Tour 14 (two cities) and i found a australium medigun and a professional scattergun. So I think, I played a draw. But unfortunately I sold de aussie medigun when it was less expensive. Like 25 keys and now its 40. And I wanna buy it back. But I can't find it anymore. I sold it so quickly to a bot, that bp.tf not even notice that I found one. No history😔
I'll be 100 with you, I respect a Saxxy more than a Golden Pan just because they worked hard and earned the Saxxy. Where as the Golden Pan just means you either got lucky or have a lot of money.
@@luxxers why is money earned through trading any more valuable than money earned with any other job? trading is a job just like any other, you do it for money. 3000$ earned through tf2 trading is the same as 3000$ earned through working at mcdonalds. It doesn't make sense to think a pan bought with profits from trading is any more earned than one bought with profits from working. I'm sure the guy that has a different job and bought a pan with his salary worked hard to get it too. The only real exception to this is people that didn't work to get it but just got it due to rich parents. That sure we can agree is a bit less "earned". Still, tf2 trading is a job, a pretty risky job, but a job nonetheless. It's no different than any other job (as in you do it to make money and the money you make is the same no matter how you earned it)
GPN: Money SXY: Fame Or GPN: may have use hardwork to get that money SXY: probably told someone a story and the SFM animators do the rest And might have done the same thing lazy purple said
Fun fact: I once played on a server and almost all players left. There was only me, one Pyro in my team and the enemy. I asked on chat if they wanna be friendly and they agreed. Then me and Pyro found out that the enemy had a Golden Pan so he let us hold it. Then he left but we still held the Gloryfied Golden Pan. We were playing Spys and when he left, Golden Pan in my hands as a Spy turned normal. It was pretty strange to se a spy with a pan. And then some players joined and we somehow lost it. It was one of my most memorable TF2 moments and I hope you to get your hands on a Gold Gamers.
I once found a guy with the golden pan, somehow he died and dropped his pan, man, I was more than excited, I got a kill with the golden pan, Ill never forget that
I remember when a friend gave me a tour of 2 cities so I could play with him, while he already had around 100 tour finished, I was just for the 4th tour, they will imagine my friend's surprise when he saw me win an autralium smg.
doesnt add up, you need to play four missions to complete tour, so ~5$ for one tour, so just 2 people with 1k tours is 10k$, and yes i know what you said is joke
@@floggyWM1 i added ,,~" because don't forget that in diffrent countries you don't have $, and in case of country i live in ammount of money you spend on one tour i closer to 5 dollars than to four, it may be less than 4 dollars in other countries, but when i checked back then in most european countries it was around ~4.5$.
Personally, I always buy or trade my high class items. I’ve never met one person who asks me where my high tier items come from, really. I used to trade for a lot of aussies/pro KS items and a couple unusuals back when the economy was better, but now because it’s so fucked over I just tend to buy or unbox stuff now. It’s a lot easier and I think In a lot of cases, the prices of constantly grinding MVM or unboxing seriously outweigh the prices of buying/trading in my opinion. Of course it feels special when you inbox/grind for one, that only ever applies to you. Funnily enough I unboxed a high tier knife in CSGO a while back after having what was like a drout in good unboxes in TF2.
I got a factory new Bloodsport AK back when it first came out for CS:GO on my second crate ever unboxed, so it was like around $100. I actually regret selling it, because even though I got some good games with the money I could have traded for some good stuff for the game I actually play (TF2).
@Daniel von Strangle u could unbox spooky crates and have the common chance of gettting a mvm ticket alongside the chance of an unusual. Still isnt worth it, but hey, its tf2 RGN.
its funny how when i first started playing tf2 i commited to myself to not spend anymore than like 20 bucks on it 3 years later im nearing 1000 dollars spent and ive got nothing fancy to show for it
I personally play MVM for the good times and bot killing, the drops are a bonus, and funnily enough after 19 tours I got an aussie sniper rifle on my 9th tour, and an aussie rocket launcher on my most recent tour. Along with two professional killstreak kits for the eyelander and tide turner respectively (which I have yet to use)
Good video(despite being a bit old and the prices being out of date). Beside just raw cost of tickets vs Australium market costs you also have to consider opportunity cost of spending all those hours on MvM. If you really want Australium weapons it's easier to just get a job and make the money for one in a week or two of work rather than spending hundreds of hours getting a them via random drop.
Unless you're extremely lucky and you know you're lucky like some superpower then it's better to just buy them I'd say. Yea you could get a gold pan your first tour but you could also not get anything until the 5000th where you get a gold axtinguisher. Unless you have way too much time and money on your hands and want to pan hunt like some Pokemon shiny hunter I'd say buying or trading for the aussie you want is the best option.
As far as losing money playing MvM, you didn't mention selling the specialized/professional kill-streak kits to stay positive. It's probably different today, but back when I played (about a year after the Two Cities Update) you made up all your money you spent on tickets by selling your rewards. I had 31 tours on Two Cities.
Back when Killstreaks were new was some great times to make some quick cash. No matter what you found, the loot paid for the whole tour. I remember the first thing I found was a specialized killstreak scattergun fabricator and I sold it for $12, and it was uncrafted. Unfortunately all the loot farmers and the munition crates ruined the value of a lot of them through time.
I have around 60 tours between all the advanced and expert tours. Ive gotten 4 aussies, one of them being the gold pan on my 20th run of 2 cities. The pan is cool and all but like squirelly said everyone freaks out and tries to kill you, which just gets tiring after a while, so i sold mine.
5:40 Er, I think your math is a bit off there. 0.39% chance would mean that 1 in every 256 tours would drop a golden pan. Even 0.05% would mean 1 in every 2000 tours would get a golden pan. And considering that only 188 pans exist and people have been grinding mvm since it came out, the chances are definitely far lower. I saw an estimate on reddit that said 0.0051% chance, which sounds more likely to me.
Your Math is based on the case where you get a Aussie after every Tour, you have to also calculate for the amount of Tours per aussie drop and then calculate the Pan chance ontop of the Aussie chance. In the Video, the Guy got an Aussie every ~25 Tours, thats 4% chance. 4% * 0.4% = 0.0016% chance per Tour or about 1 in 6250 Tours for a Pan drop. If we get one Pan per 6250 tours then the total amount of Tours played would be 6250*180 thats 1,125,000 completed tours or 1,125,000 * 3 Tickets * $0.8 = $2,700,000 just for Tickets (at about $0.8 each) Quite alot, given the fact that a Golden Pan costs about $3000 and you could have bought 900 of them with that. And thats if everyone played expert and not the Two City Tour that needs 1 additional ticket, that would have cost people $3,600,000 or 1200 Golden Pans. Since we only got about 180 Pans we are basically paying Valve $3,600,000 / 180 = $20000 per Golden Pan this way ($15000 on 3 tour expert) a profit margin of about x0.15 (x0.2 on expert) Now that's a good scam! This shows that it can actually be less profitable than unboxing, depending on which crate you chose. Im not Valve so these numbers are definetly not the real ones and just estimated and rounded to give you an overview of the whole topic. Take them with a grain of salt.
Completed 57 tours of 2 cities and a combined total of 4 pro ks's no Aussies ( best one was a black box) the stat of every 30 tours for an Aussie... I think its safe to say Gabe himself has it out for me. XD
I am a boi Tbh with you im not sure. i'm planning to keep it. I'm the only person with the item history of it so many people offered me 45 keys so like 90$ usd or shitty unusuals. Traders love smal item history tho
@@naufalr.9521 Depends on the weapon and ofc its history. Newer weapons gain a little over 10% more value as a general rule from what I've seen, and Aussies of main weapons like the Scattergun can sell for over £100. Weapons that are less competitive (FAN, SMG, etc.) sell for around £60-ish.
Oh, thats crazy how you showed up in my recommendations! I didn't know you were a youtuber! I keep getting connected to the same Valve servers you're on (its happened a couple of times now) and the times youve been on the opposite team you completely kick my ass :P You're a really good soldier and I like your loadout!
i got my first drop at my 4th tour and got a austrailum scattergun I then a few tours later (cant remember the exact) got a prof killstreak rocket launcher set
Just want a Medigun and Crossbow. Seeing as I'm on the edge in terms of sinking lots of money into MVM (12 total tours), think I'm better off buying them.
I have been friends with Creamy Goodness for a good while who has around that many tours as well. He and Creamy Jr (who I believe has the #1 amount of tours) play mvm quite a lot together. Definitely more of a hobby to them since with close to 5000 combined tours and 0 gold pans its a grim outcome profit-wise. MVM is quite fun and addicting so I can see why they enjoy it so much. But they are both oldschool players and collectors, so its nice to see that they haven't given up on a 12 year old game. I believe that mvm is a big factor in that.
If you plan to earn an Australium in Mann Up Mode, I'd say if you don't find something within your first 20 tours I'd probably just save or trade up for whatever you want. Otherwise, those tickets could've went towards a really nice Australium. Gaben wasn't kind enough to give me one until I reached tour 80. Some reason I find a lot of the single digit tourers usually find some of the best stuff. I suppose beginner's luck in hopes they'll keep going.
So, basically your guaranteed for buying / trading up (Which most people don't know how to start with) for it, but you lose the fun in mvm. Then there's taking a risk for playing 1,000+ mvm tours, but you enjoy the fun of playing mvm. Kinda a hard decision tbh. (There's also the rare chance anyone would even trade their pan.)
1:07 man oh man that was a good shot, back to back. Couldn't focus on what you said about should i buy one. Perfect flick, you landed on exactly where he would be estimated on the jump, real good aim and shooting dude.
I played 602 Tours on 2 Cities, i have won 21 Australiums. I also Unbox, i opened around 2000 Cases and got (with unusualifiers counted) ~278 Unusuals. (I sold all, most (not all) of my Unboxed Unusuals i screenshotted)
@@SQU1RRELLYTF2 cool, nice to hear. Btw, im still playing mvm if you also wanna do some, for like Australium Drop Compilations or so. Just feel free to reply, if youre interested.
being a part time worker I can't really afford to spend money on tf2 all that often, so I don't have many tours in MvM, that being said I just finished my 8th tour yesterday and got my first Ausy, a Strange Australium Knife, which according to my friend is pretty damn lucky.
I think mvm money should not be calculated only for the australiums, some prof and spec ks frabicators cost a decent price, some ks and a lot of robo parts end up adding some money
You're forgetting the value of entertainment for 3 dollars a tour. You get to play wave based defense TF2 for 4000 hours for about $4000 and leave with about $2000 worth of australium weapons. $1.00 an hour for entertainment is not a bad deal when you get collectibles you can keep forever too.
I got so far from what I remember: Tour 2 - Australium Minigun Tour 14 - Australium Rocket Launcher Tour 20-30 - Last Australium, dropped mvm shortly after I forgot how many tours I have but I think 33? I sold them all at this point and left tf2
But the thing is. It feels cheeper because you slowly buy tickets every now and again then just spending 40$ on an Australium + the satisfaction and excitement once you get one
@@koklu3 after i got my first killstreak fabricators, i started gathering more and more, i bought some off the steam market too, and i was waiting for the one week cooldown so i can trade (and plus i went camping) but the price of the pro killstreak bat outta hell that i crafted went down by like 5 keys, i dont know if i have made profit cus i was gonna sell it for a little less than 7 keys but now its under 2 keys, also it turns out that the tornado effect looks way cooler than flames.
1h30min on average for a tour, that means with that time he could of worked and got 1.5x11$= 16.5$ a tour x1734 tour=28611$+5735$ he spent=36346$ wasted money and got 11 golden pans
I have noticed that the pan drops when there are the most people playing simultaneously. They tend to drop Thursday, Friday, Saturday afternoon. No proof obviously but I think valve reasons that it is best for as many players as possible to see that global announcement.
True, there's lots of good conspiracies about drop-rates. Valve has used time of day before for items and someone actually cracked the code (years ago) Or it could just be that's when most people play TF2/MVM - we will never know! :P
As always, excellent video SQU1RRELLY. Thanks for all the hard work and researching for the video. I look forward to watching many more of your videos. Bird Of PrAy
To be fair when I was 10yo (9 years ago) I was playing MvM with my brother and in 30 tours I got 6 Australians, I sold em and waste that money like complete stupid kid as I was back then lmao. At least I got valuable lesson on what I should and shouldn’t spend money on
for normal aussies its probably best to just buy them if you really just want them and dont are about playing for them, but for something valueable as the golden pan its best to just play since it'll most likely cost you more to buy it than it is to get one from mvm if you're lucky
I’m 13 right now and I swear to you, one day when I get a job I’m gonna save up so much money and buy myself a golden pan. If you see this comment in a couple years time, keep spamming me about it so I remember. Thanks
Cheesecake0 I know right they say McDonald’s is the only think you can afford in college and basically all adults start thinking differently about video game stuff, but I guess I’m just at that point in teenage years where I think that when I’m an adult l buy everything I want.... until I actually become one and learn the hard way. But I think all my decisions I make in several years time depends on everything in my life. Mysterious!
my dumbass played 6 tours and got a pro medi gun kit worth like 150 dollars and sold that shit on steam for 80 and got like 60 cuse of steam tax, I could have prolly traded for a aussy scatter or sum, regret it to this day
But Squ1rrelly you forgot something important in your calculations All of those games made a profit because they had fun and got other rewards Australiums aren't the only reward
![[TF2] Weapons That SHOULD Be Australium](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/BfJdE-5L9Mk/mqdefault.jpg)
![[TF2] Weapons That SHOULD Be Australium](/img/tr.png)
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Tour 24 got a gernade launcher.
Tour 6 nothing
Tour 14 (two cities) and i found a australium medigun and a professional scattergun. So I think, I played a draw. But unfortunately I sold de aussie medigun when it was less expensive. Like 25 keys and now its 40. And I wanna buy it back. But I can't find it anymore. I sold it so quickly to a bot, that bp.tf not even notice that I found one. No history😔
1300+ tours - 28 aussies including a pan
@@despisediconunboxing9638 do you still know which tour it was? And which game mode it was of mvm
Can you be my new dad?
*NO*
*ROCKET JUMPS AWAY*
just like my dad
@@SpkyDaSc6ry Wow
Vertex *oh*
@@SpkyDaSc6ry that escalated quickly
@@SpkyDaSc6ry That's depressing as f*ck.
F
The real pro strat is waiting till the TF2 economy crashes permanently and buying one for nothing.
keep waiting then lol
.... Have fun waiting. Not gonna happen for a good long while. Plus by that point nobody will care because everyone will have one.
@@harryunderwood9387 Oh hey, it's the joke flying over your head.
@@MrPoot-ce8mn WHERE!?
looks like I didn't have to wait that long.
I'll be 100 with you, I respect a Saxxy more than a Golden Pan just because they worked hard and earned the Saxxy. Where as the Golden Pan just means you either got lucky or have a lot of money.
Kirbystar64 Or are a good trader
@@luxxers my point still stands
Agreed. While I aim to get specific Australiums, owners of Saxxys and the community weapons earn my respect without a doubt.
@@luxxers why is money earned through trading any more valuable than money earned with any other job? trading is a job just like any other, you do it for money. 3000$ earned through tf2 trading is the same as 3000$ earned through working at mcdonalds. It doesn't make sense to think a pan bought with profits from trading is any more earned than one bought with profits from working. I'm sure the guy that has a different job and bought a pan with his salary worked hard to get it too.
The only real exception to this is people that didn't work to get it but just got it due to rich parents. That sure we can agree is a bit less "earned". Still, tf2 trading is a job, a pretty risky job, but a job nonetheless. It's no different than any other job (as in you do it to make money and the money you make is the same no matter how you earned it)
GPN: Money
SXY: Fame
Or
GPN: may have use hardwork to get that money
SXY: probably told someone a story and the SFM animators do the rest
And might have done the same thing lazy purple said
Do you remember unboxing a disco beat down spartan? because i own it now and it’s history shows you were the first owner
Who asked FT.Nobody
Yeah just flex on us, very cool
Mr.Green door, he is just asking a question. no need to get mad.
@@account_name5500 mad cause broke
@@account_name5500 stfu
Mr.Green door imagine being poor
playing a tour is essentially just unboxing, but its a challenge that takes a few hours
but cheaper, more fun, and (even if it's not fully profitable) more profitable
Does every tour cost money or do u just get premium And then u can play it for as long as u want?
@@moorurr You need to pay a ticket everytime
So its not free once you get premium
@@zegnamee1228 i realize :b
@@moorurr costs money
0:58 “can you be my new dad”
*Leaves*
Perfection
Wow just like my real dad
trader aidan u good Bruh?
6:24 Heavy accepted his fate of being obliterated
I thought he was a bot
the way he exploded and flew out of the map 🤣
Bro just tried but didnt
Fun fact:
I once played on a server and almost all players left. There was only me, one Pyro in my team and the enemy. I asked on chat if they wanna be friendly and they agreed. Then me and Pyro found out that the enemy had a Golden Pan so he let us hold it. Then he left but we still held the Gloryfied Golden Pan. We were playing Spys and when he left, Golden Pan in my hands as a Spy turned normal. It was pretty strange to se a spy with a pan. And then some players joined and we somehow lost it. It was one of my most memorable TF2 moments and I hope you to get your hands on a Gold Gamers.
oh wow
The Golden Pan is imbued with 0.0003% of Gaben’s power, if you craft two together, you’ll get the next TF2 update.
fake news it's 200 combined for tf2 update
@@xenonxan184yeah bro don’t spread fake news. It takes way more than 2 pans.
@@_SSCJ ok
it'd be funny if some billionare started trading for every golden pan and then deleted them
They say that it will bring a Heavy Update
I saw him on a harvest server yesterday, almost wet myself.
dude's everywhere on west coast servers
@@smallfoot5689 no kidding
the left side boob ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Overreaction.
I once found a guy with the golden pan, somehow he died and dropped his pan, man, I was more than excited, I got a kill with the golden pan, Ill never forget that
I remember when a friend gave me a tour of 2 cities so I could play with him, while he already had around 100 tour finished, I was just for the 4th tour, they will imagine my friend's surprise when he saw me win an autralium smg.
Hey My first Aussie was a SMG too!!
@@nightthemight2985 just got that sweet sweet rocket launcher at tour 10
@@bungersinyourarea nice
my first aussie was
@@xenonxan184my first was also the
0:50 "hey guys u see this pan ?"
everyone : "no"
poor guy that was just his imagination ):
maybe every $10k profit valve makes from MvM they drop one of their wholesome pans.
doesnt add up, you need to play four missions to complete tour, so ~5$ for one tour, so just 2 people with 1k tours is 10k$, and yes i know what you said is joke
@@petrohex how did u get 5 dollars tho, its 4, mvm ticket is 1$ and u need 4 tickets to complete the tour.
@@floggyWM1 i added ,,~" because don't forget that in diffrent countries you don't have $, and in case of country i live in ammount of money you spend on one tour i closer to 5 dollars than to four, it may be less than 4 dollars in other countries, but when i checked back then in most european countries it was around ~4.5$.
Empire Lifts Back actually steam market sells it for less.
3:50 It's important to note that you make a decent amount of profit back from selling the loot you earn, which can go towards more ToD tickets.
-great trader
-great jumper
-great player
Wow
This man didn’t only lose money but he lost time just for a yellow weapon.
Haha peepee pan
shiny yellow gun
@@user-ql6kv4cu3r I have finally unlocked the toilet head with the sniping fart could unusual effect
Lost time? He enjoyed every moment of it and you know it, you cynical, joyless bot.
@@Ang3lUki your right, tf2 is always a good time
I think the most asked question that you'll get asked when you have a Golden Pan is: "Can my admin friend verify if the item isn't duped?"
Me: Good to know
Mvm: *drops me aussie minigun and pro ks in my first 2 tours*
Me: *re-evaluates what people say on TH-cam*
Pro killstreaks can be ACTUAL money makers, I got one and sold it for 50 bucks.
@@DrewHelander we just did a tour on two cities both my friends got a professional kit fabricators but I got jack shit
Bruh im envious mann
@@DrewHelander depends on the weapon. If you get a Tomislav or something then yes, but if you get shit like Liberty Launcher then no.
2 days before one guy on his 12 tour got a golden pan. in that same match i got an australium rocket launcher
So how many pans did the guy get? 0?
0 yep!
@@SQU1RRELLYTF2 good fun
@@SQU1RRELLYTF2 I got 1
Edit: this is a joke ok lol
@@chandranair9448 cant say these things without linking proof.
@@chandranair9448 wheres the link buddy
Personally, I always buy or trade my high class items. I’ve never met one person who asks me where my high tier items come from, really. I used to trade for a lot of aussies/pro KS items and a couple unusuals back when the economy was better, but now because it’s so fucked over I just tend to buy or unbox stuff now. It’s a lot easier and I think In a lot of cases, the prices of constantly grinding MVM or unboxing seriously outweigh the prices of buying/trading in my opinion. Of course it feels special when you inbox/grind for one, that only ever applies to you. Funnily enough I unboxed a high tier knife in CSGO a while back after having what was like a drout in good unboxes in TF2.
I got a factory new Bloodsport AK back when it first came out for CS:GO on my second crate ever unboxed, so it was like around $100. I actually regret selling it, because even though I got some good games with the money I could have traded for some good stuff for the game I actually play (TF2).
th-cam.com/video/EW6m2ECJP8E/w-d-xo.html
"Sqwuwelli can u b my new Dad?" "No." *rocket-jumps away at the speed of sound*
Thank you so much for this video, a was thinking about this for a long time. Keep it up.
Use only the tickets you get from xmas, then you'll get your golden pan for free one day
@Daniel von Strangle u could unbox spooky crates and have the common chance of gettting a mvm ticket alongside the chance of an unusual. Still isnt worth it, but hey, its tf2 RGN.
@@cesarvialpando7736 "TF2 RNG"
I think the word you're looking for is gambling
@@melon4345 you dont say
@Daniel von Strangle wait what
@Daniel von Strangle you do, but not always
its funny how when i first started playing tf2 i commited to myself to not spend anymore than like 20 bucks on it
3 years later im nearing 1000 dollars spent and ive got nothing fancy to show for it
How many hours you have on tf2?
I have more dollars into the game than hours B)
@@OnionYeeter Late reply but a the time of my original comment, 1200 hours
I think ive dropped $500-$750 on tf2, with my highlight being my unusual Schadenfreude with dead presidents effect (idk, money from ground effect)
I personally play MVM for the good times and bot killing, the drops are a bonus, and funnily enough after 19 tours I got an aussie sniper rifle on my 9th tour, and an aussie rocket launcher on my most recent tour. Along with two professional killstreak kits for the eyelander and tide turner respectively (which I have yet to use)
Guys just remember that some random person played his first tour of duty and got the golden pan first go.
I got a knife on my first tour, I haven't played Mann Up since.
“Why is our car for sale”
“The pan mother, it’s golden”
Good video(despite being a bit old and the prices being out of date). Beside just raw cost of tickets vs Australium market costs you also have to consider opportunity cost of spending all those hours on MvM. If you really want Australium weapons it's easier to just get a job and make the money for one in a week or two of work rather than spending hundreds of hours getting a them via random drop.
Unless you're extremely lucky and you know you're lucky like some superpower then it's better to just buy them I'd say. Yea you could get a gold pan your first tour but you could also not get anything until the 5000th where you get a gold axtinguisher. Unless you have way too much time and money on your hands and want to pan hunt like some Pokemon shiny hunter I'd say buying or trading for the aussie you want is the best option.
I have to say, I do get a sense of envy when I see a golden pan. Fortunately, this is surpassed by my amazement that I saw one in the first place
As far as losing money playing MvM, you didn't mention selling the specialized/professional kill-streak kits to stay positive. It's probably different today, but back when I played (about a year after the Two Cities Update) you made up all your money you spent on tickets by selling your rewards. I had 31 tours on Two Cities.
Back when Killstreaks were new was some great times to make some quick cash. No matter what you found, the loot paid for the whole tour. I remember the first thing I found was a specialized killstreak scattergun fabricator and I sold it for $12, and it was uncrafted. Unfortunately all the loot farmers and the munition crates ruined the value of a lot of them through time.
I have around 60 tours between all the advanced and expert tours. Ive gotten 4 aussies, one of them being the gold pan on my 20th run of 2 cities. The pan is cool and all but like squirelly said everyone freaks out and tries to kill you, which just gets tiring after a while, so i sold mine.
Nice, 1 Aussy every 15 tours is really good! Some people go 100+ tours and get nothing :O
tell me what did you get in your first 10
gaming life for tf2 nothing lol
Saw that gold pan vid, srry im 4 yeats late
215 tours 3 austrlian
Press f to pay respects to all those people who grinded years of MvM to bring us the pans we have in this world
f
5:40 Er, I think your math is a bit off there. 0.39% chance would mean that 1 in every 256 tours would drop a golden pan. Even 0.05% would mean 1 in every 2000 tours would get a golden pan. And considering that only 188 pans exist and people have been grinding mvm since it came out, the chances are definitely far lower. I saw an estimate on reddit that said 0.0051% chance, which sounds more likely to me.
Your Math is based on the case where you get a Aussie after every Tour, you have to also calculate for the amount of Tours per aussie drop and then calculate the Pan chance ontop of the Aussie chance.
In the Video, the Guy got an Aussie every ~25 Tours, thats 4% chance.
4% * 0.4% = 0.0016% chance per Tour or about 1 in 6250 Tours for a Pan drop.
If we get one Pan per 6250 tours then the total amount of Tours played would be 6250*180 thats 1,125,000 completed tours or 1,125,000 * 3 Tickets * $0.8 = $2,700,000 just for Tickets (at about $0.8 each)
Quite alot, given the fact that a Golden Pan costs about $3000 and you could have bought 900 of them with that.
And thats if everyone played expert and not the Two City Tour that needs 1 additional ticket, that would have cost people $3,600,000 or 1200 Golden Pans.
Since we only got about 180 Pans we are basically paying Valve $3,600,000 / 180 = $20000 per Golden Pan this way ($15000 on 3 tour expert) a profit margin of about x0.15 (x0.2 on expert)
Now that's a good scam!
This shows that it can actually be less profitable than unboxing, depending on which crate you chose.
Im not Valve so these numbers are definetly not the real ones and just estimated and rounded to give you an overview of the whole topic.
Take them with a grain of salt.
ComputerDude2600 its probability. just because there’s a 1 in 256 chance for you to get it doesn’t mean that you will get it after 256 tours
thats the funny thing about percentage based chance, you can fail 1000 times at 1% and you'd be no closer than you started
Completed 57 tours of 2 cities and a combined total of 4 pro ks's no Aussies ( best one was a black box) the stat of every 30 tours for an Aussie... I think its safe to say Gabe himself has it out for me. XD
Skylar Muffin 30th tour i got my aussie RL
@@Silverfox1232 wait, how much is an Aussie RL?
In the market of course
I am a boi Tbh with you im not sure. i'm planning to keep it. I'm the only person with the item history of it so many people offered me 45 keys so like 90$ usd or shitty unusuals. Traders love smal item history tho
@@naufalr.9521 Depends on the weapon and ofc its history. Newer weapons gain a little over 10% more value as a general rule from what I've seen, and Aussies of main weapons like the Scattergun can sell for over £100. Weapons that are less competitive (FAN, SMG, etc.) sell for around £60-ish.
@@harryunderwood9387 some are below 20$
You were in my MvM game yesterday
We missed 0 credits, you better have given crisp the pictures
Oh, thats crazy how you showed up in my recommendations! I didn't know you were a youtuber! I keep getting connected to the same Valve servers you're on (its happened a couple of times now) and the times youve been on the opposite team you completely kick my ass :P You're a really good soldier and I like your loadout!
Same.^
i got my first drop at my 4th tour and got a austrailum scattergun I then a few tours later (cant remember the exact) got a prof killstreak rocket launcher set
Just want a Medigun and Crossbow. Seeing as I'm on the edge in terms of sinking lots of money into MVM (12 total tours), think I'm better off buying them.
I was playing a casual match when I got killed by a scout with a golden frying pan
One day I decided to buy 4 tickets for MVM, It was my first tour, and I got an Australium Eyelander...I was shaking that day
I have been friends with Creamy Goodness for a good while who has around that many tours as well. He and Creamy Jr (who I believe has the #1 amount of tours) play mvm quite a lot together. Definitely more of a hobby to them since with close to 5000 combined tours and 0 gold pans its a grim outcome profit-wise. MVM is quite fun and addicting so I can see why they enjoy it so much. But they are both oldschool players and collectors, so its nice to see that they haven't given up on a 12 year old game. I believe that mvm is a big factor in that.
Squ1rrelly: **is worth over 5k dollars in keys**
Also Squ1rrelly: **uses default taunts**
it's called a frugal lifestyle
I´m a Demomain and got an Australium Granadelauncher on my first Tour
If you plan to earn an Australium in Mann Up Mode, I'd say if you don't find something within your first 20 tours I'd probably just save or trade up for whatever you want. Otherwise, those tickets could've went towards a really nice Australium. Gaben wasn't kind enough to give me one until I reached tour 80. Some reason I find a lot of the single digit tourers usually find some of the best stuff. I suppose beginner's luck in hopes they'll keep going.
I just cant believe I missed out on the time unusuals were 100% drop rate for a bit
Same :C
So, basically your guaranteed for buying / trading up (Which most people don't know how to start with) for it, but you lose the fun in mvm. Then there's taking a risk for playing 1,000+ mvm tours, but you enjoy the fun of playing mvm. Kinda a hard decision tbh. (There's also the rare chance anyone would even trade their pan.)
Massive overpay i guess
1:07 man oh man that was a good shot, back to back. Couldn't focus on what you said about should i buy one.
Perfect flick, you landed on exactly where he would be estimated on the jump, real good aim and shooting dude.
oh yeah i met this guy in a mvm game and he told me that he had bad luck but he has seen 2 people get a golden pan
At the end of the video, I got an actual PAN ad that is amazing.
I played 602 Tours on 2 Cities, i have won 21 Australiums. I also Unbox, i opened around 2000 Cases and got (with unusualifiers counted) ~278 Unusuals. (I sold all, most (not all) of my Unboxed Unusuals i screenshotted)
Congrats! Very nice unbox rate, seems like your aussy drop rate was very similar the one in this video too ~3.4%
@@SQU1RRELLYTF2 cool, nice to hear. Btw, im still playing mvm if you also wanna do some, for like Australium Drop Compilations or so. Just feel free to reply, if youre interested.
being a part time worker I can't really afford to spend money on tf2 all that often, so I don't have many tours in MvM, that being said I just finished my 8th tour yesterday and got my first Ausy, a Strange Australium Knife, which according to my friend is pretty damn lucky.
Thank you gamer for making my time in the airport more bareable
1:00 "squ1rrelly can you be my dad" LMAO
I think mvm money should not be calculated only for the australiums, some prof and spec ks frabicators cost a decent price, some ks and a lot of robo parts end up adding some money
You don't gamble for profit, you take chances.
You're forgetting the value of entertainment for 3 dollars a tour. You get to play wave based defense TF2 for 4000 hours for about $4000 and leave with about $2000 worth of australium weapons.
$1.00 an hour for entertainment is not a bad deal when you get collectibles you can keep forever too.
That's right. He didn't count expensive killstreaks as well...
Moral: Don't play Mvm instead get a job
I got so far from what I remember:
Tour 2 - Australium Minigun
Tour 14 - Australium Rocket Launcher
Tour 20-30 - Last Australium, dropped mvm shortly after
I forgot how many tours I have but I think 33?
I sold them all at this point and left tf2
My boi got an Aussie Scattergun on his 7th tour
I got eyelander on my 7th tour
I got a Aussie Scattergun on my 2nd tour on gear grinder
But the thing is. It feels cheeper because you slowly buy tickets every now and again then just spending 40$ on an Australium + the satisfaction and excitement once you get one
I just spent money on my first pair of mann up tickets and played them, but i didnt get anything
Play the TwoCities one because it will give you items for a Killstreak kit (awesome effects)
@@dioxide39 yea ive gotten 3 killstreak fabricators from it, one of them was a pro killstreak
How it's goin' 1 month later?
@@koklu3 after i got my first killstreak fabricators, i started gathering more and more, i bought some off the steam market too, and i was waiting for the one week cooldown so i can trade (and plus i went camping) but the price of the pro killstreak bat outta hell that i crafted went down by like 5 keys, i dont know if i have made profit cus i was gonna sell it for a little less than 7 keys but now its under 2 keys, also it turns out that the tornado effect looks way cooler than flames.
@@PBCSandMarci How it's goin 2 years later?
Great video as always mate! (Btw I met ya on dustbowl today! Was nice playing with ya!)
"hey you!!! yaeh you!!! you have golden pan???!!!"
"No, it's an uhhhh.... Australium frying pan....?"
"Oe oehkay."
1h30min on average for a tour, that means with that time he could of worked and got 1.5x11$= 16.5$ a tour x1734 tour=28611$+5735$ he spent=36346$ wasted money and got 11 golden pans
I've done 17 tours of TC and gotten 2 Aussies. So that's a lot of luck there.
@Declan Wright YES IT IS!
Luck:exists
SQU1RRELLY TF2: I'll pretend I didn't see that
Did my favourite TF2 TH-camr just upload? Anyways nice video squirrelly, some good laugher here and there.
=]
The "No" from the soldier had so much attitude behind it.
I have noticed that the pan drops when there are the most people playing simultaneously. They tend to drop Thursday, Friday, Saturday afternoon. No proof obviously but I think valve reasons that it is best for as many players as possible to see that global announcement.
True, there's lots of good conspiracies about drop-rates. Valve has used time of day before for items and someone actually cracked the code (years ago) Or it could just be that's when most people play TF2/MVM - we will never know! :P
Tbh, making an sfm to win a saxxy is way easier to get. than to spend 3,000 real life dollars just for a golden frying pan
Love the vids keep it up ❤️
As always, excellent video SQU1RRELLY. Thanks for all the hard work and researching for the video. I look forward to watching many more of your videos. Bird Of PrAy
I played 4 tours (I I think) and got 2 aussies, Frontier Justice and a Scattergun
bruh..
Wow. I got 4 golden pans in a row...
To be fair when I was 10yo (9 years ago) I was playing MvM with my brother and in 30 tours I got 6 Australians, I sold em and waste that money like complete stupid kid as I was back then lmao. At least I got valuable lesson on what I should and shouldn’t spend money on
So TLDW:Don't play mvm and just buy the australium
dude that guy got literally like some of the most wanted australiums by tour 23 that's sick
You beat the fuck out of me and my friend as a scout with that pan...
I’ve never been more honored, nice work.
for normal aussies its probably best to just buy them if you really just want them and dont are about playing for them, but for something valueable as the golden pan its best to just play since it'll most likely cost you more to buy it than it is to get one from mvm if you're lucky
today i got one australium knife in mvm :>
Gs
My friend got an Aussie scattergun on his first tour... the best I have gotten from mvm was a prof ks bazaar bargain kit...
I’m 13 right now and I swear to you, one day when I get a job I’m gonna save up so much money and buy myself a golden pan. If you see this comment in a couple years time, keep spamming me about it so I remember. Thanks
Omar Garcia don't bother wasting your time or money on virtual items unless you are REALLY sure
Cheesecake0 ok thanks cheesecake :)))
@@OmarGarcia-zx2yl np :) trust me, $3000 is no joke once you're an adult
Cheesecake0 I know right they say McDonald’s is the only think you can afford in college and basically all adults start thinking differently about video game stuff, but I guess I’m just at that point in teenage years where I think that when I’m an adult l buy everything I want.... until I actually become one and learn the hard way. But I think all my decisions I make in several years time depends on everything in my life. Mysterious!
Cool
0.5% chance of a $3000 American dollar pan is actually some pretty good odds
A tf2 tradder who doesnt suck at the game (not a hate comment, a joke)
I got ducking scammed of all ny hats
I got ducking scammed of all hats
Scammer: steamcommunity.com/id/Optloaded99
@Lucifer thank you
Tbh the best part of the video was all those pipe airshots holy shit
*looks at my two tours*
wow looks like I’m close
What I learned:
-Unboxing doesnt give profit
-Playing MVM doesnt guve profit
-We play shrodinger Cats and every time we open the box we lose money
Pro tip, you can sell csgo cases for ticket money
How lol
my dumbass played 6 tours and got a pro medi gun kit worth like 150 dollars and sold that shit on steam for 80 and got like 60 cuse of steam tax, I could have prolly traded for a aussy scatter or sum, regret it to this day
How play tour
mvm:
2 cities drops lol
tour 6 - aussie frontier justice
tour 8 - pro ks tomislav fab
tour 13 - aussie rocket launcher lol
tour 15 - 4 crate drop, aussie FaN, pro ks scattergun kit
lol
lol
I have never traded ever...not yet anyways.
Considering recent events, not sure I should either.
That is some true love
Can you be my dad?
No
*Rocketjumps away*
That feeling when your dad rocket jumps to the gas station for some cigarettes
i have a two pans...
*NOT* *AUSTRALIUM* *PAN*
Cant u not get golden pan anymore (apart from trading)?
Like drops have stopped now or smth?
You can still win them in MVM, just very very low chance
@@SQU1RRELLYTF2 oh shit damn, nice
my favorite hobies in tf2 is playing mann up with tour of duty tickets and unboxing crates .
But Squ1rrelly you forgot something important in your calculations
All of those games made a profit because they had fun and got other rewards
Australiums aren't the only reward
ok buddy
Then you have that guy who got a golden frying pan in his hecking first tour
I think i will just buy a frying pan and name it to golden frying pan
STONKS
Bal
Find one with a yellow sheen so it can “sometime” look golden
0:50 "you guys see this pan?" everyone's reaction lol