Bayes theorem was for 200 years a mathematical oddity, statistical thinking was dominated by frequentist ideas. It requires lots of computational power. Silver and other young statisticians have a new tool for predicting with increasing accuracy with updated evidence. This is a dramatic tool kit addition. we old statisticians are increasingly impressed and jealous of the changed potential for giving probabilities of increasing accuracy and precision. Read the book if you can.
Sadly I agree, it was a waste of time for you to watch this, how could you miss the point so much? The point he brought out repeatedly was that people who are looking for easy and definite answers are fundamentally misunderstanding the process of these sciences. Its not for producing sensational headlines. You want to find the signal? The lesson is that you need to accept that you probably can't, and beware of those selling you it. Be less confident & more content jugging uncertainty.
I love the last thing he said "I am happy to be merely competent in the land of the blind, deaf and dumb, than to have to beat the experts over at the stock market."
what does it exactly mean? is there a "read inbetween the lines" meaning or is it a straightforward statement that he doesn't like to be a part of the stock market?
@@faracanthaceae4946 Which means that he is in search of the truth, not of the money, this is because data science is used for economics, to earn much money as possible, but data science is important for all fields not just economics
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Bayes theorem was for 200 years a mathematical oddity, statistical thinking was dominated by frequentist ideas. It requires lots of computational power. Silver and other young statisticians have a new tool for predicting with increasing accuracy with updated evidence. This is a dramatic tool kit addition. we old statisticians are increasingly impressed and jealous of the changed potential for giving probabilities of increasing accuracy and precision. Read the book if you can.
Sadly I agree, it was a waste of time for you to watch this, how could you miss the point so much?
The point he brought out repeatedly was that people who are looking for easy and definite answers are fundamentally misunderstanding the process of these sciences. Its not for producing sensational headlines.
You want to find the signal? The lesson is that you need to accept that you probably can't, and beware of those selling you it. Be less confident & more content jugging uncertainty.
I love the last thing he said "I am happy to be merely competent in the land of the blind, deaf and dumb, than to have to beat the experts over at the stock market."
what does it exactly mean? is there a "read inbetween the lines" meaning or is it a straightforward statement that he doesn't like to be a part of the stock market?
@@faracanthaceae4946 Which means that he is in search of the truth, not of the money, this is because data science is used for economics, to earn much money as possible, but data science is important for all fields not just economics
Nate's the man. Awesome.
But his predictions aren't....
11.23.2022 I discovered Nate ! happy day )
damn Nate actually had hair
Wait wait how did dara o'briain turn up here?!
why is dara o briain interviewing nate silver?
The classic example of a mouthpiece for the establishment. His predictions aren't great/accurate either
#echo #ping
#ping #echo #ping
Might have given Archilochus a credit for the hedgehog and the fox metaphor (or at least Isaiah Berlin).
Cool, now do the 2016 election.
This video does not "show how we can isolate a true "signal" from a universe of increasingly big and noisy data." Waste of time watching this.
Irony of course being that he is a hedgehog criticizing other hedgehogs.