This video is a little longer, but then again it is a big topic. I also wanted to make up for not sharing videos these past 2 weeks. ;-) As explained at the end of my video, I will be posting Pascal's China Lens every other week now instead of weekly as I am travelling too much since the travel restrictions have been lifted in most countries. I might make some short videos on location if that is of interest? Do let me know.
India is still a dirt poor agrarian country with a deeply dysfunctional and corrupt political system Thier birth rates are falling and are also losing my majority of their STEM talents to western nations The answer is no
India not targeted by US yet not because they have democracy but the American don't see them as a threat, however once the India begin to rise to US the narrative will change immediately and it will be interesting to see how India cope up with the western sanction...Therefore we will see how India tackle with those western sanction which in my opinion that the Indian might not able to handle as well as their Chinese counterpart ...
The only reason the US not treat them as a threat because India isn't the second largest economic body! If the US can crashing Japanese economic they would do the same to India rather they are democracy or not!
UK will create a FTA with India by 24th Oct'22 or there abouts. The speed of the Indian economy growth will see it top most in Health, Pharmaceutical, Renewables, Auto-mobile manf, Digitisation of economy (40% of $3.6T eco), Military manf. Indians are good in Aerospace too. SCO will take away the lands of the STAN countries to manf low Indian companies, the ME will be the customers of these Muslim countries, AI will change education in these Muslim countries. USA will be seeing it's KARMA coming back. The USA, Latin America will be struggling their Christian KARMA and whilst AUKUS kicks it a back on behind OF China. With Xi Jinping 'controlling a digital china' without any muscle to stand against a Strong Indian defence, the Chinese will "Lie back" .
US will not allow another peer competitor from the Wolfowitz Doctrine. India's democracy is more vulnerable to US NGO meddling to stifle progress. A lot of countries have accused US of political meddling using its NGOs to incite violence, like Thailand, Mexicans, Ecuador, Nicaragua, etc to stifle progress.
The rise of China in very short period, is what the humanity had never seen or heard of. They have achieved it by hard labour and not by hypocrisy or colonisation or by exploiting others. All have to accept it and appreciate China.
Totally disagree with your saying the US/West likes or prefer to do business with India rather than China because India is a democracy. This is nonsense. India has been a democracy since they gained independence from Britain about 50 years ago. Why is it only now that the West prefers to do business with India? What took them so long? Just wait till China surpasses US becoming number 1 while US is downgraded to number 2. Would the US and the West still support India to surpass them and catch up to China? or most likely you find US/West start supporting the different religious, ethnic factions in India to rise up with colour revolutions, wars and chaos like they did to the middle East or what they have been doing to China with Taiwan, Xinjiang, HK, and Tibet. India then get broken up into small useless puppet states of the West. The West has propagandize and make democracy out to be some kind of beacon, the best ever. No it is not. Democracy is a nightmare for many because at its root, democracy is a divide n conquer technique where people are divided into different groups/parties, all fighting each other wasting time, money, effort, and resources. It is a system that benefits a few elites at the the expense of the mass of population. Every few years the country goes into a civil war in which the top few goes in for a power grab. It creates conflict and instability. As soon as someone gets elected, the losers could band together to undermine the winner. Nothing ever get done or resolve. The few handful of Western countries and the US/Canada etc were rich and successful is because they were living off the fat of their ancestors colonial days and living in debt. How many democracies are there in the world, and how many of them r actually successful, prosperous n stable? If democracy were so good, then India, Latin America, and many other poor, third world countries would be well ahead by now.
All the leaders of the world are queuing up begging to do business with China. All the CEO of big corporation of the world including US are salivating to go into Chinese market for a share of Chinese prosperity!
China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong are doing very well in terms of economic development. They all belongs to the same Confucius cultural sphere. The names the people in these countries are all written in Chinese characters and they all use chopsticks for eating. Even the Chinese living in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam are very rich. Confucius culture plays a role in promoting economic development.
I am Chinese. Thank you for the detailed analysis and comparison between China and India in this video. I hope that India and China will return to their rightful positions in their respective histories as soon as possible. Although the two countries have large populations and industrial competition, I still believe that these two countries will lead the world economy to become the two most powerful economies in the future.
It is refreshing to see a non controversial comment from a Chinese.. usually it goes like China best India in the dumps .. I too have a very similar feeling that the two ancient civilizations need to earn their rightful place back. Nature has separate our geographies enough for us to coexist and not be enemies.
Both Indians & Chinese Are One Of The Oldest & Richest Civilisation Alive On Planet. Together They Can Grow Very Huge & Bring Prosperity & Peace To The World. American & European Continent Have Come Out Of Acute Poverty. Still, We Have African & Asian Continent To Help The Population Overcome Poverty & Provide The Basic Needs At Low Cost. It’s Responsibility Of India & China Majorly. China Really Needs A Better Leader Than Xi For Global Peace.
@@ilasawjani443 😅 Chinest communist Party be like : what but we are planning it see west( Kashmir) helping paxistan cuz now it's hard to expand east( tiwan,)
"It was Empire and colonialism." Both of which China still has! China is still an Empire with Emperor Xi at its helm. None of the Chinese emperors in the past EVER had the power and reach of Emperor Xi. Tibet was COLONISED around the same time as European powers were colonizing as well. The MAIN difference here is that Europeans have given up on colonies a long time back, but China is still hanging on to its colonies by controlling them in the WORSE ways than a former colonizer.
Not every country can replicate China's success. A country's success is dependent on many factors, not least human factors such as intelligence, culture, capacity for hard work and skill.
That's why u stifled democracy tortured people and theft intellectual property of other country not allow foreign companies to compete with open free and fair competition
@@allowedme But Viet doesn't have the resources and industrial infrastructures as China has. China has a lot of raw materials and doesn't need to rely on imports, but Viet can't, so the cost would be totally different.
Me as a Chinese never think China and India are rivals, historically both ancient countries complement each others well both culturally and economically. We share similar memory of suffering from western imperialism and endeavor the alleviation of poverty and get back to its rightful geopolitical status on the world stage. My best wishes to my Indian brothers and lets work together the rejuvenation of an Asian Era rather than fighting over who is stronger than whom . Raise you hand if you agree with me !!
OMG you are so true, i think the same, only if china not poke India on loc and Arunachal Pradesh. Together India and China can do so much, why fight when we have many more things to solve?
Modi first invited Chinas XiJinPig to India after winning in 2014 and also in 2019. But Xi betrayed him thinking Modi is papu like rahul. Today Xi has burnt his fingers chineese themselves are not believing him
Xi also did biowar Covid war in the world and invited anger from across the world. Japan and Australia and SouthEastAsia was threated by Xi so they all are waiting to damage china
I'm an Indian and as much as I would love to see India grow and transform, we are still very behind in most of the things when compared with China or USA. Don't know what the future of this country would be, but we can only hope for it to be the best.
as a foreigner recently visited India..I can say that India is seriously focusing on infra..when I googled I found out that they are already building 28 expressways and they recently introduced logistics policy to reduce infra issues
Democracy, instead of being an advantage for India, is India's major setback. Look at Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong and even Japan. Which one did not have centralized administration during their upward development phase. Semblance of democracy came after certain degree of successful developments. Western actions to isolate and disengage from China only motivate China to become self-reliance. China has no choice. Look at nuclear developments, space station, luna and martian exploration, Baido (GPS) system, 5G and 6G, high speen rail system, drones, etc., China had to rely on her own. According to PIIE, China is second only to US in payment for intellectual rights. So China is not just a copy cat. Which concerted efforts to embargo China had succeeded?
A few points i would like to point out: 1) Diversity, in most cases, is a burden, not a strength. You will need extra effort to have a harmonious society that does not divide itself from difference in culture, religion and language. China has been unified for thousands of years in many of their population center and many of the Han ethnicity are in fact assimilated minorities. To prove my point, Japan and Korea is even more homogenized than China and yet they are also highly successful and innovative during their peak. Diversity is something we have to deal with because it is a reality in many places, but do not mistaken it as a strength or somehow an inherent advantage to creativity and innovation. What truly helps innovation is the environment and condition to innovate such as education, wealth, work culture etc, rather than ethnicity. 2) Western democracy is an experiment and as you said it yourself is highly flawed due to the involvement of capital. It is not a true democracy since your votes and choices are controlled by the capitalist. The experiment is about to reach its conclusion. Look at the collective west and even the so called asian "democracies". Many are showing weakness as well and many are still stuck in poverty. Western preference to befriend other democracies is based on lies and flawed ideologies. The elite loved other democracies because they can play them by the same rule: capitalism. By excluding other non western democracies in relationship is undemocratic in itself. What an irony. 3) India's demography is an advantage and a burden to the country. It cannot get demographic dividend if education, healthcare and employment does not keep up. It is a double edge sword that can lead to social unrest. An aging society is also not all bad as it is a stable one. As long as thee aging is within reasonable range and not too fast to overwhelm the country's pension system, a populous country with limited resources like China can benefit from a slight population reduction. GDP will not grow much, but gdp per capita will grow and therefore improving overall living standard.
For the U.S. diversity was good when it provided the environment to attract talents all over the world. Immigrants make overwhelming amount of contribution to all the scientific and technological success. The prestigious universities are still drawing the most brilliant people to America. Therefore it is not necessarily the local diversity. It is the ability to allure thinkers around the world population of 7 billion people. However for a country with 1.4 billion China already has a pretty big talent pool. They are now exposed to the rest of the world. Regardless of the effort for the West to block, they will get outside inspiration, cross pollenization, just through literature, entertainment, and through open-source information from the Internet. We already know there are extremely smart people there, and the results of the past 40 years proved it.
@@Whitfield369 This statement about diversity is often concocted by the western media as a triumph of western civilization. Yes, the west and especially america is draining the brains of the world for the last few decades, but not because of diversity, it is because of america's strength in economy and wealthy lifestyle (with a good dose of ideological propaganda) that attracts these immigrants most, not because of diversity. Diversity is a big headache that america has to deal with. America has always relied on immigrants to shore up their brain pool and this also does not mean diversity is a strength. It just means, like i said america is rich enough to attract them. Diversity is a side effect they need to deal with and dealt with it poorly judging by the amount of racism in the US. In contrast, have you wondered why most local chinese in china don't know what racism is despite living in a multi-ethnic places? Racism in China is not a big issue because they already dealt with this diversity for a much longer time than the US.
Very good 3 points. As for diversity, I would say that it can be both a strength and weakness. Monocultures like Japan or South Korea have shown to be extremely effective, yet places like Silicon Valley have also shown that innovation needs challenging minds from all over the world. I believe diversity (if not a religious crusade) has lots of benefits if managed well. It is a weaker point of China in my view, but not impossible to overcome either. I believe that smart and fair multicultural debates is very conductive to innovative disruptions.
@@PascalCoppens Indian diversity is a weakness, hence the recent anti-Muslim pogroms by the current Indian party in power, to say nothing of inter-caste discrimination and violence. China has diversity as a strength, as "Han" is a multi-ethnic socio-cultural construct of assimilation and self-identity developed over millennia. "Han" Chinese of the north are ethnically and linguistically different from those of the south and west. Han is most easily conceptualized as 'fully assimilated Chinese'. There are over 1 Billion Han Chinese, and they are spread over vast distances, very different from the small Korean peninsula or Japanese islands.
Can India become the next China? Could India become the next factory of the world? yes if they replace their democratic system with Chinese administration system
Imperialism is a failure. Not a good system Look at their 1 child policy disater. Their CCP create famines when they ordered to kill sparrows or diverted farmers to manufacture steel. Chinasproperty bubble just bursted. People are refusing to pay emi of homes cause they didn't even get their homes. Their tofu construction. Their gender mismatch in demography. Companies getting out of China. Huge debt in China.
As an Indian, I would like to add two conflicting points: 1. The reality is India is nowhere China and it can never achieve the growth that China went through in early 2000s. Reasons? Diversity and a heavy representative democracy. India has nearly 2796 unofficial parties that has some kinda power in its democratic system. Each represents a group of people divided by language, region, caste, religion, tribe and etc. This makes it incredibly hard for the government to implement any policies without facing a backlash. That of course, disturbs the political stability in the country. This is why you find India has a huge disparity in income amongst different regions. The South is more progressive and is ruled by progressive parties that focuses on social justice. This helped them to get educated more and make progress much faster compared to some states in North. In North, a region which was most affected by the loot and invasions. It was always divided. Especially, a huge division between the native Hindus and Muslims who are seen as invaders "who made them poor" and looted their Hindu temples. This meant people there voted on premise on religion and caste. It became a question of who ruled over who unlike South? If I was a Hindu, I was support BJP since they support Hindus. If I was a Muslim, I would support Congress since they don't support as much. This is why North where most people live is underdeveloped compared to South. This isn't going to change anytime soon given people in North are way more religious than people in South. 2. However, this is not to say India won't grow or stagnate or even decline like its neighbors - Pakistan or Sri Lanka. It will grow but, at a very mid consistent pace by adopting Big Tent policies that satisfies everyone. India has done some wonders that some Western countries weren't able to do. India is really good at leapfroging. IT sector is a great example where it has done that. They don't shy away from trying new and innovative things despite the fact that they are poor. It doesn't stop them. It has people struggling under extreme poverty but, that didn't stop it from doing IT, a space program or now being top leaders in AI adaptability more than UK and USA (according to Decision Intelligence Maturity Report 2022 by Peak.ai). In conclusion, where do I see India in 10 years? Definitely will not anywhere near China in terms of total economy due to political struggles I mentioned earlier. However, it will be a very divided country in terms of economic prosperity. You will have people in urban cities earning as much as Westerners working in tech and etc. It will have more millionaires and billionaires than US one day (still behind China). You will have all the innovation and growth happening within that cluster of people where only they will prosper. The poor and uneducated will stay poor. However, I think India knows this. This is why it is focusing on manufacturing. It is the only way to provide employment to relatively young and yet unskilled workers. It is the next stage. But, I worry that their innovation in manufacturing and agriculture will not leapfrog as fast as their services.
By 2024 India will be a 4 Trillion USD economy. And by 2030 India will definitely go beyond 7 Trillion! And now with BJP Government India is on right track.Through Hindutva movement India is going to become a Focused Organized Unit leaving all the caste/religious/political issues behind!
Hi Pascal I am an Indian so I know what is the conditions right here in india. I read quite a few comments, people are talking about a lot of problems and concluding 'that's why india can't become like that'. Yes I have to agree some are true but most of them are not. In the past we also had a lot of problems but we counter them. Some are trying to say that their people are smarter than indians so we develop this much. But in practical every people in the globe is equal. It's only about recourse, time and infra. If one country can arrange it they will develop further. About hard working if you insight into the life a common indian guy then you will find how how hard working they are. Jai hind 🇮🇳
Problems aren't India not smart but the whole Governing systems plus culture intolerance. You can say it is changing but remember the whole world is changing too, even the poorest country.
India needs a complete social revolution. Just like agriculture, if there is no thorough deep plowing, no good crops will grow. Do you think India's current social status can produce a modern developed country?
The way of the Chinese huge & unprecedented national success in a short 30 years cannot be replicated by or copied by any other country in the World. Because it doesn't depend on one & or a few factors but the entire unique ecosystem of the Chinese culture & civilization evolved, developed & refined continuously for a long period of a few thousands years!
China has a 350% debt to GDP ratio & the real estate sector of 30% of GDP will add to bad debts Having ghost towns is stupid economics & buying a home & a 2nd & 3rd home *because house prices constantly go up* is another example of *stupid economics* & finally producing for the world when just 200 million out of your 1400 million Chinese can afford goods your export is a *another stupid economics example I am convinced Chinese do not know business as a people & race
Casteism in India currently is extremely limited to some remote villages. Also, someone's caste is not an obstacle to prevent them from taking up whatever job they want to do, nor did I see any ofy classmates from the so called Lower Castes facing any discrimination anywhere at school and as such. I think caste is no more a big issue in India.
A wise old man once said ... If you reach a T junction ... There stand a Indian and the other side is a cobra snake ... Then you should walk toward the cobra away from the Indian ...
Haha… understand. I know where you’re coming from. 😂 Anyway, All I know is that they are “三分颜色上大红” . Think too highly once you put a feather on their cap. Very self- exaggerate their worth. 🤪
@@crtordoes All response, reaction and replies are simply product of what they have been conditioned. Bless CCP's Deng Xiaopeng good governance but rise of 'nationalistic hatred' from a 'communist' country makes me remember fascist pretending to be socialist from Germany.
I have many friends in export/import business, and I have asked them what they think of doing business with Indians. They all told me same answer "Don't expect to make a dime with the Indians"
As an indian i can say my country is developing in rapid speed, i know USA and China are far ahead from us, but ey what I see is , we currently doesn't have too much to lose, rather than gaining and growing . And that's a good thing 😊🇮🇳
Hii i am from India... Your analysis is really good... And you pointed out right problem which India has... But the most amazing thing is... The present modi government is working on all the issues You said that you are coming to india... Then you must ask people about govt project.. From sagarmala to bharatmala, gati shakti, logistics policy, ondc, upi, all the infra projects...,dron policy, semicon policy... You will be amazed for sure👍👍
@@jasonchen6942 don't worry, our forefathers might lack Vision while chosing right govt, but not us, As a 21st century GENERATION INDIAN , WE r very clear what's the direction our BHARAT (INDIA) should move in to gather fastest rate of growth😎 Decisions r not easy in a democracy as SELFISH opposition and their ρets r there to oppose everything, but yes, we feel very FREE and HAPPY in democracy JAI HIND💪 more milestones to achieve for our motherland ...🙏
@@gauravchaturvedi6080 In the meantime Australia, Britain, the US, and Canada have job openings for Asians. Britain even gives 100.000 visas to Hongkongers. I'm sure they need Indians as well. I heard they think Hongkong people are hardworking and know British Rules of Law, I'm sure Indians offer the same advantages.
To be honest, as a chinese, I hope India can become the next factory of the world. This can bring us more opportunities to make money. However, the current business environment is too bad in India. Xiaomi today, Apple tomorrow.
I think more people in comment section know a lot about what india can't do, what are it's shortcomings but they still don't have any idea what are the strength of india. India has attain it's peak population so now the population will start declining by a natural process whereas china is facing their one child policy consequences. Moreover geopolitics also play an important role in countries development, but still can't predict as it is very dynamic but china has itself created lots of enemies around itself . So for now india is in more favourable position than china. Also, the democracy may slow down things just like elephant moves slowly but when it moves, it makes an impact permanently. Also india knows the Western hypocrisy and so india also has second move advantage. So as an Indian I am very optimistic. I know some would disagree.
Exactly,I was also quite surprised to see the one sided comments on a good rational video. Is India lagging behind China? Yes...on many aspects, but it is surely moving forward and life of people is changing for better everyday. Any one who visits India and try to observe (other than our poor waste management) will realize so. And I really think that India shouldn't be another China! Progress is essential but not the Chinese or American way!
Love the fact that the whole world still views india the same way it used to do before It's actually an advantage Citizens of other countries don't consider you as a threat and hence no public mandate for their leaders to pursue I hope world keeps on having this view of India since it's obviously not a easy thing to grow when other countries hate you
I'm personally of the opinion that it's actually more difficult to grow when other countries like you, since it stiffles your mindset for growth, which makes you remain in the comfort zone and hence, stagnate. But the citizens of the communist mainland seem to have drowned into so much misinformation and arrogance that it's actually starting to translate into an advantage, I'd rather say let them be drowned in their arrogance, racism and narrow mindedness they have developed by analyzing data from a decade ago.
@@ikkong8436 ohhhh come on Then you really think Indians shit on the roads ?? Really ? And the million tons of other prejudice you guys like to put on us Why do I see foreigners staying in a particular part of Delhi ??? Cause they want to see what they want to see India is literally on a transformation phase I live in a tier 3 city of India but whenever I don't go out of the house for some days or week and then I go out , there's always some new building being built Some kind of project pops out of nowhere Why's that ? Cause we growing And tbh many Indians are content with that , we don't want to beat china or annex your land It's the west and the east's mentality In the thousands of years of history india never invaded because we simply don't feel like it But at the same time it's important we emerge strong coz we have had our fair share of learnings on how you get exploited when you are too content with what you have and don't grow enough
I am from India, and preparing for civil services in India, thus i have a little understanding about things here. Firstly i must say that this video of yours is quite informative and full of useful insight which lot of other might either ignores or simply they don't want to show that, so congratulations in this regard and thanks for doing that. Secondly; some of your inputs are outdated a little, not very much though but a little i.e urbanization, infrastructure, digitization, etc. For instance govt. Back in 2015 started a program called smart cities which is to make 100 cities smart in various aspects including housing, infra, cleanliness, sustainability water and electricity and verious other things. these cities mostly aren't the ones like delhi, mumbai, Chennai etc. Now govt. Expand it to 150 cities across the india, not centred in a region. And also some very major steps has been taken places in regarding other things like skilling up, digitization and infrastructure modernization. Thirdly, everybody in this comment section and out of it quite worrying about the democratic values in India. For that i am simply stating that every country or region is either gone through or going through or going to talk about there basic principles at one point of time. When these talks taking place and it always created a chaos. When it isn't creating it then it is a worrying situation, so in upcoming years if everything goes all right, situation will be far more exciting and productive. I am hopeful about it because the essence of Indian society is always been peaceful and co-existence. Last but not the least, it's never been a race between anything. Atleast from India's perspective. It has never occurred in our history that we are in a race with anything or anyone about anything. We're always been an idea of fulfillment and values and ethics. One can see it in its deplomatic, economic, political and social policies. Oviously in some instances one can see some differences but they are minor when seen in a big picture.
@@greyknightcharpter6689 there nothing good in that (if they're going to hell) holding grudges in your heart and mind will never lets you dream. There is only one way.....Move forward....look forward
@jlin3131 INDIA is not a building my friend @jlin3131, INDIA is an idea. One can sometimes agree with it, sometimes not. It is not necessary to always agree or disagree, there is always a space to let others agree and disagree. Also one can agree with some parts of it. Now about Manipur, yes it's sad, very sad to watch and see the images coming out of it, mothers losing their sons over almost for nothing, childrens orphend and so many other kinds of things happening. One should always feel sad about it. We pray for them. But this is a long awaited struggle which is bound to happen....i don't have sufficient information about it as of now.... because everything is covered with smoke, so let the smoke die down then we can see the full picture of it...
No, - underdeveloped infrastructure - unstable laws especially for foreign investors - still use of banned caste system - underdeveloped supply chain India can only become the next "India"
No, - Fast developing infra: Many metro lines, trains, highways, expressways are developing. - Stable laws for foreign investor: Highest FPI was recorded in August 2022. - Still use of banned caste system? Yes, but only in the education sector. - Fast Developing supply chains: A great national logistics and employment policy. Record high exports and some good startups. Many FTAs to ease global trade partners and customers. India can only become the next "India" just like how it was a few centuries ago. India will never become a country with communism or without human rights. :)
@@drippydrinker96 still having people pooping on streets, lots of uneducated people, declining birthrates, unknown start ups, deeply corrupt and dysfunctional poltiical system, plagued with caste and religious tensions etc india will remain a rotting shithole until it solves their massive internal issues
@@balajib1406 democracy is the culprit that India is keep on fighting internally, just like united snakes of America. 1 decision take years. In communist country 1 decision only take weeks and executable. India you will be super power in.... Never...., you wish... lol 🤣
Not sure how Indians can compete with the Chinese. The Chinese focus on getting things done. Indians indulge in thinking: spiritual pursuit, meditation, whimsical ideas. Democracy brings Indians as much chaos as freedom.
@@msdolly6101981 eating octopus cooked in snail oil. Stealing everything others make. Occupy territories of small neighbours. Build entire un-civilisation around the idea of 'Art of war'. Have a population that follows Indian culture for 2000 years. And then in the name of uniqueness and arrogance, wipe it all out in culture revolution. Help Islam flourish in SE Asia coz them Hindus are taking over (16th CE onwards). Tell the world both countries started equally when clearly, Bharat was divided, brutalised for 1000 years while thyself doubled up territories in 1947. Have a century of humiliation while the other hand a millennium of. And then tell thyself is is a 'survivor'.
There's nothing wrong in spritual philosophies, but we're here talking about Politics. If every single Indian became conscious, then every single one of them would revolt against this colonialist political institutions which are the core reason behind our growth. But Stupidity exists in masses!
@aarnik We don't do, infact we wouldn't have been doing if white people wouldn't have been doing because at that time, we were already brainwashed by colonialist to think everything of native practice as backward, superstitious and unscientific. If we, all of us, every single of us, did intense dhyana for some years, then we will succeed even in this democractic system with colonialist political institutions but it won't happen, because stupidity exists in masses.
@@msutha2120 It's understandable, because you guys have such a neighbour who is much stronger than you in military force and economy, and so much bigger than you in land area. If I were you, I would boycott too.
If Apple want to sell Apple Cell Phones in India, Apple must produce those Cell Phones in India......Not because Apple want to be in India........India are very smart people but due to 1,000's of years of the caste system, most top leaders and upper management are not always the Brightest in the company therefore this creates resentments, not in the beginning but the longer the company exist, the more resentments grows......thus slowing down progress of the company. Even in companies where the top managements are the Brightest, due to existing caste system, worker feels that the management gets their position not through merits but caste class......yeah, India have little more time to catch up............
@@vangcruz4442 caste system is absolutely rubbish indicator of India's development. Caste system has never been an oppressive tool only meant to differentiate between people of different occupational basis which got interlocked due to corruption in the religion. India was world's richest civilization in the past and it will achieve it again. Nobody practices caste system anymore other than a few villagers.
@@deusmachinima1189 very good. Problem is solved.......yes, India was once the richest in the world.... but that was before the caste system were put in place by the Oligarchs of that time. Yes, you may be right about NOBODY practice the caste system anymore but you are not one of the Untouchables Class.........upper caste never have problems with the caste system. .....this is why the Rich introduced the caste system........only Lower and Untouchables caste class have problems........and even though nobody practice it, try and get married to an upper caste class girls.....GOOD luck.....sorry there is no Luck in a claste system.....you are borned into it......LOL
India was founded two years before China,. At that time India's GDP per capita and all infrastructure was twice that of china. According to Western logic, compared to China , India had a perfect democracy, a well-functioning British judicial system, a complete manufacturing industry left behind by the Britain , a perfect financial environment, English was the official language of India, and no country in the world sanctioned and blockaded India, so India should be crushed on all fronts against China . The fact is that by the time Mr. Mao passed away in 1976, China had caught up with India. Since then, the mainland has continued to pull away from India, and China's per capita GDP is now nearly six times that of India. India's development advantage over China has been in place for 75 years. For such a long time, India has not been able to use so many advantages, so why is it suddenly possible now? Shouldn't India and the West take a good look at this? Those who are not afraid to hit their faces can certainly continue to be Indian blow!
Simple answer is no. India has a lot of simple basic problems they can't even solve. Since you're heading to Mumbai, have a look at their roads and sidewalks. Many streets don't have lane markings, no traffic signals at intersections and they have speed bumps on big streets to reduce traffic (so backwards). And their sidewalks are so rundown in poor conditions, you have to ask yourself how can a country with the 5th largest economy unable to solve problems so simple. Their IT is growing only because of the American firms that moved there.
There’s such a thing like private and public road differentiation in India. Most of the public road were tarred but certain area no white lines which became chaotic. Not all private roads were tarred. Some are sandy when dry but turn muddy when it rains.
Mumbai alone has 250+ skyscrapers under construction with it's 250 skyscrapers skyline presently. Similarly all cities in india are recording immense growth, roads in india are improving as well but the distribution is not spread out.
I like how all these Chinese in the comments are so aware of Indias problems that existed in early 2000’s but none of them have any idea what has changed in last 2 decades!! Amazing!!
Too much religion, communalism, democracy (yes). Caste system and a lack of a truly accepted national language. Too much regard for the ways of their former colonial masters. Finally, indians just debate , talk too much and argue ..but oftentimes deliverables suffer.
One person last week told me that the next growth in India is always around the corner...but as soon as you reach the corner, there is another corner...
In India there we are also building small economics in the places so that if big disaster or crises come the small small economics did not get effected because of macro crises.
FORGET CHINA! It is not a question of "INDIA BECOME THE NEXT CHINA". It is almost certain of When, not If, India will leave The Mighty USA in the dust. I believe it is Sooner rather than Later. Never, never UNDERESTIMATE THE INDIANS!
@@eggheadegghead The best possible way for India to get rich quickly is to ask her colonial master to give back all the riches she has taken away. It's 45trillions I heard.
If India and China become very good friends and sign treaties on economic development, bilateral and global peace agreements, educational upliftment for Asia and etc., then it will be a game changer project. Together the Asia can grow faster if India and China become thick friends.
Look akshai chin is a political tool more than anything now and india and china work and even trade in brics as long as a formal border is established india and china are good friends
Hi Pascal, Your argument fails to mention the risk that the West, especially the US, will block India's growth once India's economy threatens to surpass them, as is what is happening now that the US is working against China with all kinds of sanctions and threats along with its allies. Unlike China, which has the unequivocal drive from the center of the one-party system, India with its democracy system will find it very difficult to go against Western sanctions to move forward, as politics can be easily influenced by the West. Think of the well-known tactics such as regime change directed by the West. Therefore, and also due to decoupling and self-sufficient policy that is currently going on in the West, the highest achievable place that India can achieve is the world's third largest economy by 2040.
Seems India is going against the West lately. If you check the vote at U.N. 2 days ago, it is clear India is making decisions for themselves more than ever now.
@@PascalCoppens Just because of this new attitude of India towards the West, the West has now woken up early. The West will therefore take all possible actions against India in order not to make the same mistake again as with China, everything to prevent India from becoming an extra China. As a result, India's economic plans and industrialization will not develop into a global scale. It can be compared to a flute tree whose blossoms bloom too early (India is going against the West now) and are frozen in a night frost (blockades imposed by the West) after which they do not develop into fruit. In other words, in terms of economic dependence, the West will not be warned a second time, and that India will therefore never or impossible to defeat them unless the US and the EU break up.
@@vision9275 India have the second mover advantage and knows what to look out for. West tactic of sanctions means that India needs to expand UPI and have an alt-SWIFT ASAP. It also needs to look at bottleneck tech that the West holds, and work on an alternative.
Something doesn't add up here. From what I understand you said, China is the muscle and India is the brain. So, how come we don't see any high tech product that comes out of India. On the other hand, China mobile phones actually export to India. China have more 5G patents than any other country. China is leader in drone technology, high speed train. Even build a space station on their own. And many more. I think China is both the muscle and the brain.
Greetings from Mumbai-India Pascal-the 1st thing to understand is that India *does not want to destroy our cultivable area* in setting up factories to make cheap products so India is into knowledge exports which are non polluting & our IT service exports will touch 1.5 Trillion US dollars by 2035 from 200 Billion of 2022
I hope and wish India all the best in the future. I'm tired of people around the world talking about China this and China that. It's time for a change, I think Chinese people in China also want to have more privacy and don't want too much attention on their government or people. Looking forward to seeing another better power than the current ones.
@@sjelucten7150 India is *not interested in replacing China-nor do we want to spoil our Environment & Cultivable Land* in making cheap goods for WESTERN countries or the World. It takes 270 litres of water to produce 01 kg of Rice & even though from 14th Sept 2022 -India replaced UK as the 5th biggest economy on PLANET EARTH -it is a fact that as on 14th Sept 2022-just 08 Indians out of 100 own a ceiling fan -so once our per capita consumption increases to 40 FANS per 100 Indians & a 3.4 Trillion GDP increases 25 times to 30 Trillion US Dollars by 2049 totally via internal consumption due to increased per capita purchasing power -we really want our population to get richer & enjoy the fruits of growth etc
Pascal, before making a comparison video between China and india, please spend some time learning about india really well. A lot of the talks about india's super growth, the next China blah blah in the western media was just hype to tap into the india consumer market. They were hoping india's 1.4 billion consumers would pan out for them like China's 1.4 billion consumers. After 2 decades, corporate executives finally realized it's just wishful thinking and American companies left india in masses in 2020. Only their IT sector can grow for now but that industry can't grow forever as the next big wave is AI and 6G. And don't just visit the 3 richest cities in india: Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore to get the full spectrum of the country's development.
@@PascalCoppens I think you will also. I started learning about india 2 years ago myself. Have a look at "Jayant Bhandari's" channel. He's an Indian born and raised in India but now lives in Canada as a financial analyst and has a very strong opinion on India's economic outlook and future. He's very knowledgeable and honest in his opinions.
Unless India fix their class system infrastructure supply chain issues . One thing going against India is climate change . India is a energy importer and cannot build more coal plants due to climate change . They have no space for solar as India is 1/3 size of China and too many people . Other problems are global warming and drought as rivers are drying up . Also supply chain is a problem as they don’t have access to raw materials that China does . China has the bri linking it to the world . India has no bri so getting goods to eu or USA is a problem. India’s geography is not good . It’s in middle of various choke points and far from eu and USA . Many issues
Your analysis is 80-85% correct. I'm Indian and our biggest weakness is diversity. We have too many languages, cultures, differences and political parties to deal with internally which is hindering us. I admire China's growth, I only hope we can learn from them.
Pascal ‘s analysis of these two countries and the comparison between the two economies are just too simplistic and superficial, whereas, such comparisons are far more complex in reality. India’s economy, today , has many structural problems both in the public and private sectors which still have traces of colonial characteristics in their operations. The economic and political transformations from a semi colonial economy to the 21st. century AI & manufacturing nation , like that of China today, would be an enormous task with a very steep learning curve to overcome for India.
Thanks for sharing. On China, I wrote 2 books as it is more complex than can be told in a 40 minute video. I am sure it's the same for India. I welcome any more insights. Thanks
@@PascalCoppens while your commentary on China is generally good, you are woefully underinformed about India. 1. India cannot catch China within the next century (100 years) and that is absolute mathematical certainty. China currently has roughly FIVE (5) times the GDP of India, so India would need to grow an average of 6.5% faster than China over that century. If India only grows 3% faster than China, as you suggested, then they will need more than 200 years (2 centuries) to catch up. 2. India's demographics are terrible. While they have a lot of young people, they are very, very poorly educated compared to their Chinese counterparts. China has a youth population that is roughly equal to that of the West, except that they are better educated and highly motivated to develop China. India has a vastly smaller well-educated youth, and their ultimate life goal is to emigrate to a Western country, further accelerating Indian 'brain drain". The successful Indians who remain in India will be saddled with carrying their less productive countrymen for decades. Indian neglect of human development turns their youths into a demographic millstone. 3. Indian democracy will further slow advancement, just as they do in every democratic country. No democratic country has ever industrialized out of poverty on their own. Taiwan and Korea were military dictatorships. Japan is still a single-party dictatorship. China is a single-party state. 4. The United States will not allow any competitors to grow. When Japan grew, they imposed the Plaza Accords resulting in the Lost Decades. When Germany grew too strong, they forced the Ukraine War. The US has been fighting a hybrid information / economic war against China for the past few decades, and really ramped up with Trump. If/when India ever gets strong, India can expect to see CIA-sponsored color revolutions in Sikkim, etc. that parallel Tibet, Xinjiang and HK. 5. Indian caste culture guarantees Indian failure. Caste is a system of division, and it's drilled into Indians from birth. A country divided by caste cannot unite to become a global power. It is far more likely that India descends into civil war and further Partition than it brings all Indians together over the next century to surpass China.
@Grau Geist - Spot on . Plus the KARMA of the land matters too . Plus Still to this day the masses in India follow superstitious dogma rituals etc . The most racist folks . The list is endless . But all in all,India will always remain the sick man of Asia .
If India wants to catch up with China, it must first review and evaluate its own capabilities: 1. Caste issues; 2. Racial and religious discrimination, exclusion of Muslims, Sikhism, only Hinduism, and one-third of the infidels are excluded; 3. There are still two-thirds of the population who are illiterate, and education needs to be improved; 4. Corruption and bureaucracy are rife all over the world; 5。 Land ownership and even land acquisition is a big issue; 6. There is still a lot to improve in infrastructure, water conservancy, electricity and sanitation. It will take at least 25 years to reach the above problems, and it remains to be seen. most of the intelligence indians ,once they send out of country and study there like USA or other western nations, they will not go back their country to work again, thus we can notice that most of india politicians are not highly educated.
I hope Pascal Coppens will give us his answer on whether "I India could become the next factory of the world" after his visit to India. In my view, this is highly unlikely because the two countries are so different.
In China their women held up half of the sky. Sadly India marginalized their women to the basement so it will be kind of impossible to catch up at all. They got a out to come close only when their women are unchained.
Challenges to overcome for India: - bureaucratic inertia (let’s be honest business are not democracies otherwise they’d never be able to make a business decision) - Integrated supply chain and logistics - Clear laws (not just existence and application of law but equal access and equal remedies) - Equality (social class and sex)
Indian judiciary under the CJI Lalit has created new change of policy, the Judges are being chased to work hard, the British holidays are being cancelled. Criminal LOV, above has mentioned about the Logistic policy. Yesterday India created its own manf 5G network, they expect it to cover end of 2024 across the nation. We are entrepreneurial country, Now wonder all the largest after (500 S&P)USA are from India.
@@tayaramecanici "We are entrepreneurial country, Now wonder all the largest after (500 S&P)USA are from India." that means inequality, which doesn't necessarily mean a good thing. It is really the midclass that is the driving force of the economy, not just a few top rich guys. BTW, India needs really abolish the caste system not just on paper. Just yesterday we learned that there was a little girl beaten to death by her teacher because of her rank. If a society cannot be totally inclusive, there will always be a large number of people lagging.
@@nid-jk2vx I am not Chinese but I am sure life of Uighurs is much better than yours. I never heard Uighur women were raped on streets but often read such reports on India women in our media. India is famous for that in the world. BTW, what about the life of Untouchables? I heard just recently there was a girl beaten to death by her teacher because of her low caste. What is your caste? You must be very proud of it, don't you?
No ! India can never compete with China's production of a-z things from simple toys, electronic stuff to Commercial Aircrafts. India will be India. India may shine in certain areas .. but as such half the Indian population is still living with the most basic necessities of life. As an Indian, I would like India to solve first India's own problems before trying to play a big game in the World Arena. (Many may disagree with me !)
I fully agree with Kerala ...put your own house in order before going on world stage...India has been getting all attention lately because of the geopolitics between Russia..China..US and EU... making the importance of India more prominent in world affairs...
india's main problem is its politics,coumminsts systematically brainwashed majority population through various means like education,media,movies ,influencers .they are against change of political economy only in 1991 free market reforms were introduced,even now if govt wants to bring reform they will oppose.people are not aware of these conspiracy,they might geting funding from China, West to stall the growth of India by stopping industrialisation by creating hurdles in land acquisition, labour unrest ,Indian conditions are not feasible for increasing scale of production and there by competitive pricing with Chinese manufacturing .various laws not allow companies to become big.then how can small and medium industries can compete in manufacturing with other countries where with the scale cost of production comes down.gradully communist hypocrisy exposed to people ,they are becoming irrelevant but they still have control of media,education sector ,judicairy,influencers .so it will take time .China and West funds these communist hypocrites. example Narmadha river dam was started decades ago but due to these communists and Their movement it was halted for 3 decades.now it was allowed by courts.many areas got water after this much delay.those hypocrites became millioners with funding from outside.new government banned about 10000 NGO s which are getting money and doing these kind of works?
Keralaforum lmao get ur facts right first..india already increased its production of toys and now os major exporter, than importer now. And where did u get this imaginary figure half of india lives below poverty line?
@@lutappidhakini6166 Fool. Emotions and pseudo-nationalism solve nothing. China has developed a Boeing-like commercial plane. Chinese electric cars are already marketed in Europe. In the USA and Europe, one goes to any shop - clothe, sports shoe , electronic stuff - one sees only either Made in China or Made in South Korea ..We don't see even 5% Indian stuff. Once I see at least 5% Indian stuff, then I can change my opinion.
Pascal you might be interested in Lee Kuan Yew's opinion. He thought that India will never catch up to China, because of it's social and governance structures. The social structure is pre industrial, and the governance is british! Not that India can't change them, but it will be extremely painful, as in China. It is doubtful that India has the wherewithal to go through that.
It's a pity LKY is no longer with us to contribute to his vision. Before Soeharto of Indonesia was toppled by rioting students and IMF/World Bank, LKY called Soeharto's daughter to step down as a hero who help develop his country, but his daughter didn't dare to advise her father who is a dictator, he was encouraged to continue his presidency. His wife died and nobody could advise him and the consequence is he was gotten rid off by his countrymen backed up by of course foreign forces (everyone knows which forces). LKY was a man of great vision, which his son doesn't have.
@@scy3894 --- Modi is a Hindu Fanatic oppressing Indian Muslims to win the Hindu vote. A so called democracy where beef is banned and "The Cow Vigilantes Rule".
Only thing comparable between India and China is the huge population, all other differences are just too huge, from ethnic makeup, a single national language, political system, work ethics, religion adherence, unity, history, land ownership, etc. India will not rise like China, and will have to find her own path of development, and will be much more haphazard without the benefits of long term planning!
Rubbish. India and china were top economies and india was 24% of world gdp before british colonised it and made it poor. India will rise just like china.. but more democratically
@@hungoh2801 i've been to India twice a handful of years ago. my GF said once was enough for her. there were blackouts everywhere we visited, even Delhi.
India will be India please dont compare us with anyone, we are rising from ashes the british left us with and now we are ahead of UK's economy in just 75 Years. Offcourse we have a long way to go but India's rise is Unchallenged
I guess you probably missed one very important fact that is in order to catch up with China or the US, India needs the same-sized housing market. Without it, it would be very difficult to catch up with both China and the US.
a. We must use modesty and humility when addressing a country. No person can judge a nation. b. Of course India can't become China- but they can achieve greatness and success - their own way. c. Like people, countries have their limitations, which hinder their progress. They must have the courage to face these limitations.
In this talk Pascal is kind of native. I do not think India automatically has huge advantages simply because of English speaking (only by educated Indians) and the democracy system (only sometimes works). I think India's dream of world factory is largely uncertain because (i) a couple of competitors at the same level exsit, such as Indonesia, and (ii) India does not have much critical mineral resources, and it relies heavily on external energy.
@@PrithaBhowmick-cb1cz India now has the opportunity to take over all the huge amounts of oil and gas that Russia used to supply to the West. The only problem is the transportation routes. For the best options India needs a pacified Afghanistan and newtral of friendly Pakistan.
One thing both countries are doing really well is reforestation. Both countries should cooperate because frankly they have more in common than the West prefers to advertise. Russia is a massive gain for India and China. Its exactly the new supply of cheap energy needed to keep the industrial growth of both countries going as they switch towards green energy. Ditto food security. Russia can also provide both countries with agriculture as global warming may provide more arable land in Russia.
People ask why almost 98% of online scammers are based in India, In the 90s India has a huge Call Centre business going on, many western companies would set up call centers in India because Indians knew to speak English properly( atleast could be understood by the western public)...In the 2010's when Call Centers began shifting out of India into countries like Philippines and Thailand, The Indian Call Centers became jobless and took on scamming as their work to gain money to feed their families...Its Sad that Indian Govt and Police Forces do not take much action against them...But these people never had the intention to scam innocent people but were forced to do when they lost their call center jobs...
Simon King, you should learn about India's culture. Under their Caste System, the Brahmins are at the top and most wealthy people in India running the country while the Dalits are at the bottom. You should see the atrocities being committed to people simply because they are considered as Dalits. The reason why India is so bad is because of the rich people their and the level of inequality. much like here in America where the 1% controls everything but on steroids in india.
Hi Pascal, Thank you so much for your work. I just watched this video now. I do tend to agree with 80% . I led engineering (manufacturing) teams both in India and USA for more than 3 decades total. I hired people in India and worked on several state of art innovative projects. One thing that I completely disagree is about caste system. Now mostly people don't believe in the caste system but it does exist now only because for political gains and quota systems. Although caste is a western construct but in India it was basically based on ancestral trades and businesses like smith, carpenter, leather, pottery, hairdressing, dairy, farming etc. But after independence all these so called lower castes have been given quota (which is now allocated 60% in federal and about 70-80% in states) both in government jobs as well as all public Institutions, colleges, Universities. This has resulted them leaving their ancestral trades and assuming relatively well paid public jobs having 100% job security and pension (no one can fire or lay off). This quota system is so much abused that even a multi millionaire from this category is eligible to avail the quota benefit while an extremely poor and talented kid from so called upper caste will have to compete very hard in the leftover general category. No government can scrap this reservation policy, because they will loose votes and can't come back in power ever again. Actually in every election all political parties double down their commitment on quota. These folks generally speaking hardly want to work in any business corporations which is not owned by government. So their participation on non-governmental corporations is meagre. Personally interviewed so many candidates but hardly find them applying for private or public listed corporations. As regards women participation, it's already happening at rapid pace and they were traditionally too used to contribute more in un-organized sector.
The caste system is not limited to your class，You are middle class but most Indians are proletarian，Did you forget that the Indian constitution states that India is a socialist country?
Is india a rich country? NO. So poor people are much more than rich people.nearly 80% . So instead of 60% reservation for lower castes,if they change to 60 % reservations for poor.,that party will be in power for next 20 years. So its a lie to say to cancel caste based reservations will end political careers.
@@common-sense99 Please come out of this socialist and leftist mindset ... no one whether poor or rich, lower or upper castes or on the basis of creed , race, religiosity etc. should ever be given reservation or any opportunity whether job or education, period. Now let me handle the leftist question (the poor card)... anyone can pursue any opportunity through education and hard work so why they should be given preference over others just because his or her parents are poor. If there is financial difficulty paying college tuition then get education loan and pay back later. Why tax payer should fund education of someone and especially if the person is older than 17 years.
@@SK-gh4cf i agree with you.i am no leftist.but a realist. Caste based reservations served their purpose and no longer required. Ages pass and ones descendends will belong to same caste.so if caste is basis for reservations ,then they can never be removed and the caste people will resist its termination but if economic state is basis for reservation as the beneficiaries become rich ,their children cannot avail it and so they want it terminated and as country becomes developed,slowly the beneficiaries become minority and it will be automatically abolished. Try studying or getting education loan when you don't have food to eat and no bank gives loan to poor kids.
@@common-sense99 Thanks for clarifying your point. But I am not too convinced. All sorts of reservation programs are evil. Anyone once turned 17 years is no more a kid. The education (degree programs) are not meant for everyone. If someone has a passion for specific field of study and have no money to pay for tuition then get the loan and payback when employed. Its so simple. But why should any taxpayers or parents pay for anyone's college degree ? If one can't earn enough to pay back education loan then that degree is absolutely useless. India needs skilled people and not degreed people. Second one can pursue their academic goals later in life when they become self sufficient to pay tuition. They can acquire skills (welder, carpenter, electrician, hairdressing, farming, masonry, crafting, technician, material handler, chef etc.) and make a living.
Thank You for being a "bridge builder, peace ambassador, and man of good will". Your factual and nonconfrontational presentations, podcasts, interactions are effective and well received. You educate without condemning or condescending. I am a "super senior" in the USA who knows the consequences of War vs Peace. I think you help move the audience more towards Peace. For this, I am grateful.
The so called democratic process is a con factor in economic development: what India needs is a powerful central government which could pool the resources of the country and take effective and efficient actions to implement sensible plans solidly. The 10 km HSR after five years story reflects all the weakness in the system that needs improvement.
I think India needs a leader who cares about all Indians regardless the race, caste, or religion. Now the current PM is very divisive. He plays divide and rule, Divide et Impera just like his colonial master. Modi should learn from Indonesian president, Joko Widodo, the best president for a democratic country.
India have a lot of talented youngsters. But their politician corruption is beyond control. India need to fix it before even talk about becoming 2nd world biggest economic.
Simple answer, as a Indian .. we never thought it’s our own country.. we damaged it in all aspects…( corruption, dirty, religion , cast, language ).. no cohesion among people
For the U.S. to decouple from China is supposed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. If that moves to other countries like lndia, the situation will just deteriorate for the U.S and Americans won't let that happen.
Dude, there is no way you can bring mid to low end manufacturing back to U.S. Its not possible!! Not enough people to work, quality worker who possess good work ethic. TSMC was forced by the United States to set up factories in the United States to make high-end chips. Look at what the chairman of TSMC said, the cost of manufacturing plants in the United States is as high as 50 percent, the operating yield is also very low, and the staff is insufficient. No one wants to work overtime. Us investment manufacturers are losing money, TSMC because of US capital. So they were forced to move to the United States, but in fact it is losing money. Even high-end manufacturing is a failure, how can low-end manufacturing be possible. May I ask where the material comes in? Here in the United States? Does that raise costs? Is there a manufacturer that processes these materials? The United States does not have the capacity to process rare earths, and 70 percent of the world's rare earth processing comes from China, the vast majority of metal materials processing comes from China. This is not only the increase of labor costs, but also the improvement of all material processing and development. No company, including an American one, would do that unless it wanted to go out of business. Even if we move to India, Vietnam, material processing and import are all imported from China, but it is the lowest terrace assembly in India.
India will not catch up to China for at least 50 years from today... China speed in one year India needs 10 years... do your calculation... 10 years from now the gap will become wider between China and India .. when you want something said ask India and when you want something done ask China.. India rely too much on IT intellectual which no tangible assets to move forward.. India will have to compete with emerging countries in Vietnam..Laos..Philippines.. African countries..Latin American countries...China has already laid out the foundation to move its factories today to these emerging markets.via BRI... US and EU markets are contracting and their economies are in shambles... India will have to compete with others... China has already set up its dual circulation to offset any future market turmoil.. India will face an acute food deficiency in the next 5 years which will jeopardise its progress...
@RELIGION IS THE BIGGEST LIE India was a grain exporter but for the last two years they are importing to substitute for net loses in grain production ..... come next five years in view of climate change... increasing fertilizers cost... water shortages .increasing population .... decreasing yield grain production India will face a huge task to feed its population.. poor infrastructure and poor grain storage also contribute to grain wastages....
@RELIGION IS THE BIGGEST LIE Don't you follow the news? Just this year India banned rice exports 2 times because of costs. And their population is still growing meaning more mouths to feed.
@RELIGION IS THE BIGGEST LIE - India also has exceedingly high level of malnutrtion, hunger and stunting precisely because they export so much food. The average Indian is getting even shorter whereas the average Chinese is now as tall as the average American.
Honestly, I do hope India becomes the largest economy to surpass US and China. In this case, the US will take its eye of the Modor away from China and let China continues to develop its own path and take care of its own people. That will be a win-win situation for both India and China.
@jlin3131 🤣🤣🤣🤣 only 1% live in extreme poverty & till 2025 extreme poverty in India will be 0.1 & In India Women are called as Goddess, I think u must have seen some accidents in backward area but they also don't treat man Better. Short weight babies 😂😂 I don't wtf is this. What influence u r talking Indian Diaspora is everywhere, UK's PM is Indian, USA's VP is Indian,Purtgal's PM is Indian, many Indian origin are MP in Parliament of US,UK, Australia, Canada & many countries. Alphabet, Microsoft & many more top companies CEO's are Indians, NASA has 30% Indian scientists, INDIAN scientists, doctors & engineers are everywhere leading the world, While Chinese Diaspora is negligible outside China, I think u have 0% knowledge about India go and collect some data first
@jlin3131 LoL China itself f it's companies like Ali baba & Jack Ma 🤣🤣🤣🤣 plus torture US companies since decades now India is giving justice by throwing out Chinese companies from India, only very High Technology companies are allowed.
Sir, Iam INDIAN just now watched this video. Great analysis,good suggestions, Sorry to say I think even an Indian also not analyz like you sir. Our politicians and Bureaucrats must watch this. . . Waiting for your next video. 🙏
India will never become the next China for many reasons..1 .. culture difference which Chinese were very productive and Indian not.. 2 ..Language barrier with India have over over 300 languages with Hindi not wildly spoken throughout the country , whereas for Mandarin were wildly spoken in China ..3 .Chinese very hardworking and eager to learn which the Indian not really..4 ..Many top Chinese elite were serving China while Indian top elite were serving US and UK..,therefore how India is going to rise with their top talents serving US and UK ...5 ..India with very lousy infrastructure which the railways system come with different sizes for many provinces 6 ..Taxation with provinces ...My take is that India can't replace China as the next manufacture hub..
India's infrastructure has been developing rapidly since the last decade along with it's military expenditure and equipment. The population of skilled workforce, huge gdp growth rate having recently overtaken uk tells you otherwise. India will be a superpower on par with china whether you like it or not, india has been the world's sole superpower in it's ancient history for a thousand years contributing 25% to the world's gdp.
@@deusmachinima1189 That's what you think, however everyone have a pair of eyes to see for themselves whether India infrastructure have improved or not.
Development is dynamic, and things change. 1 - Culture can be incentivized and change in a generation. China now having a lay-flat & let-it-rot problem. 2 - India can always implement an official language like English or Modern Standard Hindi 3 - Generalization, a lot of US Company CEOs are Indian 4 - China also had a brain-drain problem, talent will go where the money & opportunities are. India needs to provide more employment opportunities and move up the value chain, and the problem will fix itself. 5 - India is also building infrastructure at a breakneck pace 6 - Don't know enough about its tax structure to comment. I know it's very corrupt
@@villageidiot8194 4. China also had a brain drain. That was 10 years ago. Today more and more scientists and engineers are moving back to China due to spying accusations.
@@PascalCoppens Hi Pascal, probably you can have a more statistical conclusion. And I'm interested to know how nationalism would affect the nation's performance also. I take it as a double sided sword. Thanks.
Dont think I agree with his optimistic picture of India catching up with China. India is bogged down with too many issues and cannot even in 100 years be like what China is today. India has religious, cultural racial and political issues which it cannot overcome. Unlike CHina, India is to divisive with its various caste and religious differences. Unless this can be overcome there is no prospect India can even reach China status in the next decade.
Also British wealth was the money looted from India. Industrialization and USA was developed by British with Indian Wealth, approximately 45 Trillion Dollars
Another very good comprehensiveness review of the situation by Pascal. However I would point out that many of the factors cited by Pascal had always been pointed out in analysis from as far back as a5-20 years ago. In history the variables affecting the rise and fall, both economically and geopolitically, are generally the same. It is the reactions to mix and qualitative character of the variables that will determine history. Some factors not talked about in this analysis is China's BRI, the rise of Eurasia as an entity, De-desertification impact of China, climate change, and many others. Demography is a factor that is overrated - downfall of the Malthus and starvation. If population is a great factor - England should have never arisen. Demography was overcome by guns, slavery, and colonization. The new slave and colonial subject is the robot and AI. Eegardless of human efforts, Pandemic has already future economic and geopolitical future of many nations. The future has yet to be written.
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One thing which is very sure is India will become India . It doesn't need to next China but it will be a future India where you will find everything not just economic but also great social life. We are growing and will grow fast. It is in our DNA. We are just reclaiming our position. It will happen. Maybe little late but it will get there
For India to develop better, it must first establish good integrity, from government to individuals。In fact, my biggest impression of the Indian government and people is that they are untrustworthy and risky to work with
Dear Pascal, While I seriously listen to what you have been speaking for the past years, I found that your analysis of India vs. China is off the mark. Briefly my reservations are (1) you said that the demographics of India is favorable compared to China as the population growth of India far exceed that of China: having a much bigger population growth without healthcare, job prospect, community support, government support will lead to disaster rather than any hopeful phenomenon (2) the kind of infrastructure that is in existence in India currently is a nightmare for investors, let alone in catching up with China, eg in highway from New Delhi to Accra, there were camel carts, tricycles, breakdown bikes, cars, badly maintained buses & lorries, cows lying in the middle of roads, etc. (3) the case system will never be able to be eradicated and is a hindrance to progress (4) massive social problems eg corruption of whichever levels, rapes, robbery, enforcement etc. (5) the educational system where buying of degrees are rampant (6) a pseudo-democracy where it serves no purpose in a poor and corrupted society (7) most glaring of all Indians generally talk a lot than actually doing works/things of substances. Pascal, at the end of the day while some of your understanding of China and the Far East are insightful yet there is much of your analyses do not hold water
1. As China is a aging population...all the production will shift to india as we more worker 2. Every yr the fdi is keep on increasing China will destroy a town just to make a road ..India is democracy and we care for our our citizens 3.? 4.china as more social problem because people have no right ...they can't even critisize their own govt 5. Yet the leading ceo of all major company are indian and india export 200 billion form it it sector... proves there is no lack of quality 6. Lol nonsense we have electron voting system...we cannot be rigged. 7. Yep largest digital transaction ..China is way behind. You have very Poor understanding about india .
It’s possible but it’s very hard bc of some many reasons 1.rigid government policy 2.infrastructuren 3. Supply chain issue 4. Communal conflict 5. Too much corruption
As a indian i would say india can be next china because of current good government of modi and many other educated central ministers. As far Chinese government has started the problem of invasion of Taiwan and towards india but no other countries fight against china like how india do and That's what Biden found india as a KEY PARTNER against china in Taiwan issue. The project called aatmanirbhar Bharat (self reliant india or make in india) has become successful as Modi innaguated it 2021 but within one year , he knows only private industries can develop nation. So he given full power to them especially defence industries and demand other countries to establish their factories in india . That's why now india holds rank 1 in IMF, first country to produce more than 100 million vaccine and supplies to world, made world's most deadliest lch (prachand lch ) and now new upgrade of tejas with Brahmos ng has beat the Chinese airforce rank and now india holds rank 3. Because of china, the world is recognised india and our nation is 45% developed, 51% developing and 4% underdeveloped according to current data of indian government. Luckily india beat British economy, so because of this india is now A BIG HEADACHE to china . Great video sir. U explained some points that i don't know also. I appreciate for that ❤️
Lots of Chinese here predicting Indian future... Please do a prediction about the Wuhan VIRUS ending in CHINA too... Because it ended almost from all over the world but china 🤣🤣 Shows how good are their medical capabilities And yes USSR too had boosted about themselves 🤣🤣
On the geopolitical side, China is catching up to the US. If India is catching up to China, it is natural for India to catch up to the US. How would the US respond? How would India respond to the response?
I believe we have seen a glimpse of that since war in Ukraine...they don't follow blindly what US expects them to do. Of course, that could change as they become a threat to US.
@@PascalCoppens Mr. Pascal I watched your video for the first time today and even saw the comments. I usually used to believe that my Indian friends are emotional but I see the nationalistic fervor in chinese as well. Well, if you are coming to India for a world class city, you will definitely be dissappointed. Also the inequality is huge in India. Just bear one thing in mind that for a democratic and diverse country like India, change isn't as fast. That's one of the downside of the democracy
@@PascalCoppens See, India have boarder issues with China and Nothing with USA, American and Indian people have many similarities (Democracy , Speaks English) Communist party of China will always exist but one day will come , a new friendly Russian president will come who will be friendly to Europe. USA friends like Israil , Japan, France, UAE, Britain, and Austrailia are also friends of India.
@@PascalCoppens Can India be the next Bangladesh? It is questionable. In South Asia, of course, Bangladesh is outclassed by its giant neighbor, India, and its former mother country, Pakistan. However, now things have changed. Its economy is growing fast and convincing. Since 2015, the country is growing faster than many countries in the world. The average growth (before the pandemic) was 8%, while in 2020, when almost all countries are in recession, Bangladesh continues to grow at a positive 3.8% (according to IMF estimates. Judging from World Bank data, in 2021 Bangladesh's per capita income (US$ 2,503) has surpassed India's (US$ 2,277). It looks like this trend will continue for years to come and India will be left behind. This certainly came as a surprise to many Indians, as in 2015 India's per capita income was still around 40% higher than Bangladesh's. This news is certainly not easily 'accepted' by the Indian public, who 'still' think that their neighbor (Bangladesh) is a poor country that has been sending cheap and uneducated workers to India. It may be that, in India, and in many other countries in the world, whatever is good about Bangladesh is under-reported, while what is bad always has a place in the international media. Bangladesh's impressive economic success in recent years has taken many by surprise, and has now become the subject of discussion in the western, Indian and Chinese media.
Mr Coppens, I am an Indian residing in Mumbai. There are things which western people don't understand about India. China wants to prove things to the world they are consumed by a desire to exonerate themselves from the humiliation of being subjugated. Indians are made of a different fibre. We forget the past and focus on sustainable growth. Growth for rapid growth is not really that important for India. What's important is steady growth and sustainable growth addressing inequality and without destroying the ecosystem. I don't think India wants to be like China. Manufacturing will kill farming, pollute our water and destroy our culture. Capitalism and corruption has ensured that the inequality is the largest in the world. Lastly, think about a simple thing - India has maintained a steady growth of about 7--8% GDP and Inflation has been around 7%. So nominal GDP is about 14-15% and if that continues for another 15 years India will grow from $ 3 Trillion to about $ 15 - 20 trillion GDP. If we don't destroy ourselves with a blistering pace this will be quite good. I listened to your video with some interest. You might be right about some things but also a lot of myths and a lot of canards...plus you missed some other important points. I wish you luck and a good time in India. Welcome to India. 🙏
India can never be like China and visa versa .. China adopted Buddhism from India and it become a part of Chinese culture but unfortunately Buddhism was not a part of Indian culture ,,, Buddhism was at it zenith during the reign of Asoka the Great but decline after that... there are two classes distinction of Indian in India...one that posses the knowledge of English while the others did not... the earlier tends to portray a sense of privilege and aloofness against those that are not proficient in English...India also are experiencing a brain drain problem where all those good brains are migrating to US /UK and Western countries ....
@@CarpsterKing India and Indians have no need to compare ourselves to others. If you Chinese feel you are superior to Indians or that Indians are inferior to Chinese in both cases you haven't understood what Buddha taught. Buddhism is derived from Hinduism and inherits almost 80-90% of its ethos from Hinduism. About the rest of the myths you propound, there is an old Americanism - what do you get when you mix chocolate chips with bullshit? No matter what you do it's still bullshit!
@@jessehorstman I don't think we Indians would judge whether the West is good or East is good. The basic idea is to be contented, grow at a steady pace and make sure that we are in harmony with our Ecosystem. If that happens we are happy. We don't want to be in a race with others. We just want a roof over our heads, food on the table and decent clean clothes to wear. As long as we can sustain this kind of existence with a lot of greenery around us we will be happy.
@@CarpsterKing here comes a chinese using vpn and giving opinions on youtube... Go and watch billi billi or other ccp regulated media this is not for you .... 😂
Well 1. Vodafone didn't succeed because the better companies like jio and airtel provided better,cheaper services 2. Ford, Mac donalds and others because India has its homegrown brands which outperformed these foreign peers
@@balajeepratham8200 "Ford, Mac donalds and others because India has its homegrown brands which outperformed these foreign peers" less inclusive or nationalism.
If India wants to compare with China, it should first solve the problems of land reform, caste system, basic and higher education, unified language and power of central government,after we can talking about it
Lots of talk about India's IT prowess. I'm curious what software India is renowned for or if their tech companies have proprietary software or run their own big platforms like Google, Baidu, Tencent, Weibo etc? Does anyone know?
I have retired for a long while and so my experience will be outdated. A lot of software development including coding and testing were out-sourced to India, sometimes an entire system and sometimes components.
@JoJoKoKo UK That network is managed by the biigest scammer ever - Narendra Modi When Covid ravages India, they reported a total of 4,000 deaths/month, where ONLY ONE State of India reported 40,000 death certificates in 5 months
@@joestki There you see, India still do not have propriety software and platforms. The next wave are 6G, AI and quantum technology which China is one of the leading country unlike India who has not made any headway in these new technologies and so whatever India has now will be obsolete soon.
This video is a little longer, but then again it is a big topic. I also wanted to make up for not sharing videos these past 2 weeks. ;-)
As explained at the end of my video, I will be posting Pascal's China Lens every other week now instead of weekly as I am travelling too much since the travel restrictions have been lifted in most countries. I might make some short videos on location if that is of interest? Do let me know.
Take care. & Thank you.
Shall comment next time, but this was such a nicely structured commentary! Thanks.
India is still a dirt poor agrarian country with a deeply dysfunctional and corrupt political system
Thier birth rates are falling and are also losing my majority of their STEM talents to western nations
The answer is no
In my opinion you would be extremely disappointed by how underdeveloped and impoverished india really is
It is pure hype at best
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India not targeted by US yet not because they have democracy but the American don't see them as a threat, however once the India begin to rise to US the narrative will change immediately and it will be interesting to see how India cope up with the western sanction...Therefore we will see how India tackle with those western sanction which in my opinion that the Indian might not able to handle as well as their Chinese counterpart ...
Exactly, the US targetted their allie Japan and new is killing the EU in order to stay ahead. So, democracy my foot!
The only reason the US not treat them as a threat because India isn't the second largest economic body! If the US can crashing Japanese economic they would do the same to India rather they are democracy or not!
It has nothing to do with democracy. Only power matters to the US.
UK will create a FTA with India by 24th Oct'22 or there abouts. The speed of the Indian economy growth will see it top most in Health, Pharmaceutical, Renewables, Auto-mobile manf, Digitisation of economy (40% of $3.6T eco), Military manf. Indians are good in Aerospace too. SCO will take away the lands of the STAN countries to manf low Indian companies, the ME will be the customers of these Muslim countries, AI will change education in these Muslim countries. USA will be seeing it's KARMA coming back. The USA, Latin America will be struggling their Christian KARMA and whilst AUKUS kicks it a back on behind OF China. With Xi Jinping 'controlling a digital china' without any muscle to stand against a Strong Indian defence, the Chinese will "Lie back" .
US will not allow another peer competitor from the Wolfowitz Doctrine. India's democracy is more vulnerable to US NGO meddling to stifle progress. A lot of countries have accused US of political meddling using its NGOs to incite violence, like Thailand, Mexicans, Ecuador, Nicaragua, etc to stifle progress.
The rise of China in very short period, is what the humanity had never seen or heard of. They have achieved it by hard labour and not by hypocrisy or colonisation or by exploiting others. All have to accept it and appreciate China.
China achieved its rise through hardwork, trade, investment, development and co-operation.
From : Singapore 🇸🇬🤠
Totally disagree with your saying the US/West likes or prefer to do business with India rather than China because India is a democracy. This is nonsense. India has been a democracy since they gained independence from Britain about 50 years ago. Why is it only now that the West prefers to do business with India? What took them so long?
Just wait till China surpasses US becoming number 1 while US is downgraded to number 2. Would the US and the West still support India to surpass them and catch up to China? or most likely you find US/West start supporting the different religious, ethnic factions in India to rise up with colour revolutions, wars and chaos like they did to the middle East or what they have been doing to China with Taiwan, Xinjiang, HK, and Tibet. India then get broken up into small useless puppet states of the West.
The West has propagandize and make democracy out to be some kind of beacon, the best ever. No it is not. Democracy is a nightmare for many because at its root, democracy is a divide n conquer technique where people are divided into different groups/parties, all fighting each other wasting time, money, effort, and resources. It is a system that benefits a few elites at the the expense of the mass of population. Every few years the country goes into a civil war in which the top few goes in for a power grab. It creates conflict and instability. As soon as someone gets elected, the losers could band together to undermine the winner. Nothing ever get done or resolve. The few handful of Western countries and the US/Canada etc were rich and successful is because they were living off the fat of their ancestors colonial days and living in debt. How many democracies are there in the world, and how many of them r actually successful, prosperous n stable? If democracy were so good, then India, Latin America, and many other poor, third world countries would be well ahead by now.
Most democratic countries are failures.
All the leaders of the world are queuing up begging to do business with China. All the CEO of big corporation of the world including US are salivating to go into Chinese market for a share of Chinese prosperity!
Very good, truthful, factual and great analysis 👍🏼👍👍🏻
Keep it up !!!
When China is No. 1, US No. 2 and India No. 3, US will sanction India to the stone age.
How many autocratic are there where wealth is distributed to all and everyone is rich except when their unlimited wealth is coming out of the ground
China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong are doing very well in terms of economic development. They all belongs to the same Confucius cultural sphere. The names the people in these countries are all written in Chinese characters and they all use chopsticks for eating. Even the Chinese living in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam are very rich. Confucius culture plays a role in promoting economic development.
I would say God bless the Chinese people and they prospered.. Their goid deeds are written in the Bibble.
I am Chinese. Thank you for the detailed analysis and comparison between China and India in this video. I hope that India and China will return to their rightful positions in their respective histories as soon as possible. Although the two countries have large populations and industrial competition, I still believe that these two countries will lead the world economy to become the two most powerful economies in the future.
It is refreshing to see a non controversial comment from a Chinese.. usually it goes like China best India in the dumps ..
I too have a very similar feeling that the two ancient civilizations need to earn their rightful place back. Nature has separate our geographies enough for us to coexist and not be enemies.
Both Indians & Chinese Are One Of The Oldest & Richest Civilisation Alive On Planet.
Together They Can Grow Very Huge & Bring Prosperity & Peace To The World.
American & European Continent Have Come Out Of Acute Poverty.
Still, We Have African & Asian Continent To Help The Population Overcome Poverty & Provide The Basic Needs At Low Cost.
It’s Responsibility Of India & China Majorly.
China Really Needs A Better Leader Than Xi For Global Peace.
India & china should sort out the border issues and work to advance their economies .they can become two major super powers . Which can benefit both .
@@ilasawjani443 😅
Chinest communist
Party be like : what but we are planning it see west( Kashmir) helping paxistan cuz now it's hard to expand east( tiwan,)
True they can grow together too. There is a lot of demand in this world and room for both these countries to shine...
Lee Kuan Yew once said " No one single person can change India ".
It wasn't competition that gave western countries the edge.
It was Empire and colonialism.
You have got the history totally wrong.
Also slavery
"It was Empire and colonialism."
Both of which China still has!
China is still an Empire with Emperor Xi at its helm. None of the Chinese emperors in the past EVER had the power and reach of Emperor Xi.
Tibet was COLONISED around the same time as European powers were colonizing as well. The MAIN difference here is that Europeans have given up on colonies a long time back, but China is still hanging on to its colonies by controlling them in the WORSE ways than a former colonizer.
Empire and colonialism came into existence because of competition.
Aslo "Brain drain"
Not every country can replicate China's success. A country's success is dependent on many factors, not least human factors such as intelligence, culture, capacity for hard work and skill.
you nail it!
BUT WHY WOULD INDIA LIKE TO REPLICATE CHINA...INDIA IS ONE OF THE OLDEST CIVILIZATION IN THE WORLD!!India will carve out it's own path .
Tuppence Worth
Vietnam could because Vietnam is like a province of China
That's why u stifled democracy tortured people and theft intellectual property of other country not allow foreign companies to compete with open free and fair competition
@@allowedme But Viet doesn't have the resources and industrial infrastructures as China has. China has a lot of raw materials and doesn't need to rely on imports, but Viet can't, so the cost would be totally different.
Me as a Chinese never think China and India are rivals, historically both ancient countries complement each others well both culturally and economically. We share similar memory of suffering from western imperialism and endeavor the alleviation of poverty and get back to its rightful geopolitical status on the world stage. My best wishes to my Indian brothers and lets work together the rejuvenation of an Asian Era rather than fighting over who is stronger than whom . Raise you hand if you agree with me !!
OMG you are so true, i think the same, only if china not poke India on loc and Arunachal Pradesh.
Together India and China can do so much, why fight when we have many more things to solve?
Just give us back our land from the Northern territory. Then there won't be any reason for grudge!
Absolutely true at people to people level. Unfortunately, Xi has other ideas
Modi first invited Chinas XiJinPig to India after winning in 2014 and also in 2019. But Xi betrayed him thinking Modi is papu like rahul. Today Xi has burnt his fingers chineese themselves are not believing him
Xi also did biowar Covid war in the world and invited anger from across the world. Japan and Australia and SouthEastAsia was threated by Xi so they all are waiting to damage china
I'm an Indian and as much as I would love to see India grow and transform, we are still very behind in most of the things when compared with China or USA. Don't know what the future of this country would be, but we can only hope for it to be the best.
I have been to India business related and was uncomfortable with the caste system.
@@kwask6062 😂 pls don't lie. It's illegal to openly be castist. There is rather class system which is more prevalent than open caste system.
@@kwask6062 Expected a better comment from you 😂
@@kwask6062 Haha If went for buisness then why disturbed with caste system. Gandmra jhoota
@@kwask6062 You can't afford to travel anywhere outside your parent's house.
as a foreigner recently visited India..I can say that India is seriously focusing on infra..when I googled I found out that they are already building 28 expressways and they recently introduced logistics policy to reduce infra issues
I recently visited lndia. So many lndians still ride on bullock-carts with no access to toilets
@@aburetik4866 ride on bullock carts ??
Are you serious ??? 🤣🤣
Well being a piece of shit doesn't require logic I guess
@@aburetik4866 so do many Chinese and even Americans homeless. What's your point?
@@aburetik4866 Did you come to India to only go to the jungles to see what progress is happening there instead of the cities? LOL 🤣🤣🤣
@@spambotjk7048 I visited lndian cities. That's what I saw
Democracy, instead of being an advantage for India, is India's major setback. Look at Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong and even Japan. Which one did not have centralized administration during their upward development phase. Semblance of democracy came after certain degree of successful developments. Western actions to isolate and disengage from China only motivate China to become self-reliance. China has no choice. Look at nuclear developments, space station, luna and martian exploration, Baido (GPS) system, 5G and 6G, high speen rail system, drones, etc., China had to rely on her own. According to PIIE, China is second only to US in payment for intellectual rights. So China is not just a copy cat. Which concerted efforts to embargo China had succeeded?
A few points i would like to point out:
1) Diversity, in most cases, is a burden, not a strength. You will need extra effort to have a harmonious society that does not divide itself from difference in culture, religion and language. China has been unified for thousands of years in many of their population center and many of the Han ethnicity are in fact assimilated minorities. To prove my point, Japan and Korea is even more homogenized than China and yet they are also highly successful and innovative during their peak. Diversity is something we have to deal with because it is a reality in many places, but do not mistaken it as a strength or somehow an inherent advantage to creativity and innovation. What truly helps innovation is the environment and condition to innovate such as education, wealth, work culture etc, rather than ethnicity.
2) Western democracy is an experiment and as you said it yourself is highly flawed due to the involvement of capital. It is not a true democracy since your votes and choices are controlled by the capitalist. The experiment is about to reach its conclusion. Look at the collective west and even the so called asian "democracies". Many are showing weakness as well and many are still stuck in poverty. Western preference to befriend other democracies is based on lies and flawed ideologies. The elite loved other democracies because they can play them by the same rule: capitalism. By excluding other non western democracies in relationship is undemocratic in itself. What an irony.
3) India's demography is an advantage and a burden to the country. It cannot get demographic dividend if education, healthcare and employment does not keep up. It is a double edge sword that can lead to social unrest. An aging society is also not all bad as it is a stable one. As long as thee aging is within reasonable range and not too fast to overwhelm the country's pension system, a populous country with limited resources like China can benefit from a slight population reduction. GDP will not grow much, but gdp per capita will grow and therefore improving overall living standard.
Yesss!
For the U.S. diversity was good when it provided the environment to attract talents all over the world. Immigrants make overwhelming amount of contribution to all the scientific and technological success. The prestigious universities are still drawing the most brilliant people to America. Therefore it is not necessarily the local diversity. It is the ability to allure thinkers around the world population of 7 billion people. However for a country with 1.4 billion China already has a pretty big talent pool. They are now exposed to the rest of the world. Regardless of the effort for the West to block, they will get outside inspiration, cross pollenization, just through literature, entertainment, and through open-source information from the Internet. We already know there are extremely smart people there, and the results of the past 40 years proved it.
@@Whitfield369 This statement about diversity is often concocted by the western media as a triumph of western civilization. Yes, the west and especially america is draining the brains of the world for the last few decades, but not because of diversity, it is because of america's strength in economy and wealthy lifestyle (with a good dose of ideological propaganda) that attracts these immigrants most, not because of diversity. Diversity is a big headache that america has to deal with. America has always relied on immigrants to shore up their brain pool and this also does not mean diversity is a strength. It just means, like i said america is rich enough to attract them. Diversity is a side effect they need to deal with and dealt with it poorly judging by the amount of racism in the US. In contrast, have you wondered why most local chinese in china don't know what racism is despite living in a multi-ethnic places? Racism in China is not a big issue because they already dealt with this diversity for a much longer time than the US.
Very good 3 points. As for diversity, I would say that it can be both a strength and weakness. Monocultures like Japan or South Korea have shown to be extremely effective, yet places like Silicon Valley have also shown that innovation needs challenging minds from all over the world. I believe diversity (if not a religious crusade) has lots of benefits if managed well. It is a weaker point of China in my view, but not impossible to overcome either. I believe that smart and fair multicultural debates is very conductive to innovative disruptions.
@@PascalCoppens Indian diversity is a weakness, hence the recent anti-Muslim pogroms by the current Indian party in power, to say nothing of inter-caste discrimination and violence.
China has diversity as a strength, as "Han" is a multi-ethnic socio-cultural construct of assimilation and self-identity developed over millennia. "Han" Chinese of the north are ethnically and linguistically different from those of the south and west. Han is most easily conceptualized as 'fully assimilated Chinese'. There are over 1 Billion Han Chinese, and they are spread over vast distances, very different from the small Korean peninsula or Japanese islands.
Can India become the next China? Could India become the next factory of the world?
yes if they replace their democratic system with Chinese administration system
Imperialism is a failure. Not a good system
Look at their 1 child policy disater. Their CCP create famines when they ordered to kill sparrows or diverted farmers to manufacture steel.
Chinasproperty bubble just bursted.
People are refusing to pay emi of homes cause they didn't even get their homes.
Their tofu construction.
Their gender mismatch in demography.
Companies getting out of China.
Huge debt in China.
Why would anyone want to do that
It's not about the administration, it's more about the cultures that could hamper the progress.
@@sjelucten7150 india is already growing faster than china
@@sjelucten7150 What made you think North India have similarities with China?🤡
As an Indian, I would like to add two conflicting points:
1. The reality is India is nowhere China and it can never achieve the growth that China went through in early 2000s. Reasons? Diversity and a heavy representative democracy. India has nearly 2796 unofficial parties that has some kinda power in its democratic system. Each represents a group of people divided by language, region, caste, religion, tribe and etc. This makes it incredibly hard for the government to implement any policies without facing a backlash. That of course, disturbs the political stability in the country. This is why you find India has a huge disparity in income amongst different regions. The South is more progressive and is ruled by progressive parties that focuses on social justice. This helped them to get educated more and make progress much faster compared to some states in North. In North, a region which was most affected by the loot and invasions. It was always divided. Especially, a huge division between the native Hindus and Muslims who are seen as invaders "who made them poor" and looted their Hindu temples. This meant people there voted on premise on religion and caste. It became a question of who ruled over who unlike South? If I was a Hindu, I was support BJP since they support Hindus. If I was a Muslim, I would support Congress since they don't support as much. This is why North where most people live is underdeveloped compared to South. This isn't going to change anytime soon given people in North are way more religious than people in South.
2. However, this is not to say India won't grow or stagnate or even decline like its neighbors - Pakistan or Sri Lanka. It will grow but, at a very mid consistent pace by adopting Big Tent policies that satisfies everyone. India has done some wonders that some Western countries weren't able to do. India is really good at leapfroging. IT sector is a great example where it has done that. They don't shy away from trying new and innovative things despite the fact that they are poor. It doesn't stop them. It has people struggling under extreme poverty but, that didn't stop it from doing IT, a space program or now being top leaders in AI adaptability more than UK and USA (according to Decision Intelligence
Maturity Report 2022 by Peak.ai).
In conclusion, where do I see India in 10 years? Definitely will not anywhere near China in terms of total economy due to political struggles I mentioned earlier. However, it will be a very divided country in terms of economic prosperity. You will have people in urban cities earning as much as Westerners working in tech and etc. It will have more millionaires and billionaires than US one day (still behind China). You will have all the innovation and growth happening within that cluster of people where only they will prosper. The poor and uneducated will stay poor. However, I think India knows this. This is why it is focusing on manufacturing. It is the only way to provide employment to relatively young and yet unskilled workers. It is the next stage. But, I worry that their innovation in manufacturing and agriculture will not leapfrog as fast as their services.
Thanks for very valuable feedback!
By 2024 India will be a 4 Trillion USD economy. And by 2030 India will definitely go beyond 7 Trillion! And now with BJP Government India is on right track.Through Hindutva movement India is going to become a Focused Organized Unit leaving all the caste/religious/political issues behind!
Need to consider extreme income inequality will create social and political unrest as well as increase in crimes and violent incidents.
White man gives India false flatteries n praises which is so far from realities as long as they control her behind the scenes.
Communism will destroy by itself once a bad leader steps in, that is why Democracy has electioneering to remove wrong leader in short time.
Hi Pascal I am an Indian so I know what is the conditions right here in india. I read quite a few comments, people are talking about a lot of problems and concluding 'that's why india can't become like that'. Yes I have to agree some are true but most of them are not. In the past we also had a lot of problems but we counter them. Some are trying to say that their people are smarter than indians so we develop this much. But in practical every people in the globe is equal. It's only about recourse, time and infra. If one country can arrange it they will develop further. About hard working if you insight into the life a common indian guy then you will find how how hard working they are. Jai hind 🇮🇳
Yes,we are very hard working and we will overcome all odds soon.Jai Hind🇮🇳
Kalachakar is on Indian side
Problems aren't India not smart but the whole Governing systems plus culture intolerance. You can say it is changing but remember the whole world is changing too, even the poorest country.
India needs a complete social revolution. Just like agriculture, if there is no thorough deep plowing, no good crops will grow. Do you think India's current social status can produce a modern developed country?
Actually - average IQ does count for a lot too
The way of the Chinese huge & unprecedented national success in a short 30 years cannot be replicated by or copied by any other country in the World.
Because it doesn't depend on one & or a few factors but the entire unique ecosystem of the Chinese culture & civilization evolved, developed & refined continuously for a long period of a few thousands years!
Yes the civilization of tightning screws for American companies. 😂😂
@@Nitish.Singhal HERE IS YOUR 5CENT TIPS FOR YOUR SERVICE. AS YOUR INDIA SERVANT TRADITION
@@Nitish.Singhal
What were you doing yesterday?
@nma George Sun Tze, Confucious, and many many Chinese proverbs show how we have to learn from the past in order to be better in the future.
China has a 350% debt to GDP ratio & the real estate sector of 30% of GDP will add to bad debts
Having ghost towns is stupid economics & buying a home & a 2nd & 3rd home *because house prices constantly go up* is another example of *stupid economics* & finally producing for the world when just 200 million out of your 1400 million Chinese can afford goods your export is a *another stupid economics example
I am convinced Chinese do not know business as a people & race
Casteism in India currently is extremely limited to some remote villages.
Also, someone's caste is not an obstacle to prevent them from taking up whatever job they want to do, nor did I see any ofy classmates from the so called Lower Castes facing any discrimination anywhere at school and as such. I think caste is no more a big issue in India.
But it live and sound here in American corporation 😅
A wise old man once said ... If you reach a T junction ... There stand a Indian and the other side is a cobra snake ... Then you should walk toward the cobra away from the Indian ...
was the wise old man an Indian ;-)
Haha… understand. I know where you’re coming from. 😂 Anyway, All I know is that they are “三分颜色上大红” . Think too highly once you put a feather on their cap. Very self- exaggerate their worth. 🤪
Oh dear !
Nothing but sweeping generalisation. Only a bigot can do this!
@@crtordoes All response, reaction and replies are simply product of what they have been conditioned. Bless CCP's Deng Xiaopeng good governance but rise of 'nationalistic hatred' from a 'communist' country makes me remember fascist pretending to be socialist from Germany.
I have many friends in export/import business, and I have asked them what they think of doing business with Indians. They all told me same answer "Don't expect to make a dime with the Indians"
True. Absolutely true.
Make money in India Spend in India and never take home a penny
As an indian i can say my country is developing in rapid speed, i know USA and China are far ahead from us, but ey what I see is , we currently doesn't have too much to lose, rather than gaining and growing . And that's a good thing 😊🇮🇳
What changed exactly couls you give a personal example?
@@bingqizhou6339 At least the space technology is kind of amazing.
@@perlkingneo "personal"
@@bingqizhou6339 just go to indian villages . ask them. They will tell u
Hii i am from India... Your analysis is really good... And you pointed out right problem which India has... But the most amazing thing is... The present modi government is working on all the issues
You said that you are coming to india... Then you must ask people about govt project.. From sagarmala to bharatmala, gati shakti, logistics policy, ondc, upi, all the infra projects...,dron policy, semicon policy... You will be amazed for sure👍👍
India govenment behaves more wisdom in recent years than before.I hope India can be more and more prosperous and benefit more Indian people
@@jasonchen6942 don't worry, our forefathers might lack Vision while chosing right govt, but not us,
As a 21st century GENERATION INDIAN , WE r very clear what's the direction our BHARAT (INDIA) should move in to gather fastest rate of growth😎 Decisions r not easy in a democracy as SELFISH opposition and their ρets r there to oppose everything, but yes, we feel very FREE and HAPPY in democracy
JAI HIND💪
more milestones to achieve for our motherland ...🙏
@@gauravchaturvedi6080 In the meantime Australia, Britain, the US, and Canada have job openings for Asians. Britain even gives 100.000 visas to Hongkongers. I'm sure they need Indians as well. I heard they think Hongkong people are hardworking and know British Rules of Law, I'm sure Indians offer the same advantages.
@@sjelucten7150 let's see, we trust our govt, they'll do whatever is BEST for our motherland
@@sjelucten7150 Indians are the largest immigrants coming each year in Britain. I think Hong Kong might be 2nd.
China: We make every hiTech thing in China.
India: We buy every hiTech thing from the other countries.
China : we produce 90% of our defence hardwares
India : we are the world's Largest arms importer
India is going to produce semiconductors soon. It's already producing it's military equipment among many other things.
@@HafiZzZzZz 万国牌 😂😂
Man , the delusional level.. get a 101 study from meaning ful sources
Problem with India, is that they involuntarily "exported" all their elites to the US because, the country has little to offer for their retention.
To be honest, as a chinese, I hope India can become the next factory of the world. This can bring us more opportunities to make money. However, the current business environment is too bad in India. Xiaomi today, Apple tomorrow.
印度不会让你们在印度赚到钱带出去的，在印度的商人能跑就跑。
not true with hyundai, samsung, its just belligerent antagonism against China @user-su4fe6rc7v
I think more people in comment section know a lot about what india can't do, what are it's shortcomings but they still don't have any idea what are the strength of india. India has attain it's peak population so now the population will start declining by a natural process whereas china is facing their one child policy consequences. Moreover geopolitics also play an important role in countries development, but still can't predict as it is very dynamic but china has itself created lots of enemies around itself . So for now india is in more favourable position than china. Also, the democracy may slow down things just like elephant moves slowly but when it moves, it makes an impact permanently. Also india knows the Western hypocrisy and so india also has second move advantage. So as an Indian I am very optimistic. I know some would disagree.
Thanks for sharing.
Exactly,I was also quite surprised to see the one sided comments on a good rational video. Is India lagging behind China? Yes...on many aspects, but it is surely moving forward and life of people is changing for better everyday. Any one who visits India and try to observe (other than our poor waste management) will realize so. And I really think that India shouldn't be another China! Progress is essential but not the Chinese or American way!
I completely agree and do believe in India, and its people.
All of the comments are from salty Chinese. I just laugh at them.
Exactly 💯
Love the fact that the whole world still views india the same way it used to do before
It's actually an advantage
Citizens of other countries don't consider you as a threat and hence no public mandate for their leaders to pursue
I hope world keeps on having this view of India since it's obviously not a easy thing to grow when other countries hate you
Good point.
I'm personally of the opinion that it's actually more difficult to grow when other countries like you, since it stiffles your mindset for growth, which makes you remain in the comfort zone and hence, stagnate. But the citizens of the communist mainland seem to have drowned into so much misinformation and arrogance that it's actually starting to translate into an advantage, I'd rather say let them be drowned in their arrogance, racism and narrow mindedness they have developed by analyzing data from a decade ago.
You are probably mistaken here. We don't hate India or the Indians
this is very true
@@ikkong8436 ohhhh come on
Then you really think Indians shit on the roads ?? Really ?
And the million tons of other prejudice you guys like to put on us
Why do I see foreigners staying in a particular part of Delhi ???
Cause they want to see what they want to see
India is literally on a transformation phase
I live in a tier 3 city of India but whenever I don't go out of the house for some days or week and then I go out , there's always some new building being built
Some kind of project pops out of nowhere
Why's that ?
Cause we growing
And tbh many Indians are content with that , we don't want to beat china or annex your land
It's the west and the east's mentality
In the thousands of years of history india never invaded because we simply don't feel like it
But at the same time it's important we emerge strong coz we have had our fair share of learnings on how you get exploited when you are too content with what you have and don't grow enough
I am from India, and preparing for civil services in India, thus i have a little understanding about things here.
Firstly i must say that this video of yours is quite informative and full of useful insight which lot of other might either ignores or simply they don't want to show that, so congratulations in this regard and thanks for doing that.
Secondly; some of your inputs are outdated a little, not very much though but a little i.e urbanization, infrastructure, digitization, etc.
For instance govt. Back in 2015 started a program called smart cities which is to make 100 cities smart in various aspects including housing, infra, cleanliness, sustainability water and electricity and verious other things. these cities mostly aren't the ones like delhi, mumbai, Chennai etc. Now govt. Expand it to 150 cities across the india, not centred in a region. And also some very major steps has been taken places in regarding other things like skilling up, digitization and infrastructure modernization.
Thirdly, everybody in this comment section and out of it quite worrying about the democratic values in India. For that i am simply stating that every country or region is either gone through or going through or going to talk about there basic principles at one point of time. When these talks taking place and it always created a chaos. When it isn't creating it then it is a worrying situation, so in upcoming years if everything goes all right, situation will be far more exciting and productive. I am hopeful about it because the essence of Indian society is always been peaceful and co-existence.
Last but not the least, it's never been a race between anything. Atleast from India's perspective. It has never occurred in our history that we are in a race with anything or anyone about anything. We're always been an idea of fulfillment and values and ethics.
One can see it in its deplomatic, economic, political and social policies.
Oviously in some instances one can see some differences but they are minor when seen in a big picture.
Thanks for sharing. Since my visit last week, I do not disagree with your words either.
❤
I mean, india will outlast uk for sure.
after 100years sucking india and other countries blood.
UK is going straight to hell
@@greyknightcharpter6689 there nothing good in that (if they're going to hell) holding grudges in your heart and mind will never lets you dream. There is only one way.....Move forward....look forward
@jlin3131 INDIA is not a building my friend @jlin3131, INDIA is an idea. One can sometimes agree with it, sometimes not. It is not necessary to always agree or disagree, there is always a space to let others agree and disagree. Also one can agree with some parts of it.
Now about Manipur, yes it's sad, very sad to watch and see the images coming out of it, mothers losing their sons over almost for nothing, childrens orphend and so many other kinds of things happening. One should always feel sad about it. We pray for them.
But this is a long awaited struggle which is bound to happen....i don't have sufficient information about it as of now.... because everything is covered with smoke, so let the smoke die down then we can see the full picture of it...
No,
- underdeveloped infrastructure
- unstable laws especially for foreign investors
- still use of banned caste system
- underdeveloped supply chain
India can only become the next "India"
No,
- Fast developing infra: Many metro lines, trains, highways, expressways are developing.
- Stable laws for foreign investor: Highest FPI was recorded in August 2022.
- Still use of banned caste system? Yes, but only in the education sector.
- Fast Developing supply chains: A great national logistics and employment policy. Record high exports and some good startups. Many FTAs to ease global trade partners and customers.
India can only become the next "India" just like how it was a few centuries ago. India will never become a country with communism or without human rights.
:)
Agreed, India can only dream-on, keep on dreaming. Smelly and filthy countries with HORRIBLE caste system.
@@drippydrinker96 still having people pooping on streets, lots of uneducated people, declining birthrates, unknown start ups, deeply corrupt and dysfunctional poltiical system, plagued with caste and religious tensions etc india will remain a rotting shithole until it solves their massive internal issues
We have democracy what else is required?
@@balajib1406 democracy is the culprit that India is keep on fighting internally, just like united snakes of America. 1 decision take years. In communist country 1 decision only take weeks and executable. India you will be super power in.... Never...., you wish... lol 🤣
Not sure how Indians can compete with the Chinese. The Chinese focus on getting things done. Indians indulge in thinking: spiritual pursuit, meditation, whimsical ideas. Democracy brings Indians as much chaos as freedom.
Getting things done? Like what? Stealing organs and "re-education " people?
@@msdolly6101981 eating octopus cooked in snail oil.
Stealing everything others make. Occupy territories of small neighbours.
Build entire un-civilisation around the idea of 'Art of war'.
Have a population that follows Indian culture for 2000 years. And then in the name of uniqueness and arrogance, wipe it all out in culture revolution.
Help Islam flourish in SE Asia coz them Hindus are taking over (16th CE onwards).
Tell the world both countries started equally when clearly, Bharat was divided, brutalised for 1000 years while thyself doubled up territories in 1947.
Have a century of humiliation while the other hand a millennium of. And then tell thyself is is a 'survivor'.
@@msdolly6101981 People who are jealous of Chinese success comfort themselves with lies.
There's nothing wrong in spritual philosophies, but we're here talking about Politics. If every single Indian became conscious, then every single one of them would revolt against this colonialist political institutions which are the core reason behind our growth. But Stupidity exists in masses!
@aarnik We don't do, infact we wouldn't have been doing if white people wouldn't have been doing because at that time, we were already brainwashed by colonialist to think everything of native practice as backward, superstitious and unscientific. If we, all of us, every single of us, did intense dhyana for some years, then we will succeed even in this democractic system with colonialist political institutions but it won't happen, because stupidity exists in masses.
As a Chinese I hope both countries should cooperate as neighbors and both having a long history, rather than having conflicts between each other
I agree
Sorry we are hate china . We are quickly boycott all chines products
@@msutha2120 It's understandable, because you guys have such a neighbour who is much stronger than you in military force and economy, and so much bigger than you in land area. If I were you, I would boycott too.
Any country can become a great nation if its citizens set their minds on it. If there is a will, there is a way!
but India only has a big mouth ...nothing has changed in real term ,,still as pooooor as Africa considering gap per capital
wow, india is gonna be the next China just by having apple move 25% of it's production there.
manufacturers are moving out of India as quick as they are moving in
If Apple want to sell Apple Cell Phones in India, Apple must produce those Cell Phones in India......Not because Apple want to be in India........India are very smart people but due to 1,000's of years of the caste system, most top leaders and upper management are not always the Brightest in the company therefore this creates resentments, not in the beginning but the longer the company exist, the more resentments grows......thus slowing down progress of the company. Even in companies where the top managements are the Brightest, due to existing caste system, worker feels that the management gets their position not through merits but caste class......yeah, India have little more time to catch up............
@@MrWill1729 Source: I made it up.
@@vangcruz4442 caste system is absolutely rubbish indicator of India's development. Caste system has never been an oppressive tool only meant to differentiate between people of different occupational basis which got interlocked due to corruption in the religion. India was world's richest civilization in the past and it will achieve it again. Nobody practices caste system anymore other than a few villagers.
@@deusmachinima1189 very good. Problem is solved.......yes, India was once the richest in the world.... but that was before the caste system were put in place by the Oligarchs of that time. Yes, you may be right about NOBODY practice the caste system anymore but you are not one of the Untouchables Class.........upper caste never have problems with the caste system. .....this is why the Rich introduced the caste system........only Lower and Untouchables caste class have problems........and even though nobody practice it, try and get married to an upper caste class girls.....GOOD luck.....sorry there is no Luck in a claste system.....you are borned into it......LOL
India was founded two years before China,. At that time India's GDP per capita and all infrastructure was twice that of china. According to Western logic, compared to China , India had a perfect democracy, a well-functioning British judicial system, a complete manufacturing industry left behind by the Britain , a perfect financial environment, English was the official language of India, and no country in the world sanctioned and blockaded India, so India should be crushed on all fronts against China . The fact is that by the time Mr. Mao passed away in 1976, China had caught up with India. Since then, the mainland has continued to pull away from India, and China's per capita GDP is now nearly six times that of India. India's development advantage over China has been in place for 75 years. For such a long time, India has not been able to use so many advantages, so why is it suddenly possible now? Shouldn't India and the West take a good look at this? Those who are not afraid to hit their faces can certainly continue to be Indian blow!
Simple answer is no. India has a lot of simple basic problems they can't even solve. Since you're heading to Mumbai, have a look at their roads and sidewalks. Many streets don't have lane markings, no traffic signals at intersections and they have speed bumps on big streets to reduce traffic (so backwards). And their sidewalks are so rundown in poor conditions, you have to ask yourself how can a country with the 5th largest economy unable to solve problems so simple. Their IT is growing only because of the American firms that moved there.
I will check the sidewalks!
There’s such a thing like private and public road differentiation in India. Most of the public road were tarred but certain area no white lines which became chaotic. Not all private roads were tarred. Some are sandy when dry but turn muddy when it rains.
Mumbai alone has 250+ skyscrapers under construction with it's 250 skyscrapers skyline presently. Similarly all cities in india are recording immense growth, roads in india are improving as well but the distribution is not spread out.
@@PascalCoppens And also the homelessness and slum areas...
@@CarpsterKing - same as American cities
I like how all these Chinese in the comments are so aware of Indias problems that existed in early 2000’s but none of them have any idea what has changed in last 2 decades!! Amazing!!
😂😂
Walk out from your house in India and you will see why the Chinese are right about India.
I walk outside my house everyday, have no idea what these delusional Chinese are taking about.
@@asakurayoh3909
When you walk outside your house, you will know unless you are blinded by Bharat Man ego and pride, Jai Hind. Namaste.
@@asakurayoh3909 yup let them talk...
I wish India and China could become friends
Too much religion, communalism, democracy (yes). Caste system and a lack of a truly accepted national language. Too much regard for the ways of their former colonial masters. Finally, indians just debate , talk too much and argue ..but oftentimes deliverables suffer.
One person last week told me that the next growth in India is always around the corner...but as soon as you reach the corner, there is another corner...
What a dogma view U hv !! Go nd study a lot more to come out of ur one-sided view!!
@@kishwarlal8299 perhaps you'd like to rebut what I said instead of...
@@k.k.c8670 just an advice..U should study more before making a joke in public platform
@@kishwarlal8299 thanks but I respectfully decline advice from you at the moment.
In India there we are also building small economics in the places so that if big disaster or crises come the small small economics did not get effected because of macro crises.
FORGET CHINA!
It is not a question of
"INDIA BECOME THE NEXT CHINA".
It is almost certain of When, not If, India will leave The Mighty USA in the dust.
I believe it is Sooner rather than Later.
Never, never UNDERESTIMATE THE INDIANS!
Yes if the big bully thousands of miles away don't interfere with India's development.
If the big bully wants to interfere with India, it’ll be a piece of cake. Democracy is a fair game for regime change and instability.
European countries are pretty much defenseless. Japan had no defense at all. Wonder how India can defend itself, lol.
@@eggheadegghead The best possible way for India to get rich quickly is to ask her colonial master to give back all the riches she has taken away. It's 45trillions I heard.
Your insecurity is my motivation
(Dedicated to my all
Chinese friends)
Well said bro
You nailed it
If India and China become very good friends and sign treaties on economic development, bilateral and global peace agreements, educational upliftment for Asia and etc., then it will be a game changer project. Together the Asia can grow faster if India and China become thick friends.
INDIA AND RUSSIA DO NOT TRUST THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT OR THE CHINESE PEOPLE.
Look akshai chin is a political tool more than anything now and india and china work and even trade in brics as long as a formal border is established india and china are good friends
The West won't allow 2 giants to be friends with each other.
Is Asean that will be the next China, not India.
Asean or India...an interesting debate.
Vietnam and Indonesia are more possible.
Hi Pascal,
Your argument fails to mention the risk that the West, especially the US, will block India's growth once India's economy threatens to surpass them, as is what is happening now that the US is working against China with all kinds of sanctions and threats along with its allies.
Unlike China, which has the unequivocal drive from the center of the one-party system, India with its democracy system will find it very difficult to go against Western sanctions to move forward, as politics can be easily influenced by the West. Think of the well-known tactics such as regime change directed by the West.
Therefore, and also due to decoupling and self-sufficient policy that is currently going on in the West, the highest achievable place that India can achieve is the world's third largest economy by 2040.
Seems India is going against the West lately. If you check the vote at U.N. 2 days ago, it is clear India is making decisions for themselves more than ever now.
@@PascalCoppens
Just because of this new attitude of India towards the West, the West has now woken up early. The West will therefore take all possible actions against India in order not to make the same mistake again as with China, everything to prevent India from becoming an extra China.
As a result, India's economic plans and industrialization will not develop into a global scale. It can be compared to a flute tree whose blossoms bloom too early (India is going against the West now) and are frozen in a night frost (blockades imposed by the West) after which they do not develop into fruit.
In other words, in terms of economic dependence, the West will not be warned a second time, and that India will therefore never or impossible to defeat them unless the US and the EU break up.
@@vision9275 India have the second mover advantage and knows what to look out for. West tactic of sanctions means that India needs to expand UPI and have an alt-SWIFT ASAP. It also needs to look at bottleneck tech that the West holds, and work on an alternative.
@@PascalCoppens You failed to look at the big picture, the macroeconomic. etc.
@@ric6074 do share the bigger picture. Would love your insights.
Something doesn't add up here. From what I understand you said, China is the muscle and India is the brain. So, how come we don't see any high tech product that comes out of India. On the other hand, China mobile phones actually export to India. China have more 5G patents than any other country. China is leader in drone technology, high speed train. Even build a space station on their own. And many more. I think China is both the muscle and the brain.
Greetings from Mumbai-India
Pascal-the 1st thing to understand is that India *does not want to destroy our cultivable area* in setting up factories to make cheap products so India is into knowledge exports which are non polluting & our IT service exports will touch 1.5 Trillion US dollars by 2035 from 200 Billion of 2022
I hope and wish India all the best in the future. I'm tired of people around the world talking about China this and China that. It's time for a change, I think Chinese people in China also want to have more privacy and don't want too much attention on their government or people. Looking forward to seeing another better power than the current ones.
@@sjelucten7150
India is *not interested in replacing China-nor do we want to spoil our Environment & Cultivable Land* in making cheap goods for WESTERN countries or the World.
It takes 270 litres of water to produce 01 kg of Rice & even though from 14th Sept 2022 -India replaced UK as the 5th biggest economy on PLANET EARTH -it is a fact that as on 14th Sept 2022-just 08 Indians out of 100 own a ceiling fan -so once our per capita consumption increases to 40 FANS per 100 Indians & a 3.4 Trillion GDP increases 25 times to 30 Trillion US Dollars by 2049 totally via internal consumption due to increased per capita purchasing power -we really want our population to get richer & enjoy the fruits of growth etc
Pascal, before making a comparison video between China and india, please spend some time learning about india really well. A lot of the talks about india's super growth, the next China blah blah in the western media was just hype to tap into the india consumer market. They were hoping india's 1.4 billion consumers would pan out for them like China's 1.4 billion consumers. After 2 decades, corporate executives finally realized it's just wishful thinking and American companies left india in masses in 2020. Only their IT sector can grow for now but that industry can't grow forever as the next big wave is AI and 6G. And don't just visit the 3 richest cities in india: Mumbai, Delhi and Bangalore to get the full spectrum of the country's development.
Yup
I will keep learning about India over time.
@@PascalCoppens I think you will also. I started learning about india 2 years ago myself. Have a look at "Jayant Bhandari's" channel. He's an Indian born and raised in India but now lives in Canada as a financial analyst and has a very strong opinion on India's economic outlook and future. He's very knowledgeable and honest in his opinions.
@@PascalCoppens And enjoy your time in India.
Unless India fix their class system infrastructure supply chain issues . One thing going against India is climate change . India is a energy importer and cannot build more coal plants due to climate change . They have no space for solar as India is 1/3 size of China and too many people . Other problems are global warming and drought as rivers are drying up . Also supply chain is a problem as they don’t have access to raw materials that China does . China has the bri linking it to the world . India has no bri so getting goods to eu or USA is a problem. India’s geography is not good . It’s in middle of various choke points and far from eu and USA . Many issues
Your analysis is 80-85% correct. I'm Indian and our biggest weakness is diversity. We have too many languages, cultures, differences and political parties to deal with internally which is hindering us. I admire China's growth, I only hope we can learn from them.
Pascal ‘s analysis of these two countries and the comparison between the two economies are just too simplistic and superficial, whereas, such comparisons are far more complex in reality. India’s economy, today , has many structural problems both in the public and private sectors which still have traces of colonial characteristics in their operations. The economic and political transformations from a semi colonial economy to the 21st. century AI & manufacturing nation , like that of China today, would be an enormous task with a very steep learning curve to overcome for India.
Thanks for sharing. On China, I wrote 2 books as it is more complex than can be told in a 40 minute video. I am sure it's the same for India. I welcome any more insights. Thanks
@@PascalCoppens while your commentary on China is generally good, you are woefully underinformed about India.
1. India cannot catch China within the next century (100 years) and that is absolute mathematical certainty. China currently has roughly FIVE (5) times the GDP of India, so India would need to grow an average of 6.5% faster than China over that century. If India only grows 3% faster than China, as you suggested, then they will need more than 200 years (2 centuries) to catch up.
2. India's demographics are terrible. While they have a lot of young people, they are very, very poorly educated compared to their Chinese counterparts. China has a youth population that is roughly equal to that of the West, except that they are better educated and highly motivated to develop China. India has a vastly smaller well-educated youth, and their ultimate life goal is to emigrate to a Western country, further accelerating Indian 'brain drain". The successful Indians who remain in India will be saddled with carrying their less productive countrymen for decades. Indian neglect of human development turns their youths into a demographic millstone.
3. Indian democracy will further slow advancement, just as they do in every democratic country. No democratic country has ever industrialized out of poverty on their own. Taiwan and Korea were military dictatorships. Japan is still a single-party dictatorship. China is a single-party state.
4. The United States will not allow any competitors to grow. When Japan grew, they imposed the Plaza Accords resulting in the Lost Decades. When Germany grew too strong, they forced the Ukraine War. The US has been fighting a hybrid information / economic war against China for the past few decades, and really ramped up with Trump. If/when India ever gets strong, India can expect to see CIA-sponsored color revolutions in Sikkim, etc. that parallel Tibet, Xinjiang and HK.
5. Indian caste culture guarantees Indian failure. Caste is a system of division, and it's drilled into Indians from birth. A country divided by caste cannot unite to become a global power.
It is far more likely that India descends into civil war and further Partition than it brings all Indians together over the next century to surpass China.
@Grau Geist - Spot on . Plus the KARMA of the land matters too . Plus Still to this day the masses in India follow superstitious dogma rituals etc . The most racist folks . The list is endless . But all in all,India will always remain the sick man of Asia .
@@GrauGeistYT Well said.. 👍
@@GrauGeistYT very well said
Short answer “no”
Great minds do think a like
Long answer "nooooooooo"
India is not going to be the next china. India will be bigger than china.
Long answer: Yeesssssssss!. The amount of infra India has under construction seems to be a good indicator of future progress
Possible, only when.
If India wants to catch up with China, it must first review and evaluate its own capabilities: 1. Caste issues; 2. Racial and religious discrimination, exclusion of Muslims, Sikhism, only Hinduism, and one-third of the infidels are excluded; 3. There are still two-thirds of the population who are illiterate, and education needs to be improved; 4. Corruption and bureaucracy are rife all over the world; 5。 Land ownership and even land acquisition is a big issue; 6. There is still a lot to improve in infrastructure, water conservancy, electricity and sanitation. It will take at least 25 years to reach the above problems, and it remains to be seen.
most of the intelligence indians ,once they send out of country and study there like USA or other western nations, they will not go back their country to work again, thus we can notice that most of india politicians are not highly educated.
The next China is the combination of these countries:
1) Vietnam
2) Indonesia
3) Phillipines
4) Cambodia
5) Bangladesh.
That is an interesting answer.
@RELIGION IS THE BIGGEST LIE Why not, If I can include Cambodia then why not Bangladesh.
I guess so too.
I hope Pascal Coppens will give us his answer on whether "I India could become the next factory of the world" after his
visit to India. In my view, this is highly unlikely because the two countries are so different.
In China their women held up half of the sky. Sadly India marginalized their women to the basement so it will be kind of impossible to catch up at all. They got a out to come close only when their women are unchained.
Challenges to overcome for India:
- bureaucratic inertia (let’s be honest business are not democracies otherwise they’d never be able to make a business decision)
- Integrated supply chain and logistics
- Clear laws (not just existence and application of law but equal access and equal remedies)
- Equality (social class and sex)
Indian judiciary under the CJI Lalit has created new change of policy, the Judges are being chased to work hard, the British holidays are being cancelled.
Criminal LOV, above has mentioned about the Logistic policy. Yesterday India created its own manf 5G network, they expect it to cover end of 2024 across the nation. We are entrepreneurial country, Now wonder all the largest after (500 S&P)USA are from India.
Equality-- tell me one country where EQUALITY exist in any form??
@@tayaramecanici "We are entrepreneurial country, Now wonder all the largest after (500 S&P)USA are from India." that means inequality, which doesn't necessarily mean a good thing. It is really the midclass that is the driving force of the economy, not just a few top rich guys. BTW, India needs really abolish the caste system not just on paper. Just yesterday we learned that there was a little girl beaten to death by her teacher because of her rank. If a society cannot be totally inclusive, there will always be a large number of people lagging.
Equality? How’s the uighurs situation working out for ya?
@@nid-jk2vx I am not Chinese but I am sure life of Uighurs is much better than yours. I never heard Uighur women were raped on streets but often read such reports on India women in our media. India is famous for that in the world. BTW, what about the life of Untouchables? I heard just recently there was a girl beaten to death by her teacher because of her low caste. What is your caste? You must be very proud of it, don't you?
No ! India can never compete with China's production of a-z things from simple toys, electronic stuff to Commercial Aircrafts.
India will be India. India may shine in certain areas .. but as such half the Indian population is still living with the most basic necessities of life.
As an Indian, I would like India to solve first India's own problems before trying to play a big game in the World Arena. (Many may disagree with me !)
I fully agree with Kerala ...put your own house in order before going on world stage...India has been getting all attention lately because of the geopolitics between Russia..China..US and EU... making the importance of India
more prominent in world affairs...
india's main problem is its politics,coumminsts systematically brainwashed majority population through various means like education,media,movies ,influencers .they are against change of political economy only in 1991 free market reforms were introduced,even now if govt wants to bring reform they will oppose.people are not aware of these conspiracy,they might geting funding from China, West to stall the growth of India by stopping industrialisation by creating hurdles in land acquisition, labour unrest ,Indian conditions are not feasible for increasing scale of production and there by competitive pricing with Chinese manufacturing .various laws not allow companies to become big.then how can small and medium industries can compete in manufacturing with other countries where with the scale cost of production comes down.gradully communist hypocrisy exposed to people ,they are becoming irrelevant but they still have control of media,education sector ,judicairy,influencers .so it will take time .China and West funds these communist hypocrites. example Narmadha river dam was started decades ago but due to these communists and Their movement it was halted for 3 decades.now it was allowed by courts.many areas got water after this much delay.those hypocrites became millioners with funding from outside.new government banned about 10000 NGO s which are getting money and doing these kind of works?
Keralaforum lmao get ur facts right first..india already increased its production of toys and now os major exporter, than importer now. And where did u get this imaginary figure half of india lives below poverty line?
Hksun we can understand ur pain and jealousy.
@@lutappidhakini6166 Fool. Emotions and pseudo-nationalism solve nothing.
China has developed a Boeing-like commercial plane. Chinese electric cars are already marketed in Europe. In the USA and Europe, one goes to any shop - clothe, sports shoe , electronic stuff - one sees only either Made in China or Made in South Korea ..We don't see even 5% Indian stuff. Once I see at least 5% Indian stuff, then I can change my opinion.
Pascal you might be interested in Lee Kuan Yew's opinion. He thought that India will never catch up to China, because of it's social and governance structures. The social structure is pre industrial, and the governance is british! Not that India can't change them, but it will be extremely painful, as in China. It is doubtful that India has the wherewithal to go through that.
Thanks for that info!
I agree with you.
Fully agree! Lack of unity will hurt their progress! They still live in the British“divide and rule” mindset.
It's a pity LKY is no longer with us to contribute to his vision. Before Soeharto of Indonesia was toppled by rioting students and IMF/World Bank, LKY called Soeharto's daughter to step down as a hero who help develop his country, but his daughter didn't dare to advise her father who is a dictator, he was encouraged to continue his presidency. His wife died and nobody could advise him and the consequence is he was gotten rid off by his countrymen backed up by of course foreign forces (everyone knows which forces). LKY was a man of great vision, which his son doesn't have.
@@scy3894 --- Modi is a Hindu Fanatic oppressing Indian Muslims to win the Hindu vote. A so called democracy where beef is banned and "The Cow Vigilantes Rule".
India will grow and prosper in spite of itself.
Only thing comparable between India and China is the huge population, all other differences are just too huge, from ethnic makeup, a single national language, political system, work ethics, religion adherence, unity, history, land ownership, etc. India will not rise like China, and will have to find her own path of development, and will be much more haphazard without the benefits of long term planning!
Rubbish. India and china were top economies and india was 24% of world gdp before british colonised it and made it poor. India will rise just like china.. but more democratically
Coppens asked the wrong question, the question should be, "How many foreign companies succeed in India"?
The first thing come to my brain is energy. Will they have enough electricity to run all the new factories?
@@hungoh2801 i've been to India twice a handful of years ago. my GF said once was enough for her.
there were blackouts everywhere we visited, even Delhi.
@@willengel2458 funny I live in Bangalore I haven’t seen a blackout in a decade .
Disagreeing with other comments, I think you have done a good job on searching about India. Will wait for your thoughts after visit to india. 👍
India will be India please dont compare us with anyone, we are rising from ashes the british left us with and now we are ahead of UK's economy in just 75 Years. Offcourse we have a long way to go but India's rise is Unchallenged
I guess you probably missed one very important fact that is in order to catch up with China or the US, India needs the same-sized housing market. Without it, it would be very difficult to catch up with both China and the US.
As an Indian, I was searching for this comment.
a. We must use modesty and humility when addressing a country. No person can judge a nation.
b. Of course India can't become China- but they can achieve greatness and success - their own way.
c. Like people, countries have their limitations, which hinder their progress. They must have the courage to face these limitations.
I wish India should become no 1
In this talk Pascal is kind of native. I do not think India automatically has huge advantages simply because of English speaking (only by educated Indians) and the democracy system (only sometimes works). I think India's dream of world factory is largely uncertain because (i) a couple of competitors at the same level exsit, such as Indonesia, and (ii) India does not have much critical mineral resources, and it relies heavily on external energy.
We are finding new ways 🙂 in terms of sourcing out fuel & electricity.
@@PrithaBhowmick-cb1cz India now has the opportunity to take over all the huge amounts of oil and gas that Russia used to supply to the West. The only problem is the transportation routes. For the best options India needs a pacified Afghanistan and newtral of friendly Pakistan.
One thing both countries are doing really well is reforestation.
Both countries should cooperate because frankly they have more in common than the West prefers to advertise.
Russia is a massive gain for India and China. Its exactly the new supply of cheap energy needed to keep the industrial growth of both countries going as they switch towards green energy.
Ditto food security. Russia can also provide both countries with agriculture as global warming may provide more arable land in Russia.
Excellent point. I agree. I also made video long time ago about reforestation in China
People ask why almost 98% of online scammers are based in India, In the 90s India has a huge Call Centre business going on, many western companies would set up call centers in India because Indians knew to speak English properly( atleast could be understood by the western public)...In the 2010's when Call Centers began shifting out of India into countries like Philippines and Thailand, The Indian Call Centers became jobless and took on scamming as their work to gain money to feed their families...Its Sad that Indian Govt and Police Forces do not take much action against them...But these people never had the intention to scam innocent people but were forced to do when they lost their call center jobs...
As a Chinese, i sincerely hope India do well, once they are rich, the likelihood to create trouble will reduce.
smart thinking!
Sorry not true. If they have a bit of education and more than 2 pennies to rub together the more trouble they create. I speak from experience.
@@AnnieT369 Totally agree with you. People that have not dealt with these indian will not know.
Simon King, you should learn about India's culture. Under their Caste System, the Brahmins are at the top and most wealthy people in India running the country while the Dalits are at the bottom. You should see the atrocities being committed to people simply because they are considered as Dalits. The reason why India is so bad is because of the rich people their and the level of inequality. much like here in America where the 1% controls everything but on steroids in india.
Create trouble like CCP ATTACKED INDIA IN 2019,2016..India has never attacked any country ..So,better get a history lesson
Hi Pascal, Thank you so much for your work. I just watched this video now. I do tend to agree with 80% . I led engineering (manufacturing) teams both in India and USA for more than 3 decades total. I hired people in India and worked on several state of art innovative projects. One thing that I completely disagree is about caste system. Now mostly people don't believe in the caste system but it does exist now only because for political gains and quota systems. Although caste is a western construct but in India it was basically based on ancestral trades and businesses like smith, carpenter, leather, pottery, hairdressing, dairy, farming etc. But after independence all these so called lower castes have been given quota (which is now allocated 60% in federal and about 70-80% in states) both in government jobs as well as all public Institutions, colleges, Universities. This has resulted them leaving their ancestral trades and assuming relatively well paid public jobs having 100% job security and pension (no one can fire or lay off). This quota system is so much abused that even a multi millionaire from this category is eligible to avail the quota benefit while an extremely poor and talented kid from so called upper caste will have to compete very hard in the leftover general category. No government can scrap this reservation policy, because they will loose votes and can't come back in power ever again. Actually in every election all political parties double down their commitment on quota. These folks generally speaking hardly want to work in any business corporations which is not owned by government. So their participation on non-governmental corporations is meagre. Personally interviewed so many candidates but hardly find them applying for private or public listed corporations. As regards women participation, it's already happening at rapid pace and they were traditionally too used to contribute more in un-organized sector.
The caste system is not limited to your class，You are middle class but most Indians are proletarian，Did you forget that the Indian constitution states that India is a socialist country?
Is india a rich country?
NO.
So poor people are much more than rich people.nearly 80% .
So instead of 60% reservation for lower castes,if they change to 60 % reservations for poor.,that party will be in power for next 20 years.
So its a lie to say to cancel caste based reservations will end political careers.
@@common-sense99 Please come out of this socialist and leftist mindset ... no one whether poor or rich, lower or upper castes or on the basis of creed , race, religiosity etc. should ever be given reservation or any opportunity whether job or education, period. Now let me handle the leftist question (the poor card)... anyone can pursue any opportunity through education and hard work so why they should be given preference over others just because his or her parents are poor. If there is financial difficulty paying college tuition then get education loan and pay back later. Why tax payer should fund education of someone and especially if the person is older than 17 years.
@@SK-gh4cf i agree with you.i am no leftist.but a realist.
Caste based reservations served their purpose and no longer required.
Ages pass and ones descendends will belong to same caste.so if caste is basis for reservations ,then they can never be removed and the caste people will resist its termination but if economic state is basis for reservation as the beneficiaries become rich ,their children cannot avail it and so they want it terminated and as country becomes developed,slowly the beneficiaries become minority and it will be automatically abolished.
Try studying or getting education loan when you don't have food to eat and no bank gives loan to poor kids.
@@common-sense99 Thanks for clarifying your point. But I am not too convinced. All sorts of reservation programs are evil. Anyone once turned 17 years is no more a kid. The education (degree programs) are not meant for everyone. If someone has a passion for specific field of study and have no money to pay for tuition then get the loan and payback when employed. Its so simple. But why should any taxpayers or parents pay for anyone's college degree ? If one can't earn enough to pay back education loan then that degree is absolutely useless. India needs skilled people and not degreed people. Second one can pursue their academic goals later in life when they become self sufficient to pay tuition. They can acquire skills (welder, carpenter, electrician, hairdressing, farming, masonry, crafting, technician, material handler, chef etc.) and make a living.
Thank You for being a "bridge builder, peace ambassador, and man of good will".
Your factual and nonconfrontational presentations, podcasts, interactions are effective and well received.
You educate without condemning or condescending.
I am a "super senior" in the USA who knows the consequences of War vs Peace. I think you help move the audience more towards Peace. For this, I am grateful.
The so called democratic process is a con factor in economic development: what India needs is a powerful central government which could pool the resources of the country and take effective and efficient actions to implement sensible plans solidly. The 10 km HSR after five years story reflects all the weakness in the system that needs improvement.
I think India needs a leader who cares about all Indians regardless the race, caste, or religion. Now the current PM is very divisive. He plays divide and rule, Divide et Impera just like his colonial master. Modi should learn from Indonesian president, Joko Widodo, the best president for a democratic country.
Most Indians are brainwashed into believing something that will hold them back.
India have a lot of talented youngsters. But their politician corruption is beyond control. India need to fix it before even talk about becoming 2nd world biggest economic.
India should stop Dreaming About catching up with china big up china 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾from Africa
Simple answer, as a Indian .. we never thought it’s our own country.. we damaged it in all aspects…( corruption, dirty, religion , cast, language ).. no cohesion among people
Its you dont put we
Great job, Wumao. Here is your 50c!
@@sandeepchauhan5271 Why couldn't he talk as a voice of India? If you do not agree with him, I would be interested in watching you arguing your facts.
For the U.S. to decouple from China is supposed to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. If that moves to other countries like lndia, the situation will just deteriorate for the U.S and Americans won't let that happen.
US will not create another power house like china again. US will not make the same mistakes twice.
Dude, there is no way you can bring mid to low end manufacturing back to U.S. Its not possible!! Not enough people to work, quality worker who possess good work ethic. TSMC was forced by the United States to set up factories in the United States to make high-end chips. Look at what the chairman of TSMC said, the cost of manufacturing plants in the United States is as high as 50 percent, the operating yield is also very low, and the staff is insufficient. No one wants to work overtime. Us investment manufacturers are losing money, TSMC because of US capital. So they were forced to move to the United States, but in fact it is losing money. Even high-end manufacturing is a failure, how can low-end manufacturing be possible. May I ask where the material comes in? Here in the United States? Does that raise costs? Is there a manufacturer that processes these materials? The United States does not have the capacity to process rare earths, and 70 percent of the world's rare earth processing comes from China, the vast majority of metal materials processing comes from China. This is not only the increase of labor costs, but also the improvement of all material processing and development. No company, including an American one, would do that unless it wanted to go out of business. Even if we move to India, Vietnam, material processing and import are all imported from China, but it is the lowest terrace assembly in India.
India will not catch up to China for at least 50 years from today... China speed in one year India needs 10 years... do your calculation... 10 years from now the gap will become wider between China and India .. when you want something said ask India and when you want something done ask China.. India rely too much on IT intellectual which no tangible assets to move forward.. India will have to compete with emerging countries in Vietnam..Laos..Philippines..
African countries..Latin American countries...China has already laid out the foundation to move its factories today to these emerging markets.via BRI... US and EU markets are contracting and their economies are in shambles... India will have to compete with others... China has already set up its dual circulation to offset any future market turmoil.. India will face an acute food deficiency in the next 5 years which will jeopardise its progress...
That is why I also believe China's factory of tomorrow will be ahead again soon.
You forgot water shortage.
@RELIGION IS THE BIGGEST LIE
India was a grain exporter but for the last two years they are importing to substitute for net loses in grain production ..... come next five years in view of climate change... increasing fertilizers cost... water shortages .increasing population .... decreasing yield grain production India will face a huge task to feed its population.. poor infrastructure and poor grain storage also contribute to grain wastages....
@RELIGION IS THE BIGGEST LIE Don't you follow the news? Just this year India banned rice exports 2 times because of costs. And their population is still growing meaning more mouths to feed.
@RELIGION IS THE BIGGEST LIE - India also has exceedingly high level of malnutrtion, hunger and stunting precisely because they export so much food. The average Indian is getting even shorter whereas the average Chinese is now as tall as the average American.
Honestly, I do hope India becomes the largest economy to surpass US and China. In this case, the US will take its eye of the Modor away from China and let China continues to develop its own path and take care of its own people. That will be a win-win situation for both India and China.
US will not create another china ever again😅
@jlin3131 Opportunity always remains just people's views changes, India is grabbing opportunity ryt now
@jlin3131In Manipur two local tribes are fighting over land rights & now it's calming, Manipur.
@jlin3131 🤣🤣🤣🤣 only 1% live in extreme poverty & till 2025 extreme poverty in India will be 0.1 & In India Women are called as Goddess, I think u must have seen some accidents in backward area but they also don't treat man Better. Short weight babies 😂😂 I don't wtf is this. What influence u r talking Indian Diaspora is everywhere, UK's PM is Indian, USA's VP is Indian,Purtgal's PM is Indian, many Indian origin are MP in Parliament of US,UK, Australia, Canada & many countries. Alphabet, Microsoft & many more top companies CEO's are Indians, NASA has 30% Indian scientists, INDIAN scientists, doctors & engineers are everywhere leading the world, While Chinese Diaspora is negligible outside China, I think u have 0% knowledge about India go and collect some data first
@jlin3131 LoL China itself f it's companies like Ali baba & Jack Ma 🤣🤣🤣🤣 plus torture US companies since decades now India is giving justice by throwing out Chinese companies from India, only very High Technology companies are allowed.
Sir, Iam INDIAN just now watched this video. Great analysis,good suggestions,
Sorry to say I think even an Indian also
not analyz like you sir. Our politicians and Bureaucrats must watch this. . .
Waiting for your next video. 🙏
India will never become the next China for many reasons..1 .. culture difference which Chinese were very productive and Indian not.. 2 ..Language barrier with India have over over 300 languages with Hindi not wildly spoken throughout the country , whereas for Mandarin were wildly spoken in China ..3 .Chinese very hardworking and eager to learn which the Indian not really..4 ..Many top Chinese elite were serving China while Indian top elite were serving US and UK..,therefore how India is going to rise with their top talents serving US and UK ...5 ..India with very lousy infrastructure which the railways system come with different sizes for many provinces 6 ..Taxation with provinces ...My take is that India can't replace China as the next manufacture hub..
India's infrastructure has been developing rapidly since the last decade along with it's military expenditure and equipment. The population of skilled workforce, huge gdp growth rate having recently overtaken uk tells you otherwise. India will be a superpower on par with china whether you like it or not, india has been the world's sole superpower in it's ancient history for a thousand years contributing 25% to the world's gdp.
India will always be India.
@@deusmachinima1189 That's what you think, however everyone have a pair of eyes to see for themselves whether India infrastructure have improved or not.
Development is dynamic, and things change.
1 - Culture can be incentivized and change in a generation. China now having a lay-flat & let-it-rot problem.
2 - India can always implement an official language like English or Modern Standard Hindi
3 - Generalization, a lot of US Company CEOs are Indian
4 - China also had a brain-drain problem, talent will go where the money & opportunities are. India needs to provide more employment opportunities and move up the value chain, and the problem will fix itself.
5 - India is also building infrastructure at a breakneck pace
6 - Don't know enough about its tax structure to comment. I know it's very corrupt
@@villageidiot8194
4. China also had a brain drain. That was 10 years ago. Today more and more scientists and engineers are moving back to China due to spying accusations.
Talking about nationalism, I think India is more nationalistic than China~
@RELIGION IS THE BIGGEST LIE That's my impression. You may have different view.
That is a topic I need to look into. It surprises me.
@@PascalCoppens Hi Pascal, probably you can have a more statistical conclusion. And I'm interested to know how nationalism would affect the nation's performance also. I take it as a double sided sword. Thanks.
Dont think I agree with his optimistic picture of India catching up with China. India is bogged down with too many issues and cannot even in 100 years be like what China is today. India has religious, cultural racial and political issues which it cannot overcome. Unlike CHina, India is to divisive with its various caste and religious differences. Unless this can be overcome there is no prospect India can even reach China status in the next decade.
Maybe Chindia can do better.
@@sjelucten7150 --- India with China will be a powerful combination and America's worst nightmare!
According to
United Nations china is 14.42trillions economy.
World bank china is 17.77 trillions economy
IMF china is 19.91 trillions economy
Also British wealth was the money looted from India. Industrialization and USA was developed by British with Indian Wealth, approximately 45 Trillion Dollars
Another very good comprehensiveness review of the situation by Pascal. However I would point out that many of the factors cited by Pascal had always been pointed out in analysis from as far back as a5-20 years ago. In history the variables affecting the rise and fall, both economically and geopolitically, are generally the same. It is the reactions to mix and qualitative character of the variables that will determine history. Some factors not talked about in this analysis is China's BRI, the rise of Eurasia as an entity, De-desertification impact of China, climate change, and many others. Demography is a factor that is overrated - downfall of the Malthus and starvation. If population is a great factor - England should have never arisen. Demography was overcome by guns, slavery, and colonization. The new slave and colonial subject is the robot and AI. Eegardless of human efforts, Pandemic has already future economic and geopolitical future of many nations. The future has yet to be written.
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One thing which is very sure is India will become India . It doesn't need to next China but it will be a future India where you will find everything not just economic but also great social life. We are growing and will grow fast. It is in our DNA. We are just reclaiming our position. It will happen. Maybe little late but it will get there
corruption/greed, lack of quality education, infrastructure, colonial bureaucracy are the problems!
They are too petty and argumentative but the worse thing is that nasty caste system.
For India to develop better, it must first establish good integrity, from government to individuals。In fact, my biggest impression of the Indian government and people is that they are untrustworthy and risky to work with
Dear Pascal,
While I seriously listen to what you have been speaking for the past years, I found that your analysis of India vs. China is off the mark. Briefly my reservations are (1) you said that the demographics of India is favorable compared to China as the population growth of India far exceed that of China: having a much bigger population growth without healthcare, job prospect, community support, government support will lead to disaster rather than any hopeful phenomenon (2) the kind of infrastructure that is in existence in India currently is a nightmare for investors, let alone in catching up with China, eg in highway from New Delhi to Accra, there were camel carts, tricycles, breakdown bikes, cars, badly maintained buses & lorries, cows lying in the middle of roads, etc. (3) the case system will never be able to be eradicated and is a hindrance to progress (4) massive social problems eg corruption of whichever levels, rapes, robbery, enforcement etc. (5) the educational system where buying of degrees are rampant (6) a pseudo-democracy where it serves no purpose in a poor and corrupted society (7) most glaring of all Indians generally talk a lot than actually doing works/things of substances.
Pascal, at the end of the day while some of your understanding of China and the Far East are insightful yet there is much of your analyses do not hold water
1. As China is a aging population...all the production will shift to india as we more worker
2. Every yr the fdi is keep on increasing China will destroy a town just to make a road ..India is democracy and we care for our our citizens
3.?
4.china as more social problem because people have no right ...they can't even critisize their own govt
5. Yet the leading ceo of all major company are indian and india export 200 billion form it it sector... proves there is no lack of quality
6. Lol nonsense we have electron voting system...we cannot be rigged.
7. Yep largest digital transaction ..China is way behind.
You have very Poor understanding about india .
He'll learn from all the comments here.
Well said.. 👍
K choong chinese propogandist get proper facts on india first.
U should focus on what ur saying
It’s possible but it’s very hard bc of some many reasons
1.rigid government policy
2.infrastructuren
3. Supply chain issue
4. Communal conflict
5. Too much corruption
and the caste system is of utmost importance to be mentioned.
As a indian i would say india can be next china because of current good government of modi and many other educated central ministers. As far Chinese government has started the problem of invasion of Taiwan and towards india but no other countries fight against china like how india do and That's what Biden found india as a KEY PARTNER against china in Taiwan issue.
The project called aatmanirbhar Bharat (self reliant india or make in india) has become successful as Modi innaguated it 2021 but within one year , he knows only private industries can develop nation. So he given full power to them especially defence industries and demand other countries to establish their factories in india .
That's why now india holds rank 1 in IMF, first country to produce more than 100 million vaccine and supplies to world, made world's most deadliest lch (prachand lch ) and now new upgrade of tejas with Brahmos ng has beat the Chinese airforce rank and now india holds rank 3.
Because of china, the world is recognised india and our nation is 45% developed, 51% developing and 4% underdeveloped according to current data of indian government. Luckily india beat British economy, so because of this india is now A BIG HEADACHE to china .
Great video sir. U explained some points that i don't know also. I appreciate for that ❤️
Lots of Chinese here predicting Indian future...
Please do a prediction about the Wuhan VIRUS ending in CHINA too... Because it ended almost from all over the world but china 🤣🤣
Shows how good are their medical capabilities
And yes USSR too had boosted about themselves 🤣🤣
Endia can't even handle the Wuhan virus with many suffocating over lack of oxygen.
On the geopolitical side, China is catching up to the US.
If India is catching up to China, it is natural for India to catch up to the US.
How would the US respond? How would India respond to the response?
I believe we have seen a glimpse of that since war in Ukraine...they don't follow blindly what US expects them to do. Of course, that could change as they become a threat to US.
India know very well! Should China fall, they are the next.
@@PascalCoppens Mr. Pascal
I watched your video for the first time today and even saw the comments.
I usually used to believe that my Indian friends are emotional but I see the nationalistic fervor in chinese as well.
Well, if you are coming to India for a world class city, you will definitely be dissappointed. Also the inequality is huge in India.
Just bear one thing in mind that for a democratic and diverse country like India, change isn't as fast. That's one of the downside of the democracy
@@PascalCoppens See,
India have boarder issues with China and Nothing with USA,
American and Indian people have many similarities (Democracy , Speaks English)
Communist party of China will always exist but one day will come , a new friendly Russian president will come who will be friendly to Europe.
USA friends like Israil , Japan, France, UAE, Britain, and Austrailia are also friends of India.
@@PascalCoppens
Can India be the next Bangladesh? It is questionable.
In South Asia, of course, Bangladesh is outclassed by its giant neighbor, India, and its former mother country, Pakistan. However, now things have changed. Its economy is growing fast and convincing. Since 2015, the country is growing faster than many countries in the world. The average growth (before the pandemic) was 8%, while in 2020, when almost all countries are in recession, Bangladesh continues to grow at a positive 3.8% (according to IMF estimates.
Judging from World Bank data, in 2021 Bangladesh's per capita income (US$ 2,503) has surpassed India's (US$ 2,277). It looks like this trend will continue for years to come and India will be left behind. This certainly came as a surprise to many Indians, as in 2015 India's per capita income was still around 40% higher than Bangladesh's.
This news is certainly not easily 'accepted' by the Indian public, who 'still' think that their neighbor (Bangladesh) is a poor country that has been sending cheap and uneducated workers to India. It may be that, in India, and in many other countries in the world, whatever is good about Bangladesh is under-reported, while what is bad always has a place in the international media. Bangladesh's impressive economic success in recent years has taken many by surprise, and has now become the subject of discussion in the western, Indian and Chinese media.
Mr Coppens,
I am an Indian residing in Mumbai. There are things which western people don't understand about India. China wants to prove things to the world they are consumed by a desire to exonerate themselves from the humiliation of being subjugated.
Indians are made of a different fibre. We forget the past and focus on sustainable growth. Growth for rapid growth is not really that important for India. What's important is steady growth and sustainable growth addressing inequality and without destroying the ecosystem. I don't think India wants to be like China. Manufacturing will kill farming, pollute our water and destroy our culture. Capitalism and corruption has ensured that the inequality is the largest in the world.
Lastly, think about a simple thing - India has maintained a steady growth of about 7--8% GDP and Inflation has been around 7%. So nominal GDP is about 14-15% and if that continues for another 15 years India will grow from $ 3 Trillion to about $ 15 - 20 trillion GDP. If we don't destroy ourselves with a blistering pace this will be quite good. I listened to your video with some interest. You might be right about some things but also a lot of myths and a lot of canards...plus you missed some other important points.
I wish you luck and a good time in India. Welcome to India. 🙏
I like this. The west isn't a model to follow and India has survived for thousands of years so it must be doing some things better than most.
India can never be like China and visa versa .. China adopted Buddhism from India and it become a part of Chinese culture but unfortunately Buddhism was not a part of Indian culture ,,, Buddhism was at it zenith during the reign of Asoka the Great but decline after that... there are two classes distinction of Indian in India...one that posses the knowledge of English while the others did not... the earlier tends to portray a sense of privilege and aloofness against those that are not proficient in English...India also are experiencing a brain drain problem where all those good brains are migrating to US /UK and Western countries ....
@@CarpsterKing India and Indians have no need to compare ourselves to others. If you Chinese feel you are superior to Indians or that Indians are inferior to Chinese in both cases you haven't understood what Buddha taught. Buddhism is derived from Hinduism and inherits almost 80-90% of its ethos from Hinduism.
About the rest of the myths you propound, there is an old Americanism - what do you get when you mix chocolate chips with bullshit? No matter what you do it's still bullshit!
@@jessehorstman I don't think we Indians would judge whether the West is good or East is good. The basic idea is to be contented, grow at a steady pace and make sure that we are in harmony with our Ecosystem. If that happens we are happy. We don't want to be in a race with others. We just want a roof over our heads, food on the table and decent clean clothes to wear. As long as we can sustain this kind of existence with a lot of greenery around us we will be happy.
@@CarpsterKing here comes a chinese using vpn and giving opinions on youtube... Go and watch billi billi or other ccp regulated media this is not for you .... 😂
If you ask that question to Vodafone, FORD, McDonald’s, xiaomi, Coca-cola, etc… the answer will be a hard NO.
Well
1. Vodafone didn't succeed because the better companies like jio and airtel provided better,cheaper services
2. Ford, Mac donalds and others because India has its homegrown brands which outperformed these foreign peers
@@balajeepratham8200 "Ford, Mac donalds and others because India has its homegrown brands which outperformed these foreign peers" less inclusive or nationalism.
@@Coumei2009 Are you mad?
Maruti Suzuki and japanese honda make cheaper cars. They are more competitive and so they sell more
Isn't this capitalism?
@@balajeepratham8200 American made cars are cheaper than Japanese made car. You don't know because you don't have.
@@Coumei2009 My God
Sorry I can't speak to fools like you
Come here and check the prices.
The version of Honda here is way cheaper
India will become India..we have our own identity and we are sitting on our grond 🙏
If India wants to compare with China, it should first solve the problems of land reform, caste system, basic and higher education, unified language and power of central government,after we can talking about it
If you don't about cast system in india don't tell about it first you learn about indian history and cast system then tell about it
@@Shichafamilycomedy भाई कहना क्या चाहता है? हिंदी में ही बोल ना
I saw one more comment on cast system. What Mr Rajiv Malhotra wrote in his books Snakes in Ganga about Harvard University is being proved correct.
@@mlg5015 What is the theme of the book
Lots of talk about India's IT prowess. I'm curious what software India is renowned for or if their tech companies have proprietary software or run their own big platforms like Google, Baidu, Tencent, Weibo etc? Does anyone know?
I have retired for a long while and so my experience will be outdated. A lot of software development including coding and testing were out-sourced to India, sometimes an entire system and sometimes components.
Unified Payment Interface (UPI)
@JoJoKoKo UK That network is managed by the biigest scammer ever - Narendra Modi
When Covid ravages India, they reported a total of 4,000 deaths/month, where ONLY ONE State of India reported 40,000 death certificates in 5 months
Most of the Indian elites have gone to Silicon Valley.
@@joestki There you see, India still do not have propriety software and platforms. The next wave are 6G, AI and quantum technology which China is one of the leading country unlike India who has not made any headway in these new technologies and so whatever India has now will be obsolete soon.