I think there will only be 2 battery sizes, a small one for the base model and a large one for the long range and performance models. Having a 3rd size seems unnecessary and would only make the production line more complicated.
Sam... you killed it with this video. I shared with my fam of 100+. As the only Electronic Engineer in the family (that I know of), I believe everything you say. I love my classic car and diesel pickup, but batteries have finally come of age.
GM, Toyota and other legacy Car manufacturers will watch this episode and weep. A great well thought out and presented video which will set the standard for Tesla commentators for 2023. Well done and keep up this non clickbait quality reporting.
Sam, this was an outstanding video with lots of research and well thought through conclusions. It's hard to pick major holes in it. The one challenge is that Tesla has huge demand for the 3 & Y and any 2023 announcement will not help. The dilemma is that if they announce this in 2023, they will lose more 3&Y sales in the short term than they sell of the Model 2 as people wait. This leads me down the rabbit hole of scaling production capacity as scale is supposed to be the core theme of Elon's masterplan Part Trois, so the pieces in this puzzle start to fit. If you then extrapolate further, it asks the questions about the ultimate and most coveted model number - the model 1. This maybe Tesla's crowning achievement and not require humans at all. Very thought provoking! Thank you.
I don't think people wanting a 2 are buying a Y in the mean time. And only a few might be choosing a 3. The people waiting for a 2 are the ones who can't or won't spend the amount of money a 3 or a Y costs.
@@markmyers4573 possibly true. However, there's endless precedent on companies launching lower priced awesome products and their customers trading down. Rich man's problem :)
I subscribed back when your channel suddenly took off. Love your enthusiasm (not hype). So glad you got past the haters and are going strong. Great research based speculation.
Keilder ◇ #Sam is getting better at compiling and telling people information that they may not get elsewhere. 👌 ( Become a *"**#Patron_Member**"* it is cheap, otherwise I couldn't afford it. ) [Just a innocent suggestion]
Fantastic no nonsense prediction. Your detailed research makes it seem inevitable and imminent. All the more exciting! Thanks for confirming my own bias, EV.
@@electricviking just take the kgs and double then add twenty percent for quick accurate estimates. "... Base model ... 1400kgs or 2800 lbs..." -- EV More like 3080lbs... btw LFP3 depending on the 3 will be significantly lighter per cell depending on the MgZnAl to Fe ratio. All three have lower atomic mass than iron so even 1 percent makes a diff. If the atoms replace iron in the atomic ion cage as assumed it's way more than 1 percent.
If the aim is to maximize the transition to a sustainability future, it's not always a good idea for the other brands to fail. So I think we will Also see things happening across the brands - in-licensing, cooperation, take overs etc. Everything we can imagine.
Batteries capacity is the key on the EV industry from now, who has mass batteries capacity will control the mass production and consequently the price.
I would like to know where all the batteries are coming from for all these cars. And where all the electric is coming from to charge all the cars & charger stations for them?
I think it will have removable fly by wire electronic steering and pedal boxes. They can be put on left or right according to country and switched easily. Remove for full FSD Robotaxi.
I think most countries legally require vehicles to have hard connections between the steering wheel and the wheels. And that won't change any time soon.
What about charging infrastructure? How will that get ramped up to support such a rapid changee? What about power generation to support that much demand? We don't have it now. How will we get that many plants approved, built, and online in that time frame?
Solar and wind growth is more than making up the difference already. The impact is less than when air conditioners hit the market in the past. Read about Tesla's virtual power plants (VPP) and you will understand the massive impact of a decentralized power grid. Don't forget solar panels on most homes provide more than enough for two cars and most of a house demands. Think big. It is very exciting.
In terms of EVs, the name of the game is 1) longer range means a fewer stop in between 2) charging speed means more stalls for others 3) price means affordability.
Price went from $25,000 usd to now est. $28k usd. Just a hunch, likey will be $34,000 base USD. The model 3 was supposed to be a $35,000 car but it's $60,000 to $70,000 USD. Kids are lining up for their 8 year car mortgage and a monthly payment more than their already high housing rental.
Hi Sam, thanks for another insightful video. The model A/2 is the Tesla we want here in Europe. Demand for such a Tesla here will be astronomical! I hope it gets made at giga Berlin too.
Original announcements wer that there would be 2 separate models. One design and built for the Chinese market, and one designed and built in Germany for the European market. But that was many years ago. So who knows now?
Very good Sam👍 One point I disagree with. Berlin! Why? What do you think is the planned expansion in Berlin for? And don‘t underestimate the local factor in Germany and Europe.
Good work on this piece,; really stepping out , making a huge statement. It occurs as the information and statements are well-formed and have a high rate of probability. Well done.
I am a big fan of yours. It will be an interesting challenge for Tesla ramp production on the cybertruck and the model 2 around the same time. Along with ramping 4680 the talk of refining and mining (good and necessary) Tesla will be in a position to execute across a much wider range of projects with different dynamics.
Back in the day I bought 3 geo metros. 4 door, 2 door, convertible. Hope GM will bring the Wuling convertible to the US. It's everything I need and want
Bro i normally agree with you. They haven't even SHOWN this car....the Cybertruck was shown in 2019 let that sink in, you SAID PRODUCTION in 2023 let that sink in....
If Steering /acceleration/ braking are fly by wire implementations . Can we finally outgrow the outmoded LEFT/RIGHT hand drive that defines the cars target market? . simply provide a bus connection on either side of the dash...... Oh and By the way a steering wheel does not need a airbag if it only needs the structural strength of a joystick and collapses in an impact....
I was hoping that this idea would be implemented with the cybertruck to service right hand drive markets. It certainly makes sense when building a new vehicle for the world 👍🏽🐨🇦🇺
I predict the model 2 will be built first in Shanghai and then at a new giga in Ontario, Canada...still qualifies for incentives. The Austin plant will build cybertruck, and semis in big volume, along with model Y's. These will consume HUGE volumes of batteries! We will see...
Hey Sam. European cities really have very narrow roads, but thats not the same in the USA, where very broad roads and avenues are common. No big market for large american cars. But the small hatchbacks like golf and corrolla, sells like warm danish viking pastry. If Elon wants to have factories close to the market, its a good question wether GIGA Austin will be first choice, instead of Berlin, when it comes to Model 2. Few days ago, entrepteneurs started prepairing another 70 hectars of land, where the Berlin Giga factory 2, are expected to be built in the comming months. That could very well be part of the M2 production plans, that Elon has in his sleeve. We will see.
My prediction is that this smaller car will be made in Shanghai and Berlin, not USA. Americans like big over-sized pickup trucks. Even the Cybertruck is quite large, and I believe a somewhat smaller version of the Cybertruck will be designed for the rest of the world markets. The biggest negative for Cybertruck in USA is not its looks, but that it won't be high enough. They like to sit high and be able to look over the roofs of cars in front. Tesla Model 2 will be imported into USA in small numbers.
Location location location on back woods redneck Mississippi we got rutted roads potholes an storm drains leaves an pine needles in th road makes road kill had ta spot HA
@@neo1267 yeah. Problem is that Poland and France, are not the countries that are known for producing the highest quality of any goods. That goes for cars as well. Germany, West Denmark, are the top of the list. Italy, Poland and France are in the bottom.
Absolutely agree with you Sam. People in general have no idea what is underway with EVs in the world. I, for one, will be up for this Tesla when it's available here in Australia. Until then, I have my BYD Atto 3 and I'm very proud to be a part of what is happening. The BYD experience is quite something and I do not for a second regret my decision. I'm sure I'll feel the same when I take possession of the new, smaller and more cost effective Tesla when it is launched.
Assist th ex Elle ration of th transition by tweet Mr Elon tell him u have landfor giga factory with electric money king dump trucks an electric bulldozers on th land
As someone who has repaired conventional cars in frustration most of my life it is like a breath of fresh air to see manufacturing design finally push the boundaries - For a long time now I have questioned why we don't have cars built simpler with less ' I mean why have we not had cars years ago that were controlled by a joystick on the door panel ?
I think they will be paintless, like the cybertruck. The paintshop is both costly and a production speed limiter. Perhaps anodized to get a few different metallic colors. But no paint.
Hey Sam, I agree with a lot of what you're saying, except I think the model 2 will just be one car: a small hatchback/crossover. That's the functionality people need at that price point.
Thank you for the video. Also, well done on thinking through the possible scenarios / implications that will affect future pricing in Europe, USA, and China.
If we can convince the US to get away from big cars, it will work. I have a Smart for2 ED in the US and love it. But very small cars aren't popular here. They are smaller than the old road boats of the '60 and '50s, but still big. I love my Tesla Model Y also, but it seem big and bulky in comparison to the Smart.
It will also have V2G, no issues with LMFP batteries as they can be charged and discharged through 0-100% cycles. This allows part 2 of the transition to renewable - storge of energy during off peak periods to be used during peaks.
I like your thinking. I generally agree with everything you're saying except that this new vehicle will also be made in Europe as that is a lucrative market, where large cars historically had difficulty.
Wow, a real revelation, I hope it all comes to be. Very much looking forward to 2023, seems like with Tesla every year there is something significant to look forward to. Despite Tesla’s big push into expanding their SC station network globally I still think it must grow even faster than it is now. I follow the growth esp. in the US and growth rate needs to increase, lots of permits for new stations but many languish for months before construction or expire. Some ‘coming’ locations also suddenly disappear from their SC map, one of them twice in the past year or so in a nearby city but a 24 stall one under construction two blocks from my home. With Elon saying SC stations will open up to non-Tesla EVs rate of growth must grow faster imho. Of the half-dozen stations within 9 miles of my home the utilization bar charts on the Tesla screen shows near saturation nearly 18 hours a day. I see a huge increase in the no. of Teslas in my area this year and in the past month, I predict much more as gas is expensive in SCal. Solar panels, EVs and net metering/TOU rates, lots of sunshine makes economic sense if you have your own home.
Sam- In the US, in the 1960s, the Volkswagon Beatle and the VW Bus, were the universal low cost vehicles. Their air cooled engines could be repaired by any mechanic with basic skills. (I observed a student at Cal Poly, completely disassemble a VW engine, rebuild it, put it back into the car and drive it away first try.) My direct experience was with a Beatle, which I drove all over northern Europe in 1965. My father bought it in Germany. Under powered, at 36 horsepower. (I got a ticket once, for entering a freeway, a mile ahead of a pickup truck, which must have been going at least seventy mph. The pickup swerved around my VW. Observed by an officer, who gave me a ticket, for a hazardous turn to the left. The TESLA Model 2 needs to be the same low-cost car, for students, young people and the world, to eliminate the over one billion ICE cars polluting the planet. The 500 Chinese companies, producing minicars, have the prices way down, below $5,000 USD, but those cars won't sell well in the US, or meet the crash standards. General motors can only afford to sell Hummers and Cadillacs. Ford can only survive selling expensive pickup trucks. TESLA needs to provide a super VW bug equivalent for the 2020s, that will move the world to electric. COP 27 is saying that 1.5 degrees warming is already gone, and the world is heading for 2.7 degrees global warming, with the hundred year weather extreme happening every week. The only car I can see in my future, I currently own both a TESLA Model 3 with FSD and a Hyundai NEXO fuel cell, is the apocalypse-ready mini cybertruck. Bulletproof, Hazmat protected and floats.
Actually, I would go stronger on this. Tesla (to me) are a software and charger company primarily. They have also focused on how to build EVs from day one and are at an unbelievably advanced level on how to make cars in a skateboard world. I think a model Z, small SUV will be the most important model going forward, but the same skateboard will be used for the model 2, a new small roadster (mx-5 size) and a smaller EU sized pick up truck. The current one is just too big for the EU needs. The new small platform and casting method is key. To survive, the other OEMs have to follow.
Id love a mini cytruck in usa as well. Not sure if theres enough difference between a hatchback m2 and a suv on the same platform, how much suv could you really achieve?
@@gerrywithaG agreed but I still think a smaller and cheaper SUV than the Model Y will outsell the Cybertruck 2x. Time will tell. Let’s revisit in say 3 years when both should be in full production
@@richardmorin4518 I think a lower price on the Model Y is more likely down the road versus a smaller version. They already have the Y and X - I think a SUV version of the Cybertruck would sell better than a smaller version of the Model Y (IMHO). But who knows....the more choices the better
@@gerrywithaG I agree with you. Lower the price of the Y and have an R1S fighter based on the CT. There's a market for smaller cars, but in the US, larger cars are a bigger part of the market.
Speculative drawing at 16:47 looks amazing! Hats off the artist. As a Toyota fanboy .....their lack of action on EV's is killing me. They had a great start with the all electric Rav4 and they blew it.
Model 2 it must be. After all it cleverly fits with Elon's other model names: 2 S 3 X Y . Range of 300 miles {= 483 km} roughly equals the highway range of my present beloved 2007 Honda Fit. Good enough even in winter. I eagerly await further news. Many thanks, Sam !
Tesla's lineup will be an acronym for "sexy cars" with the Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Model A, Roadster, Semi. *EDIT* They can eg. extend that to a model 4 and U. for "sexy cars for you" acronym.
My problem is the model 3 feels like a $29,000 car, not a $45,000. I own one. The interior is very cheap. And I own a LR version and can't imagine a car with less range either. No clue how a cheaper tesla will feel.
Great video, thanks! I too think that things will move faster and faster. This would also be in line what people like Tony Seba (see this TH-cam channel) keep saying: it'll follow an S-curve. Both for the adoption of the new, but also the decline of the old will follow a similar curve. Certain legacy companies have very little time to get their game together if they want to continue to exist. Toyota still remains somewhat of a mystery to me: it's lagging horribly, yet at least one day they had a huge amount of the required skills and knowledge in house. Just the thought that the company that brought us the Prius (hate it or love it, doesn't matter) is lagging so much when it comes to serious EV products is just hard to believe..
@Ethan8 Very good point about Toyota. Several videos from reliable automotive TH-cam channels have mentioned that Toyota thought it would be hybrids until the later switch to hydrogen. The implication was that the switch to full battery electric vehicles (or the pace of the switch) was a bit of a surprise to them.
Given all the things that are going for Tesla now, is it likely that Tesla will maybe overtake brands like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft in terms of revenue and overall worth in the near future. Does anyone know this?
I’d love someone to explain why they think the Tesla Model 2 release will kill gas cars !!!!!! I believe electric cars are the future , I currently drive an Ev & have done so for 5 years. But I’m very sorry to say at this moment in time I’m seriously considering going back to a petrol car. Here in the uk it is actually not worth going electric unless it’s a company car or you have solar at home. The price of charging an Ev has skyrocketed in the last 12 months. Dealers & other Ev owners need to start being honest around the cost of owning & driving an Ev. I myself have saved thousands of pounds over the last 5 years through driving an Ev. But now in 2022 with standard home electric being £0.34 per kw & most public AC chargers costing anything from £0.35p to £0.65p per kw & DC Rapid chargers costing anything from £0.69p to £1.00 per kw the cost of running an Ev has gone above that of a petrol car. If you do the proper calculations around cost of charging your Ev you will soon realise you are not really saving money. There was recently a test done by I think whatcar. A Vauxhall corsa E against a Vauxhall corsa petrol both driven in convoy on a 220 mile trip from Leeds. They filled the petrol corsa up at the motorway services which is the most expensive place to fill a petrol car up at , at the cost of £1.99 per litre & they filled the corsa E up at one of the cheapest rapid chargers in the uk at the cost of £0.69p per kw. The corsa E cost £9.60 more in electric than the petrol car did in petrol. That’s crazy , Especially when you could fill the petrol car up at nearly any other garage for £0.40p at least cheaper but you couldn’t really find a cheaper rapid charger so in the real world you would save more than that. They also tested the bmw i4 M50 against a Bmw M440i & again the petrol bmw was £5.50 cheaper than the Ev version. I know Ev owners will be saying but I only pay £0.10p on the octopus go cheap night tariff to charge my Ev. But that’s not entirely true is it Ev owners. Because you may get 6 hours of cheap charging from 23:30 to 05:30 but you pay £0.10p more for your day time Electric eg the next 18 hours of the day at the cost of £0.44p per kw instead of the government cap of £0.34p per kw. So for a proper calculation cost of charging your Ev you need to add the extra you pay during the other 18 hours onto your Ev costs. You must also remember for every pound you pay for electric charging you only actually get £0.85p of electric in your car as you lose around 15% in the transfer. Now let’s more on to the myth of you’ll save on maintenance with an Ev. This is partly true & false older electric cars need little servicing compared to petrol cars. But if you buy new for the first 5 years of ownership there is hardly any saving from maintenance. The reason behind this if you don’t have your Ev serviced every year you will lose your warranty. And the cost is roughly the same as a petrol car. Like Ev’s the first year to the 4th year the only difference in servicing is oil & filter. If you look at the MG service package there is £2.00 difference in monthly cost between an Ev package over the petrol cars package. Petrol cars do start to be more expensive after the fourth service if you use the main dealer. But most people don’t take older petrol cars to the main dealer after there warranty has run out. This is where it gets a bit more awkward for Ev owners as you get a 8 year warranty on the battery & motor you still need to have it serviced by the main dealer to keep that warranty for the 8 years. Because of this it is more Likely to cost you more in maintenance for your Ev as most people don’t take 7 / 8 year old cars to main dealers for a service. Then there is car insurance Ev are more expensive to insure than there petrol counterparts. Over the years the uk government has stopped all grants to private buyers. The £5000.00 grant got dwelled down to £1500.00 & has now gone. The charger grant has also gone. Free chargers have now more or less vanished. With April 2023 fast approaching & the government removing the cap home electric is estimate to rise from the £0.34p per kw to £0.51p per kw & public chargers will go up as well so Rapid chargers will be at least £1.00 per kw. So like I said unless you have a company car or you have solar at home your Ev if not at this moment cost you more to run than a petrol car come April 2023. Then there is the cost of buying an Ev. Let’s say you buy one of the cheapest Ev’s on the uk market a Vauxhall Corsa E ultimate this will cost you £10,000 more than the petrol Vauxhall Corsa ultimate to buy , but in real terms it will cost you £13,000 more. If you look at Vauxhall’s finance because the Ev is £10,000 more to buy you will pay around £3,000 more in interest. So you Ev now has cost you actually £13,000 more than a petrol one but remember you need a home charger too the average cost since the grants removal is around £1200.00 so your already in the hole for an extra £14200.00 because you bought an electric car. Lets say you electric is free for life & you do 10,000 miles a year it would take you around 8 years to get that money back if you didn’t pay a penny for you electric. But in todays market it will most likely cost you more to run the ev & come April it will 100% cost you more to run an Ev. The time has passed where you can put your fuel saving costs towards the extra cost of the car & with no grant anymore you will have to shoulder that burden yourself. So please all new people looking at an Ev do the calculations yourself if your getting an Ev to save money , because you will not save anything. I must make a comment about Tesla I have owned two Tesla’s & they were nice cars. I was a Tesla fan boy but not anymore for the below reasons. 1. Too many broken promises. I have paid for FSD twice & it has never been operational even tho Elon said it would be very soon. Tesla should transfer it to your new car if you’ve paid for it & it hasn’t been activated yet. The supercharging network we were told back in the day you buy a Tesla & some of that money goes to build the supercharging network. I get Tesla opening up the network to get uk funding towards it , but when you have spent £80,000 plus for your Tesla it’s not right anyone can have access to it , at the same rate as you for just £10.00 per month & can just pay for one month & cancel it. It’s a betrayal of the people that have spent tens of thousands buying tesla for access to the superchargers. New car prices Tesla / Elon always said the more cars we sell will bring down the prices of tesla cars. Tesla make more per car than any other main stream manufacturer. Tesla also put up prices in country’s that have great sales & brings down prices in country’s with bad sales numbers. This goes against what Tesla has said in the past. Even tho tesla make more per car than any other manufacturer they put up the price of the model 3 standard in the uk from £38,500 to £48,500 that’s a rise of £10,000. Tesla / Elon said the model 3 would be affordable £48,500 for a starting price & base model isn’t affordable & it shouldn’t be in the 50k car bracket it’s not worth that. It should be a max of £35,000. The roadster has been promised for years now & the cyber truck but they are know where to be seen.
I think you are right in a lot of this. I do have a fear. A lot of the inflation we currently experiencing is due to fossil fuels jacking up price for profits, because they, an oligopoly, can. We are a captive market. Mostly. But my issue is Tesla. I am worried Tesla is going to corner a huge section of the market place. I don’t mind them leading the way and showing that it can be done, and done very profitably. But we need competition in the EV market to force the prices even lower then what you are talking about for the Model 2. So everyone that needs a vehicle can afford one. Besides it would be a very boring world if all vehicles looked like a Tesla. They need strong competition, to keep them sharp! To keep prices low. To keep cars fun!
Agree but legacy does not have engineers that are worth a shit. So it costs way more to produce a car. Time, labor and design are not legacy talents. It has been 20 plus years with no new engineering. Just new sheet metal
@@b4804514 I think a few of them can make it threw. However don’t limit your thinking to just the legacy field. EV start ups will play a big role as well
Sandy Monroe already said “the Chinese are coming.” And that includes Tesla. And BYD. And imagine, when you can buy them used. This changes everything.
Love your video! In my opinion, I don’t think there will be a 250kw charge rate on small sized batteries. There’s nothing close to that on the market right now. However, if it’s 150kw, DC charging should be very quick. Very exciting if this car is produced and sold over the world. Again, thanks for a great detailed video!
I agree. The base Model 3 with LFP tops out at 170 kW charge rate for a ~58 kWh pack. That's a charge rate of about 3C. 150 kW charge rate for a 50 kWh pack sounds realistic.
@@iamjoehill I think you are onto something here. I still think a 30kwh battery won’t be as high though. New Fiat 500e peaks around 85kw. I wonder what the charge curve would look like for a small battery size like that? 50kw lfp totally agree!
@@jpnw3272 Yeah, I also think the smaller packs will peak at around 100 kW. As the owner of a Model 3 with a "250 kW" peak charge rate - I think the focus on peak values are rather silly. I've maybe seen close to it a couple of times, but only in the summer with a warm battery and very low state of charge. And then the peak is only for a few minutes. In the real world the charging curve is more interesting, and the behavior with the battery at lower temperatures. But we probably have to accept the focus on these peak values as all brands use it for marketing 🙃😊
The batteries could be CATL Sodium-ion, that are cheaper than LFP, and they are supposed to mass produce in 2023 as you have mentioned in a recent video, if I remember correctly. I think the price will be close to 30k in USA because of Foxconn starting to build their Model B and the Fisker PEAR, same skateboard, in Ohio in 2024 at just under 30k. That will be Tesla real competition in that segment not GM.
Has CATL successfully developed a Sodium-ion pack? I remember this being talked about, and if so WOW that is a game changer. Sodium supply is everywhere
If my memory is correct, didn’t Tesla buy land about 3 miles from current Shanghai? Could this be a possible assembly location for a Model 2? Could you do a part two researching info on this site? Thanks and congrats on over 100000 subscribers. Good work.😊
Good video. I think most of it is probably on target. Except I think there will be, or at least should be, only 1 variation. I don't think there will be an "SUV" variation - there is no such thing as an "SUV" that small anyway. And there should only be entry-level variation only - standard range, single motor. Keep it simple and affordable! Other variations are completely unnecessary and only allow Tesla to distract and upsell what is not needed. They will only make the more expensive variants and never the entry-level variant, and the $25K Model 2 will be just as much of a myth as the $35K Model 3 was. Enough. Keep it simple - 1 variation only, keep it truly affordable, and truly roll it out to the masses! By the time you have to buy the paint color you want, the wheels you want, etc., the price is already higher than the entry level price anyway. Just keep it at that. 1 variation, a few options, the end.
Agreed Kevin, there's no way a smaller vehicle will be produced next year. Tesla is so far behind with Roadster, semi and truck to focus on a high volume lower cost vehicle
@@kevinsaint20 Sure, they don't have a prototype yet but it's a high priority now and as announced during the Q3 earnings call the product design team is focused on this now. So, unveiling a prototype during 2023 should be feasible.
I do contract work at an auto repair shop and fear these guys days are numbered as the repair / maintenance bills on ICE vehicles are astronomical. I drive my no maintenance T car to the shop and park in the back so it won't be seen to avoid issues. ICE cars days are numbered and it's coming soon. Good Content. Prayers for the wife. Mine had stage 4 cancer as well 30 years ago and lived another 26 years after treatment. Best wishes.
Sam, considering how much you peddle Chinese BEV manufacturers, you need to do an in-depth video on the US ban of chips to China. I suggest starting your research by watching Mark Moss' video titled China Was Just Sent Back to the Dark Ages.
It won't convince the 'sceptics' (actually denialists if you look up the definition of a sceptic) of anything. The ones I have encountered have their brains welded to the ICE vehicle to the extent that nothing will dislodge it. They will always find something about EVs to whinge about. I've even had more than one complain about the lack of engine noise. I told one that if that was such a big issue, he can make "brrmmm brmmm" noises. One concept I really like from your video was the notion of the end of the ICE Age. Consider that stolen. 😉🤣
I have a friend just like yours - he can't get past the lack of engine noise. He actually told me my Tesla had "no soul". FYI, using the 'ICE age' pun to describe what's going to happen to dinosaur fueled vehicles has been around for a while. Our beloved Viking didn't coin the term, but he is still awesome.
Couldn’t agree with you more Sam. Tesla has started the ball rolling. Hopefully it will bring the prices of EVs down. New battery technology and chemistry will also help to make that possible. EVs are still in their infancy so as they mature the prices will be down to a reasonable amount for the average consumer. Thanks Sam for your informative videos. Love watching your content.
You need the horse before the cart. Meaning, this scale dictates mass charging stations around the world able to provide charging from sources; and charging stations that truly work, unlike today with so many NOT (not talking Teslas). Also, many businesses will need them for employees, especially renters or high density areas where parking does not allow charging. These are big obstacles that must get addressed now, first.
No way will base model be 30kWh. Most cars in supermini class are shipping with 50kWh. I think Tesla will do the same but have a lighter higher range car. The MG4 has shown it can be done for under $30k.
You summed it up fine. Quicker cheaper china development. Localization of optimized mass production. Add one more, short transportation of raw resources to the customer. Equals economic environmental clean mobility for all people. Thanks for your dedication to getting it right with a positive benchmark.
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One thing i like about you is you tell it like it is. No pandering about.
He tells it like he THINKS it is.
@@pdloder thanks, wanna talk about your issues?
Selectively, and when it's promoting Tesla
@@acelectricalsecurity He does have a somewhat stinky nose huh?
@@jagsfanrick yes, thank you - I have issues with an over abundance of self-confidence of knowing, without sufficient intelligence.
More videos like this please! Soo much value in 22 minutes.
Your timeline makes a lot of sense. Let’s see how close are in just a couple years time.
This is an instant classic episode. Super well done Sam. Thank you.
Glad you enjoyed it!
I will sell my wife. And buying more Tesla at dip
So much insight Sam! Great work
Wow you must be one megafan... wtf
@@youngtran5323 You will lose your wife and all of your money if you do.
Such a car would be an excellent city car.
I think there will only be 2 battery sizes, a small one for the base model and a large one for the long range and performance models. Having a 3rd size seems unnecessary and would only make the production line more complicated.
Sam... you killed it with this video. I shared with my fam of 100+. As the only Electronic Engineer in the family (that I know of), I believe everything you say. I love my classic car and diesel pickup, but batteries have finally come of age.
GM, Toyota and other legacy Car manufacturers will watch this episode and weep. A great well thought out and presented video which will set the standard for Tesla commentators for 2023. Well done and keep up this non clickbait quality reporting.
If GM can actually produce the E Equinox in volume, It will have Zero trouble outselling these UGLY model 2's......Paul
Sam, this was an outstanding video with lots of research and well thought through conclusions. It's hard to pick major holes in it. The one challenge is that Tesla has huge demand for the 3 & Y and any 2023 announcement will not help. The dilemma is that if they announce this in 2023, they will lose more 3&Y sales in the short term than they sell of the Model 2 as people wait. This leads me down the rabbit hole of scaling production capacity as scale is supposed to be the core theme of Elon's masterplan Part Trois, so the pieces in this puzzle start to fit. If you then extrapolate further, it asks the questions about the ultimate and most coveted model number - the model 1. This maybe Tesla's crowning achievement and not require humans at all. Very thought provoking! Thank you.
I don't think people wanting a 2 are buying a Y in the mean time. And only a few might be choosing a 3. The people waiting for a 2 are the ones who can't or won't spend the amount of money a 3 or a Y costs.
@@markmyers4573 possibly true. However, there's endless precedent on companies launching lower priced awesome products and their customers trading down. Rich man's problem :)
@@Celestialrob Very true. I would ditch my Model Y to get a M1 SUV-LR. The Y is too big for 2 retired people IMO.
I'll 2nd that.
@@vickykennel7414 hah hah, never enough for me.
I subscribed back when your channel suddenly took off. Love your enthusiasm (not hype). So glad you got past the haters and are going strong. Great research based speculation.
Thanks so much!!
Great video. Love the forecast. Membership EXPLODING!! Sam, you're on a roll. Hard work, well rewarded.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Keilder ◇ #Sam is getting better at compiling and telling people information that they may not get elsewhere. 👌
( Become a *"**#Patron_Member**"* it is cheap, otherwise I couldn't afford it. )
[Just a innocent suggestion]
Please hit the like button tyvm
Fantastic no nonsense prediction. Your detailed research makes it seem inevitable and imminent. All the more exciting! Thanks for confirming my own bias, EV.
Glad you enjoyed it!
@@electricviking just take the kgs and double then add twenty percent for quick accurate estimates.
"... Base model ... 1400kgs or 2800 lbs..."
-- EV
More like 3080lbs...
btw
LFP3 depending on the 3 will be significantly lighter per cell depending on the MgZnAl to Fe ratio. All three have lower atomic mass than iron so even 1 percent makes a diff.
If the atoms replace iron in the atomic ion cage as assumed it's way more than 1 percent.
I appreciate your research. Way better than some guy blabbing on and not presenting any new info. Best model 2 video out forsure
If the aim is to maximize the transition to a sustainability future, it's not always a good idea for the other brands to fail.
So I think we will Also see things happening across the brands - in-licensing, cooperation, take overs etc. Everything we can imagine.
This is the model I will be ordering. Thanks for all your great non biased reporting
Batteries capacity is the key on the EV industry from now, who has mass batteries capacity will control the mass production and consequently the price.
I would like to know where all the batteries are coming from for all these cars. And where all the electric is coming from to charge all the cars & charger stations for them?
I think it will have removable fly by wire electronic steering and pedal boxes. They can be put on left or right according to country and switched easily. Remove for full FSD Robotaxi.
You mean drive by wire. Then again, if it can fly... "one more thing"
I think most countries legally require vehicles to have hard connections between the steering wheel and the wheels. And that won't change any time soon.
@@bobbytookalook I believe Tony is right especially in richer countries. In poorer places, bus on demand services could work well.
What about charging infrastructure? How will that get ramped up to support such a rapid changee? What about power generation to support that much demand? We don't have it now. How will we get that many plants approved, built, and online in that time frame?
Solar and wind growth is more than making up the difference already. The impact is less than when air conditioners hit the market in the past. Read about Tesla's virtual power plants (VPP) and you will understand the massive impact of a decentralized power grid. Don't forget solar panels on most homes provide more than enough for two cars and most of a house demands. Think big. It is very exciting.
In terms of EVs, the name of the game is 1) longer range means a fewer stop in between 2) charging speed means more stalls for others 3) price means affordability.
Price went from $25,000 usd to now est. $28k usd. Just a hunch, likey will be $34,000 base USD. The model 3 was supposed to be a $35,000 car but it's $60,000 to $70,000 USD. Kids are lining up for their 8 year car mortgage and a monthly payment more than their already high housing rental.
Hi Sam, thanks for another insightful video. The model A/2 is the Tesla we want here in Europe. Demand for such a Tesla here will be astronomical! I hope it gets made at giga Berlin too.
Not gonna happen.
Thanks for sharing!
Assuming that China will be stable in 10 years is the big mistake here. Tesla needs to get serious about mining and building more Gigafactories here.
Original announcements wer that there would be 2 separate models. One design and built for the Chinese market, and one designed and built in Germany for the European market. But that was many years ago. So who knows now?
Sam, greatest barrier for legacy to EV is not technology. It is business models and corporate cultures
That was a massive amount of research, thank you!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Spot on Sam. Imho this car will highlight how scaling production brings down cost.
One of your best videos Sam, probably the best. Keep fighting the good fight! Cheers.
Very good Sam👍 One point I disagree with. Berlin! Why? What do you think is the planned expansion in Berlin for? And don‘t underestimate the local factor in Germany and Europe.
I want one. I think sales of this will rocket
=TSLA to the 🚀🌕 by year 2030!
Good work on this piece,; really stepping out , making a huge statement. It occurs as the information and statements are well-formed and have a high rate of probability. Well done.
I like th relevant speculation
I am a big fan of yours. It will be an interesting challenge for Tesla ramp production on the cybertruck and the model 2 around the same time. Along with ramping 4680 the talk of refining and mining (good and necessary) Tesla will be in a position to execute across a much wider range of projects with different dynamics.
….:& da SEMI
Back in the day I bought 3 geo metros. 4 door, 2 door, convertible. Hope GM will bring the Wuling convertible to the US. It's everything I need and want
Thank you Sam..! 😁👍🏻
Agree with your price range & production numbers.. But I think the turnover point will be earlier - somewhat around 2026/27.. 🖖🏻😎
Bro i normally agree with you. They haven't even SHOWN this car....the Cybertruck was shown in 2019 let that sink in, you SAID PRODUCTION in 2023 let that sink in....
Viking, you're Ace 👌 This is deep in the weeds stuff, but I agree Tesla is just about there to do this. Can't wait. Each product is so 🔥 🔥
A model 2 in Europe and China would be huge. We like bigger cars and trucks in the US. Cyber Truck baby!!
With the battery being produced at a lighter weight, apart from the extra range it should also be slightly faster (for 3/Y) right?
0-60 in 1 sec 😊👍
@@HelloMyFriend_ It will bend time and space.
If Steering /acceleration/ braking are fly by wire implementations . Can we finally outgrow the outmoded LEFT/RIGHT hand drive that defines the cars target market? . simply provide a bus connection on either side of the dash...... Oh and By the way a steering wheel does not need a airbag if it only needs the structural strength of a joystick and collapses in an impact....
I was hoping that this idea would be implemented with the cybertruck to service right hand drive markets. It certainly makes sense when building a new vehicle for the world 👍🏽🐨🇦🇺
I predict the model 2 will be built first in Shanghai and then at a new giga in Ontario, Canada...still qualifies for incentives. The Austin plant will build cybertruck, and semis in big volume, along with model Y's. These will consume HUGE volumes of batteries! We will see...
Sam, you are the most grounded authority in the EV market space.
Hey Sam. European cities really have very narrow roads, but thats not the same in the USA, where very broad roads and avenues are common. No big market for large american cars. But the small hatchbacks like golf and corrolla, sells like warm danish viking pastry. If Elon wants to have factories close to the market, its a good question wether GIGA Austin will be first choice, instead of Berlin, when it comes to Model 2. Few days ago, entrepteneurs started prepairing another 70 hectars of land, where the Berlin Giga factory 2, are expected to be built in the comming months. That could very well be part of the M2 production plans, that Elon has in his sleeve. We will see.
Perhaps a Tesla Model 2 factory could be built in France or Poland. This would serve all of Europe.
My prediction is that this smaller car will be made in Shanghai and Berlin, not USA. Americans like big over-sized pickup trucks. Even the Cybertruck is quite large, and I believe a somewhat smaller version of the Cybertruck will be designed for the rest of the world markets. The biggest negative for Cybertruck in USA is not its looks, but that it won't be high enough. They like to sit high and be able to look over the roofs of cars in front. Tesla Model 2 will be imported into USA in small numbers.
Mmmm...Danish pastries!
Location location location on back woods redneck Mississippi we got rutted roads potholes an storm drains leaves an pine needles in th road makes road kill had ta spot HA
@@neo1267 yeah. Problem is that Poland and France, are not the countries that are known for producing the highest quality of any goods. That goes for cars as well. Germany, West Denmark, are the top of the list. Italy, Poland and France are in the bottom.
When it comes to Tesla and EV’s in General, Electric Viking presents the Best and most Comprehensive Insight on TH-cam. Thanks
Absolutely agree with you Sam. People in general have no idea what is underway with EVs in the world. I, for one, will be up for this Tesla when it's available here in Australia. Until then, I have my BYD Atto 3 and I'm very proud to be a part of what is happening. The BYD experience is quite something and I do not for a second regret my decision. I'm sure I'll feel the same when I take possession of the new, smaller and more cost effective Tesla when it is launched.
Assist th ex Elle ration of th transition by tweet Mr Elon tell him u have landfor giga factory with electric money king dump trucks an electric bulldozers on th land
Good 👀 n out ty
As someone who has repaired conventional cars in frustration most of my life it is like a breath of fresh air to see manufacturing design finally push the boundaries - For a long time now I have questioned why we don't have cars built simpler with less ' I mean why have we not had cars years ago that were controlled by a joystick on the door panel ?
You are wrong. Now it's 2024
By the time when the EV has taken over from ICE as you predict, what would the price of electricity and will the grids handle it?
I think they will be paintless, like the cybertruck. The paintshop is both costly and a production speed limiter. Perhaps anodized to get a few different metallic colors. But no paint.
Wow. What a good idea. I had never considered anodising instead of painting, but it is probably the best idea I've heard of for YEARS !
Anodized.genius concept! Way to go😂😂😂😂😂
Hey Sam, I agree with a lot of what you're saying, except I think the model 2 will just be one car: a small hatchback/crossover. That's the functionality people need at that price point.
Thank you for the video.
Also, well done on thinking through the possible scenarios / implications that will affect future pricing in Europe, USA, and China.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Another great video Sam. Everything you said makes sense
Glad you enjoyed it
Sounds fantastic! The long range SUV height one might be just what I’ve been waiting for.
Hopefully
If we can convince the US to get away from big cars, it will work. I have a Smart for2 ED in the US and love it. But very small cars aren't popular here. They are smaller than the old road boats of the '60 and '50s, but still big. I love my Tesla Model Y also, but it seem big and bulky in comparison to the Smart.
It will also have V2G, no issues with LMFP batteries as they can be charged and discharged through 0-100% cycles. This allows part 2 of the transition to renewable - storge of energy during off peak periods to be used during peaks.
I like your thinking. I generally agree with everything you're saying except that this new vehicle will also be made in Europe as that is a lucrative market, where large cars historically had difficulty.
Thank you!
You're welcome!
Hopefully it will have an option for a spare tyre
Wow, a real revelation, I hope it all comes to be. Very much looking forward to 2023, seems like with Tesla every year there is something significant to look forward to. Despite Tesla’s big push into expanding their SC station network globally I still think it must grow even faster than it is now. I follow the growth esp. in the US and growth rate needs to increase, lots of permits for new stations but many languish for months before construction or expire. Some ‘coming’ locations also suddenly disappear from their SC map, one of them twice in the past year or so in a nearby city but a 24 stall one under construction two blocks from my home. With Elon saying SC stations will open up to non-Tesla EVs rate of growth must grow faster imho. Of the half-dozen stations within 9 miles of my home the utilization bar charts on the Tesla screen shows near saturation nearly 18 hours a day. I see a huge increase in the no. of Teslas in my area this year and in the past month, I predict much more as gas is expensive in SCal. Solar panels, EVs and net metering/TOU rates, lots of sunshine makes economic sense if you have your own home.
Sam- In the US, in the 1960s, the Volkswagon Beatle and the VW Bus, were the universal low cost vehicles. Their air cooled engines could be repaired by any mechanic with basic skills. (I observed a student at Cal Poly, completely disassemble a VW engine, rebuild it, put it back into the car and drive it away first try.)
My direct experience was with a Beatle, which I drove all over northern Europe in 1965. My father bought it in Germany. Under powered, at 36 horsepower. (I got a ticket once, for entering a freeway, a mile ahead of a pickup truck, which must have been going at least seventy mph. The pickup swerved around my VW. Observed by an officer, who gave me a ticket, for a hazardous turn to the left.
The TESLA Model 2 needs to be the same low-cost car, for students, young people and the world, to eliminate the over one billion ICE cars polluting the planet.
The 500 Chinese companies, producing minicars, have the prices way down, below $5,000 USD, but those cars won't sell well in the US, or meet the crash standards.
General motors can only afford to sell Hummers and Cadillacs. Ford can only survive selling expensive pickup trucks. TESLA needs to provide a super VW bug equivalent for the 2020s, that will move the world to electric.
COP 27 is saying that 1.5 degrees warming is already gone, and the world is heading for 2.7 degrees global warming, with the hundred year weather extreme happening
every week.
The only car I can see in my future, I currently own both a TESLA Model 3 with FSD and a Hyundai NEXO fuel cell, is the apocalypse-ready mini cybertruck.
Bulletproof, Hazmat protected and floats.
Actually, I would go stronger on this. Tesla (to me) are a software and charger company primarily. They have also focused on how to build EVs from day one and are at an unbelievably advanced level on how to make cars in a skateboard world. I think a model Z, small SUV will be the most important model going forward, but the same skateboard will be used for the model 2, a new small roadster (mx-5 size) and a smaller EU sized pick up truck. The current one is just too big for the EU needs. The new small platform and casting method is key. To survive, the other OEMs have to follow.
Actually, I would go stronger on this. Tesla IS a software, charging, robotics, manufacturing, and artificial general intelligence juggernaut.
@@thestonksmarket1897 agreed. The making of cars is just a way of linking everything together.
Id love a mini cytruck in usa as well. Not sure if theres enough difference between a hatchback m2 and a suv on the same platform, how much suv could you really achieve?
@@taylorhray True, depends on how small is small, I doubt its going to be fiesta sized.
Car company rule one : small cars equals small profit.
I hope Tesla succeed with a small car, UK roads need them.
Affordable EV's that more people can afford are needed badly by people all over the world, so I hope Tesla can pull this off with the Model 2.
…………. I wouldn’t bet against th Tesla team or their fearless overworked leader
@@michaelstarkey9745 Really, the challenge is profitability of a 25k car.
And what will the price be for the model 2 here in Australia????
The MG4 is its real competition now, I reckon their hand was forced.
Competition is only coming for ICE-CARS 😉🙃
The limit is still battery supply. Is battery ramping up fast enough for these unit counts?
As soon as the Tesla "Model 2" with LFP cells comes out I'm IMMEDIATELY placing an order.
You will have time to save enough money to pay cash if you start in January 2023 and give yourself 5 years
“End the ICE age for good.” What a line
Stop th dinosaur extraction
Launch order as I understand it is and in this order - Cyber Truck, Semi, Model 2, then Roadster. Is this correct?
Man I cannot wit for this version to come to the US. It will for sure sell like crazy
Don't hold your breath.....US wants big vehicles - not small ones. Cybertruck will be the next big thing for Tesla in the US
@@gerrywithaG agreed but I still think a smaller and cheaper SUV than the Model Y will outsell the Cybertruck 2x. Time will tell. Let’s revisit in say 3 years when both should be in full production
@@richardmorin4518 I think a lower price on the Model Y is more likely down the road versus a smaller version. They already have the Y and X - I think a SUV version of the Cybertruck would sell better than a smaller version of the Model Y (IMHO). But who knows....the more choices the better
@@gerrywithaG I agree with you. Lower the price of the Y and have an R1S fighter based on the CT.
There's a market for smaller cars, but in the US, larger cars are a bigger part of the market.
Speculative drawing at 16:47 looks amazing! Hats off the artist. As a Toyota fanboy .....their lack of action on EV's is killing me. They had a great start with the all electric Rav4 and they blew it.
Model 2 it must be. After all it cleverly fits with Elon's other model names: 2 S 3 X Y . Range of 300 miles {= 483 km} roughly equals the highway range of my present beloved 2007 Honda Fit. Good enough even in winter. I eagerly await further news. Many thanks, Sam !
Could also be called the model B so we would get BS3XY.
Tesla Model 2 also fits nicely with the Ford Model T, which changed automotive history for ever.
Tesla's lineup will be an acronym for "sexy cars" with the Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Model A, Roadster, Semi.
*EDIT* They can eg. extend that to a model 4 and U. for "sexy cars for you" acronym.
fit gang!
Or Model AF
My problem is the model 3 feels like a $29,000 car, not a $45,000. I own one. The interior is very cheap. And I own a LR version and can't imagine a car with less range either. No clue how a cheaper tesla will feel.
I would love to see a comparison between tesla employees income, stock options, and benefits compared with unionized employees.
Do you k ow how the buy back will happen? Do they target the big buyers for the highest percentage. Confused
Great video, thanks! I too think that things will move faster and faster. This would also be in line what people like Tony Seba (see this TH-cam channel) keep saying: it'll follow an S-curve. Both for the adoption of the new, but also the decline of the old will follow a similar curve. Certain legacy companies have very little time to get their game together if they want to continue to exist.
Toyota still remains somewhat of a mystery to me: it's lagging horribly, yet at least one day they had a huge amount of the required skills and knowledge in house. Just the thought that the company that brought us the Prius (hate it or love it, doesn't matter) is lagging so much when it comes to serious EV products is just hard to believe..
Neva before seen pace of innovation
@Ethan8 Very good point about Toyota. Several videos from reliable automotive TH-cam channels have mentioned that Toyota thought it would be hybrids until the later switch to hydrogen. The implication was that the switch to full battery electric vehicles (or the pace of the switch) was a bit of a surprise to them.
Hope you're right. I scooped up some TSLA today!
Given all the things that are going for Tesla now, is it likely that Tesla will maybe overtake brands like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft in terms of revenue and overall worth in the near future.
Does anyone know this?
Of course they will.🚀🤔
Choam
I’d love someone to explain why they think the Tesla Model 2 release will kill gas cars !!!!!!
I believe electric cars are the future , I currently drive an Ev & have done so for 5 years.
But I’m very sorry to say at this moment in time I’m seriously considering going back to a petrol car.
Here in the uk it is actually not worth going electric unless it’s a company car or you have solar at home.
The price of charging an Ev has skyrocketed in the last 12 months. Dealers & other Ev owners need to start being honest around the cost of owning & driving an Ev. I myself have saved thousands of pounds over the last 5 years through driving an Ev.
But now in 2022 with standard home electric being £0.34 per kw & most public AC chargers costing anything from £0.35p to £0.65p per kw & DC Rapid chargers costing anything from £0.69p to £1.00 per kw the cost of running an Ev has gone above that of a petrol car.
If you do the proper calculations around cost of charging your Ev you will soon realise you are not really saving money.
There was recently a test done by I think whatcar.
A Vauxhall corsa E against a Vauxhall corsa petrol both driven in convoy on a 220 mile trip from Leeds. They filled the petrol corsa up at the motorway services which is the most expensive place to fill a petrol car up at , at the cost of £1.99 per litre & they filled the corsa E up at one of the cheapest rapid chargers in the uk at the cost of £0.69p per kw.
The corsa E cost £9.60 more in electric than the petrol car did in petrol.
That’s crazy , Especially when you could fill the petrol car up at nearly any other garage for £0.40p at least cheaper but you couldn’t really find a cheaper rapid charger so in the real world you would save more than that.
They also tested the bmw i4 M50 against a Bmw M440i & again the petrol bmw was £5.50 cheaper than the Ev version.
I know Ev owners will be saying but I only pay £0.10p on the octopus go cheap night tariff to charge my Ev.
But that’s not entirely true is it Ev owners. Because you may get 6 hours of cheap charging from 23:30 to 05:30 but you pay £0.10p more for your day time Electric eg the next 18 hours of the day at the cost of £0.44p per kw instead of the government cap of £0.34p per kw. So for a proper calculation cost of charging your Ev you need to add the extra you pay during the other 18 hours onto your Ev costs. You must also remember for every pound you pay for electric charging you only actually get £0.85p of electric in your car as you lose around 15% in the transfer.
Now let’s more on to the myth of you’ll save on maintenance with an Ev.
This is partly true & false older electric cars need little servicing compared to petrol cars. But if you buy new for the first 5 years of ownership there is hardly any saving from maintenance. The reason behind this if you don’t have your Ev serviced every year you will lose your warranty. And the cost is roughly the same as a petrol car. Like Ev’s the first year to the 4th year the only difference in servicing is oil & filter. If you look at the MG service package there is £2.00 difference in monthly cost between an Ev package over the petrol cars package. Petrol cars do start to be more expensive after the fourth service if you use the main dealer. But most people don’t take older petrol cars to the main dealer after there warranty has run out. This is where it gets a bit more awkward for Ev owners as you get a 8 year warranty on the battery & motor you still need to have it serviced by the main dealer to keep that warranty for the 8 years. Because of this it is more Likely to cost you more in maintenance for your Ev as most people don’t take 7 / 8 year old cars to main dealers for a service. Then there is car insurance Ev are more expensive to insure than there petrol counterparts.
Over the years the uk government has stopped all grants to private buyers. The £5000.00 grant got dwelled down to £1500.00 & has now gone. The charger grant has also gone. Free chargers have now more or less vanished. With April 2023 fast approaching & the government removing the cap home electric is estimate to rise from the £0.34p per kw to £0.51p per kw & public chargers will go up as well so Rapid chargers will be at least £1.00 per kw.
So like I said unless you have a company car or you have solar at home your Ev if not at this moment cost you more to run than a petrol car come April 2023.
Then there is the cost of buying an Ev. Let’s say you buy one of the cheapest Ev’s on the uk market a Vauxhall Corsa E ultimate this will cost you £10,000 more than the petrol Vauxhall Corsa ultimate to buy , but in real terms it will cost you £13,000 more. If you look at Vauxhall’s finance because the Ev is £10,000 more to buy you will pay around £3,000 more in interest. So you Ev now has cost you actually £13,000 more than a petrol one but remember you need a home charger too the average cost since the grants removal is around £1200.00 so your already in the hole for an extra £14200.00 because you bought an electric car. Lets say you electric is free for life & you do 10,000 miles a year it would take you around 8 years to get that money back if you didn’t pay a penny for you electric.
But in todays market it will most likely cost you more to run the ev & come April it will 100% cost you more to run an Ev.
The time has passed where you can put your fuel saving costs towards the extra cost of the car & with no grant anymore you will have to shoulder that burden yourself.
So please all new people looking at an Ev do the calculations yourself if your getting an Ev to save money , because you will not save anything.
I must make a comment about Tesla I have owned two Tesla’s & they were nice cars. I was a Tesla fan boy but not anymore for the below reasons.
1. Too many broken promises.
I have paid for FSD twice & it has never been operational even tho Elon said it would be very soon.
Tesla should transfer it to your new car if you’ve paid for it & it hasn’t been activated yet.
The supercharging network we were told back in the day you buy a Tesla & some of that money goes to build the supercharging network.
I get Tesla opening up the network to get uk funding towards it , but when you have spent £80,000 plus for your Tesla it’s not right anyone can have access to it , at the same rate as you for just £10.00 per month & can just pay for one month & cancel it. It’s a betrayal of the people that have spent tens of thousands buying tesla for access to the superchargers.
New car prices Tesla / Elon always said the more cars we sell will bring down the prices of tesla cars. Tesla make more per car than any other main stream manufacturer. Tesla also put up prices in country’s that have great sales & brings down prices in country’s with bad sales numbers.
This goes against what Tesla has said in the past.
Even tho tesla make more per car than any other manufacturer they put up the price of the model 3 standard in the uk from £38,500 to £48,500 that’s a rise of £10,000. Tesla / Elon said the model 3 would be affordable £48,500 for a starting price & base model isn’t affordable & it shouldn’t be in the 50k car bracket it’s not worth that. It should be a max of £35,000.
The roadster has been promised for years now & the cyber truck but they are know where to be seen.
I think you are right in a lot of this. I do have a fear. A lot of the inflation we currently experiencing is due to fossil fuels jacking up price for profits, because they, an oligopoly, can. We are a captive market. Mostly.
But my issue is Tesla. I am worried Tesla is going to corner a huge section of the market place. I don’t mind them leading the way and showing that it can be done, and done very profitably. But we need competition in the EV market to force the prices even lower then what you are talking about for the Model 2. So everyone that needs a vehicle can afford one. Besides it would be a very boring world if all vehicles looked like a Tesla. They need strong competition, to keep them sharp! To keep prices low. To keep cars fun!
Agree but legacy does not have engineers that are worth a shit. So it costs way more to produce a car. Time, labor and design are not legacy talents. It has been 20 plus years with no new engineering. Just new sheet metal
@@b4804514 I think a few of them can make it threw. However don’t limit your thinking to just the legacy field. EV start ups will play a big role as well
I can’t offer a test drive in a model 3
Sandy Monroe already said “the Chinese are coming.” And that includes Tesla. And BYD. And imagine, when you can buy them used. This changes everything.
Love your video! In my opinion, I don’t think there will be a 250kw charge rate on small sized batteries. There’s nothing close to that on the market right now. However, if it’s 150kw, DC charging should be very quick. Very exciting if this car is produced and sold over the world. Again, thanks for a great detailed video!
I think it'll be closer to 150-170kw like the LFP 2022 Model 3!
I agree. The base Model 3 with LFP tops out at 170 kW charge rate for a ~58 kWh pack. That's a charge rate of about 3C. 150 kW charge rate for a 50 kWh pack sounds realistic.
@@iamjoehill I think you are onto something here. I still think a 30kwh battery won’t be as high though. New Fiat 500e peaks around 85kw. I wonder what the charge curve would look like for a small battery size like that? 50kw lfp totally agree!
@@tbnzet Exactly! 30 or 40kwh battery? Don’t think so. Maybe 85-100kw peak?
@@jpnw3272 Yeah, I also think the smaller packs will peak at around 100 kW.
As the owner of a Model 3 with a "250 kW" peak charge rate - I think the focus on peak values are rather silly. I've maybe seen close to it a couple of times, but only in the summer with a warm battery and very low state of charge. And then the peak is only for a few minutes. In the real world the charging curve is more interesting, and the behavior with the battery at lower temperatures. But we probably have to accept the focus on these peak values as all brands use it for marketing 🙃😊
Do you think Will this model 2 be made in the States as well?
The batteries could be CATL Sodium-ion, that are cheaper than LFP, and they are supposed to mass produce in 2023 as you have mentioned in a recent video, if I remember correctly. I think the price will be close to 30k in USA because of Foxconn starting to build their Model B and the Fisker PEAR, same skateboard, in Ohio in 2024 at just under 30k. That will be Tesla real competition in that segment not GM.
Has CATL successfully developed a Sodium-ion pack? I remember this being talked about, and if so WOW that is a game changer. Sodium supply is everywhere
Sodium-ion will cost the same because is heavier than lfp for the same power so you need more of it and also at the end the car will eat more energy
If my memory is correct, didn’t Tesla buy land about 3 miles from current Shanghai? Could this be a possible assembly location for a Model 2? Could you do a part two researching info on this site? Thanks and congrats on over 100000 subscribers. Good work.😊
That's pretty much fact rather than speculation
Good video. I think most of it is probably on target. Except I think there will be, or at least should be, only 1 variation. I don't think there will be an "SUV" variation - there is no such thing as an "SUV" that small anyway. And there should only be entry-level variation only - standard range, single motor. Keep it simple and affordable! Other variations are completely unnecessary and only allow Tesla to distract and upsell what is not needed. They will only make the more expensive variants and never the entry-level variant, and the $25K Model 2 will be just as much of a myth as the $35K Model 3 was. Enough. Keep it simple - 1 variation only, keep it truly affordable, and truly roll it out to the masses! By the time you have to buy the paint color you want, the wheels you want, etc., the price is already higher than the entry level price anyway. Just keep it at that. 1 variation, a few options, the end.
What about the Crossover price? Will able to burn gas or strictly electric power?
I would be extremely surprised if it came out before 2025ish. Too much going on right now with FSD, Cybertruck, Model Y, Semi, and Roadster
I could see it in China first, they’re not involved with CT, Roadster, Semi, etc..
Agreed Kevin, there's no way a smaller vehicle will be produced next year. Tesla is so far behind with Roadster, semi and truck to focus on a high volume lower cost vehicle
It might be unveiled in 2023, start low production in 2024 and ramp up as we move to 2025 and beyond.
@@georodop I very highly doubt that. I don’t even think Tesla has designed it yet, let alone had enough time to complete a prototype
@@kevinsaint20 Sure, they don't have a prototype yet but it's a high priority now and as announced during the Q3 earnings call the product design team is focused on this now. So, unveiling a prototype during 2023 should be feasible.
I do contract work at an auto repair shop and fear these guys days are numbered as the repair / maintenance bills on ICE vehicles are astronomical.
I drive my no maintenance T car to the shop and park in the back so it won't be seen to avoid issues.
ICE cars days are numbered and it's coming soon.
Good Content.
Prayers for the wife.
Mine had stage 4 cancer as well 30 years ago and lived another 26 years after treatment.
Best wishes.
Sam, considering how much you peddle Chinese BEV manufacturers, you need to do an in-depth video on the US ban of chips to China. I suggest starting your research by watching Mark Moss' video titled China Was Just Sent Back to the Dark Ages.
That totally contradicts his narrative, so it's never going to happen, my friend. I'll eat my shoes if he does a video on that.
I doubt it would be 30kwh. this isnt a 2014 nissan leaf. I reckon 50kwh minimum.
It won't convince the 'sceptics' (actually denialists if you look up the definition of a sceptic) of anything. The ones I have encountered have their brains welded to the ICE vehicle to the extent that nothing will dislodge it. They will always find something about EVs to whinge about. I've even had more than one complain about the lack of engine noise. I told one that if that was such a big issue, he can make "brrmmm brmmm" noises.
One concept I really like from your video was the notion of the end of the ICE Age. Consider that stolen. 😉🤣
I have a friend just like yours - he can't get past the lack of engine noise. He actually told me my Tesla had "no soul". FYI, using the 'ICE age' pun to describe what's going to happen to dinosaur fueled vehicles has been around for a while. Our beloved Viking didn't coin the term, but he is still awesome.
they can walk then😂
Yeah, but can his car fart?
Couldn’t agree with you more Sam. Tesla has started the ball rolling. Hopefully it will bring the prices of EVs down. New battery technology and chemistry will also help to make that possible. EVs are still in their infancy so as they mature the prices will be down to a reasonable amount for the average consumer. Thanks Sam for your informative videos. Love watching your content.
How range does ice car lose in cold weather or high speeds.
This hatch will make Tesla king
If the m3p battery is 4.1v does that mean the life expectancy will be less than the 3.2v catl LiFePO4s in the 2022 model3 here in Oz?
You need the horse before the cart. Meaning, this scale dictates mass charging stations around the world able to provide charging from sources; and charging stations that truly work, unlike today with so many NOT (not talking Teslas).
Also, many businesses will need them for employees, especially renters or high density areas where parking does not allow charging. These are big obstacles that must get addressed now, first.
No way will base model be 30kWh. Most cars in supermini class are shipping with 50kWh. I think Tesla will do the same but have a lighter higher range car. The MG4 has shown it can be done for under $30k.
That sounds like quite the throw away item.
Great work Sam, the one thing I think you missed is there will be an even smaller cheaper version by 2030, that's where you get to 20 million.
You summed it up fine. Quicker cheaper china development. Localization of optimized mass production. Add one more, short transportation of raw resources to the customer. Equals economic environmental clean mobility for all people. Thanks for your dedication to getting it right with a positive benchmark.
Model2 performance would be the golf GTI of ev's
Agree the small Tesla will become the number 1 ICE killer.
Can't wait.
This all sounds reasonable