Has China Won or Lost from the Ukraine War?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ก.ค. 2022
- By Kishore Mahbubani, speaking as Chairman of Aggregate Asset Management, at Managing Global Uncertainties; Seizing Global Opportunities, a webinar jointly held with The Edge Singapore on 9 July 2022.
Text synopsis of the video can be found here:
aggregate.com.sg/2022/07/has-...
Aggregate Asset Management is a fund management company that holds a Capital Markets Services (CMS) License for fund management activities under the Securities and Futures Act, Singapore. Aggregate Asset Management does not charge management fees; clients only pay performance fees when they enjoy absolute returns. Read more here:
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We Chinese focused on ourselves, we did not blame others for our own problems, not like western countries
Because USA is a democracy. The politicians relies on their public reception - to admit mistake is career suicide to them.
Lol, have you seen the Chinese state media news? Everything that is wrong with China is because of America, and none of the CCP's fault! How can the CCP make mistakes? Its always the American's fault for Chinese problems!
you are smart bro
@@asjalanasubroto1435 smarter than you
What are you talking about ? China blames all its problems on USA, Australia, UK . Without USA there wouldn't be any modern China. China had nothing 40 years ago. Who do you think transferred modern manufacturing technologies to China in 1970s ?
Question is incorrectly poised. It should be “ has the USA and the UK who triggered this war won or lost from the Ukraine war”. Answer is no and they have failed miserably.
But a tiny minority - 1%, 0.1%, 0.01% - probably has.
China biggest win is that they can now see what the West can use to counter them on geopolitical war esp the sanctions and blocking if China from the international payment system. China will definitely work with BRICs and the outer circle of link minded victims of sanctions to create a new world order less dependence on Western nation. Similarly, the West also wants to be less dependent on China and its concerns on supply chain concentration risks. The creation of a more efficient cost effective world works well for China ..let us review in a decade. I am confident
China will learn from Russia sanction, she will bite the bullet and persevere. One good thing about US, she is impatient, she will send in troops, and when causality increase, she give up.
@@michaele4830 Yankees don't even care to send ground troops into Iran, let alone China. The army will be slaughtered massively. I know the resolve of the Han Chinese doctrine on Taiwan
I agree.
*And the biggest learning is - the West violates all it's own rules. West does not adhere to its Rules based Order and does not hesitate even a moment to violate sacrosanct principles to target its challenger. No rules. No holds barred. Every cunning trick can be used. Every nasty surprise will be tried.*
china don’t learn dictatorship always end with disasters. china would never learn this time too.
Far from being unified, the west is crumbling badly, take Europe for example. (1) Germany holds EU together, Germany economy has already started going pear shaped, cracks in other European countries will show up very quickly, the consequences will be ugly. (2) Gas shortages and food supplies are hurting the Europeans with high inflation. Come autumn winter, when people feel cold, hungry and poor, social unrest will follow. (3) EU political leaders are not holding on to their positions. Now it's Boris and Draghi, Olaf and Macron's popularity are diving, they will be out and Putin will still be around. Europe is in a mess and they don't have a plan. Clearly the leaders have no regard for the lives of Ukrainians, because if they do, they would have negotiated ceasefire instead of sending weapons continually to Ukraine, even when Russia has already gained 20% of Ukraine territory. Also if they really cared, they would have sent their own soldiers. The more sanctions imposed on Russia, the more Europe suffers. Look at Russia, it's accumulating huge current account surplus, ruble is mighty strong, they are lowering their interest rates and giving more pensions to Russians. When has sanctions ever served its purpose?
Great comments! If this is what failure looks like for Russia I think everyone would want some.
It is all about money the longer the west drags what is a proxy war the more the arms industry makes. NATO is the retail outlet for the arms industry and Stoltenburg is the salesman
Well American love war.
1990
NATO had 16 members.
1991
Collapse of the USSR
Russia - don't expand further
America - okay we will not expand (verbally, not written)
1999
Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off!
2004
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off. 。
2009
Albania and Croatia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off
2014
CIA funded Coup-de-tat to overthrow the legal government of Ukraine and install a Pro-Western US puppet government
2017
Montenegro and North Macedonia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - Where is the written document, so Jack off
2021
US proposal for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and
Ukraine to join NATO
Russia - enough is enough, you are betraying us ever since 1990s, if we allow you, you will deploy missiles on our borders.
Western World - Russia is so aggressive, they are evil, they don't think about humanity. Russia is expanding. Putin is being unreasonable. .
Hypocrite Western world!
Imagine if Canada and Mexico joined a military alliance with Russia and deployed missiles on its borders? The US will declare war for own security. Where was the West and the so called free world’s moralit for what the US did to secular regimes in Iraq, Afganistan ,Libya?
They turned a blind eye and destroyed these Middle Eastern countries all while funding terrorism and supporting Wahabbi Extremist theocracies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which sponsor terrorists around the world.
This is not the 1980’s. People have eyes and ears, the world has had enough of Western imperialism and Unipolar control over the rest of the world.
It’s about time the Western Hemisphere wakes up from its colonial wet dream of controlling the world and dictating who can and cannot be free.
Russia & China along with rest of the world should come together to form a balance of power to create a Multipolar World
Jai Hinduja. Read the Revelation from Jesus. Europe top heavy politicians are likely to fall and collapse soon because their feet are made from miry clay and iron.
'China was shocked that foreign reserves could be seized by the west.'
A more cordial way of saying 'China is shocked by the west's blatant, unprecedented manipulation of international law'.
you are also sugarcoating a bank robbery 😮. Assets belonging to a ordinary citizen can be confiscated without any legal proceedings. That action alone caused the panics and asset reallocation of the world and downfalls of the West
@@jameszhou162 Very true. They try to justify everything with 'human rights'. Hypocrites.
In the same way, China has disregarded the ICJ ruling in South China Sea.
Great powers never play by rules.
@@balajeepratham8200 The ICJ as part of the UN did not rule on the South China Sea dispute between the numerous nations claiming the region. Please check your sources and refrain from posting falsities.
@@balajeepratham8200 ICJ is not an arm of United Nation, arbitration court has no jurisdiction to redraw nations boundaries, arbitration without all parties participate yield no verdict. The hague court was the dirty trick paid and bought by obama and aquino administrations.
Russia is not weakened. On the contrary nobody believed the Russia could challenge US even indirectly. US and EU and NATO is loosing. Economically politically, and geo-politically West has lost. Shift is beginning. Collapse of Russia is not coming economically and politically as expected by the collective West. They are in emergency mode. A regime change in Russia the west wanted is back-firing. Regime change is happening in western countries instead.
Totally agree. If anything this has made Putin and Russia stronger in the eyes of the world. Why would China get involved in the Ukraine v. Russia fiasco? I dont like Communism, but at the same time, the intelligence level of these leaders appears superior to the West. They arent afraid to politely say no to the West.
We need to understand what Russia want is NATO out of Eastern Europe a buffer zone between East and West,
And what we also need to understand is that Eastern Europe doesn't want return to being a buffer zone (like they were from 1950-1990).
We need to know that the US government have not kept their part of the deal with the demise of uSSR instead BJ Bill played a dangerous game by encouraging countries like Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania followed by Slovakia and Slovenia into NATO. Besides Blinken have clearly said that US wants to destroy Russia.
@@ihs51 What deal?
On the surface, China would seem to have lost. With further analysis, China and the non western world would have won since a much weaker EU (NATO) will accelerate the formation of a multi polar world. US without the support of a strong EU will be very much weaken.
Europe is devastating its economy and destroying the savings of a large % of their middle and lower class population in order to support a half-brained US foreign policy.
China wants a strong and independent Europe.
Why is US regime controlled YT shoadowbanning all comments here. Is this called western freedom?
@@pisablavatski4876 known as rule based international freedom (violation)
Which part has China lost?
Dear Kishor,China focused on doing the right things and not to win anyone. Too bad the Americans feel losing out.Beatles say,Let it be.
As a Chinese my position is to keep status quo, and everyone focus on economy. We are having hard time making livings for all people and we should not be distracted. Good economy green environment is our position.
Why make money if you and family are not safe? Security should be seriously factored in any meaningful geopolitical discussion.
@@donaldjoseph3903 thats your security not mine
@@donaldjoseph3903 You’re not wrong, but the security issue is not that simple. China cannot simply ignore everything and focus on developing, but also cannot afford to be dragged into whatever war or conflict created by the US, at least not now. The security issue is not a simple black or white problem.
That’s only your own short sightedness. Minding your own business is like an ostrich. The west is poking China playing Taiwan card, if you lack awareness of US Aggression, then you don’t qualify to call yourself Chinese unless you are overseas Chinese and those issues don’t concern you and happy to be third class citizen.
Real Chinese people are not CCP wumao trolls working in CCP PLA troll farms with fake profiles.
Real Chinese people want immediate end to CCP dictatorship and a transition government to democracy helped by the United Nations and the international community.
Real Chinese people, not wumao trolls working inside CCP troll farm in China with fake profile and fake name, also want that the CCP traitors be judged by their crimes against humanity and genocide plus the total destruction of Chinese economy and society.
As always, Prof Kishore never fails to provoke critical thinking and drops gems of insights glaringly missing from the usual western narratives and perspectives.
However, I beg to differ from his assessment of Russia’s original intent and “failure” to capture Kiev as a key objective. That has never been the intent from the way the war had been conducted to-date. If that had been the objective, Russia would have done what the US did to Iraq in their illegal invasion and destruction of Iraq. Russia is more than capable of executing and inflicting a “shock and awe” strategy to take Kiev if that had been their intent. The other contention that the war had “United” the west is also an illusion in my opinion. It has actually revealed the cracks , the incompetence and even the stupidities of western “leadership” to the rest of the world. The longer the war drags on, the more obvious it will become.
Finally, all that this war had done and confirmed to the world is that the ugly, crude, vulgar and bullying days of western imperialism are over. And long overdue, if I may add.
Time for the collective west to step down from their high horses and learn to respect and treat other countries with dignity and some semblance of fairness and equality.
@ tc 💯 agree. You are spot on!
Not true unfortunately. Kishore is realistic in this analysis. Although I'm also very critical of Western behavior, it doesn't mean we should disregard the truth. It was obvious the initial objective of a fast government fall in Kiev did not succeed. A lot of military material lost and Russian soldiers died for this first intent. Also it did unite Europe the initial period, we have to see how this stands for longer periods though.
Evil western don't know what is respect. They're pirates in their geno
@@Woestheboss Winter is coming. The Europeans will soon cracked and divide as they need gas to survive the winter.
@@Woestheboss soldiers die in war, that is no measure of success or failure
Kiev thrust irrefutably tied down Ukrainian troops that subsequently failed to be in position to stop the northern Luhansk breakthrough that led to the destruction of the eastern field army
the same waterfall rush took Kherson in the south with minimal opposition, so strategically Russia is firmly keeping the initiative
Kishore has been taken in by the Western media on this point, which is largely irrelevant now except for when the Russians return to exact justice in Bucha for those white-armband Russian supporting civilians
China at least learned from this Ukraine war about all the western cards and tactics, and strategic goals.
Well, china and everyone already know that usa imposes sanctions on countries to force them to do things.
What must be surprising is that EU is ready to go into recession for American war.
EU is so selfless in serving USA
Not Taiwanese leader though knowingly not every Taiwanese agree with her decision.
sanctions and embargo , human right Bala Bala as always
@frankng. Agree. China won in the Ukraine war. First, the US empire was marching to war with China, but the Ukraine war was a spanner in the works for the empire's war against China.
Second, China had been too hopeful about a sovereign Europe, but the Ukraine war has shown that Europe is just a US vassal. So China need not waste time, energy and money with Europe.
The guest Kishore seems to have taken his "facts" on the Ukraine war from the mainstream media and mainstream academic publications. That's wny he thinks Russia initially wanted to take Kyiv, and was beaten back, and had to withdraw.
However, Russia had parked only 40,000 troops outside Kyiv. The force was too small to take Kyiv. As the vlogger Jackson Hinkle asked, if there was a battle for Kyiv, where were the pictures?
Analysts in the alternative media have largely agreed that the Russian gambit was to get Ukraine to the negotiating table, and make it agree not to join NATO, etc. This Russia actually succeeded. At the negotiations in Turkey (I forgot the current official spelling) in March-April 2022, Ukraine's chief negotiator actially signed a draft agreement. Of course, the world now know that the US emissary and lapdog, Boris Johnson, dashed to Kyiv and killed any propects of an agreement.
I also disagree with Kishore that the Ukraine war made Europe and the US more united than before. Europe has been a US vassal all along, and the Ukraine war merely makes his crytal clear. In fact, with Europe deindustrializing, the cracks are showing.
I disagree that the Ukraine war has weakened Russia. The Russian economy is stronger than ever, and is now No.1 in Europe, having overtaken Germany in PPP terms.
I diaagree with Kishore that China lost big from the Ukraine war. Without the Ukraine war, China could have been in a war with the US empire and its vassals by now. Of course, one might say the Ukraine war made Europe poorer, and that's bad for China. But that's bad for everyone, and not specifically China.
I would say the breakout of the Russia - Ukraine war is kind of a "luck" for China (though I hate to use this word). Before the war, many scholars in China have been discussing what sanction measures the US will take on China if in case the 2 countries come to a war? The Russia -Ukraine war demonstrated to China and to the rest of the worrld what the US will do, and how Russia is overcoming these sanctions. I'm sure China and many other countries will start to derive strategies on how to protect the wealth of their country.
@@gflaubert3423
What happened to Iran and N Korea? Have you ever visited and recorded every event in Tehran and Pyongyang? Can i watch it?
@@gflaubert3423
Did you pay attention to what Prof. Kishore said in this video about anglo-saxon media on reporting news?? I don't think you are..
The petrol dollar has lost quite a lot of credibility ever since the US stole Russia's 300 billion and Afghanistan's 9 billion national reserves. Now with the Brics improvising a basket of currencies to use for international trade and avoid the need for the petrol dollar, the demise of the US dollar as the sole reserve currency is fast speeding up.
@@gflaubert3423 Wong answer. Ruble is actually the best performing currency in the world this year.
@@gflaubert3423 Again, wrong answer. Repeating lies told by Corporate Media a thousands time wouldn't change the facts. Russia is profiting hugely from rising fossil fuel and grain prices. While Europe and the US is facing the worst inflation in decades. The EU and the US are following the foot steps of the USSR.
When Mr Makbubani speaks, we all should be listening.
Because he is your father?
He is wise.
@@babyspidey9627 well educated people tend to listen to words of wisdom, yet-to-grown people may just listen to the words of propaganda, hope you don't belong to the latter group.
@@babyspidey9627
We call it stupidity....
@@babyspidey9627 he is your grand father
I also think the isolation of the West is the biggest shift of this war.
The west is being diminished by their failire in the Ukraine war, just as the British empire was diminished by World War II and the Suez Canal crisis.
One of the key things that cannot be under estimated as the result of the invasion of Ukraine, is the effect that the war has on the rest of the world, especially the developing world, which includes China. As America becomes more hawkish over Taiwan, as the occupiers of Palestine becomes more hawkish towards Iran, as the Latin Americans, the Africans watch the war in Ukraine, they are watching Russia struggle against the entire west. A west that includes NATO, America, Australia, and their neocolonies.
Russian attack signified one important thing, and that is the colossal hegemony is not omnipotent. its global presence is not iron clad. Its capacity is not overwhelming. The hegemony can be fought, at terrible cost, but can be fought, and more over, it can be defeated. No longer are resistances to western hegemony and their imperialist expansion of their empire into the middle east or into eastern europe a thing to be debated, to be academically studied, to be condemned or to be criticised in political circles. Instead of saying 'we do not like NATO on our borders', Russia is saying 'we will stop NATO if you try to expand' and 'we will win'.
It is not a concidence that Iran is expanding its influence in the middle-east, looking to make allies and to bolster resistance groups in Palestine and Yemen. It is not a concidence that North Korea feels comfortable enough to recognise the DPR and LPR regions of Ukraine immediately. It is not a concidence that Maduro sits comfortably in Venezuela first time in many years and starts planning the reconstruction of their ruined economy. When the resources, focus, and effort of the empire lingers about Ukraine, the rest of the world breath some relief. The economic sanctions which has back fired means the empire cannot place more sanctions or amplify sanctions on others. While the war in ukraine is draining the coffers of the US, it means the US will not be able to afford other military escapades elsewhere. For once we see China threaten to take military action against Nacy Pelosi's proposed violation of its soveriegnty, and I have no doubt it is due to the war in Ukraine that China feels comfortable that America will be defeated in both threatres of war should they press this point.
While the axis of resistance gets a breath of relief, and while the war in Ukraine grinds forever in Russia's favour, we are also looking at the strategic fracture of the west. This war is placing Europe between their masters in the whitehouse, and economic ruin. It is not a concidence that Drahgi and Boris Johnson are leaving, it is also not a concidence that there are riots and protests across much of Europe. Macron seats uncomfortably in a coalition with Melechon, the far left candidate, as he had lost his absolute majority, while the far right candidate is not far behind. Germany is about to lose much of its industry, and with it, its social stability. The war in Ukraine will exhaust Europe, whatever remains, if loyal to their masters in Washington still, will be much less effective than now. Whatever pain Russia suffers, Europe will feel it to a much heavier extent.
This is the truest 'win' for China. A world where the hegemony is dealt a major blow, perhaps mortal blow. A hegemony that cannot afford to fight a war in the pacific in the foreseeable future. A hegemony that wants to 'pivot to Asia' but has been rooted in Ukraine. A hegemony that will cause so much damage to its allies in Europe, they will either defect, or cease to be effective. Ultimately, a hegemony that has been pushed to a position that have no winning hand.
He who defends everything, defends nothing. And the empire will die trying to hold on to everything, while keeping nothing.
Excellent
A hidden pearl, you are.. 👍
Absolutely correct.
2222
You so eloquently put and spot on
Countries will simply pursue their national interests. So long as they do so non-violently, they are simply acting pragmatically and realistically. The arbitrary division of the world into camps suits the west's philosophy of divide and rule, and no country should fall victim to this in our new international world order!
What a Evil western philosophy
Not true, the Europeans are pursuing the interest of u.s.
1990
NATO had 16 members.
1991
Collapse of the USSR
Russia - don't expand further
America - okay we will not expand (verbally, not written)
1999
Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off!
2004
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off. 。
2009
Albania and Croatia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off
2014
CIA funded Coup-de-tat to overthrow the legal government of Ukraine and install a Pro-Western US puppet government
2017
Montenegro and North Macedonia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - Where is the written document, so Jack off
2021
US proposal for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and
Ukraine to join NATO
Russia - enough is enough, you are betraying us ever since 1990s, if we allow you, you will deploy missiles on our borders.
Western World - Russia is so aggressive, they are evil, they don't think about humanity. Russia is expanding. Putin is being unreasonable. .
Hypocrite Western world!
Imagine if Canada and Mexico joined a military alliance with Russia and deployed missiles on its borders? The US will declare war for own security. Where was the West and the so called free world’s moralit for what the US did to secular regimes in Iraq, Afganistan ,Libya?
They turned a blind eye and destroyed these Middle Eastern countries all while funding terrorism and supporting Wahabbi Extremist theocracies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which sponsor terrorists around the world.
This is not the 1980’s. People have eyes and ears, the world has had enough of Western imperialism and Unipolar control over the rest of the world.
It’s about time the Western Hemisphere wakes up from its colonial wet dream of controlling the world and dictating who can and cannot be free.
Russia & China along with rest of the world should come together to form a balance of power to create a Multipolar World
@@klchai7884 He who knows the facts is invariably likely to make good judgments. It seems to me that you know the facts!
Jai Hinduja. We Indians are the smartest geopolitical players and traders. We are on-side with the Raj of 5Eyes and, reap substantial profits exporting cheap gas to the Old Europeans like the Germans.
Thank you for highlighting the complexities of geopolitics. The West tries to make it a “good” vs “evil” black-and-white matter when they themselves are dabbling in the gray zone too, often turning a blind eye to human rights violations when it doesn’t serve their interests.
West dabbling in the grey zone is putting it very politely!
Often committing it too, THE HISTORY OF IT IS TOO LONG.
@@benangel3268 let’s put it bluntly : america are friends of israeli zionists putting down the palistinians muslims vs fake american news about uighurs “genocide “ in china province of xinjiang .
White men speaks with forked tongue said a native chieftain in 1840 as the american army stole the native lands in what was called euphemistically the frontier wars . The descendants of land thieves today in america speaks with the same forked tongue too , befitting their ancestors .
@@benganchan1420
Sadly very true.
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Geopolitics isn't only about competition. Instead of competing Russia and China can cooperate to safeguard their mutual interests.
In fact their current allignment is based on this very fact - both Russia and China want to create a new world where cooperation is the ruling principle, not confrontation and that every country can enjoy true sovereignty in their foreign policy. Their world view is the complete opposite of Mearsheimer's view of great power competition.
Because of the threat of the United States, China and Russia have become friends.
So can the USA and the EU. Together, they controle more of the world's ecomomy than China and Russia. And by a long shot.
@@tinatang1 Putin does ? Really ?
Don't listen to BBC either.
The other ways that China has won are 1) China is able to buy oil and other commodities from Russia in RMB. This is also a leverage for China to convince other resource rich countries like Saudi to sell oil and Indonesia to sell coal to China in RMB. 2) Other countries now see USD as no longer a "safe" asset and started to diversify their foreign currency holdings to include more RMB and in the process weakening the status of USD as a global reserve currency. 3) Convince the US & its allies that in a war over Taiwan - if the West imposed sanctions on China (their biggest trading partner) then their economies will suffer badly as well like what is happening now with their sanctions on Russian energy and fertilizers.
Suppose you are a rich international business owner in China and you can be paid in RMB or USD. Which will you chose?
Note that your wife is living the good life in Singapore/Canada and spending $100k a year, while your daughter attends private boarding school in London and spends $50k a year. As a PRC citizen, only $50k worth of RMB can be converted to foreign currency each year.
So will your business accept payment in RMB or USD?
China needs to make the RMB more convertible and more transparent if it would be used by other countries. There is a tradeoff and they will need to decide which way to go.
My geopolitical saviour, Kishore, is here again. He always feeds me in geopolitics.
Hokumai - Feed u with bullshit
Jai Hinduja. He is a great geopolitical analysis but he had erred in thinking that Russia had lost the War. In fact, future war historians will be teaching their students of one of the greatest military feigns in history that Putin had pulled a bluff in trying to take over Kiev when in fact, his objective is always to root out the Ukrainian army, foreign mercenaries and neoNazis already fortified and dug themselves for eight years under the Steel plant in Mariupol paving the way for Russia to secure the entire Donbass and protecting Crimea.
I couldn't agree more with Prof. Kishore on the part where he said... stay away from the Anglo-Saxon medias if you want to look at the Rus-Ukr war. In fact, before i watched this clip, i had already stopped reading The Economist, Telegraph, Times, Financial Times, WSJ etc. To add on, don't even read Mirrors...
I can imagine graduates of the LKY school of public policy never reading any mainstream media...and getting their info from youtube/reddit...must do wonders for the credibility of their students (and the ability of these students to absorb contrarian perspectives).
@@nutellacreep You are wrong! In contra. they have read and compare to the actual fact and concluded western main stream mefias aare jokes and lies about the power they want to oppress. And those naive (i don't call them stupid) westerners only read read and read hence the world is painted as they wished. SAD n SIGH .......
Well, he reads those articles himself and tell you not to read it. 🙄 Just like all those elites who ask you to walk and ride bicycles while they fly private jets.
@@ggc7318 Wrong analogy. Stay away can mean do not believe it blindly.
@@szehianyap1092 OK I agree that was not the best analogy. In general I see these people forbid other to read or enjoy reading materials they themselves have access to.
My point was, he thinks he is smarter than you and me at making political decisions about what is right and wrong.
And we should only read articles he thinks is safe and just, according to his own biases.
I just started on the video and without knowing what he’s going to say, I can already recommend that his voice needs to be more heard in Singapore.
I really admire Prof. Kishore for his frankness and courageous disposing of the Anglo-Sax and some western medias ' lies about the Russ Ukr war. 👍👍👍👍👍
The possibility of ' No War ' between Ukraine n Russia is when Nato says NO to Ukraine joining Nato... to preverve d harmony between Russia n EU..
So you believe that there is no outright invasion but only a special operation. If so then you must be very naive to simply believe in the Putin/Xi propaganda given the scale of the destruction it has inflicted on the Ukrainian people.
Which conflict involving major powers does not have negative impacts on the rest of the world especially the poorer nations? Didn't the Russian navy blockade the Ukrainian Black Sea ports from day 1 of its invasion?
What is Krishore's agenda in not even apportioning some blame on Putin's unprovoked invasion of his smaller neighbour in magnifying the spikes in food and energy prices after 24/2?
@@wengsoonyuen2086 The fact that you pulled Xi into this has uncovered your biased view point influenced by the Western medias propagandas and lies. Why Xi? Were it not NATO encroachment to the Russian border, this conflict wouldn't have happened. Naive? You or me ?
On the point about foreign reserve, I have a different opinion. I would not classify whether China has "won" or "lost" on this category. In fact, there has been some discussions in China for quite a while that one of the "weapons" that America can use is to freeze the foreign reserves that China is holding; kick China out of the SWIFT system, or simply refuse to pay the interest of the US bonds that China is holding. Scholars have done research on this topic and came out with various opinions. Some said if the US were to take any of the above actions, it will not only hurt China, but the damage to the US would be greater, because it will trigger the untrustworthy of the US as a country and all countries would start to find ways to get away with their USD foreign reserves, dump their US bonds, find alternate ways in replacement of the SWIFT system. This would be the beginning of the fall of the US Empire.
Many Scholars in China said that the US would be too stupid to take this step, because this is like making a bet to see who will be the first to fail. This is too big a gamble, and the US is not ready to take this step.
Also the scholars have done a calculation on the US bonds, Foreign reserves etc. that China is holding against the US investments in China, and found that the US investments in China is still more than the reserves, bonds that China is holding. So China on the other hand can use these investments as a weapon against the US government too. This step is a 2-way sword. If the US dare to take the step of freezing any of the foreign assets that China is holding, China will definitely fight back by freezing the US investments in China too.
if US were to freeze Chinese assets in US. China can do the same to US assets in China. China would come out ahead.
when China normalized relation with US. China had to negotiate whether to honor bonds issued by the Qing/Ching government.
China haz not lost, won by killing usd.
@@willengel2458 just apple has 270billion investment in china. China
@@yang5159 freezing of Russians' assets and funds ruined US trust more than anything else. Saudis and other oil producers park their funds and assets in US, would think twice in the future.
Russia survived SWIFT, so can China. it is a wakeup call to other countries to de-dollarize.
@@yang5159 Well the thing is chinese investments in usa is much much greater.
With usa, don't forget to include eu, UK,Australia, Japan and South korea.
And as far as treasury bonds are concerned, apart from China, Japan, Korea and India are big buyers and almost all of them will be very happy if usa does impose sanctions.
In top 10 economies of the world, 8 are US security allies.
One was neutral(India) which China has now pushed into American camp
Mahbubani isn't a military analysis so what he says about a quick win isn't accurate. The initial phase 1 was to pin down Ukraine troops in Kiev and then take the east. The Ukraine and NTAO have been preparing for war for 8 years and so has Russia. This is why Russia can fight a prolonged campaign....
Of course pres Putin would be happier if his troops could take over Kiev directly in short time. But it didn't work so he had to change the strategy, to focus on the east and south instead.
Putin's brilliant move that everyone holding their breathe on Kyiv which was a military decoy against the West and especially the Ukrainian troops !
I think Kishore is right about China being neutral at this stage, but if push comes to shove China knows where it’s enemies lay. If the west were to invade Russia (unlikely in my opinion), China may wait to see how the conflict was going at first, but if Russia started to lose, China out of self interest could not sit back. China could not suffer the loss of oil and gas it gets from Russia and more importantly China would not want American troops in Russia on its Northern border. I think the west is in a weak position and it’s only hope is to carry on instigating proxy wars round the world where they don’t have to use their own troops like in Ukraine.
Zero chance for Russia to lose the war.
1990
NATO had 16 members.
1991
Collapse of the USSR
Russia - don't expand further
America - okay we will not expand (verbally, not written)
1999
Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off!
2004
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off. 。
2009
Albania and Croatia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off
2014
CIA funded Coup-de-tat to overthrow the legal government of Ukraine and install a Pro-Western US puppet government
2017
Montenegro and North Macedonia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - Where is the written document, so Jack off
2021
US proposal for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and
Ukraine to join NATO
Russia - enough is enough, you are betraying us ever since 1990s, if we allow you, you will deploy missiles on our borders.
Western World - Russia is so aggressive, they are evil, they don't think about humanity. Russia is expanding. Putin is being unreasonable. .
Hypocrite Western world!
Imagine if Canada and Mexico joined a military alliance with Russia and deployed missiles on its borders? The US will declare war for own security. Where was the West and the so called free world’s moralit for what the US did to secular regimes in Iraq, Afganistan ,Libya?
They turned a blind eye and destroyed these Middle Eastern countries all while funding terrorism and supporting Wahabbi Extremist theocracies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which sponsor terrorists around the world.
This is not the 1980’s. People have eyes and ears, the world has had enough of Western imperialism and Unipolar control over the rest of the world.
It’s about time the Western Hemisphere wakes up from its colonial wet dream of controlling the world and dictating who can and cannot be free.
Russia & China along with rest of the world should come together to form a balance of power to create a Multipolar World
China is a snake , when they see a winning side they will follow.
@@believeingood5875 - important the war last another 20 years. Russia will be in a good place on earth. Poor and useless.
how many countries will be able to withstand the first strike? Russia, China, US, and no other country has the size and population.
China only needs to look after Asia and Pacific and let Russia does what it needs to do. DF17, 21, and DF26 will keep the dogs at bay.
if US could do it, it would've done it already.
1) Russia and China may not be friends forever, but China and Russia would also unlikely to let either collapse and then fall under NATO's influence to be surrounded by NATO bases and have its supply chains further isolated from global economy. In the short term, Russia benefits if China has strong trade/economic relations with the USA. Implicit mutual understanding perhaps? Neither is forcing each other to take sides.
2) Expensive foreign policy is the privilege of the domestic electorate that is rich. Domestic electorate that is poor has no appetite for expensive foreign policy. Ray Dalio's latest book taught me that. The gamble is which part of the geography will succumb first to internal strife. I believe Putin saw that long time ago, and is gambling on that outlook. The Kiev thing could be to entice the West to miscalculate... The assumption that invasion of Kiev was to conquer whole of Ukraine in one fell swoop is a Western narrative, was not really look into if the assumption was wrong anyway.......... The West may be a victim of its own cancel culture or internal propaganda whatever it may be, resulting in less holistic understanding leading to suboptimal decision making.
2.1) USA should have helped fortify the economies of EU, rather than forcing the EU (via NATO) to work together with the USA to over-invest in Ukraine. The silence of Merkel (invited) at the G7 summit (at least no coverage by the media), thus it is obvious that her view is not aligned to the actions taken right now by the West. Also, EU is effectively USA's buffer to unfriendly forces, Robin to the Batman. An economically frail EU (with disenchanted domestic electorate that is poorer) weakens USA's buffer/its hold on Robin. EU as an entity may thus become obsolete or white elephant, to the detriment of the USA. I believe Putin was gambling on that too.
3) Putin seems to run his country like a CEO/entrepreneur. Most political analysts (especially anglo-saxon) are too welded in ideologies, and have no iota of experience when it comes to CEO or entrepreneurship experience....
4) in the view of macro-economics, the benefits to the west is relatively poor return on capital for its “investment” into ukraine. A total ukrainian win at the expense of Russia collapse will not be allowed by China. A pyrrhic Ukrainian win that is mediated and allowed by China would likely result in macro-economic failure of the EU. A ukrainian loss in an over-invested west is an even bigger macro-economic failure. A ukrainian loss without an over-invested west would have at least provide EU with stronger macro-economic fortification that’s beneficial to USA. Considering macro-economic lens, a loss aversion strategy if allowed by the USA would have been better for the EU but…. And Sale of weapons isn’t what can be considered as strong economic moat for the EU, or by extension, long term interest of the US having EU as its capable Robin.
5) what’s done is done, thus the war will likely end if electoral defeats are everywhere in the west which is increasingly likely. Any other way would likely result in even lower living standards for the west….and frailer liberal democracies
A long we’ll argued point of view. I have posted a somewhat abridged version myself. To allude to one point you made about how over investments in Ukraine gives a poor return is true if you are talking about return to in this case America’s coffers, but it is a good return on investment for the arms industry that sells its weapons to the govt paid for by the tax payers. No wonder 60% of the American population has no money and drowning in debt.
@@johnm7267 i agree
1990
NATO had 16 members.
1991
Collapse of the USSR
Russia - don't expand further
America - okay we will not expand (verbally, not written)
1999
Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off!
2004
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off. 。
2009
Albania and Croatia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off
2014
CIA funded Coup-de-tat to overthrow the legal government of Ukraine and install a Pro-Western US puppet government
2017
Montenegro and North Macedonia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - Where is the written document, so Jack off
2021
US proposal for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and
Ukraine to join NATO
Russia - enough is enough, you are betraying us ever since 1990s, if we allow you, you will deploy missiles on our borders.
Western World - Russia is so aggressive, they are evil, they don't think about humanity. Russia is expanding. Putin is being unreasonable. .
Hypocrite Western world!
Imagine if Canada and Mexico joined a military alliance with Russia and deployed missiles on its borders? The US will declare war for own security. Where was the West and the so called free world’s moralit for what the US did to secular regimes in Iraq, Afganistan ,Libya?
They turned a blind eye and destroyed these Middle Eastern countries all while funding terrorism and supporting Wahabbi Extremist theocracies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which sponsor terrorists around the world.
This is not the 1980’s. People have eyes and ears, the world has had enough of Western imperialism and Unipolar control over the rest of the world.
It’s about time the Western Hemisphere wakes up from its colonial wet dream of controlling the world and dictating who can and cannot be free.
Russia & China along with rest of the world should come together to form a balance of power to create a Multipolar World
Good lnsight Well Explained
I don't know about the opposition in Europe, but here in the United States the opposition to the current administration is not discussing backing off on Ukraine. Though our two parties may disagree about everything when it comes to domestic politics, our differences in International Relations is more a matter of degree than of doctrine. American hubris is steeped in both parties, and it permeates the public at large as well.
Some additional context in support of Mahbubani: China's statements regarding the Ukraine War were very similar to their statements regarding the Iraq War.
India has not condemned Russia, and even bought oil from Russia 😁. India react in her own interest, so does China.
I am a big fan of Prof. Mahbubani.
Hello, China has never been involved in Ukraine-Russia operation, why does the people try to link them together ?
It's really incredible to raise this question!
Kishore Mahbubani: the only sane/balanced analysis.. from someone who understands 'China' or the 'Chinese perspective' among the 'English speaking' Anglo-Saxon media...
Every time the U.S. tries to pivot against China, something happens that makes the U.S. need China: 2001 9-11, 2008 financial crisis, recent COVID then Russia-Ukraine war.
You mean need china even more, since even without all those things mentioned, they already cannot do without china. China makes everything and provides everything, including critical things like medicines and raw esrth materials that us military and high tech companies rely on. And that is just the tip of the iceberg, not to mention the trillion in us treasury bonds china owns or the half a trillion in trade china accounts for.
Then there is the international scene, where China's influence is critical, including North Korea, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, India, Vietnam, etc etc. all of USAs closest allies have china also as their biggest trade partner. China is too important for the world, even if USa decouples completely, the world including USAs closest allies will not. Saudi Arabia biggest export is to China for example. USA will just shoot itself in the foot going against China. It doesn't have thr strength or the friends.
1990
NATO had 16 members.
1991
Collapse of the USSR
Russia - don't expand further
America - okay we will not expand (verbally, not written)
1999
Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off!
2004
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off. 。
2009
Albania and Croatia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off
2014
CIA funded Coup-de-tat to overthrow the legal government of Ukraine and install a Pro-Western US puppet government
2017
Montenegro and North Macedonia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - Where is the written document, so Jack off
2021
US proposal for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and
Ukraine to join NATO
Russia - enough is enough, you are betraying us ever since 1990s, if we allow you, you will deploy missiles on our borders.
Western World - Russia is so aggressive, they are evil, they don't think about humanity. Russia is expanding. Putin is being unreasonable. .
Hypocrite Western world!
Imagine if Canada and Mexico joined a military alliance with Russia and deployed missiles on its borders? The US will declare war for own security. Where was the West and the so called free world’s moralit for what the US did to secular regimes in Iraq, Afganistan ,Libya?
They turned a blind eye and destroyed these Middle Eastern countries all while funding terrorism and supporting Wahabbi Extremist theocracies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which sponsor terrorists around the world.
This is not the 1980’s. People have eyes and ears, the world has had enough of Western imperialism and Unipolar control over the rest of the world.
It’s about time the Western Hemisphere wakes up from its colonial wet dream of controlling the world and dictating who can and cannot be free.
Russia & China along with rest of the world should come together to form a balance of power to create a Multipolar World
And we have ourselves a conspiracy theorist spreading hatred. Great job.
Because US wants to rule everything, not only China. So China is stable compared to other issues. If you want to rule the world, there are always new headache issues you need to deal with. It's not some conspiracy theory, just us' own karma.
@@henrywidjaja9631 Not sure why TH-cam hides lots of comments. If you are commenting on my post, I'd say God looks over China as it gave the U.S. Trump and Biden.
china is not a busybody like america. america is the world’s number 1 Busybody country
6:13 I share Prof Mahbubani's views and stopped subscription to The Economist 2 years' ago.
What the professor calls western solidarity looks more like occupied countries and subservience to me, in that EU countries do things NOT in their national interest. EU citizens are currently (as of July '22) having a tougher time than Russian citizens.
Enjoy listening to professor Kishore always.
Zelensky should be aware as the war drag longer, the poor get hungrier. Zelensky should also realise US attention have wane. US is turning the next chapter, Taiwan
As a puppet, Zelensky has NO feelings for his people and NO Freedom to decide. the puppet's master is pulling all the strings.
Yes, US can't wait to turn their attention to Taiwan. But when they do that, it'll cause Ukraine fall rapidly. And China has been very patient with all US provocation. China will keep take their next move patiently and cautiously to give no room for US or NATO to be used to attack them.
Less likely about Taiwan.
Tsai Ing-wen has only two years left in office
For the US, Ukraine is objective achieved.
1990
NATO had 16 members.
1991
Collapse of the USSR
Russia - don't expand further
America - okay we will not expand (verbally, not written)
1999
Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off!
2004
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off. 。
2009
Albania and Croatia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off
2014
CIA funded Coup-de-tat to overthrow the legal government of Ukraine and install a Pro-Western US puppet government
2017
Montenegro and North Macedonia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - Where is the written document, so Jack off
2021
US proposal for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and
Ukraine to join NATO
Russia - enough is enough, you are betraying us ever since 1990s, if we allow you, you will deploy missiles on our borders.
Western World - Russia is so aggressive, they are evil, they don't think about humanity. Russia is expanding. Putin is being unreasonable. .
Hypocrite Western world!
Imagine if Canada and Mexico joined a military alliance with Russia and deployed missiles on its borders? The US will declare war for own security. Where was the West and the so called free world’s moralit for what the US did to secular regimes in Iraq, Afganistan ,Libya?
They turned a blind eye and destroyed these Middle Eastern countries all while funding terrorism and supporting Wahabbi Extremist theocracies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which sponsor terrorists around the world.
This is not the 1980’s. People have eyes and ears, the world has had enough of Western imperialism and Unipolar control over the rest of the world.
It’s about time the Western Hemisphere wakes up from its colonial wet dream of controlling the world and dictating who can and cannot be free.
Russia & China along with rest of the world should come together to form a balance of power to create a Multipolar World
All this could have been prevented if Russia had been allowed to join the common market, but the boss in America said “ No “.
True that! America always needs an enemy to exist. At that time, even after Soviet Union collpased, it was still Russia. China was still weak.
Russia appealed 3 times to join NATO but was rejected. This Ukraine War could have been avoided if the West did not threaten to make Ukraine a Nato member and if Nato and the US had agreed to Putin's demand for a legally binding security guarantee, last December. The UK and US purposely instigated this war to weaken Russia. Now they have to face karma and become weakened themselves. What a paradox!
Which "common market"? And when did Russia apply?
Do you mean joining NATO?
read an analysis: 1. the US is financed and controlled by 4 sectors/groups, being oil and gas, banking, arms, and a group of ex politicians, 2. The US government has agreed with its arms industry to ignite the Ukrainian war in exchange for pulling out of Afghanistan where the US had single handly conducted the war on its own for over 20 years, 3. The war in Ukraine has been benefiting greatly the US's arms sector and oil and gas industry. 4. This war has also forced the EU to distance itself from Russia. Obviously, no intention from the US government to stop the war, despite high inflation, and high oil prices in its domestic market, as the US is not a state of the people, for the people, and by the people. The US is a plutocracy, with rich politicians fighting for the benefits of its key industrial and political sectors at the expense of both its people and the world.
Prof. Kishore is a genius in geopolitical issues.
It is very simple to understand who wants war and who does not and why. Prof Kishore manages to explain too clearly that many would be very unhappy with him for speaking the truth. The facts remain, it is the media that is trying to confuse the ignorant.
Most clear readout about China's position towards Ukraine war. Thank you!
The alternative view presented clearly and logically, what a pity that the West is prevented from hearing it. Unipolar means our view is correct no need to listen to anything else.
One country makes all the rules and the rest must follow - Unipolar
1990
NATO had 16 members.
1991
Collapse of the USSR
Russia - don't expand further
America - okay we will not expand (verbally, not written)
1999
Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off!
2004
Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off. 。
2009
Albania and Croatia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - where is the written document, so Jack off
2014
CIA funded Coup-de-tat to overthrow the legal government of Ukraine and install a Pro-Western US puppet government
2017
Montenegro and North Macedonia joined NATO
Russia - but you said you won't expand!
America - Where is the written document, so Jack off
2021
US proposal for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia and
Ukraine to join NATO
Russia - enough is enough, you are betraying us ever since 1990s, if we allow you, you will deploy missiles on our borders.
Western World - Russia is so aggressive, they are evil, they don't think about humanity. Russia is expanding. Putin is being unreasonable. .
Hypocrite Western world!
Imagine if Canada and Mexico joined a military alliance with Russia and deployed missiles on its borders? The US will declare war for own security. Where was the West and the so called free world’s moralit for what the US did to secular regimes in Iraq, Afganistan ,Libya?
They turned a blind eye and destroyed these Middle Eastern countries all while funding terrorism and supporting Wahabbi Extremist theocracies in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States which sponsor terrorists around the world.
This is not the 1980’s. People have eyes and ears, the world has had enough of Western imperialism and Unipolar control over the rest of the world.
It’s about time the Western Hemisphere wakes up from its colonial wet dream of controlling the world and dictating who can and cannot be free.
Russia & China along with rest of the world should come together to form a balance of power to create a Multipolar World
Phase 1 of the Special Military Operation (watching from the outside). 1. - 40k troops were never going to capture a city of 3 million. 2 - The 40k Russian troops helped shape the battlefield, a. It kept vital troops locked up in Kiev. b. The Ukrainian government was not sure if these 40k troops were actually going to attempt to capture Kiev? 2. With no possibility of re-enforcements from the north and Kiev, Russia checked the Ukrainian Donbass army (the army that was about to invade the Donbass republics) who stopped any ideas of an advance. 3 - Russia destroyed the Ukrainian airforce and navy. 4 - Russia took Kerson. 5 - Russia setup and took Mariupol. phase 2 - is now.
You are correct the Russian Kiev operation was a fixing operation to keep Ukrainian troops from leaving the Kiev area to reinforce the Ukrainian defense lines in the Donbass.
Kishore is an objective and truthful analyst and speaker. The world needs more people like him.
Great analysis always!
Wow, fantastic insights and analysis. Thank you.
Sir, you was going good in your assesment, but you wrongly said Russia "INVADED', Ukrainian, you failed to make mention that this was started in 2014,.....
If China and India don’t take position, why is Singapore taking sides, being vocal and sanctioned Russia? Is it wise and helpful for Singapore to be involved in geopolitical contest? Is it time for Singapore to stop being reliant on US Weapons?
The short answer to that is Singapore is not stupid enuff to break their rice bowl. It was a calculated risk.
@@stargate8811 LKY don’t always agree to US over rice bowl. Such as canning of michael fay and hanging. The only time we take position is during the Invasion of Cambodia by Vietnam, when LKY ask CN “Till when does CN want to sit idle-by till?”
Singapore can kick Russia now because Russia cant retaliate. Thus Singapore can make US happy for free.
Very good remarks...fair and creative.
The West...US. and NATO should talk to Russia how to end the Ukraine war...instead of putting more arms and fire powers to extend the war further.
American are using nato to tackle China as the american cannot tackle china anymore...
Be calm and observe the development of situations first, take neutral position. One who strike or take position last will win the game.
One of the best analysis of China’s position, and reality of Russia with regards to the Ukraine war. No propagandas whatsoever!
United States is interested to maintain its dominance in the world. Yet history has proven that US decisions always ended up with something totally against its own initial wish and desire. For example, one silly move of US back in 1945 provided a window which ultimately led to the rise of the communist party in China. NATO under the leadership of US tried to contain Russia and followed by China. The first effect is the weakening of US$ dominance as the world reserve currency. Sanction against Russia has pushed several countries to promote trade with their own currencies in order to avoid similar sanctions from US in future. The western media will definitely blame Russia for the backlash in their domestic countries. But for the rest of the developing world who refused to sanction Russia will think otherwise. This will have devastating long-term effect worldwide on the western countries specially on US itself.
Americans should learn an ancient Chinese saying:- When someone drives a dog into a dead end lane, the dog will fight back.
Russia Ukraine war shows that how the west can join together to sanction a country, even though EUROPE relys so much on Russia's energy. Imagine a small country will be in Russia's position. Oh wait, that's Cuba, NK, Afghan, and many others. In old days, small countries can not survive in this sanctions, even large countries, now they have new hope, BRICS.
But is brics a hope?
Russia is practically weakened and is in recession and it will continue to be for long time. It's exports were oil and defence.
Russian defence exports have been falling even before the war and it will continue to fall more since its biggest buyer(India) is now diversifying and russian weapon industry has also been cut off from modern chips and terminators.
And russia will sell oil but at very heavy discount. So in total, russia is in decline if you think realistically.
I have enormous respect for a thinker who's able to project his mind into the future, drawing on all the evidence of history and geopolitical politics, to draw a fantastically accurate prediction of what is likely to occur almost with the exactitude of mathematics. Prof Kishore Mahbubani is able to almost effortlessly accomplish this task: the streets of Paris erupted more than twice, the streets of all the western nations are heaving in protests, war fatigue has paralysed decision making in the executive and legislative branches of many western governments, including the EU & NATO. And there's no question that Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Western economies are tanking due to high inflation and cost of living.
Very insightful speech
Leave China out of this.
overall a wonderful analysis.
Democracy is a great system provided it is run by disciplined and peace loving politicians. It's always stained by overly unscrupulous and greed capitalism, which needs to be managed and controlled.
Kishore's analysis on China lost is not convincing. How is the West sanctions on Russian reserves a loss of China? First of all, Russia handled the sanction really well. Now EU will have to pay Ruble. The value of Ruble has increased. Second, the west Financial sanction on Russia provides a wake up call to China, which revealed an otherwise hidden risk to China's financial security. China has been reducing its US T-bond holdings constantly, which otherwise won't happen without the Ukraine war. I would say China has won big in long term. Now more and more trading between China and other countries are settled in Chinese Yuan, including trade with US ally Australia. Also, Ukraine war has isolated the West. The global South has been united. The US and West has lost their credibility big time. Even Mexico boycotted the America Summit.
you are absolutely collect.
When Superpowers collide, there is nowhere to hide and every nation and its people will be poorer for it. There are no winners.
Ukraine war would have isolated the west but all countries are following sanctions.
For your kind information, there is no sanctions imposed on oil yet
It is a mistake to seriously think that Russia wanted to take Kiev.Your other remarks are truly insightful and thought provoking.
Thank you
I think Russia would have liked to take Kiev. Whether or not they expected it is, at this point, unknown imho.
Look like the world have to quickly move away using USD and the Swift system !!
Actually everyone is losing when the world is being divided
Pro. K. Mahbubani's views on China are very much more balanced than that of Kevin Rudd
In WAR, there is no winner....all participants are losers, the question, in what measure and in what form and manner. Actually, every human being, on the Earth Planet, is also a loser.
FIFTHLY
The Dead weight impact of refugees from Ukraine on Europe has also not been discussed.
Whilst it could have played a part as a third pole to balance China and the US, it is now looking increasingly rudderless, fragmented.
The socio/economic burden of all the recent refugees will also be a hit on europe.
Potentially, there will be a further split between the wealthier North and the struggling South Eastern part of the union.
Whilst on paper the over inflated Russian threat may draw in Nordic hopefuls like insignificant population Sweden and Finland (who seem to have a death wish painting a target on their backs for Russian nukes), in reality many South and Eastern countries are more concern with their economies at risk.
I'm not sure I agree with Prof Mahbubani that europe is as galvanized as seems.
Again this is a mirage the west prefer to cherish bc its press/media need to advertise a win.
Its called propaganda. Reality on the ground will be rather different.
The Russians have anticipated this war since 2014 and have been quietly waiting for the right moment. If anything, the west underestimates Russian appetite for punishment.
Russia won't be going anywhere with Ukraine. This is the reality on the doorstep Europe will have to contend with and come to accommodation instead of further aggravating the situation with an expansive NATO largely at the expense of unfortunate Ukraine and their terrible (neo Nazi endorsing) leadership.
Scarily the refugee burden issue in Europe, plus energy crisis impending may further engender Neo Fascist to gain ground and polarise politics there further.
Whilst West so called 'superior' democratic system is based on four year cycle popularity contests and near term firefighting, Russia and China have ability to take the long view and calibrate with that in frame.
Excellent observation
I heard him say revitalization of Western solidarity and figured I was wasting my time. They are more divided than ever. Activation of US assets gives you a flare..but that's just that.
Well said, sagacious and with depth of complexity.
Unlike the dishonest Western Media this gentleman always speaks the truth. Besides, he is fair and knowledge as well. 👍👍👍
Agree overall. Except knowing that FX reserves are liabilities are a WIN! Can preplan for future potential conflict
an in depth forum and gives insights.
Interesting to see Singapore is siding with the west response despite the majority of countries arent on the same page. Is Singapore being pressured to take position to be political correct ,unlike Japan or Korea which can't be regarded as truly independent as a nation.
Regards to what?
Singapore is not on the side of US regards to China
It was a measured respond. Listen to the city's ambassador speech to the United Nations and the way it was framed and articulated.
US Military garrisons in any country will make that country a puppet, everybody can see it.
If you want to be a financial centre in this world, you can't be totally independent. Because you have to go through SWIFT and immediately you are under the control of the US of A and by end of the day, you can't be too neutral.
@@stargate8811 Well, Singapore has voted on all un resulations against Russia.
What you say isn't important, what you do is.
👍👍👍Biggest winner in the long-term will be 🇨🇳. 👏👏👏
If only china tries to make allies.
US has an army of slaves - eu,UK,Japan,Australia, New Zealand, South korea
Used to think BBC n certain American media were The source of correct news. How wrong i was. As a neighbor of Singapore i admire Lee Kuan Yew n also Prof Kishore.
Yeah… I can’t find the comment. My advice to TH-cam.. create a way for us to view our previous comments.
Thank you for the insight. Is Singapore on the same path as Russia should the west decide to sanction us? Will we lost trillion asset overnight? What future path is Singapore taking coming from the Ukraine war experience?
Till now I believe, no Singaporean is able to handle this truth and shall not want to know the ultimate Truth. Let it rest... 😇
@@davidwoon6402 ? Huh? Why can’t Singaporean handle the truth? What is the ultimate truth? Is there a truth behind a truth? 🤔
It is not conceivable for Singapore to invade Malaysia or Indonesia. Not sure who you are going to invade to incur sanctions...Most likely, Singaporeans need to worry about whether sanctions will be strong enough if China invades Singapore (trade is no defense as Ukraine will tell you...and the south china sea is right next to Indonesia).
@@TeslaGalantic_cro Well if you don't know, Singapore is one of the most clever countries. It plays two sides(as it should since it's a small country).
Yes let’s give peace a chance
Are you going to tell Putin?
Nice talk.
@kishore you have not pointed out all the factors that have led to a tumultuous 2022 year for the CCP especially in the run up to its oct/nov congress.
other than covid19 and the ukraine war, the following are other factors affecting the PRC:
#1 PRC citizens are begining to flee the country
#2 bank liquidity crisis afflecting the citizenry
#3 PRC marked economic downturn
#4 PRC citizens and SME owners choosing to lie flat and to let it rot
#5 mortgage repayment crisis
#6 property development debt crisis
#7 looming high speed rail debt
China has not lost anything. It wasnt in a contest.
Very wise!!!
India may be the largest democracy in the world but she has insignificant political clout. Sadly, it does not even have a say in events close to it’s borders.
The problem for India is its caste system that has not been fixed. Also, democracy does not necessarily bring prosperity to a country, India is the example.
@@jchanmcse the caste system will not be fixed because major politics revolve around that ....my guess is it will take another 20 years to create a concrete footing for all citizens...and slowly but surely the veil of caste will disappear ....I can't say it for sure ...rather then whining about it ...it's good to be optimistic 🥲....(these damn politicians)
Peace is always wining ! China is peace.
A wise geopolitician sharing his views.....👍👍👍
Love listening to prof kishore for this insights
Bravos to prof. Kishore. Brilliant man
He is a CCP shill in CCP's pocket.
a war is always a lost for the ascending power. however if you believe in zero sum, this war hurt anti China forces greatly, it is like Aragon taking his Middleearth army to the gate of Mordor, and it has turn the Eye of Sauron away from China. the Ukraine war show western arrogance to the extreme, despite it is clearly not in their interest, they cannot help themselves but to prolong the war. this is disheartening for the rest of the world to watch, as it break the illusion that Europe is rule by rational to one that is rule by fear.
Why always is about China !?
Russia and China will become more like the US and Canada?
The Euro-Asia market is much bigger....
More the opposite will happen
I don't think so. First thing first the cultural differences, unlike US and Canada, both from Anglo Saxon colonizer root. Secondly, China and Russia both have hisrtorital grevience against one another. In Russia's eye, China was the traitor that led to Soviet collapse. In China's view, Russia took so much land from China, easily dwarf what Britain took in Opium War.
@@MichaelZhuang logic doesn't hold
Your logic doesn't hold either. Canada is controlled by USA. Russia and China are both nuclear power.
China gain is more than China loss.
On the other hand, India gains big, big and loses nothing.
Who said that? India has already spent much of it's budget in 1st 3 months due to the ongoing war.
Gain and losses comes from how you act and do..not just on situation
India may gain some from situations..but lately India did a lot of self-sabotage by kicking out companies
awsome that's what I was expecting as I share ur conclusion though on the grounds that india has not condemned Russias position clearly whereas China has done the same but placidly as both China n india hv a common fate in the long run as well keeping in view the China n Russia vicinity geographically though ?
Chinese known to trun the table around by work very hard selflessly not afraid any challenges,
Stop the war? Who started the war?? Then ask the weaker country to just surrender? I wonder what happens when any country try to attack Singapore? We are weak… just surrender for peace….
Singapore will not put ourselves in a Proxy War
US started this War... Ukraine was stupid enough to fall for it
@kishore u did not mention the big lesson that the CCP learnt from the ukraine war which is...
that the CCP was looking at the ukraine - russia war as a template for its impending potential move on taiwan.
i wld hazard a guess that the strong (and long duration of) resistance put up by ukraine against the russian attacks was a loud warning and clear lesson to the CCP that pulling off a similar near term move/stunt on taiwan might not be a walk in the park for the CCP after all.
in this regard i wld argue that if ukraine was swiftly and easily taken over by russia, president xi wld have copied the same move and sought a quick win to seal his 3rd term.
but alas it is not to be and the calculations for president xi are not so simple.
Friends with no limits
in one respect china has started to set up a separate financial system outside of western control and learned how russia has evaded sanctions
Again I love hearing Professor's insight. On the $3 trillion foreign reserve, pardon my ignorance on this topic, can't China just hold it in RMB? What's stopping China to do so pls? Anybody here who is able to shed light on this will be highly appreciated. Thank you.
This is to avoid appreciation of Yuan by holding sufficiently foreign reserves say USD. Appreciation of Yuan will affect China's export.
Thank you. I see, is there a solution?
@@sinbinny The solution is making RMB the reserve currency in the world.
In that way, China doesn't need reserves. It could just print money like USA.
But for that leading economies will have to initiate it.
Except Russia and very small African countries, no country has done it.
BRICS could have been an alternative but the fight between China and india has made it just an acronym