Friedman képes azt mondani, hogy az USA békés irányba fogja vezetni a világrendet. Egy 2015-ös előadásában még azt ecsetelte, hogy az amerikai érdek az, hogy mindenütt a világon békétlenséget szítson, az oszd meg és uralkodj elv alapján.
@@IpSyCo In broad strokes maybe, but not as a crystal ball. No one predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, for example. To use a more mundane example, George Friedman predicted that the UK would never vote to leave the EU.
@@stevej71393 that means he dident study history enough cause england isolated its self from the rest of europe like 5 or 6 times cant remember right in the last 2500 years
Thank you for this video! Sometimes what we perceive as "knowledge" may be based on propaganda, wishful thinking and misperception... I come from a former communist country (Bulgaria) and I realize that the world knew about us only what the regime wanted to be known. In this regard, the media image of the communist countries can be characterized as an "iceberg" - 80% is bellow the surface. As we know today, back then the system looked quite monolithic and formidable, but 31 years after the official collapse of communism in my country it is amazing to realize how weak, vulnerable and unsustainable the regime actually was. NOW we KNOW what in reality the situation was...
Many of his claims about history are incorrect. Many people in 1920 believed that Germany could rise again. In fact, in 1918 a number of generals accurately forecast that Germany would be at war by 1940. Britain realized as early as 1880 that it was in comparative decline to its rivals. This well known and recognized.
You forgot an important point. Ideology and culture . American education is a disaster . Town and cities devastated by drugs . Average American iq 97 , average Chinese IQ 107 . How far behind are we on math and science . Antiquated educational system like American colleges that force students to waste the most productive years of their life studying things they don’t need in practice so they can pay tuition to college owners . In many part of the world you finish high school with a bachelors then you go straight to university and in 4 or more years you are physicist chemistry or engineer . In USA you get to that in 8 yrs 4 of college and 4 more of graduate school with a ton of debt . The technology field in USA is completely dependent on foreigners ! You can’t build chip factories bc you don’t have the educated people to run those factories . These endemic problem won’t go away bc college owners lobby politician for their system . Lobbying is a corrupted endemic cancer along with colleges . American serious issues far exceeds the Chinese counter part . We have serious ideological cultural and societal issues that will bring our demise and We lack the intelligence to figure it out and act on . Nato western financial system and American military industrial complex is the only good thing of the west that keeps up still afloat . I don’t know for how much longer .
for the whom made this subtitle in korean 12:56 it says "the most important thing in forecasting is the strength, not the weakness" it is directly opposite what he said
The US has been invading or sanctioning every major oil exporter that is in competition with Saudi Arabia, one after the other, for 20 years, right after a terrorist group born and bred in the kingdom and aided by several officials in the Saudi consulate bombed iconic public buildings in the US. Since the US has almost always been a lawless bully bandit outside its shores, acting ethically is too much to ask. Instead, at least a foreign policy that served the majority of our citizens' best interests would be nice. That would likely mean cutting our military by about 1/2, as it is simply a giant corrporate contractor bonanza, hell bent on driving our credit worthiness and currency value downward, all while killing untold innocent millions without ever winning any wars. Tens on tens on tens of wasted trillions that might have been spent domestically to let "we the people" catch up to Europe, Japan and Australia.
I don't see how speaker can say China is already risen but not rising, given that the per capita GDP of China today is still less than 1/6 of USA's. I feel like it's as if saying to a 12 year old that you are not growing anymore because you have already grown? With such a competitive market based job market and such hard working workers, and such a fast growing consumer market which is still very early in the level of consumption as compared to mature economies, how could China not continue to rise until at least 2-3 times US economic size, and to at least 1/3-1/2 per capital GPD of USA, before someone can entertain the idea of China being close to "not rising". In fact, there should be even a possibility that China can attain the same per capital GDP as USA, which will mean that in aggregate China may even be 400% the size of USA. Today, China is about 70% of USA. So where is the rationale for the speaker's prediction that China has peaked? Or is it just speaker's hope?
Just a thought, I agree with him that we invented ourselves and that we can reinvent ourselves and will reinvent ourselves whether it’s good or bad is for history to judge but I do enjoy his analysis🤔
Wishful thinking from Friedman. This guy has been wrong all along in the last 20 years. Poor America, if this is the best they have to offer, I pity them.
We/America control 80% of the Global supply chain, and Extract 80% of the Profits!! :) Poor Arab world has one product/oil that is less and less valuable, due to the demographics of Europe /East Asia/renewables and Fracking! :) Enjoy the decline!
@@ClarksonsinUSA Seriously, there is a decoupling happening as we speak and the one with manufacturing power will prevail in the long run. I think it will be China just because of the sheer number of people out there. They will outproduce the US. Most don't know this because of political rhetoric but the US manufacturing output per capita is about 4 times of China. But since the US is currently not moving up and China is. We can assume that production per capita will be equivalent at some point and in absolute numbers 4-5 times higher.
With cost of “black gold” at 15-23 dollars per barrel, the USSR economy collapsed, and the sovok itself collapsed, and the "golden" horde ("russia") budget can only be fulfilled only with oil price at $ 42.4 and higher
Chinas current annual credit (non shadow banking) equals 550 billion USD monthly. That is the equivalent of 40% of its gdp. How is this system in anyway sustainable? This trend is present without covid (see 2008-19). Since the vast majority of Chinese credit is facilitated through state owned corps it is fair to compare it to the US federal deficit. Current Chinese lending is equivalent (in relative terms) of 5 Trump stimulus packages in a year. The amount of corruption associated with PPP loans in the states (which is only seen because the US is a free state with free press), has to be far more endemic in China which is far less developed and has far higher levels of corruption. Can the CCP keep this up forever? Surely at some point the Chinese economy has to fizzle. Its not so much that economic growth will collapse, but that chinese savers and consumers will realize that their differed consumption has been squandered by the CCP on useless 'investment' that generates no returns. To keep the sharade going, China has to keep building roads and buildings which serve little purpose (building 5 bridges that cross the same river serves no economic utility), eventually the mal investment will reach such a level that the entire system faces a liquidity crisis. Coupled with an aging population (with little to no money invested/saved for retirement), the economic impacts will be brutal. China will have to spend 200-300% of its gdp bailing out the entire system (or risk societal collapse). Which will almost certainly lead to it getting kicked from wto (bailout will confirm currency manipulation + unfair subsidies). China wont so much collapse (the CCP will never let it collapse), as fizzle out into irrelevance (like Japan). Its economy will still be significant (as japan's economy is today), but will be eclipsed in robustness by her enemies.
But China's military will only continue to expand. It will be the ruler of the heartland, and possibly (if the ccp has the foresight) eclipse the US military in mainland Asia (in both spending, personal and manpower). It will never be able to conquer the first island chain, but will certainly be able to quell rebellions, defend against India, and possibly expand into South east asia.
@@Multi407D if we calculate and compare actual project costs, for example 100kms of high speed rail costing $200 million in China vs 50 billion in the USA, Covid treatment costing $2000 in China vs $1.5 million in the US, the actual Chinese economy would in fact be 500 trillion US dollars today. You know full well that 95% of the US economy is simply the movement of money in various financially calibrated bettin contracts, the other 5% is high tech development that heavily relies on foreign talent. You tell me which one is heading for a collapse
@@datruzepp us consumption market is as big as the EU, China, Japan and India combined. All finished products are sold in the Us. If the US “collapses” China is fucked. But I guess we will see in 10 years.
HE IS A FOOL,,HE HAS BEEN BIAS,A HUNGARIAN ZIONIST JEW,BECOMES AMERICAN ..AND CANNOT GIVE IT UP..HE HAS BEEN BRONG,THE LAST 30 YEARS AN EXPERT MU FOOT...
@@dragonfly1929 if you go look at actual numbers (and there are a lot) when it comes to it if and that’s a big IF China does surpass the US it won’t likely be but a blip. They have massive demographic problems coming into play. Combine that with the fact that the rest of the world isn’t as eager to take them at their word anymore and it is very likely they won’t maintain their position long. In 2019 the US became younger than China as a nation and it’s only going to keep getting younger. China Japan and Russia are all going to be hit hard over the next 50yrs.
How do you explain peace by bombing Iraq , Afghanistan , Syria , Libya and killing tens of thousands of children and women ? Is that Peace ? What if that bombings was done to Belgium , Austria , France , Netherlands and Other Christian nations ? How does it feel and how does it effects you especially christian nations ?
He explained it beforehand, he said he would comparatively "pack" timeframes of 20 years and thus explain its dynamics pack by pack, i take that he means at the end of each of these packs... look 00:20 of the video.
In the times of proxy wars, where WW2 battles are rare, Friedman under plays the importance of domestic conflicts, the use of foreign backings of rival factions, and civil wars. I wouldn’t be suprised if BLMTIFA has international fundings.... oh wait it does. He really needs to update his talking points. I wonder what happens if he merged his ideas with Mencius Modlbugs “Cathedral”
Ukraine as well . Supporting Nazis - and in Germany they use so much media Manipulation like those debates about women quota in jobs so stupid everything . They think it will be more justice then such fools 😑😑
I read his book in 2009 (the world in 2100). According to his book, China should have collapsed under its internal wealth inequality by 2020 and would never become a superpower and Russia should have collapsed around 2020 by the cost of maintaining its army and by maneuvering of a US satellite army near the Russian border 'without bloodshed'. While the US is able to overcome everything. No doubt the US is still the strongest power by far, but it appears he underestimates other countries abilities to also overcome problems.. After all we are all human and work with the same universal laws.
@@WorldIsWierd having issues vs collapsing. Russia might well collapse due to the invasion of Ukraine but that’s not exactly ‘without bloodshed’ and even that will take some years provided there is no peace treaty first. How is China going to collapse imminently?
Here is my forecast. Leaders and rich men are woefully inept act looking deeply into human history in order that they might be able to Accurately peer far into the future to see what will happen if the course is not changed and plan for a more successful human future. Because of this ineptitude, our leaders, rich men and academics will continue to lead us along the same path that we have continuously followed and failed since the advent of civil society. Empires rise and Empires fall for a very simple reason. They fail to regulate their size, their oppression and their growth through conquest instead of cooperation. You can't form an empire through cooperation andfreedom. It recognizes the sovereignty and power of nations. Empires rely on oppressing their subject states by increasingly using militaries of oppressed nations that don't willingly serve. While the empire is greedy to ever expand the oppressed gain numbers and power to fight against the thinning strength of the regime and cast it down into oblivion. The world is being divided up between 2 axis powers, today. One built on the cooperation of its leaders, without the support of their subjected peoples with the intent of global domination, and the other through the cooperation of nations of people who hate the other power and, through conquests of unwilling nations, with the intent to resist the intended domination of their nations. This can only end in a war unlike any in human history. It will be bloody. Even if those who seek to dominate ultimate succeed, they miss the lessons of our history. Empires, and even small nations, will always fracture from within, even when formed peacefully through cooperation. The reason is simple. There is always going to exist those who want to rise to power and those who don't want to be ruled. And among those who don't want to be ruled, you will find many who want to rise to power. If the empires break up, we will still have wars because of these forces. If nations break up, factions will still fight. Even among neighbors and villages. Whether large or small, they can mightily oppress enslave and murder all who resist, as soon as they arise. Thete will always more sprout up, until no person is left to rule. If they kill every person and there are only 2 left on the Earth, through cooperation one will eventually rise against the other and kill him because one will seek to rise and exercise authority over the other. The only way a global empire can exist is when there is no one left to rule.
Always interesting to see some strategic anaylsis on this topic. Nevertheless, Friedman always gets it wrong when it comes to economics. Within the next 20 years the financial capital of the world will shift from the US to China as it did shift from Britain to the US 70 years ago. China will have developed the biggest domestic market in the world with a population size surpassing the US and Europe combined by 50%. Chinas relative position strengthens much quicker than that of Germany in the 1800s as the Western economies of today mainly direct their ressources to consumption. The Chinese entered the Western economic system only 40 years ago and already managed to surpass many of its Western competitors in terms of productivity and innovation. For the moment the military potential of the US remains superior which might change over the next two decades, too. I also expect that Chinas local rivals Japan and South Korea won‘t be willing to participate in an ongoing blockade that mainly suits American interests and would likely lead to a full blown military conflict on their own doorstep.
The Chinese population outnumbers the US population by 3-4 times, they only integrated a third of those people into the modern style economy today, they work longer, they work harder, they have the smartest people in the world along with their neighbours in SK, Jp, Taiwan which enables them to rebuild and improve the most advanced goods and technologies and as a consequence will become the financial capital of the world within the next 20 years. So, if they are not going to tear the whole thing down by themselves they will rise to the top.
China is rapidly aging due to their old one child per family policy. Sure they've stopped that policy now but there just isn't enough young people to continue pushing their economy as hard as it's already going today. Demographics are hard to change.
The financial capital will not shift to China as long as there is a perception that there is no rule of law (impartial judiciary) and/or that massive government confiscation is a serious possibility.
I certainly hope that US and the american general mindset toward international relations won't decline. The international stability and peace depends on it. I don't want to live in a world where the political mindset of the current Russian or Chinese government is dominant.
Boiled down to a couple sentences: 1) America's economy is a reflection on the entire world and, how the world interacts with it. I see a world of growing "Economic Blocs" looking for a way out of America's predatory economic system. That's not say they don't want to do business - that is to say, the world wants more equal footing in that business with the US. 2) The decision in the late 70s and early 80s of the Anglo American Establishment (England, Canada, United States, Australia and New Zealand) to move towards "Financial Capitalism" (de-industrialization by its inverse term) was a mistake that hollowed out ALL of the world's middle class. Since 2008/09, the world has been struggling to deal with a debt load that tax bases and citizens can no longer "borrow" there way out of (that's what happened in 2008, the credit markets completely collapsed). The collapse of a stable "centre" has seen movement back to nation states seeking sustainability rather than trading partners. This usually leads to a push for dominance (war). 3) China faces the exact same problems Germany did in 1914. Interestingly, they are turning to Russia for aid (with its vast resource wealth) in building a bloc to challenge the Anglo America Establishment. But, overall, the Chinese stand looking at the same existential issue Germany did - they have zero projection into the vast ocean logistics of the world. This means they cannot forever keep the initiative in a war against the world and will eventually have to play defence (where they will certainly lose). As the 1930s - the 2020s are going to be a decade where the end result dictate the rest of the century.
@@thelumpenproletariat6393 China have the capability now to push the US military out of the first island chain during a war. That means the US is no longer able to roam the seas as free as they used to be. Once China have taken Taiwan the West Pacific Ocean will be theirs, they can do it now but just do not want to rock the boat at this stage as they play low to build more strengths. China is not Germany because they have a much much larger population with a fully industrialised economy. It will be impossible to pin them down on the ground by any means. If the Anglo American Establishment want to isolate China, they can form their own trading block along one belt one road and exclude the Anglos'. Many people said US is holding China on 2 balls-The USD system and Chip manufacturing. But Chinese are preparing spare tire for that too. The Anglos has no options other than the win-win option with cooperation with China.
@@stevec9470 China doesn’t have a single super carrier to match the US. The US has 10 aircraft carriers all with more air power than the entire Chinese air force itself. You must be dumb to think China could actually push us out of the first island chain.
Idiots pay to listen to his verbal farts a typical usa and zionists propaganda lies To his own children who die for his propaganda lies Vietnam Afghanistan children born with terrible deformities how many Jewish children born suffer this evil Perpetrated by Europeans and usa and Australians Due to the holocaust NONE hang your head in shame you hav no moral standards to Dictate to any one
When he mentioned UK in 1900 with glory and no one could anticipate its coming decline, he might want to imply that China is in the some situation today. But why cloud not be the USA's situation in 2000. I don't think that America is really declining. The problem for the US is that not only China is rising, other countries are rising, Asean countries, African countries etc, but the USA refuses to admit it or to adapt itself to it. The rises of other countries means America can not longer be the exception, at least not longer be the only exception.
check out peter zeihan. he basically says america bribed up the world to fight the ussr. thats how the globalized world was created. however the ussr has collapsed and america has not updated what it wants next from the world, since the collapse of the ussr was the goal of this global interconnection it created. This is a problem because as we maintained the global order, our own infrastructure was neglected (detroit was a car maker city, until we started to import cars from other countries). So us stepping away is not a sign of weakness but a sign of disinterest and stepping back from the position of world police and focus internally (one of bidens slogan "build back, build better"). as a result other nations are "rising", but then again they are not. Demographics of the world shows all the countries in the world experienced a baby bust, except for a few including america. meaning there will be no internal consumption or much less of it. check peter zeihan out
I wonder what he would say now. His claims are mostly invalid. US is no longer the largest customers of China export, EU and ASEAN are. In addition, US tried to detach from China, but it's proven it can not. I don't think this guy really understands China and his view of geopolitics is pretty biased.
could you elaborate on that? a lot has come true: edelweiss-assets.abovethetreeline.com/RH/supplemental/Flashpoints%20Friedmans%20accurate%20predictions.pdf what part hasn't?
@@PneumaLights flash point was written when fissures is European Union had already become glaringly visible and it was amply clear this Union was not going to become a major power or remain effective. So the book was just an exposition on roots of historic and contemporary fault lines nothing much of a forecast. The books I referred to are the next 100 years and the next decade. In them China was dismissed as a paper tiger and Russia no more than a dying irritant. Major threat to US were Japan, Germany and Turkey!!! George is deeply biased by his family history in Europe whose aversion he just can't subdue and he wants US to succeed and dominate over Europe because his father choose it to escape prosecution and assure the safest abode for his family. That is why scholars must always analyse authors with the their work.
In 50 years, earth has united to fight against the great dictator of Mars "Elon Mask". Because the Marsian had defeated death and don't want shear its technology with earth.
One thing I would add is that while a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a Bad Idea, bad ideas have a tendency to come to fruition when a leader is in a weakened - and weakening - position. This is doubly true if the other side, in this case the U.S., also appears weak at the same time. Wars are frequently the result of one side miscalculating the strength or resolve of the other. I believe this is exactly what is about to unfold in the Taiwan straight sometime in the next couple of years, presuming a Trump victory in the election. Xi Jinping has over the past few years implemented wide-ranging and brutal reforms in the People's Liberation Army, purging generals and sending them to prison for "corruption". Some generals have even been shot. Discipline has been toughened across the board, and President Xi has said on numerous occasions that the army should prepare for war. Putting your military under that kind of pressure, and then not following through by actually using it, is a dangerous thing for an authoritarian leader to do. Authoritarian leaders rule through fear. Appearing weak is the last thing a dictator wants. There is also the issue of a weakening economy and unwelcome demographic shifts down the road. The longer Xi waits to make a move, the less likely he will be able to seek a military solution at all. Xi Jinping is in a "use it or lose it" situation. Couple this with the certainty of domestic political unrest in the United States following a Trump victory (unrest that might very well have been instigated by China itself), and you have an opportunity that is difficult to resist. Xi's calculation would be that a quick assault on Taiwan might shock and confuse the American public enough to delay responding decisively to the attack and instead seek a diplomatic solution. This calculation will be proven false by #1: An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would not see a quick victory, and #2: The American public would be shocked into action rather than complacency. Add any regional allies the United States would bring into the fight, and China would most assuredly be crushed and forced to retreat back to the mainland. Xi Jinping would nevertheless make this attempt because, from his point of view, he really has no choice. A victory would allow him to consolidate his power and refocus on pressing domestic concerns. Inaction would erode his power and cause the Chinese population to lose confidence in the CCP, making needed domestic reforms more difficult. A Biden victory in the election would kick the can down the road a bit. Biden would be more amenable to Chinese interests, so China would be inclined to wait and use diplomacy to erode Taiwan's relationship with the U.S., hoping that Taiwan will surrender or negotiate rather than risk a war without America's involvement. This would be China's preferred option, though personally, I think China is fooling themselves if they think Biden can overcome Trump in light of recent events. Taiwan isn't going to be given to them on a platter.
Good points. Taiwan would be a Pyrrhic victory - as would any other incursion against other countries - no-one likes bully-boy countries or trusts them.
China doesn't depend on US presidents like you obviously beg for. You're the ones more desperate for time and people, but you're still too scared to do anything as you cry about China never turning out like your essays.
@@tritium1998 What is your point, exactly? Do you think China is in a strong enough position that they can engage in any foreign policy they want without considering who the U.S. President is? China's goal might not change, but the way they would pursue it most definitely would.
@Bud Smith All things being what they are now, the US navy could obliterate the Chinese navy in a VERY short period of time. One US navy carrier group has the same firepower as all of the other blue water navies in the world combined. Now consider that there are 11 of these carrier groups, and more on the way, the Chinese navy is insignificant if push comes to shove.
USA no money uses a Ponzi scheme like Australians kiss the royals and USA zionists North Atlantic terrorist organisation NATO Friedman happy th see his young men and woman of usa sent to war to be slaughtered on his so called DEMOCRATIC ideology propaganda lies he should hang his head in shame his verbal farts do not impress me might impress the North Atlantic terrorist organisation NATO his country has a law nobody can charge them with war crimes as his buddy isreal SO FAR Usa no money use a Ponzi scheme MADOFF 50 yrs for him Never mentions when 5 USA banks Collapsed his countrymen slaughtering their own children do nothing 200 million guns on the streets trump still 90 million Followers
China's 2020 GDP of $17.73 trillion is hardly a "fraction" of the $23 trillion GDP by the US. I appreciate many of Friedman's analyses, though he greatly underestimates the power of China, be it economically or militarily.
In a situation where China could emerge to be much powerful in 2040s, I imagine that something more significant would happen somewhere in the world that would make Chinese activities in South China Sea literally out of radar from the world's eyes. This event must be incredibly significant such as an unlikely Putin doing the unthinkable in European theater in a desperate attempt to save himself (worst that could happen is the pressing of nukes... however, I do not see it fully escalating into a nuclear war. It will act as a significant enough of an event that would force the United States to fully focus in Europe.) After that, China could easily swoop in and take control of the seas in South China sea and take hold of this "trade route choke point" and give them more reason to assert militarily (and thus allow their navy to develop further.) What I think China actually lacks despite its great economic power is the water territory that will power up its navy. To simply let your ships drive in your shores feels embarassing as a great nation, therefore to assert more control over a larger water territory like the South China Sea, it would lead to breakthroughs in their naval capabilities. And a great military constitutes to a great power to the people over all (it raises morale and increases the country's influence over the world power table). If we predict that the US remains the most influential by many grades in the future, we can easily see China becoming powerful enough to threaten the US in its position. By then, we really might see a mid 21st century Cold War situation... and it might even be as big as the Cold War during the Soviet Union days.
So he has given assumptions/predictions which could be questioned and then stated how those assumptions/predictions turned out to wrong. That is then his logic for why the current assumption/prediction about China taking the lead on USA may turn out to be wrong. Flawed logic. Those assumptions/predictions stated from the past that proved to be wrong - because we didn't have access to the amount of information that is readily available today.
I HAD A GREAT DREAM LAST NIGHT. Some Turkish men KIDNAPPED GEORGE FRIEDMAN dressed him up like JODIE FOSTER IN THE ACCUSED and bent him over a PINBALL MACHINE. Elton John was singing PINBALL WIZARD.
Tell this man who extols a lot of history about the Korean War. A China ravaged by a civil war and the long battles of WW II beat back the hallowed General MacArthur. That was 70 years ago. The combined Allied Forces were on tap. He got whacked so much he wanted to use nukes. Try peace my friend. War won't get you anywhere
China is facing four issues that limits it potential to becoming the dominant superpower of the world. 1st: they have endemic poverty with no end in sight, and thus cannot be a purchasing power like the US (communism). 2nd: its population is going bust, they just don't have the number of 20 and 30 year olds to support its aging population (thanks to the one child policy). 3rd: China does not have a deep blue water navy, and its geography (1st island chain) is a strategic problem it cannot change. China cannot project naval power like the US (or even Japan). 4th: China imports about 60% of its energy (oil and LNG), and 40% of its food (65% if you count items like fertilizer). Thus, China is vulnerable to supply chain distribution and global trade. The US has no energy or food production issues, as everything is contained within its borders. China's best years, its golden years, have already passed, and its only downhill from here on.
1. That doesn't make sense. 2. Yeah that is kinda a problem, though also not really because of cultural differences 3. It can build a blue water navy though. And it already does that slowly. Maybe China won't be as powerful as the us is right now, but the us won't be as powerful as it is right now too. Also China can have more power projection than japan simply because of their economy 4. First of all that is a reason why they will develop a blue water navy. secondly China can very well grow their own food to supply all of their population. It's just cheaper to buy it elsewhere
One odd but crucial add to CCP’s geographic disadvantages: Bathymetry. The CN coast is 200km to any deep water and very shallow except for Hainan Island, which is where CCP’s main sub barn is located. But it doesn’t really get better. From the SW corner of the SCS basin to the next deep basin of the Andaman Sea is over 2000km. So for 2000km you have this 40-100km depth that simply makes sub-warfare a massive risk. And that’s without active surface/sub countermeasures since mining that would be very possible and effective. One new USN mine, the Hammerhead, can be laid and wait passively, listening, and release independent against sub and surface vessels. This mine would be almost impossible to find! That’s just one of 30+ in development and obviously not by accident. This simple fact, if applied, ends PLAN and non-mil traffic within days. Days. www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a34451548/navys-new-hammerhead-mine/ Also, CN has 0.08 hectares of arable (farmland) per citizen. By comparison, the US has 0.46-0.50 per. A wet bat fart in CN results in starvation as history has shown since CN existed to a point. You’re very correct on all levels. And the demographic implosion is just another nail. 350 million over 65 in the coming years will be a “World problem” per (I can’t recall exactly) the CEO of BlackRock or BlackStone. Think Trillions under management. Down with CCP!
Well, I can tell you for sure that one of those assumptions is wrong. Last time I went to China, I was amazed by how many kids there were. I asked a friend what was going on, is China in a baby boom? She said no, but explained that parents were purposely having 3 kids. They can get around the restriction by having twins on the second kid. There are clinics that specialize in making that happen. They believe they have a shortage of kids... That's their narrative too. But my eyes told me otherwise.
He didn't point out where the conventional knowledge had gone wrong in regards to the colonial era UK, and WW1 Germany. He also himself committed the same mistake of not looking into history to inform the present and future. China was the #1 economy in the world before the 18th century for centuries. To the West, they educate themselves to believe China was always Mao's China forever. The rebirth of China was never mentioned. China is determined to direct her fate and rise peacefully, which unfortunately for the world is not too big a deal for them in light of the rise of the West rooted in colonilism all around the way in the past 500 years.
Who knows what kind of turns lie in the future? There are speculations, The ptobable and the possible and somewhere in between the following scenarios.!
China has fishing trawlers permanently floating all over world like little islands ???? G5 countries have millitary bases dotted all over Africa ....???? And all over the seven seas ???? Foreign countries of northan hemisphere own most of mineral mines and oil in Africa ???? What gives ???
When we 'Brits' first 'unleashed' The Royal Navy's DEADLY £10billion HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier (in 2014), I remember Putin saying it was a "sitting duck" (very funny! :-). Here Friedman classically rebukes: "... aircraft carriers wont disintegrate because we have silly things being said by politicians ...". Hilarious!!!!!!
I read Dr. Friedman's book, and he has a wealth of wisdom.
I love the " be stupid , intelligent people are blinded "
if one contemplate the growth of a tree , one understand empires
The person who can accurately predict the future hasn't been born yet.
but some come closer than others
Friedman képes azt mondani, hogy az USA békés irányba fogja vezetni a világrendet. Egy 2015-ös előadásában még azt ecsetelte, hogy az amerikai érdek az, hogy mindenütt a világon békétlenséget szítson, az oszd meg és uralkodj elv alapján.
History has always unfolded itself with full of surprises. Predicting the future is a difficult game.
History is a good teller of the future.
@@IpSyCo In broad strokes maybe, but not as a crystal ball. No one predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, for example. To use a more mundane example, George Friedman predicted that the UK would never vote to leave the EU.
@@stevej71393 that means he dident study history enough cause england isolated its self from the rest of europe like 5 or 6 times cant remember right in the last 2500 years
@@stevej71393 llllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll
@@stevej71393 yy
Too sophisticated? Too immersed in complexities? This definitely sounds like our current western style. Get ready for a surprise.
Endgame for you as Globalists. Go away and leave us Germans alone!
Thank you for this video! Sometimes what we perceive as "knowledge" may be based on propaganda, wishful thinking and misperception... I come from a former communist country (Bulgaria) and I realize that the world knew about us only what the regime wanted to be known. In this regard, the media image of the communist countries can be characterized as an "iceberg" - 80% is bellow the surface. As we know today, back then the system looked quite monolithic and formidable, but 31 years after the official collapse of communism in my country it is amazing to realize how weak, vulnerable and unsustainable the regime actually was. NOW we KNOW what in reality the situation was...
Hello 👋
Today's China is not Soviet bloc communist, this George guy is taking you blown away with his nostalgia and or utopia.
His predictions in his previous books were way off target. I think it will be the same for the next decades.
He had a weird obsession with a coming war with Japan
God bless America 🇺🇸
I subscribe to his news letter. He is not the only smart guy out there, but he is very much on my short list. I recommend his books as well.
Who are the other smart guys ? Looking for ideas on who to follow.
George Friedman is wrong about almost everything. Just like the rest of the "smart guys".
@@Anon-zb5op For analysis on China - Kishore Mahbubani and Martin Jacques.
@@Anon-zb5op Peter Zeihan for global geopolitics. He's not the whole picture, but lays out the basics to form a decent foundation.
Germany is still occupied, lets be honest.
@Michael because they know the troops won't leave even if they they want. Which was the case in Japan.
@Michael You can deny all you want. and the news link doesn't mean anything. The troops will stay there germany wants it or not. that's a fact.
@Michael Keep dreaming, Michael. You'll get it sooner or later.
England, France and America got Germany by the balls
And if Europe would fall, France would occupy Germany directly and Germans would just watch, never saw such a stupid society like German society
Was he wrong on his book, “The Next Decade”? I read the book in 2011 and been pondering on the book. Was he wrong for the most part?
Not really, it's been a while since I've read it, but I remember him talking about more incursions in the middle east and... we're bombing syria...
Many of his claims about history are incorrect. Many people in 1920 believed that Germany could rise again. In fact, in 1918 a number of generals accurately forecast that Germany would be at war by 1940. Britain realized as early as 1880 that it was in comparative decline to its rivals. This well known and recognized.
this is true for a minority of wishful thinkers, who do not always have to be wrong
His point is that it wasn't the mainstream view. A few prescient geniuses do not a consensus make.
You forgot an important point. Ideology and culture .
American education is a disaster . Town and cities devastated by drugs .
Average American iq 97 , average Chinese IQ 107 .
How far behind are we on math and science .
Antiquated educational system like American colleges that force students to waste the most productive years of their life studying things they don’t need in practice so they can pay tuition to college owners .
In many part of the world you finish high school with a bachelors then you go straight to university and in 4 or more years you are physicist chemistry or engineer .
In USA you get to that in 8 yrs
4 of college and 4 more of graduate school with a ton of debt .
The technology field in USA is completely dependent on foreigners !
You can’t build chip factories bc you don’t have the educated people to run those factories .
These endemic problem won’t go away bc college owners lobby politician for their system .
Lobbying is a corrupted endemic cancer along with colleges .
American serious issues far exceeds the Chinese counter part .
We have serious ideological cultural and societal issues that will bring our demise and
We lack the intelligence to figure it out and act on .
Nato western financial system and American military industrial complex is the only good thing of the west that keeps up still afloat .
I don’t know for how much longer .
Question everything!
Many of the key assumptions and presumptions that he makes a worth researching.
yes indeed, his views are decades out of date.
Vast poverty in interior of China ?!
It has the lowest poverty in the world. In which decade is this guy living ?
Judging from age and thoughts, he is still living in the 60s.
for the whom made this subtitle in korean 12:56
it says "the most important thing in forecasting is the strength, not the weakness"
it is directly opposite what he said
It all depends on circumstances
진짜 그러네요! ㅋㅋㅋ
진짜 그러내 나도 들어보다 이상해서 돌려봤어는데 ㅋㅋ
History is not a curve predicating the progress of nations, but rather the progress of Human Freedom in all forms.
The US has been invading or sanctioning every major oil exporter that is in competition with Saudi Arabia, one after the other, for 20 years, right after a terrorist group born and bred in the kingdom and aided by several officials in the Saudi consulate bombed iconic public buildings in the US. Since the US has almost always been a lawless bully bandit outside its shores, acting ethically is too much to ask. Instead, at least a foreign policy that served the majority of our citizens' best interests would be nice. That would likely mean cutting our military by about 1/2, as it is simply a giant corrporate contractor bonanza, hell bent on driving our credit worthiness and currency value downward, all while killing untold innocent millions without ever winning any wars. Tens on tens on tens of wasted trillions that might have been spent domestically to let "we the people" catch up to Europe, Japan and Australia.
I don't see how speaker can say China is already risen but not rising, given that the per capita GDP of China today is still less than 1/6 of USA's. I feel like it's as if saying to a 12 year old that you are not growing anymore because you have already grown? With such a competitive market based job market and such hard working workers, and such a fast growing consumer market which is still very early in the level of consumption as compared to mature economies, how could China not continue to rise until at least 2-3 times US economic size, and to at least 1/3-1/2 per capital GPD of USA, before someone can entertain the idea of China being close to "not rising". In fact, there should be even a possibility that China can attain the same per capital GDP as USA, which will mean that in aggregate China may even be 400% the size of USA. Today, China is about 70% of USA. So where is the rationale for the speaker's prediction that China has peaked? Or is it just speaker's hope?
Just a thought, I agree with him that we invented ourselves and that we can reinvent ourselves and will reinvent ourselves whether it’s good or bad is for history to judge but I do enjoy his analysis🤔
Interesting 🤔 Video on geo-politics 📺🧐🤓🔥🤳
When someone pictures a parallel world and gives his full analysis of the future all upon the world he created, you know he is a good story teller.
Wishful thinking from Friedman. This guy has been wrong all along in the last 20 years. Poor America, if this is the best they have to offer, I pity them.
Ok
We/America control 80% of the Global supply chain, and Extract 80% of the Profits!! :)
Poor Arab world has one product/oil that is less and less valuable, due to the demographics of Europe /East Asia/renewables and Fracking! :) Enjoy the decline!
@@ClarksonsinUSA What do you mean 80% of the supply chain?
It's common knowledge that God created the world in six days and the rest, China did it. :)
@@walid7885 I don't you are smart enough to have this discussion! :) We live, you Exist!
@@ClarksonsinUSA Seriously, there is a decoupling happening as we speak and the one with manufacturing power will prevail in the long run. I think it will be China just because of the sheer number of people out there. They will outproduce the US. Most don't know this because of political rhetoric but the US manufacturing output per capita is about 4 times of China. But since the US is currently not moving up and China is. We can assume that production per capita will be equivalent at some point and in absolute numbers 4-5 times higher.
Good shit.
Shit is shit, it smells the same!!!!
Next 50 years homelessness, taxes wars and hunger. The rise of the super rich.I’m getting dizzy from all the spin
the next 50 years are going to be incredible, a lot of progress and tech advancement, can't wait
With cost of “black gold” at 15-23 dollars per barrel, the USSR economy collapsed, and the sovok itself collapsed, and the "golden" horde ("russia") budget can only be fulfilled only with oil price at $ 42.4 and higher
Then the outlook of the Russian economy is very poor indeed.
@@whydoncha You are totally wrong!
A decade ago he sounded a bit bolder and his visions a bit more vibrant. What has happened?
He missed by a hundred years.
You believe he doesn't have an agenda. LOL
I’m shocked by his out of date opinions
Hahahah his analysis and insight is only rivaled by the great Gordon Chang. My hats off to you, sir!
lol I love Gordon Chang.
Chinas current annual credit (non shadow banking) equals 550 billion USD monthly. That is the equivalent of 40% of its gdp. How is this system in anyway sustainable? This trend is present without covid (see 2008-19). Since the vast majority of Chinese credit is facilitated through state owned corps it is fair to compare it to the US federal deficit. Current Chinese lending is equivalent (in relative terms) of 5 Trump stimulus packages in a year. The amount of corruption associated with PPP loans in the states (which is only seen because the US is a free state with free press), has to be far more endemic in China which is far less developed and has far higher levels of corruption.
Can the CCP keep this up forever? Surely at some point the Chinese economy has to fizzle. Its not so much that economic growth will collapse, but that chinese savers and consumers will realize that their differed consumption has been squandered by the CCP on useless 'investment' that generates no returns. To keep the sharade going, China has to keep building roads and buildings which serve little purpose (building 5 bridges that cross the same river serves no economic utility), eventually the mal investment will reach such a level that the entire system faces a liquidity crisis.
Coupled with an aging population (with little to no money invested/saved for retirement), the economic impacts will be brutal. China will have to spend 200-300% of its gdp bailing out the entire system (or risk societal collapse). Which will almost certainly lead to it getting kicked from wto (bailout will confirm currency manipulation + unfair subsidies). China wont so much collapse (the CCP will never let it collapse), as fizzle out into irrelevance (like Japan). Its economy will still be significant (as japan's economy is today), but will be eclipsed in robustness by her enemies.
But China's military will only continue to expand. It will be the ruler of the heartland, and possibly (if the ccp has the foresight) eclipse the US military in mainland Asia (in both spending, personal and manpower). It will never be able to conquer the first island chain, but will certainly be able to quell rebellions, defend against India, and possibly expand into South east asia.
@@Multi407D if we calculate and compare actual project costs, for example 100kms of high speed rail costing $200 million in China vs 50 billion in the USA, Covid treatment costing $2000 in China vs $1.5 million in the US, the actual Chinese economy would in fact be 500 trillion US dollars today.
You know full well that 95% of the US economy is simply the movement of money in various financially calibrated bettin contracts, the other 5% is high tech development that heavily relies on foreign talent.
You tell me which one is heading for a collapse
@@datruzepp us consumption market is as big as the EU, China, Japan and India combined. All finished products are sold in the Us. If the US “collapses” China is fucked. But I guess we will see in 10 years.
If this is what they called expert on China then I think some signals in my brain might have taken the wrong path. Martin where are you?
HE IS A FOOL,,HE HAS BEEN BIAS,A HUNGARIAN ZIONIST JEW,BECOMES AMERICAN ..AND CANNOT GIVE IT UP..HE HAS BEEN BRONG,THE LAST 30 YEARS AN EXPERT MU FOOT...
@@dragonfly1929 if you go look at actual numbers (and there are a lot) when it comes to it if and that’s a big IF China does surpass the US it won’t likely be but a blip. They have massive demographic problems coming into play. Combine that with the fact that the rest of the world isn’t as eager to take them at their word anymore and it is very likely they won’t maintain their position long. In 2019 the US became younger than China as a nation and it’s only going to keep getting younger. China Japan and Russia are all going to be hit hard over the next 50yrs.
Love a bit of the Friedmaster
China's position has hugely changed since this speech
History reveals that everything that rises must fall. It is not only the law of gravity, but the rule of Providence.
This the same guy that predicted Japan would do space pearl harbor in 2050s
In his 90s book, he predicted war with Japan by 2020
I do not know how such an insightful man has come into being. Glad to hear his words while he is still alive and witnessing a living history.
How do you explain peace by bombing Iraq , Afghanistan , Syria , Libya and killing tens of thousands of children and women ?
Is that Peace ?
What if that bombings was done to Belgium , Austria , France , Netherlands and Other Christian nations ?
How does it feel and how does it effects you especially christian nations ?
i am so glad I am an American
Even Afghans are proud to be Afghanis,
Did anyone else hear him say that the war in 1980 was Vietnam? Pretty sure that started in 55 & ended in 75
He explained it beforehand, he said he would comparatively "pack" timeframes of 20 years and thus explain its dynamics pack by pack, i take that he means at the end of each of these packs... look 00:20 of the video.
No, Vietnam war start in the year 1938 against Japanese! Before it 1855 against France! War end in 1980! So over 100 years of war....
In the times of proxy wars, where WW2 battles are rare, Friedman under plays the importance of domestic conflicts, the use of foreign backings of rival factions, and civil wars. I wouldn’t be suprised if BLMTIFA has international fundings.... oh wait it does. He really needs to update his talking points. I wonder what happens if he merged his ideas with Mencius Modlbugs “Cathedral”
We are having five way proxy wars in Afghanistan, Syria, the Untied States, that’s why USA is still there.
USA is turning into a Banana Republic, aircraft carriers are useless in a land based insurrection, in tight urban areas.
Ukraine as well . Supporting Nazis - and in Germany they use so much media Manipulation like those debates about women quota in jobs so stupid everything . They think it will be more justice then such fools 😑😑
I wouldn't be surprised if elements of both the far right and left have "foreign backing".
I read his book in 2009 (the world in 2100). According to his book, China should have collapsed under its internal wealth inequality by 2020 and would never become a superpower and Russia should have collapsed around 2020 by the cost of maintaining its army and by maneuvering of a US satellite army near the Russian border 'without bloodshed'. While the US is able to overcome everything.
No doubt the US is still the strongest power by far, but it appears he underestimates other countries abilities to also overcome problems.. After all we are all human and work with the same universal laws.
And he was like 2 years off cause china and russia are having a lot of issues
@@WorldIsWierd having issues vs collapsing. Russia might well collapse due to the invasion of Ukraine but that’s not exactly ‘without bloodshed’ and even that will take some years provided there is no peace treaty first. How is China going to collapse imminently?
Here is my forecast. Leaders and rich men are woefully inept act looking deeply into human history in order that they might be able to Accurately peer far into the future to see what will happen if the course is not changed and plan for a more successful human future.
Because of this ineptitude, our leaders, rich men and academics will continue to lead us along the same path that we have continuously followed and failed since the advent of civil society.
Empires rise and Empires fall for a very simple reason. They fail to regulate their size, their oppression and their growth through conquest instead of cooperation. You can't form an empire through cooperation andfreedom. It recognizes the sovereignty and power of nations.
Empires rely on oppressing their subject states by increasingly using militaries of oppressed nations that don't willingly serve. While the empire is greedy to ever expand the oppressed gain numbers and power to fight against the thinning strength of the regime and cast it down into oblivion.
The world is being divided up between 2 axis powers, today. One built on the cooperation of its leaders, without the support of their subjected peoples with the intent of global domination, and the other through the cooperation of nations of people who hate the other power and, through conquests of unwilling nations, with the intent to resist the intended domination of their nations. This can only end in a war unlike any in human history. It will be bloody.
Even if those who seek to dominate ultimate succeed, they miss the lessons of our history. Empires, and even small nations, will always fracture from within, even when formed peacefully through cooperation. The reason is simple. There is always going to exist those who want to rise to power and those who don't want to be ruled. And among those who don't want to be ruled, you will find many who want to rise to power.
If the empires break up, we will still have wars because of these forces. If nations break up, factions will still fight. Even among neighbors and villages.
Whether large or small, they can mightily oppress enslave and murder all who resist, as soon as they arise. Thete will always more sprout up, until no person is left to rule. If they kill every person and there are only 2 left on the Earth, through cooperation one will eventually rise against the other and kill him because one will seek to rise and exercise authority over the other. The only way a global empire can exist is when there is no one left to rule.
I can't take this guy seriously
No need to. He is fake
Always interesting to see some strategic anaylsis on this topic. Nevertheless, Friedman always gets it wrong when it comes to economics. Within the next 20 years the financial capital of the world will shift from the US to China as it did shift from Britain to the US 70 years ago. China will have developed the biggest domestic market in the world with a population size surpassing the US and Europe combined by 50%. Chinas relative position strengthens much quicker than that of Germany in the 1800s as the Western economies of today mainly direct their ressources to consumption. The Chinese entered the Western economic system only 40 years ago and already managed to surpass many of its Western competitors in terms of productivity and innovation. For the moment the military potential of the US remains superior which might change over the next two decades, too. I also expect that Chinas local rivals Japan and South Korea won‘t be willing to participate in an ongoing blockade that mainly suits American interests and would likely lead to a full blown military conflict on their own doorstep.
China gdp slowed down from 14% to 6% in 12 years and will slow down more you dummy
The Chinese population outnumbers the US population by 3-4 times, they only integrated a third of those people into the modern style economy today, they work longer, they work harder, they have the smartest people in the world along with their neighbours in SK, Jp, Taiwan which enables them to rebuild and improve the most advanced goods and technologies and as a consequence will become the financial capital of the world within the next 20 years. So, if they are not going to tear the whole thing down by themselves they will rise to the top.
@@tuw2528 and where did you get those numbers from, dummy?
China is rapidly aging due to their old one child per family policy. Sure they've stopped that policy now but there just isn't enough young people to continue pushing their economy as hard as it's already going today. Demographics are hard to change.
The financial capital will not shift to China as long as there is a perception that there is no rule of law (impartial judiciary) and/or that massive government confiscation is a serious possibility.
I certainly hope that US and the american general mindset toward international relations won't decline. The international stability and peace depends on it. I don't want to live in a world where the political mindset of the current Russian or Chinese government is dominant.
So just drone on about a whole bunch of cliches. Do people actually pay good money for this?
The only new thing in the world is the history you don’t know.
His prediction was based on his observation on 240+ years of American history. We now can see how off target his prefiction was in 2022.
He was insanely right in 2022. He predicted the ukraine war easily
He uses 20 year cycles to narrate Western history. Perhaps he should use a 200 year cycle to narrate Chinese history.
Partially agree and disagree with his assessment.
And I'd say that's a healthy approach. Nothing wrong with that.
Take it as it comes, as he first pointed out were always wrong!
Boiled down to a couple sentences:
1) America's economy is a reflection on the entire world and, how the world interacts with it. I see a world of growing "Economic Blocs" looking for a way out of America's predatory economic system. That's not say they don't want to do business - that is to say, the world wants more equal footing in that business with the US.
2) The decision in the late 70s and early 80s of the Anglo American Establishment (England, Canada, United States, Australia and New Zealand) to move towards "Financial Capitalism" (de-industrialization by its inverse term) was a mistake that hollowed out ALL of the world's middle class. Since 2008/09, the world has been struggling to deal with a debt load that tax bases and citizens can no longer "borrow" there way out of (that's what happened in 2008, the credit markets completely collapsed). The collapse of a stable "centre" has seen movement back to nation states seeking sustainability rather than trading partners. This usually leads to a push for dominance (war).
3) China faces the exact same problems Germany did in 1914. Interestingly, they are turning to Russia for aid (with its vast resource wealth) in building a bloc to challenge the Anglo America Establishment. But, overall, the Chinese stand looking at the same existential issue Germany did - they have zero projection into the vast ocean logistics of the world. This means they cannot forever keep the initiative in a war against the world and will eventually have to play defence (where they will certainly lose).
As the 1930s - the 2020s are going to be a decade where the end result dictate the rest of the century.
@@thelumpenproletariat6393 China have the capability now to push the US military out of the first island chain during a war. That means the US is no longer able to roam the seas as free as they used to be. Once China have taken Taiwan the West Pacific Ocean will be theirs, they can do it now but just do not want to rock the boat at this stage as they play low to build more strengths. China is not Germany because they have a much much larger population with a fully industrialised economy. It will be impossible to pin them down on the ground by any means. If the Anglo American Establishment want to isolate China, they can form their own trading block along one belt one road and exclude the Anglos'. Many people said US is holding China on 2 balls-The USD system and Chip manufacturing. But Chinese are preparing spare tire for that too. The Anglos has no options other than the win-win option with cooperation with China.
@@stevec9470 China doesn’t have a single super carrier to match the US. The US has 10 aircraft carriers all with more air power than the entire Chinese air force itself. You must be dumb to think China could actually push us out of the first island chain.
Firedman and Peter Zeihan should do a video together talking about the future.
Idiots pay to listen to his verbal farts a typical usa and zionists propaganda lies
To his own children who die for his propaganda lies Vietnam Afghanistan children born with terrible deformities how many Jewish children born suffer this evil Perpetrated by Europeans and usa and Australians Due to the holocaust NONE hang your head in shame you hav no moral standards to
Dictate to any one
He talked about China thirties ago, not "the next 50 years".
When he mentioned UK in 1900 with glory and no one could anticipate its coming decline, he might want to imply that China is in the some situation today. But why cloud not be the USA's situation in 2000. I don't think that America is really declining. The problem for the US is that not only China is rising, other countries are rising, Asean countries, African countries etc, but the USA refuses to admit it or to adapt itself to it. The rises of other countries means America can not longer be the exception, at least not longer be the only exception.
We just don’t care anymore....
Love,
America
check out peter zeihan. he basically says america bribed up the world to fight the ussr. thats how the globalized world was created. however the ussr has collapsed and america has not updated what it wants next from the world, since the collapse of the ussr was the goal of this global interconnection it created. This is a problem because as we maintained the global order, our own infrastructure was neglected (detroit was a car maker city, until we started to import cars from other countries).
So us stepping away is not a sign of weakness but a sign of disinterest and stepping back from the position of world police and focus internally (one of bidens slogan "build back, build better"). as a result other nations are "rising", but then again they are not. Demographics of the world shows all the countries in the world experienced a baby bust, except for a few including america. meaning there will be no internal consumption or much less of it.
check peter zeihan out
Your right sir
New things that are old things that happen to new people
Common knowledge is historically wrong! Well illustrated!
Did he stated anything new?
I wonder what he would say now. His claims are mostly invalid. US is no longer the largest customers of China export, EU and ASEAN are. In addition, US tried to detach from China, but it's proven it can not. I don't think this guy really understands China and his view of geopolitics is pretty biased.
Just apply what George Friedman said (History approves all predictions are wrong) to what he is saying now.
He still predicted war with Japan in the early 00s.
Previous two books proved completely wrong. This spin is going no where
could you elaborate on that? a lot has come true: edelweiss-assets.abovethetreeline.com/RH/supplemental/Flashpoints%20Friedmans%20accurate%20predictions.pdf
what part hasn't?
@@PneumaLights flash point was written when fissures is European Union had already become glaringly visible and it was amply clear this Union was not going to become a major power or remain effective. So the book was just an exposition on roots of historic and contemporary fault lines nothing much of a forecast. The books I referred to are the next 100 years and the next decade. In them China was dismissed as a paper tiger and Russia no more than a dying irritant. Major threat to US were Japan, Germany and Turkey!!! George is deeply biased by his family history in Europe whose aversion he just can't subdue and he wants US to succeed and dominate over Europe because his father choose it to escape prosecution and assure the safest abode for his family. That is why scholars must always analyse authors with the their work.
Remarkble is the way the Chinese behave...peace...no sign of distress...bravo!
In 50 years, earth has united to fight against the great dictator of Mars "Elon Mask". Because the Marsian had defeated death and don't want shear its technology with earth.
I second that prediction lol especially after I watched the entire TV show "The Expanse" in a week.
All hail the Martian Utopia Elonsalem #elonsalem
so we will fight against deathless gods from Mars. oh how hopeless we are.
Jajajaja. It´s possible the PPC will be in the moon, sharing with Elon Musk.....
Friedman is the the clear speaking Edward Casey of geopolitics! He speaks like Eric Severide - when he stops, you feel you've heard the truth.
nah, its also only the narrative that he would like to give you for free. But focusing on weakness is an interesting method.
Clear speaking yes but clear thinking no. He is a charlton
@@Terracotta-warriors_Sea Charlton?
Only to the uniformed is Friedman not ckear thinking! His career track record out paces his critics by light yrs!
@@billkramer2994 Friedman is wrong on just about everything.
It was one thing before the administration decided to implementent a infection zero at the 13th March, Friday, what go more bad in the system, the G8.
One thing I would add is that while a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a Bad Idea, bad ideas have a tendency to come to fruition when a leader is in a weakened - and weakening - position. This is doubly true if the other side, in this case the U.S., also appears weak at the same time. Wars are frequently the result of one side miscalculating the strength or resolve of the other. I believe this is exactly what is about to unfold in the Taiwan straight sometime in the next couple of years, presuming a Trump victory in the election.
Xi Jinping has over the past few years implemented wide-ranging and brutal reforms in the People's Liberation Army, purging generals and sending them to prison for "corruption". Some generals have even been shot. Discipline has been toughened across the board, and President Xi has said on numerous occasions that the army should prepare for war. Putting your military under that kind of pressure, and then not following through by actually using it, is a dangerous thing for an authoritarian leader to do. Authoritarian leaders rule through fear. Appearing weak is the last thing a dictator wants. There is also the issue of a weakening economy and unwelcome demographic shifts down the road. The longer Xi waits to make a move, the less likely he will be able to seek a military solution at all. Xi Jinping is in a "use it or lose it" situation.
Couple this with the certainty of domestic political unrest in the United States following a Trump victory (unrest that might very well have been instigated by China itself), and you have an opportunity that is difficult to resist. Xi's calculation would be that a quick assault on Taiwan might shock and confuse the American public enough to delay responding decisively to the attack and instead seek a diplomatic solution. This calculation will be proven false by #1: An amphibious invasion of Taiwan would not see a quick victory, and #2: The American public would be shocked into action rather than complacency. Add any regional allies the United States would bring into the fight, and China would most assuredly be crushed and forced to retreat back to the mainland. Xi Jinping would nevertheless make this attempt because, from his point of view, he really has no choice. A victory would allow him to consolidate his power and refocus on pressing domestic concerns. Inaction would erode his power and cause the Chinese population to lose confidence in the CCP, making needed domestic reforms more difficult.
A Biden victory in the election would kick the can down the road a bit. Biden would be more amenable to Chinese interests, so China would be inclined to wait and use diplomacy to erode Taiwan's relationship with the U.S., hoping that Taiwan will surrender or negotiate rather than risk a war without America's involvement. This would be China's preferred option, though personally, I think China is fooling themselves if they think Biden can overcome Trump in light of recent events. Taiwan isn't going to be given to them on a platter.
Good points. Taiwan would be a Pyrrhic victory - as would any other incursion against other countries - no-one likes bully-boy countries or trusts them.
China doesn't depend on US presidents like you obviously beg for. You're the ones more desperate for time and people, but you're still too scared to do anything as you cry about China never turning out like your essays.
@@tritium1998 What is your point, exactly? Do you think China is in a strong enough position that they can engage in any foreign policy they want without considering who the U.S. President is? China's goal might not change, but the way they would pursue it most definitely would.
@@tritium1998 You sound like nothing so much as a propagandist for the CCP.
@Bud Smith All things being what they are now, the US navy could obliterate the Chinese navy in a VERY short period of time. One US navy carrier group has the same firepower as all of the other blue water navies in the world combined. Now consider that there are 11 of these carrier groups, and more on the way, the Chinese navy is insignificant if push comes to shove.
Mr. Friedman,
I am surprised that you see no role for INDIA in the new emerging world.
100% India has big role.
Yeah indian love if someone say something sweet to them but look at reality
한국의 정치적 내부상태는 국민이 알지 못하는 현실을 가지고 있습니다.
이 것은 국가 혹은 국민에게 어떤 결과를... 진행을 보여 줄 까..??
두렵고, 궁굼한...
When George Friedman has become a diplomat dedicated himself to paise the resiliance of U.S?
Because he is a realist.
USA no money uses a Ponzi scheme like Australians kiss the royals and USA zionists North Atlantic terrorist organisation NATO Friedman happy th see his young men and woman of usa sent to war to be slaughtered on his so called DEMOCRATIC ideology propaganda lies he should hang his head in shame his verbal farts do not impress me might impress the North Atlantic terrorist organisation NATO his country has a law nobody can charge them with war crimes as his buddy isreal SO FAR Usa no money use a Ponzi scheme MADOFF 50 yrs for him Never mentions when 5 USA banks
Collapsed his countrymen slaughtering their own children do nothing 200 million guns on the streets trump still 90 million
Followers
No country is eternal.
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חחח היי
אני
China's 2020 GDP of $17.73 trillion is hardly a "fraction" of the $23 trillion GDP by the US. I appreciate many of Friedman's analyses, though he greatly underestimates the power of China, be it economically or militarily.
The road to greatness is rough, winding and long while the road to ruin is paved, straight and downhill. To paraphrase, I think, Seneca.
I guess America’s 2nd act is about to start because we hitting some huge pot holes
right now.
12:47 "Given the fact that it was starting as a Mao-ist country, it was hard not to do better than *that*" 😂😂
Another "China expert" from Gordon Chang School of Geopolitics, tragic!
A.G.I Will be man's last invention.
In a situation where China could emerge to be much powerful in 2040s, I imagine that something more significant would happen somewhere in the world that would make Chinese activities in South China Sea literally out of radar from the world's eyes. This event must be incredibly significant such as an unlikely Putin doing the unthinkable in European theater in a desperate attempt to save himself (worst that could happen is the pressing of nukes... however, I do not see it fully escalating into a nuclear war. It will act as a significant enough of an event that would force the United States to fully focus in Europe.) After that, China could easily swoop in and take control of the seas in South China sea and take hold of this "trade route choke point" and give them more reason to assert militarily (and thus allow their navy to develop further.)
What I think China actually lacks despite its great economic power is the water territory that will power up its navy. To simply let your ships drive in your shores feels embarassing as a great nation, therefore to assert more control over a larger water territory like the South China Sea, it would lead to breakthroughs in their naval capabilities. And a great military constitutes to a great power to the people over all (it raises morale and increases the country's influence over the world power table).
If we predict that the US remains the most influential by many grades in the future, we can easily see China becoming powerful enough to threaten the US in its position. By then, we really might see a mid 21st century Cold War situation... and it might even be as big as the Cold War during the Soviet Union days.
So he has given assumptions/predictions which could be questioned and then stated how those assumptions/predictions turned out to wrong. That is then his logic for why the current assumption/prediction about China taking the lead on USA may turn out to be wrong. Flawed logic. Those assumptions/predictions stated from the past that proved to be wrong - because we didn't have access to the amount of information that is readily available today.
How much did you know and when?
I know a few people that suggested Einstein was wrong. History is not worth knowing apparently.
This George Guy is living in the year before the year of 2000. HaHaHa!!!. Keep dreaming!!!
I HAD A GREAT DREAM LAST NIGHT. Some Turkish men KIDNAPPED GEORGE FRIEDMAN dressed him up like JODIE FOSTER IN THE ACCUSED and bent him over a PINBALL MACHINE. Elton John was singing PINBALL WIZARD.
Tell this man who extols a lot of history about the Korean War. A China ravaged by a civil war and the long battles of WW II beat back the hallowed General MacArthur. That was 70 years ago. The combined Allied Forces were on tap. He got whacked so much he wanted to use nukes. Try peace my friend. War won't get you anywhere
China is facing four issues that limits it potential to becoming the dominant superpower of the world. 1st: they have endemic poverty with no end in sight, and thus cannot be a purchasing power like the US (communism). 2nd: its population is going bust, they just don't have the number of 20 and 30 year olds to support its aging population (thanks to the one child policy). 3rd: China does not have a deep blue water navy, and its geography (1st island chain) is a strategic problem it cannot change. China cannot project naval power like the US (or even Japan). 4th: China imports about 60% of its energy (oil and LNG), and 40% of its food (65% if you count items like fertilizer). Thus, China is vulnerable to supply chain distribution and global trade. The US has no energy or food production issues, as everything is contained within its borders. China's best years, its golden years, have already passed, and its only downhill from here on.
Thanks Peter z! Interesting how history turns out. Never what one expects.
Hopefully for all of us, your prediction turns out to be true.
1. That doesn't make sense. 2. Yeah that is kinda a problem, though also not really because of cultural differences 3. It can build a blue water navy though. And it already does that slowly. Maybe China won't be as powerful as the us is right now, but the us won't be as powerful as it is right now too. Also China can have more power projection than japan simply because of their economy 4. First of all that is a reason why they will develop a blue water navy. secondly China can very well grow their own food to supply all of their population. It's just cheaper to buy it elsewhere
One odd but crucial add to CCP’s geographic disadvantages: Bathymetry. The CN coast is 200km to any deep water and very shallow except for Hainan Island, which is where CCP’s main sub barn is located. But it doesn’t really get better. From the SW corner of the SCS basin to the next deep basin of the Andaman Sea is over 2000km. So for 2000km you have this 40-100km depth that simply makes sub-warfare a massive risk. And that’s without active surface/sub countermeasures since mining that would be very possible and effective. One new USN mine, the Hammerhead, can be laid and wait passively, listening, and release independent against sub and surface vessels. This mine would be almost impossible to find! That’s just one of 30+ in development and obviously not by accident. This simple fact, if applied, ends PLAN and non-mil traffic within days. Days.
www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a34451548/navys-new-hammerhead-mine/
Also, CN has 0.08 hectares of arable (farmland) per citizen. By comparison, the US has 0.46-0.50 per. A wet bat fart in CN results in starvation as history has shown since CN existed to a point.
You’re very correct on all levels. And the demographic implosion is just another nail. 350 million over 65 in the coming years will be a “World problem” per (I can’t recall exactly) the CEO of BlackRock or BlackStone. Think Trillions under management.
Down with CCP!
Well, I can tell you for sure that one of those assumptions is wrong. Last time I went to China, I was amazed by how many kids there were. I asked a friend what was going on, is China in a baby boom? She said no, but explained that parents were purposely having 3 kids. They can get around the restriction by having twins on the second kid. There are clinics that specialize in making that happen. They believe they have a shortage of kids... That's their narrative too. But my eyes told me otherwise.
Selamat Slide clips to delete them
if you want to know what will happend next? Ask George
He didn't point out where the conventional knowledge had gone wrong in regards to the colonial era UK, and WW1 Germany. He also himself committed the same mistake of not looking into history to inform the present and future. China was the #1 economy in the world before the 18th century for centuries. To the West, they educate themselves to believe China was always Mao's China forever. The rebirth of China was never mentioned. China is determined to direct her fate and rise peacefully, which unfortunately for the world is not too big a deal for them in light of the rise of the West rooted in colonilism all around the way in the past 500 years.
China has never been an influence globally in history, China is and will always be a insular regional power...
@@johnphilips7460 ottomans alone fucked europe for 500yrd
Big fan of The Next 50 Years at 16.10.2020
Newton said 1260 years given to germanic tribes aka west will end in two decades with that this age will end.
Seriously. China has fraction of USA GDP. Taking marijuana sir
Who knows what kind of turns lie in the future? There are speculations,
The ptobable and the possible and somewhere in between the following
scenarios.!
Where are you getting that in World War 1 close to a hundred million people died? Wasn't it more like 10 million?
experts always favor the status quo. CIA senior analysts were always certain the USSR wouldn't collapse....the junior analysts knew better
说了半天，等于没说
I'm sure most of the audience is not happy with his conclusions.
Why?
are you assuming they are chinese? lol
"Hold on B I got this. Put ya boy in office I'll punch China square in jaw." - American Goku
I'm sure he predicted that both China and Russia would do nothing
I can see his hands shaking.
Getting old. Sad if it’s some neurological problem. He gives good insights - hopefully he can last another decade or two.
China has fishing trawlers permanently floating all over world like little islands ???? G5 countries have millitary bases dotted all over Africa ....???? And all over the seven seas ???? Foreign countries of northan hemisphere own most of mineral mines and oil in Africa ???? What gives ???
A man without a vision!
When we 'Brits' first 'unleashed' The Royal Navy's DEADLY £10billion HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier (in 2014), I remember Putin saying it was a "sitting duck" (very funny! :-). Here Friedman classically rebukes: "... aircraft carriers wont disintegrate because we have silly things being said by politicians ...". Hilarious!!!!!!
The cognition to solidify the knowledge of infections with the world agenda is attention grabbing.