Amazon ($AMZN) Stock the Buy of the Decade?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 18 เม.ย. 2023
- Amazon stock as lost $900 Billion in value during the recent market decline and is now the cheapest its been in 20 years!!! Follow me as I walk you though 20 years of amazon financials and forecast the future price, investment return. This is a comprehensive stock valuation model as a value based investor.
"Long ago, Ben Graham taught me that 'Price is what you pay; value is what you get.' Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down." - Warren Buffett
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All opinions expressed by Cameron Stewart at Rational Investing with Cameron Stewart, CFA or on Cashflowinvestingpro.com are solely Mr. Stewart’s opinions. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Mr. Stewart as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Mr. Stewart’s statements and opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Mr. Stewart does not guarantees any specific outcome or profit. You should be aware of the real risk of loss in following any strategy or investment discussed on this show. Strategies or investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than invested. Investments or strategies mentioned on this show may not be suitable for you. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. You must make an independent decision regarding investments or strategies mentioned on this show. Before acting on information on this show, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and strongly consider seeking advice from your own financial or investment adviser.
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Love your analysis videos, you have it down to a science.
Excellent video! Cheap cheap stock. I'm getting a PT of around $130s based on the following:
Their T5YR revenue CAGR is over 17% and T5YR adjusted operating income CAGR is 15.68%
If we look at a PEG ratio comparing the growth rate in adjusted operating income to the adjusted operating income multiple we get 11.75/15.68, or a PEG ratio of .749. With 10.242 Billion shares outstanding and $85.461 Billion in adjusted operating income, we get $8.34 in adjusted operating income per share TTM. If we use 15.68 [the growth rate] as our multiple and $8.34 as our multiplicand, we get a fair value on Amazon of $130.83 per share.
You are a real pro Cameron. Thank you 🙏🏻
This one is best you did in recent month, thanks a lot 😊
I hate how rational you are 😂! Thanks. I just sold my AMZN before that video😅.
The last time you analyzed Amazon was before the stock split. Reminds me to stop being so bullish on one stock. I highly value your opinion and give it a good!
Thank you for the video. I think that there are some qualitative issues which suggest that AMZN may do even better than you suggest. First of all, the two fastest growing parts of the business - AWS and Advertising - are higher margin and produce much higher rates of cash flow than the retail business. Second, AMZN has been building out its infrastructure at a furious rate. Once each country's infrastructure is built out - capex per revenue in that country will decline and probably fairly sharply. This means that free cash flow should grow fairly rapidly even as revenue growth declines.
Thank you again for your thoughtful video.
This is crazy good Cameron. Love you analysis. Puts numbers in right context.
Saved for studying. Thanks so much. And I will pretty sure go for the course afterwards. Thanks
Great video. Pure quality, thanks for this
Great analysis! Thank you, Cameron. One of the best channels on TH-cam! Wondering what you think of Nucor? Would love to see you do an analysis of Nucor someday. All the best!
Thank you for your explanation of EV. Very useful. I like the analogy to buying a house.
Excellent breakdown, thank you! Amazon is by far my biggest position so I liked it already, but it's great to know that you're analysis has reached the same conclusion.
Me too, how many shares?
Awesome man thanks!!
Best educational video I have seen about how to read financials. Thanks for sharing.
Great video as always. You know it will be a good video when that shirt comes out. I personally think AMZN is a bit expensive still here. I have shares but i would be more comfortable adding at around $80. Let's see what their Q1 earnings do.
Excellent presentation. Thank you. I just bought today....
That EV/EBITA graph you show is really eye opening.
Excellent! Very clear explanation!
Bought today at 102.90 starter position, hope it drops a lot more
Good stuff thank you!!
Brilliant, thanks Cameron !
38:05 🍕 🍕 🍕 Domino's is a win in retrospect...wish I had purchased that one too 💯👏🏿
Thank you!
27:34 - 27:47 Good to know, thank you 😊 🙏🏿 ☺️
Awesome video Cameron! Would be awesome to see an update on Alphabet next :)
Amazing video
You're a wealth of knowledge.
Fantastic materials!
that 15:48 barney legendary was smooth 😂😂😂😂
Always like an AMZN vid 💥
Great content.....
Was supposed to be a 20 mins video! Lol. Thanks man, I enjoy these
Hahahah.
Shorter videos are hard to do. It's actually easier to do longer videos. Cutting a video down to barebones for TH-cam is extremely hard.
2x the playback :D
Comment for the algorithm, top analysis again!
Thanks for sharing ❤
Hey Cameron. Great video, as always. Would you consider doing an analysis of DISH?
The network's share price has fallen over 60% YTD to 24-year lows due to external threats, such as a major security breach/hack and continued cybersecurity fears. However, Revenue and Profit have still remained strong. They do have a large amount of debt, similar to most companies in the Telecom sector, but this is a consequence of developing infrastructure across the US which acts as a tremendous barrier of entry for competitors. I am a shareholder of Charter Communications stock, and have been eyeing DISH over the past few months. Would love to know your thoughts and see you dissect Dish Network's financials.
I'm going to talk about DISH on my Channel next week. Keep an eye there :)
Great video.
Great stuff
Market capitalization value is nearly always greater than equity value since investors figure in factors such as a company's expected future earnings from growth and expansion. It can be helpful to make a historical comparison between market capitalization value and equity value to see if there is a trend one way or the other.
Hey Cameron, I may have missed it but if not would you consider doing one for Tesla?
Thank you, I bought 30 shares of Amazon after reviewing and watching your take… hoping for 100 before July! Fingers crossed it skyrockets 🤣
U r right, this is actually once in a lifetime deal!
Wow, congratulations.
*I began my investment journey at the age of 27, primarily through hard work and dedication. I am to share that my passive income exceeded $100k in a single month for the first time. This success reinforces the importance of the advice mentioned earlier. It is not about achieving quick wealth, but rather ensuring long-term financial prosperity.*
Through closely monitoring the performance of my portfolio, I have witnessed a remarkable growth of *$500k* in just the past two quarters. This experience has shed light on why experienced traders are able to generate substantial returns even in lesser-known markets. It is safe to say that this bold decision has been one of the most impactful choices I have made recently.
The adviser I'm in touch with is *'Donald Nathan Scott'* He works with Merrill, Pierce, Smith incorporated and interviewed on CNBC Television. You can use something else, for me his strategy works hence my result. He provides entry and exit point for the securities I focus on.
What differentiates the poor from the rich is what both do with the information they get. While the poor doubt almost all the information they find, the rich get richer by doing things that the poor did not do when they got information. For financial success and investing, always work with a financial advisor who is ready to help you succeed.
Great video! Amazon is one of my largest holdings and will be Adding more next week. Question: what is your assessment of Devon Energy Corp (DVN)? Is this a good long-term investment for someone trying to build passive income for the future?
What's the main difference between Ebitda and ebit? Any pros and cons to both?
Cameron, Driving home today I saw a guy in a Cadillac narrowly missing a collision with a CASH COW , he must have had Ultra Cruise engaged. Any chance we will see your take on General Motors?
13:10 they used $6 Billion of the $10 Billion stock buyback they approved 👏🏿💰
6:58 💰 💰 💰
Great video
thank you
I am buying them shares!
SBC options won't go worthless per se... they will have accelerated vesting and ppl will get something (less than planned)
Thanks Mr. Stewart for providing professional reviews on so many great potential investments. Your technical analysis & summaries give appreciated sight. How about an updated review on Proctor & Gamble & Walgreens? With Walgreens/Village MD's new management and acquisition of Summitt Healthcare they may be turning things around... Also, what are your thoughts on DVN and STAG Industrial?Thanks Mr. Stewart for providing professional reviews on so many great potential investments. Your technical analysis & summaries give appreciated sight. How about an updated review on Proctor & Gamble & Walgreens? With Walgreens/Village MD's new management and acquisition of Summitt Healthcare they may be turning things around... Also, what are your thoughts on DVN and STAG Industrial?
Walgreens is in the cash flow club
@@CstewartCFA what is the cashflow club?
Thanks for the detailed and educational video
Cameron, when one updated analysis for Alibaba ... ? ;-)
A stock without a dividend is a speculation on a future price. To speculate, one has a better chance of doubling, etc with a penny stock of about $1 with overwhelming buy recommendations and there are some.
That's how I lost all my savings lol
Could you explain where the Excess Cash comes from? Wondering if its calculated or you take it from the 10K
It’s a guess at the amount of cash that could be dividend out without disturbing the business activity
Where do you get your data from?
is it possible to learn all this on your course? I mean you are CFO, you studied this. Thanks
the course is a basic foundation but you'll have to practice, as with any new skill.
Will you make an update after the Q1 results?
I can’t update after every q, to many other companies to look at.
I did an specific chart and fundamental analysis of Amazon stock too, its on my Channel. Be welcome.
For me , its BUY for sure.
“As this business scales” 😂 I think they are officially at scale now! (Kidding, I knew what you meant). Still too much growth baked into your forecast IMO. Increasing competition in AWS and their e-commerce business is unprofitable.
That conservative growth forecast is wild.
We love your genuine presentation, but its too simplistic. The problem with Amazon is the margins. Building a trillion dollar infrastructure to deliver under 25 dollar item across this vast continent to make a two dollar profit is not a sustainable business. The only hope is addition of high margin business such as cloud. The problem is AWS is already accounted for in the price. But dont fret as Amazon employees say its the greatest collection of startups. They encourage their directors to explore new revenue streams and new business. As of the moment there is nothing that gelled as yet. They are getting into health care space which might be the big one but not clear as yet. Until a new revenue stream its a dead stock.
thank you for a very good analysis.can you do a video on POOL
But aren't they issuing more stock in terms of compensation than they are buying back?
I bought PYPL - a cash cow at 192 USD, inspired by your video :)
Ouch, hope it was not a big position.
Damn up 122 in AH yesterday, collapsed today. From rags to riches back to rags in 24 hours.
Are you concerned the Current Ratio isn’t over 1x?
anyone know where they tell us the price per share for this stock today?
I think its at 102 dollars a share which is about what it is today..although it fell yesterday almost four dollars a share
Excel huh
Isn't the current PE over 70?
Like Always: great Video! Thanks a lot!! Whould you think about doing a Video about Caterpillar? Greetings from Hamburg, Germany!
Great thank you. CAT is over priced in my mind at the moment
I'm sort of new to this channel. How accurate Cameron's analyses have been so far?
Thanks!
not very good
I did an specific chart and fundamental analysis of Amazon stock too, its on my Channel. Be welcome.
For me , its BUY for sure.
You will bet it much cheaper on the future!
its currently at $145 is this still a good buy??
Amazon is all abt cash flows as any bussiness and no one knowa if they will suatain or make those cash flows better
Cheapness is not based on market cap.
That’s not what he’s saying. Put your ego on the shelf and actually watch the video.
You did not put a Neil Patrick Harris quote in here. I love this channel even more and didn't think that was possible.
Hahahah. Thanks!!!
thank you for the analysis. Isn´t Amazon still expensive on a P/E basis? The earnings (net profits) are very low as a percentage of their revenue. Moreover, there is this regulatory risk of antitrust.
I did an specific chart and fundamental analysis of Amazon stock too, its on my Channel. Be welcome.
For me , its BUY for sure.
If you base the valuation of Amazon on its fundamentals it is expensive now. Just because it is cheap compared to its high does not make it a value. Most tech stocks including Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon or overvalued or grossly overvalued and are headed lower. Be careful who you listen to folks. Warren Buffets investment in Amazon represents 0.32% of his portfolio which does not scream go buy!
Did you even watch the video? 😂
It just split.
I disagree - Debt: Debt/EBIDTA 2.8, Current and Quick ratio under 1; Profitability - ROIC 5y of 7%, Negative FCF over the past 3 years and less than 3% over the previous 7 years..and a PE of 314... That doesn't look like a good investment...
I keep buying Amazon at its highs and selling at its lows 🙄.... here I am again buying into Amazon in the $140's relatively fairly valued imo but I feel optimistic going forward. Amazon is the sleeping Giant in this recent AI boom, they haven't really tapped into their true potential yet of what AI could do for them.
An Tesla is gonna be the stock of decade
Are you not gonna give the company credit for their R&D and adjust ?
Amazon "cheapest" its been in 20 years. Berkshire selling. Math isn't mathing...
Evil company they will never get my investment dollars
Forecast error: Trump years: massive growth. Biden years: Recession. Forecasting while ignoring political climates is off.
It was 97$ last month. Today it is 105$. Not the cheapest. In 2019 it was 79$. What are you talking about?
Relative to earnings
Multiples lol.
I will wait for the Big Recession which everyone is talking about, so this stock goes down by 10$, 20$ and I will buy it then.
@@RegulusVi 🧢
If your not certain just buy long calls.
GBT technologies #GTCH please look into this stock, the price is increasing. Is it a good buy?
People bitching about their profit margins but that's because they investing in the future. It's a great buy.
Just saw on the cash flow statement that these guys handed out more than $20b of stock based comp last 12 months. Whew!!! Also: lets get to work 🫵!