Why are you using the binomial distribution? If you're trying to calculate the chance of ending up with the pet by 99, you want to calculate the chance of rolling it *at least* once, not *exactly* once...
you can calculate the chance of atleast once with the binomial expansion, for example to work out the chance of getting it atleast once you would work out 1 - (chance of not getting it)
@@chilledvibes99 ... So you said the wrong thing but did the correct calculation. The calculation you gave is the geometric cdf; ie let x be the odds of never getting the pet, then the odds of getting the pet are 1 - x. However, the binomial distribution's pdf only gives the odds of getting EXACTLY one pet.
well.....both odds are under the topic of "binomial distribution". As a math major in college, I can say that theoatrix sounds like a douchebag whenever he says it in all of his videos.
Pretty sure you've gone wrong somewhere in the rate for gem mining at the very least. The rate of getting 1 or more pets in 13mil xp at only level 50 is about 0.604. Incase you are wondering the calculation with prospector: Chance per rock at level 50: 211886-(25*50)=210636 Rocks for 13mil xp: 13000000/(65*1.025)=195122 Chance of 0 pets in 13mil xp: (210635/210636)^195122=0.396 Chance of >0 pets is therefore 0.604.
Idk if anyone already pointed this but the phoenix is not 10% to 99. He assumed 1 roll per game when, in fact, you have a minimum of 2 rolls per successful 500 point games. Assuming 620 games to 99 at minimum rolls, thats 1240/5000 chance or 24.8% to get the pet. You can also easily get 3 rolls per game by fletching, making it 1860/5000 or 37.2% to get the pet. I got mine at 93 fm from a 500ish point game.
Wow, I am quite the noob, and I got the thieving pet when I was doing fruit stalls at around 35 thieving. I love my Rocky, and now I appreciate him even more :D
got this pet a few days ago, it's the first pet of my account and have got it on the first fruit stall i tried out (at 30 thieving) ... my reaction was epic and empty at the same time ..
Very rare. It's technically a boss pet so you don't get improved drop rates past 99 fm. The rolls per xp gained are also linear because most points are from burning kindling/logs unless you're really lucky with breaks in the brazier; so if you're getting more rolls per crate you're most likely levelling up faster, needing less KC to get 99. I got 99 in around 570 KC, which compared to 600-620 KC is around 4 hours faster than the average 99 KC of 600-620. Basically, the more rolls you're getting, the less crates you'll get to 99 because you'll need less KC to max. Which pretty much evens out on pet RNG. There's a few people with 200m fm experience and don't have phoenix yet. You can also just look up the data itself, compare pets vs 99s in skills. You'll see that the number of pets for said skills will double to quadruple the amount of players with a 99 in the skill. But firemaking is different, 2.6x more people have 99 fm than phoenixs are in game. Statistically and literally speaking the phoenix is the rarest skilling pet in the game.
Konspicuous Kalameet you can’t accurately compare pheonix to other pets because you can’t earn pheonix by simply lighting logs, it has to be done through wintertodt. Plus Tangleroot seems just as rare based on outdated pet numbers compared to 99s in farming.
@@mrnoname6047 idk what you're trying to say, the first thing I said was literally "It's a boss pet". I also have 99 fm and a phoenix so I know exactly what I'm talking about.
The rarity is exaggerated massively because 1-99 is a terrible unit to measure this in, fm is 5x as fast to train than most other skills, if you spend the same ammount of time doing wt as you do on another skill. Your more likely to get the fm pet over the other
Earlier today my text box said this: You examine the tree for signs of disease and find that it is in perfect health You have a funny feeling your being followed Congratulations, You’ve just advanced your farming level. You are now level 66 You pick a papaya fruit You pick a papaya fruit
Mining pet at lv 52, Farming pet at lv 72, Thieving pet at lv 88 No fishing pet yet (lv 91), agility pet (lv 88) and also no firemaking pet (15m xp) yet :( I still think my RNG was pretty good, especially on Tangleroot
I got the farming pet in the first 2 weeks after the update. I was 74 farming at the time, but had only done around 12 tree runs where it was possible to get the pet.
Hope you learnt something interesting, maybe you can choose a skill to get to 99 based on the chance at a pet 😋 - Shameless plug of a new free tool I've been working on - osrstips.com/ New Tips being added all the time 👻
Seems like Phoenix was calculated wrong here. It’s 1/5000, but you get minimum 2 drops per kill, possibly 3 or 4, so should be somewhere between 24-30%
diface not saying he didn’t know what he’s talking about, just a correction on something he might have missed. Its not like he did something stupid like being a sarcastic bitch on a year old comment that he misunderstood, I’d make fun of someone for a screw up like that.
Three days ago I saw a combat level 22 who was not a pure run past me with the Agility pet. Considering he wasn't in graceful, there's a damn good chance he got it within his first 20 Agility levels. Blew my mind that someone could be that lucky.
I watched this video a few weeks ago, but I just came back to rewatch it as I just my first pet and wanted to know the chances of getting it again. I got rock golem at 71 mining in the Motherlode Mine, which I take it is rather lucky. I always thought my first pet would be the farming pet, as I have 95 farming, much higher than my next highest stat.
Ova Note You didn’t nobody with a functioning brain would miss click that and then allow the action to follow through before interrupting such a long run to chop a tree
Which he didn't do and so his numbers are wrong. He just calculated the chance to get exactly 1 pet... Embellishing his research with university level papers as if this stuff is anything higher than what a 17-18 year old might come across at school. I'm amazed at how few people in the comments haven't realized this glaringly obvious error.
say you catch 100 fish from 1-99 and there's a 1% chance for a pet with each catch. The probability you get 0 pets is 0.99^100 = 0.366 so the probability of getting a pet is 63.4%. if e.g. you catch 50 of fish A and 50 of fish B, you just multiply the probabilities of getting 0 pets doing both. No need for creating combined distributions as described. I haven't checked his results but from how overcomplicated his method sounds, they are probably wrong. If he calculated the probability of getting exactly 1 pet, his figures could be off by as much as 10%
A quick and dirty example using the beaver (I'm using his numbers as an approximation so I'm not 100% certain of the validity). From 35-99 he says you'll chop over 150 thousand teak trees, each having a probability of 1 in 264,336 of dropping the beaver. The chance that you get the beaver is therefore 1 (the total set, i.e., the probability that 'anything' happens) minus the probability that you don't get the beaver on every single roll, which is 264,335 out of 264,336 occurring 150,000 times. Mathematically, this is... 1 - (264,335 / 264,336)^150,000 = 0.433037 A (very accurate) approximation can also be yielded from the limit of the geometric distribution by taking the ratio of the trials vs the expected drop rate... 1 - e^(-150,000 / 264,336) = 0.433036 Both of these are very far off from the provided answer of 0.3257 EDIT: The original had a mistake in the limit calculation, I forgot the 1 - part which gave a terrible answer.
exactly this lol, if the odds of rc pet are 1/800k for each essence when crafting bloods, just take (799,999/800,000)^(# essence to 99) and subtract from one lmao
So my main goal in osrs is getting quest cape, right? I am at 248 quest points as of the time of me typing this. I still needed to do some of the Kourend quests such as Forsaken Tower, which required 20% Lovakengj favor. So I go with my cousin (who has been doing all the quests with me) to mine volcanic sulfur for like an hour. I was at around 18.9% favor when I saw the red text in the chat box. That's right, I got rock golem while getting Lovakengj favor. It was bittersweet because I hated mining, but what made it even more bittersweet was the drop rate. I looked it up soon after only to find that it was a 1/710,000 chance to get it from volcanic sulfur! Was only 66 mining at the time. All my luck is gone for life, I am sure. Clan chat went nuts. Overall pretty happy about it despite being my least favorite skill. And hey, for a first pet, rock golem is pretty sweet!
The wintertood calculation is wrong due to multiple rolls per game. I think it's right if you don't fletch. Farming is partially wrong too since many people also do hardwood and seaweed
Formula is pretty easy. You just count possibility of not getting it untill 99 and subtract it from 1. so: 1 - (1-base_rate)^actions_required to count every possibilty. Ie beaver with teaks (you need to chop 153 083 teaks from 35 to 99) : 1 - ( 1 - 1/264336 ) ^ 153083 = approx 0.4396
Not to sound like a smart-ass, but there is a better way to find probabilities than finding the variance... The chances of not getting the pet after x tries is (prob failure)^(x). Bump that probability to whatever power you want, then take 1 - 'that' to find your chance of getting it. No variances needed.
Your Herbiboar calculation is wrong, with 4400 kc you'd have an approximate chance of 49.2%. You can calculate it using geometric distribution: sum (1/6500*(1-1/6500)^(n-1), n = 1 to 4400)
its funny that at the end, the slower skills give more chance at the pet because they take longer to get to 99. ex. runecrafting, mining, and the quick skills give a low chance like firemaking etc. But that's not because it's rarer, just because it's quicker to 99
Wow I’m 2k total as of yesterday and I’ve had loads of pets now lol; got farming, thieving, woodcutting, daggannoth prime and chaos ele currently 3.2K kc dry of zulrah pet tho :/
Yep, theo has calculated the chance of rolling the pet exactly once, but he should have calculated the chance of rolling it at least once. That is, he's not accounted for all the times where you get the pet and then get the "funny feeling like you would have been followed" afterwards. As a result, all his probabilities are significantly lower than they should be. (In fact, it's much easier to calculate the correct number - you don't need to faff around with binomial distributions, just calculate the chance of not getting the pet from 1-99, and then subtract it from 1.)
the only reason why the chance at the farming pet is higher doing herb runs is because it's lower xp so it takes longer to get to 99, so saying make sure to do your herb runs isn't necessarily correct
Chance-wise for the fishing pet, Its actually fastest to do karambwans (outside of tick manipulation methods). For them its something like 1/170k chance of getting, but you fish them very quickly and they only give 50 xp each. If you go to 99 on them you're doing 250k of them from 65 fishing, so you're very likely to get it.
I'm calling BS on Wintertodt pet. 1/5000 per ROLL - two rolls minimum at 500 gives 1/2500 Rolling 620 to 99 crates at 500 points gives a 620/2500 chance... 24.8 % chance? Also you may get 750...1000...1500 points a game sometimes which makes it closer to 30% chance. How did you get 10%???
Anything statistical/probabilistic above 30 repetition can be approximated with Gaussian Normal Law, binomial resumes to a Gaussian at high repetition.
True, but that's complete overkill in this situation. Let X denote the random variable of the number of times you roll the pet by level 99. We want to calculate P(X > 0), which is just 1 - P(X = 0). While X does (roughly) follow a binomial distribution, say X ~ B(n,p), it's straightforward to calculate P(X=0): it's just (1-p)^n. Approximating X by a normal distribution would only lead to a more involved computation. It seems that Theo had confused himself and was working out P(X = 1). For this, the central limit theorem would indeed be helpful, but this is an irrelevant calculation.
Good video, however I don't see where you get a lot of the maths from. For example; Herbiboar 1/6,500 chance to recieve the pet 4,400 required for 80-99 Yet you have that written as a 34.40% chance for the pet, 67.69% is what I calculated. Besides that, enjoy the videos, keep up the good work Theo!
I have received 2 Skilling pets thus far; at 93 RC I got the RC pet(Blood runes from 77), and at 87 WC I received the Beaver pet (while cutting yews from 60). From 62-99 Fishing, I did monkfish and didn't receive the pet, however.
Did you use Excl? or did you do it all on paper? I think your calculations are accurate, but I was wondering if I could see an Excl spreadsheet on it. You know... so I can see your calculations. (I have had statistics too :p).
It shouldn't be too big of a task to re-use the calculations and calculate the drop rate of... specifically... Vorki pet... right? I want to know... really really do.. maybe the chance of it in 2k kills.
Dude Iove your content and love the knowledge but how hard is it to get B-roll of the diffrent skills?? It seems weird to talk about tree while catching chins lol
Link to the math is broken. Was wondering why you used binomial rather than geometric probabilities although they'd probably come out the same if you did it right.
I got a beaver on my UIM at 66 wc cutting a maple with a steel axe. Its like he saw me trying so hard on that single maple log for a bow and wanted to help ROFL
I got the beaver at lvl 33 Woodcutting from an Oak tree. Funny thing is, I didn't even know what pet's were at the time. I had just gotten back into Runescape. So you can imagine how freakin confused I was when this beaver hopped down and started following me. I had no idea how lucky I was till people started freaking out that I had the beaver. Apparently being an Ironman skiller with a pet at such a low lvl get's people riled up...
?? This is high school level probability, and he's botched it completely. Binomial distribution is inappropriate here, and it's resulted in his numbers being way, way lower than they should be. e.g. phoenix chance is ~20% and herbiboar is ~49%.
I have a math problem that I would like someone else to do. In the GWD, what is the odds of getting a hilt, followed by shards 1, 2, and 3 from minions in just 1 round?
Theo, How did you even calculate the rc pet drop rates for blood and soul runes when Jagex has not commented on whether or not the drop rate is rolled per dark essence block or per dark essence fragment? People asked Mod Kieren to clarify this, and he gave no response. There has been no official statement since, so the rc pet rates for blood/soul runes are pure speculation
well most players play through a client like OSBuddy which actively records every xp gain and drop chance, so they can look at "the average player used 2Mil essence to get to here, thus we can assume the drop-rate is near 1/2000000, meaning if it takes x essence to get from x to x thus it is..." We already know the droprates from other rune altars anyways, between testing and Jagex telling us, and with a lot of the pet chances in crafting the % chance from when you can first farm them to 99 is about the same chance (although that means the drop rate goes up since you are using less essence because of increased xp). Jagex likes to keep things simple and pretty much in-line.
I dont think you know how blood/soul runecrafting works. Either that or you responded to the wrong comment. Your response has nothing to do with what I asked
![일상 속 기분 좋음 [Proto disco meme]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/DwmEIaZ7XGQ/mqdefault.jpg)
One of my buddies inadvertently banked the Beaver at some point and complained about not having one for a while before accidentally finding it.
2195 total, my goal is to max without getting a pet, so far so good.
Jerex did u get one lol
thought i was bad being at 1800 w.o one
40 mining and pet
232m total xp atm 2106 total no pets rofl i'm in this with you mate
Update?
I once met a guy who got his agility squirrel on his first ever agility action, and he left his agility right where it was at as proof
"Congratulations on learning how to jump, here's your complementary squirrel."
Ugh I'd cry If I had to play with no graceful and low agility
Well it's 50/50 right ?? you either get it or you don't
the chance that you don't isn't the same size as the chance that you will, so no.
its a joke...
John Doe - With a name like John Doe it’s no surprise you didn’t get the joke
You must be fun at parties
Bennie kwaka you would most likely get it if you got 200m lol
Holy shit, when I got my Phoenix I was super happy but I thought it was the most common pet to drop, I appreciate it a lot more now :o
Why are you using the binomial distribution? If you're trying to calculate the chance of ending up with the pet by 99, you want to calculate the chance of rolling it *at least* once, not *exactly* once...
you can calculate the chance of atleast once with the binomial expansion, for example to work out the chance of getting it atleast once you would work out 1 - (chance of not getting it)
binomcdf
He wanted to prop himself up by saying he studied a research paper. He ain’t do shit for simply probability
@@chilledvibes99 ... So you said the wrong thing but did the correct calculation. The calculation you gave is the geometric cdf; ie let x be the odds of never getting the pet, then the odds of getting the pet are 1 - x. However, the binomial distribution's pdf only gives the odds of getting EXACTLY one pet.
well.....both odds are under the topic of "binomial distribution". As a math major in college, I can say that theoatrix sounds like a douchebag whenever he says it in all of his videos.
Its crazy that the phoenix is that rare because you see that damn bird everywhere.
For real
I got it on 9 kc lol
Haven't done the math or anything but it takes roughly 470 WTD runs to get 99, so no idea how it's a 1/10 chance if on average u need 600
@@sleepeasy-relax-asmr8081 no idea who said it was a 1/10 chance?
@@bheidzify he said 10% lol
I fished monkfish to 99 fishing and got no heron feelsbadman
Pretty sure you've gone wrong somewhere in the rate for gem mining at the very least. The rate of getting 1 or more pets in 13mil xp at only level 50 is about 0.604.
Incase you are wondering the calculation with prospector:
Chance per rock at level 50: 211886-(25*50)=210636
Rocks for 13mil xp: 13000000/(65*1.025)=195122
Chance of 0 pets in 13mil xp: (210635/210636)^195122=0.396
Chance of >0 pets is therefore 0.604.
60% :o that seems very high
Just updated comment feel free to check. The method is very good.
Theoatrix OSRS you cant do math :)
Idk if anyone already pointed this but the phoenix is not 10% to 99. He assumed 1 roll per game when, in fact, you have a minimum of 2 rolls per successful 500 point games. Assuming 620 games to 99 at minimum rolls, thats 1240/5000 chance or 24.8% to get the pet. You can also easily get 3 rolls per game by fletching, making it 1860/5000 or 37.2% to get the pet. I got mine at 93 fm from a 500ish point game.
Wow, I am quite the noob, and I got the thieving pet when I was doing fruit stalls at around 35 thieving. I love my Rocky, and now I appreciate him even more :D
Thats literally just happen to me at 47 thieving haha
I got rocky 100k thieving xp away from 99, I genuinely thought I wasn't gonna get the pet.
I just got Rocky at level 45 stealing from fruitstall - i guess i am lucky af.
That happened to me with beaver. 100k from 99 wc I got beaver. I didn't get rocky by 99 though =(
@@simonagerskovpedersen8538 i got it from cakestall before lvl 30, i had no idea how rare pets even was back then.
@@simonagerskovpedersen8538 got him at 31 :)
got this pet a few days ago, it's the first pet of my account and have got it on the first fruit stall i tried out (at 30 thieving) ... my reaction was epic and empty at the same time ..
Pretty sure every game of todt counts as at least 2, if not 3 rolls, so pretty sure Phoenix droprate should be ~25%
this guys vids are a joke he pulls these numbers from his ass watch any other skilling pet video
yeah, he's totally wrong it's a 26-30% chance
dude the amount of work you put into these videos are incredible keep up the good work my g. you're awesome seriously!
His math is completely wrong
Someone didn't account for the multiple rolls you get at WT I see. There's no way the Phoenix is the most rare lmao.
Very rare. It's technically a boss pet so you don't get improved drop rates past 99 fm. The rolls per xp gained are also linear because most points are from burning kindling/logs unless you're really lucky with breaks in the brazier; so if you're getting more rolls per crate you're most likely levelling up faster, needing less KC to get 99. I got 99 in around 570 KC, which compared to 600-620 KC is around 4 hours faster than the average 99 KC of 600-620. Basically, the more rolls you're getting, the less crates you'll get to 99 because you'll need less KC to max. Which pretty much evens out on pet RNG. There's a few people with 200m fm experience and don't have phoenix yet.
You can also just look up the data itself, compare pets vs 99s in skills. You'll see that the number of pets for said skills will double to quadruple the amount of players with a 99 in the skill. But firemaking is different, 2.6x more people have 99 fm than phoenixs are in game. Statistically and literally speaking the phoenix is the rarest skilling pet in the game.
Konspicuous Kalameet you can’t accurately compare pheonix to other pets because you can’t earn pheonix by simply lighting logs, it has to be done through wintertodt. Plus Tangleroot seems just as rare based on outdated pet numbers compared to 99s in farming.
@@mrnoname6047 idk what you're trying to say, the first thing I said was literally "It's a boss pet". I also have 99 fm and a phoenix so I know exactly what I'm talking about.
You are correct. He accounted for 1 roll per loot crate. The prob for 2 rolls per loot crate (this is the minimum) would be 20.16%
The rarity is exaggerated massively because 1-99 is a terrible unit to measure this in, fm is 5x as fast to train than most other skills, if you spend the same ammount of time doing wt as you do on another skill. Your more likely to get the fm pet over the other
When you have tangleroot and realize how rare it is. Feelsgoodman
Reeee
damn it feels so good
Got mine at lvl 51 farming lmao
@@ballzincider5365 i got mine at 45 from the hops patch south of the champion's guild
I got 3... lvl 91,93 and last one between 93-15m xp. Never realized I got a third one till I checked out coll log.... still my only pet.....
Earlier today my text box said this:
You examine the tree for signs of disease and find that it is in perfect health
You have a funny feeling your being followed
Congratulations, You’ve just advanced your farming level. You are now level 66
You pick a papaya fruit
You pick a papaya fruit
Love your clan chat man!!!! it's so peacefull, helpful to be in. thanks for the vids!
Mining pet at lv 52, Farming pet at lv 72, Thieving pet at lv 88
No fishing pet yet (lv 91), agility pet (lv 88) and also no firemaking pet (15m xp) yet :(
I still think my RNG was pretty good, especially on Tangleroot
Rick 'RlCK' fuck you lol
90 farming still no pet, only pet i have is thieving i got at 35
@@tylerglenn4635 97 farming the only pet i have is agility.
I got it around 70 agility on seers course.
26.5m farming xp, no tangleroot, kill me
Diesel Jr very litle farming done and got it at lvl 55 :p
Farming pet is rare, 26m isnt that high to go “dry”
people have gone 200m without the pet
Diesel Jr I know that feeling.
I'm 24m xp no luck yet.
mixnflix101 amen bro, stay strong
I got the farming pet in the first 2 weeks after the update. I was 74 farming at the time, but had only done around 12 tree runs where it was possible to get the pet.
Nice. I got my Soul Wars pet at the 13th box. Everything is possible :D
Just got my farming pet today. 68 farming
I'm over 99 farming and still hunting this pet lol. this game is so much fun!!!!!!111!1!11
Hope you learnt something interesting, maybe you can choose a skill to get to 99 based on the chance at a pet 😋
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New Tips being added all the time 👻
Seems like Phoenix was calculated wrong here. It’s 1/5000, but you get minimum 2 drops per kill, possibly 3 or 4, so should be somewhere between 24-30%
Yes Mr Theoatrix should do more research before giving us misinformation . Makes you wonder if he's ever done wintertodt at all🙄
diface not saying he didn’t know what he’s talking about, just a correction on something he might have missed. Its not like he did something stupid like being a sarcastic bitch on a year old comment that he misunderstood, I’d make fun of someone for a screw up like that.
I was already mad enough at getting a second phoenix instead of a dragon axe finishing 99 fm on the iron. This added a lot of salt to that wound
Better than 1 ax and no pet lol
Tldr: all about 30%
Three days ago I saw a combat level 22 who was not a pure run past me with the Agility pet. Considering he wasn't in graceful, there's a damn good chance he got it within his first 20 Agility levels. Blew my mind that someone could be that lucky.
On my rs3 ironman I got herb pet at lol 39
Anyone else notice when he tried to barehand that eclectic impling? LUL
Just got Phoenix from WT on 105kc. Didnt realise how rare it was.
Thanks for the great content as usual!
I just got a beaver at 57 woodcutting lmao
Agility pet @ 57
F u
I watched this video a few weeks ago, but I just came back to rewatch it as I just my first pet and wanted to know the chances of getting it again. I got rock golem at 71 mining in the Motherlode Mine, which I take it is rather lucky. I always thought my first pet would be the farming pet, as I have 95 farming, much higher than my next highest stat.
I got the beaver from misclicking a dead tree by the fishing trawler lmao
Ova Note You didn’t nobody with a functioning brain would miss click that and then allow the action to follow through before interrupting such a long run to chop a tree
@@VBCVeryBigChannel not to mention, why the fuck would he have an axe with him?
Got beaver at 62 wc choppin maples killing time and waiting for herb to grow. Phoenix at 16wt kc. Didnt realize the rarity
This squirrel was following me around for over 2 hours before i realized i got incredibly lucky at 34 agility to have gotten it!!!! Ty for the info!!
you don't need binomial probability. Just calculate the probability of getting 0 pets and subtract it from 1
Which he didn't do and so his numbers are wrong. He just calculated the chance to get exactly 1 pet... Embellishing his research with university level papers as if this stuff is anything higher than what a 17-18 year old might come across at school. I'm amazed at how few people in the comments haven't realized this glaringly obvious error.
say you catch 100 fish from 1-99 and there's a 1% chance for a pet with each catch. The probability you get 0 pets is 0.99^100 = 0.366 so the probability of getting a pet is 63.4%. if e.g. you catch 50 of fish A and 50 of fish B, you just multiply the probabilities of getting 0 pets doing both. No need for creating combined distributions as described. I haven't checked his results but from how overcomplicated his method sounds, they are probably wrong. If he calculated the probability of getting exactly 1 pet, his figures could be off by as much as 10%
The distribution he should be using is geometric, i.e., what you described right here.
A quick and dirty example using the beaver (I'm using his numbers as an approximation so I'm not 100% certain of the validity).
From 35-99 he says you'll chop over 150 thousand teak trees, each having a probability of 1 in 264,336 of dropping the beaver. The chance that you get the beaver is therefore 1 (the total set, i.e., the probability that 'anything' happens) minus the probability that you don't get the beaver on every single roll, which is 264,335 out of 264,336 occurring 150,000 times. Mathematically, this is...
1 - (264,335 / 264,336)^150,000 = 0.433037
A (very accurate) approximation can also be yielded from the limit of the geometric distribution by taking the ratio of the trials vs the expected drop rate...
1 - e^(-150,000 / 264,336) = 0.433036
Both of these are very far off from the provided answer of 0.3257
EDIT: The original had a mistake in the limit calculation, I forgot the 1 - part which gave a terrible answer.
exactly this lol, if the odds of rc pet are 1/800k for each essence when crafting bloods, just take (799,999/800,000)^(# essence to 99) and subtract from one lmao
So my main goal in osrs is getting quest cape, right? I am at 248 quest points as of the time of me typing this. I still needed to do some of the Kourend quests such as Forsaken Tower, which required 20% Lovakengj favor. So I go with my cousin (who has been doing all the quests with me) to mine volcanic sulfur for like an hour. I was at around 18.9% favor when I saw the red text in the chat box. That's right, I got rock golem while getting Lovakengj favor. It was bittersweet because I hated mining, but what made it even more bittersweet was the drop rate. I looked it up soon after only to find that it was a 1/710,000 chance to get it from volcanic sulfur! Was only 66 mining at the time. All my luck is gone for life, I am sure. Clan chat went nuts. Overall pretty happy about it despite being my least favorite skill. And hey, for a first pet, rock golem is pretty sweet!
Just got the farming pet at level 66 farming, from inspecting my papaya tree 👌🏼
George Jones Undeserved...
Could you also calculate the change of not getting a single skilling pet to max? Id like to know what I rolled lmao
HAHAA
Those hunter miss clicks R333333333
The wintertood calculation is wrong due to multiple rolls per game. I think it's right if you don't fletch. Farming is partially wrong too since many people also do hardwood and seaweed
Me in stats class: when am I ever going to need this??
Theoatrix:
But his math is all wrong
Formula is pretty easy. You just count possibility of not getting it untill 99 and subtract it from 1.
so: 1 - (1-base_rate)^actions_required to count every possibilty.
Ie beaver with teaks (you need to chop 153 083 teaks from 35 to 99) : 1 - ( 1 - 1/264336 ) ^ 153083 = approx 0.4396
yeah i feel like he exaggerated the difficulty in math lmao
Got squirrel at 47 agility in canafis
Not Black yo I got mine at lvl 32 in varrock
Got 2 in 40-50 canfis. Lost when HCIM died :(
Got mine at level 3 agi at gnome
@@Titan4100 same
@@thelegacyofgaming2928 same dude wtf like 5th lap or some shit.. shits crazy.. won lottery too btw first try
Mind explaining your calculations on Tangleroot? Your last video contradicts this one. Wiki puts herbs odds at 1/98k.
remember to talk to Oziach
Not to sound like a smart-ass, but there is a better way to find probabilities than finding the variance...
The chances of not getting the pet after x tries is (prob failure)^(x). Bump that probability to whatever power you want, then take 1 - 'that' to find your chance of getting it. No variances needed.
I definitely was not that 11% for the Phoenix pet..
i got it at about 600 kc
I completed the whole wintertodt at exactly 100kc ☺️
i got it at 212 kc and again at kc 416 rofl
same day i got phoenix i went to fish monkfishes got fishing pet at lvl 69 X D
na u didnt
You didnt calculate the phoenix right. You get multiple rolls from the crates. Sometimes up to 3 or 4.
i got beaver pet before at 30 wood cutting . chopping oaks.
how lucky am i?
omar I got mine before 50wc at reg trees in lumby we lucky AF
46 wc on a willow, good times
Your Herbiboar calculation is wrong, with 4400 kc you'd have an approximate chance of 49.2%. You can calculate it using geometric distribution:
sum (1/6500*(1-1/6500)^(n-1), n = 1 to 4400)
Its 55 for Ardy Knights.
no it isnt
yes it is lmao
its funny that at the end, the slower skills give more chance at the pet because they take longer to get to 99. ex. runecrafting, mining, and the quick skills give a low chance like firemaking etc. But that's not because it's rarer, just because it's quicker to 99
No wonder I'm almost 2000 total with no pets 😅😭
Alex Penrose yeh but what’s your xp?
2083 no pet, 173m xp
Wow I’m 2k total as of yesterday and I’ve had loads of pets now lol; got farming, thieving, woodcutting, daggannoth prime and chaos ele currently 3.2K kc dry of zulrah pet tho :/
AlmostFamous I ment i dont have any skilling pet. I do have couple boss pets tho, jad, kbd and two skotizo pets :)
Its around 100m total xp, no boss or skilling pets :/
This is amazing. Thanks for all the effort it took to figure this out :)
Max Read there was effort, but work smarter, not harder. His calculations are wrong and most things are actually 5-10%p higher
phoenix droprate doesnt make sense, its 1:5k rolls so max 1: 2.5k games, so why would you need around 10 times 600+ games for a pet ;D
Florent Huylenbroeck the droprate doesnt change from 50-99
by that he means, 1/5k rolls doesn't mean you're expected to get it by 2.5k rolls. that's not how probability works
Richard Gibson the chance still comes out to around 25% with 650ish games to 99 and 750 pts average
Yep, theo has calculated the chance of rolling the pet exactly once, but he should have calculated the chance of rolling it at least once. That is, he's not accounted for all the times where you get the pet and then get the "funny feeling like you would have been followed" afterwards. As a result, all his probabilities are significantly lower than they should be.
(In fact, it's much easier to calculate the correct number - you don't need to faff around with binomial distributions, just calculate the chance of not getting the pet from 1-99, and then subtract it from 1.)
No. Getting several pets shouldn't be accounted for since it's about getting 1 unique pet per person, not several.
the only reason why the chance at the farming pet is higher doing herb runs is because it's lower xp so it takes longer to get to 99, so saying make sure to do your herb runs isn't necessarily correct
3:30 this triggered me a bit, 28%*
I got a Rock Golem at Motherlode at level 58 mining. It was cool to see the probability of that happening, thanks!
i just got my agility pet the giant squirlle im only lvl 43
Rhandy Boesjes Undeserved
49 farming and planting my first 2 seaweed underwater… welcome tangleroot
I got a heron while fishing pike
PS_Anomaly pike in June?
Chance-wise for the fishing pet, Its actually fastest to do karambwans (outside of tick manipulation methods). For them its something like 1/170k chance of getting, but you fish them very quickly and they only give 50 xp each. If you go to 99 on them you're doing 250k of them from 65 fishing, so you're very likely to get it.
"ar-doy-en" its ar-doyn
The Flaming One i always say it as "are-dune". where does the "oi" come from?
terry hammac not much makes sense in rs. It just is ar-doyn. 🤷🏼♂️
Arrrgh-Dowwn L0L
in finland you say it how its written, so its ardougne
terry hammac I believe the 'oi' comes from the oug being followed by an n. I just pronounce it the way the jmods say its pronounced.
First pet was Rex at 1300KC
Second pet BloodHound On 2 master clues
Third pet Tangleroot at 89Farm off mushroom 1/7500
Omg finally I can sit back and watch your videos !!!! Could not watch any before:(
I got the thieving pet at 46 thieving while pickpocketing master gardeners. I had no idea what I got was so rare.
Just got mine at 39! So lucky
I'm calling BS on Wintertodt pet.
1/5000 per ROLL - two rolls minimum at 500 gives 1/2500
Rolling 620 to 99 crates at 500 points gives a 620/2500 chance... 24.8
% chance?
Also you may get 750...1000...1500 points a game sometimes which makes it closer to 30% chance.
How did you get 10%???
A lot of work went into the vid. Love the content. Don’t let the haters hate!!
Just got myself a rocky raccoon at 45 thieving while pickpocketing the master farmer at ardy. What are the odds of that?
holy shit 70 agility pet im so hype rn
Anything statistical/probabilistic above 30 repetition can be approximated with Gaussian Normal Law, binomial resumes to a Gaussian at high repetition.
True, but that's complete overkill in this situation. Let X denote the random variable of the number of times you roll the pet by level 99. We want to calculate P(X > 0), which is just 1 - P(X = 0). While X does (roughly) follow a binomial distribution, say X ~ B(n,p), it's straightforward to calculate P(X=0): it's just (1-p)^n. Approximating X by a normal distribution would only lead to a more involved computation.
It seems that Theo had confused himself and was working out P(X = 1). For this, the central limit theorem would indeed be helpful, but this is an irrelevant calculation.
are the chances of getting a beaver doing redwoods up to date? I see other guides saying it is a higher chance
My first pet ever was tanglefoot at 89 farming off a pineapple tree at Lletya. No one was there to see it.
Good video, however I don't see where you get a lot of the maths from.
For example;
Herbiboar
1/6,500 chance to recieve the pet
4,400 required for 80-99
Yet you have that written as a 34.40% chance for the pet,
67.69% is what I calculated.
Besides that, enjoy the videos, keep up the good work Theo!
I have received 2 Skilling pets thus far; at 93 RC I got the RC pet(Blood runes from 77), and at 87 WC I received the Beaver pet (while cutting yews from 60). From 62-99 Fishing, I did monkfish and didn't receive the pet, however.
Did you use Excl? or did you do it all on paper? I think your calculations are accurate, but I was wondering if I could see an Excl spreadsheet on it. You know... so I can see your calculations. (I have had statistics too :p).
It shouldn't be too big of a task to re-use the calculations and calculate the drop rate of... specifically... Vorki pet... right? I want to know... really really do.. maybe the chance of it in 2k kills.
His numbers are way off
I got the phoenix as my first pet at 90 FM. Keep in mind I started doing the mini game at level 70 cuz I recently found out about it.
just got farming pet on a maple tree and wanted to see how rare it was
I hate that someone like Framed has more subs then my boy theoatrix
Dude Iove your content and love the knowledge but how hard is it to get B-roll of the diffrent skills?? It seems weird to talk about tree while catching chins lol
You’re almost guaranteed to get heron pet if u fish karambwans. You need 260,000 to get to 99 and the drop rate is 1/170,000
Link to the math is broken. Was wondering why you used binomial rather than geometric probabilities although they'd probably come out the same if you did it right.
Been fishing lobsters 50-61 and got the heron today... that's why I'm watching this video!
Got on Tangleroot at about 9.5mil xp off of a torstol! A TORSTOL!! I thought someone was standing on top of me with one at first.
I remember when I got my Tangleroot from a Mahogany tree, I thought it was someone elses. I told the guy nice pet. Then realized it was mine!
Once you have the pet, does anything special happen?? What are pets use for?
im guessing when u worked out firemaking u didnt include 3 rolls at pet per kill
Got rocky from pickpocketing master farmers at only level 48. Didnt realize how lucky that was until I saw this.
Added note to your farming pet, hardwood tree's are same rate as spirit tree's for Tangleroot 1/5k that's both teak and mahogany
this video made me realize how spooned i was with the winter todt pet. no wonder i havent gotten another one yet haha
I got a beaver on my UIM at 66 wc cutting a maple with a steel axe. Its like he saw me trying so hard on that single maple log for a bow and wanted to help ROFL
So can you still get the pet if you are already 99
Didn't know you could get the pet from blast mining... Well, hard to be disappointed when you're already 99
i got the tanglefoot at lvl 42 farming at the hops patch south of varrock while harvesting wildblood hops. i had no idea it was so rare.
I got the beaver at lvl 33 Woodcutting from an Oak tree. Funny thing is, I didn't even know what pet's were at the time. I had just gotten back into Runescape. So you can imagine how freakin confused I was when this beaver hopped down and started following me. I had no idea how lucky I was till people started freaking out that I had the beaver. Apparently being an Ironman skiller with a pet at such a low lvl get's people riled up...
Impressive math skills . well done!
?? This is high school level probability, and he's botched it completely. Binomial distribution is inappropriate here, and it's resulted in his numbers being way, way lower than they should be. e.g. phoenix chance is ~20% and herbiboar is ~49%.
kind of wish you added pet methods. ardy knights are not the best way to get the theiving pet, draynor stalls is.
Can you still get a pet after getting 99? If you continue to skill
I have a math problem that I would like someone else to do. In the GWD, what is the odds of getting a hilt, followed by shards 1, 2, and 3 from minions in just 1 round?
Theo, How did you even calculate the rc pet drop rates for blood and soul runes when Jagex has not commented on whether or not the drop rate is rolled per dark essence block or per dark essence fragment? People asked Mod Kieren to clarify this, and he gave no response. There has been no official statement since, so the rc pet rates for blood/soul runes are pure speculation
well most players play through a client like OSBuddy which actively records every xp gain and drop chance, so they can look at "the average player used 2Mil essence to get to here, thus we can assume the drop-rate is near 1/2000000, meaning if it takes x essence to get from x to x thus it is..." We already know the droprates from other rune altars anyways, between testing and Jagex telling us, and with a lot of the pet chances in crafting the % chance from when you can first farm them to 99 is about the same chance (although that means the drop rate goes up since you are using less essence because of increased xp). Jagex likes to keep things simple and pretty much in-line.
I dont think you know how blood/soul runecrafting works. Either that or you responded to the wrong comment. Your response has nothing to do with what I asked
Damn chance of Phoenix is super rare?? Makes me feel blessed that ive got one on my way to 99 ❤❤
Nah, it's the 6th most common skillling pet. Calculations weren't right it seems.
I dont think he realized that there are multiple rolls per crate. His calculations only did one roll, but for most games of wt you get 2-3 rolls.
@@PlanetAfterlife I was still blessed with my purple bird 🙏
Need a new updated skilling pet video from you my man.
Got my farming pet last night at 87 farming off a magic tree! So happy!