Advanced Poker EV Formula | Poker Quick Plays
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 มี.ค. 2014
- Need the Basic EV video first? • The Basics Of Poker EV...
This video was created by www.splitsuit.com for www.thepokerbank.com
SplitSuit shows a situation where the basic EV formula just doesn't cut it. Using a 5bet shove with 8♥6♥ as an example, you will learn how to understand a more advanced EV equation and how to fill in each variable. Understanding the concept of F and C, and also how equity influences the equation, will help build a solid framework to visualize these situations in the future.
Using Equilab: • How To Use Equilab (Fr... ...
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dude, i love your channel. thank you for all this free content!
You're very welcome Jonny
This is great, thank you so much. You explain it all perfectly.
Hey there, big fan of your videos here! Thanks for all the effort you put into this.
I have two questions regarding EV in general.
1. Is there a way to efficiently use EV in SNGs, since for example it wouldn't make sense to call with all of my Chips with an equity of 35% and +EV, since 65% of the times I'm going to bust. In the long run i'm gonna get more Chips in total, yes, but I'm gonna loose more SNGs, or am I completly missing out on something?
2. Let's say I'm a small stake player, 50c1$ nl cash game. I play most of my games in this category and I focus on making +EV plays.
Can I still sometimes play a higher stake, like 1$2$ and make the same +EV plays? Since when I loose money with those +EV calls in my rarely played higher stakes, the +EV calls in the smaller stakes probably won't make up for it.
I hope i made my questions clear and not too confusing, English isn't my native language.
+Tim Haercke thanks Tim!
1. You would use ICM in SNGs
2. EV is EV, it doesn't matter what stake you play at or how many players are at the table.
Hi! Thanks for the video, it´s great!! I´m from Argentina, so sometimes it can be difficult for me to understand some things, is there some way to don´t use a calculator to use this formula, i mean like some standard numbers to remember?
Thank you!
Nahu Marin you're very welcome! Unfortunately there are no standard numbers to memorize...but the more times you do these calculations the easier it becomes to estimate things in real-time.
Concerning the mutation of the pot size in the example starting at (0:50).
I understand the pot showing the start of $1.50 containing the blinds.
I see the pot grow normally through 3Bet.
But near the end of the betting round, 4Bet and 5Bet,
ending at (0:58) the pot indicates $130.50.
Should that not be $146.50?
Thanks
is there an equation to finding out how often villain folds/calls 5bet shove here??
Hey James, I am a big fan of all of your content. Please keep it coming. Currently, I am working through the Math & Preflop workbook and I'm struggling with the EV: Advanced Section. I don't understand how to calculate %w and %L based on the questions. Using Questions 2. on page 153. How do you use the assumed fold% and %equity when called to calculate the %w and %L. I feel like I have watched all your videos on the subject several times but I am missing something.
Cheers John and I hope you are enjoying the workbook overall! Have you seen the video for that chapter included in companion course? If not, you can enroll for free here: www.splitsuit.com/the-poker-math-course and inside go to the Preflop Workbook > Expected Value (EV) lesson
hello the poker bank! i am a big fan of your work, you do it cause your love it, i can tell that! you are also really smart. I have been thinking, when you plug 0.25 for how often villain folds when he 4bet bluffs, dont you have to plug some bluffs at the equity calculator too??. You plugged 0.25 for how often villain folds but the range you plugged was '' TT +, AKo, AKs and that was it...when he bluffs 25% of the time out equity is a bit better than that...isn it?
given villains range (TT+ AKo, AKs), he is not folding 25%...i got confused why u did not plug few bluffing combos in his range..
It's all correct in the vid. The equity is calculate only VS the range that call the push. In the long run we will win a % of the pot equal to our equity when villain call the push(id est Vs his calling range) , but when he fold we will win all the pot right now (and not a %of it). Hope this is clear and sorry for my English. Bye
What's an easy way to multiply decimals like .25(34.5) and .75(.27x117.5) from your example. Sadly I've forgotten everything from math class
Turn into fractions.
.25=1/4. Multiply your number by top, and divide by bottom. So 34.5x1, 34.5/4, or written (34.5x1)/4
.75 is 3/4. So for simplicity, use 34.5 again,
(34.5x3)/4= 103.5/4 = idk, difficult in my head lol, but you can guesstimate, 100/4 is 250, so like 250.08
At 2:37 in the video, the video explains, that %C is the villain's equity, when he calls. However, there is no %C variable in the formula. The only C, that is, is allready defined as C, which is an estimation of how often villain will call hero's shove.
That should say %L. Good eye!
So, James, all those years I have been calculating it wrong because of this and making all those neg EV actions. ;-)
Does this formula work if I'm just calculating how profitable a 3bet is preflop? For ex. btn raises 3x, I'm in the bb and I 3bet 3x btns raise?
Kwautro you would want the formula from this video: th-cam.com/video/umMnLLnUIcI/w-d-xo.html
The Poker Bank So this is only used for allins preflop where we are the one shoving?
The Poker Bank Also just realized. The video is helpful. But it doesn't give me all the info I'm looking for. Still sort of confused. I can find out how often my 3bet preflop needs to work with breakeven %, but how do I know what hands he folds and calls and 4bet, of his range? Like if he opens btn 50% and I 3bet in bb, how do I construct a 3bet range? Because I only know how often my 3bet needs to work, not what hands to use based on what hands he will call/fold/4bet with..? I hope Im making sense.
Kwautro That's where hand reading and experience come into play. Open up Equilab (since it's free), and plug in a range of hands your opponent would open (see how wide it is in %-form) and then think about what hands they would fold, call, and 4bet. Take 100%-(fold/open) and you can estimate how often they'd fold to your 3bet...
Cool! Thanks for the great info!
McGavel1 You're very welcome McGavel!
So in a 4handed game UTG10/7 over 175hands open raised 3bbs, bttn called 21/12 over 43sample, and I cc from bb with J9h...Flop Kh8h4c....check, UTG bets 5bb, bttn calls...hero??....not sure how to work implied odds into this hand...
After 5 years maybe I can help you and the ones reading it now.
1st of all, against a supernit CO and a tight button i wouldnt have called at all. If you want to play there, you need to 3bet and get at least 1 of them out.
2nd you got a good flop, you had to check-raise there because you got a flush draw and almost a straight draw.
3rd if he calls back, if you got nuts in the turn, you go value bet/shove, otherwise you can check/call him if he doesn't shove.
4th If he shoves in a turn where you didnt take the card needed, you can use the EV formula. If you arent deep stacked, calling a shove there would probably be EV+. This is because that's a 3bet+check/raised pot, so a standard shove wouldnt be that much
Hi,
Does this apply for bvb situation?
blinds 150/300 and Im in SB with 1850 after posting.
In this situation do I must calculate -1850 If I give up preflop? and (%w*$w)-(%L*$L)
Thank you very much for your time.
Tongjin Kim it would apply if you were calculating the EV of resteal-shoving, yes.
The Poker Bank
Thank you for the reply
I suppose you only answered first part of my question.
So in the example I wrote is NOT a resteal situation. and I SHOULD calculate -1850 for folding preflop vs the player in the BB. (bb stack is 3200 after posting 300 in the bb)
-1850 for folding pre
We shove and bb fold
we shove bb call we win
we shove bb call we lose
Add it all up = Total Ev
But If it was re-steal shoving situation,
I should not calculate -1850 for folding.
Thanks in advance.
Tongjin Kim folding is -0 since the SB doesn't belong to you once posted and you can't lose what you don't put into the pot.
Hi,
I was referring this question from another site that explains how to calculate ev.
www.pokerology.com/lessons/calculating-expected-value/
If you scroll to the middle of the page there is example for blind versus blind(Figure 3).
This person is calculating -1850 Total expectation of folding.
Is he wrong? Or I misunderstood the situation.
I truly appreciate your help.
Thanks again.
Let me try one really quick, but using extra short cuts I made up. Let me know SS if this is incorrect thinking, better thinking, or somewhere in between.
blinds $1/$2 6 max, UTG opens $4, co raises to $15
I cold shove 78o to $140 and I think villain(s) is folding about half the time.
When called, I expect to have ~%28 equity.
Pot is 3 from the blinds, 4 from utg, and 15 from co. That is 22.
Half the time I pick up 22, giving me $11 in equity on the shove inherently.
Half the time the pot becomes 300 or so, and I get %28 of that back with some variance (around $90 in value)
Therefore, I have $101 in equity in the situation, losing me $39 in expected value. Good thing I am balanced with a few combos of KK and AK. xD
How bout if the pot is split? Both lose because of the rake.
what if the ev+ is too low in comparison with the risk, that no compensate because the house win a % of our money? For example in an all in move where we bet 100$ with an ev+ of 3$ and the house win a 5% of the pot. the house win 5$ from us. that would make us lose 2$ in the long term. Is right?
yes, rake is so high, factor that in or play home games only. Also tips. You want to tip as well.
One Question, the same scenario we assume after all math gives us a -5$ EV, we have already lost 10$ with 3b, now if we go all in, we lose 15$ or we save 5$? or the 10 are already dead and we lost more 5? Thanks, wait for replay.
andrew hijjii the $10 no longer belongs to us, it belongs to the pot.
It belongs to the pot but it also discounts our raise. When we bet $140, we are only committing 130 more. Similar to the mechanics of the big blind. It technically belongs to the pot, but it can be used to discount incoming bets. If you are on the big blind for $2, and someone bets $10, it's only $8 to call, not $10.
It doesn't discount the pot because that discount is already factored in the price of the All-In: You are calculating EV based on the extra price that you're paying to see the showdown, which does not include the money already in the pot.
With that said, there are other considerations, such as whether or not folding puts you in a no-win position. For instance, if after folding you only have money to pay for a single big blind, you will have no choice but "shove" whatever is left of your stack, a shove now might beat the EV of shoving with random cards afterwards.
I'd ilke to have seen the equity equation of the call.. it seems to me it has better EV. Doesn't it?
At the end of this video, he says that we can take it further. I was wondering how this was so and what factor it would be
Jack Glendenning For instance, you could do multi-street analysis and drive down different branches of the tree. If you are interested in doing that kind of work...consider using CardRunners EV
To include ties I used this formula (%W * $W) + (%T * $W) - (%L *$L) ..is this right? I would like to try some multi-street EV calcs but that seems like it would get complicated in a hurry.
Technically in a tie you would lose to the rake (unless there is enough overlay from other opponents). If you are looking to do complex multi-street EV calculations you should look into CardRunners EV.
I didn't think about the rake Thanks! I'm gonna checkout CardRunnersEV... Are you going to add anymore splitsuit videos to the video section of the pokerbank.com ? Those videos are awesome
Ron K overtime we will add more SplitSuit videos to the site. We're just doing some site redesign things first
Cool , thanks for the quick replies ... I still go to the pokerbank a lot to brush up on a lot of fundamental topics , I was asking about the videos because splitsuits videos are the best and I haven't seen any added in a while , I'll keep checking ..Thanks Again !
howinclude the rake in cash games in the formula?
Scroll down to the bottom of this article: www.splitsuit.com/ak-ev
This is very interesting info. But - seriously, how can you have time to calculate it? For example in online Poker.. you got 10 seconds timer.. so even if you are using the equilab, its not enough time... ?
yoavs88 very true
Lets say you want to bluff shove a flop in a tourney. Your equity against his pre flop calling range is about 50 50 on the flop because you hit bottom pair. You also work out the combos of his range and realize that he'll probably fold about 80% of the time. Would you use the original equity calculation or the much more dominant calling range of the villain? Lets say when he calls you now have 20% equity... would you use that or stick with the original 50 50? I would assume you'd want to use the equity you calculate if villain calls (20%).
Btw I'm not saying that this is an optimal move... maybe it could be a river shove... but I just want to make sure I'm doing the correct math.
Thank you so much Splitsuit! I've become a MUCH stronger player thanks to you... Please don't ever stop!
Rick Neibauer fold equity is our friend. If they will fold and you can pick up heaps of chips often...that's typically a better option.
The Poker Bank yes... but when I'm actually doing the math and practicing advanced EV situations, I'd be subtracting his calling range right? So it would be: X - .2( .8 x shove)
right?
all together: .8(pot) + .2( .2 x total$) - .2( .8 x shove)
it is always better to have better F equity than %W i think???
This video is the nuts. Just a question :
How do you evaluate his % fold ? Do you use fold vs 5 bet ? Fold vs 5 bet vs hero ? How many hands to be accurate ?.
Do you use also stats/notecaddy to find vilain calling range/.... ? Is there a formula to find a calling range based on the 4 bet range stat ? Like 4bet range x %call 5 bet.
Employement Living tons of hands for a stat like to be accurate. And Notecaddy is a great way to keep track of hands where villain did end up showing his cards. And yes, look at the players call, fold, and re-raise numbers for the same stat and you'll quickly get an idea on how wide each of those ranges are.
Thanx
Does anyone 4bet bluff that much ?
is there any program that calculate it automatically?
yeah, you can buy bot and run it on multiple tables... but it´s ilegal, for sure :)
How would the loss be $96 wouldn't it be $112 since this is what the video shows he had behind?
Rewatch the video around 3:30 =)
WHAT IS EV
For an answer to that question (and more info about EV), start with this video: th-cam.com/video/jiPmaif9szQ/w-d-xo.html
Theory: Plus EV shove with 86h
Reality: Snap called by A10os
Ya pues
i did not understand why 117.5 and not 107.5... if he calls and we win.. we would win 107.5... i am confused
Your $10 3bet does not belong to you any more - so that gets lumped in what you win and does not get included in what you risk/jam
James (SplitSuit) mmm... so if i 3bet to $60 is better for us because on that case if he goes all in... we should count the $107.5 + $60 in the positive side of the calculations..🤔 haha
1:19 4. He calls and we split the pot
Just posting this here, in the case that you do respond. I imagine you have some sort of mathematical background, in whatever capacity. In finance, as well as economics, these types of formulas and similar concepts are preset, but there are so many different theories and variables, which could produce varying outcomes. My question is: Doesn't that occur here, and make this sort of an inexact science?
It's about long terme expected value so of course it's not perfect. An it also depend if you're using it right obviously. As the title said it's "Advanced".
who really has that much time to figure out the odds, theres a time bank for most hands
Tony Abraham like many things in poker, the more you practice these things off the table...the easier it becomes to estimate the math in real-time.
of course the probability of villain folding won’t be calculated to an exact value, but at least you know if the villain will fold more than half the time etc..
nice math but not practical, most of the times you have no idea of folding/calling percentage of your opponent …and even if, you never have time to calculate such a complex formula in live or online games ….you can only speculate and you need to have learned the ev stats of each hand off table before
And your proposed alternative is to skip the math and then...what?
@@ThePokerBank in this case for sure ….why would I shove 86s anyway with no need? to do this, I really need to know villain good enough and be sure that he folds (when I get called I‘m pretty much screwed) ….then I don‘t need the math; with hands like middle pair or maybe ATo the math might be handy, but still too complex (at least for me ;))
Edges exist in complexity =)
it all commest to speculation, because you need to make assumptions. the other player can have any cards he wants to play ergo your shove with such bullshit hand is just a gamble
if you do this in every hand you are crazy, too much.