Wagner is in Belarus to wait out the old guy in Moscow. When he falls out the window Prigozhin will have a significant force to negotiate his position in the new system. The threats on Poland etc... are just smoke and mirrors
Less "smoke and mirrors" and more "free brownie points with the ultranationalists / nazis in russia". Hes trying to prepare his constituency ... still bonkers that he has not been executed (windowed) by now.
Anders, you have great sense of reason and calm objective and analytical perspectives on these situations. As a fellow dane I cant help feeling a little proud to see a countryman like you sharing your valuable insights with us. Håber du får en dejlig weekend! :)
I love your way of getting the next level of assumptions in to the debat, as example why the Wagner soldiers are placed at the Polish boarder, to be as long away from Russia as possible !
If Wagner made any moves in Poland, not only would the Polish military respond forcefully but the civilian population would also react to an 'invasion' by Russians backed with a German name - memories of WW II and communist domination have not gone away.
@@Not-a-GSDArticle 5 does not guarantee support from other NATO members, the big danger is if Poland or the Balts tried to cut off access to Kaliningrad, that would really be poking the bear. They would be on their own for certain.
@@rich11a15 Once Russia has been defeated and removed from all Ukrainian territory they need to be thrown out of Kaliningrad which should be returned to Poland. Russia needs to be weakened for a generation to protect Europe from Russia’s perpetual aggression towards its neighbours.
@@jonathanbarrett1708 They need to be broken, WW2-Germany style. Not just isolated and humiliated because all that will achieve is they'll become a Chinese client state. They must be forcibly broken away from China, the oligarchs and putin's inner circle need to cease to exist and the country rebuild as a proper democracy after being shown just how perilously close putin brought them to utter destruction so they become like Germany putting military readiness so far down on priorities that the line between action and being destroyed blurred.
Thanks for the great analysis! Overall I'm pretty impressed by Prigozhin. The wily bastard is getting out of some tight spots, likely controls the key to Russia's foreign policy in Africa, and is looking like perhaps the most competent/media savvy leader in Russia's group of contenders. He seems like a dangerous man to underestimate.
It's funny how the potty mouth chef turns up in Russia like for the African "meet and greet" though and other visits, obviously because Putin "asked" him to be there, it's a very Russian "in fight" at present, meanwhile Putin's military are being purged, Wagner has been absorbed into the Russian military in Russia and the rest shoved into Belarus as a bad fit, the African arm is undergoing a management change and the military blogger's are being dissuaded from being critical by the Chief blogger's impending prison sentence which will be for a very long time. Everything points to Putin being under some sort of pressure but his "Moscow" enemies have not shown themselves as yet, although the rumour is they will collapse things by doing things badly, and that will be difficult to gauge because that has been in evidence during the entirety of the illegal invasion!?!
Excellent timing! My faith in your content is big enough to forward it to my dutch and english readers, even before watching it myself. Wich i will do now...
Why you don't have a million subscribers is beyond my understanding. Your analysis has always been on point concerning this conflict and is appreciated. Thank you for a dispassionate look at the miasma that is the Ukraine-Russia war. My days go back to the Fulda Gap through Kosovo, Iraq 2 and Afghanistan. It's supremely important to have timely, accurate intel, so thank you for what you do. Write the book on this little circus we have on our hands.
@@bobbytookalook People really misunderstand the whole rational actor thing, even politicians. Rational does not mean they access risk, consequences, worth , and situation the same way. Also everybody does not have the same access and scope of information.
Yep. "Realpolitik", "rationality" frequently assumes that an adversary minds works the same as ours. In case of Western people thinking of Russians this is a grave mistake.
Thank you Anders, I really needed a good explanation about the whole situation with Wagner and Poland because it didn't make much sense to me. Now it does!
This week I was on vacation north of Suwalki, near the border. Beautiful place, very peaceful and the best option is to ignore all this fear mongering. Polish forces and especially the population will not let any dumb thing to happen.
Hi Anders, Thank you. Always clear precise logical thoughts on this current issue. I guess a better picture may present itself as each month passes. Great posts
Of all the posts that I listen to. Yours is the one I look forward to listening to the most. Clear and concise. What is Russia playing at? You can't write this stuff. It's ridiculous what they are doing! Thanks.
To anyone who has stumbled on this channel accidentally or casually, and is wondering, allow me to say that whenever Anders publishes a video on TH-cam, I immediately watch it. There are very few other channels that make me do this. In other words, to me, this channel is essential watching!
100% agree. I am fully supportive of Ukraine (hence my avatar) and I could watch a dozen other channels that make me nod in agreement. But Ander's channel is like a repository for strategic and political thinking that I would watch if he were discussing ANY international conflict. It just so happens that is area of expertise aligns with my interest. He a sober... balance... and surprisingly cheerful voice among the pundits. Indeed, his analysis does make the conflict seem more like a breakdown of the football match, which I both like and find slightly surreal.
Me too - I think one of the other good channels I watch recommended him a while back. Anders is one of my regular staples for information on the illegal invasion. His analysis, reporting and presentation are always superb. The production quality is spot on considering how quickly he gets it posted.
Great analysis! The immediate action is Hybrid Warfare. Polish Immigration Control expenses have skyrocketed and keep growing since the migrant chess game started by Putin 3 years ago as he was simultaneously putting the troops along the Ukrainian Borders. TVP Poland, which is in English, shows clips of Africans sawing through the metal bars of the fence. They fly migrants in from Africa to try to get into Poland and then the migrants ask for asylum. They assume some will get past the border guards. Some are simply posing as migrants but are supplied with cash and underground contacts. They want to disrupt the rail and roads into Ukraine to disrupt the supply chain of weapons and aid. Poland is constantly finding spies and saboteurs around the munition crates, military bases, and other sensitive facilities. The little green men ultimately sow civil disagreement as citizens and the EU debate treatment of migrants. The little green men are just like Hitler’s planted Germans in the Sudetenland prior to WWII. Look up Green Case from the 1930s some time. Centuries of peace in Silesia was disrupted when ethnic Germans, who had been living in peace with the Poles and Czechs in Silesia, started complaining that they weren't treated fairly.
Time to get over the African sob story. Hungary showed that meeting border jumpers with bullets puts an immediate STOP to that nonsense. Real world Rule #1, you only own what you are willing to protect.
Surely the Suwalki Gap is one of the most heavily surveilled regions on Earth? How could any movement across any of the borders possibly go unnoticed? In which case, Wagner can't pull a "little gray men" move because everyone will see them coming. Literally.
@@hb1338 The only surprise will be on the Wagner faces when they see the Poles grinning from ear to ear as they open up every single can of whoop-ass they have at their disposal.
Expecting Russia to get any kind of support in Poland is laughable. Also expecting Poland to back down from supporting Ukraine if attacked by Wagner is also quite silly. If anything Poland would probably provide more support.
Might be a good time for a joint NATO exercise in Poland. Ya know, the full combined arms type exercise. Armor, AFV, HiMars, Attack Helos, Fighters, Bombers, A-10s, drones, cruise missiles pretty much everything NATO has at hand. Let Wagner know that an attack on Poland would be 10x worse than what they experienced in Ukraine. And let Lukashenko worry about a regime change in Belarus. Might even affect their willingness to continue support of Russias war in Ukraine. If they had any sense.
In his sober moments, Putin must know that he will not survive a defeat (by anyone). It is already extremely bad for him to be in a stalemate with Ukraine.
You give us unusually clear analyses of the situation. They are by far the sharpest interpretations of the situation to be found anywhere. Thank you so much for your contrbutions.
Great video, you and Perun are the two chanels I wait most. Interestingly Hriato Grozev (you know the guy that help find the killers of Navalni ) also believe that Prigozhin will eithe day or will make new attemt in the next 6 months.
I do think it is extremely unlikely it would occur. I'd pose what was the original premise of the Wagner mutiny? Ammo and disgust with Shoigu and Gerasimov. Those 100 dudes, mercenaries might have just drove up to that place to get some ammo and refit. With the understanding there is a redemptive path for both Belarus and Russia, now go back to your land and carry out these redemptive missions... Excellent Video Content = Puck
All media anti nato sentiments indicate soon a future war. European countries need to mobilise and deploy a 5 million man army on Russias border to escalate this war sooner than later
@@cherrydestroyer1717 well, NATO has been preparing Ukranian soldiers since 2014 for this. They might not have expected a full scale war, but everyone with a little common sense knew Russia couldnt let Ukraine be stable and take 1/3rd of their gas and oil market. We just expected they'd consolidate the 3 regions at start and then ask for peace. Them attacking directly for Kyiv and the entire Ukraine was what tipped the balance for the West to support more and what broke the neck of the Russian armed forces.
@@StefanHundhammer Its a stupid question because everyone is prepared for it. This is litearlly the main defence strategy of european NATO, defending eastern europe against Russia. And the obvious answer is no, they have zero chance. Russia cant even defeat while comitting its entire army on Ukraine, which is a less trained army mostly relying on soviet stocks and western surplus goods. Wagners prison armies and second hand trash are even less relevant. And mind, if Russia attacks NATO, then both weapons have nukes, even if nobody uses them. So when Russia tries to waste warsaw with artillery like they tried with Kiev, then theyll get a tenfold retribution towards Moscow and St Petersburg. They cant go "we have nukes and you dont, so you better dont shoot back too hard or we genocide you".
@@StefanHundhammer It's definitely a stupid question. Just because you don't understand the reasons for the Ukrainian invasion, doesn't mean Putins going to randomly attack every country.
I also do not believe that Wagner will attack Poland. It will be just like when Wagner together with other combined forces, tried to attack American special forces and Kurdish soldiers in Syria a few years ago. There it was well known that enemy forces were gathering for an attack, but the special forces waited until bandits went to attack, and then Wagner and co were completely wiped out. The Russians denied knowing anything about it until the losses became enormous.
I seem to remember that the US forces pretty much eliminated those Wagnerites in that incident in Syria. One interpretation of this was that since the Wagner troops were Russians, the US actually attacked a Russian unit, though it was nominally not Russian.
Before the marchnto Moscow Wagner was the best trained/equipped force in Russia BY FAR, they had T90 and T14s, modern anti air that’s how they killed 12 Russian pilots/6 aircraft that were targeting them
When USA defended the oil field in Syria and killed 200-300 Russians it was a fire team company which only had rifles vs the USA Air Force with B52s, F16s, HIMARS, C130 gun ships…….. total mis match
@@rbstevns1534 yeah and he forgot that fact that the best combat ready Ukrainian regiments disappeared in Bakhmut's "black hole" because of these "boys with showels".
I met a very left leaning Polish Buddhist who surprised when he told me that he refused to speak Russian because it was an “an enemy language.” So I agree the Poles will go all in against the Warners any other Russians or the Belarusian army.
Russian is spoken in many other countries as a second language among millions of other nationalities. Does it automatically make those people as his enemy? Or does the language itself make him uncomfortable? I think he's just immature to say the least. He doesn't even know the fact that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers use Russian as their first language.
Lukashenko needed Russia's help to stay in power after his last "election", the people certainly weren't believing he won. Reports are that he is afraid to deploy Belarussian troops because he needs them to suppress a revolt. If NATO had some targeted strikes and minimized civilian losses, Lukashenko may be the one with no friends on the ground.
It'd be like the battle of Khasham. But they'll need to publicize the videos of it so that the rest of the Wagner forces know what really happened. After Khasham, another group of Wagners wanted to try the exact same thing some months later. Likely because there were not many survivors of the first attack, the event want supressed in Russian media, and not publicized in western media either.
@@RedbadvanRijn-ft3vv I think if Poland is going to invade Belarus they will liberate Belarus and install the opposition leader which won the election. But this is highly unlikely.
The third option, of course, is to mock it, draw them a picture so that they understand which side of the border is theirs and send them a new map to make sure they remember.
Fascinating and insightful as always, thanks so much for taking the time. It's almost too much to hope for: Wagner taking another run at Moscow.... I love the idea, personally.
You should be careful what you wish for, Putin is a bastard but he is at least smart enough to know that Russia can't have a major war many of the nationalists who would be fighting to replace him aren't that smart and the civil war that could easily erupt if Putin is removed could be a global disaster.
Im Polish. Unfortunatelly wagner is not going to attack Poland. Big pity because that would be Fantastic target practice with all the equipment and AirPower we have now…
"...force to go beyond ambiguity." -- I don't believe people understands how clean, tidy and smart that is. It deprives Putin from his favorite, murky playground. -- In a way put flood lights on it.
Regarding helicopters, there are special procedures and regulations in international law for such situations, and there are also certain customs. Unless there is a war, manned air vehicles are generally not shot down, warnings are given and they are forced to turn over their own territory. Such games have been played by Russia with NATO in Europe and over the Bering Strait for decades. On the other hand, the increasingly openly aggressive attitude of Belarus is worrying.
There's no need to be sensational. Everyone knows that the Wagnerians will not attack Poland (unless they want to cease to exist in a few hours). They can, however, support Belarus in a hybrid war (attempts to cross the Polish border by illegal immigrants brought and pushed to the other side by Belarusian guards). The Wagnerians are being prepared to go to Africa, and for the time being they are also used to blackmail Lukashenko, who has recently become too expansive in Russia and some say that he will replace Putin).
"The population would be against them". I think that might be the understatement of the year.
Wagner might have to be rescued from the locals by the Polish army….
Why? Do you think there would be support for russians like in lns/dnr?
@@pukacz80On the contrary 😊
If Wagner enters a full scale war with NATO, they will be legitimate targets in Africa as well.
Sure, were waiting them with Bread and Salt xDDDDD
Wagner is in Belarus to wait out the old guy in Moscow. When he falls out the window Prigozhin will have a significant force to negotiate his position in the new system. The threats on Poland etc... are just smoke and mirrors
Yep Prigozhib and Lukanhesko getting revenge over ailing Vlad…
Less "smoke and mirrors" and more "free brownie points with the ultranationalists / nazis in russia".
Hes trying to prepare his constituency ... still bonkers that he has not been executed (windowed) by now.
@@timtrinier4448we can only hope
If I were lukashenko, I'd stay clear of open windows too.
@@kimwit1307 like closed ones are a problem XD
You always give such healthy and calm perspectives to the happenings. Thank you!
Eller som vi säger I Sverige - Tusen tack! ☺
The fact people and even many journalists couldn’t figure out these answers for themselves shows education systems are failing worldwide.
Anders, your videos really calm me down. Truly a voice of reason. Cheers from Poland.
Kind of sad you couldn’t figure this out for yourself.
@@The_ZeroLine I agree. Unfortunately most of our population here in Poland aren't used to thinking on their own.
Why are you scared?
You are the first to fight against Russia, and sanctions, and everything, you are the loudest in Europe.
Why are you scare then?
Anders, you have great sense of reason and calm objective and analytical perspectives on these situations. As a fellow dane I cant help feeling a little proud to see a countryman like you sharing your valuable insights with us. Håber du får en dejlig weekend! :)
The best mentor I ever subscribe in TH-cam.. Specially in such topic. Hats off ❤
Superb analysis thank you
Don't worry about long video.. You are like a diamond 💎 hard to break haha.. Keep it up Sir 👌👌🙏
I love your way of getting the next level of assumptions in to the debat, as example why the Wagner soldiers are placed at the Polish boarder, to be as long away from Russia as possible !
Glad to see You in T shirts again. Keep up the Good Work. Very concise easy to understand. Thanks
If Wagner made any moves in Poland, not only would the Polish military respond forcefully but the civilian population would also react to an 'invasion' by Russians backed with a German name - memories of WW II and communist domination have not gone away.
Wagner would be f*cked ASAP
It will also end up triggering Article 5 of the NATO Charter.
@@Not-a-GSDArticle 5 does not guarantee support from other NATO members, the big danger is if Poland or the Balts tried to cut off access to Kaliningrad, that would really be poking the bear. They would be on their own for certain.
@@rich11a15 Once Russia has been defeated and removed from all Ukrainian territory they need to be thrown out of Kaliningrad which should be returned to Poland. Russia needs to be weakened for a generation to protect Europe from Russia’s perpetual aggression towards its neighbours.
@@jonathanbarrett1708 They need to be broken, WW2-Germany style. Not just isolated and humiliated because all that will achieve is they'll become a Chinese client state. They must be forcibly broken away from China, the oligarchs and putin's inner circle need to cease to exist and the country rebuild as a proper democracy after being shown just how perilously close putin brought them to utter destruction so they become like Germany putting military readiness so far down on priorities that the line between action and being destroyed blurred.
Thank you.
Option 3: Large air cannon and frozen chickens. Next helicopter to cross the border gets a birdstrike.
Frozen geese. Chickens would be tricky to explain at that height. 😳
LMAO
@@paulneilson4106You, Sir, are a very careful plotter XDXDXD
@@paulneilson4106 LOL
@@paulneilson4106 HAHA! You made my day! 🤣
Som vanligt intressant och tydligt från superdansken 🇩🇰, tack från 🇸🇪
Varför super dansken?
@@johanmetreus1268 😁 inget mellanrum ska’ re va vettu
@@k66a865 mellanrummet är hela skillnaden mellan en sjuk sköterska och sjuksköterskan som tar hand om henne ;)
@@johanmetreus1268 👌
@@johanmetreus1268 korrigering ✅
Thank you! Still on Holiday, Yeah! enjoy
Thank you, Anders. 👍😎
Thanks for the great analysis!
Overall I'm pretty impressed by Prigozhin. The wily bastard is getting out of some tight spots, likely controls the key to Russia's foreign policy in Africa, and is looking like perhaps the most competent/media savvy leader in Russia's group of contenders. He seems like a dangerous man to underestimate.
Your right, NikNak also has given the west an opening to make contact, but did they??
It's funny how the potty mouth chef turns up in Russia like for the African "meet and greet" though and other visits, obviously because Putin "asked" him to be there, it's a very Russian "in fight" at present, meanwhile Putin's military are being purged, Wagner has been absorbed into the Russian military in Russia and the rest shoved into Belarus as a bad fit, the African arm is undergoing a management change and the military blogger's are being dissuaded from being critical by the Chief blogger's impending prison sentence which will be for a very long time. Everything points to Putin being under some sort of pressure but his "Moscow" enemies have not shown themselves as yet, although the rumour is they will collapse things by doing things badly, and that will be difficult to gauge because that has been in evidence during the entirety of the illegal invasion!?!
Criminal mind!
In other words: the old hotdog salesman is not the stupidest war criminal in Russia today.
It's a Darwinian thing. Anyone near the levers of power who is still alive is, by definition, smart and resourceful.
I really appreciate your sober and thoughtful assessment.
-Is Wagner going to attack Poland?
-Maybe. But he'll have to deal with Chopin then.
It's going to be a complete Gotterdamerung for Wagner.
I saw what you did there 😂
There would be a lot of Chopin i imagine
@@Confucius_Says... Not necessarily, Chopin's Bach may be worse than it's bite
@@bradevans7935 I'll see your Ride of the Valkyries and raise you The Ride of Winged Hussars...
Another excellent assessment of the situation. I'm looking forward to seeing the next one.👍
High quality reporting as always. Incredible understanding of such complex situations. Truly worth the subscription. Thank you.
Excellent timing! My faith in your content is big enough to forward it to my dutch and english readers, even before watching it myself. Wich i will do now...
Thank you for your analysis!
Thats was a whole bunch of interesting and thought-provoking ideas. Great video! Great analysis!
Anders is the best. He's unbiased, the most knowledgeable, thorough. We're all blessed to have access to have access to his expertise.
Tak for din video Anders. Thanks for the video Anders, it makes sense, even to me.
what a drama filled with plot twists and drama... Thank you for the perspective
Brilliant content. Thanks for sharing!
Very interesting, Anders, Thank You! You really help to dispel the fog of war!
Very levelheaded based in reality.
Why you don't have a million subscribers is beyond my understanding. Your analysis has always been on point concerning this conflict and is appreciated. Thank you for a dispassionate look at the miasma that is the Ukraine-Russia war. My days go back to the Fulda Gap through Kosovo, Iraq 2 and Afghanistan. It's supremely important to have timely, accurate intel, so thank you for what you do. Write the book on this little circus we have on our hands.
Thank you for your time and insights 👍🇺🇦🇦🇺🐨
Another excellent video. Thank you for sharing and enlightening us. 🇺🇦
Appreciate your work.
Just because something would make no sense at all doing doesn't convince me in the slightest that russia, belarus and/or wagner wouldn't do it
@@bobbytookalook People really misunderstand the whole rational actor thing, even politicians.
Rational does not mean they access risk, consequences, worth , and situation the same way. Also everybody does not have the same access and scope of information.
Yep. "Realpolitik", "rationality" frequently assumes that an adversary minds works the same as ours.
In case of Western people thinking of Russians this is a grave mistake.
Thank you! Great analysis as usual...
Thank you Anders, I really needed a good explanation about the whole situation with Wagner and Poland because it didn't make much sense to me. Now it does!
Thanks again.
Extremely educational and interesting. It so rarely goes together.
Your content is destination-viewing for me! Thank you for the clear, sober, well-researched analysis.
This week I was on vacation north of Suwalki, near the border. Beautiful place, very peaceful and the best option is to ignore all this fear mongering. Polish forces and especially the population will not let any dumb thing to happen.
Good znalysis. Lets hope the adversary is acting as logical as we hope.
Poland has really stepped up for Ukraine.
Thank you for the great video.
Very, very good analysis. Keep it up.👍
Your talks are very informative and insightful. Thank you.
You always cut straight through to the point. One of the clearest voices for this conflict.
Very insightful .
Hi Anders,
Thank you.
Always clear precise logical thoughts on this current issue.
I guess a better picture may present itself as each month passes.
Great posts
Nice video, really enjoy listening to your insights 👍🇦🇺
I have the greatest respect for Poland, they have taken one for team
NATO, and peace.
NATO does not mean peace, it means war.
I always find your insight and analysis very interesting thanks.
Of all the posts that I listen to. Yours is the one I look forward to listening to the most.
Clear and concise.
What is Russia playing at?
You can't write this stuff. It's ridiculous what they are doing!
Thanks.
Not at all. Get someone else to distract the enemy at no cost to yourself.
Great perspectives.
To anyone who has stumbled on this channel accidentally or casually, and is wondering, allow me to say that whenever Anders publishes a video on TH-cam, I immediately watch it. There are very few other channels that make me do this. In other words, to me, this channel is essential watching!
Totally agree
100% agree. I am fully supportive of Ukraine (hence my avatar) and I could watch a dozen other channels that make me nod in agreement. But Ander's channel is like a repository for strategic and political thinking that I would watch if he were discussing ANY international conflict. It just so happens that is area of expertise aligns with my interest. He a sober... balance... and surprisingly cheerful voice among the pundits. Indeed, his analysis does make the conflict seem more like a breakdown of the football match, which I both like and find slightly surreal.
Me too - I think one of the other good channels I watch recommended him a while back. Anders is one of my regular staples for information on the illegal invasion.
His analysis, reporting and presentation are always superb. The production quality is spot on considering how quickly he gets it posted.
Yes, smash the like button immediatly!!
It's really insightful. He, along with Jake Broe are doing great. Many of Jake's predictions were correct.
Always a pleasure to hear your view on things!
Virginia 🇺🇸👍🇺🇦💪
Congratulations for the best political analysis
Great video!
Great analysis! The immediate action is Hybrid Warfare. Polish Immigration Control expenses have skyrocketed and keep growing since the migrant chess game started by Putin 3 years ago as he was simultaneously putting the troops along the Ukrainian Borders. TVP Poland, which is in English, shows clips of Africans sawing through the metal bars of the fence.
They fly migrants in from Africa to try to get into Poland and then the migrants ask for asylum. They assume some will get past the border guards. Some are simply posing as migrants but are supplied with cash and underground contacts. They want to disrupt the rail and roads into Ukraine to disrupt the supply chain of weapons and aid. Poland is constantly finding spies and saboteurs around the munition crates, military bases, and other sensitive facilities.
The little green men ultimately sow civil disagreement as citizens and the EU debate treatment of migrants. The little green men are just like Hitler’s planted Germans in the Sudetenland prior to WWII. Look up Green Case from the 1930s some time. Centuries of peace in Silesia was disrupted when ethnic Germans, who had been living in peace with the Poles and Czechs in Silesia, started complaining that they weren't treated fairly.
So all this Wagner stuff could be, probably is, just a stint to defocus Poland and NATO.
Time to get over the African sob story. Hungary showed that meeting border jumpers with bullets puts an immediate STOP to that nonsense.
Real world Rule #1, you only own what you are willing to protect.
Think your videos are always worth watching Anders. Also like the more informal settings :)
Surely the Suwalki Gap is one of the most heavily surveilled regions on Earth? How could any movement across any of the borders possibly go unnoticed? In which case, Wagner can't pull a "little gray men" move because everyone will see them coming. Literally.
Poland has already moved troops to the area. Any surprise would be short lived.
@@hb1338 The only surprise will be on the Wagner faces when they see the Poles grinning from ear to ear as they open up every single can of whoop-ass they have at their disposal.
Great analysis.
Expecting Russia to get any kind of support in Poland is laughable. Also expecting Poland to back down from supporting Ukraine if attacked by Wagner is also quite silly. If anything Poland would probably provide more support.
Two outdoor videos in a row 👍
Might be a good time for a joint NATO exercise in Poland. Ya know, the full combined arms type exercise. Armor, AFV, HiMars, Attack Helos, Fighters, Bombers, A-10s, drones, cruise missiles pretty much everything NATO has at hand. Let Wagner know that an attack on Poland would be 10x worse than what they experienced in Ukraine. And let Lukashenko worry about a regime change in Belarus. Might even affect their willingness to continue support of Russias war in Ukraine. If they had any sense.
Thanks for the video, I appreciate your insight and balanced calculated views rather than some of the other 'pundits' videos here on youtube.
I love this channel. Greetings from Romania.
I could see Putin deciding losing to NATO would be less humiliating than losing to Ukraine.
Also he would get his war against NATO. The order of who attacked whom doesn't really matter anyway.
Insane, but then again many of russias actions generally are...
@@mtmadigan82 He doesn't have to convince us just his people.
Good point it’s a face saving technique to say nato beat him potentially.
In his sober moments, Putin must know that he will not survive a defeat (by anyone). It is already extremely bad for him to be in a stalemate with Ukraine.
Thank you Mr Jensen!👏👏👏
You give us unusually clear analyses of the situation. They are by far the sharpest interpretations of the situation to be found anywhere. Thank you so much for your contrbutions.
Great video, you and Perun are the two chanels I wait most.
Interestingly Hriato Grozev (you know the guy that help find the killers of Navalni ) also believe that Prigozhin will eithe day or will make new attemt in the next 6 months.
I do think it is extremely unlikely it would occur. I'd pose what was the original premise of the Wagner mutiny? Ammo and disgust with Shoigu and Gerasimov. Those 100 dudes, mercenaries might have just drove up to that place to get some ammo and refit. With the understanding there is a redemptive path for both Belarus and Russia, now go back to your land and carry out these redemptive missions... Excellent Video Content = Puck
Redemptive missions seem to be going cold...
Very informative, thank you! 🥇
Very good analysis as always
Yep 👍🏻! This assessment is one of the more believable versions I have heard.
Thanks mate 🎉👍🏻
Once in a while, a serious analyst has to deal with a stupid question. Well done, as always.
2 years ago no one would have thought that Putin would ever be stupid enough to invade Ukraine, not such a stupid question.
All media anti nato sentiments indicate soon a future war. European countries need to mobilise and deploy a 5 million man army on Russias border to escalate this war sooner than later
@@cherrydestroyer1717 well, NATO has been preparing Ukranian soldiers since 2014 for this. They might not have expected a full scale war, but everyone with a little common sense knew Russia couldnt let Ukraine be stable and take 1/3rd of their gas and oil market. We just expected they'd consolidate the 3 regions at start and then ask for peace. Them attacking directly for Kyiv and the entire Ukraine was what tipped the balance for the West to support more and what broke the neck of the Russian armed forces.
@@StefanHundhammer Its a stupid question because everyone is prepared for it. This is litearlly the main defence strategy of european NATO, defending eastern europe against Russia.
And the obvious answer is no, they have zero chance. Russia cant even defeat while comitting its entire army on Ukraine, which is a less trained army mostly relying on soviet stocks and western surplus goods. Wagners prison armies and second hand trash are even less relevant.
And mind, if Russia attacks NATO, then both weapons have nukes, even if nobody uses them. So when Russia tries to waste warsaw with artillery like they tried with Kiev, then theyll get a tenfold retribution towards Moscow and St Petersburg. They cant go "we have nukes and you dont, so you better dont shoot back too hard or we genocide you".
@@StefanHundhammer It's definitely a stupid question. Just because you don't understand the reasons for the Ukrainian invasion, doesn't mean Putins going to randomly attack every country.
I love your work :) Thanks for it.
I also do not believe that Wagner will attack Poland. It will be just like when Wagner together with other combined forces, tried to attack American special forces and Kurdish soldiers in Syria a few years ago. There it was well known that enemy forces were gathering for an attack, but the special forces waited until bandits went to attack, and then Wagner and co were completely wiped out. The Russians denied knowing anything about it until the losses became enormous.
I seem to remember that the US forces pretty much eliminated those Wagnerites in that incident in Syria. One interpretation of this was that since the Wagner troops were Russians, the US actually attacked a Russian unit, though it was nominally not Russian.
CNN told you that?
Before the marchnto Moscow Wagner was the best trained/equipped force in Russia BY FAR, they had T90 and T14s, modern anti air that’s how they killed 12 Russian pilots/6 aircraft that were targeting them
When USA defended the oil field in Syria and killed 200-300 Russians it was a fire team company which only had rifles vs the USA Air Force with B52s, F16s, HIMARS, C130 gun ships…….. total mis match
@@rbstevns1534 yeah and he forgot that fact that the best combat ready Ukrainian regiments disappeared in Bakhmut's "black hole" because of these "boys with showels".
Thanks Anders. Level headed as usual, important information in these times!
I met a very left leaning Polish Buddhist who surprised when he told me that he refused to speak Russian because it was an “an enemy language.” So I agree the Poles will go all in against the Warners any other Russians or the Belarusian army.
It's just a common sense. Nothing good ever came to Poland from Russia's side. Unless you count Chekhov's dramas, of course.
Russian is spoken in many other countries as a second language among millions of other nationalities. Does it automatically make those people as his enemy? Or does the language itself make him uncomfortable? I think he's just immature to say the least. He doesn't even know the fact that thousands of Ukrainian soldiers use Russian as their first language.
I found the video helpful and interesting. Thank you Anders!
Glad to hear that! :-)
No, ofc not. At least not in conventional sense. Belarus vs NATO isnt even a fight and by extension Russia vs NATO isnt a thing Putin is looking for.
Lukashenko needed Russia's help to stay in power after his last "election", the people certainly weren't believing he won. Reports are that he is afraid to deploy Belarussian troops because he needs them to suppress a revolt.
If NATO had some targeted strikes and minimized civilian losses, Lukashenko may be the one with no friends on the ground.
Thank you very much for your high quality analysis! My best wishes!
Poland will pulverise Wagner
And take Belarus as there new province.
Putin,the Russian leader without an army.
Wel he could have some Berserkers hahahahhaha
Maybe they want to die? They are ruzzkies afterall. Seems like it's something they like to do.
It'd be like the battle of Khasham. But they'll need to publicize the videos of it so that the rest of the Wagner forces know what really happened. After Khasham, another group of Wagners wanted to try the exact same thing some months later. Likely because there were not many survivors of the first attack, the event want supressed in Russian media, and not publicized in western media either.
I suspect the Polish military is secretly sending Wagner "I double dare you!" messages.
@@RedbadvanRijn-ft3vv I think if Poland is going to invade Belarus they will liberate Belarus and install the opposition leader which won the election. But this is highly unlikely.
Yeaaaaa....you're back!
The third option, of course, is to mock it, draw them a picture so that they understand which side of the border is theirs and send them a new map to make sure they remember.
Very unbiased inteliigent analysis
Fascinating and insightful as always, thanks so much for taking the time.
It's almost too much to hope for: Wagner taking another run at Moscow.... I love the idea, personally.
You should be careful what you wish for, Putin is a bastard but he is at least smart enough to know that Russia can't have a major war many of the nationalists who would be fighting to replace him aren't that smart and the civil war that could easily erupt if Putin is removed could be a global disaster.
Well, they could take Königsberg and make it an independent Wagnerland.
@@Germa4945 If they tried that, they would have Poland, Lithuania and the rest of NATO helping them out.
Great breakdown. Again!
Always very interesting - of course its the correct response. Set the limits in advance and engage fully if triggered.
Thank you so much for your commentary… trusting your opinion, keep up the good work
Im Polish. Unfortunatelly wagner is not going to attack Poland. Big pity because that would be Fantastic target practice with all the equipment and AirPower we have now…
Czechia recently received first Vipers from USA. It would be a nice opportunity for us to test them thoroughly.
So you're happy if an armed group of people would enter your country and cause a massacre with probably innocent civilian and military deaths?
Thanks
"...force to go beyond ambiguity." -- I don't believe people understands how clean, tidy and smart that is. It deprives Putin from his favorite, murky playground. -- In a way put flood lights on it.
Thank you Anders for your calm analysis.
Regarding helicopters, there are special procedures and regulations in international law for such situations, and there are also certain customs. Unless there is a war, manned air vehicles are generally not shot down, warnings are given and they are forced to turn over their own territory. Such games have been played by Russia with NATO in Europe and over the Bering Strait for decades. On the other hand, the increasingly openly aggressive attitude of Belarus is worrying.
I find reading the comments of your audience as entertaining as any content on TH-cam. It must be the caliber of your viewers.
No. Thank you for listening to my TED Talk.
Thanks for the analysis
There's no need to be sensational. Everyone knows that the Wagnerians will not attack Poland (unless they want to cease to exist in a few hours). They can, however, support Belarus in a hybrid war (attempts to cross the Polish border by illegal immigrants brought and pushed to the other side by Belarusian guards). The Wagnerians are being prepared to go to Africa, and for the time being they are also used to blackmail Lukashenko, who has recently become too expansive in Russia and some say that he will replace Putin).