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Dr. Pigskin
เข้าร่วมเมื่อ 30 ก.ย. 2020
NFL video essays and livestreams
Yes, you should go for it on 4th down
Thanks for watching! If you want to check out more of my work, click here: linktr.ee/dr_pigskin
The Athletic article by Ben Baldwin: www.nytimes.com/athletic/2144214/2020/10/28/nfl-fourth-down-decisions-the-math-behind-the-leagues-new-aggressiveness/
Music courtesy of HOME, Harris Heller, TechnoAXE and Three Chain Links
Clips courtesy of the NFL, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions. Please spare me Roger, I need my bag!
The Athletic article by Ben Baldwin: www.nytimes.com/athletic/2144214/2020/10/28/nfl-fourth-down-decisions-the-math-behind-the-leagues-new-aggressiveness/
Music courtesy of HOME, Harris Heller, TechnoAXE and Three Chain Links
Clips courtesy of the NFL, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Philadelphia Eagles and the Detroit Lions. Please spare me Roger, I need my bag!
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I missed this damn
Pitchers and QBs are the only athletes with a win/loss “stat”.
NO WAY I MISSED THIS 😥
This video is why i appreciate someone like dan campbell
Good faith question: how much are 4th down statistics inflated by 4th and 1 QB sneaks which are kinda automatic. Especially with the Eagles’ tush push, a team you featured heavily in your analysis Also, is it any coincidence that the most infamous 4th down failures where that Chiefs-Chargers game and the NFC Championship, games where they’re playing against truly elite teams with great defenses that won’t give up 4th downs so easily? What if we look at it from the other side: how many 4th downs have been allowed by the Chiefs defense?
I remember when i was watching the vikings and lions match up for the first time this season. If I remember correctly the lions went for it on 4th and long somewhere within their own 30. They did not convert and the vikings scored pretty much immediately. Everybody watching the game went crazy calling Campbell a terrible coach and that they were crazy for not punting. Then I explained that the statistical chance of a team scoring a touchdown doesn't really increase all that much between your own 40 (where the punt likely would've been returned to) and the opposing 30 (where the turnover on downs would occur). Yes it increases but not nearly as much as you think it would. Essentially regardless of punting or not, the vikings would have an easy path to a field goal, and a decent shot at a touchdown. However the aspect that most people hadn't considered was the time of possession. Yes the vikings scored immediately, but so did the lions following the vikings TD. The lions won by 3. Imagine had they punted it but the vikings still ended up scoring. The only difference would be several minutes off the clock that the lions didn't have to score.
If you're in Georgia, just go to Zaxby's, you wont need or miss Chik-Fil-a or Popeyes
00:16:12 - Kickoff 00:21:20 - FG Bucs, 0 - 3 00:27:10 - Terry 00:30:05 - TO on downs 00:50:23 - 4th down 00:55:19 - TD Commanders, 7 - 3 01:17:30 - FG Commanders, 10 - 3 01:20:46 - Baker runs 01:27:06 - TD Bucs, 10 - 10 01:29:42 - Halftime 01:50:16 - FG Commandeers, 13 - 10 02:02:10 - TD Bucs, 13 - 17 02:14:46 - 4th down 02:22:39 - TO on downs 02:27:47 - Fumble 02:32:36 - TD Commanders, 20 - 17 02:41:54 - FG Bucs, 20 - 20 02:55:19 - Ekeler 03:04:27 - FG Commanders, 23 - 20
Thank you for the timestamps, great work as always!
I agree running the ball is more important. Running the ball just frees up so much space and time so that even an average QB will be “good” when they drop back they have more time, less pressure; and the defense will be more stretched.
coaches win championships
Big difference: the Lions train hard for 4th down. They have a play books just for 4th down.
14:33 my favourite part about this chart is that statistically; the last thing you’d do is punt. But in reality it’s what they did 😂
I love that the lions are the ones who are bringing this to the forefront. Sometimes it doesn’t pay off. There are times I’m screaming at the television WHY WOULDNT WE TAKE THE FIELD GOAL - but so many times it pays off and it’s part of the reason we do minutes teams this year. Because anytime a time was about to put us 3 and out; we went for it anyways and got it!
Thank you for this! Always go for ot like Big Dyck Coach Campbell!
Why the lions are about to become a dynasty yeah I said it
I'm sorry I can't move past how you pronounced vague
So Campbell watches Little Sheldon.
Man… that Jayden Daniels take didn’t end well
Brady, Mahomes, Brady, Stafford, Mahomes, Mahomes... the last 6 SB winners. Since 2014 there has only been a single SB that didn't have Pat Mahomes, Tom Brady, or Peyton Manning playing in it... Tell me more about how the NFL overvalues QBs 🙄
When you fully commit to the idea, it fundamentally changes the way you call plays on downs 1-3. Instead of needing better than 3 yards per down to get a first down, you only need 2.5 per down. This suddenly makes the running game a much more valuable part of the offense again, and allows play callers to be much less predictable on earlier downs. I've been banging this drum for a long time. Certain situations might still call for using the kicking game, but coaches should be afraid of not being aggressive enough, not the other way around.
One play that I think set 4th downs back for a decade was a Pats Colts game. Pats had the ball with a small lead late in the 4th and had 4th and 2 in their own territory. They went for it, were short by a foot b/c the RB bobbled the catch, and then Manning drove the short field for the winning TD. The media was killing Belicheck the next week saying that any other coach would be fired for that. The thing is, even if they punt, Manning would probably drive the entire field to win that game. Brady should be able to get 2 yards to win a game in that situation. I think that if they had made it, 4th down attempts would have gone up in the copycat NFL
Another aspect is the it desensitizes the players to the “stakes” of a 4th down. Come late game it just another attempt that they feel confident on converting.
The Rams example at 10:11 does not support your case. They needed a field goal and a touchdown to win, with only forty seconds. That depended on an onside kick regardless of them scoring a touchdown. So the strategy there was get the three points as soon as possible to leave your offense with enough time should the low probability onside kick be successful.
29:28 Aged like milk
Big 4th down! I love the aggressive mindset. Watching my Steelers run-run-pass-punt drives me mad. As a new Lions fan I can't pretend I've been with them through the hard times but I sure do love to watch them play.
All I get out of this is "Dan Campbell Good." Go Lions.
Little known fact about Dr. Pigskin: Orthodontist.
It makes the third down more valuable. If you never go for it on fourth, the defense can easily figure out what you're gonna do.
Going for it helps the defense stay rested also.
Who is this dude using Summoning Salt’s intro music!?
I have always hated teams not going for it. Offenses that are capable should be going with short yardage and anywhere from their own 40 and closer
Summoning salt at 2:50 was a surprise
What about 4th down tricky plays ? Maybe fake a punt or FG and go for a 1st down can be more successful than a straight, use only the offence team for 4th down
I'm not a huge fan of football but I always thought playing the 4th was smart. It's going to backfire sometimes but... SEND IT
I worry that if it becomes popular and useful, the powers that be will outlaw any play other than a field goal or punt on fourth down, much like MLB outlawed the shift.
Dude yu verbalize too much. This is a man's channel. men dont want to hear all that blabber. Keep it concise and show images./videos. later
No wonder you can't even spell "you". REAL MEN CAN'T SPELL, REAL MEN CAN'T HEAR THE NUANCES AND SPECIFICS OF ARGUMENTATION. Just say you're a crayon eater, bub.
Great video, hey, why do you pronounce 'vague' like a slur ? 🤣
If Goff ain’t in your top ten rn your stupid
Aw hell yeah, We're Finally Landingg
I've largely agreed with this, though without the numeric backing
Ask the Lions how that worked out last year. Take a good close look.
They had their best season in years?
I've been saying for years (before I even knew it was a new up-and-coming trend) that going for it on 4th down was probably better in a lot of cases. My dad always just looked at me in confusion and said it just wasn't the way football worked
You punt to make the other team drive the whole length of the field and try to force turnovers. Not every team has Justin Herbert or pat mahomes at QB 90% of qbs r more likely to turn the football over on a 90 yard drive then put up 7. You take your points because the nfl is the most competitive league out there and almost all the games are only separated by one possession so taking points when u have them is a must
As a Chargers fan I was waiting for Staley to be mentioned all video and I wasn't disappointed. Kelce catching that touchdown in OT still lives rent free in my head. And the Week 18 Raiders game. And the playoff meltdown in Jacksonville. Had a friend tell me that he was ruining the NFL after his first year, and I guess Staley agreed given how much he pulled back on 4th downs the following years. He had numerous failings as a head coach, but his 4th down decision making was not one of them.
20 years ago in Backyard Football, I never punted and always tried on fourth down. I also exclusively shot three-pointers in Backyard Basketball. I find it hilarious that the playing styles I adopted as a ten year old who never watched professional football or basketball are becoming more mainstream.
Dan Campbell is what I thought Brian Daboll would be 🫠