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The EU would be more likely to be in Syria than Ukraine because they are financing Ukraine. Ukraine's interest is to see all the equipment get destroyed rather than see it all end up in Russia but Ukraine cannot pull of an operation like this on short notice so it would need to be someone else such as Israel but that's a major operation, not just an afternoon bombing run.

What!?! No questions involving China? Does China have any interest in Syria at all? Perhaps China will fill the vacuum if Russia has to abandon activities in Africa?

So happy do discover the new channel!

5:50 You act as if Belarus is far away from Ukraine.mobilized, It is not. The war makes a Belarussian uprising utterly impossible -- russia has mobilized, combat ready troops right on (and probably in) Belarus borders. It also has the military necessity to secure Belarussian Installations and its flank overall. Let alone allowing a anti-russian, pro ukrainian country to exist bording both it and ukraine - that is how russia gets swamped in saboteurs etc. Anything happens in Belarus, it is invaded immediately. Would be nice for Ukraine, because those troops come off the front elsewhere. But for the Belarussian people its bad luck. Astonishing failure of analysis on your part.

I've always had good results drawing circles and X's on maps. O|X|O X|O|X O| |X

Don’t virtually all leaders have some kind of gold, silver or bronze parachute though? I bet Zelenskyy had several and if the going ever got tough for Kim Jong-Un I’m sure he could find a nice apartment in China or Madagaskar.

Also you should consider selling your voice to an AI developer company, apparently 😂 it certainly must pay more than academia (or at least ease the such gentle pressure to getting grants)

I happened in Turkey in these days, and there are apparently at least 100k refugees already going back, I think there are immediate consequences on this side. Even the EU is talking about "helping Syrians back to Syria" at the moment. I think this might actually be one of the major consequences of all this. Turkey less able to blackmail the EU with threats of opening the gates for immigrants, and therefore also not getting blackmail money. If immigration becomes even just temporarily, or even just in appearance, less of a pressing issue, the rise of the extreme right in Europe will be reversed, since this is really the only real thing they promise (dumb and unrealistic) solutions to, while the left just preferred to mostly pretend immigration was only good and not a problem in any case. This might mean less chaos in the EU, less pressure to appease citizens that are otherwise pissed because governments do nothing to help with the crazy immigration...and I can imagine that, even if not a first order consequence, Russia might not be happy about this

For a Syria book, could you do a collaboration with a Syria expert?

Good video but it sucks that the human Lines on Maps guy got executed by our machine overlords and replaced 💔

You should promote this channel on your main channel. I watch all your main channel vids but only accidentally stumbled across this on TH-cam.

I think there's some chance the civil war might end soon. The only power remaining in Syria is essentially Turkey. The Kurds are either gonna be crushed or would get trade most of the lands they control for autonomy in the Kurdish majority regions. The Southern rebels and SFA (the ones coming out of al-Tanf) are too small. This leave HTS and SNA one is a Turkish proxy and the other has good relations with Turkey.

THIS IS ONLY THE BEGINNING. THE PROBLEMS IS RUSSIA AND AMERICA. THE SUNNI MUSLIMS ARE TIRED OF THEM,,THEY WANT A JIHADIST COUNTRY WITHOUT RUSSIA AND AMERICA,,, AFGHANISTAN 2.0

20:47 ​@LinesonMapsExtra And I would like to add that a Republican Guard DID EXIST! And it was led by Bashar's brother Maher! It was also known as the Army's 4th Division.

20:47 @LinesonMapsExtra And I would like to add that a Republican Guard DID EXIST! And it was led by Bashar's brother Maher! It was also known as the Army's 4th Division.

Apart from beeing interesting, you are also funny William!😄I hate papers with squares, though I understand the question. I want blank sheets of paper, wether I do design or write text. Btw I'm also alergic to two dimensional "analysis" of things, and it generally gets aggrevated by also making the dimensions into dichotomies. It's generally really dumb, when it comes to social sciences. (I'm an economist / marketeer.) Generally problems are multidimensional, and dimensions are continuos. That's a better starting point, than putting on a mental straightjacket. My two cents worth, as you Americans put it. (I'm Swedish.)

You have to promote this channel more

This whole time we've been told mass migration is temporary and its our moral duty to help them, even though it is irrevocably destroying our countries and way of life. I think the average European, who has already been pretty clear they don't want this. see's the civil war is over, see's Syrians not leaving still living for free at their expense, and it pushes the whole thing over edge into pretty heavy rioting and public disorder

Trump will save Ukraine with the Art of the Deal

wait, so this is the off-the-record channel?

Terrible video…

I subscribed to the second channel just because of that comment

Perfect couchside story!

Hmmm doubt. A human would know why😂

Let us not forget the involvement of the US, Israel and Turkey. Who here thinks the force that pushed the existing government to flee did not get its arms from the three aforementioned nations.

Russian bases to relocate to Lebanon? Seems open for foreign influence.

On the last question about what to do after the Ukraine Russia war is over, a lot of the channels I follow that do deep dives(20-35min) post videos only once a month or two months. That would indeed make sense to your main channel if there isn’t a major conflict going on.

Question! 🙋‍♂️ HTS use to be associated with ISIS then broke that relationship and forced to temp ally with Al-Queda and then for nearly a decade has been making big moves to moderate and distance themselves from those type of groups. What has history shown when such groups finally do come to power? Do they stay moderate or is it usually all mirage to gain support when they were rebels but then revert to their old ways once they have the power? Thanks

The question about the "Republican Guards" is interesting but overlooks the dynamic in Iran, where that organization is not just a military unit, but a self-sustaining entity of its own, with sources of funds and all kinds of extra-legal perks for the truly sick fvcks who form its core. PS: it will be far harder for Iran to rid itself of the Republican Guard than for Italy to rid itself of La Cosa Nostra. PPS: don't be surprised if the Trump administration institutes a similar organization to enforce loyalty to the person/cult rather than to the country/Constitution.

My god, this was the best Q&A I’ve heard on geopolitics or conflict. I look forward to more of these. There are always so many questions in all conflicts and even this conflict will have more questions in the coming weeks and months! So glad you started this new channel, Extra Lines On Maps!

Hey, William. I believe you already know this but I felt it was necessary to point out how complex the situation is regarding the Kurds in Syria. The land grab was very short lived as we all know by this point and actually some strategic land was even lost to the Turkish backed militias in the past few days. Some key differences between the situation of the Kurds in Syria and that of the Kurds in Iraq, setting aside ideological differences, are the facts that right now the Kurds rule over lands that are majority Arab and the areas they control are generally mostly Arabs with Kurds being a large minority in those areas. This situation came to existence due to the war on ISIS giving the YPG an opportunity to seize lands from ISIS that were majority Arab inhabited. This arrangement worked for a while since people weren't too enthusiastic to go back under Assad's rule and the opposition was too weak to claim those lands from the Kurds given they're backed by the US. Now that Assad is gone and the opposition is in power, the sentiment of the Arabs living under Kurdish rule may and probably will change. The question then becomes what will happen. Will most of those Arabs defect and shrink the Kurds' power further or will the US play a proactive role in keeping the status quo as is. There's also Turkey which would do everything in its power to crush the Kurds completely by any means possible. It already occupies many Kurdish lands which it took over militarily from the YPG over the years. Turkey is currently waiting for Trump to take power and withdraw all the US troops from Syria in which case they'll probably launch an all out offensive to seize everything from the Kurds. Turkey is the most important player when it comes to the future of Kurds in Syria and it all hinges on whether Trump will still go ahead with his plan to withdraw all US troops from Syria or change his mind given the new developments in the region. The current status quo was the result of many factors playing together keeping the balance of power as it is today after Trump partially withdrew the US troops from SDF areas back in 2019 and the subsequent Turkish occupation of many lands from the Kurds after which Russia became the mediator between the Kurds and the Turks and Assad's forces along side Russian soldiers were introduced to the buffer areas between Turkey and the Kurds. Now that all but the US have left the area, the future of it all is very unclear.

like the new channel

The biggest problem with a second channel is now you have a golden parachute if the first channel goes south. Therefore the anti-Spaniel rebels will be emboldened to begin a new troll offensive on the comment section there.

I would think it would be in Ukraine's interest to in a strange way, HELP the Russians by NOT aiding the Rebels. The more Russians resources are busy in Syria, that much more those Resouces are not in Ukraine killing Ukrainians. Also it is a bad look for Ukrainuans fighting for their freedom helping potential terrorist even if they were trying to overthrow a vicious dictator. Ukraine shouldn't go anywhere near a guy that was ISIS even if he is "reformed" and would not oppress political and ethnic minorities. The Taliban made such promises too.

Lol they have no choice but Putin is so inept it might take a few hundred thousand dead soldiers to figure that out

7:06 Yes, Syria can force Russia out. A cheap way might be siege by interdiction: unsophisticated missiles targeting ships or planes using the bases - even manpads would do the job - and then just wait for the bases to run out of supplies and surrender. Russia would not be able to prevent that interdiction, whether by force or intimidation or likely even bribery. The likely reason Russia has not already lost the bases is that Syria's new jihadi leaders have other priorities (why prioritize inevitable Russian exit?) Even if the jihadis start fighting each other, Russia still eventually will lose the bases, because if Russia had the resources to intervene in a Syrian civil war in any form, Asad would not have fallen.

I had to check a game theory vid for your actual voice lol

You sound a lot like Fredrik Knudsen.