There have been examples of exiled leaders returning to power (Napoleon being the most famous), but the problem here seems to be that very few people actually like Assad.
@haxney Alberto Fujimori, Dictator of Peru, after just a few years in exile in Japan, decided to pull of a "Napoleonic" return. He was arrested before even setting foot in the country
I like that these are in essence your office hours. When I was in grad school folks would mostly come in to office hours to ask my views on current affairs as opposed to course material of the polysci classes I was ta-ing - always a fun challenge to link those questions back to course material :)
Kinda guessing here, but it probably gets even more annoying when it's someone from your family, asking at the Thanksgiving table, the same questions about views, especially when you factor in how they are prone to cut you off, onto their talking points, before you even got to answer your question. Ffs...
It's always inspiring though, when students show they are thinking and reflecting on things on their own. Just having a sea of silent either seemingly dumb(?) (likely not though) or too reverent students beeing silent at lectures, doesn't help your inspiration. The reason you are an intellectual, is you enjoy to have fun thinking and discussing thought. Your students are less knowlidgeable, but may well be your intellectual match! I'm guessing this channel makes fun for William.
I for one am very happy that you created a second channel. I love it when creators do it to make more niche videos. I must not be very smart. Good to know
Hey William,@@LinesonMapsExtra Just I wanted to bring to your attention that Algeria is a good candidate for some Russian Navy presence. And love your work, FROM SYRIA. 💚💚
@@LinesonMapsExtraAnd I would like to add that a Republican Guard DID EXIST! And it was led by Bashar's brother Maher! It was also known as the Army's 4th Division.
1. Very informative. 2. I can't believe this video gave me the answer of a question I never asked: why the second channels? 3. I love this "pizzazz" expressed in this video and the whole channel in general. 4. I hope some day William find the time to just chillax and stream playing some videogame while talking about lines on maps and geopolitics.
My god, this was the best Q&A I’ve heard on geopolitics or conflict. I look forward to more of these. There are always so many questions in all conflicts and even this conflict will have more questions in the coming weeks and months! So glad you started this new channel, Extra Lines On Maps!
17:10 I think it's also important to note that a large amount of Israel's water supply comes from the Golan Heights. Israel making a buffer zone along the Golan to protect its water sovereignty also adds another element as to why they're intervening now.
26:48 another incentive for having a second channel - if all the videos on a channel are high quality, it incentivises viewers to turn notifications on for that channel, further increasing viewership and (i assume) increasing its priority in the algorithm
Here, sure. Some of the channels I subscribe to I would absolutely not click on extra content though. “Barely good enough to stay subscribed” is really far away from “I want everything this person makes in my feed”
So happy to be able to watch a new upload- love the new format as well- congrats on everything achieved and looking forward to seeing much more! Would be awesome to have you as a professor!
To analogize Syria to China, "The Yuan dictatorship that ruled after getting rid of the Qing is cast down.. Now we are in the Warlord Era. It remains to be determined which of the players are going to end up being the KMT and which are going to be the CCP. And remember. The CCP not only wasn't founded until 5 years after the Warlord Era began, it was allied with the KMT for its first 6 years."
There is another scenario where Assad may return, which we have seen in other strife torm nations where a dictator caught a flight out to town a few steps ahead of a noose or firing squad. Once the situation somewhat stabilizes, it is entirely possible that things won't *stay* stable, and there might be an opportunity for nostalgia for "The Before Times" to provide an opportunity for Assad to return as a rescuing hero.
Given the “Before Times” involved a decade long civil war, millions voting with their feet to flee, and sadistic repression (eg. Sednaya prison), I’m not imagining a whole lot of nostalgia.
@@andrewmcalister3462 We stand to see what HTS will organize if they take charge. Remember they're coming from the Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaida in Syria, Islamic Front, etc. Not nice people to say the least and there are a number of groups that have felt safer under Assad, than under islamist rule. (Think of Christians, Alawites, even Kurds)
I love your sense of humor... And your informative content. Great explaination at the end as to why you launched a second channel. Count me among your dual subscribers.
“Are you really a history professor? 🤨 “ “Nope! I’m a political science professor! 😃” I could really hear the cheeky smile in that answer! 😆 Love your humor, as always.
Get a grad student from the math department to generalize it to geometry on maps. My guess is hexagons on maps will be the most effective... though non euclidean expected outcomes could lead to some surprises.
Something you didn't consider or didn't want to say is that the bases are on Alawite territory, the Alawites don't have many reasons to be at odds with the Russians, in fact they have every reason to distrust the turkish backed rebels, Russia also has a partnership with the Kurds, so if everything goes wrong with the HTS and the SNA Putin could prop up the alawites to form an authonomous region and together with the kurds keep the rest of Syria at bay.
I know it's not fully in your wheel house, but: What do you think about that representative from Naboo suggesting the senate should give emergency powers to the supreme chancellor? Should we be concerned about liberties being limited now in the "name of security"?
What happens if the second channel starts getting more viewers than the main channel? Love this new format and was really looking forward to watching. Or listening - this would also work great as an audio podcast, just saying.
I read that several countries in Europe ( Austria) are 1) not considering refugees requests anymore and 2) considering sending back refugees ver y very soon...
Israel moved from the Alpha line to the Bravo line in the buffer zone, based on the 1974 Israel-Syria Disengagement Agreement, after UNDOF forces were fired upon by rebel factions. The Druze in the Golan whose children were killed playing Soccer in Majal Shams are closely related to Druze on the Syrian side. The Druze community is very integrated into Israeli society, and serve in the IDF. Want to get humanitarian assistance to them much like Israel did in operation Good Neighbor.
Returning from exile and reclaiming the throne without outside assistance worked for Napoleon. ... but then again France actually liked Napoleon. I don't think it would work for Assad. (Edit: At least, it worked for Napoleon until the outside powers came into play.) Squares on maps aren't more powerful than lines on maps, because mathematically speaking squares are just an infinite contiunuum of stacked lines. You can't really say lines on maps are more powerful than lines on maps, even if one set of those lines is in square form. ;p
I'm loving this Q&A. I would be interested in your take on the similarities/differences between Assad (Syria) and Kim (N Korea). Could something similar happen with North Korea maybe over the course of many years.
as a russki i don't see how our bases in Syria are problem. Logistics of supporting those bases is totally different story though and i agree with video here.
i like this 2end channel here you can mess around without hurting your bottum LINE. hope to see some more different setups and topics you want to share but are less suitable for your main channel
20:47 I think it's also important to note that even the Republican Guard just getting a steady paycheck isn't necessarily enough to keep them loyal. The problem is that if your "legitimacy" is simply derived from paying the military to keep them loyal, the incentive for the military is simply to depose the ruler since there wouldn't be any pushback from civil society, so having a well trained and equipped Republican Guard would have been an even bigger threat to the regime than the rebels.
The biggest problem with a second channel is now you have a golden parachute if the first channel goes south. Therefore the anti-Spaniel rebels will be emboldened to begin a new troll offensive on the comment section there.
Question! 🙋♂️ HTS use to be associated with ISIS then broke that relationship and forced to temp ally with Al-Queda and then for nearly a decade has been making big moves to moderate and distance themselves from those type of groups. What has history shown when such groups finally do come to power? Do they stay moderate or is it usually all mirage to gain support when they were rebels but then revert to their old ways once they have the power? Thanks
Hey, William. I believe you already know this but I felt it was necessary to point out how complex the situation is regarding the Kurds in Syria. The land grab was very short lived as we all know by this point and actually some strategic land was even lost to the Turkish backed militias in the past few days. Some key differences between the situation of the Kurds in Syria and that of the Kurds in Iraq, setting aside ideological differences, are the facts that right now the Kurds rule over lands that are majority Arab and the areas they control are generally mostly Arabs with Kurds being a large minority in those areas. This situation came to existence due to the war on ISIS giving the YPG an opportunity to seize lands from ISIS that were majority Arab inhabited. This arrangement worked for a while since people weren't too enthusiastic to go back under Assad's rule and the opposition was too weak to claim those lands from the Kurds given they're backed by the US. Now that Assad is gone and the opposition is in power, the sentiment of the Arabs living under Kurdish rule may and probably will change. The question then becomes what will happen. Will most of those Arabs defect and shrink the Kurds' power further or will the US play a proactive role in keeping the status quo as is. There's also Turkey which would do everything in its power to crush the Kurds completely by any means possible. It already occupies many Kurdish lands which it took over militarily from the YPG over the years. Turkey is currently waiting for Trump to take power and withdraw all the US troops from Syria in which case they'll probably launch an all out offensive to seize everything from the Kurds. Turkey is the most important player when it comes to the future of Kurds in Syria and it all hinges on whether Trump will still go ahead with his plan to withdraw all US troops from Syria or change his mind given the new developments in the region. The current status quo was the result of many factors playing together keeping the balance of power as it is today after Trump partially withdrew the US troops from SDF areas back in 2019 and the subsequent Turkish occupation of many lands from the Kurds after which Russia became the mediator between the Kurds and the Turks and Assad's forces along side Russian soldiers were introduced to the buffer areas between Turkey and the Kurds. Now that all but the US have left the area, the future of it all is very unclear.
Out of curiosity, what’s the benefit to Russia for housing Assad? Is he not just a drain on resources at this point, or maybe he has the potential to be a bargaining chip with a new Syrian government? Regardless, I appreciate the high quality content. Looking forward to more videos.
Purely reputational. It's way easier to side with Russia if you know that even if everything goes south, you have somewhere safe to go. Using him as a bargaining chip is pointless, because it's just a worthless chip at this point.
Could the US/Western aligned countries such as Israel and Iraq completely force or pressure using ethier political or military pressure to keep Russia out of the region?
I don't think either Israel or Iraq care very much if Russia stays in Syria. If anything they might prefer it if it reduces the odds of a Taliban like government coming to power. The only outside powers that want Russia out would be the US and EU. And they could get that via economic incentives but not through pressure.
13:50 You’re forgetting that some of the victorious rebel groups come from the Caucasus and Central Asia, like the Ajnad al Kavkaz group (soldiers of the Caucasus). They’re not as likely to drop the guns and be civil workers like the local fighters would, and they have a grip with Russia as seen with some already fighting in Ukraine, so it’s very possible they shift there if there aren’t any other battlefronts more relevant to them at the time.
Apart from beeing interesting, you are also funny William!😄I hate papers with squares, though I understand the question. I want blank sheets of paper, wether I do design or write text. Btw I'm also alergic to two dimensional "analysis" of things, and it generally gets aggrevated by also making the dimensions into dichotomies. It's generally really dumb, when it comes to social sciences. (I'm an economist / marketeer.) Generally problems are multidimensional, and dimensions are continuos. That's a better starting point, than putting on a mental straightjacket. My two cents worth, as you Americans put it. (I'm Swedish.)
A map grid and a line on the map does very different things, they can't be compared so no study is required. If that's what the guy was asking, what is a map square anyway?
About Russia keeping the Bases: Do you see the possibility for a deal being made where Russia keeps these bases for a significant amount of time (let's say 25-50 years) in exchange for paying "development aid" (basically reparations) to the new Syrian Government and possibly even extradites Assad? If yes, how dependant on Assad being extradited would this deal be in your opinion, and how likely would Russia be to actually extradite him?
About Resupply to Tartus: How strictly controlled is the Bosporus Civlian Traffic? Could you simply hide the Military Supplies for Tartus in Civlian Shipments going from the Black Sea to the Med with next to no risk of being discovered? Yeah, Shipping from Russia to Syria increasing by a few hundred percent would raise some eyebrow, but could it be a legitimate solution anyway?
I think there's a near zero chance that Russia would extradite Assad. For HTS having Russian military around might be useful, because it can just continue doing what it has been doing: carrying out occasional airstrikes on terrorists. The main reason Russia is in Syria is to deal with terrorists there, before they return to countries neighboring Russia and to Russia itself. And HTS is about to be in the same situation Assad's government was: a lot of hostile militant groups being around.
10:42 But wouldn't Russian soldiers leaving Africa be a good thing to Ukraine beacause without those soldiers there Russia wouldn't be able to extract wealth from Africa ? Russia seems to think it has more to gain by sending thoses soldiers to Africa rather than Ukraine. So it stands to reason it would be a bad thing for those soldiers to be moved to Ukraine.
Africa is long-term interests. And it's not even the profits directly, but rather denying them to the West, mainly France. In other words, the economic effect would be minimal.
This whole time we've been told mass migration is temporary and its our moral duty to help them, even though it is irrevocably destroying our countries and way of life. I think the average European, who has already been pretty clear they don't want this. see's the civil war is over, see's Syrians not leaving still living for free at their expense, and it pushes the whole thing over edge into pretty heavy rioting and public disorder
Assuming there's not gonna be another decade of infighting between rebel groups and whoever took Damascus will stay in power, how could the future government or their policies look like? What would that mean for people living in Syria?
Well, the most dominant faction is HTS, and they've recently been trying to paint themselves as moderates and not terrorists to the west. They banned the enforcement of tje Hijab on women and also outlawed the use of weapons in public unless you're acting for the state, making seem like they're going to be cracking down on terrorist groups or unaffiliated paramilitary organizations. To add on to that, HTS has a pretty decent track record of respecting things like academic autonomy in places they've controlled, like Idlib in 2019. This, coupled with the fact that they've been making statements supporting minorities in Syria like Christians, is at least a little hopeful. Keep in mind that it could also just be posturing to get the support of the US and EU, and it could be followed by backsliding into another Islamic dictatorship. I'm personally cautiously optimistic
7:06 Yes, Syria can force Russia out. A cheap way might be siege by interdiction: unsophisticated missiles targeting ships or planes using the bases - even manpads would do the job - and then just wait for the bases to run out of supplies and surrender. Russia would not be able to prevent that interdiction, whether by force or intimidation or likely even bribery. The likely reason Russia has not already lost the bases is that Syria's new jihadi leaders have other priorities (why prioritize inevitable Russian exit?) Even if the jihadis start fighting each other, Russia still eventually will lose the bases, because if Russia had the resources to intervene in a Syrian civil war in any form, Asad would not have fallen.
10:13 wait Russias operations in Africa might collapse without the bases in syria ? How could that happen can Russia not support its soldiers in Africa via the baltics ? If Russia has managed to support them by sending supplies across the middle east and Africa why can't it send supplies via boat ?
It extends the distance needed to sail and send materiel tremendously. And the Baltic sea is essentially a NATO lake at this point, making it incredibly easy for those shipments to be disrupted in the future
So far Russia has used the Airbase in Latakia to refuel the Planes delivering Cargo to Africa. And with the Range Limits of the Planes that Base will be hard to replace.
Let us not forget the involvement of the US, Israel and Turkey. Who here thinks the force that pushed the existing government to flee did not get its arms from the three aforementioned nations.
I happened in Turkey in these days, and there are apparently at least 100k refugees already going back, I think there are immediate consequences on this side. Even the EU is talking about "helping Syrians back to Syria" at the moment. I think this might actually be one of the major consequences of all this. Turkey less able to blackmail the EU with threats of opening the gates for immigrants, and therefore also not getting blackmail money. If immigration becomes even just temporarily, or even just in appearance, less of a pressing issue, the rise of the extreme right in Europe will be reversed, since this is really the only real thing they promise (dumb and unrealistic) solutions to, while the left just preferred to mostly pretend immigration was only good and not a problem in any case. This might mean less chaos in the EU, less pressure to appease citizens that are otherwise pissed because governments do nothing to help with the crazy immigration...and I can imagine that, even if not a first order consequence, Russia might not be happy about this
The idea of assad coming back into power is some HOI4 alternative history focus tree type shit
I wanna see @stakuyi do a play through of that 😂😂
Extra points if he comes back into power...in Russia
There have been examples of exiled leaders returning to power (Napoleon being the most famous), but the problem here seems to be that very few people actually like Assad.
@@haxney I mean, he'd get the Napoleon treatment at best and get his ass kicked to another location, and that's doubtful too.
@haxney Alberto Fujimori, Dictator of Peru, after just a few years in exile in Japan, decided to pull of a "Napoleonic" return. He was arrested before even setting foot in the country
I like that these are in essence your office hours. When I was in grad school folks would mostly come in to office hours to ask my views on current affairs as opposed to course material of the polysci classes I was ta-ing - always a fun challenge to link those questions back to course material :)
Kinda guessing here, but it probably gets even more annoying when it's someone from your family, asking at the Thanksgiving table, the same questions about views, especially when you factor in how they are prone to cut you off, onto their talking points, before you even got to answer your question. Ffs...
It's always inspiring though, when students show they are thinking and reflecting on things on their own. Just having a sea of silent either seemingly dumb(?) (likely not though) or too reverent students beeing silent at lectures, doesn't help your inspiration. The reason you are an intellectual, is you enjoy to have fun thinking and discussing thought. Your students are less knowlidgeable, but may well be your intellectual match! I'm guessing this channel makes fun for William.
@andersgrassman6583 I mean, imo william sure is a very good educator, all above everything else there is to be said about him, positive wise
I for one am very happy that you created a second channel. I love it when creators do it to make more niche videos.
I must not be very smart. Good to know
I would never suggest that Dr. McQuack is not very smart!!!
I agree with you concerning the channel, I too like it.
Hey William,@@LinesonMapsExtra
Just I wanted to bring to your attention that Algeria is a good candidate for some Russian Navy presence.
And love your work, FROM SYRIA. 💚💚
@@LinesonMapsExtraAnd I would like to add that a Republican Guard DID EXIST! And it was led by Bashar's brother Maher!
It was also known as the Army's 4th Division.
1. Very informative.
2. I can't believe this video gave me the answer of a question I never asked: why the second channels?
3. I love this "pizzazz" expressed in this video and the whole channel in general.
4. I hope some day William find the time to just chillax and stream playing some videogame while talking about lines on maps and geopolitics.
My god, this was the best Q&A I’ve heard on geopolitics or conflict. I look forward to more of these. There are always so many questions in all conflicts and even this conflict will have more questions in the coming weeks and months!
So glad you started this new channel, Extra Lines On Maps!
17:10 I think it's also important to note that a large amount of Israel's water supply comes from the Golan Heights. Israel making a buffer zone along the Golan to protect its water sovereignty also adds another element as to why they're intervening now.
Thank you for posting a longer video on here. I really appreciate your efforts to keep us well informed.
Kurds? What kurds?
@NKY151 You really missed the chapter focusing on “independent Kurdistan vs regional autonomy” ? 🤦♂️
26:48 another incentive for having a second channel - if all the videos on a channel are high quality, it incentivises viewers to turn notifications on for that channel, further increasing viewership and (i assume) increasing its priority in the algorithm
liking the longer content
Love that you are putting out more content. Hopefully more people discover this channel too.
I love the extras channel. It’s really strange why someone would look down on extra content from a channel they’re subscribed to
Here, sure. Some of the channels I subscribe to I would absolutely not click on extra content though. “Barely good enough to stay subscribed” is really far away from “I want everything this person makes in my feed”
I enjoy the informality of this channel.
In many ways, it feels like you are talking just to me in the way that UK radio does so well.
Some very smart questions and some interesting answers. Thank you.
Lines on maps in Syria is going to look like a bowl of spaghetti. J/K, great content!
😂
So happy to be able to watch a new upload- love the new format as well- congrats on everything achieved and looking forward to seeing much more! Would be awesome to have you as a professor!
I enjoy the Q&A. I like hearing your thought process.
More Lines on More Maps
I love this second channel. For me it only adds value, I love the format and I love listening to the responses to the questions.
Thank you for chapter markers so we don't have to listen to the whole thing if we're only interested in some of it.
Gotta love a bonus video!
Great viewpoints and discussion.
glad i got this recomendation, now i have them all.
Im enjoying the extra lines!
Hi Will, I like this channel. A little less polished, a little more real. 🧐
You answered some of the questions I wanted to ask, thanks
Thank you for the video, professor.
Thank you for doing this Q&A.
Thanks for your videos they're appreciated, Cheers 🍻
I’ve come to really look foward to your videos. Keep up the good work!
Love your extra channel
good luck with your projects!
Super interesting about TH-cam channel structure, thanks!
To analogize Syria to China, "The Yuan dictatorship that ruled after getting rid of the Qing is cast down.. Now we are in the Warlord Era. It remains to be determined which of the players are going to end up being the KMT and which are going to be the CCP. And remember. The CCP not only wasn't founded until 5 years after the Warlord Era began, it was allied with the KMT for its first 6 years."
There is another scenario where Assad may return, which we have seen in other strife torm nations where a dictator caught a flight out to town a few steps ahead of a noose or firing squad.
Once the situation somewhat stabilizes, it is entirely possible that things won't *stay* stable, and there might be an opportunity for nostalgia for "The Before Times" to provide an opportunity for Assad to return as a rescuing hero.
Given the “Before Times” involved a decade long civil war, millions voting with their feet to flee, and sadistic repression (eg. Sednaya prison), I’m not imagining a whole lot of nostalgia.
@@andrewmcalister3462
We stand to see what HTS will organize if they take charge. Remember they're coming from the Al-Nusra Front, Al-Qaida in Syria, Islamic Front, etc. Not nice people to say the least and there are a number of groups that have felt safer under Assad, than under islamist rule. (Think of Christians, Alawites, even Kurds)
I enjoyed this, please do more Q&As 😁 keep up the good work!!
I love your sense of humor...
And your informative content.
Great explaination at the end as to why you launched a second channel. Count me among your dual subscribers.
“Are you really a history professor? 🤨 “
“Nope! I’m a political science professor! 😃”
I could really hear the cheeky smile in that answer! 😆 Love your humor, as always.
Perfect couchside story!
Get a grad student from the math department to generalize it to geometry on maps. My guess is hexagons on maps will be the most effective... though non euclidean expected outcomes could lead to some surprises.
Something you didn't consider or didn't want to say is that the bases are on Alawite territory, the Alawites don't have many reasons to be at odds with the Russians, in fact they have every reason to distrust the turkish backed rebels, Russia also has a partnership with the Kurds, so if everything goes wrong with the HTS and the SNA Putin could prop up the alawites to form an authonomous region and together with the kurds keep the rest of Syria at bay.
Will you cover the events in Romania as well?
The Army hadn’t been paid in 6 months so their loyalty was already tested as far as it was going to get.
Square on maps are only better than lines on maps if cavalry is involved 🙄
I know it's not fully in your wheel house, but: What do you think about that representative from Naboo suggesting the senate should give emergency powers to the supreme chancellor? Should we be concerned about liberties being limited now in the "name of security"?
What happens if the second channel starts getting more viewers than the main channel? Love this new format and was really looking forward to watching. Or listening - this would also work great as an audio podcast, just saying.
I read that several countries in Europe ( Austria) are 1) not considering refugees requests anymore and 2) considering sending back refugees ver y very soon...
Good. Europe, the US, and Canada belong to Whites.
Good
Germany, on the other Hand, has allready granted Citizenship to many Refugees.
That is quick. Would have that waiting until seeing how the new regime will rule would be needed
Israel moved from the Alpha line to the Bravo line in the buffer zone, based on the 1974 Israel-Syria Disengagement Agreement, after UNDOF forces were fired upon by rebel factions.
The Druze in the Golan whose children were killed playing Soccer in Majal Shams are closely related to Druze on the Syrian side.
The Druze community is very integrated into Israeli society, and serve in the IDF. Want to get humanitarian assistance to them much like Israel did in operation Good Neighbor.
It’s important to note that squares on maps are created from lines on maps
Returning from exile and reclaiming the throne without outside assistance worked for Napoleon. ... but then again France actually liked Napoleon. I don't think it would work for Assad. (Edit: At least, it worked for Napoleon until the outside powers came into play.)
Squares on maps aren't more powerful than lines on maps, because mathematically speaking squares are just an infinite contiunuum of stacked lines. You can't really say lines on maps are more powerful than lines on maps, even if one set of those lines is in square form. ;p
Oh yæs, 30 minutes of gold coming up.
I like this video format
I'm loving this Q&A. I would be interested in your take on the similarities/differences between Assad (Syria) and Kim (N Korea). Could something similar happen with North Korea maybe over the course of many years.
You have to promote this channel more
as a russki i don't see how our bases in Syria are problem. Logistics of supporting those bases is totally different story though and i agree with video here.
I subscribed to the second channel just because of that comment
i like this 2end channel here you can mess around without hurting your bottum LINE. hope to see some more different setups and topics you want to share but are less suitable for your main channel
20:47 I think it's also important to note that even the Republican Guard just getting a steady paycheck isn't necessarily enough to keep them loyal. The problem is that if your "legitimacy" is simply derived from paying the military to keep them loyal, the incentive for the military is simply to depose the ruler since there wouldn't be any pushback from civil society, so having a well trained and equipped Republican Guard would have been an even bigger threat to the regime than the rebels.
For a Syria book, could you do a collaboration with a Syria expert?
The biggest problem with a second channel is now you have a golden parachute if the first channel goes south. Therefore the anti-Spaniel rebels will be emboldened to begin a new troll offensive on the comment section there.
Question! 🙋♂️ HTS use to be associated with ISIS then broke that relationship and forced to temp ally with Al-Queda and then for nearly a decade has been making big moves to moderate and distance themselves from those type of groups. What has history shown when such groups finally do come to power? Do they stay moderate or is it usually all mirage to gain support when they were rebels but then revert to their old ways once they have the power?
Thanks
Thank you for confirming you are not a robot click next to proceed
Hey, William. I believe you already know this but I felt it was necessary to point out how complex the situation is regarding the Kurds in Syria.
The land grab was very short lived as we all know by this point and actually some strategic land was even lost to the Turkish backed militias in the past few days.
Some key differences between the situation of the Kurds in Syria and that of the Kurds in Iraq, setting aside ideological differences, are the facts that right now the Kurds rule over lands that are majority Arab and the areas they control are generally mostly Arabs with Kurds being a large minority in those areas. This situation came to existence due to the war on ISIS giving the YPG an opportunity to seize lands from ISIS that were majority Arab inhabited. This arrangement worked for a while since people weren't too enthusiastic to go back under Assad's rule and the opposition was too weak to claim those lands from the Kurds given they're backed by the US.
Now that Assad is gone and the opposition is in power, the sentiment of the Arabs living under Kurdish rule may and probably will change. The question then becomes what will happen. Will most of those Arabs defect and shrink the Kurds' power further or will the US play a proactive role in keeping the status quo as is.
There's also Turkey which would do everything in its power to crush the Kurds completely by any means possible. It already occupies many Kurdish lands which it took over militarily from the YPG over the years.
Turkey is currently waiting for Trump to take power and withdraw all the US troops from Syria in which case they'll probably launch an all out offensive to seize everything from the Kurds. Turkey is the most important player when it comes to the future of Kurds in Syria and it all hinges on whether Trump will still go ahead with his plan to withdraw all US troops from Syria or change his mind given the new developments in the region.
The current status quo was the result of many factors playing together keeping the balance of power as it is today after Trump partially withdrew the US troops from SDF areas back in 2019 and the subsequent Turkish occupation of many lands from the Kurds after which Russia became the mediator between the Kurds and the Turks and Assad's forces along side Russian soldiers were introduced to the buffer areas between Turkey and the Kurds. Now that all but the US have left the area, the future of it all is very unclear.
Love these vids
Now I got more lines on maps channels, noice! 😊
Great content, but is this really how you sound without a script?
Out of curiosity, what’s the benefit to Russia for housing Assad? Is he not just a drain on resources at this point, or maybe he has the potential to be a bargaining chip with a new Syrian government?
Regardless, I appreciate the high quality content. Looking forward to more videos.
He bought his own apartments in Russia. Besides why would Russia hand him over? That's a bad precedent to set to their other allies
Purely reputational. It's way easier to side with Russia if you know that even if everything goes south, you have somewhere safe to go. Using him as a bargaining chip is pointless, because it's just a worthless chip at this point.
Like most despot I imagine has a lot of stolen money in various offshore accounts. He won't be a charity case.
He has a lot of cash and it create a precedence that they're steadfast allies/sponsor to their dictatorial friends.
Could the US/Western aligned countries such as Israel and Iraq completely force or pressure using ethier political or military pressure to keep Russia out of the region?
Yes, the aid described in this video might be contingent on that.
Is Iraq considered western-aligned?
@@Strykenineit's government is slightly but the nation as a whole isn't, it's like Lebanon
@@Strykenine from what I understand they try to play both sides, both keeping the west satisfied while also keeping Iran content
I don't think either Israel or Iraq care very much if Russia stays in Syria. If anything they might prefer it if it reduces the odds of a Taliban like government coming to power.
The only outside powers that want Russia out would be the US and EU. And they could get that via economic incentives but not through pressure.
13:50 You’re forgetting that some of the victorious rebel groups come from the Caucasus and Central Asia, like the Ajnad al Kavkaz group (soldiers of the Caucasus). They’re not as likely to drop the guns and be civil workers like the local fighters would, and they have a grip with Russia as seen with some already fighting in Ukraine, so it’s very possible they shift there if there aren’t any other battlefronts more relevant to them at the time.
like the new channel
You should promote this channel on your main channel. I watch all your main channel vids but only accidentally stumbled across this on TH-cam.
Hi Dr. Spaniel!
Liner Mappier
I realize it’s not that simple but it’s wild that Libya is considered less stable than the country that’s in a 10+ year civil war.
wait, so this is the off-the-record channel?
Btw, Syria DID HAVE its very own version of a Republican guard. 25000 strong (as Wikipedia says)
Apart from beeing interesting, you are also funny William!😄I hate papers with squares, though I understand the question. I want blank sheets of paper, wether I do design or write text.
Btw I'm also alergic to two dimensional "analysis" of things, and it generally gets aggrevated by also making the dimensions into dichotomies. It's generally really dumb, when it comes to social sciences. (I'm an economist / marketeer.) Generally problems are multidimensional, and dimensions are continuos. That's a better starting point, than putting on a mental straightjacket. My two cents worth, as you Americans put it. (I'm Swedish.)
Do you ever see yourself putting content out on Nebula?
I had to check a game theory vid for your actual voice lol
Of course an AI voice would say it’s not an AI voice
A map grid and a line on the map does very different things, they can't be compared so no study is required.
If that's what the guy was asking, what is a map square anyway?
Missed a question: how does losing Assad affect Iran and it's regional plans including Gaza and the Houthis?
How might this change Iran's broader strategy, both internal and external?
About Russia keeping the Bases:
Do you see the possibility for a deal being made where Russia keeps these bases for a significant amount of time (let's say 25-50 years) in exchange for paying "development aid" (basically reparations) to the new Syrian Government and possibly even extradites Assad? If yes, how dependant on Assad being extradited would this deal be in your opinion, and how likely would Russia be to actually extradite him?
About Resupply to Tartus:
How strictly controlled is the Bosporus Civlian Traffic? Could you simply hide the Military Supplies for Tartus in Civlian Shipments going from the Black Sea to the Med with next to no risk of being discovered? Yeah, Shipping from Russia to Syria increasing by a few hundred percent would raise some eyebrow, but could it be a legitimate solution anyway?
I think there's a near zero chance that Russia would extradite Assad.
For HTS having Russian military around might be useful, because it can just continue doing what it has been doing: carrying out occasional airstrikes on terrorists. The main reason Russia is in Syria is to deal with terrorists there, before they return to countries neighboring Russia and to Russia itself. And HTS is about to be in the same situation Assad's government was: a lot of hostile militant groups being around.
26:57 How about cubes? :D
You should use this speaking voice for all your videos, it sounds much more natural and less robotic
10:42 But wouldn't Russian soldiers leaving Africa be a good thing to Ukraine beacause without those soldiers there Russia wouldn't be able to extract wealth from Africa ? Russia seems to think it has more to gain by sending thoses soldiers to Africa rather than Ukraine. So it stands to reason it would be a bad thing for those soldiers to be moved to Ukraine.
Africa is long-term interests. And it's not even the profits directly, but rather denying them to the West, mainly France. In other words, the economic effect would be minimal.
This whole time we've been told mass migration is temporary and its our moral duty to help them, even though it is irrevocably destroying our countries and way of life. I think the average European, who has already been pretty clear they don't want this. see's the civil war is over, see's Syrians not leaving still living for free at their expense, and it pushes the whole thing over edge into pretty heavy rioting and public disorder
Assuming there's not gonna be another decade of infighting between rebel groups and whoever took Damascus will stay in power, how could the future government or their policies look like? What would that mean for people living in Syria?
Well, the most dominant faction is HTS, and they've recently been trying to paint themselves as moderates and not terrorists to the west. They banned the enforcement of tje Hijab on women and also outlawed the use of weapons in public unless you're acting for the state, making seem like they're going to be cracking down on terrorist groups or unaffiliated paramilitary organizations.
To add on to that, HTS has a pretty decent track record of respecting things like academic autonomy in places they've controlled, like Idlib in 2019. This, coupled with the fact that they've been making statements supporting minorities in Syria like Christians, is at least a little hopeful.
Keep in mind that it could also just be posturing to get the support of the US and EU, and it could be followed by backsliding into another Islamic dictatorship. I'm personally cautiously optimistic
Squares on maps. Historia Civilis collab incoming?
7:06 Yes, Syria can force Russia out. A cheap way might be siege by interdiction: unsophisticated missiles targeting ships or planes using the bases - even manpads would do the job - and then just wait for the bases to run out of supplies and surrender. Russia would not be able to prevent that interdiction, whether by force or intimidation or likely even bribery. The likely reason Russia has not already lost the bases is that Syria's new jihadi leaders have other priorities (why prioritize inevitable Russian exit?) Even if the jihadis start fighting each other, Russia still eventually will lose the bases, because if Russia had the resources to intervene in a Syrian civil war in any form, Asad would not have fallen.
10:13 wait Russias operations in Africa might collapse without the bases in syria ? How could that happen can Russia not support its soldiers in Africa via the baltics ? If Russia has managed to support them by sending supplies across the middle east and Africa why can't it send supplies via boat ?
It extends the distance needed to sail and send materiel tremendously. And the Baltic sea is essentially a NATO lake at this point, making it incredibly easy for those shipments to be disrupted in the future
So far Russia has used the Airbase in Latakia to refuel the Planes delivering Cargo to Africa. And with the Range Limits of the Planes that Base will be hard to replace.
@@BobAbc0815 Okay that makes sense thank you
Good video but it sucks that the human Lines on Maps guy got executed by our machine overlords and replaced 💔
Lines on Maps Extra is a misleading title. I expected a fourth line.
Let us not forget the involvement of the US, Israel and Turkey. Who here thinks the force that pushed the existing government to flee did not get its arms from the three aforementioned nations.
Syria is definatly more squares on maps
We'll give you a few years for the squares study. Perhaps you'll discover solid pastel circles with happy emojis will satisfy a few complaints. 😊
You sound a lot like Fredrik Knudsen.
Edit: nevermind, he answers this in his second to last question
Why a second channel? Why not put this on your main channel?
24:32 well, that’s exactly what a robot pretending to be human would say now wouldn’t it? Hmm coincidence? I think not! 😂
Russian bases to relocate to Lebanon? Seems open for foreign influence.
Not really. Not at all.
They have absolutely zero friends in Lebanon.
I happened in Turkey in these days, and there are apparently at least 100k refugees already going back, I think there are immediate consequences on this side. Even the EU is talking about "helping Syrians back to Syria" at the moment.
I think this might actually be one of the major consequences of all this. Turkey less able to blackmail the EU with threats of opening the gates for immigrants, and therefore also not getting blackmail money. If immigration becomes even just temporarily, or even just in appearance, less of a pressing issue, the rise of the extreme right in Europe will be reversed, since this is really the only real thing they promise (dumb and unrealistic) solutions to, while the left just preferred to mostly pretend immigration was only good and not a problem in any case. This might mean less chaos in the EU, less pressure to appease citizens that are otherwise pissed because governments do nothing to help with the crazy immigration...and I can imagine that, even if not a first order consequence, Russia might not be happy about this
Also yay, I am famous, one of my questions got featured in a Lines on Maps video! 😮🎉