Are U.S. Sanctions on Russia Really Working?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.พ. 2024
- Sanctions have long been a favourite tool of foreign policy by the United States, to influence the behaviour of nations on the global stage. In recent years, Russia has found itself at the receiving end of various sanctions imposed by Western powers. The United States has threatened new or additional sanctions on Russia following the death of opposition politician Alexei Navalny. It is therefore apt to question whether or not the economic sanctions imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine have been effective. While some argue they represent a toothless response, others maintain they are inflicting significant damage on the Russian economy.
Examining the current impact of these sanctions requires a nuanced understanding of their effects.
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Peace and love all around the world. Thanks for posting sir
Thank you so much
Partly. But weakly because of less than possible enforcement. Enforcement is weak because it hurts the sanctioning countries' companies and ultimately therefore their economies.
Thank you for your comments
The true impact of the sanctions may lie beyond immediate economic indicators. The disruption to supply chains, the isolation from Western technology and expertise, and the reputational damage Russia has incurred will have long-term consequences. These could hamper economic growth, hinder technological advancement, and limit Russia's integration into the global economy for years to come. The sanctions have also sparked a wider geopolitical chess game. Russia has sought to forge closer ties with China and other non-Western powers, potentially altering global trade and investment patterns. Additionally, the sanctions have contributed to rising food and energy prices worldwide, impacting developing countries disproportionately and raising concerns about global economic stability.
As with everything economic and scientific, it is complex. Unlike many other countries, Russia has the industrial capacity, food capacity and natural resources to be self contained. So there always was a potential to snub the world and go it alone.
However, apart from the nuanced elements that you have already mentioned, there are three key factors that make it very difficult for Russia to maintain this approach "irrespective of sanctions", in the long term. These are demographics, technology and education.
Demographically, Russia is aging out of its own capacities to maintain a vibrant economy. It already had a poor birth rate, but additionally has a poor life expectancy. Furthermore, with potentially 1/2 a million casualties during this war (upper end of estimates, but likely to exceed this before it ends), and the loss of up to a million draftable knowledge workers (that fled the country), the capacity to have a restoring generation is quickly fading. This hits the future consumer base, making it difficult to restore the economy once peace does occur.
Technologically, Russia has been falling behind in recent decades. It's top-down political approach makes it difficult to have an entrepreneurial outlook among the population, therefore they are likely to fall further behind as time continues. This is one of the reasons that technology sanctions do work - they are unable to make the components necessary for modern warfare, so sourcing them in large numbers is tricky. Each of those sources could dry up as sanctions are policed better.
Finally education, Russia attempted to reduce its educational expenditure before USSR broke apart, and has never properly recovered. This means that a significant proportion of its technically educated workforce is aging out, both hitting retirement age and/or dying. This is another element that will hit their capacity to innovate, therefore their prospects of climbing out of their economic damage occurring now.
@@brendanh8193 Russia along with the rest of the soviet socialist republics failed, I expect the same again.
@@brendanh8193 Thank you for your comprehensive comment sharing your perspective on the issue, much appreciated.
Russia has lost nothing, as far at the war at most 50 thousand dead. Russia has the scientific technological industrial capacity to outlast the west. Russia with less than half the population of America, produces as STEAM graduates as America. Russia is in the top 5 of all strategic metals in the world, a truly self sufficient country. The real power in Europe.
Thank you for your comments