Pascal, Gordan Chang is correct. China had collapse - poverty had collapse and 800 million people had left poverty; automobiles is collapsing as the EV had destroyed the car industry; GDP had collapse from 14% growth when GDP was 1 trillion to current 5% growth of the current GDP of 18 trillion. The BRI had collapse and 140 countries are in it. USA is growing extremely well from the previous debt of 12 trillion to the current debt of 31.4 trillion - great growth. Homeless had grown extremely well in LA, Washington DC and California at a great pace. Germany's economy is great and Britain growth is great in the negative territory. USA and Western countries should be happy because China had collapse 20 years ago.
One famous adage “you can change system but you can NOT change party in China, whilst you can change party but can NOT change system in US”. This best explain how dynamic CPC is to meet Chinese insatiable demands in all directions and the secret is never hidden by CPC which is “never stop and never satisfy yourself in self-reform”. This can be further justified by the fact that CPC has approval rating over 90% amongst Chinese and still increasing by the years.
Chinese leaders are capable n qualified fully in their lead positions. The collective west led by the americanos politicians are not capable/qualified personnels !! Look at them one by one, war mongerings, selfish n greedily filling own wallets instead of taking care of own populations...
@@steveperreira5850Just consider one fact. There is bi-partisan Beltway establishment bought-off by MICC evidenced by non-stop defense budget increase whilst health/home care spend is continuously cut by years and this trending is not going to change unless American start waking up and do something about it.
The west has built China to what it is today. Why would they push for it's collapse while investing so much money in it? Don't be stupid. If the U.S. wanted to destroy China or collapse it's economy 10 years ago, they could have done it overnight and it wouldn't have any effect on them. The west was hoping China would liberalize and become a civilized country. Instead Xi turned it into North Korea...
99.999% of the people don't get China because a country of over 1B people almost 30 provinces, in a diplomatic environment of almost 200 countries is just a very very complex thing which nobody has any experience running. People who have visited China a couple of time talk expertly about it as if they know all the answers. The country is big, the challenges are also big in a way that ordinary people whose life experience is running a business of 1, 10 M or even over billion cannot comprehend. Do you think Tim Cook or Elon Musk can run China successfully ? But the fact is that China has been an enormous country with enormous challenges for many centuries and only the Chinese govt in Beijing and all the provinces know really what these problems are. And they are the only people who has any experience governing that. They are not going to appoint Jeffery Sacks and Larry Summers to tell them how to do it. Russia took their advise of shock therapy and see what happened to Russia in the 1990's. China always did it their way to marketise plus everrything else, and against all odds, against all foreign predictions of collapse, they came through so far. They must know something you and I don't.
no worries even if the Chinese economy comes to a standstill, it will still survive since the Chinese are a very resilient and pragmatic people. in the coming years it’s not bubbles that are popping but the eyeballs of its detractor popping after seeing that the Chinese simply refuses to fail and survive unless 3rd WW breakout in which the world will fall together with it.
Pascal, the naysayers have , for ages, been predicting that China is going to fail like a broken record spinning on a turntable. But you know what - none of them has proven to be right.
Hilarious nobody been saying there bout to collapse till now obviously the crinese crybabies imperialist wannabees are collapsing thanks to there foolish 1 child policy there population will halve in 30 years thankfully India will leave them well behind most factories left for Vietnam and others unemployment thru the roof millions escaping to Vietnam over the border who is this loser think he is kidding
@@brent1252 Big population is a double edged sword. You are rejoicing because you believe that India will be leaving China behind with its increasing population. Population is only one factor.
@@Time4Peace no just relieved that the genocidal crinese crybabies imperialist wannabees will soon slip back to no 3 there is nothing to worry about a weak crina
Fair and thoughtful analysis from someone with actual China experience through living in China and looking at things without a tainted lens. Thank you for your contribution towards people’s better understanding.
Not exactly…. Other analysts say otherwise. Ultimately, I hope China pulls through, but they wont if they underestimate the American terrorists. These scumbags are hell-bent and preventing china from succeeding.
@@PascalCoppens It is really funny to the extent of being ridiculous that you do not even mention the ethnic and racial coherence of the Chinese, which is in fact the most important factor for the "stability" of any system. We see the whole "west" collapsing every day because of the utter negligence and even pathological denial of this factor. Have you been warned by someone to mention racial and ethnic coherence or do you yourself think it is irrelevant?
@@marcelbork92 Perhaps our identification with Chinese identity is greater than our racial identity. Chinese children have always sung '56 ethnic groups are one family' since childhood. The education we received from a young age is unity. Eg. for the oppression and enslavement of the Han ethnic group by the Man during the Qing Dynasty, both textbooks and the people don't mentioned much. Nowadays, various ethnic groups live together, and children have been studying and growing up together since childhood. Appreciate the customs and cuisine of each ethnic. Because racial issues are very serious in the West, some Western friends will believe that there is forced labor for Xinjiang ethnic minorities in China, which is very absurd. Normal people wouldn't believe such things, but Adidas and Nike did, and they both declared a boycott of Xinjiang cotton. This brainless statement has also brought retribution, with sales in China falling by more than half. They have not yet apologized for this matter, but it can be seen that they will gradually become niche products in China.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER 🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
yeah, they keep on repeating the impending fall of China in the hope that it will happen because that's all they can do They've tried competing, they've tried sabotaging China and they failed or keep failing.
Many have forgotten (or rather not aware) that in the ancient times, China is an economic powerhouse. Even back then, China has been ruling the world’s commercial trade, until it lost its economic power (and regarded as sleeping giant). China has gained back its economic power by way of dictatorship combined with capitalism and slavery (one way or another) of its common citizens. The entire world has given China so much economic power (by taking advantage of its slave-like labour) that nowadays it’s not that easy to bring China down (just to fight the bullying of CCP). Yes, several big multinational entities have pulled out from China but they’ve been replaced by other global entities. A lot of things to discuss, could be endless discussions, but China won’t go down easily. And that is the situation thanks to all of us who patronage China’s manufacturing. In no time, China will take over the electric car maket. Every single industry will be taken over by China, because everything relies on China. I hate CCP as well, but China will remain relevant for many many years even if we start campaigning against Chinese goods now.
China has the smartest government that is thinking ahead, they are all about infrastructure and supply, it's the US that is in such massive debt that it can never be paid, the US is already bankrupt and by raising the debt ceiling they are putting the collapse off a few more years when it will be worse, then whilst it's beyond broke it's spending more on military spending when no one is threatening them, the only way out of the inevitable collapse is to start WW3 and we know they are always at war and will do it. The US military is the biggest threat to the world.
i would argue that it not because CHina has the smartest g0vt, they have human beings in g0vt, humans with a soul. U$ politicians are totally soulless, a c0rporate for profit only terr0r state that will eventually suck the lives out of everyone for the profit of 0.0001% of Amarika's feudal l0rds.
@@Andy-P where did you get that absolute nonsense? That's the most misinformed statement I've heard yet, I'm saving it to show others what western propaganda is doing to people.
@@Andy-P PS you didn't even know that Taiwan is part of China and always has been. Andy I don't mean this in a bad way but you should read news sources other than western media to get some idea of the real geopolitical situation in the world, western media is pure propaganda today, if any journalist speaks out about the truth they get arrested like Assange for example. Can I ask you if you believe Ukraine is winning against Russia ? I'm just curious
Hello Pascal, thanks for another education; I concurred with you. China is one of many East Asia Pacific countries I used to travel during my work then. My first visit to China was in the late '70s, walking across the half concrete bridge (Hong Kong side) and half wooden bridge (China side) to have a first hand feel of China and met the Chinese there for the first time, then I was a curious tourist visiting Shen Zhen the so call "sleepy" fishing village. The people there then were not "sleeping" at all, they were very curious as I was, they give you the sense of value of life, they were enterprising, they were keen learner, they were hungry for information, least of all they don't waste any opportunity to do good. China had been one of the many countries I responsible then, I have to tell them to slow down to keep in pace with rest of the East Asian countries under my purview. It is without an iota of doubt that the Chinese owned to themselves for the success they had brought to their nation, their family and themselves. Most business deal with China have benefitted the same effects. It is in the Chinese DNA to work hard, (now to work smart as well), to be responsible and bold to set goals and achieving them. These are what I had learned from them during my 35 years working with the Chinese and literally watching them grow. They have a life to live like everyone, from the riches to the world poorest countries, there are riches to be found. It is the unselfish collective work and abundance mentality that make ONE RICH and able to LIVE HAPPILY.
Just like Taiwan & Singapore. And other western countries where Chinese have contributed to growth and economic development. Countries they now call home.
As a US citizen who has never visited China, it is impossible to have a realistic understanding of Chinese cultures! Thank you so much for sharing your reflections 😔 As stated, the US is all about maintaining Hegemonic Power. Thus, their propaganda machines are in full force 24/7. MSM is followed religiously by the vast dumbed-down majority. I see no significant changes on the horizon. Truthfully, it's alarming to me.😢
@@Andy-P China make the best quality precursor drugs in the world for export to Myanmar and Mexico. Drug manufacture and consumption is illegal in China. For such an advanced surveillance state you think they could stop the manufacture and exportation. But they seem to struggle with this. $800 million shipment of cocaine was stopped in Australia from China recently. China talks big on sophisticated things but struggles with simple things.
@@seniorsergeanttomcroydon6401 I've read that even though China has the reputation of all seeing all knowing when it comes to loans everything is so opaque that one Chinese institution may no know another Chinese institution has loans outstanding - hence the huge amount of potential unknown debt in Africa. It's not planned debt trap diplomacy it's loan sharking on a international scale.
1989 Western Propaganda: Without democracy in China, No Development 2000s Western Propaganda: Without democracy, *NO SUSTAINABLE development* 2010s Western Propaganda: No country can experience indefinite economic growth, democracy is necessary to act as a safety valve when the economy slows... *BLAH.. BLAH... BLAH*
"No country can experience indefinite economic growth". If you mean high growth then that has proved correct. China is having to accept lower growth. When the debt fueled growth stops it's growth will be like Japans.
In US and the 5 EYES nations there's absolutely no growth except growth of the dictator government departments keep on growing in size that contribute nothing good back to it's people other than robbing its own people for all its worth.
The main problems facing the Anglo Saxon and EU countries concerning about China is that they cannot fathom how China has developed their economies and the whole infrastructures and social reforms at such warp speed .. they have no comprehension and answers to all these phenomenon except to create barriers and hurdles ... to envy ..contain and demonize China ...their obsession with China has come to a point that if there is an iota or indication of any unfavorable events happening in China be it politically...socially ...economically or natural disaster they will jump on the bandwagon like making a mountain out of a molehill to create chaos and disinformation . It is so ironic that the Anglo Saxon and EU countries are now in a more worse and dire situation on their social. economic and debts problems than China and yet they enthusiastically focus their malign intentions against China disregarding their own impending disaster which is already at their doorstep...
Anglos think they invented the wheel and think everyone else is too stupid the comprehend how to make their own, or that they shouldn't be allowed to because the Anglos made up IP laws to hide their ideas, and ideas they stole from others, behind to force royalty payments and general political coercion.
Penzai (pronounce bonsai in Japanese) is an ancient Chinese art traceable to the Tang Dynasty (618 to 907 AD). The Chinese word “penzai” literally means “tray planting.” It is the art of growing and depicting artistically formed trees, shrubs in miniature landscapes in small and often shallow trays. The art demands careful and precise controlling and pruning where the plant is slowly shaped to give the appearance of an older, mature tree. The ultimate goal is for the tree to finally take on a shape that resembles how the tree would look growing in nature. In order to achieve that desired effect, the bonsai master will at times allow the tree to flourish uncontrolled. At other times, he would use wires to control and shape its growth. If he exerts too much control, the tree dies. Lack of control, and the tree grows wild. It is through the act of balancing between allowing the tree to flourish and under controlled growth, he creates a master piece. The Chinese economic planners fully appreciate that laissez-faire economics theory - the dependence on the equilibrium of supply and demand to efficiently direct the production of goods and services - is a fallacy. If left alone and let the market do its own thing, the wealth gap would aggravate with no protection of the inalienable rights of the masses against the minority rich and powerful. Hence, certain key economic functions are retained in the hand of the state. The recent regulatory framework designed to rein in the unfettered power of internet giants is case in point. The result is - a more equitable and sustainable growth.
The CCP grandees are not rich and powerful? You really believe their Bullshit like an innocent child! How can Capitalism grow without a wealth gap? It can't, and Mr Brightside here, even admit it's successful rise was by adopting Capitalism! That comes with the territory, you can't have Capitalism in the office and socialism at home, unless you're free like Sweden. With a dictator, it fails. Always.
Is that why China is building up it military? Is that why its threatening Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam? Is that why China harasses US naval reconnaissance in international waters? Or why the Chinese navy harasses its neighbors?
This is by far one of the most comprehensive and easily understood analysis of perceived China potential collapse. This is a real China expert who truly understand what he is talking about as he balanced between potential risks and actions taken to managed these risks, taking into consideration various local environment and context these risks occurred in. Kudos to Mr Pascal Coppens.
Those who are familiar with Chinese history know this: the Chinese people will accept humiliation, but they will not accept defeat. Those who suppress the Chinese people will be toppled.
If you think about it, the people who are pushing for the collapse of China are cold blooded af. Why would you want to see a country who suffered so much before 1945 and after 1945 collapse? The people in China right now are blooming like a beautiful flower, these people are prospering! Look at the vibrant cities, look at the happiness of the majority of the people, look how lively the streets of any cities in China are! A collapse will destroy billions of people, why would some people want to see that. Support peace, support positivity. 🍀💕
The short answer is, most Western people don't know what China is like. I'm sure a decent amount of them think China is still a mostly agrarian country with some dusty polluted cities and maybe a portrait of Xi Jinping on every street corner. Along with that, they actually think Chinese people are miserable, starving, and yearning for "freedom". So an overthrow of the system even if "some people die" is somehow going to result in a net positive for the people living there. Not even kidding you. That is how mass manufactured consent propaganda works. It happened to Iraq and Libya and historically also to Hawaii before it got colonized.
Jealous miscreants don't want others to succeed and do better. They would rather wreck and ruin, badmouth and blackmail to satiate inadequacies and shallow self esteem.
The Imperialists would love for China to be poor. They succeeded in enslaving Africa but their dream of completely enslaving Asia was not fulfilled. They project their deep desire outwards and latch on to anything that smells like doom...
I hv either read or heard of China going to disintegrate and collapse for decades. The West, esp the Anglo-Saxon race just cannot stomach a strong China which they had had bullied, attacked and invaded since 1840, 1860, 1900 till 1945. China needs not worry about their negative comments and just have to concentrate on growth and prosperity. The West, now being led by an arrogant and hegemonic US can continue to maintain their totally unproductive military bases when their economy is fast declining and they will ultimately disappear from the world scene.
I have heard something like what you say China was or is going to collapse or fail years and years ago , and there was someone he called himself an expert on China ( Gordon Chang ) ! Since Gordon Chang.said untill now there was and is nothing happened at all to China ! In contrast China is getting better , stronger and richer from day to day ! What I see today the propaganda of the West’s meanstream medias keep doing disinformation and lying about China ! They should remind themself that the more lies and disinfomation they do that is the more they lost or destroy themself and their reputation !
The US trying hard to push every country in the world to adopt democratic system because of freedom. In actual fact, the only country that could enjoy such so-called “freedom” is US. Such freedoms include of meddling of other countries, causing regime change, assassinating leaders, plotting proxy wars, spreading fake news, spying, sanctioning and controlling of them, even on her own allies. As for Gordon Chang, he is just one of US’s little puppies barking around.
Thanks Pascal for a very good analysis of China's problems and opportunities. Many of the risks that you have listed down are very real and as you said China is tackling them. I would list one big thing that I feel is an enormous advantage that China has which most of the global north do not possess. This is the authoritarian system China has. Instead of seeing as a weakness it is in reality a strength. Governing a country as large and populous as China is not easy...you need a good government that can execute. I think in terms of execution China's system of government is superior to say the US. Many of America's problems are widely known but somehow the US is unable to resolve them. Look at India it is the largest democracy in the world that recently overtook China in terms of population size and western media tout her as the next China...in fact predicting that India would eventually surpass China economically just because she has so-called democracy and rule of law. We hear this narrative for many decades just as we hear about the impending collapse of China for many decades. But every year we are seeing India falling further and further behind....India is simply a very chaotic overpopulated country that is impossible to govern... nothing gets done... Modi is more involved in projecting India's status as a world geopolitical player and promoting his Hindu supremacy at home to win elections than tackling India's enormous problems. Overpopulation is in fact an albatross around India's neck instead of something that will turbocharge India's economic future. The future of the would is not one in the 50s and 60s where cheap labor can propel a large country into the ranks of middle income country. With AI... robotics and mechanization a country trying to become topdog will not need so many workers.....but India is producing workers out of their ears...where are all these excess workers going to find jobs in a world that is more protectionistic? Yes China has big problems but the CCP is bent of solving them. India has bigger problems that the western media is not reporting. India I think risk a revolution when the hordes of unemployed rebel.
@@akashpatel8410 , When I first started posting my views on Yahoo Forum & now on You Tube, I had crossed swords with many Indian posters who loved to brag that their country will soon overtake China (and some even bragged of overtaking the US) within a decade or two. That was some 15 years ago. I would love to ask them where is India now?
@@jmchng9662 frankly no one said that even big institutions never said that . I don't know if you are stupid or the people you are talking are stupid because 15 years ago China was not world's 2 largest economy (2007 it was 3.5)it was behind Japan at that time and India( 3.8) will takeover China and U.S around 2040 to 2050 depending on situations and currently India is 5th and will take over Germany and Japan in next 2 years I don't know how did you pullout that 15 years age someone said India will surpass u.s around this time because that time India was hopeless under Congress rule and many big scam were happening
You've got a great heart for being humanity Outlook it's not open enough yet in the UNITED STATES as for China built a wall to protect people other created weapons of destruction this country needs to stop being arrogant and making a hero of a president that shutdown the government and took the security of nation away is treasonous against everyone in America
According to the latest predictions from the world renown 'FAKE' China experts Peter Zeihan, China as a nation with 1.4 billion people will be extinct within the decade.
I did not mention Peter Zeihan, but he is in the same categorie. I read his book, and cannot agree on what he wrote on China. Just had no time to zoom into it.
@@PascalCoppensHe has some valid points about China but his narrative is that oh because China has such and such a problem it would fail, although US has such and such a problem we will find solutions. It’s like only US government will find solutions and chinese government would sit on the problem and watch it fail.
Peter Zeihan may still be right. I’m sure someone in Washington has been planning for that, but if that happens I wonder if the rest of the human species will also disappear along with them.
@@MrTrinitius Yup there is always the very remote possibility of it happening like the earth exploding tomorrow or a huge meteorite hitting earth causing a huge extinction event or the sun’s fusion process stop.
The strange thing is, with some of the countries in the west having growths that are near zero, or worse, negative, no one is saying their economies are collapsing. It always sounds to me like only China's economy can fall. But as we can mitness, the reality is clearly the opposite.
You mean like many finance experts talking about countries like Venezuela or Turkey going to fail. You just need to broaden your knowledge to see there are more countries out there that just talk about China in the US. The quest for wisdom is worthy. I wish you well on your journey.
Because the conclusion was already decided before collecting evidence, hence there is no need of cross-checking the evidence, or horizontal comparison.
He will have to scrub off the word CHINA in his books and replace it to "UNCLE SIMON ACHE" to cash in his next business fortune. He's looking for his box of erasers from Ali Express already.
If we use Purchasing Power Parity, the US has already been behind China for many years. Germany is in recession. Canada's GDP is zero in 2023. So, I highly doubt China's economy will collapse any time soon, especially since China has a 5,000-year long history.
The trade ballance is moore important then hystory existance. If i have no money, I will not bay from CHINA,. That means I will save and they will have less. True?
From the Ming Dynasty in China in the 14th century, the Angsa missionaries in the West brought many science and technology books from China. The West learned a lot of Chinese science and technology and copied them. At that time, many names still used Chinese names. But in the Qing Dynasty of China in the 17th century, the government suppressed technology and made China fall behind, causing the West to overtake China. Now, China is returning to the era of crazy technological development. In the future, the West will never be able to surpass China, and then steal China's technology behind.
Good analysis and fair comments. China as a nation, has been around for 4000+ years. There's very little that they haven't experienced or have not overcome to get to where they are today. Today's problems/issues are just variations of the good, the bad and the ugly of the past which they will overcome all the same. I bet that China will still be there when the new kids on the block like the juvenile terrorist rogue state Banana Republic of America (BRA), the EU and other such groupings have long broken up and disappeared into the history of time. Relax.
@@acvarthered lol! Yeah, keep on lying to yourself. They are a civilization/state. Keep on splitting hairs to make yourself feel good as you watch your country self-destruct..
@@kanadashyuugo873no, Egypt had a very early start yet not much else for the past 2000 years. China has up and downs but yet till 1800 it’s been a major power from the very beginning
A big thank you for your comprensive analysis of China pass, present, future and possible uncertainty of certain issues. As for Gordon Chang , he is definitely history and a waste of time even to mention him. Thank you again Pascal.
Despite being Vietnam’s largest export market, the United States is currently ranked as a third-tier diplomatic partner for Hanoi. (U Stay Away) is acting like a beggar asking Vietnam to upgrade to 2nd tier. Vietnam 's high ranking officials just visited Cuba recently
okay, now you just destroyed all credibility, North Korea is currently having mass starvation. You call "surviving" being in a totalitarian police state you aren't allowed to leave? right comrade.
@@Ottotherepoman1 Yes, I agree that North Korea is the worst nation on the planet. However, many told us of the imminent demise of N.K. and it hasn't happened yet.
Welcome to the world of differences between China and the U.S.A.: When the U.S. singled out China as an outcast to its space program, particularly its International Space Station, all Chinese took it in stride and worked hard to catch up. And when China launched its Tiangong space station ten years later in 2021, the world signed up to carry out scientific experiments in space aboard the Tiangong, including the pathetic United States of America. When China planned to send its personnel to the moon in 2030, the U.S. vowed to conquer the moon on more time, in 2025, and the U.S. Space Force said it can wage a space war at any given time. The world is waiting to see who the winner will be. When the U.S. used Ukraine to destroy the Russian economy, lesser countries around the globe fear for themselves. But when Russia fought back and burned the collective West with high inflation, the world cheered up. When the U.S. was busy gathering allies and friends to contain the rise of the Chinese nation, the world applauded when China bridged the historical divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran and brought them together to serve the interests of all Muslims in the region, no matter what their religious tendencies might be. When the U.S. printed money without constraint just to appease its own population so they forget about the economic failure on American soil, China stabilized the economy of the world by maintaining a steady supply of much needed commodities while inflation flared up in the Western world until today. When the U.S. acted miserably in begging to have the lines of communications with China as if China is the bully who ignores "the leader of the world," people in all political circles secretly admired when China openly told the U.S. in their face to stop the theatrics and to truly show their sincerity for talks before any meetings can take place between the two sides. When the U.S. publicly displayed its fury at the Chinese Yuan replacing their petrodollar, the whole world enthusiastically embraced the de-dollarization movement that has been spreading like wildfire across the globe as a self-defense mechanism to lessen the possibility of American sanctions or to avoid being a victim of American sanctions for holding too much of the greenback in their foreign exchange reserves. When the U.S. tried its best to decouple from the Chinese economy, Elon Musk of Tesla voted to set up another giga-factory for EV batteries and to develop autonomous driving technology in China using Chinese artificial intelligence and Chinese global positioning devices, Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase held a tech exchange investment in Shanghai to further embrace the Chinese economy and declared the opposition of American financial behemoths against decoupling from China, and Nvidia's Jensen Huang will visit other tech companies in China and declared his opposition to American sanctions against China that badly hurt the profitability of American tech companies while Apple's Tim Cook quit India and returned to China for iPhone productions. Now you know who is out to destroy it to forever maintain its supremacy over all others and who possesses the desire to share a common future with other nations around the globe.
You are absolutely right about next year the two elections will rise the stake like crazy. The worst case is some crazy hawk in the US and the DDP winning both elections, and like idiots start something so stupid they never anticipate would drag everyone in down a fiery hole. The best case is for KMT to win the election and people like ex-President Ma coming in and lowering the temperature on both sides. That said, what would happen if the US sees red and resorts to its old tricks of destabilizing a democratic elected government through coup or whatever. And if so what would be the PRC response? Yeah 2024, not going to be an easy year.
We need to understand that China faces many challenges, just like every other major economy in the world. Are China's challenges more dire than, say, in the United States or United Kingdom or Germany? Hell, no! The USA faces huge problems. A huge $32 trillion national debt. A potential banking crisis. A potential real estate crisis. A demographic problem. Crumbling infrastructure. And so on. Over the past 50 years, China has demonstrated a far greater capacity for solving its problems than America has. I'll place my bet on China any day of the week.
As long as the communist holds power, China won't implode nor collapse. If China goes democracy and liberalization, China will collapse. But China is falling into the Middle Income Trap which is different from collapse.
@ohcho-fg4co That is assuming the CPC doesn't have an answer for the middle income trap. China has found solutions for everything so far. Just because one country has failed doesn't mean that others will. Don't project your failures on other countries. The quality of life in China has exceeded that of West. The West is dying.
All of this is what scares the American Capitalists!!! Instead of trying to coerce other countries to submit to The US, the American Capitalists refuse to change and adapt in a good way!!!
The so called 100 trillion year? You must be silly to think about 100 trillion years later?? We all think only usa education system teach this type of thinking and mindset to those study in usa?
There is no proof that the universe will collapse and human beings will have the technologies to travel between planets. The Chinese system is a tried and proven systems that had stand the test of time up to now. There is something for the world can learn from China.
the short answer is yes. even your Timex watch could fail. however, China is the only civilization capable of reinventing itself repeatedly throughout its long history that no other empire could.
The intent is to flood the consciousness of people so they can pounce and take advantage of the slightest problem. They know it's ridiculous but the intent is to put people in a state where their minds are ready to be told to attack China.
Thanx for the communist Propaganda! Attack China? Really? What about the fact that China is threatening all their neighbors and interfering with shipping in international waters? What about the spying China does on the west? You're so full of crap!
If you read Global Times then the attack on America is daily. Name me a popular main stream media in the west that attacks China on such a regular basis. If they did they wouldn't be main stream for one because people are just not interested. China stores make up a very small number of articles in main stream media.
China is his transition period, it is hard to say whether it will be successful or how long this period will be. But i don't think there will be a sudden collapse.
Pascal, i think you forgot that the west is sanctioning China companies too and that is also reducing the GDP growth, but then China is still growing even with those new sanctions.
They sanction Chinese companies because the CCP uses those companies to conduct surveillance on foreign citizens, collect information on foreign government officials, and spy on the west!
The growth is massive debt because the CCP cannot fail, they will lose their objectives and goals of superseding the dollar and US economy. The investment money is leaving China as of the last several months / weeks. The effects are going to be really felt come in the next fiscal year.
In 5,000 years of history, china has probably collapsed 50 times with the last collapse in 1949 when the kuomingtang government under generalissimo chiang kai shek hightailed it to taiwan (where he proclaimed it as republic of china 🇹🇼) after losing the chinese civil war. 😂
lots of good information here. I've lived in China almost 20 years and can vouch for the fact that there are challenges but the Central goverment tackles them well - I thnk Gordon Chang gets it so wrong because he looks at China with a Western lens rather than looking at China through his half Chinese eyes. There are huge psychological differences and you nailed one of them China's national debt is a lot less of a problem than USA's because it's internal, the debt is secured by the fact that China saves more than the GDP of most countries every year
when will they claim US and British and NATO is going to collapse??? US has a One party system. they call Chinese government The communist party but never called US government as the capitalist Democrat or Republican party?? 😅😂 the West do the same thing as China when there's a housing market bubble in the US but the west never point out this. When US population reaches 1.4 billions like China is let's see how US deal with that to control a pandemic or feed that population 😅😂
Hi Pascal, thank you very much for another video by you!! 👍👏❤ I should like to share - freedom in China means it has one of the best & affordable education, medical, transport, amenities and social security systems in the world. Freedom in China also means virtually no homeless, drug abuses, porn, public shootings, very minimal crimes and obesity! A survey done recently showed 91% of the citizens of China are happy with their life, and 95% approved the Chinese Government ways of running the country! China is moving forward - continuously improving, self correcting and evolving quickly to the passage of time - all things in China is getting better & better each passing year! 😊
About the Chinese debt, I think I need to clarify something very important. We always talk about the debt, instead of asking where the money has gone. Chinese government uses the money to promote the infrastructures. There is a movement that our Chinese government improve the infrastructures even in the rural villages. Look at these rural villages, they have electricity, road of concrete, internet, clean water and so on. Of course, these projects are always not profitable. As a communist belief, the government is for the people, and everyone must share a modern society life. CCP also spends a lot of money to launch a project to move the rural villages inside the mountains to towns and cities. This project helps these people participate the development of whole society. As a comparison, how does the government of USA spend their money? The military and the war!
If China is to collapse, then US has nothing to worry about. So if you believe what the US says all day, then you wouldn't even have such questions. As I see the only risk is Taiwan. Simply it's a button too easy to be pushed by the US out of panic.
Thank you Pascal, for more of your well researched storying of China's progress and what the PRC/CPC is having to deal with as a consequence of such relatively rapid growth. The pace of China's growth is such that the response to by other nation states varies between admiration among much of the Global South, to envy among some of the slower growing developing countries, to outright fear on the part of major state powers who believe their share of global wealth and influence is being reduced as China's increases. Hence an increase in anti China rhetoric throughout much of the collective West.
As a country develops the rate of growth becomes less. China is no exception. Debt fueled growth will catch up with it. For the CCP GDP is a political target. It will be achieved what ever the cost. (debt)
Anti-China rhetoric is nothing to do with China's growth. More to do with her Foreign Policy. China economic model needs to change. Cannot have high growth forever even if that growth is fuelled by debt. Brazil had rapid growth along with other countries and they had to change their economic model. So did the existing western economies. Hence their low growth now.
@@Andy-P China has the distinct advantage of knowing how to subordinate and manage capital and capitalists in order to meet it's socialist objectives. This is a lot more sophisticated and sustainable than leaving it almost entirely to the market place and its capitalist owners.
How do we define collapse? Do we mean the fall of the CCP? Do we mean the rise of poverty and loss of the middle class in China? Do we mean a change of people at the top of the CCP? Do we mean the end of major banks in China? Without definition, we have no idea what is meant by "collapse".
I share your optimism too. China is a problem solver, so they will somehow solve the chip problem, as they have figured out the nuclear energy, space endeavour, AI and quantum computing. Yes, the Taiwan issue will be the red line and US knows that's China's Archilles' heel. China can deal with the red line without attacking militarily but containing economically. But even without the Taiwan issue, the West will conspire as a bloc to bring China down. Fortunately for China, it has already reached a point where it could survive even without the West, leveraging on its strong relations with Central Asia, Middle East, Africa and S America. China's strategy of non-interference and infrastructure building with emerging nations is more appealing to the third world than US's strategy of domination. A point will be reached when India too will be a part of that eco-system in which China is and the West will feel left out.
From the Ming Dynasty in China in the 14th century, the Angsa missionaries in the West brought many science and technology books from China. The West learned a lot of Chinese science and technology and copied them. At that time, many names still used Chinese names. But in the Qing Dynasty of China in the 17th century, the government suppressed technology and made China fall behind, causing the West to overtake China. Now, China is returning to the era of crazy technological development. In the future, the West will never be able to surpass China, and then steal China's technology behind.
Many comments pit India vs China. West is trying hard to divide and conquer. As India grows, it's inevitable to look for huge market, and China is just over the border.
Absolutely, China failed. China's average personal income level have not exceed Luxembourg. GDP have not over pass USA. Air quality have not pass Sweden. Education have not pass Japan. Health care have not pass Belgium.
So there is a lot of room to improve and evolve further still. If China's GDP per capita, healthcare, education and air quality would be as good as Sweden, China would be 4 times more powerful than United States is today. Maybe that is a good thing for us China is not there yet?
All those pessimistic predictors will fail. The real problem is that they don't know why they are going to fail. Because they are using a wrong accounting system to calculate China. Here, I used "accounting" to replace Karl Marx's word "value" but they are pretty much the same thing. The western value system is based on the profitability of individual corporations, therefore, it is is pretty much static and individual based.
The high-speed rail system seems to be a good example. The system is not profitable, yet the spill-over effect on the economy is huge and far more important.
@@pycpenn The HSR network is the tool being used to advance the Chinese economy. It may be not be self sustaining but it is part of the overall economy which is prospering. The Chinese government provides the infrastructure that enables the success of China.
On debt: I'd like to point out that when you go into debt for infrastructure building, there is usally a pay-back over time. When you go into debt to finance wars, the asset disappears and all you're left with is the debt along with a lot of destruction, displacement, death and misery. I disagree on the subject of Taiwan if the KMT wins a majority. Past patterns show that if this happens, the other side will double down and there'll be a color revolution and then a repeat of Ukraine. I hope China has a plan to nip this in the bud.
True on debt. Although China is not always been investing wisely in infrastructure either - but much less in military. As for KMT, I appreciate your viewpoint.
Thank you for the balanced and extremely rare perspective on China. On the point about China’s perceived mishandling with the widespread lockdowns at the tail-end of the COVID pandemic, I tend to think it was a calculated move with several objectives, not least of which was to send a wake-up call to the world on how important it is to the global supply chain and a precursor of what the effects of war with China will be. Even if war is inevitable, at least the country had a dry run already.
Agreed. China is important in the supply chain. The west has taken note hence de-risking. As you say at least everyone has had a dry run over the future war for Taiwan... maybe world war.
@@Andy-P the real one would be a lot worse. The West is unprepared and deluding themselves if they think they can genuinely replace the productive output from China. Shelves running empty will be the least of their problems if war breaks out. Maybe that’s what the elites want anyway. So all good.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER 🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
miscalculated handling, using it to create a bigger police state, testing the grounds of surveillance, propaganda, mass lockdowns and internet control. yet slowly but surely people realize they cannot live in this police state. white paper movement showed that CCP can cave so now they are increasing even more policing with the "rural police" on top of now the city police. But never mistreat the peasants, they will bring down the state.
To the Chinese government, every life (young or old) is valuable, priceless and every care must be taken to limit deaths. You can compare to the numbers of COVID deaths (less than 10K) vs US with more than 1 Million deaths.
👍Thank you for you expertise opinion. 😊China’s current uptrend will turn down, but only after a longer period (200-300 years, historically in 5,000 years of civilisation) of running up and peaking.
I came from China and have lived in the States for last 40 years.I totally understand what you've managed to convey and overall am in agreement. Chinese people are very resilient, in addition, the power of long history and culture should never be underestimated. If you understand Confucius, you'll understand why the system can not fall easily and why the meaning of family is completely different from that in the west in general. A big country is built on many communities and communities are built on many families within the communities. In China that structure is very solid and well organized, which is one of the reasons there are simply very few homeless persons on the street. Chinese parents always emphasize their children's education, no exceptions.
Thanks Pascal for the great insights. Somehow, the west is always very "concern" for the welfare of China and it's people. ( i'm overwhelmed by how much love they have for others ) China NEVER export their idealogy to others. They have NEVER preached communism to the west. On the other hand. The west is always giving sanctimonious preaching to other as though their western style democracy is the paragon of virtue and success. ( which is far from the truth because their country is failing ) While the Chinese government is doing their best to improve the lives of it's people. ( they have lifted 800 million people out of poverty ) The west is always creating wars and interferring in other peoples business except helping their own people. ( one in six people in America needs food handout ) When things fail in their own country they blames China for it. They nitpick on every issue in China while their very own gets sweep under the carpet. The west should stop living in self denial and open their eyes to what is happening in the bigger world.
Mr. Pascal, China needs a great leap forward moment. Most advanced breakthrough in technology. Something like making EUV lithography machines on their own.
The EUV lithography machine issue will be solved soon. Huawei has already developed a EUV source suitable for fabricating feature sizes of 5nM or less.
Before China rising , I have never heard of so many discussions about China in west media . So the west is trying to figure out what to do with rising China, but not knowing how to deal with it. So maybe predicting the collapse of China will make the problem going away ?
Not fast enough...is a relative concept. If I compare with the speed of change in Europe, China is plenty fast enough. But I would hope the speed can increase still to keep the economy fueled.
For a 1.4 billion ppl country, financial/economic stability is always more important than any speedy sudden moves...CN gov is so much better than the Western gov, and of course all China experts/analysts/etc--they only know their own perspective from a Western angle, and often try to impose their wants consciously or unconsciously.
the thing about reports on china is that still you'd quote claims made by the ccp (like gdp) as absolute unadulterated fact which we know must be taken with a sack of salt
Enlightening insight of China in every aspects supported with simple but indepth analyses. Your views on China always give me a far deeper understanding of the country which is completely opposite of what we're hearing from the West. Great job👍
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER 🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
Productivity based on physical goods produced or revenue derived are two different things. On a PPP basis, China is more productive than most of the western. And look at actual employment, China has the highest employment in the world against population. Although retirement is early for the Chinese but the elderlies continue to take up part time jobs such as sweeping the parks or engaged in small enterprises such as services in eateries which are often not taxed and not captured under GDP in any measure. Also the virtual GDP measured in the US by the stock market activities on Wall Street, whether it is real economic activity or just manipulating the stock price by buying your own share, China does not have very much of this. The Chinese invest more in productivity than stocks.
Unbiased analysis is what we usually lack. You did great being Unbiased! Lesson: we need each others. Any domination plans will simply create unbalance, then will lead to inevitable and continuous crisis in our societies. Greed need to go!
@douglassorge6235 Really? When things get tough, you sure remember you do have a neighbor (could someone from anywhere in the world!). You probably will remember our exchange today. Good luck in your endeavors!
Sorry to look naive, but i have a question about Gordon Chang. Why does he have so much hatred towards China and by extension to Chinese people? Though why he has so much hatred towards China? Does he need money? Some issue with his ego maybe??
China has enough water. It just have to avoid draining into the sea, remove all industrial pollution and use the water carefully. The South-North Water diversion is a massive project that is still on-going but is very successful. Too much rainwater is still being drained into the sea. Plus Tibet will be diverting the water to Xinjiang and reducing the flow into India and Bangladesh.
I'm about to start watching but I will make my comments early nevertheless. Asking whether China can fail is as silly as asking whether Singapore can be ruled by non-PAP government. 😂. I so hope Mr Coppen can make similar analysis to Singapore and its PAP ruler 😊.
@@PascalCoppens somewhat oot here. I see that you have a Dutch rather than French surname. I’m somewhat curious if your parents / grandparents are of Dutch-Indonesian origin..?
Great video. Sadly most China bashers in the western media are paid specifically to spread extremely selective reporting. The minimum requirement for a Chinese expert is to be able to speak and read Chinese fluently, and that outrightly disqualified the majority of western commentators on China as most of their analysis are only scratching the surface. And then the next requirement is to have local expertise, connections to locals, and having guanxi with huge layers of different folks at different social classes and sectors. Modeling the chinese economy is impossible using the western models as none of the advanced economies have absolute control over the financial sectors and land supply. All the data need to be backed up from anecdotes on the ground experience, and most western commentators don't seem to have such experience except a few living inside China.
Actually, I believe US' debt in total is close to 760% of the GDP, 2-3 times the total debt of China. Not consuming everything immediately is "delayed gratification", isn't that a necessary attribute to be long term successful? Besides, investment also contributes to GDP growth, where Chinese investment (delayed gratification?) is on average higher than the rest of the word, but it is seen as bad because the claim is that it is non sustainable...... with no valid reason as to why higher investment is not sustainable. The same argument could easily be rephrased as to over-consumption being unsustainable.... But I am not sure why over-consumption gets a free pass compared to 'over'-investment, when looking at GDP growth....
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html Higher investment can be sustained as long as export growth, consumption growth and productivity growth keeps up. Ideally all three.
According to Trading Economics, China's public debt-to-GDP ratio is 76.9 percent, while for USA it's 129 percent. (It's 113 percent for Canada, 101 percent for UK, 112 percent for France, 66.3 percent for Germany, 145 percent for Italy, and 264 percent for Japan.) All things considered, China isn't doing badly at all. China's private debt, on the other hand, may be quite large (185 percent of GDP) but again, according to Trading Economics, the G7 countries don't look any better (216 percent for USA, 271 percent for Canada, 194 percent for UK, 284 percent for France, 182 percent for Germany, 166 percent for Italy, and 246 percent for Japan).
Pascal, Gordan Chang is correct. China had collapse - poverty had collapse and 800 million people had left poverty; automobiles is collapsing as the EV had destroyed the car industry; GDP had collapse from 14% growth when GDP was 1 trillion to current 5% growth of the current GDP of 18 trillion. The BRI had collapse and 140 countries are in it. USA is growing extremely well from the previous debt of 12 trillion to the current debt of 31.4 trillion - great growth. Homeless had grown extremely well in LA, Washington DC and California at a great pace. Germany's economy is great and Britain growth is great in the negative territory. USA and Western countries should be happy because China had collapse 20 years ago.
LOL but true.
Nice.
Funny!
These are unbelievably comments made by genius!👍👍👍👍
Almost nothing to add.
One famous adage “you can change system but you can NOT change party in China, whilst you can change party but can NOT change system in US”. This best explain how dynamic CPC is to meet Chinese insatiable demands in all directions and the secret is never hidden by CPC which is “never stop and never satisfy yourself in self-reform”. This can be further justified by the fact that CPC has approval rating over 90% amongst Chinese and still increasing by the years.
totally, forget ideology, look at the results, who cares if the ruler is a dictat0r.
Chinese leaders are capable n qualified fully in their lead positions. The collective west led by the americanos politicians are not capable/qualified personnels !! Look at them one by one, war mongerings, selfish n greedily filling own wallets instead of taking care of own populations...
You are free to believe whatever you want to believe, however delusional
@@user-vc5qk9tg7u : delusional… i’m probably smarter than you so why don’t you let me be your dictator?
@@steveperreira5850Just consider one fact. There is bi-partisan Beltway establishment bought-off by MICC evidenced by non-stop defense budget increase whilst health/home care spend is continuously cut by years and this trending is not going to change unless American start waking up and do something about it.
Not a fan of Gordon Chang but people like him are playing the west for fools telling them what they want to hear for $$$
Gordon actually was sent out to the west by CCP lont time ago to help to fool the west.
Lucrative business indeed.
@@KK-ij4mz you get 50 cents wumao.
@@KK-ij4mz Actually that might be true.......
@@Phidiasan He's playing Gordon Chang and people are already falling for it. LOL
China is a catalyst for global trade economic cooperation friendship. China is a blessing to the world. Well done 👍❤️🇨🇳
The west has been pushing this collapse for decades.
With ton of money.
with that username, nobody should take you seriously
@@sayaandyangsaya2756 Some!
The west has built China to what it is today. Why would they push for it's collapse while investing so much money in it? Don't be stupid. If the U.S. wanted to destroy China or collapse it's economy 10 years ago, they could have done it overnight and it wouldn't have any effect on them. The west was hoping China would liberalize and become a civilized country. Instead Xi turned it into North Korea...
Except that is not true, look at the evidence. The West has acted in good faith, while China’s loyalty is not serious
99.999% of the people don't get China because a country of over 1B people almost 30 provinces, in a diplomatic environment of almost 200 countries is just a very very complex thing which nobody has any experience running. People who have visited China a couple of time talk expertly about it as if they know all the answers. The country is big, the challenges are also big in a way that ordinary people whose life experience is running a business of 1, 10 M or even over billion cannot comprehend. Do you think Tim Cook or Elon Musk can run China successfully ? But the fact is that China has been an enormous country with enormous challenges for many centuries and only the Chinese govt in Beijing and all the provinces know really what these problems are. And they are the only people who has any experience governing that. They are not going to appoint Jeffery Sacks and Larry Summers to tell them how to do it. Russia took their advise of shock therapy and see what happened to Russia in the 1990's. China always did it their way to marketise plus everrything else, and against all odds, against all foreign predictions of collapse, they came through so far. They must know something you and I don't.
yet they still want taiwan
It's family reunion.
Bad news for you?
compare it with India the country with the biggest population and a democracy , can we even fathom the chasm between these 2 countries?
@@siphomabena9139 Please help yourself and read up on
some history on China and Taiwan.
no worries even if the Chinese economy comes to a standstill, it will still survive since the Chinese are a very resilient and pragmatic people. in the coming years it’s not bubbles that are popping but the eyeballs of its detractor popping after seeing that the Chinese simply refuses to fail and survive unless 3rd WW breakout in which the world will fall together with it.
Pascal, the naysayers have , for ages, been predicting that China is going to fail like a broken record spinning on a turntable. But you know what - none of them has proven to be right.
indeed
Hilarious nobody been saying there bout to collapse till now obviously the crinese crybabies imperialist wannabees are collapsing thanks to there foolish 1 child policy there population will halve in 30 years thankfully India will leave them well behind most factories left for Vietnam and others unemployment thru the roof millions escaping to Vietnam over the border who is this loser think he is kidding
@@brent1252 Big population is a double edged sword.
You are rejoicing because you believe that India will be leaving China behind with its increasing population. Population is only one factor.
Did you really listen to the whole broadcast?
@@Time4Peace no just relieved that the genocidal crinese crybabies imperialist wannabees will soon slip back to no 3 there is nothing to worry about a weak crina
Fair and thoughtful analysis from someone with actual China experience through living in China and looking at things without a tainted lens. Thank you for your contribution towards people’s better understanding.
My pleasure. Thanks!
Not exactly…. Other analysts say otherwise. Ultimately, I hope China pulls through, but they wont if they underestimate the American terrorists. These scumbags are hell-bent and preventing china from succeeding.
@@PascalCoppens It is really funny to the extent of being ridiculous that you do not even mention the ethnic and racial coherence of the Chinese, which is in fact the most important factor for the "stability" of any system. We see the whole "west" collapsing every day because of the utter negligence and even pathological denial of this factor. Have you been warned by someone to mention racial and ethnic coherence or do you yourself think it is irrelevant?
@@marcelbork92 Perhaps our identification with Chinese identity is greater than our racial identity. Chinese children have always sung '56 ethnic groups are one family' since childhood. The education we received from a young age is unity. Eg. for the oppression and enslavement of the Han ethnic group by the Man during the Qing Dynasty, both textbooks and the people don't mentioned much. Nowadays, various ethnic groups live together, and children have been studying and growing up together since childhood. Appreciate the customs and cuisine of each ethnic. Because racial issues are very serious in the West, some Western friends will believe that there is forced labor for Xinjiang ethnic minorities in China, which is very absurd. Normal people wouldn't believe such things, but Adidas and Nike did, and they both declared a boycott of Xinjiang cotton. This brainless statement has also brought retribution, with sales in China falling by more than half. They have not yet apologized for this matter, but it can be seen that they will gradually become niche products in China.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER 🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
Why predicting a prosperous country to fail. A wishful thinking out of evil psyche. 😵💫
yeah, they keep on repeating the impending fall of China in the hope that it will happen because that's all they can do They've tried competing, they've tried sabotaging China and they failed or keep failing.
well said!
Reading here commentators wishing America will fail
@@Andy-Pwhich country caused mayhem and destruction and life loss ?
@@ahliong Russia?
Many have forgotten (or rather not aware) that in the ancient times, China is an economic powerhouse. Even back then, China has been ruling the world’s commercial trade, until it lost its economic power (and regarded as sleeping giant). China has gained back its economic power by way of dictatorship combined with capitalism and slavery (one way or another) of its common citizens. The entire world has given China so much economic power (by taking advantage of its slave-like labour) that nowadays it’s not that easy to bring China down (just to fight the bullying of CCP). Yes, several big multinational entities have pulled out from China but they’ve been replaced by other global entities. A lot of things to discuss, could be endless discussions, but China won’t go down easily. And that is the situation thanks to all of us who patronage China’s manufacturing. In no time, China will take over the electric car maket. Every single industry will be taken over by China, because everything relies on China. I hate CCP as well, but China will remain relevant for many many years even if we start campaigning against Chinese goods now.
China has the smartest government that is thinking ahead, they are all about infrastructure and supply, it's the US that is in such massive debt that it can never be paid, the US is already bankrupt and by raising the debt ceiling they are putting the collapse off a few more years when it will be worse, then whilst it's beyond broke it's spending more on military spending when no one is threatening them, the only way out of the inevitable collapse is to start WW3 and we know they are always at war and will do it. The US military is the biggest threat to the world.
Does not bode well for Taiwan if US cannot solve its debt issue
i would argue that it not because CHina has the smartest g0vt, they have human beings in g0vt, humans with a soul.
U$ politicians are totally soulless, a c0rporate for profit only terr0r state that will eventually suck the lives out of everyone for the profit of 0.0001% of Amarika's feudal l0rds.
China is in more debt to GDP than America. US military doesn't threaten western nations. It does threaten China and its plans to take Taiwan.
@@Andy-P where did you get that absolute nonsense? That's the most misinformed statement I've heard yet, I'm saving it to show others what western propaganda is doing to people.
@@Andy-P PS you didn't even know that Taiwan is part of China and always has been. Andy I don't mean this in a bad way but you should read news sources other than western media to get some idea of the real geopolitical situation in the world, western media is pure propaganda today, if any journalist speaks out about the truth they get arrested like Assange for example.
Can I ask you if you believe Ukraine is winning against Russia ? I'm just curious
Hello Pascal, thanks for another education; I concurred with you. China is one of many East Asia Pacific countries I used to travel during my work then. My first visit to China was in the late '70s, walking across the half concrete bridge (Hong Kong side) and half wooden bridge (China side) to have a first hand feel of China and met the Chinese there for the first time, then I was a curious tourist visiting Shen Zhen the so call "sleepy" fishing village. The people there then were not "sleeping" at all, they were very curious as I was, they give you the sense of value of life, they were enterprising, they were keen learner, they were hungry for information, least of all they don't waste any opportunity to do good. China had been one of the many countries I responsible then, I have to tell them to slow down to keep in pace with rest of the East Asian countries under my purview. It is without an iota of doubt that the Chinese owned to themselves for the success they had brought to their nation, their family and themselves. Most business deal with China have benefitted the same effects. It is in the Chinese DNA to work hard, (now to work smart as well), to be responsible and bold to set goals and achieving them. These are what I had learned from them during my 35 years working with the Chinese and literally watching them grow. They have a life to live like everyone, from the riches to the world poorest countries, there are riches to be found. It is the unselfish collective work and abundance mentality that make ONE RICH and able to LIVE HAPPILY.
All of that development was due to INVESTMENT by the west.
Just like Taiwan & Singapore. And other western countries where Chinese have contributed to growth and economic development. Countries they now call home.
As a US citizen who has never visited China, it is impossible to have a realistic understanding of Chinese cultures! Thank you so much for sharing your reflections 😔 As stated, the US is all about maintaining Hegemonic Power. Thus, their propaganda machines are in full force 24/7. MSM is followed religiously by the vast dumbed-down majority. I see no significant changes on the horizon. Truthfully, it's alarming to me.😢
@@Andy-P China make the best quality precursor drugs in the world for export to Myanmar and Mexico. Drug manufacture and consumption is illegal in China. For such an advanced surveillance state you think they could stop the manufacture and exportation. But they seem to struggle with this. $800 million shipment of cocaine was stopped in Australia from China recently. China talks big on sophisticated things but struggles with simple things.
@@seniorsergeanttomcroydon6401 I've read that even though China has the reputation of all seeing all knowing when it comes to loans everything is so opaque that one Chinese institution may no know another Chinese institution has loans outstanding - hence the huge amount of potential unknown debt in Africa. It's not planned debt trap diplomacy it's loan sharking on a international scale.
1989 Western Propaganda: Without democracy in China, No Development
2000s Western Propaganda: Without democracy, *NO SUSTAINABLE development*
2010s Western Propaganda: No country can experience indefinite economic growth, democracy is necessary to act as a safety valve when the economy slows... *BLAH.. BLAH... BLAH*
"No country can experience indefinite economic growth". If you mean high growth then that has proved correct. China is having to accept lower growth. When the debt fueled growth stops it's growth will be like Japans.
In US and the 5 EYES nations there's absolutely no growth except growth of the dictator government departments keep on growing in size that contribute nothing good back to it's people other than robbing its own people for all its worth.
2020s- Overcapacity. Lol
China seems like a country that operates using common sense and practical approaches
The main problems facing the Anglo Saxon and EU countries concerning about China is that they cannot fathom how China has developed their economies and the whole infrastructures and social reforms at such warp speed .. they have no comprehension and answers to all these phenomenon except to create barriers and hurdles ... to envy ..contain and demonize China ...their obsession with China has come to a point that if there is an iota or indication of any unfavorable events happening in China be it politically...socially ...economically or natural disaster they will jump on the bandwagon like making a mountain out of a molehill to create chaos and disinformation . It is so ironic that the Anglo Saxon and EU countries are now in a more worse and dire situation on their social. economic and debts problems than China and yet they enthusiastically focus their malign intentions against China disregarding their own impending disaster which is already at their doorstep...
If only we would be more aware in EU of our own dire situation...sadly not.
China is the most successful country that practices communism. That worries US.
US is a dictator who can't accept a different system.
@@PascalCoppens 您有一个描述轻描淡写的带过----中国共产党是一个非常具有自我革新能力的政党，他知错就改，勇于担当，对中国人民来说，共产党更像是一个无微不至的大家长😀。中国出现崩溃的唯一前提是共产党失去了他的执政地位，陷入内部杂乱无章的争斗消耗
Anglos think they invented the wheel and think everyone else is too stupid the comprehend how to make their own, or that they shouldn't be allowed to because the Anglos made up IP laws to hide their ideas, and ideas they stole from others, behind to force royalty payments and general political coercion.
@@atix50 您认知上有错误，中国的出口只占gdp的17%，主力是庞大的人口所带来的内需市场。今年内需不足是有问题的，疫情三年带来的影响导致民间投资消费不足
Penzai (pronounce bonsai in Japanese) is an ancient Chinese art traceable to the Tang Dynasty (618 to 907 AD). The Chinese word “penzai” literally means “tray planting.”
It is the art of growing and depicting artistically formed trees, shrubs in miniature landscapes in small and often shallow trays. The art demands careful and precise controlling and pruning where the plant is slowly shaped to give the appearance of an older, mature tree. The ultimate goal is for the tree to finally take on a shape that resembles how the tree would look growing in nature.
In order to achieve that desired effect, the bonsai master will at times allow the tree to flourish uncontrolled. At other times, he would use wires to control and shape its growth. If he exerts too much control, the tree dies. Lack of control, and the tree grows wild. It is through the act of balancing between allowing the tree to flourish and under controlled growth, he creates a master piece.
The Chinese economic planners fully appreciate that laissez-faire economics theory - the dependence on the equilibrium of supply and demand to efficiently direct the production of goods and services - is a fallacy. If left alone and let the market do its own thing, the wealth gap would aggravate with no protection of the inalienable rights of the masses against the minority rich and powerful. Hence, certain key economic functions are retained in the hand of the state. The recent regulatory framework designed to rein in the unfettered power of internet giants is case in point. The result is - a more equitable and sustainable growth.
BS.
China economy is State Monopolistic Mafia owned.
Is that why china has such a large income gap?
HuKou is the biggest barrier to equity
😂
The CCP grandees are not rich and powerful? You really believe their Bullshit like an innocent child! How can Capitalism grow without a wealth gap? It can't, and Mr Brightside here, even admit it's successful rise was by adopting Capitalism! That comes with the territory, you can't have Capitalism in the office and socialism at home, unless you're free like Sweden. With a dictator, it fails. Always.
Chinese people are intelligent and kind as well. This soft power is more powerful than wars and bombs and this is why west hates China 🇨🇳❤️🙏
是的，一些国家通过自己控制的社交平台和媒体对中国进行舆论攻击，试图影响世界对中国的看法和中国的稳定。应该被重视
Why does China hate the west?
Is that why China is building up it military? Is that why its threatening Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam? Is that why China harasses US naval reconnaissance in international waters? Or why the Chinese navy harasses its neighbors?
This is by far one of the most comprehensive and easily understood analysis of perceived China potential collapse. This is a real China expert who truly understand what he is talking about as he balanced between potential risks and actions taken to managed these risks, taking into consideration various local environment and context these risks occurred in. Kudos to Mr Pascal Coppens.
Those who are familiar with Chinese history know this: the Chinese people will accept humiliation, but they will not accept defeat. Those who suppress the Chinese people will be toppled.
Is that why they needed America's help in WWII?
Is that why they never won a war from a foreign invader in its entire history?
@@AM-bv8vi Is that why the USA needed China's help to bail them out of the 2008 financial crisis?
@@AM-bv8vi Republic of China is Taiwan 🇹🇼, not real China
@@AM-bv8viChina did not ask the Americato help
America enter the Second World War Because the Japanese attack them
If you think about it, the people who are pushing for the collapse of China are cold blooded af. Why would you want to see a country who suffered so much before 1945 and after 1945 collapse? The people in China right now are blooming like a beautiful flower, these people are prospering! Look at the vibrant cities, look at the happiness of the majority of the people, look how lively the streets of any cities in China are!
A collapse will destroy billions of people, why would some people want to see that.
Support peace, support positivity.
🍀💕
The short answer is, most Western people don't know what China is like. I'm sure a decent amount of them think China is still a mostly agrarian country with some dusty polluted cities and maybe a portrait of Xi Jinping on every street corner.
Along with that, they actually think Chinese people are miserable, starving, and yearning for "freedom". So an overthrow of the system even if "some people die" is somehow going to result in a net positive for the people living there.
Not even kidding you. That is how mass manufactured consent propaganda works. It happened to Iraq and Libya and historically also to Hawaii before it got colonized.
Jealous miscreants don't want others to succeed and do better. They would rather wreck and ruin, badmouth and blackmail to satiate inadequacies and shallow self esteem.
The Imperialists would love for China to be poor. They succeeded in enslaving Africa but their dream of completely enslaving Asia was not fulfilled. They project their deep desire outwards and latch on to anything that smells like doom...
@gauravtejpal8901 Nonsense.
@@bobsmith3983 -sensible!
I hv either read or heard of China going to disintegrate and collapse for decades.
The West, esp the Anglo-Saxon race just cannot stomach a strong China which they had had bullied, attacked and invaded since 1840, 1860, 1900 till 1945.
China needs not worry about their negative comments and just have to concentrate on growth and prosperity.
The West, now being led by an arrogant and hegemonic US can continue to maintain their totally unproductive military bases when their economy is fast declining and they will ultimately disappear from the world scene.
I have heard something like what you say China was or is going to collapse or fail years and years ago , and there was someone he called himself an expert on China ( Gordon Chang ) !
Since Gordon Chang.said untill now there was and is nothing happened at all to China ! In contrast China is getting better , stronger and richer from day to day !
What I see today the propaganda of the West’s meanstream medias keep doing disinformation and lying about China ! They should remind themself that the more lies and disinfomation they do that is the more they lost or destroy themself and their reputation !
if China really collapse, do you think any other countries would be survived?
The US trying hard to push every country in the world to adopt democratic system because of freedom. In actual fact, the only country that could enjoy such so-called “freedom” is US. Such freedoms include of meddling of other countries, causing regime change, assassinating leaders, plotting proxy wars, spreading fake news, spying, sanctioning and controlling of them, even on her own allies. As for Gordon Chang, he is just one of US’s little puppies barking around.
US is NOT a DEmocracy it is a dictatorship run by multi Billionaires for their military/Industrai profits.
Precisely
...well the US has failed then hasn't it.
@@mikerussell3298 While China is a dictatorship for the CCP
So true, wise guy
Thanks Pascal for a very good analysis of China's problems and opportunities. Many of the risks that you have listed down are very real and as you said China is tackling them. I would list one big thing that I feel is an enormous advantage that China has which most of the global north do not possess. This is the authoritarian system China has. Instead of seeing as a weakness it is in reality a strength. Governing a country as large and populous as China is not easy...you need a good government that can execute. I think in terms of execution China's system of government is superior to say the US. Many of America's problems are widely known but somehow the US is unable to resolve them. Look at India it is the largest democracy in the world that recently overtook China in terms of population size and western media tout her as the next China...in fact predicting that India would eventually surpass China economically just because she has so-called democracy and rule of law. We hear this narrative for many decades just as we hear about the impending collapse of China for many decades. But every year we are seeing India falling further and further behind....India is simply a very chaotic overpopulated country that is impossible to govern... nothing gets done... Modi is more involved in projecting India's status as a world geopolitical player and promoting his Hindu supremacy at home to win elections than tackling India's enormous problems. Overpopulation is in fact an albatross around India's neck instead of something that will turbocharge India's economic future. The future of the would is not one in the 50s and 60s where cheap labor can propel a large country into the ranks of middle income country. With AI... robotics and mechanization a country trying to become topdog will not need so many workers.....but India is producing workers out of their ears...where are all these excess workers going to find jobs in a world that is more protectionistic? Yes China has big problems but the CCP is bent of solving them. India has bigger problems that the western media is not reporting. India I think risk a revolution when the hordes of unemployed rebel.
agree with this point of view
Your understanding of India is very poor . India is growing tremendously in last few years
@@akashpatel8410 ,
When I first started posting my views on Yahoo Forum & now on You Tube, I had crossed swords with many Indian posters who loved to brag that their country will soon overtake China (and some even bragged of overtaking the US) within a decade or two. That was some 15 years ago. I would love to ask them where is India now?
@@jmchng9662 frankly no one said that even big institutions never said that . I don't know if you are stupid or the people you are talking are stupid because 15 years ago China was not world's 2 largest economy (2007 it was 3.5)it was behind Japan at that time and India( 3.8) will takeover China and U.S around 2040 to 2050 depending on situations and currently India is 5th and will take over Germany and Japan in next 2 years I don't know how did you pullout that 15 years age someone said India will surpass u.s around this time because that time India was hopeless under Congress rule and many big scam were happening
You've got a great heart for being humanity Outlook it's not open enough yet in the UNITED STATES as for China built a wall to protect people other created weapons of destruction this country needs to stop being arrogant and making a hero of a president that shutdown the government and took the security of nation away is treasonous against everyone in America
According to the latest predictions from the world renown 'FAKE' China experts Peter Zeihan, China as a nation with 1.4 billion people will be extinct within the decade.
I did not mention Peter Zeihan, but he is in the same categorie. I read his book, and cannot agree on what he wrote on China. Just had no time to zoom into it.
@@PascalCoppensHe has some valid points about China but his narrative is that oh because China has such and such a problem it would fail, although US has such and such a problem we will find solutions. It’s like only US government will find solutions and chinese government would sit on the problem and watch it fail.
Zeihan has been talking about the end of China for year with titles... End of China in 30 days. Bullshit
Peter Zeihan may still be right. I’m sure someone in Washington has been planning for that, but if that happens I wonder if the rest of the human species will also disappear along with them.
@@MrTrinitius Yup there is always the very remote possibility of it happening like the earth exploding tomorrow or a huge meteorite hitting earth causing a huge extinction event or the sun’s fusion process stop.
The strange thing is, with some of the countries in the west having growths that are near zero, or worse, negative, no one is saying their economies are collapsing. It always sounds to me like only China's economy can fall. But as we can mitness, the reality is clearly the opposite.
You mean like many finance experts talking about countries like Venezuela or Turkey going to fail. You just need to broaden your knowledge to see there are more countries out there that just talk about China in the US. The quest for wisdom is worthy. I wish you well on your journey.
Because the conclusion was already decided before collecting evidence, hence there is no need of cross-checking the evidence, or horizontal comparison.
According to Gordon, China had consistently been failing every year for 2 decades!
nothing but jealous smear champiagne.
He will have to scrub off the word CHINA in his books and replace it to "UNCLE SIMON ACHE" to cash in his next business fortune.
He's looking for his box of erasers from Ali Express already.
He should start another book. The imminent collapse of USA
China will show to the world an example of the power of a rather functional meritocratic political system.
We will see? But not so good as of yet…..
And they'll do that by bribing corrupt politicians and government officials in other countries
And they do this by steeling US technology!
And they'll do this by subverting our universities!
If we use Purchasing Power Parity, the US has already been behind China for many years. Germany is in recession. Canada's GDP is zero in 2023. So, I highly doubt China's economy will collapse any time soon, especially since China has a 5,000-year long history.
Indeed
Egypt has a 5000 year old history. Guess they won't collapse any time soon.
The trade ballance is moore important then hystory existance. If i have no money, I will not bay from CHINA,. That means I will save and they will have less. True?
@@AlexandruMircea-xs4pu Your spelling in English is terrible.
From the Ming Dynasty in China in the 14th century, the Angsa missionaries in the West brought many science and technology books from China. The West learned a lot of Chinese science and technology and copied them. At that time, many names still used Chinese names. But in the Qing Dynasty of China in the 17th century, the government suppressed technology and made China fall behind, causing the West to overtake China. Now, China is returning to the era of crazy technological development. In the future, the West will never be able to surpass China, and then steal China's technology behind.
Good analysis and fair comments. China as a nation, has been around for 4000+ years. There's very little that they haven't experienced or have not overcome to get to where they are today. Today's problems/issues are just variations of the good, the bad and the ugly of the past which they will overcome all the same.
I bet that China will still be there when the new kids on the block like the juvenile terrorist rogue state Banana Republic of America (BRA), the EU and other such groupings have long broken up and disappeared into the history of time.
Relax.
Don't forget to mention that Canada has also collasped.
No! China as a nation has not been around for 4000+ years. Countless dynasties and different governing groups over 4000 years is not a single nation.
@@acvarthered lol! Yeah, keep on lying to yourself. They are a civilization/state. Keep on splitting hairs to make yourself feel good as you watch your country self-destruct..
So is Egypt. Guess how much in common BOTH have today with either the Xia/Shang Dynasty or the 1st of Hierakonpolis
@@kanadashyuugo873no, Egypt had a very early start yet not much else for the past 2000 years. China has up and downs but yet till 1800 it’s been a major power from the very beginning
Great analysis Pascal. China is a reliable good friend, Russia, that can provide water, food and energy in times of need.
all boils done to governance. They have very good governance. Bears may disagree
Never trust the bears, they sleep during winters!
A big thank you for your comprensive analysis of China pass, present, future and possible uncertainty of certain issues.
As for Gordon Chang , he is definitely history and a waste of time even to mention him.
Thank you again Pascal.
@david- this clown keeps forecasting China's collapse, reckon this buffoon will die prior to his prophesy becoming a reality?
A bit like the collapse of North Korea, predicted by all the experts, which never happened. A nation that has survived very well for many decades.
Cuba did collapse a long time ago & to this day it still ...
Despite being Vietnam’s largest export market, the United States is currently ranked as a third-tier diplomatic partner for Hanoi. (U Stay Away) is acting like a beggar asking Vietnam to upgrade to 2nd tier.
Vietnam 's high ranking officials just visited Cuba recently
okay, now you just destroyed all credibility, North Korea is currently having mass starvation. You call "surviving" being in a totalitarian police state you aren't allowed to leave? right comrade.
@@Ottotherepoman1 I think the NK succes story is what the CCP have in mind for the west in the "..community with a shared future for mankind."
@@Ottotherepoman1 Yes, I agree that North Korea is the worst nation on the planet.
However, many told us of the imminent demise of N.K. and it hasn't happened yet.
Welcome to the world of differences between China and the U.S.A.:
When the U.S. singled out China as an outcast to its space program, particularly its International Space Station, all Chinese took it in stride and worked hard to catch up. And when China launched its Tiangong space station ten years later in 2021, the world signed up to carry out scientific experiments in space aboard the Tiangong, including the pathetic United States of America.
When China planned to send its personnel to the moon in 2030, the U.S. vowed to conquer the moon on more time, in 2025, and the U.S. Space Force said it can wage a space war at any given time. The world is waiting to see who the winner will be.
When the U.S. used Ukraine to destroy the Russian economy, lesser countries around the globe fear for themselves. But when Russia fought back and burned the collective West with high inflation, the world cheered up.
When the U.S. was busy gathering allies and friends to contain the rise of the Chinese nation, the world applauded when China bridged the historical divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran and brought them together to serve the interests of all Muslims in the region, no matter what their religious tendencies might be.
When the U.S. printed money without constraint just to appease its own population so they forget about the economic failure on American soil, China stabilized the economy of the world by maintaining a steady supply of much needed commodities while inflation flared up in the Western world until today.
When the U.S. acted miserably in begging to have the lines of communications with China as if China is the bully who ignores "the leader of the world," people in all political circles secretly admired when China openly told the U.S. in their face to stop the theatrics and to truly show their sincerity for talks before any meetings can take place between the two sides.
When the U.S. publicly displayed its fury at the Chinese Yuan replacing their petrodollar, the whole world enthusiastically embraced the de-dollarization movement that has been spreading like wildfire across the globe as a self-defense mechanism to lessen the possibility of American sanctions or to avoid being a victim of American sanctions for holding too much of the greenback in their foreign exchange reserves.
When the U.S. tried its best to decouple from the Chinese economy, Elon Musk of Tesla voted to set up another giga-factory for EV batteries and to develop autonomous driving technology in China using Chinese artificial intelligence and Chinese global positioning devices, Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan Chase held a tech exchange investment in Shanghai to further embrace the Chinese economy and declared the opposition of American financial behemoths against decoupling from China, and Nvidia's Jensen Huang will visit other tech companies in China and declared his opposition to American sanctions against China that badly hurt the profitability of American tech companies while Apple's Tim Cook quit India and returned to China for iPhone productions.
Now you know who is out to destroy it to forever maintain its supremacy over all others and who possesses the desire to share a common future with other nations around the globe.
Great video Pascal. You are right in every aspect of presentation. Truth prevails.
Thanks!
I think he did a good job but I mean a lot of it is opinion he's not Nostradamus.
do not worry about China, the western is becoming poorer and pooer, more and more homeless and addicted people on streets, unaffordable home etc.
You are absolutely right about next year the two elections will rise the stake like crazy. The worst case is some crazy hawk in the US and the DDP winning both elections, and like idiots start something so stupid they never anticipate would drag everyone in down a fiery hole. The best case is for KMT to win the election and people like ex-President Ma coming in and lowering the temperature on both sides. That said, what would happen if the US sees red and resorts to its old tricks of destabilizing a democratic elected government through coup or whatever. And if so what would be the PRC response? Yeah 2024, not going to be an easy year.
a dangerous year indeed.
Are you referring to the Sunflower movement of 2014? US has been there, done that
When did the USA ever destabilized a democratically elected government?
Who is supporting the military junta in Myanmar? Who is propping up the dictator in Syria and Cambodia? Who is funding North Korea?
We need to understand that China faces many challenges, just like every other major economy in the world. Are China's challenges more dire than, say, in the United States or United Kingdom or Germany? Hell, no!
The USA faces huge problems. A huge $32 trillion national debt. A potential banking crisis. A potential real estate crisis. A demographic problem. Crumbling infrastructure. And so on.
Over the past 50 years, China has demonstrated a far greater capacity for solving its problems than America has. I'll place my bet on China any day of the week.
As long as the communist holds power, China won't implode nor collapse. If China goes democracy and liberalization, China will collapse. But China is falling into the Middle Income Trap which is different from collapse.
The middel income trap is a danger zone indeed.
if so, let China deal with it, let's not lecture them what they need to do, let's focus on our own backyard.
@ohcho-fg4co That is assuming the CPC doesn't have an answer for the middle income trap. China has found solutions for everything so far. Just because one country has failed doesn't mean that others will. Don't project your failures on other countries. The quality of life in China has exceeded that of West. The West is dying.
All of this is what scares the American Capitalists!!! Instead of trying to coerce other countries to submit to The US, the American Capitalists refuse to change and adapt in a good way!!!
In 100 trillion years, when the universe collapses, every country on this planet will also collapse. And China is not an exception.
The so called 100 trillion year? You must be silly to think about 100 trillion years later?? We all think only usa education system teach this type of thinking and mindset to those study in usa?
There is no proof that the universe will collapse and human beings will have the technologies to travel between planets. The Chinese system is a tried and proven systems that had stand the test of time up to now. There is something for the world can learn from China.
the short answer is yes. even your Timex watch could fail.
however, China is the only civilization capable of reinventing itself repeatedly throughout its long history that no other empire could.
The intent is to flood the consciousness of people so they can pounce and take advantage of the slightest problem. They know it's ridiculous but the intent is to put people in a state where their minds are ready to be told to attack China.
}
Thanx for the communist Propaganda! Attack China? Really? What about the fact that China is threatening all their neighbors and interfering with shipping in international waters? What about the spying China does on the west? You're so full of crap!
Agree!
If you read Global Times then the attack on America is daily. Name me a popular main stream media in the west that attacks China on such a regular basis. If they did they wouldn't be main stream for one because people are just not interested. China stores make up a very small number of articles in main stream media.
China is his transition period, it is hard to say whether it will be successful or how long this period will be. But i don't think there will be a sudden collapse.
Mr. PC, you are just awesome, Thanks for the info.
Thanks!
Pascal, i think you forgot that the west is sanctioning China companies too and that is also reducing the GDP growth, but then China is still growing even with those new sanctions.
True. China is under much pressure.
They sanction Chinese companies because the CCP uses those companies to conduct surveillance on foreign citizens, collect information on foreign government officials, and spy on the west!
Agreed. Half the growth though is debt fueled. That may get higher if GDP remains a political figure that has to be achieved.
Sanctions are to reduce competition since the US truly is limited in skill and competence!😅😂
The growth is massive debt because the CCP cannot fail, they will lose their objectives and goals of superseding the dollar and US economy. The investment money is leaving China as of the last several months / weeks. The effects are going to be really felt come in the next fiscal year.
As a Chinese living in the USA, I agree with you
In 5,000 years of history, china has probably collapsed 50 times with the last collapse in 1949 when the kuomingtang government under generalissimo chiang kai shek hightailed it to taiwan (where he proclaimed it as republic of china 🇹🇼) after losing the chinese civil war. 😂
lots of good information here. I've lived in China almost 20 years and can vouch for the fact that there are challenges but the Central goverment tackles them well - I thnk Gordon Chang gets it so wrong because he looks at China with a Western lens rather than looking at China through his half Chinese eyes. There are huge psychological differences and you nailed one of them China's national debt is a lot less of a problem than USA's because it's internal, the debt is secured by the fact that China saves more than the GDP of most countries every year
when will they claim US and British and NATO is going to collapse???
US has a One party system. they call Chinese government The communist party but never called US government as the capitalist Democrat or Republican party?? 😅😂 the West do the same thing as China when there's a housing market bubble in the US but the west never point out this. When US population reaches 1.4 billions like China is let's see how US deal with that to control a pandemic or feed that population 😅😂
There are double standards at play indeed
Hi Pascal, thank you very much for another video by you!! 👍👏❤
I should like to share - freedom in China means it has one of the best & affordable education, medical, transport, amenities and social security systems in the world.
Freedom in China also means virtually no homeless, drug abuses, porn, public shootings, very minimal crimes and obesity!
A survey done recently showed 91% of the citizens of China are happy with their life, and 95% approved the Chinese Government ways of running the country!
China is moving forward - continuously improving, self correcting and evolving quickly to the passage of time - all things in China is getting better & better each passing year! 😊
Thanks to Gordon Chang, the claim made China stronger, able to find ways to avoid failures 🤪
I read more about Gordon Chang here than anywhere else
About the Chinese debt, I think I need to clarify something very important. We always talk about the debt, instead of asking where the money has gone. Chinese government uses the money to promote the infrastructures. There is a movement that our Chinese government improve the infrastructures even in the rural villages. Look at these rural villages, they have electricity, road of concrete, internet, clean water and so on. Of course, these projects are always not profitable. As a communist belief, the government is for the people, and everyone must share a modern society life. CCP also spends a lot of money to launch a project to move the rural villages inside the mountains to towns and cities. This project helps these people participate the development of whole society. As a comparison, how does the government of USA spend their money? The military and the war!
If China is to collapse, then US has nothing to worry about. So if you believe what the US says all day, then you wouldn't even have such questions.
As I see the only risk is Taiwan. Simply it's a button too easy to be pushed by the US out of panic.
China keeps it up, I had had full confidence on you, keep it up, China!
1 China's GDP = 5.5 India.
What will happen to India if China fails ?
India will prosper
Can India handles the on slaught of the united snake slandered sanction .
@@ahliong Yes, india can bark 24 hrs.....🤓🤓🤓🤓🤓🤓
@@peterneil6859 holy cow !!!
India will replace them!
Incredible. Good talk!!!
Thank you Pascal, for more of your well researched storying of China's progress and what the PRC/CPC is having to deal with as a consequence of such relatively rapid growth. The pace of China's growth is such that the response to by other nation states varies between admiration among much of the Global South, to envy among some of the slower growing developing countries, to outright fear on the part of major state powers who believe their share of global wealth and influence is being reduced as China's increases. Hence an increase in anti China rhetoric throughout much of the collective West.
Thanks!
As a country develops the rate of growth becomes less. China is no exception. Debt fueled growth will catch up with it. For the CCP GDP is a political target. It will be achieved what ever the cost. (debt)
@@Andy-P China also makes very expensive mistakes th-cam.com/video/Lck_ugnP6Cs/w-d-xo.html
Anti-China rhetoric is nothing to do with China's growth. More to do with her Foreign Policy. China economic model needs to change. Cannot have high growth forever even if that growth is fuelled by debt. Brazil had rapid growth along with other countries and they had to change their economic model. So did the existing western economies. Hence their low growth now.
@@Andy-P China has the distinct advantage of knowing how to subordinate and manage capital and capitalists in order to meet it's socialist objectives. This is a lot more sophisticated and sustainable than leaving it almost entirely to the market place and its capitalist owners.
You know, actually Chinese thank Gordon Chang, he makes the room and space for China to develop under the watch of the US.
Gorden Chang and Jim Cramer are two broken clocks without all the needles 😅😂😅😂
How do we define collapse?
Do we mean the fall of the CCP?
Do we mean the rise of poverty and loss of the middle class in China?
Do we mean a change of people at the top of the CCP?
Do we mean the end of major banks in China?
Without definition, we have no idea what is meant by "collapse".
I share your optimism too. China is a problem solver, so they will somehow solve the chip problem, as they have figured out the nuclear energy, space endeavour, AI and quantum computing.
Yes, the Taiwan issue will be the red line and US knows that's China's Archilles' heel. China can deal with the red line without attacking militarily but containing economically. But even without the Taiwan issue, the West will conspire as a bloc to bring China down.
Fortunately for China, it has already reached a point where it could survive even without the West, leveraging on its strong relations with Central Asia, Middle East, Africa and S America.
China's strategy of non-interference and infrastructure building with emerging nations is more appealing to the third world than US's strategy of domination.
A point will be reached when India too will be a part of that eco-system in which China is and the West will feel left out.
Is not the west help China growth? Does China is self trillionaire
From the Ming Dynasty in China in the 14th century, the Angsa missionaries in the West brought many science and technology books from China. The West learned a lot of Chinese science and technology and copied them. At that time, many names still used Chinese names. But in the Qing Dynasty of China in the 17th century, the government suppressed technology and made China fall behind, causing the West to overtake China. Now, China is returning to the era of crazy technological development. In the future, the West will never be able to surpass China, and then steal China's technology behind.
@@fockbgs937 It's sad that technology becomes a weapon of one over another. It should be commercial competition and not between nations.
In China, they have only one party to govern the entire country.
In my country, we have only 1 man to control all our fates. LOL
Many comments pit India vs China. West is trying hard to divide and conquer. As India grows, it's inevitable to look for huge market, and China is just over the border.
its unnecessary to divide
Absolutely, China failed. China's average personal income level have not exceed Luxembourg. GDP have not over pass USA. Air quality have not pass Sweden. Education have not pass Japan. Health care have not pass Belgium.
So there is a lot of room to improve and evolve further still. If China's GDP per capita, healthcare, education and air quality would be as good as Sweden, China would be 4 times more powerful than United States is today. Maybe that is a good thing for us China is not there yet?
All those pessimistic predictors will fail. The real problem is that they don't know why they are going to fail. Because they are using a wrong accounting system to calculate China. Here, I used "accounting" to replace Karl Marx's word "value" but they are pretty much the same thing. The western value system is based on the profitability of individual corporations, therefore, it is is pretty much static and individual based.
That I agree. I put that in different videos last year
The high-speed rail system seems to be a good example. The system is not profitable, yet the spill-over effect on the economy is huge and far more important.
@@pycpenn The HSR network is the tool being used to advance the Chinese economy. It may be not be self sustaining but it is part of the overall economy which is prospering. The Chinese government provides the infrastructure that enables the success of China.
On debt: I'd like to point out that when you go into debt for infrastructure building, there is usally a pay-back over time. When you go into debt to finance wars, the asset disappears and all you're left with is the debt along with a lot of destruction, displacement, death and misery. I disagree on the subject of Taiwan if the KMT wins a majority. Past patterns show that if this happens, the other side will double down and there'll be a color revolution and then a repeat of Ukraine. I hope China has a plan to nip this in the bud.
True on debt. Although China is not always been investing wisely in infrastructure either - but much less in military. As for KMT, I appreciate your viewpoint.
Great Knowledge, great analysis. Very well presented. Thank you!
Thanks!
Thank you for the balanced and extremely rare perspective on China. On the point about China’s perceived mishandling with the widespread lockdowns at the tail-end of the COVID pandemic, I tend to think it was a calculated move with several objectives, not least of which was to send a wake-up call to the world on how important it is to the global supply chain and a precursor of what the effects of war with China will be. Even if war is inevitable, at least the country had a dry run already.
Agreed. China is important in the supply chain. The west has taken note hence de-risking. As you say at least everyone has had a dry run over the future war for Taiwan... maybe world war.
@@Andy-P the real one would be a lot worse. The West is unprepared and deluding themselves if they think they can genuinely replace the productive output from China. Shelves running empty will be the least of their problems if war breaks out. Maybe that’s what the elites want anyway. So all good.
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER 🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
miscalculated handling, using it to create a bigger police state, testing the grounds of surveillance, propaganda, mass lockdowns and internet control. yet slowly but surely people realize they cannot live in this police state. white paper movement showed that CCP can cave so now they are increasing even more policing with the "rural police" on top of now the city police. But never mistreat the peasants, they will bring down the state.
To the Chinese government, every life (young or old) is valuable, priceless and every care must be taken to limit deaths. You can compare to the numbers of COVID deaths (less than 10K) vs US with more than 1 Million deaths.
👍Thank you for you expertise opinion. 😊China’s current uptrend will turn down, but only after a longer period (200-300 years, historically in 5,000 years of civilisation) of running up and peaking.
I came from China and have lived in the States for last 40 years.I totally understand what you've managed to convey and overall am in agreement. Chinese people are very resilient, in addition, the power of long history and culture should never be underestimated. If you understand Confucius, you'll understand why the system can not fall easily and why the meaning of family is completely different from that in the west in general. A big country is built on many communities and communities are built on many families within the communities. In China that structure is very solid and well organized, which is one of the reasons there are simply very few homeless persons on the street. Chinese parents always emphasize their children's education, no exceptions.
My prediction: the sun will rise in the east and sets in the west.
smart man
Excellent facts and analysis. No country can grow forever important thing is how the government manages crisis.
Thanks!
How can China be collapsing when she’s still sending more rockets into space?
Indeed. China is still going to be around in the forseeable future.
banana had
Thanks Pascal for the great insights. Somehow, the west is always very "concern" for the welfare of China and it's people. ( i'm overwhelmed by how much love they have for others ) China NEVER export their idealogy to others. They have NEVER preached communism to the west. On the other hand. The west is always giving sanctimonious preaching to other as though their western style democracy is the paragon of virtue and success. ( which is far from the truth because their country is failing ) While the Chinese government is doing their best to improve the lives of it's people. ( they have lifted 800 million people out of poverty ) The west is always creating wars and interferring in other peoples business except helping their own people. ( one in six people in America needs food handout ) When things fail in their own country they blames China for it. They nitpick on every issue in China while their very own gets sweep under the carpet. The west should stop living in self denial and open their eyes to what is happening in the bigger world.
不要相信你知道的一切，一切是如此的好查證，中共正在以國家力量赤化全世界，這是一個暴力的
鬥爭，宣傳是一個欺騙的手段與目的! 人民與所有資源都將為鬥爭而貢獻與犧牲!
Mr. Pascal, China needs a great leap forward moment. Most advanced breakthrough in technology. Something like making EUV lithography machines on their own.
The EUV lithography machine issue will be solved soon. Huawei has already developed a EUV source suitable for fabricating feature sizes of 5nM or less.
Before China rising , I have never heard of so many discussions about China in west media . So the west is trying to figure out what to do with rising China, but not knowing how to deal with it. So maybe predicting the collapse of China will make the problem going away ?
funny
'Not fast enough' based on whose expectations? China leadership is probably more circumspect and deliberate than the West.
Not fast enough...is a relative concept. If I compare with the speed of change in Europe, China is plenty fast enough. But I would hope the speed can increase still to keep the economy fueled.
For a 1.4 billion ppl country, financial/economic stability is always more important than any speedy sudden moves...CN gov is so much better than the Western gov, and of course all China experts/analysts/etc--they only know their own perspective from a Western angle, and often try to impose their wants consciously or unconsciously.
the thing about reports on china is that still you'd quote claims made by the ccp (like gdp) as absolute unadulterated fact which we know must be taken with a sack of salt
Excellent talk, like always Pascal!
I love the subtle humor scattered throughout the presentation, thank you.
I love your insights! I think u are factual, fair, and well balanced!
Amazing, amazing video! As someone who lived there 11 years, I can't agree with you more! Subscribed!!!
Enlightening insight of China in every aspects supported with simple but indepth analyses. Your views on China always give me a far deeper understanding of the country which is completely opposite of what we're hearing from the West. Great job👍
SIR MY INDIA IS THE REAL SUPERPOWER 🤗🇮🇳 WE HAVE THE BEST INFRASTRUCTURE AND HIGHSPEED RAIL 🤗🇮🇳 MEANWHILE IN CHINA PEOPLE STILL RIDE RICKSHAW EVERYWHERE AND THEY ALSO POOR DONT HAVE CAR . THIS WHY IM SO LUCKY LIVE IN SUPER INDIA THE CLEANEST COUNTRY IN THE WORLD 🇮🇳🤗 , WE NEVER SCAM! WE GIVE RESPECT TO ALL WOMEN THEY CAN WALK SAFELY ALONE AT NIGHT AND WE HAVE CLEAN FOOD AND TOILET EVERYWHERE 🇮🇳🤗🚽, I KNOW MANY POOR PEOPLE JEALOUS WITH SUPER RICH INDIA 🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳🤗🇮🇳
@@indiasuperclean6969The great JOKE of the Century 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Productivity based on physical goods produced or revenue derived are two different things. On a PPP basis, China is more productive than most of the western. And look at actual employment, China has the highest employment in the world against population. Although retirement is early for the Chinese but the elderlies continue to take up part time jobs such as sweeping the parks or engaged in small enterprises such as services in eateries which are often not taxed and not captured under GDP in any measure. Also the virtual GDP measured in the US by the stock market activities on Wall Street, whether it is real economic activity or just manipulating the stock price by buying your own share, China does not have very much of this. The Chinese invest more in productivity than stocks.
Unbiased analysis is what we usually lack. You did great being Unbiased! Lesson: we need each others. Any domination plans will simply create unbalance, then will lead to inevitable and continuous crisis in our societies. Greed need to go!
We absolutely do not need each other. Get over it.
@douglassorge6235 Really? When things get tough, you sure remember you do have a neighbor (could someone from anywhere in the world!).
You probably will remember our exchange today. Good luck in your endeavors!
Sorry to look naive, but i have a question about Gordon Chang.
Why does he have so much hatred towards China and by extension to Chinese people?
Though why he has so much hatred towards China? Does he need money? Some issue with his ego maybe??
China has enough water. It just have to avoid draining into the sea, remove all industrial pollution and use the water carefully. The South-North Water diversion is a massive project that is still on-going but is very successful. Too much rainwater is still being drained into the sea. Plus Tibet will be diverting the water to Xinjiang and reducing the flow into India and Bangladesh.
Pascal, you know China very well. Your analyse is neutral, not like many Western people, bias.
I'm about to start watching but I will make my comments early nevertheless. Asking whether China can fail is as silly as asking whether Singapore can be ruled by non-PAP government. 😂.
I so hope Mr Coppen can make similar analysis to Singapore and its PAP ruler 😊.
I am no expert on Singapore, so would be out of my league.
@@PascalCoppens somewhat oot here. I see that you have a Dutch rather than French surname. I’m somewhat curious if your parents / grandparents are of Dutch-Indonesian origin..?
Presidential Shi said only reunion peacefully with Taiwan. Not a forceful reunion with Taiwan.
Time always tells the truth.
Great video. Sadly most China bashers in the western media are paid specifically to spread extremely selective reporting. The minimum requirement for a Chinese expert is to be able to speak and read Chinese fluently, and that outrightly disqualified the majority of western commentators on China as most of their analysis are only scratching the surface.
And then the next requirement is to have local expertise, connections to locals, and having guanxi with huge layers of different folks at different social classes and sectors.
Modeling the chinese economy is impossible using the western models as none of the advanced economies have absolute control over the financial sectors and land supply.
All the data need to be backed up from anecdotes on the ground experience, and most western commentators don't seem to have such experience except a few living inside China.
Actually, I believe US' debt in total is close to 760% of the GDP, 2-3 times the total debt of China. Not consuming everything immediately is "delayed gratification", isn't that a necessary attribute to be long term successful? Besides, investment also contributes to GDP growth, where Chinese investment (delayed gratification?) is on average higher than the rest of the word, but it is seen as bad because the claim is that it is non sustainable...... with no valid reason as to why higher investment is not sustainable. The same argument could easily be rephrased as to over-consumption being unsustainable.... But I am not sure why over-consumption gets a free pass compared to 'over'-investment, when looking at GDP growth....
fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/CHINA-DEBT-HOUSEHOLD/010030H712Q/index.html
Higher investment can be sustained as long as export growth, consumption growth and productivity growth keeps up. Ideally all three.
Just a thought, Chinese retirees are actually day care professionals for their grandchildren.
According to Trading Economics, China's public debt-to-GDP ratio is 76.9 percent, while for USA it's 129 percent. (It's 113 percent for Canada, 101 percent for UK, 112 percent for France, 66.3 percent for Germany, 145 percent for Italy, and 264 percent for Japan.)
All things considered, China isn't doing badly at all. China's private debt, on the other hand, may be quite large (185 percent of GDP) but again, according to Trading Economics, the G7 countries don't look any better (216 percent for USA, 271 percent for Canada, 194 percent for UK, 284 percent for France, 182 percent for Germany, 166 percent for Italy, and 246 percent for Japan).
It’s 300% of the GDP as reported.
@@maalat ???
76.9 + 185 = 261.9.
And it's 345% for USA, and 384% for Canada.