doing rather well during the current changes in climatic conditions.) PS He doesn't mention the habitable zone of the galaxy because the lecture is about the 2013 methods for finding planets about stars, none of which can see planets more than 1000 light years away. They are all in this zone of our galaxy.
Dude seriously, look up AdBlock Plus. It changed my life on TH-cam. It is free, good for your computer, and you will never see another ad unless you search for it and click on it.
In case you'd like to know how the planned telescope at the Lick observatory that Dr. Marcy describes has worked out, see: news.ucsc.edu/2014/03/apf-telescope.html
Dr. Marcy suggested the odds against intelligent life on an earth-like planet might be a million to one. Sure, we're here; but, the dinosaurs existed for a couple of hundred million years; fossils are relatively easy to find - and yet there is no evidence of so much as a dinosaur-made can opener. I'd say the chances of intelligent life are more like one species per galaxy at any given time. Still, that leaves a hundred billion or so NOW in our universe. Sadly, we'll never meet them or know anything about them. Alas, this is life in a fish bowl.
I have a question for Dr. Marcy, I've seen documentaries, etc. of his early days when no one in the academic world thought you could ever discover planets around distant stars and he was on a fools errand. He was literally begging for grants in the Hundreds of dollars to continue his research. Now that he's a celebrated bona-fide scientist lecturing great halls does he ever get the urge to raise his hands and go "Nan-na-nan-na-naa-naaa"!
This is the central misunderstanding in all considerations of finding the possible number of civilizations in our galaxy and beyond. As here in this presentation, the search for a civilization is performed with devices based on the electromagnetic spectrum. Which is understandable. But also totally misses the point. Nothing, and nothing at all, indicates that the technology, based on the electromagnetic spectrum, is more than a transitional technology. Just as it was the technique of acoustic communication using drums. And the technique of optical communication using fire signs. We can see very clearly the limitations of the technology we are currently mastering, which makes use of the electromagnetic spectrum. Slow, powerless, not focusable. Not at all suitable for wide range communication. Yes, the detection and proof of an overflowing abundance of planets - throughout our galaxy - is making great progress. Finding possible residents, however, requires procedures that are suitable for this. Far beyond today's technology, which makes use of the electromagnetic spectrum. What has so far been sufficient for the use and the needs of our planetary realm. Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator
Perhaps the galactic civilization around us has rules forbidding interference in worlds that don't have the technology and culture to join as equals. Aliens wouldn't need to be too much more advanced than us to be undetectable with our technology.
No, civilization, much less science and advanced technology, is not necessarily inevitable even given intelligence. I'd wager that most intelligent species remain primitive their whole existence.
I lost respect for this guy at 51:30 when he gauges the number of intelligent life in the galaxy. He skips waaay too many steps! For instance not all planetary systems contain a rocky planet, not all rocky planets are in the Goldilocks zone, not all rocky planets in the habitable zone do actually have liquid water and an atmosphere, and so on and on. And even if there are plenty of civilizations like ours in the galaxy how can we get in touch if we are (very probably) thousands of light years apart? IMO this lecturer is more wishful sci-fi and not enough grasp of the physics of space time.
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"Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mindbogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to space."
Even if the galaxy is full of life, because it's so damn big, the closest aliens might be 500 light years away.
Excellent talk from a world class communicator
thanx for the upload, i would not know what to do with my brain without those cool seti lectures every now and then. other scientific fields and topics included of course. about intelligent life, i guess we'll have to wait this one out for now, but at least for me, it's just a matter of time. i can wait, with seti looking out for me, it''ll happen..**
Yes you can find life in hot springs, in Antarctica, in acid water, in ocean vents, however all this life most likely evolved from from other life or algae. Thus it is very possible to have 10000s or even 1000000s of water planets with no life.
Do we consider the possibility that many planets may have subsurface multi-cellular life and that surface life might be an exception more than the rule?
Some corrections: 6:55 "as it seems to be" should be as it is.
The zone for complex intelligent life is probably very narrow. The Earth nearly became a snowball several times during its history suggesting it is at the outer limit for complex life. If the earth was 5% closer to Sol a runway greenhouse is likely.
Worst a recent French paper indicates the earth only has a magnetic field due to the moon preventing the earths core cooling down due to tidal stresses from the moon. (300 C cooling with a moon instead of 3000 C without) This implies only tidally stressed planets would survive with complex life, twin planets, gas giant moons, and planets with giant moons like our own. (In other words if you can't find moons, you can't tell whether a planet is a candidate for complex life.)
If the belief a planets magnet field is proportional to its spin rate is true, all tidally locked planets can be ignored: they would lack the magnet field needed to protect against solar storms, eliminating all the major planets of red dwarfs. (Moons of gas giants would still be a possibility)
Additionally humanity is by no means the only life form with a brain suitable for intelligence, elephants have bigger brains than humans, and if it weren't for our chimp like ancestors losing several chromosomes, their brain size and complexity would not have increased. Elephants would be the dominant land intelligence. (Woolly mammoths would be the leaders.)
Orca are known to have brains with both greater complexity and size than humans. (Roughly speaking their brain complexity over a human is great as a humans over a chimpanzee. It is small wonder they are doing rather well during the current changes in climatic conditions.)
PS
He doesn't mention the habitable zone of the galaxy because the lecture is about the 2013 methods for finding planets about stars, none of which can see planets more than 1000 light years away. They are all in this zone of our galaxy.
Terrific lecture; technology a bit dated but well worth the price for the details of how the data is analyzed.
www.nytimes.com/2015/10/15/science/geoffrey-marcy-to-resign-from-berkeley-astronomy-department.html
Very interesting lecture
no adverts fantastic
Dude seriously, look up AdBlock Plus. It changed my life on TH-cam. It is free, good for your computer, and you will never see another ad unless you search for it and click on it.
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In case you'd like to know how the planned telescope at the Lick observatory that Dr. Marcy describes has worked out, see:
news.ucsc.edu/2014/03/apf-telescope.html
9:40 I disagree with him there. If there was a species of dolphin-like intelligence in the ocean of Enceladus, we wouldn't see them.
Dr. Marcy suggested the odds against intelligent life on an earth-like planet might be a million to one. Sure, we're here; but, the dinosaurs existed for a couple of hundred million years; fossils are relatively easy to find - and yet there is no evidence of so much as a dinosaur-made can opener. I'd say the chances of intelligent life are more like one species per galaxy at any given time. Still, that leaves a hundred billion or so NOW in our universe. Sadly, we'll never meet them or know anything about them. Alas, this is life in a fish bowl.
I have a question for Dr. Marcy, I've seen documentaries, etc. of his early days when no one in the academic world thought you could ever discover planets around distant stars and he was on a fools errand. He was literally begging for grants in the Hundreds of dollars to continue his research. Now that he's a celebrated bona-fide scientist lecturing great halls does he ever get the urge to raise his hands and go "Nan-na-nan-na-naa-naaa"!
This is the central misunderstanding in all considerations
of finding the possible number of civilizations in our galaxy
and beyond.
As here in this presentation, the search for a civilization
is performed with devices based on the electromagnetic
spectrum.
Which is understandable. But also totally misses the point.
Nothing, and nothing at all, indicates that the technology,
based on the electromagnetic spectrum, is more than
a transitional technology. Just as it was the technique
of acoustic communication using drums. And the technique
of optical communication using fire signs.
We can see very clearly the limitations of the technology
we are currently mastering, which makes use of the
electromagnetic spectrum. Slow, powerless, not focusable.
Not at all suitable for wide range communication.
Yes, the detection and proof of an overflowing abundance
of planets - throughout our galaxy - is making great progress.
Finding possible residents, however, requires procedures
that are suitable for this. Far beyond today's technology,
which makes use of the electromagnetic spectrum.
What has so far been sufficient for the use and the needs of our planetary realm.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator
Perhaps the galactic civilization around us has rules forbidding interference in worlds that don't have the technology and culture to join as equals. Aliens wouldn't need to be too much more advanced than us to be undetectable with our technology.
Do we "know" the universe consists of dark matter? I thought this was and still is a unproven hypothesis.
No, civilization, much less science and advanced technology, is not necessarily inevitable even given intelligence. I'd wager that most intelligent species remain primitive their whole existence.
I lost respect for this guy at 51:30 when he gauges the number of intelligent life in the galaxy. He skips waaay too many steps! For instance not all planetary systems contain a rocky planet, not all rocky planets are in the Goldilocks zone, not all rocky planets in the habitable zone do actually have liquid water and an atmosphere, and so on and on. And even if there are plenty of civilizations like ours in the galaxy how can we get in touch if we are (very probably) thousands of light years apart? IMO this lecturer is more wishful sci-fi and not enough grasp of the physics of space time.
worst doppler effect impersonation ever.
dinky hahahah
why so long just skip to the point jeez no one wants to sit here for an hour and a half