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At around 1 hour he talks about how some wonder how or if the etfs will change the fundamental nature of bitcoin in some negative way. As he explains, that thought process fails to recognize how social network systems, like growing cities work. instead the ETFs is what the system attracted to it so that it can go to the next order of magnitude as governed by its natural power law. It’s interesting to see how Bitcoin has somehow, maybe by correlating it to energy and time, become a self reinforcing feedback loop. A force of nature or a natural phenomenon that is tapping into some of the universal laws. Reminds me of Saylors comment, “you (society doesn’t) don’t change bitcoin, bitcoin changes you (society).”
Sort of. ETFs are only funded by people who want to make money. Those same ETFs will dump BTC when the people who own shares in it get spooked or make enough money and sell. Thus returning the price to the power law. Regarding it being parallel to city growth, people come to a city for opportunity. If those opportunities fail to manifest, people will leave and seek opportunities elsewhere. Thus the power law of the city growth is restored.
This man shows how Bitcoin follows the mathematical behavior of networks and systems. Plan B compares the price of bitcoin to its stock to flow, which is a simple power formula that relates its supply flow (mining output) to its total stock (total bitcoin in market). If you don’t see how this is science, you don’t understand science.
This was a very clear, concise scientific analysis and as a fellow physicist, i am truly grateful for Giovanni's time sharing his thoughts. What he said is important. For those of you posting negative comments i suggest you go back to school, work harder...then maybe you will understand
I think PlanB gave people like this a bad name. At the end of the day, models are models but they're all still interesting. Since PlanB, I think a ton of model-people temper expectations in their models now. With this one, the stable rise to certain milestones makes so much more sense... especially when compared to the other charts(languages, cities, etc) in this video. I think bitcoin has already succeeded but if it's to grow, becoming more stable will be a milestone all its own.
I developed the model before PlanB and I didn't temper the model or the theory because of S2F. On the contrary, I always considered S2F unrealistic because of what I could see in the data for Bitcoin. But I agree with you on the rest.
Brilliant video. I'm a physicist too and I agree that Bitcoin should be studied also by physicists, not just economists. I've been working on a similar theory in the last couple of years, and I feel that Bitcoin is a kind of digital life form (not sentient of course) with a symbiotic relation with society, that's why it should follow some natural power law. Just a question about the issue "how can we try to invalidate this (beatiful) theory?": why we don't just apply the same theory to similar phenomena, e.g. the stock value of Meta or similar network driven techs? The value of a social network also goes with the square of the users, and its adoption also goes with an S curve. So why all other techs based on the "network effect" are not following the same time^6 rule? Is it because Bitcoin is still in the earlier phase of the S curve, while other techs already reached the plateau?
Dude, you seriously need to watch Monty Python. It is old and politically incorrect for over sensitive people these days but it’s an historically significant cultural reference.
Let's not underestimate the effect of fiat debasement world-wide. 1 Millions USD is already not what it was as short back as 15 years ago, and 15 years is not such long time. Think real estate prices, good education, good quality holidays. Prices of rare things already shot up. There seems to be an acceleration of this debasement as well. Beware what you invest in when selling your real sats or btc to Blackrock.
Until the launch of ETFs, BTC had grown or evolved organically. I wonder how the big financial institutions will affect BTC behavior in the future. Will BTC continue to adhere to Power Law?
Silly #Bitcoin, the value depends on the price per #Satoshi or "SAT" and there are 100,000,000 or 100 million of them per Bitcoin. So there are many sats, exactly 21 million x 100 million or 2.1 x 10^15 satoshis. That is a big number. At $60,000 per Bitcoin each satoshi is worth $0.0006. When each satoshi is worth $0.01 or 1 cent then there would have been 16X growth or sixteen times growth from the $60,000 value today. So that would put a $960,000 or close to $1 million value of 1 Bitcoin. Then they will wait for the $1.00 satoshi value or $100,000,000 Bitcoin.
@@DucotevisionAt $1 million each, Bitcoin's market cap would still be less than the US bond market. Just because it's exciting doesn't mean it's unrealistic.
With tax day on April 15th, high net worth bitcoin holders could be leaving a lot of money on the table. Don’t get killed on taxes. Check out Sound Advisory at thesoundadvisory.com.
Thank you for this interview unchained. Those who have read his theory know that his model is far more realistic than unsustainable exponential models
At around 1 hour he talks about how some wonder how or if the etfs will change the fundamental nature of bitcoin in some negative way. As he explains, that thought process fails to recognize how social network systems, like growing cities work. instead the ETFs is what the system attracted to it so that it can go to the next order of magnitude as governed by its natural power law.
It’s interesting to see how Bitcoin has somehow, maybe by correlating it to energy and time, become a self reinforcing feedback loop. A force of nature or a natural phenomenon that is tapping into some of the universal laws.
Reminds me of Saylors comment, “you (society doesn’t) don’t change bitcoin, bitcoin changes you (society).”
Beautiful. Thank you.
Sort of.
ETFs are only funded by people who want to make money. Those same ETFs will dump BTC when the people who own shares in it get spooked or make enough money and sell. Thus returning the price to the power law.
Regarding it being parallel to city growth, people come to a city for opportunity. If those opportunities fail to manifest, people will leave and seek opportunities elsewhere. Thus the power law of the city growth is restored.
This man shows how Bitcoin follows the mathematical behavior of networks and systems. Plan B compares the price of bitcoin to its stock to flow, which is a simple power formula that relates its supply flow (mining output) to its total stock (total bitcoin in market). If you don’t see how this is science, you don’t understand science.
As a long-time btc skeptic, this guy work is very compelling.
great video!
No it wasn’t… it’s moon boy stupid price focus content.
Amazing analysis and presentation. Brilliant mind. Thank you
hard to argue with the power law thesis...
This was a very clear, concise scientific analysis and as a fellow physicist, i am truly grateful for Giovanni's time sharing his thoughts. What he said is important. For those of you posting negative comments i suggest you go back to school, work harder...then maybe you will understand
I think PlanB gave people like this a bad name. At the end of the day, models are models but they're all still interesting.
Since PlanB, I think a ton of model-people temper expectations in their models now. With this one, the stable rise to certain milestones makes so much more sense... especially when compared to the other charts(languages, cities, etc) in this video. I think bitcoin has already succeeded but if it's to grow, becoming more stable will be a milestone all its own.
I developed the model before PlanB and I didn't temper the model or the theory because of S2F. On the contrary, I always considered S2F unrealistic because of what I could see in the data for Bitcoin. But I agree with you on the rest.
I'm making Power Law based model since 2014, much earlier than PlanB.
Brilliant video. I'm a physicist too and I agree that Bitcoin should be studied also by physicists, not just economists. I've been working on a similar theory in the last couple of years, and I feel that Bitcoin is a kind of digital life form (not sentient of course) with a symbiotic relation with society, that's why it should follow some natural power law.
Just a question about the issue "how can we try to invalidate this (beatiful) theory?": why we don't just apply the same theory to similar phenomena, e.g. the stock value of Meta or similar network driven techs? The value of a social network also goes with the square of the users, and its adoption also goes with an S curve. So why all other techs based on the "network effect" are not following the same time^6 rule? Is it because Bitcoin is still in the earlier phase of the S curve, while other techs already reached the plateau?
Up.
Thanks
Genius!
Dude, you seriously need to watch Monty Python. It is old and politically incorrect for over sensitive people these days but it’s an historically significant cultural reference.
What happens to bitcoin when the US dollar devalues logarithmically? This makes me wonder what law the rate of inflation follows.
Let's not underestimate the effect of fiat debasement world-wide. 1 Millions USD is already not what it was as short back as 15 years ago, and 15 years is not such long time.
Think real estate prices, good education, good quality holidays. Prices of rare things already shot up. There seems to be an acceleration of this debasement as well.
Beware what you invest in when selling your real sats or btc to Blackrock.
Do you guys think Btc will hit 300k in 2025?
No
Depends on how high it goes in 2024
Maybe
Until the launch of ETFs, BTC had grown or evolved organically. I wonder how the big financial institutions will affect BTC behavior in the future. Will BTC continue to adhere to Power Law?
Sheesh..am i the only one that got 1/10th of that
no
Silly #Bitcoin, the value depends on the price per #Satoshi or "SAT" and there are 100,000,000 or 100 million of them per Bitcoin. So there are many sats, exactly 21 million x 100 million or 2.1 x 10^15 satoshis. That is a big number. At $60,000 per Bitcoin each satoshi is worth $0.0006. When each satoshi is worth $0.01 or 1 cent then there would have been 16X growth or sixteen times growth from the $60,000 value today. So that would put a $960,000 or close to $1 million value of 1 Bitcoin. Then they will wait for the $1.00 satoshi value or $100,000,000 Bitcoin.
Is bsv going to flip btc ?
THIS IS MY SEESTARRR
Sure, why not 😅
😂 kidding right?
???
This guy Giovanni’s bullshit model is about as organized as the shelf behind him.
More like numerology
Im done with this guy. He talks the same sht over and over again.
Science? lol. Cringe. I thought Unchained was better than this. This is worse than Plan B.
NGU technology is a real thing.
10000% even they aren’t above click bait to grow their channel…. Very disappointing letting this sort of behavior on here.
@@DucotevisionAt $1 million each, Bitcoin's market cap would still be less than the US bond market. Just because it's exciting doesn't mean it's unrealistic.
This comment makes no sense… if you hope for BTC to 1 mil tomorrow well you live in wonderland
@@mattia8888I don't hope for $1 million, I prepare for it.
❤ Anyone named Giovanni, by default must invent something or create a line of hair products.❤ 🤌🏽
Oh Okay