Chance to pull Black Lotus | Magic's 30th Anniversary
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ต.ค. 2024
- The odds of pulling a Black Lotus varies with how much product you buy. But I encourage you to not purchase this product, as it is NOT tournament legal.
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For only 24000+ dollars you might get a black lotus proxy. Such a great deal...way to got wizards.
Yeah, once I heard it was not even legal I kinda scratched my head and said ....nope because of the price to why ratio.
Almost cheaper to just buy the real deal
@@brandyourfan9244 or buy fan made proxys
@@sythia853 Oh yeah. Paying that much for a card is stupid, imo
Id rather just buy a black car
You could use that $26,000 and just buy a real Alpha Lotus
@@hmroid6884 hell, might as well give the property to either TOMY (Who has the license to Duel Masters) or Bushiroad at that point like jeez. Tbh if there’s any good American distributors, tell me.
You ain't buying no alpha black lotus for 26k
That's a lot of money to spend on a proxy that you can just print yourself.
There’s a 100% chance I can print one though myself. Play the odds people.
U cant get it graded tho
BTW 96 packs are 24000 USD.
That means you can buy 2 Legal Black Lotuses and have 2000 dolars left over instead of gambling on a fake one....
But it's not a real one...
There's a 0% chance that black lotus being real or playable. You forgot that part
Sold my house for this chance. Will rebuild my house with the boxes
Probably superior to the average drywall building
Tbh, I am still asking myself ... why are people ready to pay 4 packs at $1000 for proxys....
So you kinda got the numbers wrong here.
Ill make the assumption the 1.05% per pack number is correct.
This means there is a 98.95% of not getting a lotus.
In 4 packs, this means there is a 95.87% chance you WON'T get a lotus (1-1.05%)^4
The chance you get a lotus is 1-chance to not get a lotus, or 4.13% (slightly Less than you suggested) I'm not even sure where you got the 4.15% figure.
While yes on average you would pull one lotus per 95.24 packs (round to 96 seems reasonable)
It does not mean in any situation, that you have to open 96 packs to get a lotus.
If you opened up exactly 96 packs, and they had a 1.05% chance to get a lotus in each pack, your odds of having a lotus in your hand, after opening 96 packs, is only 63.7% which is slightly better than a coin toss,
In order to have a 75% chance at getting just a single black lotus, it would take, on average, 131 packs.
In order to have a 90% chance at getting a black lotus, it would take, on average, 218 packs
So that means that if you opened 218 packs, there is a 10% chance you still would not have a lotus in your hands, despite having a plethera of other, insanely powerful cards
Correction - you would actually have not a single powerful card, you'd just have tournament illegal proxies.
But on the bright side you merely need to open 66 packs to have a better than a coin flip chance to score that sweet sweet worthless black lotus proxy.
He’s not wrong though. On average (in expectation) you’d get 1 black lotus every 96 packs.
This is not the same as saying you’d guaranteed get one.
@@LimpyLegolasyou’re misinterpreting what they’re saying. They are talking about average outcomes given a certain sample size, not anything about past outcomes affecting future ones.
this is why magic player get bullied.
And only 100% chance to lose all your money
i still cant believe wotc didnt just print a ton of these so all the players could enjoy them *so messed up*
This is not how math works
Its not a black lotus. Id rather buy a blacker lotus, an i hate unsets, but at least the back of the card witch makes it a magic card is right
So you're telling me there's a chance!
For only $24,000😳
Don't buy the magic 30 packs, wizards specifically said the ultra rare cards are proxies. Don't pay to have your money torn to pieces, proxy them for way cheaper from a better card distributor and save some money and have fun
A chance for a non-tournament legal proxy BL, yes.
So 24k (not including taxes) for a chance to get a fake black lotus or 2 legal black lotuses. This seems like a pretty cut and dry case here. Including taxes, you can probably make a deck with these cards and throwing in some extra.
I just bought an Underground Sea Revised for $500 , thought it was better .
Because that's how percentage works lol
It's not, see my other comment
The power creep is at the level where the reserved list is starting to look like a bunch of commons that should be widely available just so everything’s fair. What do you think?
Reserve list has never been “powerful” the list was created to appease to collectors. There isnt a single overpowered playable card on the reserve list.
@@DanMarik A dual land that enters untapped is pretty powerful so are 0 caster’s that produce manna. And let’s not forget timetwister
@@NatureLiving0 You are actually absolutely right. Personally I build my decks in a way that most dual lands come into play untapped the only thing missing is the land types. Also Timetwister has already been outpaced. Anything that lets you discard your hand and maintain a graveyard while also drawing a full grip is better than losing access to your grave. But then again im a grave player. If id like anything to be reprinted its the true duals.
@@DanMarik Sorry i had a blonde moment. I didn’t mean time twister’ i meant time-shift. They’ve made it a very hard game to be good at because of the prices/ And what you can get for what price. I like all sorts of cards’ And strategy. Jodah Archmage really sparked my love for the game. Then Jodah grand unifier killed it. Arch mage is about earning your stripes. Grand unifier is just free b.s. and buff if you got allot of legendaries$$$. And that’s how i see all games and consumer media are going, table top, digital or other consumables. Charge more make more and give less. This is why I love Jesus because he was nice enough to show me all his side projects. The bad guy’s are about to loose. I feel it. Bless you. Have a good one.
@@NatureLiving0 You are fine i dont know of “Time-shift”. When it comes to decks I really dont have a problem. I literally pick a theme then try a commander no one really plays.
IE my Extus Deck which utilizes Adventure cards. Yea i have 5k deck (Meren) but i have alot more fun playing 100-200 dollar decks. Jodah Unifier in my honest opinion is weaker than Jodah archmage.
1. Jodah Unifier forces your deck into a clear path. Archmage gives you freedom (ive seen big dumb spells and eldrazi and super friends)
2. Unifier is the glue of the deck. (meaning he draws removal)
3. Archmage is easier to rebuild after a wipe.
There is power creep in that they are making too much synergy. (cards used to just operate in themselves and combos were rare) The reserve list doesnt really help or hurt that.
Hasbro making wotc scam us in the most heinous way..
That's not how probability works...
You could open a thousand packs and you are still not guaranteed any particular card.
After a thousand packs you have an extremely good chance that you have pulled a Black Lotus, but it's still not 100%.
Hi commenter from a year ago, it’s about 64% to get at least one in 96 packs. That’s all, carry on.
I can't believe Wizards would create a product like this, it's downright disrespectful towards the players. Please someone explain to me what the point is. The cards aren't legal in tournaments. They are just proxies, overpriced proxies made for one reason, to make money. I mean I wouldn't mind it if it was cheap, I mean there has to be a limit to how much you can charge for proxies right? For god's sake Wizards, please have at least some respect for your players. As if it wasn't bad enough, for all the money you pay you don't even get all the cards, it's a booster box. I thought the whole point of cracking packs was to get that feeling of "wow, I pulled an expensive, cool or interesting card. What were they thinking? It's the worst MTG product ever made, nothing compares. I mean I thought secret lairs were going a bit far when it came to the prize, but still those are real cards, this is a whole new level of rip off. Please don't buy this pile of pirated copied pieces of cardboard. It should be illegal to make something so disgusting and have the audacity to treat the MTG community like idiots.
I honestly think that all the big card games secretly got together and went “Hey lets see who can fuck our fanbase the hardest” and yugioh went “yeah let’s short print stuff,Rarity bump everything and make stuff unplayable with our erratas” then Pokémon came up and went “nah let’s make pulling boxes and packs absolutely awful,let’s give them formats that are ran into the ground with 1-2 decks anddddd for good measures let’s also make cards not as expensive as you guys buy instead really fucking hard to get/trade for” and then Magic laughed and went “Nah let’s light our 30th year anniversary so hard into the ground that even our company stocks fucking tank, like let’s start off with 1000$ booster packs that contain only proxies! And let’s make it so that our secret lair for it you can only get the foils you want by absolute fucking random chance”
you can also just buy an actual lotus
That's not how percentages in statistics work. This is similar to a gambler's fallacy. Your odds of winning do not go up because you play more
There is 0% chance you will pull a REAL black Lotus.
Btw the percentage doesn’t increase, it always stays at 1%.
Or..... and hear me out here you can just print one out on your computer and it would be just as good as the one you spent 24k trying to get from those packs
>prints my own with custom art
“On average” is such a misleading phrase when reporting statistics, because “average” is just any of several different measures of central tendency. Assuming that 1.05% is exact, it’s about a 64% chance to get at least one in 96 picks.
(1-0.0105)^96 ≈ 0.363 (chance to not get one), so 1 - 0.363 = 0.637 ≈ 64%.
Im sorry to inform you, but that inference is incorrect from a statistical point of view. Since the events are independent, meaning the pulls from one box do NOT interfere in the pulls of the other boxes, the chances of getting a black lotus is still the same, therefore, 1.05% for each of those packs. Nonetheless, opening 96 packs does not guarantee you a black lotus, you are just repeating the chance of 1.05% 96 times.
Incorrect.
There is a 0.00% of pulling a Black Lotus from Magic Anniversary.
I heard you can pull a proxy of the card though.
Actually your chances are more like 63.7% to get at least 1. Got to love binomial distributions. But yes EV is 1 in 96 packs
no the odds are always 1.05%. No matter how many booster packs u buy the odds are always gonna be 1.05%
4k $ proxy lmao no thanks I can make a better one for 2cents.
Too bad it’s not legal to play. They should have at least kept printing it since by not printing more led to even more scarcity.
That's not quite how it works. The probabilities are independent from eachother.
Just buy an OG Black Lotus and write 30th Anniversary on it. I dont see what the big deal is.
Or you could spend 2-3 dollars and get an equally convincing fake🤷
Except your still wouldn’t get a black lotus because what you actually have is a proxy black lotus
it's worthless tbh I can't use it any format not even historic or vintage then what's the point.
Just saying just because you buy 96 packs packs doesn't mean it's guaranteed every pack could not have a lotus because 1.05 % doesn't mean if you buy enough to get 100% that you'll get it lmao
He phrased it poorly for sure, but he did say “on average,” which depending on what kind of average you’re talking about could be true. It’s roughly a 64% chance to get at least one 1.05% outcome in 96 tries.
30th Anniversary cards aren't tournament legal.
Hahaha it would be awesome if they weren’t PROXIES
I’d rather buy a Lotus sports car…
Swap the back and your good to go
me *was trying for infinite years to pull this* now that the rarity goes down *emotional damage*
The old ones are still extremely valuable, and the new ones are not legal in tournament play
This is even more of a scam than usual. Screw Wizards.
You could open 1000 packs and still not pull one.
And it'll be worth $30 😂
Or, go print out a high quality proxy for about $2
wizards greedy cash grabbing is getting old
I can print a 100 of them for a fraction of ghe price.
What's funny is that for the price of a pack you can just buy the real version of the card instead of gambling for a proxy. I feel bad for the people who got literal junk from those 30th anniversary packs
So if you want to open a proxy black lotus that cost over 1000$ per pack you might need to pay 9600$ at to maybe get one.
Or just use the printer/ go to a printshop and pay close to nothing.
Btw proxies are officialy legal! Wizzards aprove, as long you pay 1000$...
(Btw noone will find out if you printed those cards yourself)
At that point just buy the power 9......or use that money for a down-payment for a house. College debt. Buy a food truck. Buy out the world's supply of Pack Rats. Literally anything other than Buy 30th.
Actually the percentage of the chance never changes to be honest, it is a 1.05% chance no matter how many boxes you open. The odds are the odds based on the number of proxies made over the entirety of the cards printed
See but that would involve opening this set
In statistics *most* things 5% or less are considered improbably and won’t happen
The exception being human life, where they can go down to 1% or less
No its 1% chance always they don't stack
But what is the chances of getting 2!?!?!?
Hell I kind of regret even going to the magic 30 event with how poorly it ran. I wouldn't buy those packs if I was rich even
DONT spend your money on an overpriced proxy
I don't think anyone wants it to be real...
If you want a specific card, buy the single.
Y-yea…still not an actual Lotus but okay
You be wasting your money also dont do it
That's not how probability works..
1.05*4 = 4.2% chance wowza
just draw on a piece of paper bro
... and then it's not even real 😂
If you have $1000 to spend and you spend it on this product, please contact me about a bridge in Brooklyn you may also find interesting.
T
hats not how odds work.
That corporate boot must taste good if you are buying any packs from this greedy company
4.13 actually 🤓
A black lotus PROXY...
Thats not how statistics work.
*Black Lotus proxy
24 k for maybe get that
Aaah the 30th anniversary for proxies that cost $1,000 lmao. Imagien
And be broke
Don't buy this trash
Your math is wrong
#HASBRODESTROYSMTG
This boutta be another 2018 Nets but WAY better
Well, a proxy of Black Lotus that is.
That is a "Slim" chance! And the Retro borders are 1 in 4 of the regulars I beleive? Have a Phantasmal weekend. 🤘🦁🤘
Hehe printer go brr, ill get as many as i want
Thats not how probability works
Shoulda put "not financial advice" 🤣
Las Vegas loves this guy.
A ton of work for a proxy
Thanks for making me feel better
Don’t trust him
This product seems to get worse and worse the more you look into it, and it’s face value was already awful.
You say that but I bought 2 x boxes and pulled one.
That's not how odds work at all...
Or.. you could just write "Black lotus" on a plains and call it a proxy. Whichever.