Love the minor league content, Lance! Appreciate you sharing data that’s not publicly available. Hopefully sooner rather than later Statcast is implemented throughout MiLB. As someone who analyzes MiLB, it’s extremely challenging to provide thorough analysis without access to trackman data.
Yeah, I hope they unlock all levels at some point. Doesn’t really make sense to me why it’s not already released. Likely has to do with data provider contracts. 🤷♂️
Great stuff, Lance! It’s basically DC season 😂 Question: the contact and zcontact column numbers seem really low (40-50%)… those are usually 70-80, on FG at least.
Just a different denominator for that I believe. FG is taking percent of all swings, this stat is taking percent of all pitches I believe. No ideal, but all I have access to 👍
new lance vid yeahhhhhhhh. do you think that minor league pitching and hitting match each other? or is one side more dominant than the other, i remember hearing some broadcasters talk about how they thought minor league pitchers got brought up too fast which negatively impacts hitting
I think the central problem is exactly what you heard from that broadcaster - we have pretty good objective info as to when we think a pitcher is ready, so we see more guys skipping AAA As a result, hitters really only get to face MLB-level pitching scarcely in the minors and then constantly in the majors. I think this is why a lot of guys struggle off the bat. This kind of always happened, but I think data has made the gap worse. Unsure if it’s “unbalanced” per se, but I think hitters need to face MLB pitching whereas it’s less essential for pitchers to face MLB hitters in order to be good. At the end of the day, pitchers have the initiative. It’ll always be easier for them to train
Great video, love the info. I am curious when looking at someone like Xavier Isaac, what do you make of the big whiff issues? He stings the ball when he makes contact and lifts it, but of those top avg exit velo guys, he had the lowest contact%, highest swing and miss, and lowest zone contact of the group (if I am reading swm and Z-conact%) of the group, and reports are starting to highlight the whiff issues, including in zone, as an area of concern. You still said you seem him as a top 25 overall prospect, do you just expect those whiff issues to improve as he matures as a hitter and keeps seeing more advanced pitching? HIs background was he didn't face much advanced pitching or do the showcase circuit in high school and it was only his 2nd pro season.
Whiff concerns obviously an issue, no doubt. Exercise here was more to try and find which variables line up with consensus "top prospects." It's boring, but I think of prospects pretty probabilistically -- what is the % chance they figure out something that helps them leap up. And for most of those adjustments, they land in the 30-70% window, which is a wide range, but even if you think there's only a 30% chance Isaac cuts his whiff issues to slightly worse than MLB average with plus pop, that's a great outcome, and things happen 30% of the time more than we think.
I find this question particularly interesting, because it reminds me of another guy who also falls into the high SwStr%/high chase%/low z-contact% (and overall contact) bucket: Mark Vientos. As a result, I’ve been reluctant to fully buy into his breakout. However, Nick Pollack was talking about one of Pitcher List’s new decision metrics recently, and he said that Vientos did really well in that metric, and thus Nick was buying in. I need to look into it more though, as I heard it pretty quickly and don’t recall the details.
It'd be here:baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast-search-minors?hfPT=FF%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=is%5C.%5C.tracked%7C&hfLevel=&metric_1=&hfTeamAffiliate=&hfOpponentAffiliate=&group_by=name&min_pitches=100&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_is..tracked=on&chk_stats_api_break_x_arm=on&chk_stats_api_break_z_induced=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_velocity=on&chk_stats_release_pos_z=on&chk_stats_release_extension=on#results You're going to have to get comfortable with the Savant search tab, which can be dense, but the link above goes to how I'd look at 4S variables from AAA this season. Any questions, let me know
We’d definitely expect more 4S from that over the top slot He only throws 90 (part of the issue with his ERA), pitch has 17” vert with 8” arm side from his 6.3’ release Clearly a below-average pitch. He’s very similar to Joey Cantillo where it’s all about the CH and figuring out how the rest of the mix can support the pitch. I’d be surprised if the goal there isn’t to push velocity
@@LanceBroz The shape seems like poor for his delivery. We might expect some 18+ ivb especially milb ball should provide more. Sinker might works better? Humphries was famous for breaking ball rather than changeup. This is a super interesting progression.
Love the minor league content, Lance! Appreciate you sharing data that’s not publicly available. Hopefully sooner rather than later Statcast is implemented throughout MiLB. As someone who analyzes MiLB, it’s extremely challenging to provide thorough analysis without access to trackman data.
Yeah, I hope they unlock all levels at some point. Doesn’t really make sense to me why it’s not already released. Likely has to do with data provider contracts. 🤷♂️
Love your videos!
Loved the video as always
🫡🫡🫡
Great stuff, Lance! It’s basically DC season 😂
Question: the contact and zcontact column numbers seem really low (40-50%)… those are usually 70-80, on FG at least.
Just a different denominator for that I believe. FG is taking percent of all swings, this stat is taking percent of all pitches I believe.
No ideal, but all I have access to 👍
If that Acosta dude gets a cutter with some rise and break to it, he could be unhittable. Imagine how that would tunnel
new lance vid yeahhhhhhhh. do you think that minor league pitching and hitting match each other? or is one side more dominant than the other, i remember hearing some broadcasters talk about how they thought minor league pitchers got brought up too fast which negatively impacts hitting
I think the central problem is exactly what you heard from that broadcaster - we have pretty good objective info as to when we think a pitcher is ready, so we see more guys skipping AAA
As a result, hitters really only get to face MLB-level pitching scarcely in the minors and then constantly in the majors. I think this is why a lot of guys struggle off the bat. This kind of always happened, but I think data has made the gap worse.
Unsure if it’s “unbalanced” per se, but I think hitters need to face MLB pitching whereas it’s less essential for pitchers to face MLB hitters in order to be good.
At the end of the day, pitchers have the initiative. It’ll always be easier for them to train
Great video, love the info. I am curious when looking at someone like Xavier Isaac, what do you make of the big whiff issues? He stings the ball when he makes contact and lifts it, but of those top avg exit velo guys, he had the lowest contact%, highest swing and miss, and lowest zone contact of the group (if I am reading swm and Z-conact%) of the group, and reports are starting to highlight the whiff issues, including in zone, as an area of concern. You still said you seem him as a top 25 overall prospect, do you just expect those whiff issues to improve as he matures as a hitter and keeps seeing more advanced pitching? HIs background was he didn't face much advanced pitching or do the showcase circuit in high school and it was only his 2nd pro season.
Whiff concerns obviously an issue, no doubt. Exercise here was more to try and find which variables line up with consensus "top prospects." It's boring, but I think of prospects pretty probabilistically -- what is the % chance they figure out something that helps them leap up. And for most of those adjustments, they land in the 30-70% window, which is a wide range, but even if you think there's only a 30% chance Isaac cuts his whiff issues to slightly worse than MLB average with plus pop, that's a great outcome, and things happen 30% of the time more than we think.
@@LanceBroz thank you for the response, it helped my understanding. Keep up the good work.
I find this question particularly interesting, because it reminds me of another guy who also falls into the high SwStr%/high chase%/low z-contact% (and overall contact) bucket: Mark Vientos. As a result, I’ve been reluctant to fully buy into his breakout. However, Nick Pollack was talking about one of Pitcher List’s new decision metrics recently, and he said that Vientos did really well in that metric, and thus Nick was buying in. I need to look into it more though, as I heard it pretty quickly and don’t recall the details.
I love this type of content! Keep it coming Lance!
Thanks!
That DePaula number has gotta be a misread but he’s a beast.
It probably is, but a boy can dream! haha
If you were to look for the publically available data for AAA (for pitch movement for ex.) where would you find it?
It'd be here:baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast-search-minors?hfPT=FF%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2024%7C&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=is%5C.%5C.tracked%7C&hfLevel=&metric_1=&hfTeamAffiliate=&hfOpponentAffiliate=&group_by=name&min_pitches=100&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&chk_is..tracked=on&chk_stats_api_break_x_arm=on&chk_stats_api_break_z_induced=on&chk_stats_xslg=on&chk_stats_velocity=on&chk_stats_release_pos_z=on&chk_stats_release_extension=on#results
You're going to have to get comfortable with the Savant search tab, which can be dense, but the link above goes to how I'd look at 4S variables from AAA this season. Any questions, let me know
Great vid
Thanks!
I am curious about humphries fastball shape? Sinker or 4 seamer
We’d definitely expect more 4S from that over the top slot
He only throws 90 (part of the issue with his ERA), pitch has 17” vert with 8” arm side from his 6.3’ release
Clearly a below-average pitch. He’s very similar to Joey Cantillo where it’s all about the CH and figuring out how the rest of the mix can support the pitch.
I’d be surprised if the goal there isn’t to push velocity
@@LanceBroz The shape seems like poor for his delivery. We might expect some 18+ ivb especially milb ball should provide more. Sinker might works better? Humphries was famous for breaking ball rather than changeup. This is a super interesting progression.