You can now join our premium TH-cam membership where we share COT charts on Stocks, Crypto and member-only market recap videos. th-cam.com/channels/P37ZqE3gN9Jxl2jtnvO8eA.htmljoin Learn more about Jason and the CMR Community at www.crowdedmarketreport.com
I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other TH-cam trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to Follow❤
I've been making a lot of looses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
Violet Zyaire. signals and prediction is awesome actually i was skeptical at first lol, until I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome! I can't say much.
When I say testimonies all over the place I thought it was all made up stories till I was convinced and gave her a try and honesty I don't regret the move I made because I invested in a big way
Bonds - I think the market will start pricing in a pause after this cut and I expect a little hawkish talk following this cut. I think bonds will rally, especially if we get a small equity pullback in the ST. Everyone saying they have no idea why fed is cutting. 1. Labor rolling over and most importantly, there are $1.8 T (with a T) of bonds to reprice next 1.5 -2 years. They are boxed in, 100% have to get rates down. There's not much to discuss in that regard. However, Fed cutting doesn't mean long rates drop, as we've seen rates rise. Bottom line to me, short term I think TLT closes at 100 by year end.
Hi Jason, I totally enjoy your analysis. Can you please shed some light on why GER40 is at all times high given the recent government collapse? Is that due to the rate cuts and markets focusing on better times ahead? Thank you!
The fed is desperate avoiding a recession by cutting in an environment where stocks are trading at ATH, where inflation is sticky and the economy is robust on paper… they should immediately pause and keep rates here for at least 6 months and see what it does to the system. Gonna be interesting i think they actually do pause next week..
@ you usually cut rates when the economy is weakening and therefore the market is below ATH. Cutting cycles usually start a bear market like 2007 or 90s. In some rare occasions rate cuts boost markets a lot but only if a recession can be avoided and a soft landing is achieved which I do not see. I know market rallies can be deceiving and we like strong markets for now, but under the hood things do not look great at all. The latest jobs data is signaling a significant cooling, likely quicker than what the fed wants to see. It’s gonna be interesting 2025. Good luck with your trading / investing
@@waynesnelling8259 it appears to me that the fed is pretty much forced to cut rates as the debt is starting to become to expensive, they need to lower rates in order to pay off debt
They won’t stop cutting. Made exactly same mistake in 2007. Same rate cut schedule as back then. Focused to much on inflation and not enough on unemployment. Emergency cuts in Feb. cpi back to 5 in April just like 2008
I agree with you on crude, those are news failures. Of course, I am biased because I am long crude! 😅but I can't see how else to look at a steady grind higher despite news of lack of demand and ample gasoline. The Dow is weighted by the health care companies and those got rocked today, that might have something to do with the Dow failure. Because Nvidia, Salesforce, Apple etc had a good day. Makes a lot of sense to me on bonds but maybe because I agree with this, we're both wrong and we'll get hit with a monkey wrench, but what can you do, that's the market!
Hey Jason can you do Cane sugar futures? I showed Nick Timiros a pic of a potential cup and handle and ask him what Jerome “Arthur Burns” plan was if it brokeout. Nick blocked me
I got confused a bit on this video - you said probability of a rate cut went up to 100% but also that it was "a pretty big move up in rates today, especially on the long end"
When the Fed cuts rates it influences the short end not the long end for rates.The long end went up because the Fed’s current rate cutting policy while risk assets are at all time highs (due to the system being full of liquidity) is considered to be inflationary- long end rates went up to discount future inflation. The market’s expectation of a rate cut in Dec went up to 100% - however they haven’t factored in the possibility of a rate pause.
Returning to my profession after a long break is taking my attention away from financial markets. That is a problem! Can you please make a video offering tips and advice for speculators who are trying to strike a balance. Ideally, I could focus 100% on trading and investing. Keywords: work-life balance, work-life harmony :)
How much is bitcoins increase due to other countries (outside the USA) trying to get money out? You mentioned Canada, they’ve limited how much Bitcoin you can buy. Is this part of the reason for bitcoins growth.
Thank you. Interesting. What do you think about S&P500? Small traders have heavy long positions, while large traders and commercial hedgers are shorting.
Not sure why people think rate cut next week is a done deal. Core month over month hasn’t budged since August. Some commodities are going up, employment seems to be weakening and the FOMC is going to cut? Big mistake imo
Is it possible the government/FED would "scare the markets" in order to refinance all this debt at lower interest? It would be pretty bad if they have to refinance trillions at 4% in 2025.
@ actually You Can do when it’s a Part of your Edge. The better question would be: what is the time horizon? What’s the stop and when it’s not longer a part of your pre defined setup. Then it doesn’t matter what a Market you’re shorting.
I think the largest reason for Bitcoin going up is MSTR's continues buys. With our last run of inflation, Bitcoin only started to perform well after inflation had topped.
You are making the assumption that GDP is going to be 3% and it’s not a problem if the 10 year is at 4.5%. What if the revision of GDP comes in lower(which I believe will) and you’re at 4.5% on the 10 year. Same thing. You have a problem. If the Trump admin continues with this charade then I guess it’s not a problem but I believe that the revisions are coming imminently
You can now join our premium TH-cam membership where we share COT charts on Stocks, Crypto and member-only market recap videos.
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Learn more about Jason and the CMR Community at www.crowdedmarketreport.com
You’re the absolute best man, thank you for being generous with your time 🙏
Thank you for sharing all your knowledge ❤
I had problem comprehending trading in general. I tried watching other TH-cam trading channels, but they made the concepts more complicated. I was almost giving up until when i discovered content and explain everything in detail. The videos are easy to Follow❤
I've been making a lot of looses trying to make profit trading. I thought trading on a demo account is just like trading the real market. Can anyone help me out or at least advise me on what to do?
Since meeting Expert Violet Zyaire., I now agree that with an expert managing your portfolio, the rate of profit is high, with less risk….
Violet Zyaire. signals and prediction is awesome actually i was skeptical at first lol, until I decided to try. Its huge returns is awesome! I can't say much.
When I say testimonies all over the place I thought it was all made up stories till I was convinced and gave her a try and honesty I don't regret the move I made because I invested in a big way
please educate me, l've come across this name before, Now i'm interested
I loved your content today. You cover all the major news catalysts, and it was short and sweet.
Thank you Jason! Love your commentaries especially on weird days like this one! (2 index up but one down etc etc)
Thank you Jason - Always appreciate your measured take
Thank you Jason
Great stuff as always. Thanks Jason
Thanks Jason
thanks again jason
Thanks again Jason. Much appreciated.
thanks for this information Jason and you were right about weather today. Boston is sucks right now hahaha
Thanks 👍
Waitting for today's video
Currently in USD / CHF Shorts ,
What do you think Jason ?
Thanks buddy
Bonds - I think the market will start pricing in a pause after this cut and I expect a little hawkish talk following this cut. I think bonds will rally, especially if we get a small equity pullback in the ST. Everyone saying they have no idea why fed is cutting. 1. Labor rolling over and most importantly, there are $1.8 T (with a T) of bonds to reprice next 1.5 -2 years. They are boxed in, 100% have to get rates down. There's not much to discuss in that regard. However, Fed cutting doesn't mean long rates drop, as we've seen rates rise. Bottom line to me, short term I think TLT closes at 100 by year end.
Hey Jason, what's your opinion on the New Zealand Dollar?
Hi Jason, I totally enjoy your analysis. Can you please shed some light on why GER40 is at all times high given the recent government collapse? Is that due to the rate cuts and markets focusing on better times ahead? Thank you!
UNH, #2 in DJIA, weighed heavy also -5%
Thanks Jason- what’s your view on the CPI numbers outside of the YoY and MoM?
@@parwizbashir6797 just look to see actual versus forecast and then market reaction. Helps determine market tone.
Would you short live cattle here anymore?
sweet as usual.
The fed is desperate avoiding a recession by cutting in an environment where stocks are trading at ATH, where inflation is sticky and the economy is robust on paper… they should immediately pause and keep rates here for at least 6 months and see what it does to the system. Gonna be interesting i think they actually do pause next week..
When are they not cutting at all time highs?
@ you usually cut rates when the economy is weakening and therefore the market is below ATH. Cutting cycles usually start a bear market like 2007 or 90s. In some rare occasions rate cuts boost markets a lot but only if a recession can be avoided and a soft landing is achieved which I do not see. I know market rallies can be deceiving and we like strong markets for now, but under the hood things do not look great at all. The latest jobs data is signaling a significant cooling, likely quicker than what the fed wants to see. It’s gonna be interesting 2025. Good luck with your trading / investing
@@waynesnelling8259 it appears to me that the fed is pretty much forced to cut rates as the debt is starting to become to expensive, they need to lower rates in order to pay off debt
Current rate is still killing lot of small businesses . Thats why stocks are trading at ath and mega 7 are doing great?
They won’t stop cutting. Made exactly same mistake in 2007. Same rate cut schedule as back then. Focused to much on inflation and not enough on unemployment. Emergency cuts in Feb. cpi back to 5 in April just like 2008
Thx
Solana did 7% nat gas is for donating to market makers
I agree with you on crude, those are news failures. Of course, I am biased because I am long crude! 😅but I can't see how else to look at a steady grind higher despite news of lack of demand and ample gasoline. The Dow is weighted by the health care companies and those got rocked today, that might have something to do with the Dow failure. Because Nvidia, Salesforce, Apple etc had a good day. Makes a lot of sense to me on bonds but maybe because I agree with this, we're both wrong and we'll get hit with a monkey wrench, but what can you do, that's the market!
I think the Dow has going down simply because of UNH
Hey Jason can you do Cane sugar futures? I showed Nick Timiros a pic of a potential cup and handle and ask him what Jerome “Arthur Burns” plan was if it brokeout. Nick blocked me
I got confused a bit on this video - you said probability of a rate cut went up to 100% but also that it was "a pretty big move up in rates today, especially on the long end"
he explains that right in the video
When the Fed cuts rates it influences the short end not the long end for rates.The long end went up because the Fed’s current rate cutting policy while risk assets are at all time highs (due to the system being full of liquidity) is considered to be inflationary- long end rates went up to discount future inflation. The market’s expectation of a rate cut in Dec went up to 100% - however they haven’t factored in the possibility of a rate pause.
@@donragnar8430 thank you, that's the explanation I was looking for !! long end vs short end of rates
Dear Jason, Thank you for the great educational video, Please keep it coming. shalom
Feel like market gonna top or correct around March because transportation sector is very toppy and weak.
I think the same
🔥
Returning to my profession after a long break is taking my attention away from financial markets. That is a problem! Can you please make a video offering tips and advice for speculators who are trying to strike a balance. Ideally, I could focus 100% on trading and investing.
Keywords: work-life balance, work-life harmony :)
You were wrong on the best performing asset of the day Jason, it was actually Fartcoin.
Japan inflation rate beat expectations. Yen rallied then failed
How much is bitcoins increase due to other countries (outside the USA) trying to get money out? You mentioned Canada, they’ve limited how much Bitcoin you can buy. Is this part of the reason for bitcoins growth.
Up we go. Recessions are not allowed in 2024. Fed will not allow it.
capital gains tax is a big item in federal government tax receipts, Fed will strive keeping market going up
@@ElementaryWatson-123 This is why I will be getting loans against my bitcoin. Not paying those taxes.
Thank you. Interesting.
What do you think about S&P500? Small traders have heavy long positions, while large traders and commercial hedgers are shorting.
@@rofsjan until it’s max crowded, not sure if means much.
Corn and beans?
Not sure why people think rate cut next week is a done deal. Core month over month hasn’t budged since August. Some commodities are going up, employment seems to be weakening and the FOMC is going to cut? Big mistake imo
Foolishly burned into their ammunition.
Is it possible the government/FED would "scare the markets" in order to refinance all this debt at lower interest? It would be pretty bad if they have to refinance trillions at 4% in 2025.
👌🏻👌🏻👌🏻👌🏻
Fed is cutting bc the next admin is planning to slash spending like a gnr guitarist 🎸
CPI at 2.7 Core at 3.3 ... Bitcoin Meme-Stocks and Stocks on ATH.. an they cut rates.. the funny money Fed
Everyone is Long. Even the busdriver wants to Buy tech and btc. With Signal short … my opinión. At least a bigger correction
Dont short a bull market. Even the poxy bus driver knows that.
@ actually You Can do when it’s a Part of your Edge. The better question would be: what is the time horizon? What’s the stop and when it’s not longer a part of your pre defined setup. Then it doesn’t matter what a
Market you’re shorting.
Contrarian view for you. Deflation is coming soon and they will not stop it till the next bank fails
I think the largest reason for Bitcoin going up is MSTR's continues buys. With our last run of inflation, Bitcoin only started to perform well after inflation had topped.
Dxy down, Nations buying, etfs record inflows. Thats why.
@eoinocnaimhsi2598 ETF flows are nothing compared to what MSTR has been buying and nation-states? What El Salvador? That's negligible
He hates that he has to even reference Bitcoin. Buy smart, buy btc, retire 😉
I got wrecked
You sure have a good group of fake positive reviewers
Jason you say Liquidily instead of liquidity
"Liquililly"
More buyers then sellers and more sellers than buyers. Don’t be dumb
You are making the assumption that GDP is going to be 3% and it’s not a problem if the 10 year is at 4.5%. What if the revision of GDP comes in lower(which I believe will) and you’re at 4.5% on the 10 year. Same thing. You have a problem. If the Trump admin continues with this charade then I guess it’s not a problem but I believe that the revisions are coming imminently