Thankyou Dr Richard Connolly for joining me to discuss the topic of the Russian economy and if it is close to collapse like many are suggesting. To support the channel and more podcasts www.paypal.me/MWilliams745 buymeacoffee.com/willyoam www.patreon.com/willybeatingcancer MERCH: www.willyoam.com/
Willie the ethnic englishman (see his ethnic russian comments) is in useful idiot territory again. A very interesting discussion. It misses one absolutely vital starting point. We do not have the data to even start extrapolating on economic issues. Shame on you Richard for not starting with this point. Russia has stopped publishing this data (why?) so we do not have the range of data to cross check reasoning from a small number of data points. If you have no data you cannot draw accurate conclusions. The obscuring of the data feeds into/ is the foundation of the Russian Propaganda narrative, if something is uncertain it must be a great success. Richard then runs with this to support his implausible narrative in Russian propaganda style. Just a few points. 1) inflation is far more damaging and longer lasting than its superficial indicator immediate price increases (think of the cost of living you are feeling even though official inflation is now lower) 2) sanctions are not just economic they have physical effects that feed back into the economy. Think plane parts shortages, or shortages of oil & gas technology. 3) They feel the need to loot toilets (something we do have extensive data for) so we cannot compare their stoic tolerance of inconvenience to a western reaction. In summary I get your point, some commentators have been overblown in their predictions of collapse, but the reverse is not necessarily true. WE DO NOT HAVE ACCURATE DATA, no detailed discussion is possible.
I ONLY wish the best for the Russia people. I believe Russia will become only a bastion for progress and growth. Many people from other countries are fleeing for there due to the simply insane and sick pedo ideologies being pushed on their children. Russia stands for a man and a woman and that equals children NOT UNICORNS. If you are looking for a place where you can have conservative values then Russia is your place. Kind of what it used to be like in Canada USA and Australia. As far as I'm concerned GOD BLESS them. The demonic. Globalist elites can't handle it and they want Christianity to fail. Muslim and Christians can co habitate together ...WHY?? because they love their children and first and foremost they are Russians first! Borders language culture!
I'd love to hear about concrete examples of how Russia is authouritarian and not democratic I hear this claim in MSM all of the time. But I can't mention a single example. It'd be interesting to interview someone who could list all those examples! So that we can compare with the West.
I tell you more: I'm Russian and I travelled to Canada and bought a macbook for myself. Than I arrived to Russia and realised that I could have bought it cheaper at home market.
good luck in accessing the app store and purchasing software. That might be the reason for why it is cheaper in Russia, no one wants one now? Same goes for PS5 consoles
@@gmdyt1 everything works just fine. All my colleagues in IT work on macs. It's cheap because Apple differentiate prices for different markets and because of taxes. If you bring a piece from a low tariff economy you can get your mac cheaper.
I've always wondered about that. Maybe back then the barbarians also thought Moscow was sacred to the Russian people like Kyoto or something like that.
Why go as far as Iraq. Remember what happened with Trump in Butler lol? Everybody swept it under the rug like nobodys business. And they still can't 2+2 on this. As literally everyone coming from their m. narrative is a li.
I remember when Willy was telling us that Russia was importing washing machines for microchips. Making progress Willy. I was shocked that anyone actually believed this but then I heard the president of the EU repeat this nonsense in a speech.
My cynical view was that they were importing washing machines with missile microchips in addition to the washing machine microchips to dodge sanctions.
I really thought it was a joke until I saw the video clip from Von der Leyen, and an article from BBC. 😅 BBC lost all credibility to me. It’s even worse than CNN. Pure calculated propaganda.
@@Sub0x-x40 no we didn't. You're simply a gullible population who is entirely ignorant of Russia's capacities. And long may it hold. Knowing your enemy is a lesson NATO is too arrogant to take to heart.
I live in Thailand and the reduction of European and the increase in Russian tourists over the last 2 years is huge. Granted Russians can no longer go to Spain or Italy, but it also shows the situation in Europe.
The European Union is turning into a homeless shelter with constant protests people and garbage on the street. and everything is very, very expensive, not just expensive, but overpriced 2-3 times. it's not something that can be felt, it's just services why should I pay for services 3 times their real value? today in Russia there is a demand for Asian culture for Asian films for Japanese anime and of course tourist trips to Asia
I was living in Vietnam and met multiple Russians who were living in Asia just to get away from being called up. They said they would go home when the war is over. (Played with five of them in a 7 aside football team, two were doctors, one was ex military and the other an art student). But sure, Europeans have less money to spend nowadays and Thailand has also got more expensive as the cost of living there is rising too.
@@simonbrown7455 I usually go to Vietnam and Thailand as a tourist and Ive heard some Russians told someone about "drafting and conscripting". So Ive asked them "Is it true?", so they've answered smth like "no, but these stupid americans believe in everything". some Russians saying that just for lulz, you know))
Russia's economy collapsed so hard that France and Germany parliament collapsed because they cannot agree on the budget, S.Korea prez orchestrated a coup because his parliament could not agree on the budget, and US's debt is keep mounting to unprecedented level.
Apparently it's all supposed to be cunning plan to collapse the russian economy by entering the EU into recession. At least according to official propaganda.
@@alfredlear4141 Man I swear of all the Great Empires in the world, UK probably has the worst fall. At least many others went out with a bang, UK literally became the vassal of their former vassal.
@@MinhVo-ig7no Indeed. Whether 'left' or 'right-wing' our regimes are little globalist poodles sucking up to Washington politically and identity nonsense socially. A pathetic shadow of our former selves.
The very idea that a bunch of nations who are not energy self-sufficient could collapse the economy of a country that has literally every commodity within its own borders is frankly childish.
Childish,,,? I don't know any child backstabbing snakes,, but I do know some western leader backstabbing snakes! Children are more moral than these idiots!
WOW THEN HOW DID THE USSR COLLAPES ? It has literally every commodity within its own borders AND IT WAS BIGGER i agree Russia is a nuclear power , but i disagree about, the claimed super power part. north Korea is a nuclear power, but nobody would think, that made it a, "super power" the USSR was a super power, the Russian federation is not the USSR if you had seid Russia is a regional power i may have agreed with you Sume facts, you overlooked, in thinking Russia, is the same thing, as the USSR. Population: The USSR had a population of approximately 290 million, while the Russian Federation has a population of around 150 million, a decline of nearly 50%. Geographic scope: The USSR encompassed 15 republics, including Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic States, whereas the Russian Federation is a single state. Economic power: The USSR had a planned economy, which, although flawed, allowed for significant industrial production and military R&D. The Russian Federation has transitioned to a market economy, which has led to economic challenges, including a significant decline in industrial production and military capabilities. Technological sophistication: The USSR was on par with or ahead of the United States in some areas of technology, particularly military technology, in the 1950s and 1960s. However, by the 1990s, the United States had pulled ahead in most areas, and the Russian Federation has struggled to catch up. Global power projection: The USSR had a significant presence in Eastern and Central Europe, with client or puppet states, and maintained large military forces. The Russian Federation has a reduced military presence and lacks the same level of influence in the region. Nuclear arsenal: While the Russian Federation still possesses a large nuclear arsenal, it is a remnant of the USSR’s superpower status and not a reflection of its current economic or military capabilities. In summary, the Russian Federation is not the same superpower as the USSR due to significant declines in population, economic power, technological sophistication, and global influence. However, it is still a powerful country with a significant nuclear arsenal and a strong military presence in its immediate vicinity.
In Russia we have huge problems with access to videogames through Steam because of sanctions:((( So what do we left to do? Now we can spend much more time working productively on our factories. It's that simple.
And buy Russian indie games that absolutely thriving last several years while Western studios struggling to release games at all (but it also just because AAA game industry is obsolete, there no more such gap in quality, more like trade off between actual fun and visual spectacle, but AAA games much more expensive and require much, much more expensive PC so why bother)
@iplaygames8090yea as always the sanctions backfired. Not only did they lose the money from sales in Russia - there are tons of talented programmers there, that now easily crack any program on the market. AND raise the piracy in the western countries by the mere accessibility of such on the internet, while the inflation hits the western countries aswell. So the companies also lost a ton of revenue from western countries, too.
Niche trivial concern but I wish a Russian studio would make a FPS game that competes with Battlefield. I bet they would do a good job at making realistic factions and vehicles and without pink bunny ear operators
Remember, we were told in April of 2022 that a $65B Russian debt payment would be blocked, putting it in a default, which would magically make the Russian economy collapse.
I AGREE 1000% so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯 why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ? 💪💤🤍❤💙Russia number one big 🦛 🤏 100% facts from AI computer - for call out NATO bullsh*it - Super AI computer replied.... Here are ten facts that may help convince Russophobes that are in a, political cult, that their cognitive dissonance, may be affecting, their conclusion, that Russia is an NOT an invincible superpower: 1. Russia’s military budget: While Russia has increased its military spending, it still lags behind the United States, China, and other major powers. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in 2020, Russia’s military expenditure accounted for only 3.5% of global military spending, ranking 3rd globally. This challenges the notion of Russia as an “invincible” military superpower. 2. Economic indicators: Russia’s economy has struggled with stagnation and dependence on oil exports. In 2020, its GDP growth rate was only 1.3%, lower than many other major economies. This contradicts the idea of Russia as a dominant economic power. 3. Sanctions and international isolation: Russia has faced significant economic sanctions from the West, including the United States, European Union, and others, in response to its actions in Ukraine and alleged interference in foreign elections. This isolation and economic pressure undermine the notion of Russia as an “invincible” global power. 4. Demographic challenges: Russia faces significant demographic challenges, including a declining population, aging population, and low fertility rates. This could impact its military and economic capabilities in the long term. 5. NATO and European security: Despite Russia’s military buildup, NATO and European security structures remain robust and effective. The alliance has adapted to Russia’s actions, including the deployment of troops to Eastern Europe and the Baltic States. 6. Cybersecurity: While Russia has been accused of conducting cyberattacks, its capabilities are not as comprehensive or effective as often claimed. In fact, many cyberattacks attributed to Russia have been disputed or attributed to other actors. 7. International relations: Russia’s relationships with other major powers, including China, are complex and often contradictory. While Russia has strengthened ties with China, it also faces competition and tensions with Beijing. 8. Military vulnerabilities: Russia’s military has vulnerabilities, including an aging infrastructure, limited logistics capabilities, and dependence on outdated technology. Its military modernization efforts are ongoing but face significant challenges. 9. Alternative perspectives: Many experts and analysts, including those within Russia, have questioned the notion of Russia as an “invincible” superpower. Alternative perspectives emphasize Russia’s regional influence, limited global reach, and vulnerabilities. 10. Cognitive biases: Finally, it’s essential to recognize the role of cognitive biases in shaping beliefs about Russia’s capabilities. Confirmation bias, groupthink, and other biases can lead individuals to selectively emphasize information that supports their preconceptions while ignoring contradictory evidence. These facts and perspectives can help challenge the notion of Russia as an “invincible superpower” and encourage a more nuanced understanding of its capabilities and limitations. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK - RUSSIA NUMBER ONE STRONG
@@NJ-wb1cz this is really seem like a way to abuse some videogame rules that have to kick your opponent from the match but there is in fact no such autoresolve in real world. Otherwise USA would be for decades under the tons of sanctions from all the illegal invasions
such a valid point 👍 i use AI to prove to Russiaphobes👹 how correct you are 🧠 in making this comment 💯 AI replied Expert vs Informed Person Partisan Information War Dynamics: In the context of a partisan information war, a self-proclaimed well-informed expert may attempt to outsmart someone with a low IQ and limited information. However, the outcome depends on various factors, including the expert’s actual knowledge, communication skills, and the audience’s perception. Information Overload: A person with a low IQ and limited information may struggle to process and analyze complex information, making them more susceptible to misinformation or manipulation. Emotional Appeals: The expert may use emotional appeals, rhetorical devices, or logical fallacies to persuade the audience, rather than relying solely on factual information. Cognitive Biases: Both parties may be influenced by cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias or the Dunning-Kruger effect, which can affect their ability to evaluate information objectively. Communication Skills: The expert’s ability to communicate complex information in a clear and concise manner can significantly impact their ability to outsmart the less-informed individual. Intelligence and Information: While IQ can be an indicator of cognitive ability, it is not the sole determinant of a person’s ability to process and evaluate information. Other factors, such as education, experience, and critical thinking skills, also play a significant role. Critical Thinking: A person with a lower IQ may still be able to think critically and evaluate information effectively if they have developed strong critical thinking skills. Domain-Specific Knowledge: Expertise in a specific domain can be more important than general intelligence in evaluating information and making informed decisions. In conclusion, while a self-proclaimed well-informed expert may have an advantage in a partisan information war, the outcome depends on various factors, including their actual knowledge, communication skills, and the audience’s perception. Intelligence and information are complex and multifaceted, and a person’s ability to evaluate information effectively cannot be determined solely by their IQ or level of information.
Convincing a Vulnerable Individual: A salesman might use various tactics to convince a gullible low-intelligence person that rural Russia has the highest standard of living in the world. Emotional Appeal: The salesman could appeal to the person’s emotions by showing them images or videos of happy, prosperous people living in rural Russia, creating a positive association with the region. Misleading Statistics: The salesman might present misleading or cherry-picked statistics to support their claim, such as highlighting a specific aspect of rural Russian life that is better than in other countries, while ignoring other important factors. Lack of Context: The salesman could avoid providing context or comparisons to other countries, making it difficult for the person to critically evaluate the claim. Authority and Credibility: The salesman might pose as an expert or authority on the subject, using confident language and tone to convince the person of their credibility. Simplification and Generalization: The salesman could oversimplify complex issues and make broad generalizations about rural Russia, making it seem like a utopia. Playing on Biases: The salesman might play on the person’s existing biases or prejudices, using loaded language or stereotypes to create a positive impression of rural Russia. Creating a Sense of Exclusivity: The salesman could make the person feel like they are part of a select group that has access to exclusive information or insights, making them more likely to accept the claim.
Хочу кое-что прокомментировать. Во-первых, начнем с того, что у Запада концепция развития в первую очередь связана с доминированием над другими. После распада СССР они получили монопольное положение и наивно полагали, что теперь они могут творить что хотят. Проблемой России после 1991 года стало то, что она рассчитывала на встраивание в западную политику на равных, но, как я уже упомянул, Запад не ведет политику на равных, они всегда делят мир на «господ» и «обслуживающий персонал», и для России они отводили именно роль обслуживающего персонала их интересов - та самая пропаганда в стиле «страна-бензоколонка». Чтобы Запад мог продолжать доминировать, стратегия политики была подавлять потенциал остальных, особенно это касается США, для которых вообще все являются конкурентами. И расширение НАТО - это всего лишь один из способов получения контроля и давления на конкурентов, в первую очередь на Россию, которая всю историю мешала их доминированию. По поводу того, почему санкции не только не достигли результата, но и по сути дали обратный эффект. Во-первых, надо понимать, что у западной элиты сильно раздута самооценка, они без всяких сомнений считают, что они непобедимы, а все остальные - слабые и неспособные к сопротивлению страны, что приводит к ошибочным суждениям, где они переоценивают свои силы и сильно недооценивают конкурентов. Тем более что они привыкли нападать на небольшие страны и воевать против армий, состоящих из пастухов, но Россия - это одна из великих держав, недооценка ее потенциала уже сгубила Наполеона и Гитлера, да и до них было несколько «империй», закончивших свое существование после попыток напасть на Россию. Но я уже упомянул, что ошибкой России было предположение, что она встроится в западную цивилизацию на равных, вследствие чего она совершила ряд ошибок после распада СССР. Одной из которых было открытие собственного рынка для западных компаний, у которых были практически неограниченные ресурсы в виде денег, и они без особой конкуренции захватили большие доли рынка. В итоге это привело к тому, что они зарабатывали довольно большие деньги и выводили их к себе, реинвестирование прибыли было на самом низком уровне, а местные компании не могли с ними конкурировать. Когда ввели санкции, то под давлением политики со стороны западных стран многим западным компаниям пришлось уйти, но рынок не терпит пустоты, часть заместили китайские компании, но большую часть рынка стали занимать местные компании и производства. Это в первую очередь и привело к тому, что образовался дефицит кадров, а не военная операция. Но это привело еще к тому, что начался бурный рост производств, а местные компании, так как не выводили капитал за границу, начали активно реинвестировать в экономику России. И если посмотреть на статистику, то больший рост составил в производстве и обрабатывающей промышленности. Так что санкции ударили по логистике ввозимых товаров, усложнили возможность вывода денег за границу и отчасти на экспорт энергоресурсов, но все это так или иначе было компенсировано и обойдено. Но санкции также убрали западных конкурентов с внутреннего рынка, прекратили вывод капитала и позволили реинвестировать прибыль в собственную экономику. Кстати говоря, политика Трампа по протекционизму, вводу заградительных тарифов и так далее направлена на тот же эффект, только для США это будет торговой войной, инициированной ими самими, что, скорее всего, еще ударит по самим США, а России помогли это сделать санкции Запада без имиджевых последствий)) И если уж на то, то единственным пострадавшим от санкций и конфликта останется Европа, у которой банально оказалось нет суверенитета на принятие выгодных решений, а интересы собственных стран они заменили интересами США. Просто они не понимают или делают вид, что не понимают, что для США все потенциальные «враги» их доминированию, и Европа в том числе, а глупость, недальновидность и отсутствие суверенитета привели к кризису их экономики.
Когда они начали вводить санкции, я в значительной степени предсказывал это. Конечно, надо мной смеялись (Германия). Но скорость, с которой это произошло, удивила даже меня. Шутка в том, что я не экономический эксперт, а просто человек, обладающий здравым смыслом и готовый его использовать.
The Russian economy didn't collapsed during civil war. U.R.S.S. was NOT Russia, and the U.R.S.S. economy collapsed due to being almost exclusively connected to the former communist countries and 15 Soviet republics. Russia's economy can't collapse as easily as some dream. Russia have a HUGE energy based economy, they can sell the energy anywhere, Russia have a solid and big enough industry/manufacturing economy and a MASSIVE agricultural economy. Russia's debt is virtually ZERO. Russia's economy is VERY, VERY FAR from collapsing...if it will EVER collapse.
>U.R.S.S. economy collapsed it not economically collapsed. USSR was destroyed for political reason by political group on the top. USSR economy so collapsed that after 30years RF still kicking in mostly thx to USSR "collapsed" heritage.
When Trump won Dems was in denial, then exploded in "we need left Joe Rogan and left Fox News!" will.. they try to copy Russia (as they perceive it, nuke gas station with oligarchs) when they will lose the war?😂
I love how in the west people think that russian missiles fly on western/chinese electronic chips. It is so cute, but (surprise surprise) Russia produce necessary military electronics domestically.
I'm one of the people who's convinced Russia is benefiting from sanctions. Not in GDP terms, that's not what I'm claiming. I do however think sanctions are in a way paying for a restructuring of Russia's economy that will be/is long term beneficial for Russia. Think of it this way. Once Russia would have ordered a tool from Germany. Now they may have to have a university professor make a prototype and straight up create a production line within Russia. That incentivisation is enabled by sanctions.
That's true but it also means there is no competition, meaning Russian products aren't competitive. It's why Soviet cars from the early 90's were technologically equivalent to western cars from the 70s.
The issue is: You need cheap loans to organize production. The more easy way - just buy the same German tool from Turkey (with +30% price increase). Check for example car sales for all neighbour countries, they just skyrocket
@@TryCommonSense2446 Modern Russia relies on machine tool construction and the sale of finished products not only within the country, but also to African countries. Afghanistan, North Korea, Iran. Something to India. In Syria, due to the latest news, this is unlikely. In addition, the Northern Sea Route is actively developing. The north-south corridor. I am confident that the Eurasia Canal project, which is a water transport link between the Caspian Sea and the Azov-Black Sea basin, will be revived and implemented over time. For Iran, this is a direct water transport route to Central Europe. An alternative to the Suez Canal.
@@TryCommonSense2446 The West has no competitive industry! THat's why all Western consumers buy the superior technology products manufacured nuy the much higher skilled workers in societies with much beter infrastructure and less tazes and regulations and way more socially stable societies with a fraction of Western crime, for example. And that's why all Western companies move their manufacturing to such more civilized societies. Thus, the West has nothing to sanction anyone with! The 1990s are over, wake up!
so true 👍 MSM🥱 like to portray that Russia💪 is geting in a feed back loop - like that is a bad thing 🤔 i ask AI to explain why Russianphob's are 1000% WRONG it replied War Economy Impact on Manufacturing Offset by Zero Consumer Manufacturing: If Russia goes 100% war economy, the offset by zero consumer manufacturing will be significant, but the exact amount is difficult to quantify. However, it can be inferred that the reduction in consumer manufacturing will free up resources such as labor, materials, and facilities, which can be redirected to support the war effort. Labor: With zero consumer manufacturing, the workforce can be mobilized to work in defense industries, such as producing tanks, artillery, and other military equipment. Materials: The allocation of materials such as steel, aluminum, and other essential resources can be prioritized for military production, reducing the strain on the economy. Facilities: The repurposing of manufacturing facilities to produce military equipment can increase production capacity, allowing Russia to meet its military needs more efficiently. However, it is essential to note that a 100% war economy would likely lead to significant economic and social challenges, including shortages of essential goods, and decreased living standards for the civilian population. wot this AI got wrong however is that ...... 1) essential goods like butter are at an all time high 2) inflation, is at an all time low 3) the Russian standard of living is the best in the world
@@mickapps3153 really? Who do you think trained and equipped the ukrainian army? Who do u think operates Himars systems? Who do you think collects and provides intelligence, data and targets inside Russia for atacm missiles? Who do you think launches those same missiles? Who do you think has the equipment, knowhow and capability to blow up Nordstream? Get over it boy, NATO is defeated by Russia alone.
@@mickapps3153 Really? So who trained and equipped the Ukrainian military for the last 10 years? NATO. Who financed it? NATO. Who operates systems like Himars? NATO. Who provides intelligence and targets inside Russia for atacm missile strikes? NATO. Next time when you say something, make sure you know the facts.
I just came back from 14 days holidays in Moscow. I'm a Swiss citizen who visited Russia in 2010 for the first time, lived in London for 6 months in 2023. Currently back in Zurich. In Moscow I saw the complete opposite of what happened in Western European big cities: just safe, secure, modern (autonomous robot cars deliver your food), no issue with lgbtq and wokeism, amazing public transportation, lovely people. We totally overestimate our development in Western Europe and totally underestimate Russia. I mean in Zurich I would have to wait up to a week to get a new debit card. In Moscow I got a t-bank debit card the next days, all via app. I was able to upload my rubles and even transferred some rubles via bybit from my usdc stablecoins.
I have done the same in St Petersburg in october. Same thought, plus the strange feeling my country was a third world country when I came back to France.
A few days is a lot for a bank card. You were probably waiting for a courier? If you went into a bank branch, you would come out with a card in 15 minutes.
@ I can imagine, but guess what: some villages in northern england are also not London, nor are some villages in canton ticino or valais in Switzerland … but at least your huge capital city is way better off than london
Возможно поэтому западные страны ограничили въезд россиянам, чтобы они могли мечтать приехать в технологичную и чистую европу, не думаю, что агрессивная политика лидеров страны могла на такое повлиять, ну не варвары же в европе людей лишать мечты.
Extremely interesting and informative interview. Delightful to hear someone who prizes the importance of impartial analysis in a sea of people seemingly determined to drink in their own propaganda. Thank you Willy, this has been one of your best, if not the best interview and guest as far as I'm concerned. Keep being a Legend mate!
In conclusion: Any country with almost unlimited resources, when it stops or cannot export or import in certain markets, import or export to other markets. Easy...
A lot of people don't understand what sanctions really are. and the West confuses the concepts of survival or living comfortably! so Russia can always survive!!! inside Russia, there is everything you need for life. Russia needs exports and currency in order to live comfortably, and Europe needs it to survive. This is what distinguishes Russia from the West.
Also you have two countries right next door to each other. One is the most resource-rich country in the world, and the other is the manufacturing hub of the world. Is this not the perfect symbiotic relationship, the perfect partnership?
@@simonpedge Without a doubt, but all this confusion was also created to separate the most resource-rich country in the world "Russia" from the manufacturing engine in Europe "Germany" what was really difficult for the US markets to compete.
Thankyou Dr. Richard Connolly and Willy for one of the very rare objective debates on the real situation about Russia, the war in Ukraine and the world. Willy, respect for your frank approach and desire to reveal the truth about the current state of the world, because this is very rare from pro-Western analysts.
Good discussion. Question. If you both accept the Russian economy is better than reported by the west and the casualty numbers reported by the west is not accurate, why on earth do you continue to beat the drum for everything else they are saying? You’re getting there Willy. Someday. Enjoy the show….
Funny - meanwhile reality in Russia :) - Banking rates 21% = no private investments (housing market is crushing) +1 Rubble down to 1 cent - even with lower costs - average level of living is below Bulgaria (the poorest country in the EU) - minium salary: $210/month! - corruption is on Africa level (140th place /180) - created current flood in Russia - but excuse was that "rodents eaten the dam" ;) - infrastructure (apart from big cities) is 20 years behind Europe - commie looking towns+ poor villages - "brain drain" + population in decline (especially Slavic) - economy wise, Russia is becoming China vassal (totally depended on) - reserves are depleted - the war will be funded by higher taxes now - over 33% of Russian Black Sea fleet already sunk - 20% of houses has no inside toilet - medical care is crap: 7 years shorter lives vs Western Europe + one of the highest alcohol related desists. - "fake conservatism" - very high level of divorces/abortion/ child abandonment, etc. (only 8% of church attendees - lower than in Holland!) - "Green Revolution" will damage future profits soon (oil/gas economy) - Putin can't even protect Russia from Ukraine invasion in Kursk region + being kicked out from Syria now - fact that you can go to prison for calling war a war (etc.), - is icing on the cake
I’m a Kiwi and spent a month travelling Russia in April/May this year. Their economy was thriving while I was there (no cost of living crisis that’s for sure). It was such a good trip I’m heading back for 6 weeks next year
You are very welcome, i hope you will like your next trip even more! ❤ Russia have very different cultures and climate zones so you can receive very fresh experiences by travelling in different parts of it
Pffft. Travel to a country for a month and suddenly you just know everything about the economy there? I bet you reaaaaally interacted with people who are struggling in Russia right. I’m sooo sure the economy was great for you considering you came in trading a different currency for the ruble.
@ The experience is completely different if you’re someone who’s been saving and buying your assets with the Russian Ruble as opposed the the American dollar your whole life. My Aunt’s dying wish was to go see her family in Russia last year. She went there and it seemed really well and cheap for her, because she came exchanging USD for the Russian Ruble so her money went further. Her family members, life long citizens of Russia, struggled immensely as suddenly their lifelong savings were slashed to a fraction of their worth, they got laid off, wages reduced etc. People are in such economic distress that buying bread (even if it’s waaay cheaper than buying bread in America) is still a greater cost relative to their income. It’s basic economics. If I make 10 dollars a day and bread is 2.50, I’m better off that way than if I’m making 5 dollars a day and bread costs 2.45 That’s the reality of Russia right now for the average person…. Cheaper prices… but absolutely no money to be made.
i would come back and visit us agene soon because i fear that the Russian empire - or should i say the Russian Federation - will collapse soon ▪ Moral decay of the authorities and the people: lies, hypocrisy, deceit, denunciations, falsifications, aggressiveness, intolerance, xenophobia, chauvinism, acceleration of moral decay. ▪ Opposition to the whole world, endless conflicts, cold war, growth of internal centrifugal tendencies. ▪ Rapid degradation of elites, administrative and official apparatus degradation. ▪ Emigration of part of the progressive, thinking and educated population. ▪ Increased aggressive encroachments, rapid expansion of borders: many empires "choke" on new lands - die from inability to digest all that they have swallowed. ▪ Loss of efficiency and possibility of further development. ▪ Huge territories, provinces' distance, consequent difficulties of governance, national and religious contradictions. ▪ Gradual weakening of the imperial center, national conflicts and feuds. Struggle of the peripheries for power. ▪ Lack of modernization of the country. Stagnation. Material and moral deterioration. As a consequence, the "hurrah-patriotism" will be replaced by the destruction of the phenomenon of faith in the world spiritual and cultural primacy of Russia as an imperial nation. consider this as an explanation for Russian behaviour..... The USSR was a mighty empire once, that lost the cold war in a humiliating manner (they went bankrupt, lost identity and standing internationally !). In the 1990s, Russia suffered another humiliating period of poverty and corruption when communism failed. Russia, then failed to adapt to the Western economic and political models due to their leaders intransigence. They later failed to meet requirement to join NATO, and failed again while trying to join the EU. Russias political ideology was rejected by 95% of the world, who had moved on from autocratic dictatorships to more evolved systems of governance. When you consider it as a whole, that's a lot of "own goals" that Russia falsely sees as rejection of everything Russian, that's lead to Russia developing a national inferiority complex, that's bruised Putin's ego. Now add Ukraine to the mix! UKRAINE, to Russian's was a “popular little Brother” and when Ukraine embarked on a path to westernization, including EU and NATO membership, where greater prosperity, freedom and individuality was possible, it was frowned apon by "the less popular big brother" Russia. In the West, it's a natural progression when a country is “mature” enough to become an independent sovereign state, to decide to become a lawful, free-market democracy. (when "little brother" is ready to leave home and fend for himself! ) BUT for Russia, which has failed on that path several times itself, this aspiration by Ukraine became an imagined humiliation to the family and was looked on as a total rejection of the Russian political model, their philosophies and morality. Essentially, by choosing West over East, Ukraine was believed to be telling Russia that they don't need their "big brother" any more and that’s hard to take from a country seen as a “little brother”, when the "big brother" has an inferiority complex. So Russia fabricated rationalizations to keep Ukraine in the family, that gradually, when Ukraine rejected Russia's reasoning, were used to justify an attitude readjustment of "little brother" (invasion) to try to straighten them out and make them stay loyal to Russia's family. The programming of the Russian people started early in 2013 with rumours of Ukraine joining NATO, saying NATO was anti-russian and that it would be dangerous to have NATO, a purely defensive organisation, that had never threatened Russia, “too close to Moscow” on Russia's borders (conveniently forgetting Estonia, Norway, Lithuania, Latvia, etc were already on Russia's borders and had been so, peacefully, for 20 years) The Russian people were told Russia could not permit Nuclear weapons on their borders even though Ukraine had been rejected by NATO in 2017, so Ukraine arming with Nuclear weapons was never going to happen. More misinformation followed, with messages that “Westernization” of Ukraine was really a CIA campaign. That Ukraine was a nazi country, full of Nazis, lead by a Nazis (forgetting to mention that Zalensky's is Jewish, and that the far right got less than 2% in Ukraines election, gaining no seats in local or national government) Russias media repeatedly told the Russian people that Ukraine planned to attack Russia. That Ukraine was producing anti-slavic viruses. That Ukraine was committing genocide in the Donbas, etc. All misinformation constructed to brainwash the Russian people to gain support for the up coming "special military operation" AKA, Russian Ukraine war. Russia's TV channels incessantly and casually delivered their propaganda over the years slowly brainwashing the population, while most recently their stooges screamed about their nukes; screaming how they could vaporise countries at their leisure, screaming how easy it would be to obliterate London, Paris, Berlin, etc! Actions you don’t see on TV in the US, or France, or UK, or Israel or China or any rational thinking country for that matter, where they are secure in their national identity. But in Russia they are overcompensating for feeling inferior, so screaming “we have nukes” "we can Nuke you" helps to assuage that inferiority complex. Russia is now seen as a corrupt, almost destitute, desperate “GAS STATION WITH NUTS AND NUKES ” with few friends and a reputation to lie a lot, that means many countries don't trust them anymore. In simple terms, Russia has a fired up national inferiority complex, fanned by Putin's paranoia, which in turn fuels Russia's disgusting anti-social behavior at the country and international level.
If you talk about the Russian economy you should also consider Russian debt. If you do, you will find that the Russian economy is stronger than most countries in the west. Take the UK for example, its Debt to GDP ratio is 101.4% whilst Russia has a Debt to GDP ratio of 16%. The UK currently has to repay the World Bank more than its entire defence budget in debt repayments. Also consider that in the past 9 months ending in September Russian debt shrunk by $10.8 Billion, whilst the UK's debt increased by $56 billion in the same time frame.
so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯 why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ? i am also real (fellow) "real" Russian 💪💤🤍❤💙Russia number one big 🦛 🤏 I ASK FOR 100% facts from AI computer - for call out NATO bullsh*it - Super AI computer replied.... Nato vs Russia Economy Based on the latest available data, the combined GDP of NATO countries is significantly larger than that of the Russian Federation. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the total GDP of NATO member countries in 2022 was approximately $44.4 trillion. In contrast, the Russian Federation’s GDP in 2022 was around $1.7 trillion, according to the World Bank. To put this in perspective, the combined GDP of NATO countries is roughly 26 times larger than Russia’s GDP. Here’s a breakdown of the top 10 NATO countries by GDP: United States: $24.1 trillion Germany: $4.5 trillion United Kingdom: $2.6 trillion France: $2.5 trillion Italy: $1.9 trillion Canada: $1.8 trillion Japan: $1.7 trillion South Korea: $1.6 trillion Spain: $1.4 trillion Netherlands: $944 billion The remaining NATO countries have smaller economies, but collectively, they still contribute to the alliance’s massive economic might. Russia’s economy, while significant, is dwarfed by the combined economic power of NATO countries. This disparity is reflected in various economic indicators, including GDP per capita, trade volumes, and investment levels. It’s essential to note that economic strength is not the only factor in determining a country’s military capabilities or overall national power. Other factors, such as technological advancements, human capital, and strategic alliances, also play important roles. However, in terms of sheer economic size, NATO countries collectively have a substantial advantage over Russia. BUT WOT IF RUSSIA GO 100% WAR ECONOMY AI super computer forecast that Russia will be number one ... War Economy Impact on Manufacturing Offset by Zero Consumer Manufacturing: If Russia goes 100% war economy, the offset by zero consumer manufacturing will be significant, but the exact amount is difficult to quantify. However, it can be inferred that the reduction in consumer manufacturing will free up resources such as labor, materials, and facilities, which can be redirected to support the war effort. Labor: With zero consumer manufacturing, the workforce can be mobilized to work in defense industries, such as producing tanks, artillery, and other military equipment. Materials: The allocation of materials such as steel, aluminum, and other essential resources can be prioritized for military production, reducing the strain on the economy. Facilities: The repurposing of manufacturing facilities to produce military equipment can increase production capacity, allowing Russia to meet its military needs more efficiently. However, it is essential to note that a 100% war economy would likely lead to significant economic and social challenges, including shortages of essential goods, inflation, and decreased living standards for the civilian population. RUSSIA NUMBER ONE WAR FEED BACK LOOP 🤗 THE MOOR WAR THE MOOR WEALTH 🤑 WIN WIN - UNLESS YOU PEOPLE GROUP 404🤣 YOU WILL DIE FOR US GET RICH 😂😂😂
no no! You don't get it! the only important factor in economies is GDP!! How much the shareholders can squeeze out of already-struggling citizens to post a huge profit margin! it does not matter that the average american is struggling to get basic necessities! the corporations are thriving!!! (I hope the sarcasm was obvious enough)
The key thing no one's talking about, regarding high wages for Russian soldiers, is that they receive their salary in Rubles and spend 99% of it in Russia, so all this money is going back into the economy anyway.
@@GaySparklyFairy-n8u Why? Money is staying in Russia instead of moving to the US. And suddenly things start getting better. No surprise there. The US have been syphoning other countries for decades. If you stop that things get better, even with a war and sanctions.
Russia have trading partners right next door ... China, North Korea, Iran and India. Don't understand how sanctions can affect them because they're all on the same land mass.
Problem is the currency in alot of cases, for example Russia sits on alot of rupees that they cant use as per Lavrov. “We need to use this money. But for this, these rupees must be transferred in another currency, and this is being discussed now.” At the same time chinese banks are not accepting payment from Russia at the speed they did before as they are scared of loosing access to the dollar.
As Russian I was shocked to find out that Russia have a direct boarder with North Korea. We and North Korea share 40 kilometers of river boarder. And we have direct rail road connection via a bridge. It means we can trade freely, always could. But it was never mentioned on Russian TV, because we helped the US to ban and isolate North Korea for so long. Now we are under failing isolation attempt by the West. So nothing hinders us from closest cooperation with North Korea. Mutually profitable cooperation. Not even military.
Now you see the power of capital versus the power of commodities. You can issue money by pressing buttons on a company keyboard, try doing that with oil, fertilizer, wheat or any other products.
It should be noted that only perhaps 50 percent of the Russian defense budget is spent on war, the rest is spent on nuclear deterrence, maintenance of the fleet, training of the remaining 60 percent of the army not used in Ukraine. For Ukraine, the entire budget is for war. Finally, in the last quarter of the year, the state budget is in the positive quadrant.
32:00 Nearly all militaries are recruited from poor regions for the exact reasons Dr. Connolly provides -- there is an absense of alternative opportunities for poor people. In the US, the military is a path from poverty to middle class and obtaining an education. This trade is common and it makes sense why people accespt the risk.
I'm not sure about US. If you are not an officer with higher education, you're not becoming middle class through millitary. Not even close. Stable working class - yeah, but nothing more
And this is the scary part: the only ways to wage wars of aggression in this age is to have brought desperate poor people in your country willing to die for a promise of a better life. Poverty becomes essential to sovereignty, it's terrifying.
Since the beginning of time this has been true. Every single country of every single nation in the entire world for the entirety of History has recruited higher numbers of foot soldiers from more impoverished areas. This isn't like a revelation or some kind of epiphany to anyone but you.
And don't forget, the Russian military men are paid good wages. And those good wages mean there is bigger expenditure in buying things in shops, restaurants. So more money are circulating and the economy benefits from that. So, paying good wages to solders doesn't automatically mean, it is the country's 100 % economic loss. When the people have more money to spend, it helps others, like retail businesses.
@@Querulously MOEX went down hard because it was mostly listing companies oriented on exporting resourses to the western market. Not to mention traders believe western media. OP is wrong because money invested in military wages do not bust production powers. So they just kick inflation up.
@@TryCommonSense2446 Imports being cut off from the west means Russia sources cheaper items from elsewhere. Also, rich Russians having their financial assets illegally seized in the west has meant greater investment in Russia. You'll wait a long time for Russia to implode economically -- possibly longer than some western economies.
@@Querulouslymoex going down because there's no foreign capital / investment firms operating on the market. Locals see the stock market as a kind of a pyramid scheme and investors prefer to start a small / middle business for stable profit. Meanwhile gov started to double down on getting corporations to pay taxes without going through legal loopholes.
Dr Connolly touches on an overlooked aspect of economic sanctions on Russian banking, credit card use of Russians outside of Russia and the almost total block on Russian citizen spending outside of Russia. With that, all of the money earned, by ordinary workers and businessmen and oligarchs stays home in Russia and is plowed into investments throughout the Russian economy. That is a huge counter effect of the sanctions that strengthens the Russian economy at every level. As long as the western sanctions stay in place, every aspect of the Russian economy will expand.
@@felixfiedler4982 with near zero unemployment, guest workers from the CIS states are travelling to Russia to do menial labour while Russians are skilling up and taking the jobs that are reserved for them, for example, long haul trucking. The Russian govt is also providing lavish financial subsidies for industries that it denotes as critical, for example in making machine tools, semiconductors and aerospace ancilliaries.
@@AniruddhaShankar Low unemployment means that factories have to choose every last employee. If there were more workers, the factories could choose the best between more people. And, because the workers are in high demand, factories have to pay more and lose on revenue/profits. Profits enable investment and development. The workers could also invest, usually by depositing the money at a bank. Then the bank would loan out the money to the factories. This would lower the interest rate. However, the interest rate is above 20% and the inflation is also above 20%. So, let's write more poetry with ChatGPT.
I'm from Russia. Construction boom is over. Flats were overpriced and now there is a collapse in prices and in construction going right now. (High interest rate and changes in state sponsored morgage(which was something like 3%)). Well prices are going up. But everything is pretty manageable at this point.
I am Russian too. I confirm that information. In fact current real estate stagnation problems are not entirely related to war. Several years ago there was a kind of failed economic experiment in Russia - banks and construction companies have lobbied a law for a widely increased social spending on housing, in a form of subsidized mortgage interest rates. Naturally, it did not lead to a rapidly expanding housing construction, but lead to two negative factors instead: the prices for housing rapidly increased and an average length of a mortgage for a flat (apartment) has increased sharply as well. The government has realized that it reached quite the opposite goals to what was expected - the affordability of housing has dropped instead of increasing, and the only beneficiaries were banks and construction companies instead of population. So they have almost ceased those subsidies now, which in turn led to a rapidly cooling housing sales. Rapidly increased base rate has also contributed to a cooling of real estate market - loans are extremely expensive now and people try to avoid or postpone them till better times (after the war). At the same time a lot of soldiers earn substantial money and after a couple of years of an active duty can buy an apartment with no serious problems. And high employment and increased salaries also partially cover the increased cost of housing. So the situation is a bit controversial right now as you can see.
South Korean intelligence have stated that North Korea's artillery shell production is 4 million shells per year with the capacity to surge to 6 million. Before the conflict began western intelligence agencies reported that Russian artillery shell production was 300,000 a month. Russia has ample suply of forges to make barrels for their artillery pieces. In 2021 Russia had a forge for sale on the internet. It was Hitler who said that if Germany knew the USSR's ability to make tanks they would not have invaded. Most of the Russian military manufacturing were moved to the Urals during WW2 where they still are, out of range of everything except ICBMs!!!!! Russia has large steel, Aluminum, energy etc. production they have little limitations.
It's hard to defeat Russia in a long war as it's one of only seven states on Earth entirely self-sufficient for essential resources. Sadly, the most aggressive imperial state since WW2 -- the USA -- is also self-sufficient.
@PaIaeoCIive1684 The US is self sufficient yes, but the US has given up most of its manufacturing and are not willing to give up a luxury lifestyle. "For those who live suffering a little more suffering is inconvenient, but for those who have never suffered a little suffering can be catastrophic".
@@seeker2118 Indeed. When the US was an industrial powerhouse it only tended to impose itself on poor unfortunate countries in its own backyard. Now its less powerful industrially it imports much from China, but it still lives beyond its means and greedily bestrides the world plundering resources. Hence the regime-changing, proxy wars and US military bases in 2/3 of UN states.
GDP would tell you that $2 billion in onlyfans sales enabled by record consumer debt is twice as useful as $1 billion in high quality steel created by a surplus economy. In fact one of these can be used to build the world and one of these is literally mastubatory.
And how about taking a look at what IMF (western controled) is saying? IMF moved up Russian economy to 4th in the world few monts ago! So if you have any doubts about what is going on with Russian economy, they are doing better then ever.
The IMF's ranking is based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for local cost-of-living differences rather than reflecting international economic power. Russia's position in PPP terms indicates it can produce and consume more within its economy than might be apparent from nominal GDP, but it doesn’t imply stronger global economic leverage. Much of Russia's economic activity is buoyed by energy exports, which remain highly susceptible to price volatility and geopolitical shifts. The shift to discounted sales to alternative markets (e.g., China and India) signals a loss of bargaining power rather than growth
@@ZugZugMahogny This entire 2h show was about explaining how that's not true. And since you are just a bot don't wanna waste my time...listen to this conversation.
so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯 why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ? I ASK AI for 100% facts from AI computer - for call out NATO bullsh*it - why NATO so afraid for when Russia go 100% war economy Super AI computer replied.... Economic growth is driven by consumer spending: Historically, consumer spending has been a significant driver of economic growth, accounting for approximately 70% of GDP in the United States (Source: “Are Wars Good for the Economy?” snippet). A 100% war economy would eliminate this crucial sector, hindering overall economic growth. War economies are inherently inefficient: The “Wars without Gun Smoke” snippet highlights the inefficiencies of war economies, where resources are wasted on military spending rather than being allocated towards productive sectors. This inefficiency would hinder a country’s ability to achieve superpower status. Decline of consumer goods production: A zero% consumer sector would lead to a decline in production of consumer goods, including high-tech products, which are critical for a country’s competitiveness and innovation (Source: “Potential superpower” snippet). Brain drain and talent loss: The absence of a consumer sector would likely lead to a brain drain, as talented individuals would seek opportunities in other countries with more diversified economies (Source: “The Long-lasting Economic Shock of War” snippet). Dependence on foreign trade: A war economy would likely rely heavily on foreign trade, making it vulnerable to disruptions and fluctuations in global markets (Source: ““Wars without Gun Smoke”” snippet). Limited innovation and R&D: The focus on military production would divert resources away from civilian innovation and R&D, hindering a country’s ability to develop cutting-edge technologies and stay competitive (Source: “Potential superpower” snippet). Environmental degradation: War economies often prioritize military production over environmental concerns, leading to environmental degradation and potential long-term costs (Source: “The Long-lasting Economic Shock of War” snippet). Social unrest and inequality: A 100% war economy would likely exacerbate social unrest and inequality, as resources are concentrated in the military sector, leaving civilian populations with limited access to goods and services (Source: “The Long-lasting Economic Shock of War” snippet). Limited soft power: A country’s soft power, including its cultural and diplomatic influence, is often linked to its economic and consumer sectors. A 100% war economy would likely diminish a country’s soft power (Source: “Potential superpower” snippet). Historical examples: No country has achieved superpower status solely through a 100% war economy. Historically, superpowers have emerged from diversified economies with strong consumer sectors, such as the United States, Germany, and Japan (Source: “Are Wars Good for the Economy?” snippet). These 10 facts collectively argue that a 100% war economy with zero% consumer sector is unlikely to turn a country into the next superpower. Instead, a balanced economy with a strong consumer sector and diversified industries is more likely to drive long-term economic growth, innovation, and competitiveness. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK - RUSSIA NUMBER ONE BIG
Willy - best post ever. I lived in Russia and speak Russian, I am a farm boy and successful IT - Thank you for your post, feels like truth. I lived in Siberia. I know Russian - Russian son and wife. Cheers. I know heart and soul of Russians. PPP was a good point.
Russia is structured as a superpower, it is almost entirely self sufficient. There is still people thinking Netherlands has a bigger economy than Russia
I can see the situation from the inside since I live in Russia. Russian economy is not collapsing, but it's not really in a good place. Amount of cash that our government pours into economy (mostly via military spending) is absolutely staggering and it causes all of the prices to grow. Real estate prices, for example, increased massively after two years of war. Government slashed a few preferential mortgage programs and it still didn't help with real estate market overheat, prices only continued to climb up. Other problem is that Russian economy doesn't produce enough goods to satisfy internal demand and imports are expensive and inadequate as well. In theory this would allow local producers to produce and sell more, but in practice business owners are afraid to expand and invest in local production. What if tomorrow sanctions are lifted and foreign goods would regain their pre-war market share? There's also a problem with workforce, unemployment is low and it's challenging to fill in vacancies, especially in the industrial sector.
NIcely told especially the local production. I think the government has to give some incentives but then issue will be of manpower as unemployment is really low in russia but that's government has to decide
@@dushyantdushyant1879 yep and bringing in more foreign workforce isn't a popular idea among the locals due to increasing crime rates, especially assaults on women which had skyrocketed.. Most of the workforce coming to work in Russia nowadays are males from poor neighboring countries, it's still relatively safer than western europe tho in that regard
I’m also from Russia, mainly agree within the analysis, but your analysis missed the fact that economy growth in 2024 will be around 4%. This is 4 times more than average in the west. So, it is not surprise, that people have bigger salaries, and that is driving the inflation and real estate prices. But I disagree that local businesses are holding back investments, in contrast, the investments in the local production increased a few times. The problem is that the results of the investments will materialise in a few years time, not immediately. And in the meantime we have to fight the problems you mentioned like low unemployment, labour cost increase. But overall, these are the “good” problems to deal with, because they are associated with the growth, while EU economies have to deal with “bad” problems, because they are associated with decline.
I, as a Russian, never realized that wessies view us like that one country in EuroTrip movie. This is actually a shocker for me. Never would I have thought that people can be so blindfolded.
@boomer955 I'm from Croatia and believe me that people like my self don't have a nothing with this war.Evrithing come from US,UK and media who constantly giving false narrative about Russian people..not me..never.
As a Russian I confirm that the economy is doing fine. It is based on exporting oil and gas, so weak rouble is actually profitable for the state. For the people the unfortunate consequence is that iPhones and other imported consumer goods are getting more expensive. Yes, we have all kinds of sanctioned electronics and all. I wish this war was over though
Weak ruble is beneficial for economies of scale. If you have black gold and your currency becomes cheaper, it does nothing. It just means you can get more pieces of paper for 1kg of your black gold. Because the price of ruble has almost nothing to do with price of oil, nor gas.
Speaking of corruption - have a look at Aussie submarines with nuclear propulsion mate. If you are allowed to look that way, of course. Or, look at what is happening in the US Senate and Congress (Israely "lobbying" in a doublespeak language of wake mob).
so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯 why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ? I ASK AI SUPER COMPUTER TO PROVE YOU ARE CORRECT it replied.. Nato vs Russia Economy Based on the latest available data, the combined GDP of NATO countries is significantly larger than that of the Russian Federation. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the total GDP of NATO member countries in 2022 was approximately $44.4 trillion. In contrast, the Russian Federation’s GDP in 2022 was around $1.7 trillion, according to the World Bank. To put this in perspective, the combined GDP of NATO countries is roughly 26 times larger than Russia’s GDP. Here’s a breakdown of the top 10 NATO countries by GDP: United States: $24.1 trillion Germany: $4.5 trillion United Kingdom: $2.6 trillion France: $2.5 trillion Italy: $1.9 trillion Canada: $1.8 trillion Japan: $1.7 trillion South Korea: $1.6 trillion Spain: $1.4 trillion Netherlands: $944 billion The remaining NATO countries have smaller economies, but collectively, they still contribute to the alliance’s massive economic might. Russia’s economy, while significant, is dwarfed by the combined economic power of NATO countries. This disparity is reflected in various economic indicators, including GDP per capita, trade volumes, and investment levels. It’s essential to note that economic strength is not the only factor in determining a country’s military capabilities or overall national power. Other factors, such as technological advancements, human capital, and strategic alliances, also play important roles. However, in terms of sheer economic size, NATO countries collectively have a substantial advantage over Russia. KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK - RUSSIA NUMBER ONE BIG
I have realised since 2022 that my own vulnerability to propaganda in spite of all that my education taught me about critical thinking, is far, far greater than I ever believed. It is difficult to shake 55 years of brain programming!
Wow that's the first time I've ever seen anyone say that. Most people usually deny it's propaganda while others think they have amazing abilities to discern it. For me it's just recognising the same patterns that get repeated over and over
May everyone experience the same epiphany as you, becoming self aware of how they are affected, and aware of the propaganda that can/does affects them.
It's not easy to accept that you've consumed so much propaganda that your brain ain't thinking straight. Even when provided with actual facts, just had a long argument with my colleague at work with facts over the same issues.
Just look at the new apartments, new factories, warehouses, shopping centers, roads, railways, new greenhouses, motor vehicle production. These are not signs of collapsing economy.
Anyways… I will say it again. War and Money have no correlation in a country that produces 95% of everything it needs to survive. You don’t need outside money if your country is self sufficient
@@war8036 Russia isn't in survival mode though so that 95% number doesn't apply. So it does import a lot, including completely optional things like European olive oil and wines, and that does create the need for euros which does drop the rouble's value in accordance to trade imbalances. There's always a possibility to self isolate, but that have been purposely avoided and for good reasons. Market forces are what saved the Russian economy, and closing things up isn't even discussed nowadays
95%? That's great that Russia is a highly diversified economy. Unfortunately the finance minister and all other Russian economists don't agree that Russia is a highly diversified economy. They complain that they are 50% energy, which is absolutely NOT diversified and self-sufficient. Do they have a national brand shoemaker, sports equipment maker, airbag or airbag gas charger manufacturer? How many new cars are Russian made compared to Chinese branded (previously there was a diversity of international automakers in Russia). When your country's productivity is focused on war, whereby both the payroll and equipment go to non-productive ends (killing people, or being killed, or blowing up equipment or having your own equipment blown up) how is that sustainable? This is a not a slow-burning war as in US/Vietnam or US/Afghanistan, which consumed a small fraction of yearly GDP. For Russia, this is 1/3 of their economy, and completely unproductive. In fact, besides the high soldier salary, and using violent convicts as soldiers (which creates additional social problems to give them guns and return home with ptsd and permanent disabilities), taking otherwise productive civilians out of productive lines of work, that is an unsustainable problem. Add to that the brain drain and labor drain of fleeing Russians, and low low birth rate and migrants who will work temporarily in Russia but sure hell won't have their children. Birth tourism occurs in every productive country. Not in Russia. Oh, I'm gonna vacation in Russia during my pregnancy due date, get that birth certificate, return home, and during high school years send my child to live with a sponsored/paid family in Russia so they can socialed and educated in Russian and then return home as a highly sought-after professional. My child has birth tourism citizenship, graduated from a Moscow University and now can work anywhere in the world? Or maybe, choose to move to Russia and raise a family, live out their career there and retire there, as opposed to any where else in the world. People flee Russia. Foreigners are not banging down the doors of Russian consulates as ask for a student or professional or business visa to enter Russia long term.
Great discussion! I have several Russian friends who live in Russia (we're not talking about Moscow elite) While inflation certainly grew in the past 3 years and some western companies left, salaries have also risen and thus they are able to get everything they need. Cost of travelling abroad is much more expensive thus instead of Italy they travel to the Caspian Sea or Turkey where they have direct flights. Of course things were better before the war and this state of the economy cannot be maintained forever.
I live in Moscow and work in retail. The prices for everything have risen somewhere around 50% - 100% during the war, but my salary has only grown by 10%. Now I know things may differ across different fields of work, but literally everyone I know who doesn't get paid in dollars is WAY worse off than it used to be
@@ivanbadaev6621Huge difference yes. I know people who work close to the Military industry in factories and they are paid well, while others who work in pharmacutical companies are not.
"The prediction that Russia will run out of tanks has been in some sense correct, because at some point the earth will end" That's what this guy is saying.
Also, what he considers negative impacts, everyone except the grandmother who needs 7kg of sugar for her cakes every week, considers beneficial in the medium to long term. Russia likely would want a swift end to the conflict, but extending it for years has its own benefits
you are 1000% correct 👍💯 why they lie with 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ? i am also real (fellow) "real" Russian 💪💤🤍❤💙Russia number one big 🦛 🤏 Facts from AI computer - for call out NATO bullsh*it it replied Russia's Tank Production Capacity Hypothetical Scenario: Given infinite time and resources, Russia’s ability to produce tanks would be limited by factors such as technological advancements, manufacturing capacity, and logistical considerations. However, assuming these factors are optimized, Russia could potentially produce a large number of tanks. Plate Tectonics Threat: Ukraine as a nation state is not directly threatened by plate tectonics, as it is located in a relatively stable region. Plate tectonics is a geological process that shapes the Earth’s surface over millions of years, and it is not a immediate threat to any nation state. Comparison: In a hypothetical scenario where Russia has infinite time and resources to produce tanks, it is unlikely that Ukraine would be threatened by plate tonectics before Russia could produce a significant number of tanks. The timescale of plate tectonics is geological, spanning millions of years, whereas tank production is a matter of industrial capacity and technological advancements. Tank Production: Russia could potentially produce a large number of tanks given infinite time and resources, but this would depend on various factors such as manufacturing capacity, technological advancements, and logistical considerations. Plate Tectonics: Ukraine is not directly threatened by plate tectonics, as it is located in a relatively stable region. The timescale of plate tectonics is geological, and it is not a immediate threat to any nation state.
What people should understand is Russia is an export economy they have little dependents on imports. Also the Ruble is money in Russia, the dollar is not. The dollar is the world's reserve trading currency, that is the dollar is only money in international trade, so it is important for imports. Russia is not import oriented the dollar is not very important except in the import of luxuries. The Russian government has intentionally weakened the Ruble in the past to increase revenue. The fact that the West treated the Russian oligarchs like fugitives and siezed the assets in 2022 forced them to reinvest their profits inside Russia. The fact that western companies left Russia reduced the drain of foreign investments. This has forced Russians to become more self sufficient. GDP calculation (G+C+I+E-I/FI) Government spending+ Consumption+ Investment + Exports - Imports/foreign investments. Russia has huge government spending because of the conflict, more Rubles create high Consumption, more reinvestment inside Russia from Oligarchs and Exports to eastern countries in Ruble helps to offset inflation. Cutting Russia away from the swift system reduced imports.
@@sibo3921M Video was selling loads of new phones in the shops. Beeline network too. I didn't see any evidence that M Video were now concentrating on refurbished phones in Summer 2024
I live in Russia and I cannot agree with the information that the price of potatoes has increased by 70 percent in the last year. Inflation is 8 percent, but food inflation is 3-5 percent. Some foods such as butter have had significant increases, but anti-monopoly investigations are underway and the price seems to have stabilized now.
Potatoes have seasonal and sourcing fluctuations so it's the kind of data that can be manipulated arbitrarily. Maybe you were getting better imported potatoes in your supermarket before and now there are worse ones at the same price. Or maybe this dude's source compares prices right after harvest locally with the most expensive imported ones.
So kinda like how rent has over doubled in Canada (over the last 9 years) yet inflation is under control. I'd rather have potatoes increase by 70% than double our astronomical rents
This war has two main prongs: 1. Military war - conducted by Ukraine and supported by the west. 2. Economic war - conducted by the west. The economic war (e.g. sanctions and Swift disconnection) failed, leaving Ukraine to continue the military war... and losing. To better understand the arrogance and hubris behind this conflict, read the 2019 Rand report RR3063 "Extending Russia".
They pick on Russia but all Australia exports is Coal, Gas, wheat, Iron and Meat. If we didn`t have mountains of natural resource like Russia we would be buggered.
Projection is the true wunderwaffe or the western elites. The USA is the largest Energy Producer in the world. Meaning it sells the most Oil and Gas to the world. It is the worlds largest Gas station, if you look at it.
I`ve been trying to explain this to people , the price of Kinzhals , Islanders ...for Russia as a whole is zero , it doesn`t hurt Russia`s economy making them, it helps Russian economy.
If anything, the problem may be Russia readjusting to a peacetime economy after years of growth. So long as sufficient markets outside the west are found for exports the economy will see sustained growth. Also, the hypocritical west may resume trading with Russia after the hysteria abates.
Well they do have costs but ppl forgot about Purchasing Ratios ..for example in usa to produce 1 artilery shell codts around 8-10 kusd and in russia cost is around 1 k
@@Zona-rr2zp It doesn`t matter how much it costs , All the raw materials come from Russia and all the work is done buy Russians , Russian Gov. is paying Russians to make shells , all the money stays in Russia , Russians than spend money and trough taxes ( if you understand how taxes work ) all of the money comes back to Government and than just rinse and repeat. Money changes hands quickly , creating high velocity of money , good for the economy and speeds up getting money back to the Gov. Only thing Russia is spending are natural resources , but they have enough of that to keep this up for decades if not centuries. Have in mind that Russia is still selling gas and oil, coal , wood...whatever they were selling before the sanctions, so the money is still coming into Russia from the west .On the other hand due to sanctions , Russia is buying very little western goods , so money doesn`t go back to the west from Russia. To put it as simple as possible , Germans are still buying Russian gas but Russians are not buying BMWs and Mercs. That`s why Putin can increase military budget , they have more money , not less. And that increase will help the economy, not hurt it.
@@Zona-rr2zp "and in russia cost is around 1 k" Actually, the latest time someone tried to estimate that, they came out with a much MUCH lower number still. IIRC, around 1/3 or 1/4 of that. But because the factories produce them for the sake of the nation, they are sold to the state at production price, which is even lower still.
One thing we have to consider is the depths of suffering the Russian people are willing to endure to achieve a goal they see as worthy. That is something we cannot underestimate because that is why the soviets won over Germany. They were able to out-suffer them, and they could absolutely do the same to us.
Exactly right. I find it interesting that people that have no clue about that part of the world or the mentality of the people that live there think it's possible to collapse that country. They've been through hell between the various invasions, revolutions, civil war, the economic collapse of the 90s, and they are still here... But giving Ukraine some more weapons, or adding a few more sanctions will definitely do the trick... Riiiight.
Russians don't to get to vote or have their leaders vote for them in regards to starting or ending a war. There is no voice among the constituency. Its not Russia's war. Its Putin's war. Only he can decide to begin or end any war, or any special military operation.
I am Russian. This video was suggested to me by my friend in the Netherlands. By the title I immediately assumed it will be another propaganda video to lie and discredit Russia. To my surprise, I have heard pure facts and truth. I appreciate both participants, thank you for being truthful and objective. God bless
Anyone who follows the war closely will remember that Russia set aside USD680BILLION in the budget for the war at the beginning of the special operation and continued to spend it. So far, Russia has NOT borrowed money from anyone.
Funny - meanwhile reality in Russia :) - Banking rates 21%) = no private investments (housing market is crushing) +1 Rubble down to 1 cent - even with lower costs - average level of living is below Bulgaria (the poorest country in the EU) - minium salary: $210/month! - corruption is on Africa level (140th place /180) - created current flood in Russia - but excuse is that "rodents eaten the dam" ;) - infrastructure (apart from big cities) is 20 years behind Europe - commie looking towns+ poor villages - "brain drain" + population in decline (especially Slavic) - economy wise, Russia is becoming China vassal (totally depended on) - reserves are depleted - the war will be funded by higher taxes now - over 33% of Russian Black Sea fleet already sunk - 20% of houses has no inside toilet - medical care is crap: 7 years shorter lives vs Western Europe + one of the highest alcohol related desists. - "fake conservatism" - very high level of divorces/abortion/ child abandonment, etc. (only 8% of church attendees - lower than in Holland!) - "Green Revolution" will damage future profits soon (oil/gas economy) - Putin can't even protect Russia from Ukraine invasion - fact that you can go to prison for calling war a war (etc.), - is icing on the cake
Thanks for having this guy on Willy. Before the conflict I used to listen to several commentators who have gone down this path of becoming useless due to their ingestion of propaganda. That they are unable to accept they've been deceived nor come clean means I just can't trust them on any issues. People like Ziehan have shown themselves to be as usefull for forecasting as a pencil and a straight edged object (less useful than a ruler) with no ability to even plan around systems adapting, yet he presents his predictions as inevitabilities.
It's more organized and regulated here. The EU loves regulation. Corruption is no exception. Creates plenty of well paid jobs for bureaucrats to handle that.
A press conference late 2022 with the head of Russia's central bank Elvira Nabuilina is unique in the history of central bankers! She looked stunned as she presented the surprisingly good statistics on Russia's economy. While all central bankers always have tried to talk up their economic outlook, she instead talked it down. Saying that the downturn might just have been delayed. That much worse figures are to be expected ahead. Next year she admitted to having misjudged the situation (which is also unique in the history of central bankers!) That she has kept interest rates too low in anticipation of an economic downturn that never materialized. That's the reason for the high inflation (which has been high in Russia since 1980s anyway). Now she keeps the interest rates very high (and they have always been high in Russia anyway) in order to combat the higher than normal inflation. Now households are actually recording record savings, because their real wage increases are record high as workers are in short supply. Not so much because 1% of the population has joined the military, but because of the rapid industrialization. While companies borrow at high interest rates to finance industrial investments. The military expenditures reaching something like 8% of GDP is of course one big market for them. But note that this is financied with a balanced government budget! No 5% of GDP budget deficit as there is in the USA, the UK, France (for what?) But import substitution is an even bigger driving force. When for example French and German auto makers for political reasons have been sanctioned to abandon their manufacturing in Russia (and mostly consumer goods manufacturing), big business opportunities open up for domestic Russian entrepreneurs to replace them. They take loans at high interest rates in order to gain long-term market share advantages. In Russia they mainly go to the banks while in the West they would to a much higher degree go to venture capitalists and the stock market. It was similarly in continental Europe until globalization/financialization took over in the 1980s to 1990s. Traditionally German and French companies were mostly financied by borrowing from banks with a solid consumer savings inflow, banks who in turn "re-insured" their exposures among each other and with insurance companies using less tradable contracts. Not so much by the companies themselves directly floating bonds or stocks on the open market. I think that East Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan did in a similar way when they began to industrialize seriousy in the 1960s-1980s. Britain and the USA have kind of been the historic exceptions that the rest of the westernized countries have followed during the last few 3-4 decades.
Great interview - thanks for setting this up, Willy. It's an important question that several of my friends had also been wondering about so have referred them to this. Nice summary at 4:06 for the time poor.
I am positively amazed! Dr Connolly actually has a very deep and anccurate Understanding of Russian economy. Kudos for quoting Natalya Zubarevish, she is the best expert here in Russia. 0 propaganda, pure facts. Peace! 🕊
да... ВВП по ППС не идеален, но все же он ближе к реальности, чем номинальный ВВП. К тому же в России все еще очень большой показатель теневой экономики. Вот я например сейчас делаю ремонт. И даже с учетом того, что я старался делать все в законном поле, примерно о трети потраченной суммы налоговая служба РФ не узнает никогда(разве что из этого комментария). На курс рубля\доллара\юаня... большинству пофиг. Волатильность рубля настолько привычное и обыденное дело... как приход зимы. Экономика России растет несмотря не только на санкции, но даже на активное противодействие этому процессу со стороны ЦБ РФ. Да... некоторые отрасли и проекты замедлились и вынуждены перестраиваться. Зато другие получили сильный импульс для развития. По производству вооружений... Да Россия по большей части модернизирует старую технику... потому чо она есть и грех этот запас не использовать. Он как бы для того и делался. По мере его исчерпания, промышленность будет переходить на выпуск новой техники, так что ожидать, что она закончится или даже существенно снизится, по мейшей мере наивно. А что касается оружейных стволов... так это расходник... полагаю запас старых стволов, как и запас советских боеприпасов, закончился или близок к этому. И все расходники это уже новое производство. А раз мы не видим дефицита на фронте, значит с производством все ок.
so good advice 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯 I ask AI for moor fact to prove you are correct it replied .... Tax Avoidance in War Situations Based on the provided search results, here are 10 facts that suggest it might be beneficial to avoid taxes in a situation where one’s country is at war, but the individual does not care about their fellow citizens or the country’s overall prosperity: Taxation can be seen as a burden: Winston Churchill’s quote “A nation cannot tax itself into prosperity” implies that excessive taxation can hinder economic growth and prosperity, which might be a concern for an individual who doesn’t care about their country’s well-being. Tax avoidance can be a means to preserve wealth: The quote “There is no escaping the fact that when the taxation of large incomes is excessive, they tend to disappear” suggests that high taxes can lead to wealth disappearance, which might be a concern for an individual who wants to preserve their wealth, regardless of the country’s situation. Tax evasion can be a means to maintain power and influence: The quote “Qui vult dare parva non debet magna rogare” (“He who wishes to give little shouldn’t ask for much”) implies that those who have already secured success (wealth and power) should not be burdened with excessive taxation, which might appeal to an individual who doesn’t care about their country’s prosperity. Taxation can be seen as a form of forced redistribution: The quote “No matter what anyone may say about making the rich and the corporations pay the taxes, in the end they come out of the people who toil” suggests that taxation can be a means of forced redistribution, which might be undesirable for an individual who doesn’t care about their fellow citizens. Tax avoidance can be a means to maintain social distance: The quote “The property of the people belongs to the people. To take it from them by taxation cannot be justified except by urgent public necessity” implies that taxation can be seen as an encroachment on individual property rights, which might appeal to an individual who wants to maintain social distance from their fellow citizens. Tax evasion can be a means to preserve individual freedom: The quote “I want the people of America to be able to work less for the Government and more for themselves. I want them to have the rewards of their own industry. That is the chief meaning of freedom” suggests that taxation can be seen as a limitation on individual freedom, which might be a concern for an individual who values personal autonomy. Taxation can be seen as a means of government control: The quote “The method of raising revenue ought not to impede the transaction of business; it ought to encourage it” implies that taxation can be a means of government control over economic activity, which might be undesirable for an individual who doesn’t care about their country’s prosperity. Tax avoidance can be a means to maintain economic competitiveness: The quote “Rather than cut income tax, the government would do better to tax the country’s real wealth” suggests that taxation can hinder economic competitiveness, which might be a concern for an individual who wants to maintain their economic position. Tax evasion can be a means to preserve social status: The quote “The great triumph of the rich is that they have persuaded the average person to vote against taxes on wealth, such as inheritance tax, and taxes on property” implies that taxation can be seen as a threat to social status, which might be a concern for an individual who values their social standing. Tax avoidance can be a means to maintain personal security: The quote “The answer lies in the fact that while as a country we tax the incomes of PAYE employees relatively heavily, we leave the enormous wealth of the truly rich, much of it accumulated through property gains, largely untouched” suggests that taxation can be seen as a means of redistributive justice, which might be undesirable for an individual who prioritizes personal security and wealth preservation. GOOD WORK - KEEP IT UP !!!
Я еще могу понять насчет танков но насчет исчерпания стволов совсем какая то шиза, ей богу Россия это индустриальная страна которая проложила охренительный километраж газопроводов уж что что а металлические трубы российская экономика в любых нужных количествах произвести сможет, даже если требования по качеству к стволам для арты чутка повыше, это все еще не рокет сайенс
@@AtticusKarpenter о том и речь... Такое ощущение, что кто-то когда-то такой вброс сделал... и его теперь гоняют по кругу, ссылаясь друг на друга... Как с Киевом за три дня...
too simple: The modern economies all developed base on a few things: energy, technology, human resources, political system. Russia has all those thing to develop itself, they can swnd people into space decades ago, built fighter jets, hypersonic missles, grow foods...anything and they now have a strong balance of state owned companies and private sectors to build a strong economy and no on2 can stop that just not being friend to them.
Russia has 45% the population of the USA. But they graduate at least as many engineers every year! Sure, the top-of-the-top in many technologies are in the USA. But they have become so bad at turning it into actual businesses, at least in manufacturing. The JWST telescope, for example, is an engeineering piece of art! But just like any piece of art, it was "hand made" in laboratory settings by uniquely specilized experts, at the cost of $10 Billion. It's not really industry, it's research. And when a US company really excells in manufacturing, like SpaceX, it's not by implementing the most recent high-tech. But simply by efficient entrepreneurship. Building Starship out of steel instead of titanium, for example. And fueling it with methane instead of hydrogen. Because it's simpler! It's actually LOWER tech that has made SpaceX so successful. Their software stuff is certainly on the leading edge, but developing that competence over time is much about the number of engineer-level graduates, isn't it? The neocons fear Russian/China even North Korean EW and cyber warfare because you only need to pu lots of skilled highly educated people to work on it, without much expensive infrastructure at all. Albeit that the huge computational requirements for AI is a hurdle for that stuff. NVDIA develop the best chips for AI, but they are "fabless". They send the blueprints to Taiwan where they are manufactured. Which is one reason the neocons are so hysterical about Taiwan.
so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯 why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ? I ASK AI SUPER COMPUTER it reply..... Russia's Tank Production Capacity Given infinite time and resources, Russia’s ability to produce tanks would be limited by factors such as technological advancements, manufacturing capacity, and logistical considerations. However, assuming these factors are optimized, Russia could potentially produce a large number of tanks. Plate Tectonics Threat: Ukraine as a nation state is not directly threatened by plate tectonics, as it is located in a relatively stable region. Plate tectonics is a geological process that shapes the Earth’s surface over millions of years, and it is not a immediate threat to any nation state. Comparison: In a hypothetical scenario where Russia has infinite time and resources to produce tanks, it is unlikely that Ukraine would be threatened by plate tonectics before Russia could produce a significant number of tanks. The timescale of plate tectonics is geological, spanning millions of years, whereas tank production is a matter of industrial capacity and technological advancements. Tank Production: Russia could potentially produce a large number of tanks given infinite time and resources, but this would depend on various factors such as manufacturing capacity, technological advancements, and logistical considerations. Plate Tectonics: Ukraine is not directly threatened by plate tectonics, as it is located in a relatively stable region. The timescale of plate tectonics is geological, and it is not a immediate threat to any nation state.
As a Russian I mostly agree, but political system is a weak spot. We have energy, heavy industry and relatively advanced IT software industry. But the political system is too rigid, corrupt and KGB-like for a modern prosperous society. Also the justice system is basically serving the regime, if people in power want you in jail, with 99,9% chance you will be locked up. That prevents lots of business from growing and innovative people like Pavel Durov have to leave. Too much regulation as well
@@elena__sh Where in the world is it not like that? At least life in Russia has improved alot in the last 25 years, hasn't it? In Western Europe everything is falling apart. I'm all against Democracy, because in so far that any voter even cares, he cares only for himself and votes to loot others. Absolute Monarchy works because when one guy owns society in its entirety, he has good reasons to care for increasing its wealth, sustainability, satisfaction. His children will inherit it. It's the same incentives as any farmer has to run a good family business, through generations for many centuries. A temporarily elected politician has no other incentive than to loot as much as possible as quickly as possible. At least politicians with decades in a leading position have reason to plan ahead a few years. And maybe even care for leaving a good impression in the history books. No history book will mention AllOff Scholz other than in a footnote on the wrong page.
Sure, the problem was Russia cutting gas supplies. After Russia blew up its own pipeline rather then shutting it off and told EU to make it illegal to by Russian gas, Russia demanded payment for the gas that was delivered. What the hell was Russia thinking?
I can't believe people still think Russia blew up the pipeline .It is common knowledge that the U.S were behind it and look where Germany is getting their gas from now at a 70 increase in cost to Germany .Russia are not fools and would never blow up their own pipeline cause it makes zero sense .Even before it blew up Biden is on camera saying oh we will stop the pipeline and they did .Follow the money
Claiming that sanctions take time to have an impact seems incorrect to me because the longer the time given, the more opportunities there are for adaptation. They might even grow stronger overtime The 3 most significant effects of sanctions on Rus are 1. The oil industry (new pipeline came online with china might fix the it) 2. international banking ( their main perners adopting M-bridge stype payment could fix it) 3. the aviation sector (mc-21, ssj-100, pd8, pd14 delivering on their promises could fix it) Another minor issues is not being able to attend in things like Olympic, FIFA
While adaptation is valid , it often comes with significant costs. Building alternative infrastructures like pipelines, payment systems, or aviation industries requires years, vast investments, and external cooperation, which are not guaranteed. This period imposes economic stress and resource diversion that hampers other growth opportunities. Over time, sanctions may cause technological stagnation, limited market access, and capital flight. Even if adaptation occurs, it might lead to suboptimal solutions. For instance, trading with less efficient partners or relying on substandard domestic production can erode competitiveness. Furthermore loosing europe as a market make the pricing power shift to China, which can demand steep discounts. Over-reliance on one buyer (China) reduces bargaining strength, potentially weakening Russia’s long-term position. Alternative systems like M-Bridge rely on collaboration with a limited set of nations. Unlike SWIFT, which has near-global acceptance, these systems face skepticism from major economies
@@ZugZugMahogny First, while adaptation is costly and time-consuming, they have been working on it since 2014, not 2022. Many systems are now either in the final stages or fully operational (e.g., the China-Rus pipeline became fully operational last week, and domestic aircraft systems are certifying import-substituted components). Regarding technological stagnation, they are not truly isolated like NK, still receiving critical technologies from third parties and relying on rev€rse engineering. Necessity often drives innovation and motivation The limited market issue (lack of access to Europe and NA) is irrelevant, IMO. The West likely wouldn't buy tech from Rus anyway, given its own advancements. Rus's focus is on developing markets (Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and SA), especially as relationships between these regions and the We$t continuously deteriorating
The west continues to buy refined 'Indian' oil at 2.5 times the price they'd have got it had they bought it directly from Russia. When this Russiaphobic era ends they'll resume trading with Russia, but for now Russia is the bogeyman.
From a pipeline, PIPELINE OIL! No drop of oil owns a passport, like all the refugees. Questions about their origin are tagged as racist by mainstream media.
I wish you would have asked the GDP analysis of it being raised due to the investment of money into metal that is blown up on the battlefield and not really production of anything actually useful to the country
I loved the episode and I agree with the assessment about the wild exaggerations and cherry picking. This channel does that all the time too. If I were to look a bit at your video history it seems that the whole frontline has been collapsing for months but when you zoom out a bit you really see that it is a pretty small part of the whole theatre... So I would really appreciate if you would apply that same logic to your own channel Willy. Also, you never even questioned the interviewee about where does he get his data... as if Russian information is 100% reliable
Willy, why in the hell did you invite a reasonable person 😂 Please invite someone to double down on the Russian economy in TATERS ! Maybe Ursula ? She is going to lay down real facts 😂
Germany and Europe's economy has decline at a far greater rate than Russia, Ukraine is a failed state. It is not a demoracy, The US Dollar is under threat, debt is now unserviceable.
if you just take into account, that the russian oligarchs dont take their money to western tax havens anymore because of fear of confiscation, that are dozens of billions usd yearly, which are staying in russia and are being invested for profit... that alone could be some 2%+ for russian gdp.
Why would the trade value of rouble to dollar matter to Russia when it cannot import dollars 😂. Rouble was always an interbal, domestic currency to keep prices stable.
Thankyou Dr Richard Connolly for joining me to discuss the topic of the Russian economy and if it is close to collapse like many are suggesting.
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Willie the ethnic englishman (see his ethnic russian comments) is in useful idiot territory again. A very interesting discussion. It misses one absolutely vital starting point. We do not have the data to even start extrapolating on economic issues. Shame on you Richard for not starting with this point. Russia has stopped publishing this data (why?) so we do not have the range of data to cross check reasoning from a small number of data points. If you have no data you cannot draw accurate conclusions. The obscuring of the data feeds into/ is the foundation of the Russian Propaganda narrative, if something is uncertain it must be a great success. Richard then runs with this to support his implausible narrative in Russian propaganda style. Just a few points. 1) inflation is far more damaging and longer lasting than its superficial indicator immediate price increases (think of the cost of living you are feeling even though official inflation is now lower) 2) sanctions are not just economic they have physical effects that feed back into the economy. Think plane parts shortages, or shortages of oil & gas technology. 3) They feel the need to loot toilets (something we do have extensive data for) so we cannot compare their stoic tolerance of inconvenience to a western reaction. In summary I get your point, some commentators have been overblown in their predictions of collapse, but the reverse is not necessarily true. WE DO NOT HAVE ACCURATE DATA, no detailed discussion is possible.
I ONLY wish the best for the Russia people. I believe Russia will become only a bastion for progress and growth. Many people from other countries are fleeing for there due to the simply insane and sick pedo ideologies being pushed on their children. Russia stands for a man and a woman and that equals children NOT UNICORNS. If you are looking for a place where you can have conservative values then Russia is your place. Kind of what it used to be like in Canada USA and Australia. As far as I'm concerned GOD BLESS them. The demonic. Globalist elites can't handle it and they want Christianity to fail. Muslim and Christians can co habitate together ...WHY?? because they love their children and first and foremost they are Russians first! Borders language culture!
International Finance. Not your friend.
I'd love to hear about concrete examples of how Russia is authouritarian and not democratic I hear this claim in MSM all of the time. But I can't mention a single example. It'd be interesting to interview someone who could list all those examples! So that we can compare with the West.
How and why do your comments get erased. Pathetic. Nothing but positive input. I don't get it.
I tell you more: I'm Russian and I travelled to Canada and bought a macbook for myself. Than I arrived to Russia and realised that I could have bought it cheaper at home market.
Sure, since the demand from those who can afford one...is close to 0.
...
( Sweden )
good luck in accessing the app store and purchasing software. That might be the reason for why it is cheaper in Russia, no one wants one now? Same goes for PS5 consoles
@@gmdyt1 everything works just fine. All my colleagues in IT work on macs. It's cheap because Apple differentiate prices for different markets and because of taxes. If you bring a piece from a low tariff economy you can get your mac cheaper.
@@gmdyt1 Another example of how people reject reality just because it doesn't fit into their perception of life.
@gmdyt1 are you tired of being a hypocrite? Like isn't it tiring?
"Russia is more resilient than anything I ever encountered"- Napoleon
Napoleon captured Moscow, not knowing that St. Petersburg has been the capital for more than a century
@@Serg-qr5my he had 200 ping
I've always wondered about that. Maybe back then the barbarians also thought Moscow was sacred to the Russian people like Kyoto or something like that.
To collapse an economy, they first need to have one...
( Sweden )
Another way to tell, that they resorted to potato-trade...
( Sweden )
41:30 the same people that lied about Iraq lied to you again? Who would have thought?
Ikr, and they completely ignore the obvious.
if you believe the first lie its them, if you believe the third lie its you
Why go as far as Iraq. Remember what happened with Trump in Butler lol? Everybody swept it under the rug like nobodys business. And they still can't 2+2 on this. As literally everyone coming from their m. narrative is a li.
It's "thunk", not thought
@@theeltea thunk? are you trying to create your own language or did you just wrote that as a sick joke?
I remember when Willy was telling us that Russia was importing washing machines for microchips. Making progress Willy. I was shocked that anyone actually believed this but then I heard the president of the EU repeat this nonsense in a speech.
they probably did in a limited capacity for a period, but its negligible
My cynical view was that they were importing washing machines with missile microchips in addition to the washing machine microchips to dodge sanctions.
I really thought it was a joke until I saw the video clip from Von der Leyen, and an article from BBC. 😅 BBC lost all credibility to me. It’s even worse than CNN. Pure calculated propaganda.
@@Sub0x-x40 no we didn't. You're simply a gullible population who is entirely ignorant of Russia's capacities. And long may it hold. Knowing your enemy is a lesson NATO is too arrogant to take to heart.
that wasnt nonsense dude.! we literally SAW em hauling truckloads of "white tekk" back to HELL aka mommy ruSSia
I live in Thailand and the reduction of European and the increase in Russian tourists over the last 2 years is huge. Granted Russians can no longer go to Spain or Italy, but it also shows the situation in Europe.
The European Union is turning into a homeless shelter with constant protests people and garbage on the street. and everything is very, very expensive, not just expensive, but overpriced 2-3 times. it's not something that can be felt, it's just services why should I pay for services 3 times their real value? today in Russia there is a demand for Asian culture for Asian films for Japanese anime and of course tourist trips to Asia
Cost of living went up in Europe meaning people dont have enough for vacations and everybody wants to get out of russia makes sense
I was living in Vietnam and met multiple Russians who were living in Asia just to get away from being called up. They said they would go home when the war is over. (Played with five of them in a 7 aside football team, two were doctors, one was ex military and the other an art student).
But sure, Europeans have less money to spend nowadays and Thailand has also got more expensive as the cost of living there is rising too.
@@simonbrown7455 and then nobody called them up
@@simonbrown7455 I usually go to Vietnam and Thailand as a tourist and Ive heard some Russians told someone about "drafting and conscripting". So Ive asked them "Is it true?", so they've answered smth like "no, but these stupid americans believe in everything". some Russians saying that just for lulz, you know))
Russia's economy collapsed so hard that France and Germany parliament collapsed because they cannot agree on the budget, S.Korea prez orchestrated a coup because his parliament could not agree on the budget, and US's debt is keep mounting to unprecedented level.
Apparently it's all supposed to be cunning plan to collapse the russian economy by entering the EU into recession. At least according to official propaganda.
We've had 4 prime ministers in the UK since 2022 too ...
@@alfredlear4141 Man I swear of all the Great Empires in the world, UK probably has the worst fall. At least many others went out with a bang, UK literally became the vassal of their former vassal.
@@MinhVo-ig7no Indeed. Whether 'left' or 'right-wing' our regimes are little globalist poodles sucking up to Washington politically and identity nonsense socially. A pathetic shadow of our former selves.
@@alfredlear4141 What truly astonishes me is that all of them seem to be seriously mentally challenged
The very idea that a bunch of nations who are not energy self-sufficient could collapse the economy of a country that has literally every commodity within its own borders is frankly childish.
Childish,,,? I don't know any child backstabbing snakes,, but I do know some western leader backstabbing snakes! Children are more moral than these idiots!
WOW THEN HOW DID THE USSR COLLAPES ? It has literally every commodity within its own borders AND IT WAS BIGGER
i agree Russia is a nuclear power , but i disagree about, the claimed super power part.
north Korea is a nuclear power, but nobody would think, that made it a, "super power"
the USSR was a super power, the Russian federation is not the USSR
if you had seid Russia is a regional power i may have agreed with you
Sume facts, you overlooked, in thinking Russia, is the same thing, as the USSR.
Population: The USSR had a population of approximately 290 million, while the Russian Federation has a population of around 150 million, a decline of nearly 50%.
Geographic scope: The USSR encompassed 15 republics, including Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic States, whereas the Russian Federation is a single state.
Economic power: The USSR had a planned economy, which, although flawed, allowed for significant industrial production and military R&D. The Russian Federation has transitioned to a market economy, which has led to economic challenges, including a significant decline in industrial production and military capabilities.
Technological sophistication: The USSR was on par with or ahead of the United States in some areas of technology, particularly military technology, in the 1950s and 1960s. However, by the 1990s, the United States had pulled ahead in most areas, and the Russian Federation has struggled to catch up.
Global power projection: The USSR had a significant presence in Eastern and Central Europe, with client or puppet states, and maintained large military forces. The Russian Federation has a reduced military presence and lacks the same level of influence in the region.
Nuclear arsenal: While the Russian Federation still possesses a large nuclear arsenal, it is a remnant of the USSR’s superpower status and not a reflection of its current economic or military capabilities.
In summary, the Russian Federation is not the same superpower as the USSR due to significant declines in population, economic power, technological sophistication, and global influence. However, it is still a powerful country with a significant nuclear arsenal and a strong military presence in its immediate vicinity.
Lol. They buy oil from elsewhere. Russia can survive it is a question of quality of life.
@CheeseLovingGuy, Lol. The news really comes very slow to you 😏
the Russian empire had a collapse of it's economy and it has literally every commodity within its own borders ???
how to explain this ?
In Russia we have huge problems with access to videogames through Steam because of sanctions:((( So what do we left to do? Now we can spend much more time working productively on our factories. It's that simple.
And buy Russian indie games that absolutely thriving last several years while Western studios struggling to release games at all
(but it also just because AAA game industry is obsolete, there no more such gap in quality, more like trade off between actual fun and visual spectacle, but AAA games much more expensive and require much, much more expensive PC so why bother)
A reneisance of russian internet piracy
@iplaygames8090 Like it ever was at a decline lol.
@iplaygames8090yea as always the sanctions backfired. Not only did they lose the money from sales in Russia - there are tons of talented programmers there, that now easily crack any program on the market. AND raise the piracy in the western countries by the mere accessibility of such on the internet, while the inflation hits the western countries aswell.
So the companies also lost a ton of revenue from western countries, too.
Niche trivial concern but I wish a Russian studio would make a FPS game that competes with Battlefield. I bet they would do a good job at making realistic factions and vehicles and without pink bunny ear operators
Remember, we were told in April of 2022 that a $65B Russian debt payment would be blocked, putting it in a default, which would magically make the Russian economy collapse.
"We banned ourselves from receiving our money that you owe us hence we win"
Thank you for remind me this....!
I AGREE 1000% so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯
why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ?
💪💤🤍❤💙Russia number one big 🦛 🤏
100% facts from AI computer - for call out NATO bullsh*it -
Super AI computer replied....
Here are ten facts that may help convince Russophobes that are in a, political cult, that their cognitive dissonance, may be affecting, their conclusion, that Russia is an NOT an invincible superpower:
1. Russia’s military budget: While Russia has increased its military spending, it still lags behind the United States, China, and other major powers. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), in 2020, Russia’s military expenditure accounted for only 3.5% of global military spending, ranking 3rd globally. This challenges the notion of Russia as an “invincible” military superpower.
2. Economic indicators: Russia’s economy has struggled with stagnation and dependence on oil exports. In 2020, its GDP growth rate was only 1.3%, lower than many other major economies. This contradicts the idea of Russia as a dominant economic power.
3. Sanctions and international isolation: Russia has faced significant economic sanctions from the West, including the United States, European Union, and others, in response to its actions in Ukraine and alleged interference in foreign elections. This isolation and economic pressure undermine the notion of Russia as an “invincible” global power.
4. Demographic challenges: Russia faces significant demographic challenges, including a declining population, aging population, and low fertility rates. This could impact its military and economic capabilities in the long term.
5. NATO and European security: Despite Russia’s military buildup, NATO and European security structures remain robust and effective. The alliance has adapted to Russia’s actions, including the deployment of troops to Eastern Europe and the Baltic States.
6. Cybersecurity: While Russia has been accused of conducting cyberattacks, its capabilities are not as comprehensive or effective as often claimed. In fact, many cyberattacks attributed to Russia have been disputed or attributed to other actors.
7. International relations: Russia’s relationships with other major powers, including China, are complex and often contradictory. While Russia has strengthened ties with China, it also faces competition and tensions with Beijing.
8. Military vulnerabilities: Russia’s military has vulnerabilities, including an aging infrastructure, limited logistics capabilities, and dependence on outdated technology. Its military modernization efforts are ongoing but face significant challenges.
9. Alternative perspectives: Many experts and analysts, including those within Russia, have questioned the notion of Russia as an “invincible” superpower. Alternative perspectives emphasize Russia’s regional influence, limited global reach, and vulnerabilities.
10. Cognitive biases: Finally, it’s essential to recognize the role of cognitive biases in shaping beliefs about Russia’s capabilities. Confirmation bias, groupthink, and other biases can lead individuals to selectively emphasize information that supports their preconceptions while ignoring contradictory evidence.
These facts and perspectives can help challenge the notion of Russia as an “invincible superpower” and encourage a more nuanced understanding of its capabilities and limitations.
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK - RUSSIA NUMBER ONE STRONG
@@NJ-wb1cz this is really seem like a way to abuse some videogame rules that have to kick your opponent from the match
but there is in fact no such autoresolve in real world. Otherwise USA would be for decades under the tons of sanctions from all the illegal invasions
Yeah they acted like Russia owes as much as the us in debt but they only have 300 billion in debt and they can pay it off if they want to.
Just great to hear an articulate well informed expert who prioritises analysis over partisan information war fighting
such a valid point 👍
i use AI to prove to Russiaphobes👹 how correct you are 🧠 in making this comment 💯
AI replied
Expert vs Informed Person
Partisan Information War Dynamics: In the context of a partisan information war, a self-proclaimed well-informed expert may attempt to outsmart someone with a low IQ and limited information. However, the outcome depends on various factors, including the expert’s actual knowledge, communication skills, and the audience’s perception.
Information Overload: A person with a low IQ and limited information may struggle to process and analyze complex information, making them more susceptible to misinformation or manipulation.
Emotional Appeals: The expert may use emotional appeals, rhetorical devices, or logical fallacies to persuade the audience, rather than relying solely on factual information.
Cognitive Biases: Both parties may be influenced by cognitive biases, such as confirmation bias or the Dunning-Kruger effect, which can affect their ability to evaluate information objectively.
Communication Skills: The expert’s ability to communicate complex information in a clear and concise manner can significantly impact their ability to outsmart the less-informed individual.
Intelligence and Information: While IQ can be an indicator of cognitive ability, it is not the sole determinant of a person’s ability to process and evaluate information. Other factors, such as education, experience, and critical thinking skills, also play a significant role.
Critical Thinking: A person with a lower IQ may still be able to think critically and evaluate information effectively if they have developed strong critical thinking skills.
Domain-Specific Knowledge: Expertise in a specific domain can be more important than general intelligence in evaluating information and making informed decisions.
In conclusion, while a self-proclaimed well-informed expert may have an advantage in a partisan information war, the outcome depends on various factors, including their actual knowledge, communication skills, and the audience’s perception. Intelligence and information are complex and multifaceted, and a person’s ability to evaluate information effectively cannot be determined solely by their IQ or level of information.
Convincing a Vulnerable Individual: A salesman might use various tactics to convince a gullible low-intelligence person that rural Russia has the highest standard of living in the world.
Emotional Appeal: The salesman could appeal to the person’s emotions by showing them images or videos of happy, prosperous people living in rural Russia, creating a positive association with the region.
Misleading Statistics: The salesman might present misleading or cherry-picked statistics to support their claim, such as highlighting a specific aspect of rural Russian life that is better than in other countries, while ignoring other important factors.
Lack of Context: The salesman could avoid providing context or comparisons to other countries, making it difficult for the person to critically evaluate the claim.
Authority and Credibility: The salesman might pose as an expert or authority on the subject, using confident language and tone to convince the person of their credibility.
Simplification and Generalization: The salesman could oversimplify complex issues and make broad generalizations about rural Russia, making it seem like a utopia.
Playing on Biases: The salesman might play on the person’s existing biases or prejudices, using loaded language or stereotypes to create a positive impression of rural Russia.
Creating a Sense of Exclusivity: The salesman could make the person feel like they are part of a select group that has access to exclusive information or insights, making them more likely to accept the claim.
Хочу кое-что прокомментировать. Во-первых, начнем с того, что у Запада концепция развития в первую очередь связана с доминированием над другими. После распада СССР они получили монопольное положение и наивно полагали, что теперь они могут творить что хотят. Проблемой России после 1991 года стало то, что она рассчитывала на встраивание в западную политику на равных, но, как я уже упомянул, Запад не ведет политику на равных, они всегда делят мир на «господ» и «обслуживающий персонал», и для России они отводили именно роль обслуживающего персонала их интересов - та самая пропаганда в стиле «страна-бензоколонка». Чтобы Запад мог продолжать доминировать, стратегия политики была подавлять потенциал остальных, особенно это касается США, для которых вообще все являются конкурентами. И расширение НАТО - это всего лишь один из способов получения контроля и давления на конкурентов, в первую очередь на Россию, которая всю историю мешала их доминированию.
По поводу того, почему санкции не только не достигли результата, но и по сути дали обратный эффект. Во-первых, надо понимать, что у западной элиты сильно раздута самооценка, они без всяких сомнений считают, что они непобедимы, а все остальные - слабые и неспособные к сопротивлению страны, что приводит к ошибочным суждениям, где они переоценивают свои силы и сильно недооценивают конкурентов. Тем более что они привыкли нападать на небольшие страны и воевать против армий, состоящих из пастухов, но Россия - это одна из великих держав, недооценка ее потенциала уже сгубила Наполеона и Гитлера, да и до них было несколько «империй», закончивших свое существование после попыток напасть на Россию. Но я уже упомянул, что ошибкой России было предположение, что она встроится в западную цивилизацию на равных, вследствие чего она совершила ряд ошибок после распада СССР. Одной из которых было открытие собственного рынка для западных компаний, у которых были практически неограниченные ресурсы в виде денег, и они без особой конкуренции захватили большие доли рынка. В итоге это привело к тому, что они зарабатывали довольно большие деньги и выводили их к себе, реинвестирование прибыли было на самом низком уровне, а местные компании не могли с ними конкурировать. Когда ввели санкции, то под давлением политики со стороны западных стран многим западным компаниям пришлось уйти, но рынок не терпит пустоты, часть заместили китайские компании, но большую часть рынка стали занимать местные компании и производства. Это в первую очередь и привело к тому, что образовался дефицит кадров, а не военная операция. Но это привело еще к тому, что начался бурный рост производств, а местные компании, так как не выводили капитал за границу, начали активно реинвестировать в экономику России. И если посмотреть на статистику, то больший рост составил в производстве и обрабатывающей промышленности. Так что санкции ударили по логистике ввозимых товаров, усложнили возможность вывода денег за границу и отчасти на экспорт энергоресурсов, но все это так или иначе было компенсировано и обойдено. Но санкции также убрали западных конкурентов с внутреннего рынка, прекратили вывод капитала и позволили реинвестировать прибыль в собственную экономику. Кстати говоря, политика Трампа по протекционизму, вводу заградительных тарифов и так далее направлена на тот же эффект, только для США это будет торговой войной, инициированной ими самими, что, скорее всего, еще ударит по самим США, а России помогли это сделать санкции Запада без имиджевых последствий)) И если уж на то, то единственным пострадавшим от санкций и конфликта останется Европа, у которой банально оказалось нет суверенитета на принятие выгодных решений, а интересы собственных стран они заменили интересами США. Просто они не понимают или делают вид, что не понимают, что для США все потенциальные «враги» их доминированию, и Европа в том числе, а глупость, недальновидность и отсутствие суверенитета привели к кризису их экономики.
How’s Syria you orc
@@nematoad5821 Are you twitting from the underground shelter , without food and water , angry on yourself and the whole world ?
@@nematoad5821with Americas help greater Israel project is succeeding
@@emilkadd That's not so
Когда они начали вводить санкции, я в значительной степени предсказывал это. Конечно, надо мной смеялись (Германия). Но скорость, с которой это произошло, удивила даже меня.
Шутка в том, что я не экономический эксперт, а просто человек, обладающий здравым смыслом и готовый его использовать.
The Russian economy didn't collapsed during civil war. U.R.S.S. was NOT Russia, and the U.R.S.S. economy collapsed due to being almost exclusively connected to the former communist countries and 15 Soviet republics.
Russia's economy can't collapse as easily as some dream. Russia have a HUGE energy based economy, they can sell the energy anywhere, Russia have a solid and big enough industry/manufacturing economy and a MASSIVE agricultural economy.
Russia's debt is virtually ZERO.
Russia's economy is VERY, VERY FAR from collapsing...if it will EVER collapse.
"Too big to fail" would be the words you're looking for.
Well, our economic definitely collapsed.......at 1998.
>U.R.S.S. economy collapsed
it not economically collapsed. USSR was destroyed for political reason by political group on the top.
USSR economy so collapsed that after 30years RF still kicking in mostly thx to USSR "collapsed" heritage.
@@lexiusugrymius9392 Our economies aren’t backed by Commodities.
@@jeffmaxwell7391 some are. canada, australia etc
Only thing more embarrassing than being a gas station with nukes is being defeated by a gas station with nukes.
When Trump won Dems was in denial, then exploded in "we need left Joe Rogan and left Fox News!"
will.. they try to copy Russia (as they perceive it, nuke gas station with oligarchs) when they will lose the war?😂
ORCistan used to be a third world gas station ⛽
Now it's just a SHITHOLE 💩😅
@@AtticusKarpenterWoW 😅 Any point to that word salad ? 😅
@@BonusHole-x5ulol right I normally speak hillbilly and even I'm confused
You just have to ask why does the gas station have 5000 nukes to understand why gas station with nukes was always a bad description.
I love how in the west people think that russian missiles fly on western/chinese electronic chips. It is so cute, but (surprise surprise) Russia produce necessary military electronics domestically.
Meanwhile another Russian chip manufacturer went bankrupt
@@sibo3921 that is what your media tells you?) You are incorrigible.
@@77advanced this is Russian media
@@77advanced Russian media
@sibo3921 who ,name them ??
I'm one of the people who's convinced Russia is benefiting from sanctions. Not in GDP terms, that's not what I'm claiming. I do however think sanctions are in a way paying for a restructuring of Russia's economy that will be/is long term beneficial for Russia.
Think of it this way. Once Russia would have ordered a tool from Germany. Now they may have to have a university professor make a prototype and straight up create a production line within Russia. That incentivisation is enabled by sanctions.
That's true but it also means there is no competition, meaning Russian products aren't competitive. It's why Soviet cars from the early 90's were technologically equivalent to western cars from the 70s.
The issue is: You need cheap loans to organize production. The more easy way - just buy the same German tool from Turkey (with +30% price increase). Check for example car sales for all neighbour countries, they just skyrocket
@@TryCommonSense2446 Modern Russia relies on machine tool construction and the sale of finished products not only within the country, but also to African countries. Afghanistan, North Korea, Iran. Something to India. In Syria, due to the latest news, this is unlikely. In addition, the Northern Sea Route is actively developing. The north-south corridor. I am confident that the Eurasia Canal project, which is a water transport link between the Caspian Sea and the Azov-Black Sea basin, will be revived and implemented over time. For Iran, this is a direct water transport route to Central Europe. An alternative to the Suez Canal.
@@TryCommonSense2446 The West has no competitive industry! THat's why all Western consumers buy the superior technology products manufacured nuy the much higher skilled workers in societies with much beter infrastructure and less tazes and regulations and way more socially stable societies with a fraction of Western crime, for example.
And that's why all Western companies move their manufacturing to such more civilized societies. Thus, the West has nothing to sanction anyone with! The 1990s are over, wake up!
so true 👍 MSM🥱 like to portray that Russia💪 is geting in a feed back loop -
like that is a bad thing 🤔
i ask AI to explain why Russianphob's are 1000% WRONG
it replied
War Economy Impact on Manufacturing
Offset by Zero Consumer Manufacturing: If Russia goes 100% war economy, the offset by zero consumer manufacturing will be significant, but the exact amount is difficult to quantify. However, it can be inferred that the reduction in consumer manufacturing will free up resources such as labor, materials, and facilities, which can be redirected to support the war effort.
Labor: With zero consumer manufacturing, the workforce can be mobilized to work in defense industries, such as producing tanks, artillery, and other military equipment.
Materials: The allocation of materials such as steel, aluminum, and other essential resources can be prioritized for military production, reducing the strain on the economy.
Facilities: The repurposing of manufacturing facilities to produce military equipment can increase production capacity, allowing Russia to meet its military needs more efficiently. However, it is essential to note that a 100% war economy would likely lead to significant economic and social challenges, including shortages of essential goods, and decreased living standards for the civilian population.
wot this AI got wrong however is that ......
1) essential goods like butter are at an all time high
2) inflation, is at an all time low
3) the Russian standard of living is the best in the world
Saying Russias economy is collapsing is like saying NATO is winning😂
The economy is fine, like Syria is fine.
NATO isn’t fighting
@@mickapps3153 really? Who do you think trained and equipped the ukrainian army? Who do u think operates Himars systems? Who do you think collects and provides intelligence, data and targets inside Russia for atacm missiles? Who do you think launches those same missiles? Who do you think has the equipment, knowhow and capability to blow up Nordstream? Get over it boy, NATO is defeated by Russia alone.
Both are fantasy statements I would agree. Nato is not fighting. There is no reliable or honest data on the Russian economy so we cannot say.
@@mickapps3153 Really? So who trained and equipped the Ukrainian military for the last 10 years? NATO. Who financed it? NATO. Who operates systems like Himars? NATO. Who provides intelligence and targets inside Russia for atacm missile strikes? NATO. Next time when you say something, make sure you know the facts.
One of the best work you have put forward ever since the Russo-ukranian war! Kudos! Your guest was such a professional and sounds legit!
I just came back from 14 days holidays in Moscow. I'm a Swiss citizen who visited Russia in 2010 for the first time, lived in London for 6 months in 2023. Currently back in Zurich. In Moscow I saw the complete opposite of what happened in Western European big cities: just safe, secure, modern (autonomous robot cars deliver your food), no issue with lgbtq and wokeism, amazing public transportation, lovely people. We totally overestimate our development in Western Europe and totally underestimate Russia. I mean in Zurich I would have to wait up to a week to get a new debit card. In Moscow I got a t-bank debit card the next days, all via app. I was able to upload my rubles and even transferred some rubles via bybit from my usdc stablecoins.
I have done the same in St Petersburg in october. Same thought, plus the strange feeling my country was a third world country when I came back to France.
A few days is a lot for a bank card. You were probably waiting for a courier? If you went into a bank branch, you would come out with a card in 15 minutes.
Moscow and St Petersburg are amazing. One of my best friends are from Kirov Oblast and there, not so much amazing at all.
@ I can imagine, but guess what: some villages in northern england are also not London, nor are some villages in canton ticino or valais in Switzerland … but at least your huge capital city is way better off than london
Возможно поэтому западные страны ограничили въезд россиянам, чтобы они могли мечтать приехать в технологичную и чистую европу, не думаю, что агрессивная политика лидеров страны могла на такое повлиять, ну не варвары же в европе людей лишать мечты.
Extremely interesting and informative interview. Delightful to hear someone who prizes the importance of impartial analysis in a sea of people seemingly determined to drink in their own propaganda.
Thank you Willy, this has been one of your best, if not the best interview and guest as far as I'm concerned.
Keep being a Legend mate!
In conclusion: Any country with almost unlimited resources, when it stops or cannot export or import in certain markets, import or export to other markets. Easy...
A lot of people don't understand what sanctions really are. and the West confuses the concepts of survival or living comfortably! so Russia can always survive!!! inside Russia, there is everything you need for life. Russia needs exports and currency in order to live comfortably, and Europe needs it to survive. This is what distinguishes Russia from the West.
Also you have two countries right next door to each other. One is the most resource-rich country in the world, and the other is the manufacturing hub of the world.
Is this not the perfect symbiotic relationship, the perfect partnership?
In conclusion: God Emperor Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin is the leader of the century.
@@simonpedge Without a doubt, but all this confusion was also created to separate the most resource-rich country in the world "Russia" from the manufacturing engine in Europe "Germany" what was really difficult for the US markets to compete.
@@TheDayAfter1984Perhaps this is the bonus of US sanctions agsinst the Russian Federation, that is the destruction of German manufacturing.
Thankyou Dr. Richard Connolly and Willy for one of the very rare objective debates on the real situation about Russia, the war in Ukraine and the world. Willy, respect for your frank approach and desire to reveal the truth about the current state of the world, because this is very rare from pro-Western analysts.
the truth or what you wanted to hear....
I think any country, where 10/20 percentage of the population don't indoor plumbing tells me all I need to know about how advanced Russia is.
Good discussion. Question. If you both accept the Russian economy is better than reported by the west and the casualty numbers reported by the west is not accurate, why on earth do you continue to beat the drum for everything else they are saying? You’re getting there Willy. Someday. Enjoy the show….
Seeing neurotics trying to make progress in their logics is truly amusing, isn't it?
to make money off youtube discussing a topic their audience want to here. like everyone in this website.
@ triggered ;))). Enjoying the show…
Hello, I come in peace, friendly greetings from Russia.
All the western media looking at Russia’s economy so called collapsing whilst their own economies are collapsing is just hilariously stupid 😂
Funny - meanwhile reality in Russia :)
- Banking rates 21% = no private investments (housing market is crushing) +1 Rubble down to 1 cent
- even with lower costs - average level of living is below Bulgaria (the poorest country in the EU) - minium salary: $210/month!
- corruption is on Africa level (140th place /180) - created current flood in Russia - but excuse was that "rodents eaten the dam" ;)
- infrastructure (apart from big cities) is 20 years behind Europe - commie looking towns+ poor villages
- "brain drain" + population in decline (especially Slavic)
- economy wise, Russia is becoming China vassal (totally depended on)
- reserves are depleted - the war will be funded by higher taxes now
- over 33% of Russian Black Sea fleet already sunk
- 20% of houses has no inside toilet
- medical care is crap: 7 years shorter lives vs Western Europe + one of the highest alcohol related desists.
- "fake conservatism" - very high level of divorces/abortion/ child abandonment, etc. (only 8% of church attendees - lower than in Holland!)
- "Green Revolution" will damage future profits soon (oil/gas economy)
- Putin can't even protect Russia from Ukraine invasion in Kursk region + being kicked out from Syria now
- fact that you can go to prison for calling war a war (etc.), - is icing on the cake
@jacekboczarski6698 lol 😆 looks like you watch to mich ua propaganda
@@jacekboczarski6698 is that a copy and paste from CNN 😂
@@jacekboczarski6698 everything of what youve said is pure propaganda. I hope you got paid well for it.
@@jacekboczarski6698Well that is a long wishlist of wishful thinking. The question is do you understand much of what you articulated?
I’m a Kiwi and spent a month travelling Russia in April/May this year. Their economy was thriving while I was there (no cost of living crisis that’s for sure). It was such a good trip I’m heading back for 6 weeks next year
You are very welcome, i hope you will like your next trip even more! ❤
Russia have very different cultures and climate zones so you can receive very fresh experiences by travelling in different parts of it
Pffft. Travel to a country for a month and suddenly you just know everything about the economy there? I bet you reaaaaally interacted with people who are struggling in Russia right. I’m sooo sure the economy was great for you considering you came in trading a different currency for the ruble.
@@Al_Street_612 What is this cope? Go over there and see for yourself.
@
The experience is completely different if you’re someone who’s been saving and buying your assets with the Russian Ruble as opposed the the American dollar your whole life.
My Aunt’s dying wish was to go see her family in Russia last year. She went there and it seemed really well and cheap for her, because she came exchanging USD for the Russian Ruble so her money went further. Her family members, life long citizens of Russia, struggled immensely as suddenly their lifelong savings were slashed to a fraction of their worth, they got laid off, wages reduced etc. People are in such economic distress that buying bread (even if it’s waaay cheaper than buying bread in America) is still a greater cost relative to their income.
It’s basic economics. If I make 10 dollars a day and bread is 2.50, I’m better off that way than if I’m making 5 dollars a day and bread costs 2.45
That’s the reality of Russia right now for the average person…. Cheaper prices… but absolutely no money to be made.
i would come back and visit us agene soon because i fear that the Russian empire - or should i say the Russian Federation - will collapse soon
▪ Moral decay of the authorities and the people: lies, hypocrisy, deceit, denunciations, falsifications, aggressiveness, intolerance, xenophobia, chauvinism, acceleration of moral decay.
▪ Opposition to the whole world, endless conflicts, cold war, growth of internal centrifugal tendencies.
▪ Rapid degradation of elites, administrative and official apparatus degradation.
▪ Emigration of part of the progressive, thinking and educated population.
▪ Increased aggressive encroachments, rapid expansion of borders: many empires "choke" on new lands - die from inability to digest all that they have swallowed.
▪ Loss of efficiency and possibility of further development.
▪ Huge territories, provinces' distance, consequent difficulties of governance, national and religious contradictions.
▪ Gradual weakening of the imperial center, national conflicts and feuds. Struggle of the peripheries for power.
▪ Lack of modernization of the country. Stagnation. Material and moral deterioration. As a consequence, the "hurrah-patriotism" will be replaced by the destruction of the phenomenon of faith in the world spiritual and cultural primacy of Russia as an imperial nation.
consider this as an explanation for Russian behaviour.....
The USSR was a mighty empire once, that lost the cold war in a humiliating manner (they went bankrupt, lost identity and standing internationally !).
In the 1990s, Russia suffered another humiliating period of poverty and corruption when communism failed.
Russia, then failed to adapt to the Western economic and political models due to their leaders intransigence. They later failed to meet requirement to join NATO, and failed again while trying to join the EU.
Russias political ideology was rejected by 95% of the world, who had moved on from autocratic dictatorships to more evolved systems of governance.
When you consider it as a whole, that's a lot of "own goals" that Russia falsely sees as rejection of everything Russian, that's lead to Russia developing a national inferiority complex, that's bruised Putin's ego.
Now add Ukraine to the mix!
UKRAINE, to Russian's was a “popular little Brother” and when Ukraine embarked on a path to westernization, including EU and NATO membership, where greater prosperity, freedom and individuality was possible, it was frowned apon by "the less popular big brother" Russia.
In the West, it's a natural progression when a country is “mature” enough to become an independent sovereign state, to decide to become a lawful, free-market democracy. (when "little brother" is ready to leave home and fend for himself! )
BUT for Russia, which has failed on that path several times itself, this aspiration by Ukraine became an imagined humiliation to the family and was looked on as a total rejection of the Russian political model, their philosophies and morality.
Essentially, by choosing West over East, Ukraine was believed to be telling Russia that they don't need their "big brother" any more and that’s hard to take from a country seen as a “little brother”, when the "big brother" has an inferiority complex.
So Russia fabricated rationalizations to keep Ukraine in the family, that gradually, when Ukraine rejected Russia's reasoning, were used to justify an attitude readjustment of "little brother" (invasion) to try to straighten them out and make them stay loyal to Russia's family.
The programming of the Russian people started early in 2013 with rumours of Ukraine joining NATO, saying NATO was anti-russian and that it would be dangerous to have NATO, a purely defensive organisation, that had never threatened Russia, “too close to Moscow” on Russia's borders (conveniently forgetting Estonia, Norway, Lithuania, Latvia, etc were already on Russia's borders and had been so, peacefully, for 20 years)
The Russian people were told Russia could not permit Nuclear weapons on their borders even though Ukraine had been rejected by NATO in 2017, so Ukraine arming with Nuclear weapons was never going to happen.
More misinformation followed, with messages that “Westernization” of Ukraine was really a CIA campaign. That Ukraine was a nazi country, full of Nazis, lead by a Nazis (forgetting to mention that Zalensky's is Jewish, and that the far right got less than 2% in Ukraines election, gaining no seats in local or national government)
Russias media repeatedly told the Russian people that Ukraine planned to attack Russia. That Ukraine was producing anti-slavic viruses. That Ukraine was committing genocide in the Donbas, etc. All misinformation constructed to brainwash the Russian people to gain support for the up coming "special military operation" AKA, Russian Ukraine war.
Russia's TV channels incessantly and casually delivered their propaganda over the years slowly brainwashing the population, while most recently their stooges screamed about their nukes; screaming how they could vaporise countries at their leisure, screaming how easy it would be to obliterate London, Paris, Berlin, etc!
Actions you don’t see on TV in the US, or France, or UK, or Israel or China or any rational thinking country for that matter, where they are secure in their national identity.
But in Russia they are overcompensating for feeling inferior, so screaming “we have nukes” "we can Nuke you" helps to assuage that inferiority complex.
Russia is now seen as a corrupt, almost destitute, desperate “GAS STATION WITH NUTS AND NUKES ” with few friends and a reputation to lie a lot, that means many countries don't trust them anymore.
In simple terms, Russia has a fired up national inferiority complex, fanned by Putin's paranoia, which in turn fuels Russia's disgusting anti-social behavior at the country and international level.
If you talk about the Russian economy you should also consider Russian debt. If you do, you will find that the Russian economy is stronger than most countries in the west. Take the UK for example, its Debt to GDP ratio is 101.4% whilst Russia has a Debt to GDP ratio of 16%. The UK currently has to repay the World Bank more than its entire defence budget in debt repayments. Also consider that in the past 9 months ending in September Russian debt shrunk by $10.8 Billion, whilst the UK's debt increased by $56 billion in the same time frame.
so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯
why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ?
i am also real (fellow) "real" Russian 💪💤🤍❤💙Russia number one big 🦛 🤏
I ASK FOR 100% facts from AI computer - for call out NATO bullsh*it -
Super AI computer replied....
Nato vs Russia Economy
Based on the latest available data, the combined GDP of NATO countries is significantly larger than that of the Russian Federation.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the total GDP of NATO member countries in 2022 was approximately $44.4 trillion.
In contrast, the Russian Federation’s GDP in 2022 was around $1.7 trillion, according to the World Bank.
To put this in perspective, the combined GDP of NATO countries is roughly 26 times larger than Russia’s GDP.
Here’s a breakdown of the top 10 NATO countries by GDP:
United States: $24.1 trillion
Germany: $4.5 trillion
United Kingdom: $2.6 trillion
France: $2.5 trillion
Italy: $1.9 trillion
Canada: $1.8 trillion
Japan: $1.7 trillion
South Korea: $1.6 trillion
Spain: $1.4 trillion
Netherlands: $944 billion
The remaining NATO countries have smaller economies, but collectively, they still contribute to the alliance’s massive economic might.
Russia’s economy, while significant, is dwarfed by the combined economic power of NATO countries. This disparity is reflected in various economic indicators, including GDP per capita, trade volumes, and investment levels.
It’s essential to note that economic strength is not the only factor in determining a country’s military capabilities or overall national power. Other factors, such as technological advancements, human capital, and strategic alliances, also play important roles. However, in terms of sheer economic size, NATO countries collectively have a substantial advantage over Russia.
BUT WOT IF RUSSIA GO 100% WAR ECONOMY
AI super computer forecast that Russia will be number one ...
War Economy Impact on Manufacturing
Offset by Zero Consumer Manufacturing: If Russia goes 100% war economy, the offset by zero consumer manufacturing will be significant, but the exact amount is difficult to quantify. However, it can be inferred that the reduction in consumer manufacturing will free up resources such as labor, materials, and facilities, which can be redirected to support the war effort.
Labor: With zero consumer manufacturing, the workforce can be mobilized to work in defense industries, such as producing tanks, artillery, and other military equipment.
Materials: The allocation of materials such as steel, aluminum, and other essential resources can be prioritized for military production, reducing the strain on the economy.
Facilities: The repurposing of manufacturing facilities to produce military equipment can increase production capacity, allowing Russia to meet its military needs more efficiently. However, it is essential to note that a 100% war economy would likely lead to significant economic and social challenges, including shortages of essential goods, inflation, and decreased living standards for the civilian population.
RUSSIA NUMBER ONE WAR FEED BACK LOOP 🤗
THE MOOR WAR THE MOOR WEALTH 🤑
WIN WIN - UNLESS YOU PEOPLE GROUP 404🤣
YOU WILL DIE FOR US GET RICH 😂😂😂
no no! You don't get it! the only important factor in economies is GDP!! How much the shareholders can squeeze out of already-struggling citizens to post a huge profit margin! it does not matter that the average american is struggling to get basic necessities! the corporations are thriving!!!
(I hope the sarcasm was obvious enough)
@@DoIoannToKnowit was indeed
The key thing no one's talking about, regarding high wages for Russian soldiers, is that they receive their salary in Rubles and spend 99% of it in Russia, so all this money is going back into the economy anyway.
Cope harder 😅
@@GaySparklyFairy-n8uIs that what you're doing?
As is happening - with most of the salaries in every country :)
@@GaySparklyFairy-n8u Why? Money is staying in Russia instead of moving to the US. And suddenly things start getting better. No surprise there. The US have been syphoning other countries for decades. If you stop that things get better, even with a war and sanctions.
💩💩💩
Russia have trading partners right next door ... China, North Korea, Iran and India. Don't understand how sanctions can affect them because they're all on the same land mass.
The US are threatening to deploy carrier groups in the Caspian sea, and attack subs in the Baikal lake.......
@@larrousseyves9408 Although this sounds insane, nothing would surprise me about the mendacious US empire.
Problem is the currency in alot of cases, for example Russia sits on alot of rupees that they cant use as per Lavrov.
“We need to use this money. But for this, these rupees must be transferred in another currency, and this is being discussed now.”
At the same time chinese banks are not accepting payment from Russia at the speed they did before as they are scared of loosing access to the dollar.
@@ZugZugMahogny Couldn't they just convert them using the Chinese yuan as an in-between?
As Russian I was shocked to find out that Russia have a direct boarder with North Korea. We and North Korea share 40 kilometers of river boarder. And we have direct rail road connection via a bridge. It means we can trade freely, always could. But it was never mentioned on Russian TV, because we helped the US to ban and isolate North Korea for so long. Now we are under failing isolation attempt by the West. So nothing hinders us from closest cooperation with North Korea. Mutually profitable cooperation. Not even military.
Now you see the power of capital versus the power of commodities. You can issue money by pressing buttons on a company keyboard, try doing that with oil, fertilizer, wheat or any other products.
It should be noted that only perhaps 50 percent of the Russian defense budget is spent on war, the rest is spent on nuclear deterrence, maintenance of the fleet, training of the remaining 60 percent of the army not used in Ukraine. For Ukraine, the entire budget is for war. Finally, in the last quarter of the year, the state budget is in the positive quadrant.
What is the conclusion though, that Ukraine cannot afford nuclear deterrence, or that Russia should abandon theirs?
32:00 Nearly all militaries are recruited from poor regions for the exact reasons Dr. Connolly provides -- there is an absense of alternative opportunities for poor people. In the US, the military is a path from poverty to middle class and obtaining an education. This trade is common and it makes sense why people accespt the risk.
I'm not sure about US. If you are not an officer with higher education, you're not becoming middle class through millitary. Not even close. Stable working class - yeah, but nothing more
And this is the scary part: the only ways to wage wars of aggression in this age is to have brought desperate poor people in your country willing to die for a promise of a better life.
Poverty becomes essential to sovereignty, it's terrifying.
Path to middle class 😂😂😂 obviously you’ve never been to or know anyone from the U.S.A.
Since the beginning of time this has been true. Every single country of every single nation in the entire world for the entirety of History has recruited higher numbers of foot soldiers from more impoverished areas. This isn't like a revelation or some kind of epiphany to anyone but you.
@riveteye93 This has always been true. At any point in time in human history for thousands and thousands of years. Where have you been?
And don't forget, the Russian military men are paid good wages.
And those good wages mean there is bigger expenditure in buying things in shops, restaurants. So more money are circulating and the economy benefits from that.
So, paying good wages to solders doesn't automatically mean, it is the country's 100 % economic loss.
When the people have more money to spend, it helps others, like retail businesses.
If that was true MOEX would be going up Not down faster than any Western economy
@@Querulously MOEX went down hard because it was mostly listing companies oriented on exporting resourses to the western market. Not to mention traders believe western media.
OP is wrong because money invested in military wages do not bust production powers. So they just kick inflation up.
True, but how many of these purchases are for Russian products and how many are for imported products?
@@TryCommonSense2446 Imports being cut off from the west means Russia sources cheaper items from elsewhere. Also, rich Russians having their financial assets illegally seized in the west has meant greater investment in Russia. You'll wait a long time for Russia to implode economically -- possibly longer than some western economies.
@@Querulouslymoex going down because there's no foreign capital / investment firms operating on the market.
Locals see the stock market as a kind of a pyramid scheme and investors prefer to start a small / middle business for stable profit.
Meanwhile gov started to double down on getting corporations to pay taxes without going through legal loopholes.
Dr Connolly touches on an overlooked aspect of economic sanctions on Russian banking, credit card use of Russians outside of Russia and the almost total block on Russian citizen spending outside of Russia. With that, all of the money earned, by ordinary workers and businessmen and oligarchs stays home in Russia and is plowed into investments throughout the Russian economy. That is a huge counter effect of the sanctions that strengthens the Russian economy at every level. As long as the western sanctions stay in place, every aspect of the Russian economy will expand.
They cannot expand without labor and do not have the money to invest in new machines because high interest rates eat up their profits.
@@felixfiedler4982 with near zero unemployment, guest workers from the CIS states are travelling to Russia to do menial labour while Russians are skilling up and taking the jobs that are reserved for them, for example, long haul trucking. The Russian govt is also providing lavish financial subsidies for industries that it denotes as critical, for example in making machine tools, semiconductors and aerospace ancilliaries.
@@AniruddhaShankar Low unemployment means that factories have to choose every last employee. If there were more workers, the factories could choose the best between more people. And, because the workers are in high demand, factories have to pay more and lose on revenue/profits. Profits enable investment and development. The workers could also invest, usually by depositing the money at a bank. Then the bank would loan out the money to the factories. This would lower the interest rate. However, the interest rate is above 20% and the inflation is also above 20%. So, let's write more poetry with ChatGPT.
We could've had peace with Russia but Nato workers didn't want to lose their jobs.. Russia abandoned marxism but the EU has embraced it..
I'm from Russia. Construction boom is over. Flats were overpriced and now there is a collapse in prices and in construction going right now. (High interest rate and changes in state sponsored morgage(which was something like 3%)).
Well prices are going up. But everything is pretty manageable at this point.
I am Russian too. I confirm that information. In fact current real estate stagnation problems are not entirely related to war.
Several years ago there was a kind of failed economic experiment in Russia - banks and construction companies have lobbied a law for a widely increased social spending on housing, in a form of subsidized mortgage interest rates. Naturally, it did not lead to a rapidly expanding housing construction, but lead to two negative factors instead: the prices for housing rapidly increased and an average length of a mortgage for a flat (apartment) has increased sharply as well.
The government has realized that it reached quite the opposite goals to what was expected - the affordability of housing has dropped instead of increasing, and the only beneficiaries were banks and construction companies instead of population. So they have almost ceased those subsidies now, which in turn led to a rapidly cooling housing sales. Rapidly increased base rate has also contributed to a cooling of real estate market - loans are extremely expensive now and people try to avoid or postpone them till better times (after the war).
At the same time a lot of soldiers earn substantial money and after a couple of years of an active duty can buy an apartment with no serious problems. And high employment and increased salaries also partially cover the increased cost of housing.
So the situation is a bit controversial right now as you can see.
You can’t polish a turd😂
South Korean intelligence have stated that North Korea's artillery shell production is 4 million shells per year with the capacity to surge to 6 million. Before the conflict began western intelligence agencies reported that Russian artillery shell production was 300,000 a month. Russia has ample suply of forges to make barrels for their artillery pieces. In 2021 Russia had a forge for sale on the internet. It was Hitler who said that if Germany knew the USSR's ability to make tanks they would not have invaded. Most of the Russian military manufacturing were moved to the Urals during WW2 where they still are, out of range of everything except ICBMs!!!!! Russia has large steel, Aluminum, energy etc. production they have little limitations.
It's hard to defeat Russia in a long war as it's one of only seven states on Earth entirely self-sufficient for essential resources. Sadly, the most aggressive imperial state since WW2 -- the USA -- is also self-sufficient.
@PaIaeoCIive1684 The US is self sufficient yes, but the US has given up most of its manufacturing and are not willing to give up a luxury lifestyle. "For those who live suffering a little more suffering is inconvenient, but for those who have never suffered a little suffering can be catastrophic".
@@seeker2118 Indeed. When the US was an industrial powerhouse it only tended to impose itself on poor unfortunate countries in its own backyard. Now its less powerful industrially it imports much from China, but it still lives beyond its means and greedily bestrides the world plundering resources. Hence the regime-changing, proxy wars and US military bases in 2/3 of UN states.
@seeker2118 And the US has a habit of tapping out in wars.
@@LeadLeftLeon"tapping out in wars" "wars" not sure if special military operations are wars, we didn't go to land grab, annex or conquer.
GDP would tell you that $2 billion in onlyfans sales enabled by record consumer debt is twice as useful as $1 billion in high quality steel created by a surplus economy. In fact one of these can be used to build the world and one of these is literally mastubatory.
And how about taking a look at what IMF (western controled) is saying? IMF moved up Russian economy to 4th in the world few monts ago! So if you have any doubts about what is
going on with Russian economy, they are doing better then ever.
The IMF's ranking is based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which adjusts for local cost-of-living differences rather than reflecting international economic power. Russia's position in PPP terms indicates it can produce and consume more within its economy than might be apparent from nominal GDP, but it doesn’t imply stronger global economic leverage.
Much of Russia's economic activity is buoyed by energy exports, which remain highly susceptible to price volatility and geopolitical shifts. The shift to discounted sales to alternative markets (e.g., China and India) signals a loss of bargaining power rather than growth
@@ZugZugMahogny This entire 2h show was about explaining how that's not true.
And since you are just a bot don't wanna waste my time...listen to this conversation.
so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯
why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ?
I ASK AI for 100% facts from AI computer - for call out NATO bullsh*it -
why NATO so afraid for when Russia go 100% war economy
Super AI computer replied....
Economic growth is driven by consumer spending: Historically, consumer spending has been a significant driver of economic growth, accounting for approximately 70% of GDP in the United States (Source: “Are Wars Good for the Economy?” snippet). A 100% war economy would eliminate this crucial sector, hindering overall economic growth.
War economies are inherently inefficient: The “Wars without Gun Smoke” snippet highlights the inefficiencies of war economies, where resources are wasted on military spending rather than being allocated towards productive sectors. This inefficiency would hinder a country’s ability to achieve superpower status.
Decline of consumer goods production: A zero% consumer sector would lead to a decline in production of consumer goods, including high-tech products, which are critical for a country’s competitiveness and innovation (Source: “Potential superpower” snippet).
Brain drain and talent loss: The absence of a consumer sector would likely lead to a brain drain, as talented individuals would seek opportunities in other countries with more diversified economies (Source: “The Long-lasting Economic Shock of War” snippet).
Dependence on foreign trade: A war economy would likely rely heavily on foreign trade, making it vulnerable to disruptions and fluctuations in global markets (Source: ““Wars without Gun Smoke”” snippet).
Limited innovation and R&D: The focus on military production would divert resources away from civilian innovation and R&D, hindering a country’s ability to develop cutting-edge technologies and stay competitive (Source: “Potential superpower” snippet).
Environmental degradation: War economies often prioritize military production over environmental concerns, leading to environmental degradation and potential long-term costs (Source: “The Long-lasting Economic Shock of War” snippet).
Social unrest and inequality: A 100% war economy would likely exacerbate social unrest and inequality, as resources are concentrated in the military sector, leaving civilian populations with limited access to goods and services (Source: “The Long-lasting Economic Shock of War” snippet).
Limited soft power: A country’s soft power, including its cultural and diplomatic influence, is often linked to its economic and consumer sectors. A 100% war economy would likely diminish a country’s soft power (Source: “Potential superpower” snippet).
Historical examples: No country has achieved superpower status solely through a 100% war economy. Historically, superpowers have emerged from diversified economies with strong consumer sectors, such as the United States, Germany, and Japan (Source: “Are Wars Good for the Economy?” snippet).
These 10 facts collectively argue that a 100% war economy with zero% consumer sector is unlikely to turn a country into the next superpower. Instead, a balanced economy with a strong consumer sector and diversified industries is more likely to drive long-term economic growth, innovation, and competitiveness.
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK - RUSSIA NUMBER ONE BIG
Willy - best post ever. I lived in Russia and speak Russian, I am a farm boy and successful IT - Thank you for your post, feels like truth. I lived in Siberia. I know Russian - Russian son and wife. Cheers. I know heart and soul of Russians. PPP was a good point.
Dr Connolly is by far the sanest person I have listened to this year.
Russia is structured as a superpower, it is almost entirely self sufficient. There is still people thinking Netherlands has a bigger economy than Russia
Super power 😂
Yes, Prof. Mearsheimer also believe so.
Finally an English speaking channel saying the obvious, thank you, thank you very much !!!!
Well done Willy and Dr Richard...as usual you keep hitting the more crucial info coming out of the conflict.
PPP is the only relevant measure. The're buying artillery shells in kaluga with rubles not yoga classes in new york in dollars
I can see the situation from the inside since I live in Russia. Russian economy is not collapsing, but it's not really in a good place. Amount of cash that our government pours into economy (mostly via military spending) is absolutely staggering and it causes all of the prices to grow. Real estate prices, for example, increased massively after two years of war. Government slashed a few preferential mortgage programs and it still didn't help with real estate market overheat, prices only continued to climb up.
Other problem is that Russian economy doesn't produce enough goods to satisfy internal demand and imports are expensive and inadequate as well. In theory this would allow local producers to produce and sell more, but in practice business owners are afraid to expand and invest in local production. What if tomorrow sanctions are lifted and foreign goods would regain their pre-war market share? There's also a problem with workforce, unemployment is low and it's challenging to fill in vacancies, especially in the industrial sector.
NIcely told especially the local production. I think the government has to give some incentives but then issue will be of manpower as unemployment is really low in russia but that's government has to decide
Thank you. Your perspective helps. Low unemployment, yes. Can be problematic.
@@dushyantdushyant1879 yep and bringing in more foreign workforce isn't a popular idea among the locals due to increasing crime rates, especially assaults on women which had skyrocketed.. Most of the workforce coming to work in Russia nowadays are males from poor neighboring countries, it's still relatively safer than western europe tho in that regard
Another comment claims that his salary has doubled in two years, is that also true in your case?
I’m also from Russia, mainly agree within the analysis, but your analysis missed the fact that economy growth in 2024 will be around 4%. This is 4 times more than average in the west. So, it is not surprise, that people have bigger salaries, and that is driving the inflation and real estate prices. But I disagree that local businesses are holding back investments, in contrast, the investments in the local production increased a few times. The problem is that the results of the investments will materialise in a few years time, not immediately. And in the meantime we have to fight the problems you mentioned like low unemployment, labour cost increase. But overall, these are the “good” problems to deal with, because they are associated with the growth, while EU economies have to deal with “bad” problems, because they are associated with decline.
I, as a Russian, never realized that wessies view us like that one country in EuroTrip movie. This is actually a shocker for me. Never would I have thought that people can be so blindfolded.
Достоевского почитайте :) Он про умственные способности иностранцев в отношении России давно высказался. Поэтому и считается гением.
@@boomer955 можешь назвать роман?
i am Chinese， same as you😂
@-Alexey- дневник писателя. Написал он его после поездки в Европу. Там интересно написано про восточную Европу. Предсказал, что предадут не братья.
@boomer955 I'm from Croatia and believe me that people like my self don't have a nothing with this war.Evrithing come from US,UK and media who constantly giving false narrative about Russian people..not me..never.
As a Russian I confirm that the economy is doing fine. It is based on exporting oil and gas, so weak rouble is actually profitable for the state. For the people the unfortunate consequence is that iPhones and other imported consumer goods are getting more expensive. Yes, we have all kinds of sanctioned electronics and all. I wish this war was over though
Weak ruble is beneficial for economies of scale. If you have black gold and your currency becomes cheaper, it does nothing. It just means you can get more pieces of paper for 1kg of your black gold. Because the price of ruble has almost nothing to do with price of oil, nor gas.
Speaking of corruption - have a look at Aussie submarines with nuclear propulsion mate. If you are allowed to look that way, of course. Or, look at what is happening in the US Senate and Congress (Israely "lobbying" in a doublespeak language of wake mob).
But nothing of that is even in the same league as the corruption in Russia. Just ask any Russian near you
RUSSIA IS A LAND WITH RESOURCES !!!! EUROPE IS A LAND WITHOUT RESOURCES !!!! SO THATS THE ECO SYSTEM THATS THE ECONOMY !!!!! SO DO BE FOOLED !!
so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯
why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ?
I ASK AI SUPER COMPUTER TO PROVE YOU ARE CORRECT
it replied..
Nato vs Russia Economy
Based on the latest available data, the combined GDP of NATO countries is significantly larger than that of the Russian Federation.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the total GDP of NATO member countries in 2022 was approximately $44.4 trillion.
In contrast, the Russian Federation’s GDP in 2022 was around $1.7 trillion, according to the World Bank.
To put this in perspective, the combined GDP of NATO countries is roughly 26 times larger than Russia’s GDP.
Here’s a breakdown of the top 10 NATO countries by GDP:
United States: $24.1 trillion
Germany: $4.5 trillion
United Kingdom: $2.6 trillion
France: $2.5 trillion
Italy: $1.9 trillion
Canada: $1.8 trillion
Japan: $1.7 trillion
South Korea: $1.6 trillion
Spain: $1.4 trillion
Netherlands: $944 billion
The remaining NATO countries have smaller economies, but collectively, they still contribute to the alliance’s massive economic might.
Russia’s economy, while significant, is dwarfed by the combined economic power of NATO countries. This disparity is reflected in various economic indicators, including GDP per capita, trade volumes, and investment levels.
It’s essential to note that economic strength is not the only factor in determining a country’s military capabilities or overall national power. Other factors, such as technological advancements, human capital, and strategic alliances, also play important roles. However, in terms of sheer economic size, NATO countries collectively have a substantial advantage over Russia.
KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK - RUSSIA NUMBER ONE BIG
AMAZING Podcast!
Hi Matt, I hope you're dealing well with the chemotherapy 🙏❕️❔️
I have realised since 2022 that my own vulnerability to propaganda in spite of all that my education taught me about critical thinking, is far, far greater than I ever believed. It is difficult to shake 55 years of brain programming!
Here's 50 cents wumao 😂
Wow that's the first time I've ever seen anyone say that. Most people usually deny it's propaganda while others think they have amazing abilities to discern it. For me it's just recognising the same patterns that get repeated over and over
May everyone experience the same epiphany as you, becoming self aware of how they are affected, and aware of the propaganda that can/does affects them.
Man, you're a great person.
It's not easy to accept that you've consumed so much propaganda that your brain ain't thinking straight. Even when provided with actual facts, just had a long argument with my colleague at work with facts over the same issues.
Just look at the new apartments, new factories, warehouses, shopping centers, roads, railways, new greenhouses, motor vehicle production. These are not signs of collapsing economy.
Yes, they can now fit those new apartments with looted toilets :)
Anyways… I will say it again. War and Money have no correlation in a country that produces 95% of everything it needs to survive. You don’t need outside money if your country is self sufficient
Money is just a legal instrument to handle the exchange of goods.
@@war8036 Russia isn't in survival mode though so that 95% number doesn't apply. So it does import a lot, including completely optional things like European olive oil and wines, and that does create the need for euros which does drop the rouble's value in accordance to trade imbalances.
There's always a possibility to self isolate, but that have been purposely avoided and for good reasons. Market forces are what saved the Russian economy, and closing things up isn't even discussed nowadays
95%? That's great that Russia is a highly diversified economy. Unfortunately the finance minister and all other Russian economists don't agree that Russia is a highly diversified economy. They complain that they are 50% energy, which is absolutely NOT diversified and self-sufficient. Do they have a national brand shoemaker, sports equipment maker, airbag or airbag gas charger manufacturer? How many new cars are Russian made compared to Chinese branded (previously there was a diversity of international automakers in Russia). When your country's productivity is focused on war, whereby both the payroll and equipment go to non-productive ends (killing people, or being killed, or blowing up equipment or having your own equipment blown up) how is that sustainable? This is a not a slow-burning war as in US/Vietnam or US/Afghanistan, which consumed a small fraction of yearly GDP. For Russia, this is 1/3 of their economy, and completely unproductive. In fact, besides the high soldier salary, and using violent convicts as soldiers (which creates additional social problems to give them guns and return home with ptsd and permanent disabilities), taking otherwise productive civilians out of productive lines of work, that is an unsustainable problem. Add to that the brain drain and labor drain of fleeing Russians, and low low birth rate and migrants who will work temporarily in Russia but sure hell won't have their children. Birth tourism occurs in every productive country. Not in Russia. Oh, I'm gonna vacation in Russia during my pregnancy due date, get that birth certificate, return home, and during high school years send my child to live with a sponsored/paid family in Russia so they can socialed and educated in Russian and then return home as a highly sought-after professional. My child has birth tourism citizenship, graduated from a Moscow University and now can work anywhere in the world? Or maybe, choose to move to Russia and raise a family, live out their career there and retire there, as opposed to any where else in the world. People flee Russia. Foreigners are not banging down the doors of Russian consulates as ask for a student or professional or business visa to enter Russia long term.
Great discussion! I have several Russian friends who live in Russia (we're not talking about Moscow elite) While inflation certainly grew in the past 3 years and some western companies left, salaries have also risen and thus they are able to get everything they need. Cost of travelling abroad is much more expensive thus instead of Italy they travel to the Caspian Sea or Turkey where they have direct flights. Of course things were better before the war and this state of the economy cannot be maintained forever.
I live in Moscow and work in retail. The prices for everything have risen somewhere around 50% - 100% during the war, but my salary has only grown by 10%. Now I know things may differ across different fields of work, but literally everyone I know who doesn't get paid in dollars is WAY worse off than it used to be
Hyperinflation of prices affected everybody. Hyperinflation of salaries affected only CEOs.
@@ivanbadaev6621 "The prices for everything have risen somewhere around 50% - 100% during the war" - That's just a blatant exaggeration\lie.
@@ivanbadaev6621Huge difference yes. I know people who work close to the Military industry in factories and they are paid well, while others who work in pharmacutical companies are not.
@@dushas9871 Prove it
"The prediction that Russia will run out of tanks has been in some sense correct, because at some point the earth will end"
That's what this guy is saying.
correct
Also, what he considers negative impacts, everyone except the grandmother who needs 7kg of sugar for her cakes every week, considers beneficial in the medium to long term. Russia likely would want a swift end to the conflict, but extending it for years has its own benefits
you are 1000% correct 👍💯
why they lie with 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ?
i am also real (fellow) "real" Russian 💪💤🤍❤💙Russia number one big 🦛 🤏
Facts from AI computer - for call out NATO bullsh*it
it replied
Russia's Tank Production Capacity
Hypothetical Scenario: Given infinite time and resources, Russia’s ability to produce tanks would be limited by factors such as technological advancements, manufacturing capacity, and logistical considerations. However, assuming these factors are optimized, Russia could potentially produce a large number of tanks.
Plate Tectonics Threat: Ukraine as a nation state is not directly threatened by plate tectonics, as it is located in a relatively stable region. Plate tectonics is a geological process that shapes the Earth’s surface over millions of years, and it is not a immediate threat to any nation state.
Comparison: In a hypothetical scenario where Russia has infinite time and resources to produce tanks, it is unlikely that Ukraine would be threatened by plate tonectics before Russia could produce a significant number of tanks. The timescale of plate tectonics is geological, spanning millions of years, whereas tank production is a matter of industrial capacity and technological advancements.
Tank Production: Russia could potentially produce a large number of tanks given infinite time and resources, but this would depend on various factors such as manufacturing capacity, technological advancements, and logistical considerations.
Plate Tectonics: Ukraine is not directly threatened by plate tectonics, as it is located in a relatively stable region. The timescale of plate tectonics is geological, and it is not a immediate threat to any nation state.
Willy you’ve outdone yourself mate. Brilliant interview. Your guest is fantastic; well spoken and knowledgeable. Learnt so much. Just amazing
What people should understand is Russia is an export economy they have little dependents on imports. Also the Ruble is money in Russia, the dollar is not. The dollar is the world's reserve trading currency, that is the dollar is only money in international trade, so it is important for imports. Russia is not import oriented the dollar is not very important except in the import of luxuries. The Russian government has intentionally weakened the Ruble in the past to increase revenue.
The fact that the West treated the Russian oligarchs like fugitives and siezed the assets in 2022 forced them to reinvest their profits inside Russia. The fact that western companies left Russia reduced the drain of foreign investments. This has forced Russians to become more self sufficient.
GDP calculation (G+C+I+E-I/FI)
Government spending+ Consumption+ Investment + Exports - Imports/foreign investments. Russia has huge government spending because of the conflict, more Rubles create high Consumption, more reinvestment inside Russia from Oligarchs and Exports to eastern countries in Ruble helps to offset inflation. Cutting Russia away from the swift system reduced imports.
One of the biggest electric retailers sales have plummeted and they are now focusing on secondhand refurbished phones.
@sibo3921 this guy is in every comment section spreading lies , name the company , you can't, you just made that up !!
@@DylanMcCullough-dh3fe M Video, Russia's 2nd largest retailer of consumer electronics
@@sibo3921which retailer?
@@sibo3921M Video was selling loads of new phones in the shops. Beeline network too. I didn't see any evidence that M Video were now concentrating on refurbished phones in Summer 2024
Russia: oil, gas, petrochemicals, aluminum, grains, fertilizers, uranium, technology, manufacturing, and a lot of whoopass
I live in Russia and I cannot agree with the information that the price of potatoes has increased by 70 percent in the last year. Inflation is 8 percent, but food inflation is 3-5 percent. Some foods such as butter have had significant increases, but anti-monopoly investigations are underway and the price seems to have stabilized now.
Things are more expensive in the west than Russia.
@@GodsendTruth and much smaller amount of stock. Friends in RU showed their groceries store, it was healthier and better stocked than US/West.
Potatoes have seasonal and sourcing fluctuations so it's the kind of data that can be manipulated arbitrarily. Maybe you were getting better imported potatoes in your supermarket before and now there are worse ones at the same price. Or maybe this dude's source compares prices right after harvest locally with the most expensive imported ones.
vegetable prices are highly dependent on the season and harvest
So kinda like how rent has over doubled in Canada (over the last 9 years) yet inflation is under control. I'd rather have potatoes increase by 70% than double our astronomical rents
I really like this video, your guest is a really smart man and i like to listen what he says. Good job!
Purchasing Power Parity is the most important metric
The news sent Willie into a state of cognitive dissonance. How will he live with it?
This war has two main prongs:
1. Military war - conducted by Ukraine and supported by the west.
2. Economic war - conducted by the west.
The economic war (e.g. sanctions and Swift disconnection) failed, leaving Ukraine to continue the military war... and losing.
To better understand the arrogance and hubris behind this conflict, read the 2019 Rand report RR3063 "Extending Russia".
Absolutely superb interview! Thanks to both of you.
They pick on Russia but all Australia exports is Coal, Gas, wheat, Iron and Meat. If we didn`t have mountains of natural resource like Russia we would be buggered.
Projection is the true wunderwaffe or the western elites. The USA is the largest Energy Producer in the world. Meaning it sells the most Oil and Gas to the world. It is the worlds largest Gas station, if you look at it.
I`ve been trying to explain this to people , the price of Kinzhals , Islanders ...for Russia as a whole is zero , it doesn`t hurt Russia`s economy making them, it helps Russian economy.
If anything, the problem may be Russia readjusting to a peacetime economy after years of growth. So long as sufficient markets outside the west are found for exports the economy will see sustained growth. Also, the hypocritical west may resume trading with Russia after the hysteria abates.
Well they do have costs but ppl forgot about Purchasing Ratios ..for example in usa to produce 1 artilery shell codts around 8-10 kusd and in russia cost is around 1 k
@@Zona-rr2zp It doesn`t matter how much it costs , All the raw materials come from Russia and all the work is done buy Russians , Russian Gov. is paying Russians to make shells , all the money stays in Russia , Russians than spend money and trough taxes ( if you understand how taxes work ) all of the money comes back to Government and than just rinse and repeat. Money changes hands quickly , creating high velocity of money , good for the economy and speeds up getting money back to the Gov.
Only thing Russia is spending are natural resources , but they have enough of that to keep this up for decades if not centuries.
Have in mind that Russia is still selling gas and oil, coal , wood...whatever they were selling before the sanctions, so the money is still coming into Russia from the west .On the other hand due to sanctions , Russia is buying very little western goods , so money doesn`t go back to the west from Russia.
To put it as simple as possible , Germans are still buying Russian gas but Russians are not buying BMWs and Mercs.
That`s why Putin can increase military budget , they have more money , not less. And that increase will help the economy, not hurt it.
This works if the missile manufacturing plant is owned (or controlled) by the state. Otherwise, you will buy a rocket at ten times the market price.
@@Zona-rr2zp "and in russia cost is around 1 k"
Actually, the latest time someone tried to estimate that, they came out with a much MUCH lower number still.
IIRC, around 1/3 or 1/4 of that.
But because the factories produce them for the sake of the nation, they are sold to the state at production price, which is even lower still.
here the key point. low debt.
that Biggest reason why russia can afford war more years. but west can't
One thing we have to consider is the depths of suffering the Russian people are willing to endure to achieve a goal they see as worthy. That is something we cannot underestimate because that is why the soviets won over Germany. They were able to out-suffer them, and they could absolutely do the same to us.
Exactly right. I find it interesting that people that have no clue about that part of the world or the mentality of the people that live there think it's possible to collapse that country. They've been through hell between the various invasions, revolutions, civil war, the economic collapse of the 90s, and they are still here... But giving Ukraine some more weapons, or adding a few more sanctions will definitely do the trick... Riiiight.
Especially since most of the goals of the leadership in the collective west are more likely to be deemed unworthy by their own populations
Russians don't to get to vote or have their leaders vote for them in regards to starting or ending a war. There is no voice among the constituency. Its not Russia's war. Its Putin's war. Only he can decide to begin or end any war, or any special military operation.
That was extremely insightful. Thanks Willy.
I am Russian. This video was suggested to me by my friend in the Netherlands. By the title I immediately assumed it will be another propaganda video to lie and discredit Russia. To my surprise, I have heard pure facts and truth. I appreciate both participants, thank you for being truthful and objective. God bless
LOL. Sounds like a fairy tale
@@Zamerika-xr8nt Whatever makes you sleep better at night
Surprisingly almost unbiased. Thumbs up!
It would be interesting to see a comparable interview for the German economy for the same period.
Russian advance in Ukraine accelerates the duran
Russia's Economy Collapsing - not a chance
Anyone who follows the war closely will remember that Russia set aside USD680BILLION in the budget for the war at the beginning of the special operation and continued to spend it. So far, Russia has NOT borrowed money from anyone.
@bloggallbrazil do you mean the 680 billion frozen in western banks?
Funny - meanwhile reality in Russia :)
- Banking rates 21%) = no private investments (housing market is crushing) +1 Rubble down to 1 cent
- even with lower costs - average level of living is below Bulgaria (the poorest country in the EU) - minium salary: $210/month!
- corruption is on Africa level (140th place /180) - created current flood in Russia - but excuse is that "rodents eaten the dam" ;)
- infrastructure (apart from big cities) is 20 years behind Europe - commie looking towns+ poor villages
- "brain drain" + population in decline (especially Slavic)
- economy wise, Russia is becoming China vassal (totally depended on)
- reserves are depleted - the war will be funded by higher taxes now
- over 33% of Russian Black Sea fleet already sunk - 20% of houses has no inside toilet
- medical care is crap: 7 years shorter lives vs Western Europe + one of the highest alcohol related desists.
- "fake conservatism" - very high level of divorces/abortion/ child abandonment, etc. (only 8% of church attendees - lower than in Holland!)
- "Green Revolution" will damage future profits soon (oil/gas economy)
- Putin can't even protect Russia from Ukraine invasion
- fact that you can go to prison for calling war a war (etc.), - is icing on the cake
@@jacekboczarski6698are you a real person? You just hoovered up propaganda and regurgitate it like its fact.
@@jacekboczarski6698 And yet they still roll forward
Thanks for having this guy on Willy. Before the conflict I used to listen to several commentators who have gone down this path of becoming useless due to their ingestion of propaganda. That they are unable to accept they've been deceived nor come clean means I just can't trust them on any issues. People like Ziehan have shown themselves to be as usefull for forecasting as a pencil and a straight edged object (less useful than a ruler) with no ability to even plan around systems adapting, yet he presents his predictions as inevitabilities.
Regarding the corruption taking their cut, that happens in the west as well, it's just legalized and is called profit.
It's more organized and regulated here. The EU loves regulation. Corruption is no exception. Creates plenty of well paid jobs for bureaucrats to handle that.
Call it lobbying. Sounds familiar?
Finally a economist’s opinion that have the facts to back it up 👍👊👊
A press conference late 2022 with the head of Russia's central bank Elvira Nabuilina is unique in the history of central bankers! She looked stunned as she presented the surprisingly good statistics on Russia's economy. While all central bankers always have tried to talk up their economic outlook, she instead talked it down. Saying that the downturn might just have been delayed. That much worse figures are to be expected ahead.
Next year she admitted to having misjudged the situation (which is also unique in the history of central bankers!) That she has kept interest rates too low in anticipation of an economic downturn that never materialized. That's the reason for the high inflation (which has been high in Russia since 1980s anyway). Now she keeps the interest rates very high (and they have always been high in Russia anyway) in order to combat the higher than normal inflation.
Now households are actually recording record savings, because their real wage increases are record high as workers are in short supply. Not so much because 1% of the population has joined the military, but because of the rapid industrialization. While companies borrow at high interest rates to finance industrial investments. The military expenditures reaching something like 8% of GDP is of course one big market for them. But note that this is financied with a balanced government budget! No 5% of GDP budget deficit as there is in the USA, the UK, France (for what?)
But import substitution is an even bigger driving force. When for example French and German auto makers for political reasons have been sanctioned to abandon their manufacturing in Russia (and mostly consumer goods manufacturing), big business opportunities open up for domestic Russian entrepreneurs to replace them. They take loans at high interest rates in order to gain long-term market share advantages. In Russia they mainly go to the banks while in the West they would to a much higher degree go to venture capitalists and the stock market.
It was similarly in continental Europe until globalization/financialization took over in the 1980s to 1990s. Traditionally German and French companies were mostly financied by borrowing from banks with a solid consumer savings inflow, banks who in turn "re-insured" their exposures among each other and with insurance companies using less tradable contracts. Not so much by the companies themselves directly floating bonds or stocks on the open market. I think that East Asian countries like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan did in a similar way when they began to industrialize seriousy in the 1960s-1980s. Britain and the USA have kind of been the historic exceptions that the rest of the westernized countries have followed during the last few 3-4 decades.
Great interview - thanks for setting this up, Willy. It's an important question that several of my friends had also been wondering about so have referred them to this.
Nice summary at 4:06 for the time poor.
You def upped the ante with this one. Great work m8!
I am positively amazed! Dr Connolly actually has a very deep and anccurate Understanding of Russian economy. Kudos for quoting Natalya Zubarevish, she is the best expert here in Russia. 0 propaganda, pure facts. Peace! 🕊
From France I really enjoy your program. Very interesting and down to hearth !!! We need more !!!
Courage Willy !!!
We''re all behind you.
Some of people i know gone for job to Russia. I see no will to come back!
Great interview Williy. Very interesting and informative.
Willy, it's good that your channel is becoming a little more objective. Thanks for the interview and for inviting Dr Richard Connolly.
да... ВВП по ППС не идеален, но все же он ближе к реальности, чем номинальный ВВП. К тому же в России все еще очень большой показатель теневой экономики. Вот я например сейчас делаю ремонт. И даже с учетом того, что я старался делать все в законном поле, примерно о трети потраченной суммы налоговая служба РФ не узнает никогда(разве что из этого комментария). На курс рубля\доллара\юаня... большинству пофиг. Волатильность рубля настолько привычное и обыденное дело... как приход зимы. Экономика России растет несмотря не только на санкции, но даже на активное противодействие этому процессу со стороны ЦБ РФ. Да... некоторые отрасли и проекты замедлились и вынуждены перестраиваться. Зато другие получили сильный импульс для развития. По производству вооружений... Да Россия по большей части модернизирует старую технику... потому чо она есть и грех этот запас не использовать. Он как бы для того и делался. По мере его исчерпания, промышленность будет переходить на выпуск новой техники, так что ожидать, что она закончится или даже существенно снизится, по мейшей мере наивно. А что касается оружейных стволов... так это расходник... полагаю запас старых стволов, как и запас советских боеприпасов, закончился или близок к этому. И все расходники это уже новое производство. А раз мы не видим дефицита на фронте, значит с производством все ок.
so good advice 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯
I ask AI for moor fact to prove you are correct
it replied ....
Tax Avoidance in War Situations
Based on the provided search results, here are 10 facts that suggest it might be beneficial to avoid taxes in a situation where one’s country is at war, but the individual does not care about their fellow citizens or the country’s overall prosperity:
Taxation can be seen as a burden: Winston Churchill’s quote “A nation cannot tax itself into prosperity” implies that excessive taxation can hinder economic growth and prosperity, which might be a concern for an individual who doesn’t care about their country’s well-being.
Tax avoidance can be a means to preserve wealth: The quote “There is no escaping the fact that when the taxation of large incomes is excessive, they tend to disappear” suggests that high taxes can lead to wealth disappearance, which might be a concern for an individual who wants to preserve their wealth, regardless of the country’s situation.
Tax evasion can be a means to maintain power and influence: The quote “Qui vult dare parva non debet magna rogare” (“He who wishes to give little shouldn’t ask for much”) implies that those who have already secured success (wealth and power) should not be burdened with excessive taxation, which might appeal to an individual who doesn’t care about their country’s prosperity.
Taxation can be seen as a form of forced redistribution: The quote “No matter what anyone may say about making the rich and the corporations pay the taxes, in the end they come out of the people who toil” suggests that taxation can be a means of forced redistribution, which might be undesirable for an individual who doesn’t care about their fellow citizens.
Tax avoidance can be a means to maintain social distance: The quote “The property of the people belongs to the people. To take it from them by taxation cannot be justified except by urgent public necessity” implies that taxation can be seen as an encroachment on individual property rights, which might appeal to an individual who wants to maintain social distance from their fellow citizens.
Tax evasion can be a means to preserve individual freedom: The quote “I want the people of America to be able to work less for the Government and more for themselves. I want them to have the rewards of their own industry. That is the chief meaning of freedom” suggests that taxation can be seen as a limitation on individual freedom, which might be a concern for an individual who values personal autonomy.
Taxation can be seen as a means of government control: The quote “The method of raising revenue ought not to impede the transaction of business; it ought to encourage it” implies that taxation can be a means of government control over economic activity, which might be undesirable for an individual who doesn’t care about their country’s prosperity.
Tax avoidance can be a means to maintain economic competitiveness: The quote “Rather than cut income tax, the government would do better to tax the country’s real wealth” suggests that taxation can hinder economic competitiveness, which might be a concern for an individual who wants to maintain their economic position.
Tax evasion can be a means to preserve social status: The quote “The great triumph of the rich is that they have persuaded the average person to vote against taxes on wealth, such as inheritance tax, and taxes on property” implies that taxation can be seen as a threat to social status, which might be a concern for an individual who values their social standing.
Tax avoidance can be a means to maintain personal security: The quote “The answer lies in the fact that while as a country we tax the incomes of PAYE employees relatively heavily, we leave the enormous wealth of the truly rich, much of it accumulated through property gains, largely untouched” suggests that taxation can be seen as a means of redistributive justice, which might be undesirable for an individual who prioritizes personal security and wealth preservation.
GOOD WORK - KEEP IT UP !!!
Я еще могу понять насчет танков но насчет исчерпания стволов совсем какая то шиза, ей богу
Россия это индустриальная страна
которая проложила охренительный километраж газопроводов
уж что что а металлические трубы российская экономика в любых нужных количествах произвести сможет, даже если требования по качеству к стволам для арты чутка повыше, это все еще не рокет сайенс
@@AtticusKarpenter о том и речь... Такое ощущение, что кто-то когда-то такой вброс сделал... и его теперь гоняют по кругу, ссылаясь друг на друга... Как с Киевом за три дня...
too simple: The modern economies all developed base on a few things: energy, technology, human resources, political system. Russia has all those thing to develop itself, they can swnd people into space decades ago, built fighter jets, hypersonic missles, grow foods...anything and they now have a strong balance of state owned companies and private sectors to build a strong economy and no on2 can stop that just not being friend to them.
Russia has 45% the population of the USA. But they graduate at least as many engineers every year! Sure, the top-of-the-top in many technologies are in the USA. But they have become so bad at turning it into actual businesses, at least in manufacturing. The JWST telescope, for example, is an engeineering piece of art! But just like any piece of art, it was "hand made" in laboratory settings by uniquely specilized experts, at the cost of $10 Billion. It's not really industry, it's research.
And when a US company really excells in manufacturing, like SpaceX, it's not by implementing the most recent high-tech. But simply by efficient entrepreneurship. Building Starship out of steel instead of titanium, for example. And fueling it with methane instead of hydrogen. Because it's simpler! It's actually LOWER tech that has made SpaceX so successful.
Their software stuff is certainly on the leading edge, but developing that competence over time is much about the number of engineer-level graduates, isn't it? The neocons fear Russian/China even North Korean EW and cyber warfare because you only need to pu lots of skilled highly educated people to work on it, without much expensive infrastructure at all. Albeit that the huge computational requirements for AI is a hurdle for that stuff. NVDIA develop the best chips for AI, but they are "fabless". They send the blueprints to Taiwan where they are manufactured. Which is one reason the neocons are so hysterical about Taiwan.
whoa you're smart
so very good point 👍💢spot on true 💯🎯
why they keep believe lie of 100% MSM propagandize from west and devil IMF ?
I ASK AI SUPER COMPUTER
it reply.....
Russia's Tank Production Capacity
Given infinite time and resources, Russia’s ability to produce tanks would be limited by factors such as technological advancements, manufacturing capacity, and logistical considerations. However, assuming these factors are optimized, Russia could potentially produce a large number of tanks.
Plate Tectonics Threat: Ukraine as a nation state is not directly threatened by plate tectonics, as it is located in a relatively stable region. Plate tectonics is a geological process that shapes the Earth’s surface over millions of years, and it is not a immediate threat to any nation state.
Comparison: In a hypothetical scenario where Russia has infinite time and resources to produce tanks, it is unlikely that Ukraine would be threatened by plate tonectics before Russia could produce a significant number of tanks. The timescale of plate tectonics is geological, spanning millions of years, whereas tank production is a matter of industrial capacity and technological advancements.
Tank Production: Russia could potentially produce a large number of tanks given infinite time and resources, but this would depend on various factors such as manufacturing capacity, technological advancements, and logistical considerations.
Plate Tectonics: Ukraine is not directly threatened by plate tectonics, as it is located in a relatively stable region. The timescale of plate tectonics is geological, and it is not a immediate threat to any nation state.
As a Russian I mostly agree, but political system is a weak spot. We have energy, heavy industry and relatively advanced IT software industry. But the political system is too rigid, corrupt and KGB-like for a modern prosperous society. Also the justice system is basically serving the regime, if people in power want you in jail, with 99,9% chance you will be locked up. That prevents lots of business from growing and innovative people like Pavel Durov have to leave. Too much regulation as well
@@elena__sh Where in the world is it not like that? At least life in Russia has improved alot in the last 25 years, hasn't it? In Western Europe everything is falling apart.
I'm all against Democracy, because in so far that any voter even cares, he cares only for himself and votes to loot others. Absolute Monarchy works because when one guy owns society in its entirety, he has good reasons to care for increasing its wealth, sustainability, satisfaction. His children will inherit it. It's the same incentives as any farmer has to run a good family business, through generations for many centuries.
A temporarily elected politician has no other incentive than to loot as much as possible as quickly as possible. At least politicians with decades in a leading position have reason to plan ahead a few years. And maybe even care for leaving a good impression in the history books. No history book will mention AllOff Scholz other than in a footnote on the wrong page.
Sure, the problem was Russia cutting gas supplies. After Russia blew up its own pipeline rather then shutting it off and told EU to make it illegal to by Russian gas, Russia demanded payment for the gas that was delivered. What the hell was Russia thinking?
I can't believe people still think Russia blew up the pipeline .It is common knowledge that the U.S were behind it and look where Germany is getting their gas from now at a 70 increase in cost to Germany .Russia are not fools and would never blow up their own pipeline cause it makes zero sense .Even before it blew up Biden is on camera saying oh we will stop the pipeline and they did .Follow the money
Russia blew up its own pipelines?? Really????
Please, say " It's irony".
@@lexiusugrymius9392 irony
bruh
Claiming that sanctions take time to have an impact seems incorrect to me because the longer the time given, the more opportunities there are for adaptation. They might even grow stronger overtime
The 3 most significant effects of sanctions on Rus are
1. The oil industry (new pipeline came online with china might fix the it)
2. international banking ( their main perners adopting M-bridge stype payment could fix it)
3. the aviation sector (mc-21, ssj-100, pd8, pd14 delivering on their promises could fix it)
Another minor issues is not being able to attend in things like Olympic, FIFA
Let's wait until at least 2027 to see what happens
While adaptation is valid , it often comes with significant costs. Building alternative infrastructures like pipelines, payment systems, or aviation industries requires years, vast investments, and external cooperation, which are not guaranteed. This period imposes economic stress and resource diversion that hampers other growth opportunities.
Over time, sanctions may cause technological stagnation, limited market access, and capital flight. Even if adaptation occurs, it might lead to suboptimal solutions. For instance, trading with less efficient partners or relying on substandard domestic production can erode competitiveness.
Furthermore loosing europe as a market make the pricing power shift to China, which can demand steep discounts. Over-reliance on one buyer (China) reduces bargaining strength, potentially weakening Russia’s long-term position.
Alternative systems like M-Bridge rely on collaboration with a limited set of nations. Unlike SWIFT, which has near-global acceptance, these systems face skepticism from major economies
Good luck with 10 nanometer scale chip production
@@gmdyt1 china can help.
@@ZugZugMahogny First, while adaptation is costly and time-consuming, they have been working on it since 2014, not 2022. Many systems are now either in the final stages or fully operational (e.g., the China-Rus pipeline became fully operational last week, and domestic aircraft systems are certifying import-substituted components).
Regarding technological stagnation, they are not truly isolated like NK, still receiving critical technologies from third parties and relying on rev€rse engineering. Necessity often drives innovation and motivation
The limited market issue (lack of access to Europe and NA) is irrelevant, IMO. The West likely wouldn't buy tech from Rus anyway, given its own advancements. Rus's focus is on developing markets (Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and SA), especially as relationships between these regions and the We$t continuously deteriorating
India and China have suddenly become very large oil exporters. Where's the oil coming from?! 😅😂😂
The west continues to buy refined 'Indian' oil at 2.5 times the price they'd have got it had they bought it directly from Russia. When this Russiaphobic era ends they'll resume trading with Russia, but for now Russia is the bogeyman.
They always were, they import crude and exoprt refined products.
From a pipeline, PIPELINE OIL!
No drop of oil owns a passport, like all the refugees. Questions about their origin are tagged as racist by mainstream media.
We all know why. it’s the same with Hong Kong was exporting and importing for Red China in the 50’s and 60’s.
Some people are making lots of money
Your mom?
I wish you would have asked the GDP analysis of it being raised due to the investment of money into metal that is blown up on the battlefield and not really production of anything actually useful to the country
I loved the episode and I agree with the assessment about the wild exaggerations and cherry picking. This channel does that all the time too. If I were to look a bit at your video history it seems that the whole frontline has been collapsing for months but when you zoom out a bit you really see that it is a pretty small part of the whole theatre... So I would really appreciate if you would apply that same logic to your own channel Willy. Also, you never even questioned the interviewee about where does he get his data... as if Russian information is 100% reliable
Willy, why in the hell did you invite a reasonable person 😂 Please invite someone to double down on the Russian economy in TATERS ! Maybe Ursula ? She is going to lay down real facts 😂
Germany and Europe's economy has decline at a far greater rate than Russia, Ukraine is a failed state. It is not a demoracy, The US Dollar is under threat, debt is now unserviceable.
if you just take into account, that the russian oligarchs dont take their money to western tax havens anymore because of fear of confiscation, that are dozens of billions usd yearly, which are staying in russia and are being invested for profit...
that alone could be some 2%+ for russian gdp.
Russian universiites have won 15 out of 20 programming olymipcs in the part 20 years
One of your best interviews yet.
Why would the trade value of rouble to dollar matter to Russia when it cannot import dollars 😂. Rouble was always an interbal, domestic currency to keep prices stable.
Thanks for this, great interview with very useful information.
Russia is strong throughout history. Dont mess with Russia. Russia is blessed.