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everyone does not have so much money, thats a laughable idea. people from LA and similar WITH money are moving to nashville like they did austin TX because its semi affordable comparatively, safe, and relatively "progressive". Local incomes are not keeping up with prices, especially in places like williamson and franklin. While there has been a couple month relative rebound, lets see how that plays out in the winter as comps lag

How hard is it for a developer to just switch these units over to permanent rentals, or even sell them as single family homes? Seems like even if the Airs BnB are overdone, you have two other ways to get them off the books as an owner. Or were the prices set on an expectation for much higher revenue than what a normal rental could bring? Seems like the Nashville rental market has to soften more, well beyond the "3 months free then we jack up your rent in year 2" game being played now.

I was managing about 20 Nashville Airbnbs in 2023. That's when saturation and very horrible floor plans and locations made the market get soft. Too many people expected profit from a cookie cutter unit with average interior design.

Good stuff ethan.

We will be going back to 2008 or worst. Look at the data, jobs are worse ,infation is worse, homes cost 40 to 60% more, most jobs don't pay enough to continue to support the prices. One thing I would love if you can find out are the number of people that work from home for Amazon. Remember we have thay return to work by Marh 2025 including roughly 15k managers being cut as well. How many of these people live in Maury, Williamson, Davidson, and etc.

I’m halfway through this video, and in my opinion, the reason many of these newcomers will fail is that they’re distorting what Airbnb originally set out to be - a platform offering genuine, real, and authentic experiences for people tired of the typical hotel stay. Who wants to stay in a neighborhood with 10 Airbnbs that all look the same, half-filled with partygoers, only to be asked to strip the beds, do the dishes, and pay a $250 cleaning fee? It’s just like the public markets -everyone rushes in chasing “easy” money, and they get burned. Turns out, buying cheap Wayfair furniture and renovating some dingy house doesn’t lead to the same profits anymore 😉 The market does a beautiful job of destroying idiots and I love it.

People have no idea what’s coming, it’s gona be bad

When you see a listing for a "Highly profitable AirBNB!!!!!!!", it's probably not anymore. Ask for income numbers pulled directly from their account. Don't accept a spreadsheet. Literally any a$$hat can put numbers in excel and say that's the numbers. Call them on it and they'll start claiming they do some of the rentals off the platform (yes, I have actually experienced this :D )

15% drop in total demand does not mean your income will drop 15%. More like 30% will go bankrupt plus 15% growth from savvy operators gobbling up market share. Almost no one will lose 15%. You will either rapidly adapt or lose everything.

I really like the analysis as an out-of-state investor in Nashville real estate.

looks like the "unseen hand" is about to start making market corrective "slapping"

videos like these remind me most folks have no idea what's coming

Yeah but 40% of the currency was printed during Covid. Does that mean there was a 40% increase in demand? 30%? 20%?

🌴🌴🌴 AirBnB owners and Greed = Failures. I can’t believe that so many people would invest in Airbnb units next to so many other Airbnb units 😮. Greed gets people in trouble. Thank you very much Ethan for everything you bring to your channel. Blessings from Paso Robles, California, Carlos

Thank you

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@EthanFlynn I’m preparing returns for clients with very, very high levels of mortgage debt. High income earners who are literally living on the next paycheck. The crash will eclipse 2008, if there is a crash.

The money that is coming to TN doesn't want to live in Davidson. It is larger money, larger incomes, and they want to live in Williamson et al. That is the main reason inventory/listings are down in Willaimson.

Jobs data is fake. Last 24 months of jobs data were all dramatically changed weeks after they were released. It's all fake. Nashville housing will revisit 2017 levels and probably drop much further. Peak to trough of housing bear markets is at least 5 years. The great pullback has just begun. A year from now this will be seen as the last chance to sell at bloated prices.

Great video!

The graveyard house would be the coolest on Halloween.

excellent analysis. just tell me the numbers. Ethan is also sensative to market segments too.

I have a sinking feeling that this is the calm before rates leave the stratosphere as prices go sideways or up. I suspect this is the last chance the remaining first-time homebuyers will have in the greater Nashville area

I see dead people

Question, why wasn't Hendersonville High School listed as a school for Sumner County? I'd be interested to know about the area more.

BTW, Don’t forget that you mentioned you would look into Mount Juliet. That’s a very interesting area. Prices seem to just keep going up 😮. Thank you, C Los

🌴🌴🌴👏👏You Definitely nailed it today 👏👏👏. Very interesting in regards to the Airbnb department. Oh and I think that December is the BEST time to buy a house, and giving the owners a chance to live in their home during Christmas 🎄. People love that! Thank you Ethan 👏👏👏 I’m always looking forward to watching your Saturday videos. Blessings from Paso Robles, California, Carlos

I think the highschool data is interesting for sure. I imagine that's driven by the inbound migrators coming in with large amounts of cash and wanting their kids in the best schools.

They revise that data so much that it's hard to really know what to believe. They will continue to cut rates in my opinion, eventually driving down mortgage rates, but it's going to be chop city for awhile with all of this data revision and nobody really being able to confidently say where the economy in general is heading. And I agree, always buy based on price, not rate.

It would be interesting to see if the properties that caused the closing bump (red line) were sold below, at or above list price. I'm curious if people are seeing new low prices and panic buying with the mindset that they have to pay at or above list or risk missing out on the "deal."

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already subscribed!! love your info..

Ashville has become a democRAT stronghold. Godless, baby killing war mongers. It's very sad that innocent decent people from Tennessee have to suffer due to the justice being handed down to the filthy democRATS.

I think we'll continue to waffle up and down near 500k median until some kind of economic event. But considering middle TN only lost ~20% during the 08 crash where the greater market lost 50+, and since then we've had crazy net inbound migration, I think the market here will (unfortunately for buyers like me) remain resilient. I also heard a podcast recently that said the "back to office" thing has kind of stabilized based on some recent data and the 20-25% remote work should be the norm for the next 5 years, then will likely slowly increase with technology making it easier and more productive. So at this point I'm just watching the balance between rents and mortgage payments. When they get pretty close, or I can find a deal that gets a payment comparable to rents, I'll consider buying. With those numbers out of balance, that tells me there is more room for downside (which of course may never come).

I was the guy who told you couple videos ago not to worry too much about Asurion. As you mentioned in the video, no big deal. It’s their annual “purge” they do every Q4 start. It literally happens every year-according to my two friends that are long-time employees there.

As someone who was a licensed property and casualty agent (insurance), I had to take flood insurance training. This hospital was put in a fish bowl. River on one side and interstate on the other. You need to put important infrastructure and facilities on higher ground. The high school wasn't flooded. Local residents need to make their public officials accountable and show up to local meetings when these things are decided. You may not be interested in politics but politics is interested in you!

My friend lost her house near 351 and the chucky. Today, someone on X posted pictures from a memory chest, they were hers.

I do not think inflation is all about fed spending. What about all these countries dropping the dollar. The last one to drop the dollar was Japan. This will cause more damage than fed spending.

Hope you got a canoe, man....

The scale of the damage from hurricane Helene will certainly push lots of people inward, at least temporarily. I suspect the absorption of multi-family and new builds will see a considerable bump in the upcoming months from enhanced relocations. Just a thought.

Its supply and demand no one has any money due to Bidenomics get used to this its only going to get worse .

So sad to hear about East TN and what they are going through. Glad you and family are ok. Why are 50% of the homes empty? Investor owned flips, previous rental, AirBNB, or are owners just moving out of the area?

🌴🌴🌴. It would really surprise me if the Nashville and surrounding areas are going to be a hot market for the next six months or so. I still believe that triple digits have to happen before things get any better. But then again it’s just a very strange market and no one really knows. I wonder if all those areas that flooded were actually in flood zones? Thank you Ethan, Carlos

Realtor here too & I am seeing unprecedented amounts of vacant new builds. Typically not tract housing.

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Only rich people think we are sliding into recession. We are actually sliding into depression.

I was laid off last December in Nashville. Vacation rental management.

You know nothing

The housing market always drags behind the other economy indicators by months. The next couple months will be interesting to watch. In Sumner County we still see the homes below 600k move after several price reductions, but the million dollar homes are sitting. Only 4 times has a Federal rate cut helped the economy and that was because the economy was healthy. All the others signaled a serious recession and a housing crash. They say inflation is down but every restaurant we've gone to lately has new menus with higher prices. Ask people who work in the grocery business and they will tell you every price change continues to increase by $ to $$. The stock market is almost at 200% over value again after a slight down turn. Everyone knows it can't hold here and history shows there is always a big crash coming. Is the government manipulating the numbers like they have been with the jobs numbers to make the economy look better than it is? A lot to consider before buying a home right now.

Have you considered there is a increase in violent crimes, murders and that tornado that took out half of Madison, and it was low income areas without insurance?