Data Update 2 for 2025: The Party Continued for US Equities

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 ม.ค. 2025

ความคิดเห็น • 84

  • @marcwarburton7007
    @marcwarburton7007 23 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +7

    Sir, you are a national treasure. I forbid you to ever retire.

  • @anthonyle8581
    @anthonyle8581 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +7

    thank you so much professor. The most concrete approach I have ever been introduced in valuation

  • @larryhailu
    @larryhailu 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +4

    thank you professor for sharing your knowledge!

  • @alexanderpetrov2514
    @alexanderpetrov2514 17 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +2

    Thank you, professor Damodaran! What would the calculations on SP500 be, if we exclude its top 10 companies? Would that show us signs of undervaluation in the sp500 index?

  • @PrasantCroissant
    @PrasantCroissant 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Thank you professor! Beautiful video to shed light on different ways and tools to look at the market. I loved both parts ❤
    I actually felt you went quite fast on the tools and values used and assumptions. But when I paused the video to read through the numbers and annotations, I was able to better understand what was going on.

  • @SandeepKumar-nk2ru
    @SandeepKumar-nk2ru วันที่ผ่านมา

    I wish you were my teacher when I was doing college. Thank you so much sir!

  • @KodierungHerz
    @KodierungHerz วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Jesus christ this amazing man is giving us for free invaluable information

  • @ZThePursuit
    @ZThePursuit 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

    Thank you as always professor, these tools and insights are invaluable to me

  • @Oishiilicious
    @Oishiilicious วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Thanks a lot for the video! This is very valuable information. I love the idea to use MC to get a feeling forthe distributions and correlations, brilliant stuff.

  • @tristanirwin4600
    @tristanirwin4600 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Your the best. Very thoughtful and insightful perspective. Thank you for sharing ❤

  • @jiming7
    @jiming7 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you Prof!! I learn a lot from your lectures.

  • @changhyungo6784
    @changhyungo6784 8 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks for your analysis and great video

  • @Alexey.Belousov
    @Alexey.Belousov วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks so much, professor! Extremely helpful and very appreciated!!

  • @cotedan
    @cotedan 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    The CAPE ratio is adjusted for inflation. To maintain consistency in accounting for inflation, would it be better to use the 10-year TIPS when calculating the spread between the inverse CAPE ratio and the risk-free rate, instead of using the 10-year Treasury bond?

  • @hugoruzicka6035
    @hugoruzicka6035 9 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    Great video, thank you very much.
    Wasn't the 10y treasury a bit higher?

    • @hugoruzicka6035
      @hugoruzicka6035 9 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      I see it know:)

  • @ElonMuskX2006
    @ElonMuskX2006 17 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

  • @FlyingFlaneur
    @FlyingFlaneur วันที่ผ่านมา

    Aswath always makes my brain explode.

  • @PRAVEENMARUTHURMANA
    @PRAVEENMARUTHURMANA 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thank you so much sir!

  • @elazar997
    @elazar997 13 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    You are gold 🥇

  • @prasad_sawant
    @prasad_sawant 14 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    Hi Prof, thank you so much for the detailed video at the beginning of every year.
    Q. I am not sure about how we got expected earnings growth rate at 20.8% for 2025 in the slide - "Valuing the S&P500" could you please explain how do we get this number
    I got confused because we are using analyst forecast and in slide with 'implied ERP calculation on Jan 1, 2025' - we have earnings for 2024 and 2025 as 243.32 and 266.52 respectively.

  • @Pesky2024
    @Pesky2024 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Thanks Professor for the insights, wonder how the outcomes of this framework will be, when applied to different market segmentation of Large, mid and small cap category stocks individually will be ???

  • @elazar997
    @elazar997 22 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    thank you professor appreciate that

  • @amytuttle1621
    @amytuttle1621 วันที่ผ่านมา +21

    Don't simply retire from something; have something to retire to. Start saving, keep saving, and stick to investments. Building wealth involves establishing routines, like consistently setting aside funds at regular intervals for smart investments.

    • @quantarrow
      @quantarrow วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      It’s really heartbreaking to see how inflation and recession impact low-income families. The cost of living keeps rising, and many struggle just to meet basic needs, let alone save or invest. It’s a reminder of the importance of finding ways to create financial opportunities. You've helped me a lot sir Robert! Imagine i invested $50,000 and received $190,500 after 14 days

    • @IshrakHossain-rt8is
      @IshrakHossain-rt8is วันที่ผ่านมา

      Absolutely! Profits are possible, especially now, but complex transactions should be handled by experienced market professionals.

    • @KaylaAnn11896
      @KaylaAnn11896 วันที่ผ่านมา

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    • @ufuksenol2005
      @ufuksenol2005 วันที่ผ่านมา

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    • @PineHosting
      @PineHosting วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Cox demonstrates an excellent understanding of market trends, making well informed decisions that leads to consistent profit

  • @haiyang1000
    @haiyang1000 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    5262 means market at 6000 is 14% overpriced

  • @josephchoi417
    @josephchoi417 วันที่ผ่านมา

    ❤ my legend

  • @hristokolev9857
    @hristokolev9857 วันที่ผ่านมา

    What is ERP?

  • @Diego_Alcantara
    @Diego_Alcantara 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    King Professor

  • @tanyabischoff
    @tanyabischoff 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +72

    I used to think it was just about buying stocks, but I didn’t realize there are strategies for managing risk and actually making a profit. Now I feel kinda stuck since I’m not seeing any gains in my portfolio. Do you have any recommendations on what I should consider? I’d really appreciate it!

    • @garnold-l5p
      @garnold-l5p 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      It's not just about having money to invest in stocks; it's about knowing the right strategies for profit and managing risk. That's why working with an investment advisor is important-they have insights not available to everyone.

    • @Mlanderos-t9e
      @Mlanderos-t9e 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

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      @StephenRobello 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

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      @Mlanderos-t9e 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

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      @StephenRobello 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

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  • @Annette_Lisa
    @Annette_Lisa วันที่ผ่านมา +10

    Basically, I just made my first $300,000 in crypto trading. years of grinding, pivoting and failure, ideas not working out multiple consecutive times, depression, anxiety... but oh man once I saw the balance was over 300,000 - it really made it clear that all those years were worth it and has paid off. Looking forward to achieving financial freedom soon. And by the way, awesome content!

    • @burnsie3326
      @burnsie3326 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Absolutely. It's an exciting time to be in crypto. Strap in and enjoy the journey.

    • @DannielleRosales
      @DannielleRosales วันที่ผ่านมา

      Congratulations, do you mind sharing how you did it...

    • @Annette_Lisa
      @Annette_Lisa วันที่ผ่านมา

      Can't share much here, I take guidance from ‘Evelyn Infurna’ a renowned figure in her industry with over two decades of work experience. I'd suggest you research her further on the web.

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      @DannielleRosales วันที่ผ่านมา

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      @BrianWilliam-m6l วันที่ผ่านมา

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  • @jcmce
    @jcmce วันที่ผ่านมา

    🙏🤜🤛

  • @kenthughes4396
    @kenthughes4396 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    CAPE is a joke. Among its biggest critics is Shiller’s friend Jeremy Siegel

  • @gray38
    @gray38 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +12

    Love the theory however it all depends on Analysts Growth Estimates - that is a huge assumption, don't you think? Can we have a video on the standard error of Analysts Growth Forecasts

    • @Bruusus
      @Bruusus 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      what other option do you suggest?

    • @FireEverLiving
      @FireEverLiving 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      To get an idea of the accuracy, you could go through the Prof's ERP spreadsheets, which go back 10+ years and contain analyst estimates for the succeeding few years. They're not particularly accurate, but like the previous commenter said, what else are you going to use?

    • @bobthebuilderhecanbuildit
      @bobthebuilderhecanbuildit 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Better to use nothing than a false prophet

    • @TheSwift87
      @TheSwift87 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      It’s an average of all estimates, extremes would be cancelled out.

    • @azacs
      @azacs 16 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      I feel like he may have touched on the accuracy of estimates previously.
      In any case, he's just providing a framework for looking at the value of an index. Download the spreadsheet and use a different number....no matter what picking an earning estimate for 500 companies is a daunting task.

  • @aarsethdiane853
    @aarsethdiane853 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +9

    Recently, I've been pondering retirement. I've also want to put $300K into the stock market now all thanks to Trump sucess in the election, but i need an approach that will align with my risk tolerance and financial goals to secure our future

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      @emmapriscilla6132 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.

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      @thomaswhiddon9124 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

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      @kimtreasa 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

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    • @kimtreasa
      @kimtreasa 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

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  • @pechkagaming5464
    @pechkagaming5464 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Thanks a lot! I have a question, are you going to present your views on this quantum computing drama, perhaps with valuation? I personally see this as a dumbest panic ever, there is undoubtedly a future in quantum field, what happened?

    • @michaeld3223
      @michaeld3223 2 วันที่ผ่านมา +2

      Those stocks are outside the realm of valuation and into the realm of speculation. If you are a longterm investor and believe in a company and the timeline the recent stock movements are irrelevant. All the valuation is about when the technology will be ready and what players will win. If you think 5 years and a certain company will win then I'm sure any math and assumptions of future value will support your investment because you will hit the jackpot and the current fluctuations won't even appear on a 5 year chart which will be a mountain. Or else you go bust....

  • @MyDreamside
    @MyDreamside 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Hi professor , you can take regressions for AAA corporate Bonds, BBB corporate Bonds and Junk Bonds with equity risk premius.I think equity risk premium should be about equal to junk bonds premium and 2 times the Baa corporate premium

    • @FireEverLiving
      @FireEverLiving วันที่ผ่านมา

      I've done a bit of analysis on that, but I decided that it wasn't useful. Firstly, owning a junk bond index is not the same as owning a lower-risk version of a market index, since you are owning liabilities of only the junkiest companies, who issue junk bonds. Major S&P 500 companies don't issue junk bonds. So you shouldn't use junk spreads to predict the non-junk market. Secondly, spreads seemed to me to be more a measure of sentiment than a source of info useful for prediction: similar to trying to figure out the ERP by taking a regression on the forward P/E.

  • @johnyjsl9219
    @johnyjsl9219 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

    So 80% chance market is overvalued and a 20% chance it is under. Caveat: there a variables that could be off or change.

    • @sergemoscovite2933
      @sergemoscovite2933 2 วันที่ผ่านมา

      But we don't know what professor did at the beginning of this year: that's the acid test of his reflection. At the end everyone should take his own decision. What is the professor's decision?