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thx John, super informative 👍

There are no monetary theorist on the current MPC committee. That's why there is a tendency to ignore money. Money is the economy's fuel

Although I am retired and not from an economic background, I at least got the gist of the Mr Stein's discussion. Thank you it was illuminating.

CBDC's should be reserved for use as a "Wholesale CBDC" between banking institutions, government, etc. Logically this is the place it should be adopted. This will give governments tighter control over its banking and financial institutions, operations, management, and development. A CBDC forced on the general public is a useless nuisance for that public and will do more political & economic harm than good.

Britain isn't really comparable to Japan, with very differently structured economies, one asset & service sector based trading with similar countries, the other industrially based trading largely with a booming China in this period. The bursting of the artificial UK property bubble ending in the 2008 Crash & the later covid crash caused a large fall in M2. What should the BoE have done to maintain stability & stave off a depression?

RFK Jr is at least highlighting this, and the massive rises under both Trump & Biden. Obviously in large part due to covid policies, but also with the most egregiously named "Inflation Reduction Act" pumping a further $900bn into the economy. Unfortunately voters don't usually sit up & take notice till things get really, really bad, like in Argentina.

The disastrous 1970s period started the rot for heavy industry in all regions of the UK, with membership of the EEC & sudden exposure to more efficient competition delivering the final blow. And once that industry was gone there was never going to be any way back. Like so many old industrial areas, my area imploded & is now only kept afloat by fiscal transfers from the South-East and low paid MacJobs in the service sector. And about 30% of the population there has left, more if you discount the large numbers of poor South Asian immigrants who have come in. There's no way back now, as entrepreneurs are never going to set up in some post-industrial hellhole, where all useful skills & educated people are gone. They'll go to the Oxbridge area or South-East.

I always thought my country of birth was OK until 1998

Yes. Finally the fat from the empire loots ran out. It was low for decades, but the last spending spree and diversions to friends of Tories finally drained all of it.

As you have pointed out in the past, finance and entrepreneurial businesses have been held back by recapitalisation. The obsession of successive UK governments with punishing oil and banks (former engines of growth) with taxes on bonuses, "windfall profits", and the like, has also stifled UK growth. Also, in practice, Conservative fiscal policy has been close to what Gordon Brown/Alistair Darling SAID that they would do. Fiscal retrenchment, insofar as it occurred, has often taken the form of tax rises. And the tax system has continued to become more complicated. There have been some good policies, but mostly at the margin. There's nothing magical about the "Conservative" name. The policy approach of the Thatcher/Major years is needed to kickstart UK growth, not just the party names. The few policies that Labour have announced are likely to make matters even worse, e.g. tightening up UK labour market regulation (a rare strength of the UK economy, hence its low unemployment rate).

Except london most of the places are becoming economically desolated it's a concern for 🇬🇧

Looking at the history of Argentina priority should be stability ( social, political.).dollarization cannot function smoothly if the financial institutions are not cooperative.

*To listen to the Q&A session - see the full version of the video uploaded on 8th March 2024*

Excellent thanks for uploading the full video. The q&a from hanke were great. The time was short, and he was very clear with Argentina’s problemas, specially talking about “anomy”. but if the anomy is the rule, a dollarization would not help with that, a new law will force a dedollaarization like what happened in Zimbabwe. I still think a currency board will suit Argentina much better than a dollarization, and would be easier and faster to implement. Argentina needs to respect the rule of law and a currency board could help more with that than a dollarization. But it’s an academic talk, and Argentina needs as soon as possible a currency reform, a dollarization or a currency board.

Thank you for that. A couple of things of note to think about.

You never replaced a hyperinflating Yugoslav dinar with the Deutschmark, Steve. That's malicious slander. According to Wiki: "Between 1992 and 1994, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) experienced the second-longest period of hyperinflation in world economic history.[1] This period spanned 22 months, from March 1992 to January 1994. Inflation peaked at a monthly rate of 313 million percent in January 1994." So the hyperinflation was five years gone when you worked on destabilizing Yugoslavia by switching Montenegro, but not Serbia, to the Deutschmark.

Where is the part with the questions from the spectators ? One question was about that the dollarization in arg was unconstitutional so it was easier and faster to create a currency board but hanke said that it doesn’t matter because the constitution says the country need a monetary authority, and he used the example of panama where the monetary authority did emit the balboa but dollarized… and that a currency board will be always in danger in Argentina and would not work because of the “anomy” and thus Argentina need a dollarization to secure the stabilization process, another one was about a currency board will have more adepts from the imf (hanke said it doesn’t matter) and the last one I don’t remember

Should US tax more? Could Fed just write off the check?

You avoided entirely mentioning reduction of taxes on the richest brackets from something like 90% to 0-20% since mid-1900's. No revenue causes deficit.

What assets should do well under these circumstances?

When will different asset classes stop moving together?

What is the importance of the Divisia Index?

How about the Eurodollarists’ criticisms about money supply? How do monetarists address those?

But Hanke also talks about confidence. How does confidence fall under monetarism?

IEA mouthpiece. Utterly worthless.

It is all on purpose. The constitution is a nuisance to the masters of the universe

You need a good captain of the ship especially BOE

Not convinced

I hope people start doing a more forensic assessment of what's happening, like apparently the yield curve inverting in 2019 before the plandemic. all these changes are clearly apart of a grander plan that's been advertised. it's just a matter of piecing together the foul loaf

Great video, well presented

Unfortunately, somehow central banks are "clever" to aim at stable inflation, not at stable price level.

Thank you Prof. Congdon. Respect from the Land of Oz

According to the US Treasury, the budget deficit for 2023 was $1.7 tril. However, the total US debt grew by $2.24 tril for 2023. So your estimate was correct.

Excellent

As for comments above about interest cost as % of spend or interest spend v military spend, just remember the president who in 2018-2020 raised national debt by 33% (!!!!) with one tax cut for the rich…….

Dude did you make any allowance for Ukraine aid spend 2022 v 2023? Not all expenditure is recurring expenditure…..

Any thing used as money should have intrinsic value…non compliance to this leads to problems.. also address riba… see imran hosein what should be money…

Interesting

Just now figuring out the debt is a problem? I've known it for years.The big thinkers have pea brains!

It's so great Uk/USA it can't be repaid. I heard the US national debt was in the trillions.

IMF Solution: basket of currencies

Love it!!!!!!!!!!!

The US national debt is more than $33 trillion, with 38% of it held by foreign entities. The US also has $38 trillion in unfunded Medicare liabilities and $17 trillion in unfunded Social Security liabilities. The US dollar is the dominant reserve currency, backed by its perceived strength, allowing the US to print unlimited dollars as long as the world maintains trust in it. The US dollar is the backbone of US power, and any actions that undermine confidence in the currency threaten to destabilize its position of dominance. Each unilateral sanction imposed by the US risks damaging the stability and credibility of the US dollar, leading to dire consequences for the nation's power and influence. The US is the only country actively undermining the strength of the US dollar. The freezing of Russia's $300 billion currency reserve by Western governments may lead countries to reconsider investing their funds in US Treasury bonds and finding ways to reduce their use of the US dollar. A significant portion of US dollars is held outside the US, estimated at 60-70% of all US dollars in circulation, due to its status as the dominant reserve currency and wide use in international trade and finance. The one trillion dollar trade deficit of the US is a consequence of being the reserve currency, as a strong dollar makes it difficult for US businesses to export goods and services while simultaneously making it easier for other countries to sell to the US. Countries are expending resources and labor making goods and shipping them to the US in exchange for green pieces of paper. The US is sending back mostly empty containers. The US budget deficit is $1.38 trillion in 2022 which must be paid for by selling more Treasury bonds. The interest on this debt is greater than the military budget. To pay the interest on its debt, the government sells more Treasury bonds, leading to a cycle of increasing debt. The US printing of dollars has been exporting inflation in other countries for decades, but will eventually increase US inflation. Raising interest rates to fight inflation decreases consumer and business spending, increases the trade deficit, and higher interest payments on government debt. Other countries will respond to the US raising of interest rate by raising their interest rate, risking global recession. The Plaza Accord addressed this issue in the past, but it will be challenging to implement such measures now. A well-run country collects taxes to fund essential services and infrastructure. In the US political system, wealthy corporations and individuals can lobby for tax breaks. The shortfall in funding for the US government has reached $31 trillion. Instead of collecting taxes from wealthy corporations and individuals, the government pays interest to them. Banks hold Treasury bonds for their safety, liquidity, regulatory compliance, and potential profitability. When interest rates on Treasury bonds rise sharply, the decrease in bond values reduces liquidity and makes it harder for banks to raise cash quickly. This causes depositors to lose confidence, triggering a bank run. In response to the current bank run, the government is issuing Treasury bonds to raise funds to compensate depositors for any lost funds. There are $19 trillion in deposits in US banks. The estimated unrealized loss on US banks' financial assets is $1.94 trillion, while the total size of their equity is $2.1 trillion. SVB had taken a $15 billion loss, while their capital is $16 billion. Around 2,315 of the 4,800 banks are currently sitting on assets worth less than their liabilities. It's a systemic issue. A similar issue is being played out with risker Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) valued at $12 trillion. The new Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) helps prevent discounted bondholders from taking losses when they have to sell them urgently. The BTFP accepts discounted bonds at face value to be used as pledges for loans to inject more money into the economy. Risking more inflation. It's a Ponzi scheme. Ponzi scheme cannot taper. We reached the can and there is no more road.

Is this what the current administration of the US is trying to do, inflate the debt away? With US debt so astronomical, what type of inflation numbers will be necessary to achieve this? The average Joe is being crushed right now by the current inflation and its rapidity...or is the present administration unaware or just that incompetent? Either way, rough times ahead for everyone other than the uber-rich.

So piercing

As you said it will inflate it's way out of it. Inflate just until the treasury reserve will be revalued to a substantial % of debt or a substantial (100%+) % of interest on debt. The gold reserve. Gold will revalue itself to $20000 or $30000 per ounce (well the $ will revalue itself at 1/20000th - 1/30000th of an ounce) at which point the US can sell it to generate buying pressure in the bond market and do two things simultaneously: lower the debt and push yields down. They dont even have to sell it, just the mere option of doing so should provide a ceiling for gold and a floor for bonds. The only thing that can go (even more catastrophically) wrong is if the treasury opts to sell the gold way too soon. Then there is no limit to how far the $ can fall or how high gold can rise (depending how you look at it). I think the Eurozone, an economy now just over half the size of the US with a larger gold reserve and lower debt level, will do quite well.

Is the US debt more like $41.6tn ($33.7tn plus $7.9tn "Each week, the Federal Reserve publishes its balance sheet, typically on Wednesday afternoon around 4:30 p.m. As of October 25, the Fed’s assets stand at $7.9 trillion."?? XAU LUCK.

brilliant!

Rothschild City of London, Vatican Bank has given the world BRICS

What would you do if you lived in America?