3 reasons why +EV betting didn’t work for you (and how to fix it)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 ก.ค. 2024
- +EV betting is a proven strategy to make money long term by betting on sports from a mathematical edge. However, it's not completely foolproof. Here are 3 reasons why +EV betting didn't work for you and how you can change it to make profit in 2024.
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Timestamps:
0:00 | Intro
1:30 | Tip 1
4:15 | Tip 2
6:40 | Tip 3
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been plus ev betting and been profitable for the majority of my time gambling, but just recently hit my worst runbad the moment april began. started the month at like a 6.5% lifetime ROI and have had it fall to 3.5% just in these 11 days. i know things should work out, but it’s interesting that it correlates with when i upped my unit size. i was pretty conservative and upped when i should have, but should i adjust back to what i was doing prior or keep things up? i noticed you mentioned both sides to that equation
I think we over simplify the concept of positive EV betting. This is not intended to just take every bet that’s good value. The goal is to try and place good bets that are likely to win. You can’t just take all the work out of it and think you’ll be profitable. If you take more favorable bets that yet offer good value (not always the best value, but good enough) you’ll see profits sooner and minimize cold streaks
you don’t necessarily need to take bets that are “likely to win” to be profitable. you can be profitable long term only taking underdog plays, you just need to properly manage bankroll (i.e. place smaller wagers on longer odds) and be ready to have some cold streaks. just because you lose way more bets than you win doesn’t mean you won’t be profitable
It’s all about math!
Yh for me it adjusting bankroll size as I switched from Arbitrage to EV and perhaps I didn't put much thought into the switch and also because I got greedy a bit but I was betting around 10-20% of my bank roll each bet and two really bad days and lost around £750 which left me with around £100 to work with, so try to manage that a bit better and remain patient.
well said: a once dimly lit room is now brighter and clearer; thank you
Hey man what is your favorite prizepicks bet? Do u do 6 flex, 5 flex, 4 power? Iv heard 6 flex has the best odds but idk if that’s true, also what if you don’t have plays to fill out 6?
This fully depends on the type of slip you're playing
4 man powers depending on the correlation build can be better ev than 6 mans
5/6 mans are the best for regular ev slips (bets that arent correlated with one another)
When in doubt, just play a 5/6 man!
I just find it hard to get down volume especially when I'm trying to keep market width
Yeah thats fair, what books do you have access to?
Thanks for the tips👍🏻
How much of your bankroll should you put out every day EV betting? 40-50%?
It depends on the value you're seeing that day. Sometimes I'll have more than 50% over lets say 70 bets, other days maybe there are less sports on or the value is not great and i only have 10% of my bankroll out on 15 bets
There must be a rule around the industry that any product must be $50 or more lol. Thanks for the video. Maybe one day we can find a product thats not $600 a year product for $100 bankroll bettors
Supply and demand my friend! You shouldn't be +EV betting if you only have $100, it's just not worth the time.
@@JuicedBets So for new bettors would you just recommended only focusing on Arbitrage and just keep compounding that money. Then when you reach around 500-1k. Start +EV betting?
@@rebarmelson I feel like this is a great idea just because it gets you familiar with how books work and you dont have the emotional up and down swings when just starting out. Arb is smooth and steady which is good for new bettors
Super cool video bro
Thanks bro!
I signed up for the discord how long does it take to get access
Hey bro, go to your whop orders, select Juiced Bets and then click claim discord access!
@@JuicedBets I figured it out thanks for responding
I went from 10k to 1.3k after 4 months of +ev betting. Ran 1/4 kelly with oddsjam recommended bet sizes
you lost 8.7k ?
Not used oddsjam but EV betting does work. If the service you are using is any good you should be able to set minimum ev above 3% and max odds to about 3.4. Too many people go for everything they can find to get 'volume' and thats just crap. if you are betting 1% picks at odds of 30 then your looking at months of negative variance. Other possibility id the servie is just shit and what they are saying is value actually isnt (again, if you go for value of less than 3% its a fair bet most of the stuff isnt actually value).
I'm very confused, you lost almost 90% of your bankroll ev betting and using 1/4th rec? I've personally never heard of this before...we're you over exposing your bets at all or can you explain your process more.
thank you helps alot
Thats awesome, we're happy it helped you out!
Question: I have my EV% set to 1.5%+. What non-vig odds should I be using? or should that not matter and only bet based on a certain EV%? Thanks!
Hey, i'm not totally understanding your question. Do you mean what should your min / max odds be?
So what backdoor available did oddsjam give to one button sports book now more &more can see you have that site open ?
im confused by your question, can you re ask?
what is your current bankroll for that income?
thats what im saying i thought i was doing something by putting in $200 lmao
$200 is def not enough
$10,000+
Does OddsJam devig with pinnacle player props and game totals
I'm not sure exactly what they use for their devig methods. I do think pinnacle plays a role though
What state are you located in?
Canada!
Whoa
❤
oh look another guy selling picks and a subscription
Yup😅😅
Haha, difference is that we actually win
bruh no matter how many tools yall use the player knows their beeting lines its all random if they want to give you the win they will if not they wont. results are random. I used ods jam for a full week lost every 6 pick WON MY FIRST 6 PICK WITH MY OWN PICKS INSTEAD OF USING "HELP"
You do you my friend! But when I make $60k in a year after making the change to +EV betting, it's hard for me to agree that it's "random"
New sub,great channel
Thanks for the sub!