This is THE END of first-time home ownership when 2 bedroom new build townhouses are going for 400k off of Almaville Rd as rates continue to rise. The train has left the station until we get a Great Depression level reset.
Nope. It’s a blip. The reality is that housing markets move slowly. In 3 to 10 years, this is all likely to work out. Baby boomers are dying off, and these corporate buyers will figure out that single family homes are NOT the best investments for big companies. Either rates will go down or prices will go down. Also, wages for hard work will go up as cushy white collar job salaries stagnate. Those who work hard and smart usually get “lucky” while those that do not take their chances playing politics of one sort or another.
As global warming continues to make living on the gulf coast increasingly expensive and banks also start refusing to finance loans the migration will not stop for many years. Florida has 23 million people who are being charged outrageous amounts for insurance and they will eventually leave. I’m sure Tennessee will see at least a million or two move here.
I grew up here in Nashville. In 1990 we all left because it was on decline. I came back in 2019. It doesn’t look or feel like the same city. I will be leaving for the country again next spring
Majority of People moving to Tn are not moving to Metro Nashville. Majority of people are moving to surrounding counties in Middle,TN. The New Construction in Nashville are being purchased for “Short Term Rentals.
@@EthanFlynn friendly advice, OP typically has zero clue what they’re talking about and shouldn’t be engaged with. They are consistently on our local news TH-cam channels spamming disinformation and bigotry. I wasn’t even trying to find them, yet here they are. The coincidence is wild.
Do you have any data or sources for that information? I’m not seeing that. In fact everything I’m reading is migration is accelerating. This is more about over supply, high interest rates and poor management causing a crash. IMO
Also, I appreciate what you do and you’re very high on my list of people to seek out once I start property development, even if I disagree with you sometimes. Thank you for your videos.
Thumbs up for the video - given the flood of new units and the pitiful occupancy, can the for-sell housing keep strong? It does not add up. Something's gotta give.
Possibly. They are just so different. Especially in WC. I thought for a long time it would impact Single Family but it seems that they are very different customers. If anything a lot of renters will soon be buyers when prices make sense. So I don’t see it as taking away demand from single family but more of a holding for future demand.
@@EthanFlynn I got that people buying are more likely established than people renting. But 1M+ is a small segment in housing at most places. For houses under 700k, just do not see any compelling reason to buy - if renting is significantly cheaper.
Are you a commercial investor? There is a huge gap between buyers and sellers. So nothing is moving. What is moving are forced sellers which right now is GVA. Their property dropped 30% in value and they have 15 more that I’m guessing will sell over the next 18 months. Everyone else white knuckling unless they have long term fixed rate debt and can weather higher vacancy and lower rents. Most debt that comes due will require money to refi.
@@EthanFlynn i saw this phenomenon concerning BlackRock. They've leverage our 401K's, IRA's, and Municipal Pensions into real estate. Lost of pain coming!
apartment market is very local. Literally differences are between various places and neighborhoods in one city. all those new luxury high-rises may experience it....however, those properties are too small and overpriced without any privacy. If you have a high value property you do not have to worry at all. Yo have been "predicting" this for over 2 years now. Eventually even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
Huh? I can be patient and I don't care if it's price drops or rent increases. The math has to make sense. Thanks for watching my channel for two years.
alcove at least interior wise looks so inferior compared to places like the place which is even closer to downtown nashville. the building is stunning but they really should have designed the apartments better
Not sure why you keep saying housing is still doing fine. Inventory continues to skyrocket while both median sell price and median price per square foot are down around 10% from all time highs in 2022. This on top of the fact that a huge portion of sellers are having to cut prices while mortgage rates continue to go higher. It’s pretty simple. Some people MUST move. If no buyer is able or willing to buy there house due to mortgage rates or prices, they can only change one of the two, and to mitigate the high mortgage the price must fall. And it is, and it has been and it will continue to.
Williamson County has more contract volume than last year and prices are higher than last year. So volume up and prices are up. The increase in inventory is $1M+ listings and the demand has increased so much that the supply still feels tighter. Davidson County is the only county in middle tn right now that looks like a brewing disaster. Everything else looks stronger than last year.
I’ve been working on it. The bond funds are insane mazes of cryptic garbage. Not saying it’s all trash but everything that people have been saying would sink the banks is also sinking our retirement accounts. And they are using the same tricks of “held to maturity” to keep values from reflecting reality. Here’s a video I did about an empty office in cool springs. Owned by a pension. The Dark Truth about the Commercial Real Estate CRASH th-cam.com/video/kfJ4dkW5Shs/w-d-xo.html
@@EthanFlynn Thank you! As a TN government employee and 401k contributor (thought not bond funds) this worries me for myself, friends, and colleagues. I've been meaning to do a project on government provided 401k funds and how it leads to capital flight (companies in them aren't based in TN so they are encouraging funds to leave the state) and now there is this bond stuff on top of it.
@@EthanFlynn l wish…we only own floating debt funds. Thanks for doing interesting videos and not just on Saturdays. Just like you, this sure is taking a long time, but it’s finally starting to take shape. While I feel bad for the uninformed and less fortunate who will be blindsided by this, our economy is WAY overdue for a good cleansing.
@@EthanFlynn But-Ugly. And ubiquitous. If you really want Nashville to look like Shanghai, Tokyo, New Cairo, or Nairobi, fine, but not me. These glass cubes fit for the Borge can't fall fast enough. Unfortunately, it will take centuries to undo what these brutalists have done to bash original, beautiful, inspirational and humanistic architecture in the 1900s and early 2000s. Why preserve what can be crushed? Worse, they've left downtown and migrated into once beautiful Bellmead. Zarathustra has Spoken (an inspiration for 'modern thinking'), and soon humans will desire to be human again. Either that, or these 50+-story machines fit only for human-cogs will crush our collective spirit and modernity itself will follow the path of South Korea and slowly self-terminate. How's that for a summary?
This is THE END of first-time home ownership when 2 bedroom new build townhouses are going for 400k off of Almaville Rd as rates continue to rise. The train has left the station until we get a Great Depression level reset.
I hope not
It is for young people. Tennesseans are historically used to houses that cost 150K-250K.
Nope. It’s a blip. The reality is that housing markets move slowly. In 3 to 10 years, this is all likely to work out. Baby boomers are dying off, and these corporate buyers will figure out that single family homes are NOT the best investments for big companies.
Either rates will go down or prices will go down. Also, wages for hard work will go up as cushy white collar job salaries stagnate. Those who work hard and smart usually get “lucky” while those that do not take their chances playing politics of one sort or another.
Home prices will just appreciate far slower than overall inflation for a couple of decades
As global warming continues to make living on the gulf coast increasingly expensive and banks also start refusing to finance loans the migration will not stop for many years. Florida has 23 million people who are being charged outrageous amounts for insurance and they will eventually leave. I’m sure Tennessee will see at least a million or two move here.
Great news for renters. If companies in Nashville keep refusing to pay workers over 50k half the time, the rental market should at least match it.
The market will take time to work, buy rents ARE going to come down, perhaps significantly.
It’s a question I have. If these start selling lower, will rents drop? I don’t know 🤷♂️
I grew up here in Nashville. In 1990 we all left because it was on decline. I came back in 2019. It doesn’t look or feel like the same city. I will be leaving for the country again next spring
Thanks for sharing. Are you leaving because you don't like it?
Majority of People moving to Tn are not moving to Metro Nashville. Majority of people are moving to surrounding counties in Middle,TN. The New Construction in Nashville are being purchased for “Short Term Rentals.
Do you see any short term rentals struggling?
@@EthanFlynn friendly advice, OP typically has zero clue what they’re talking about and shouldn’t be engaged with. They are consistently on our local news TH-cam channels spamming disinformation and bigotry. I wasn’t even trying to find them, yet here they are. The coincidence is wild.
Quick news search says GVA has defaulted debts over $600M and are being sued by limited partners in Dallas area. Full employment for the lawyers.
Yes. They are struggling.
So--people moving here has significantly slowed. How come no one is talking about that? The pull-back started in 2023.
Do you have any data or sources for that information? I’m not seeing that. In fact everything I’m reading is migration is accelerating.
This is more about over supply, high interest rates and poor management causing a crash. IMO
Also, I appreciate what you do and you’re very high on my list of people to seek out once I start property development, even if I disagree with you sometimes. Thank you for your videos.
Hey thanks! Looking forward to connecting.
I heard GVA went bankrupt over a year ago? One of my maintenance techs used to work for them before they laid everyone off.
Thumbs up for the video - given the flood of new units and the pitiful occupancy, can the for-sell housing keep strong? It does not add up. Something's gotta give.
Possibly. They are just so different. Especially in WC. I thought for a long time it would impact Single Family but it seems that they are very different customers. If anything a lot of renters will soon be buyers when prices make sense. So I don’t see it as taking away demand from single family but more of a holding for future demand.
@@EthanFlynn I got that people buying are more likely established than people renting. But 1M+ is a small segment in housing at most places. For houses under 700k, just do not see any compelling reason to buy - if renting is significantly cheaper.
Music City is done. Where are these people living I see empty houses in Nashville and lots of construction.
The Police and Government of Nashville seem to only care about the Downtime Bars owned by a Cartel.
😂
This is all about Greed & Greed kills.
I live in the Nashville area and I do not see any the crash price you talking about.
Are you a commercial investor?
There is a huge gap between buyers and sellers. So nothing is moving. What is moving are forced sellers which right now is GVA. Their property dropped 30% in value and they have 15 more that I’m guessing will sell over the next 18 months.
Everyone else white knuckling unless they have long term fixed rate debt and can weather higher vacancy and lower rents. Most debt that comes due will require money to refi.
"You think they're stupid. You're paying for it." 🤣 Boy isn't that the truth!
I’m sure it’s more than we can imagine. 😂
@@EthanFlynn i saw this phenomenon concerning BlackRock. They've leverage our 401K's, IRA's, and Municipal Pensions into real estate. Lost of pain coming!
imo divest from the California transplant boom in Nashville/middle TN and wait for it to pop
The Locals will need to relocate once the Quarter drops !
It seems we have seen this movie before. Teaser, it has a bad ending.
It doesn’t end well.
apartment market is very local. Literally differences are between various places and neighborhoods in one city. all those new luxury high-rises may experience it....however, those properties are too small and overpriced without any privacy. If you have a high value property you do not have to worry at all. Yo have been "predicting" this for over 2 years now. Eventually even a broken clock is correct twice a day.
Huh? I can be patient and I don't care if it's price drops or rent increases. The math has to make sense. Thanks for watching my channel for two years.
alcove at least interior wise looks so inferior compared to places like the place which is even closer to downtown nashville. the building is stunning but they really should have designed the apartments better
Thanks for sharing. Are you renting downtown?
….and the recession hasn’t hit yet. Recession is inevitable. The business cycle is real.
True. Do you think we could have inflation with recession?
What are you talking about? We're already in a recession! We are about to hit a depression!
Not sure why you keep saying housing is still doing fine. Inventory continues to skyrocket while both median sell price and median price per square foot are down around 10% from all time highs in 2022. This on top of the fact that a huge portion of sellers are having to cut prices while mortgage rates continue to go higher.
It’s pretty simple. Some people MUST move. If no buyer is able or willing to buy there house due to mortgage rates or prices, they can only change one of the two, and to mitigate the high mortgage the price must fall. And it is, and it has been and it will continue to.
Williamson County has more contract volume than last year and prices are higher than last year. So volume up and prices are up. The increase in inventory is $1M+ listings and the demand has increased so much that the supply still feels tighter.
Davidson County is the only county in middle tn right now that looks like a brewing disaster. Everything else looks stronger than last year.
That’s valid, I only look at Davidson county. I don’t keep up with Williamson or Franklin at all. I can’t speak for these markets
I'd love to see a video or hear about how that company is using the bond fund that TN 401k accounts are going into
I’ve been working on it. The bond funds are insane mazes of cryptic garbage. Not saying it’s all trash but everything that people have been saying would sink the banks is also sinking our retirement accounts. And they are using the same tricks of “held to maturity” to keep values from reflecting reality.
Here’s a video I did about an empty office in cool springs. Owned by a pension.
The Dark Truth about the Commercial Real Estate CRASH
th-cam.com/video/kfJ4dkW5Shs/w-d-xo.html
@@EthanFlynn Thank you! As a TN government employee and 401k contributor (thought not bond funds) this worries me for myself, friends, and colleagues. I've been meaning to do a project on government provided 401k funds and how it leads to capital flight (companies in them aren't based in TN so they are encouraging funds to leave the state) and now there is this bond stuff on top of it.
You need to make a short that's just a super cut of mispronunciation 😂
Seriously though, love the channel!
Well. What’s really bad is the number of times I said it and cut it out. That clip went on for another 3 or 4 tries 😂😂
😂
We OWN the floating-rate debt…..and love it!
Wait. Do you actually own floating debt? That you actively manage?
@@EthanFlynn l wish…we only own floating debt funds. Thanks for doing interesting videos and not just on Saturdays. Just like you, this sure is taking a long time, but it’s finally starting to take shape. While I feel bad for the uninformed and less fortunate who will be blindsided by this, our economy is WAY overdue for a good cleansing.
Giarrantana destroyed Nashville's charm. Nashville's now the Miami of Flyover Country. Congratulations.
Oh no! Really? I actually think those buildings are amazing? Tell me why? It it losing the small town Nashville character?
@@EthanFlynn But-Ugly.
And ubiquitous.
If you really want Nashville to look like Shanghai, Tokyo, New Cairo, or Nairobi, fine, but not me.
These glass cubes fit for the Borge can't fall fast enough.
Unfortunately, it will take centuries to undo what these brutalists have done to bash original, beautiful, inspirational and humanistic architecture in the 1900s and early 2000s. Why preserve what can be crushed?
Worse, they've left downtown and migrated into once beautiful Bellmead.
Zarathustra has Spoken (an inspiration for 'modern thinking'), and soon humans will desire to be human again.
Either that, or these 50+-story machines fit only for human-cogs will crush our collective spirit and modernity itself will follow the path of South Korea and slowly self-terminate.
How's that for a summary?
All Venezuelans
Nashville is doing fine, there isn't a crash, theres youtube video every month about the crash is happening blah blah
It’s specifically apartment buildings he is referring to. It’s a completely different market than sfh.
Nashville is not doing fine. Majority of New Homes, Apartments & Condos are being purchased for “Short Term Rentals”.
There be be blood 🩸
I don’t know why people think Multifamily is immune. More of this coming until gov or fed bail outs.