I like him too, but he does repeat his speech a lot, it doesn’t change. There’s the carriers, the continuous agricultural area washed by navigable rivers and then there’s a breakdown of demographics.
I really enjoy listening to Peter Zeihan, but would really appreciate interviewers who actually interviewed and disagreed with him. I have the feeling he gives his view and there's no reaction or challenge - he, and we, need that.
IAN Bremmer? Hes been a China apologist and Supremacy thinker for the last 10 years. His analysis SCARED me. He's a Charlatan though, and a Zeihan fan now though.
@@Youtubbey775 eh, idk i have a bunch of counter questions I'd love to ask him. For example, he always says the us would just put an aircraft carrier in the malay strait and that'd be the end of china but would we really? I doubt any US official has the balls to do that, it's usually just strongly worded letters and sanctions. We also haven't shown that we are smart enough to do that.
@@sharingforimprovement155 Is putting a US Aircraft Carrier in the Malay Strait the best strategy? The U.S. should NOT be taking it's countermeasure strategies from either of these commentators. It's highly possible to argue it takes balls and high forms of intelligence to realize a solution is not a solution.
There are two kinds of people. Those who repeat the one thing they have to say and those that say nothing. Peter is of the former, and is fascinating every time.
Sure. He repeated so many times that China's economy is broken and is going to collapse anytime... He also predicted that the West would fully boycott China's winter Olympics... I think he is just a funny comedian.
@@ehlava the fact that China is going to collapse due to the United States no longer protecting sea lanes when in fact kyna has made an alternative Inland route connecting Spain pretty much every European country, Russia and Central Asia pretty much all of the Middle East that matters all directly by Rail and road to China
He's not a disciple though -- he's has been wrong a lot too. Watch his videos from 2015 - 2018 and you'll see the dissimilarities between his predictions then and now on: Energy, China, US Conservative establishment, etc. And he's even bought into some pretty blatant lies that I would have expected someone smart like him would've saw through. Take the Jan. 6th incident in a video from a year ago for example, where he mentioned his proposed outlook on what nationalist and the national politic were thinking (and the fact that he brought up the "murder" of a police officer, which was later admitted as a total fabrication), and then predicted the end of the republican party. When in fact, it's looking like a good bet that the democrat party is about to get shellaced big time, considering even big name democrats are switching parties and others are getting beaten by truck drivers with no real budget. The important take away is to 'consider' Zeihan's input, but never ever blindly subscribe to anyone's outlook without critical judgement. I've been watching his videos for years (about to be decades), and I've noticed a clear trend in that his viewers start to dip out after about 2.5 - 3 years of listening to him explicitly because they're beginning to notice the trends I've mentioned above.
I feel like 50% of this conversation was wasted "How bad is Trumpism" "Vaccine equality" "Climate change" things that have nothing to do with how Canada comes out ahead, leaders need to wake up because this stuff doesnt matter.
Zeihan was right years ago when he said that the prairie provinces would be better off joining the USA. I don’t know that enough of the populations of Alberta and Saskatchewan are ready to back that yet, but I do think that they are closer than they have ever been.
That really hinders his case when you realize that the people who make up the professional class (that being political moderates and a sizable minority of liberals) are dying out. For reasons that aren't entirely understood, moderates aren't having kids, and liberals are only having one or two. In fact, the only American political group that's having enough kids to replace itself and even to grow slightly is the Conservative Christians. Peter really needs to take that into consideration and start looking into the thought processes of the Conservative Christians if he wants to have an accurate picture of how American politics will play out during the collapse of the global order.
Remember this guy is still worshiping the vaccines even tho all the data points to the contrary... I'm starting to think he's just a state shill honestly been thinking that ever since his hard stance on the "vaccine " Also he thinks Canada handled the virus better ?? How so ?? by making Canada into a prison camp for a virus that kills 000.9 percent of people ... I mean if he's that off here how much of his thesis is complete BS selling a story Americans and the west want to hear ...
He does more in his books over his interviews We always calling a populist surge back in 2013 and 2014 with his first book when that seemed proposterous
Really appreciate Peter's comments on both the wider world and Canada. I found this to be either his best analysis of Canada's position, or perhaps the time devoted to it has helped me appreciate it better...his observations are well nuanced and balanced- much appreciated!
I'm happy to hear that you think Singapore will be a strategic partner with the US, post deglobalization. Why? Singapore is highly dependent on China for trade. I'm really interested to hear what the reasons might be.
I like Peter Zeihan but I don't think he is correct about most center right peoples perception of Jan 6. I think people that are not on the left generally perceive it the same the creation of the country of Chaz. A small group of fringe radicals that don't represent the majority acting stupid. I may be wrong, I'm just here for the ride (I dislike both parties)
No, you are most probably not wrong. The whole thing stinks like a dead fish. Righties don't riot. It's not part of their profile. Lefties do and openly advocate for it from the senate floor. It smells a lot like another Hillary set up run out of the FBI counter terrorism office. Why haven't significant "organizers" NOT been arrested? Because they are probably on the payroll.
Maybe for privileged center right people, but guess what that small group of fringe radicals is the target demographic for right wing political information strategy,
having a base of such easily mislead sheep is of critical strategic importance because they have to be weaponized to win elections and for political games.
@@hangingthief I partly agree with you, both sides have radical actors that the more radical politicians are exploiting. The question becomes how do we lawfully prevent such fringe groups from forming without violating freedom (as the violation of freedom is in turn radical and used by radicals).
@Not Needed One of the best ways for moderation to be had is to be intellectually honest enough to realize both parties have faults (this realization aids in dismantling tribalism)
I like your analyse. Clear and straightforward. I'm not realy sure about de-globalisation. Yes, there is a trend to bring back home the supply chain, but in the same time, many element of that supply chain seem to just move out of china to go in a other country around. I also suspect that some region will keep a expertise that will keep a part of the supply chain in their country. Country will try to be self suffisant, but how much succesfull they will be?
All I can say for Ziehan is wrote a pretty good explanation for why Russia has invaded Ukraine. He wrote it five years ago. The man's crystal ball is pretty good
I cant take anything regarding Canada seriously. He says canada hasn't changed... the world has and our 'government has done a good job'... ahhh... nope and nope!
I think he is wrong on the GOP #s and the center-left would carry the day. Based on voter registrations the GOP is making a lot of progress in key states. The great migration is making states deeper red or deeper blue.
in the micro sliced ways of gerrymandering, electoral college, and money allocation, you may be right. but the popular vote seems to tell a different story... but, again, to your point, not even like it's a 60-40 split. still pretty thin sliced. i'd hope the storming of the castle and election process undermining might change ppls thinking though. that changed things for me anyway.
I think the demographics thing will sort itself out. If you look at most peoples reasons for not having kids it more or less boils down to economics. Kids are expensive and the cost of living, especially housing, is really high, while wages are low because of fierce competition globally while we have a large workforce. This affects family formation. A majority of 20-somethings in Europe live with parents, because they can't afford to live on their own, either because youth unemployment is high, 20% or more in some countries, or the aforementioned high living cost. Therefore, there isn't that stability necessary for young people to get married and start families of their own. However, if the worse comes to pass and countries do start seeing their populations fall by a third or more, then these problems are rectified. Housing prices will have to go down since if you have homes for 80 million Germans but there are only 60 million, law of supply and demand. This also applies to wages, which will have to go up as the workforce shrinks and companies desperately compete to try to find workers. So in the future, probably around the 2060s-2070s we'll likely see birthrates go up again in the countries that now have abysmal fertility.
Places to live are highly dependent on their location. We aren’t evenly distributed in country with only like two factors (number of people vs price of homes) that decide this. Growing cities are cannibalizing shrinking cities. Just like generation ago cities in general were cannibalizing villages in rural areas. If you want, you can now buy house with 10 times of size of flat in city, with its own big land for the same price as that small flat. There is a joke in my country “ad: I exchange 2 bed room apartment in capital city for medium-size village in countryside”. But very little people do that outside of like buying summer vacation house. Because there is no economic activity. Because first people to move are always young people. With only old people remaining economy shrinks and area starts deteriorate. Country like Bulgaria already went from 9 million in 1980s to 7 million today, and we don’t see any revitalization of births there. Neither in American rust belt that is shrinking in size as population moves south. You won’t live in area with lower prices. Because people will just concentrate in smaller amount of cities. So prices there will remain high. While areas that will have those lower prices will be without people and shrinking economic activity. Not to mention cultural norms. If all your life you lived around people who had zero or one child, you will tend to follow the crowd, you won’t be like I want 3 or 4. I mean some might, but generally, people follow trends.
@@stafer3 Two things that might make the economic activity of rural regions pick up are work from home and De-globalization. Technology now allows many white collar workers to well, work from anywhere, we are already seeing some move out of high-priced cities and into smaller towns. These workers form the basis for economic activity as they buy local goods and services, allowing local businesses to exist, think restaurants, barber shops and the like. The point is rural communities need an anchor or two to keep afloat. Usually a factory or something of the like. That's why globalization was so bad and urbanization so high, because all the small town factories relocated abroad and people rushed into the cities in search of a white collar dream that for many never materialized. But now with countries wanting to be more self-reliant, those factories are coming back, and they aren't going to set up in expensive, highly regulated urban areas, they'll likely go to the countryside for the cheap land and workers will follow. Cultural norms I think are more malleable, since it used to be normal to have 8-10 children, but now its normal to have none or maybe one, so I don't see that as big of an obstacle. It's not going to be a straight line, but I think if we can get back to where economic activity was more spread out, rather than all the good jobs being concentrated in a handful of cities. But you have to get the policy right, If you don't you'll end up like Bulgaria. The US might have an easier time doing this since each state, each city even, has significant power over local zoning and taxes that smaller communities can attract industry and commerce.
The majority of immigrants and refugees in the west aren't a benefit to their economies or demografics and drive up costs, also bad government policies have made energy prices, food and housing prices rise while we should be more focused on trying to raise our own birthrates and quality of life for young people to raise families, for some reason only the "far right" and some leftwing parties take on this universal issue of concern and so immigration has to go down and building of houses as well as energy production needs to go up rapidly, sadly both the people and governments don't seem to understand these things very well and so people are going to suffer because of it.
@@prismaticplurality5151 yes and it's even worse when the government insists that young people get locked up because of a supposed ''deadly'' pandemic which would have reduced the number of pensioners while not really effecting the youth, sadly mostly old people vote so that's the demografic politicians focus on. it's a horrible situation and the only way to really get out of it is a combination of higher birthrates, automation and more deathrates by mostly elderly populations, migration can help but that brings it's own issues and not always serves the function it's meant to solve.
He is wrong about Jan 6th. In previous lectures on this subject he was repeating NY Times talking points that have been proven wrong. BTW he didn't seem concerned about the riots all over the country from BLM and Antifa. I'll listen to him all day long about demographics and global geopolitical issues, domestic politics, not so much.
What specifically is he wrong about? And why don’t you think he’s against the BLM violence? Also, you know there’s a difference between riots and civil turmoil (something that’s happened all the time since the beginning of this country) and a sitting president inciting a crowd with outright lies so he can try to litigate his way to a second term. That’s never happened. So it’s apple and oranges and poor argument to compare the two
@@joela.4058 For one he repeated the lie that capital cop was killed by being hit by fire extinguisher. That is a proven lie published by NYT. Trump repeated told the crowed to go home. Given the FBI is now refusing to answer basic questions about their participation in the January events I find a lot of the events in that incident suspect. Just like the refusal of the DC mayor and Nancy Polosi's refusal to sign off on Trumps request for a National Guard presents before the riot. But its all Trumps fault right? Lastly he did an entire lecture about the riots in Portland and else where, and yes he did down play them.
Thank you for an interesting question. I know about demographic decline in the Western Part of late Roman Empire, the decline has been reversed after Germanic tribes got control over the territory. I do not know about another not recent example of population decline that was caused by low birth rates and not by factors like climate change, collapse of irrigation systems, mass slaughter or plague. I would be happy to read about other examples, if someone knows.
The Greek Dark Ages after the Bronze Age Collapse (around 1200 BC). Very low, rural population. Population rebounded after a few hundred years. Will do so again. Assuming the current low birth rate is a constant is an error, I think. Hopefully won't take another civilization collapse to reverse things. But things change.
@@edlarmore5958 There we many events like this. At the very beginning of 19th century population of Judea was likely about 2-3 million man - at the end of the 18th century it was just 200 thousand. Also after bronze Age Collapse there was population decline in most of Middle East, not just in Greece. But none of that was a population decline caused by low birth rates - it was population decline caused by climate change and irrigation systems collapse, mass killings, but not low birth rates.
i know a bit off your great question, but looking ahead a dark horse possibility that the pandemic may offer a bump over the long run... though early indications show the opposite. but over my lifetime the drum beat has always been 'overpopulation' and i am hearing a different story these days... a green shoot in that respect. who knows, having 5+ kids may come back into vogue one day in some country with declining demographics. when things become 'certain' its always worth looking at other outcomes.
My only problem with many Zeihan interviews, what is his loss if he is wrong in his analysis when confronted with it. All the think tanks have this problem, they only sell to the audience that wants to hear what they want.
That is a sage observation. Nassim Taleb would agree with you that this is a huge problem, and that such people rarely if ever face consequences if they are wrong
Well, Peter didn't tell this interviewer/Vancouver audience what they wanted to hear. On the contrary, it's proof that the economy is more important than the left leaning virtue signalling, politically correctness of Canada. Ontario and Quebec do not want a pipeline going through their province yet they're more than happy to take the transfer payments from Alberta and Sask. Maybe they will change their minds when the cash flow from oil stops. It's not like it's any secret that Canada is a resource based economy.
@@GrinchDec23 the guy is a complete loose cannon mixing some data driven solid points with wildly speculative ones based on assumptions nobody has the information to make and just treat both as having the same argumentative value. Its fascinating.
Collectivist ridiculousness.. Also why we are all saying how great Peter is , He's been absolutely wrong about the vaccines and that's been obvious for atleast 6 months and still we are talking about vaccines ?? It's experimental garbage still in trials, nothing but a control mechanism with Vax pass
Woha! Wait a minute. Peter states that the US will have 4 allies 5 years from now, UK, Australia, Japan and Singapore. What happened to Taiwan. Taiwan is the complex chip maker of choice to the USA. Is Peter seeing a demise of Taiwan?
its just one more of those wildly speculative, often seemingly improvised claims that he presents as serious, deeply researched analyses. He gets some right and some wrong but he is such a confident speaker!
For me it’s difficult to understand why January 6 was some sort of catastrophic event. While the last six months before that cities burned and I was only told those were peaceful protest
Your “leadership “ wasn’t under attack for those 6 months prior. The American “system” was “under attack” on the 6th. The truth is the Jan 6th protest smeared the mask off of the beast so that hopefully most Americans can see that the system protects itself and those old ideals of “the peoples house” etc are archaic lies today.
Zeihan is a great analyst but sometimes his political analysis baffles me. Literally no one views the Democrats as the Law and Order crowd. That is still overwhelmingly Republican. Nobody who is an reasonable gives a damn about January 6. The new Whopper is literally more impactful than Jan 6.
Accept the fact that the Millennials are now the largest voting Bloc and the vast majority of them regardless of race are democrat leaning. Realistically by 2030, Republicans are going to take a hard left and the pendulum that describes left and right will be very different. For example lgbtq which is something Republicans have opposed for a very long time is now starting to become accepted because pretty much every Millennial accepts it. Similarly, many other things will take the same route. What was once anti-conservative will now be the new conservative and that includes abortion. These are the last few years of the traditional Republican party and the Republican party is already taking a hard left on social issues, otherwise pornstars wouldn't be invited to the young conservative forums
No offence...but do you think Manitoba & Saskatchewan generate net $$$ that go to Ontario & Quebec?...heck, I'm not even sure Alberta generates net $$$ that benefits Ontario & Quebec...though clearly that used to be the case in the "good ol days of oil".
@@captainelectron5426 Ontario and Quebec are net recipients of provincial equalization payments, Saskatchewan and Alberta are net contributers, and have been for a long time. We would be better off without the former.
In the future with even India birthrates slowing the only surplus people would be African. I can foresee a time that competition between the great powers for African labor becoming very high. That would put the US in a bad place for that competition when our demographics crash because of our history
@@redcoltken the US is never going to struggle for labour. The entire South American continent full of people who will move, even as Mexico eventually equalises with US pay rates. Also, no African could care less about US history. The US means a better life for 99% of them.
@@samdunn717 Birthrates in Latin America and South America are crashing. I can see short term Venezuela shifting - but in the long term its still Africa.
It rolls off the tongue better. USMCA looks like a trading block that is exclusively North American - I think Peter sees a pan global trading block that includes the UK and Australia. Something like a loose alliance between the Anglosphere, Latin North America and the Caribbean and parts of Asia. NAFTA sounds more accurate even if its obsolete.
The Chinese vaccine is 57.5% effective against symptomatic COVID-19 and 91.7% against severe disease four weeks or longer after one dose. There are better ones but it can do the job.
I don't trust Peter Zeihan: When someone is talking or giving advice about a subject that I know little about I try to hear if they speak about something that I do know something about. I also have the benefit of hindsight. He was wrong on the war on terror (search FOX news). He cherry picks statistics that are in US favour. I agree the US has a lot of benefits stemming from its geography (Agro business + water transportation + two ocean's). At the same time it's my impression that the US government is sacrificing the middle of the country for the benefit of Wall Street and the tech sector in California. There is no American disengagement from the world! The US is playing its strongest card in my opinion -the military. It can force its will on weaker countries. Saudi Arabia, UAE et al reinvest a part of it's oil profit at Wall Street and in London. In return the US protect the Gulf dictator's against its population. Concerning Japan, what impact did the Plaza accords have on Japanese economy? I think the Petrodollar will fall but for now there's no credible replacement.
In all the discussions about population crashing from these global political experts, I've never once heard them even mention in passing the massive number of abortions worldwide as a contributing factor. You could fill 25 cities the size of L.A. with all the children that were aborted in the U.S. alone since Roe v Wade. If you put them all in one state, that state would have 20% more people than California and be the most populous state in the nation.
Did you listen? It is families who chose whether or not to have children. Back in the '70s, pre-legal abortions and wide-spread availability of the pill, there was always a way, even if it had a high maternal death rate. Back-street abortions caused untold deaths of many women, who may have gone on to have families - when the time was right. Banning legal abortion does nothing. Adapting to smaller populations - ceasing the mythical goal of "eternal growth rates". We're already consuming a planet and a half of resources a year - taking more out than we put in - and it's getting worse. Many people are putting off having children because (a) they cannot afford to (b) they can see the impact on the environment of growing populations (esp. in the US where you consume almost three times the average) and (c) they can see that a minority of people are making the world a worse place to live instead of living up to Christian teachings and trying to make it a better place - for everyone.
I enjoy these interviews, I truly do, but is anyone else disquieted at least a little bit by the fact that so many of them feature people who seem to be broadcasting from my grad school dump of an apartment in Allston, Mass? Painted hinges, no molding , no decorations, poor acoustics…. One wonders if afterwards they dine on Raman and then take the bus to their second job as a Customer Service Specialist call center assistant manager.
Love the Massachusetts sense of humor I’m a Masshole myself and been listening to Zeihan for a couple of years and he is pretty accurate on most occasions.Love the description of your Apartment
I do my Market analysis with a geopolitical point of view, influenced by Mr. Zeihan , I’m doing awesome . I also read his ex boss , came to the conclusion that Mexico is getting gentrified .
Q: from 5:43. he states anyone dependent on Chinese MFG is about to get hosed ..... if Chine produces 90-95% of our Antibiotics and other medicines would the US not be hosed?
Z walked a finer line during the Trump years. Now he throws Trump under the bus and uses all Trump's talking points as if they were his own, totally new and never-before-tried even.
Cuba’s CIGB has also teamed up with colleagues in China to work on a new vaccine called Pan-Corona, designed to be effective against different strains of the coronavirus. The idea is that this vaccine will stimulate generation of antibodies by using parts of the virus that are conserved rather than those prone to variation (alongside parts directed at cellular responses). if this woorks it will be the best one out there.
I'd like to see both parties nominate terrible candidates so a moderate could win as a 3rd party. We need a mediator that's a real leader and I think that could do it.
Canada not a strategic ally??? Where does the USA gets most of its IMPORTED … water, oil, electricity, uranium, potash … with an eye on lithium, etc, etc, etc and, auto parts? Some strategist and futurist.
"...Ukraine is moving towards to democracy & Kazakhstan moving to totalitarianism..." 😆 this "expert" totally delusional he doesn't know subjects he is talking about. I guess he gets his knowledge from news headlines only.
Won’t we in the developed world just give way to the country that has the largest young population. Wars are fought by 20 year olds. If Pakistan has 10x the 20 year olds they win As an example
Great overview but to omit the likely destruction of the current monolithic federal Govt structures in western nations is a pity. Would have liked to hear his view. With institutional collapse and redefinition ahead, big govt will not go untouched. Cheers
i dunno 5+years ago he told us the lights would go out in china first and they would run out of food and they would descend into isolationism and their housing market would collapse all of that is happening right now
@@007kingifrit 5+ years ago Chinese economy was at 12 trillion today 16.7 trillion. If you watch mainstream media China supposedly self destructed 20 years ago. This guy is not predicting anything, this is his Wishful thinking
@@Ben-vr6qz that's a misleading measure as china lies about their GDP numbers. they raise it by trading debt with themselves and offering bad loans abroad to keep their people employed its all gana come down
@@Ben-vr6qz real analysts know there is no such thing as objective. its a little boy's understanding of life the chicoms specifically select ways to move and manipulate their GDP that defies measure......because it defies measure
Demographics, immigration, exporting jobs, all major factors, along with debt. Canadians seem to be overly blue pilled and over educated, way too over educated, way to leftist. Similar to Australia, exporting commodities to survive. What do Canadians really make, in manufacturing?
@@fr0stmourn3 I was under the impression this is about Canada. I am a neighbor of Canada in MN. We are not on the same page. Should have said Australia exporting commodities to survive. Sorry. Peace.
Canadians make mortgage loans... beautiful elaborate mortgage loans backed by building restrictions and excess immigration of high skill workers and the global wealthy...
The word geopolitics appeared in vocabulary about 1895 with the anglo french allia`nce invasion of China and Vietnam the new world order.The word is obsolete no space station? no men?.The emergence of the realigned world order and sovereignty and accountability will have profound effect no more geo politics.
ZERO percent growth? The central bank is counting on and must have 2% growth in order to make a profit on their fiat currency scheme. at zero percent growth there is no way to pay the interest on the national debt. The currency of Canada will fail. Banks will fail. Ouch!
I don’t wanna have kids with the women I date, I’d rather have a dog. My dog is of an ultra loyal breed, it follows me around, is thankful when I give it bones to chew. Meanwhile the women today will likely leave you because they are bored. Dogs are clearly superior.
Ukraine is moving towards democracy? Lol. Democracy is where leaders are installed while they try to get you to believe you actually had a say. How did Zelenki get there Peter? Or Biden for that matter.
I am not persuaded by the quality or objectivity of Peter Zeihan’s analysis on the economic prospects for China versus America and its allies. Too much weight is given to the demographic arguments as a driver of China’s decline, as many Western countries are facing a significant drop in population and productive capacity. Anti immigration politics are gaining in strength and act as a drag on the US, UK, and EU growth. Like Japan, many countries will have to accept less growth-oriented models of development. China appears to be putting its focus on high tech advancement and policies to reduce wealth disparities. In the West, wealth disparities, housing, education, and health affordability, declining democracy, and drug dependence will continue to drive internal political disruption and disorder. Neither China nor America is close to collapse. Yet, this superpower competition is likely to be equally damaging to America as China. As Americans, we should focus on getting our own house in order by improving the conditions of life and opportunity for people to succeed. People around the world are starting to seriously question the American model of development as something to look up to.
Again another ridiculous cliam from him that Ukraine is going in the direction of democracy. Even tho a lot of what he says makes sense its these few over the top absurd things that he seems to believe that make him lose credibility and makes it difficult to take anything else he says seriously
What a loose canon zeihan is. Solid data driven analyses mixed in with wildly speculative claims as if they have the same argumentative value. He gets some right, some wrong and present interesting perspectives but its really not something to be taken as gospel and even less to be used for any strategic planning.
Well, great interview, and he spoke about so much important things that are going on, from demography to American disengagement. But here are a few remarks from me where I disagree. 1. He didn't say a word about inflation and about huge goverment debts. But this is a big story (may be a very big story). 2. At the moment it doesn't look like a center-left candidate in US can win next election. Biden ran his campagn as a moderate, on a promise to bring unity and now his administration acts as radicals. The same trick will not work next time - it is going to be much harder for a democratic moderate to win.
Doesn't seem like he understands Canada's strategy to deal with our demographics and hence our economy. A strategy that appears to be working quite well. Time will tell if we grow our economy faster or if Mexico does. Seems far fetched to assume Mexico will
If by working you mean become a joke of a nation and a third world country then yes Canada is doing very well in that regard. If you want an economy of the future you have to have highly educated people, invest in automation and learn to deal with a growing elderly population, if you think immigration is going to solve all that the way canada or western Europe is doing it your wrong. You can have immigrants for sure but you have to be way more selective and critical about them, not just let anyone in and punish anyone who speaks out against it.
@@golagiswatchingyou2966 the vast majority of immigrants we let in are through postsecondary programs, who can only stay in the country with no criminal record or issues of note, followed by rich individuals willing to invest. Our population as a result is one of the most educated if not the most educated in the world. So it's working very well. We will see if Mexico or USA can keep up, but seems doubtful at this point.
@@dhagos not sure if that's correct with Justin Trudeo who I believe wants to raise immigration to very high levels to the point of not being able to assimulate them into canadian culture, though they probably do a better job than the USA or parts of western Europe does.
@@golagiswatchingyou2966 We are aiming for 400k immigrants a year(just hit that record in 2021). 230k from our economic category which includes graduates from post secondary, workers in fields with shortages, and investors. 100k that are sponsored by families (people bringing their kids and parents etc.). The family would sponsor them and would need to show financial ability to take care of them. He has increased the number of refugees we let in to 70k, or 17.5% which is higher than it typically is. But unlike Europe we do decide which refugees can come into the country. We don't have boarders to worry about, so it's much more orderly. We've expanded our work permits recently, that's the biggest change. But looking at our immigrants, 2/3 own a house within a few years and earn a good salary. We changed our laws to attract international students, if you go to school here you get a 3 year work permit. Following which you should qualify for citizenship. It's worked well. The plan is pretty well thought out and well designed. About 1/3 professionals are immigrants at this point (doctors, nurses, dentists etc.). Which should help support the aging population. As needs arise new fields of workers are permitted special work visas. Just in case schools aren't producing enough. Don't be fooled by the politicians and acting they put on. It's mostly a show to keep us entertained lol. We have a minority government so Justin can't pass anything without support from other parties.
@@dhagos I would like to see a more permanent solution to the aging problem, not just "bring more migrants" which is not really a solution but more like a kick the can down the road type of solution. That being said the way you explain it does make it seem a lot more orderly, pragmatic compared to most of western Europe or the southern border in the USA right now. I would point out however that Canada does not have a very large population in relation with their size and having more and more immigrants might make it harder to assimulate them all, perhaps it's different for former colonial nations since everyone there used to be an immigrant but here in Europe it's much more sensitive, seeing as Europe is largely made up of ethnostates, fought wars for their existence and has a more blood and soil type of history or tendency compared to Canada. Things do really suck these days, many people long to the good old days or a future that's not currently on the table.
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I watch ANYTHING and EVERYTHING with Peter Zeihan
Are you me
Yes
he is the new Jordan Peterson
Same
I like him too, but he does repeat his speech a lot, it doesn’t change. There’s the carriers, the continuous agricultural area washed by navigable rivers and then there’s a breakdown of demographics.
I really enjoy listening to Peter Zeihan, but would really appreciate interviewers who actually interviewed and disagreed with him. I have the feeling he gives his view and there's no reaction or challenge - he, and we, need that.
IAN Bremmer? Hes been a China apologist and Supremacy thinker for the last 10 years. His analysis SCARED me. He's a Charlatan though, and a Zeihan fan now though.
@@Youtubbey775 eh, idk i have a bunch of counter questions I'd love to ask him. For example, he always says the us would just put an aircraft carrier in the malay strait and that'd be the end of china but would we really? I doubt any US official has the balls to do that, it's usually just strongly worded letters and sanctions. We also haven't shown that we are smart enough to do that.
There is a libertarian podcast he guested on and was challenged by the host - it was interesting
@@redcoltken It was Scott Horton's podcast.
@@sharingforimprovement155 Is putting a US Aircraft Carrier in the Malay Strait the best strategy? The U.S. should NOT be taking it's countermeasure strategies from either of these commentators. It's highly possible to argue it takes balls and high forms of intelligence to realize a solution is not a solution.
There are two kinds of people. Those who repeat the one thing they have to say and those that say nothing. Peter is of the former, and is fascinating every time.
Sure. He repeated so many times that China's economy is broken and is going to collapse anytime... He also predicted that the West would fully boycott China's winter Olympics... I think he is just a funny comedian.
Over time the first kind of people will turnt out to be the last one too
It's amazing how he can be at times so insightful, and at times so delusional.
I'll bite...so what's delusional?
I respect his opinion but he makes assumptions sometimes that aren’t founded in current facts, with no verbal support to explain why he’s making them.
@@philipgates8693 such as...?
@@ehlava the fact that China is going to collapse due to the United States no longer protecting sea lanes when in fact kyna has made an alternative Inland route connecting Spain pretty much every European country, Russia and Central Asia pretty much all of the Middle East that matters all directly by Rail and road to China
@@NadeemAhmed-nv2br he talks about why land based trade is so much worse in his other talks. Something like 15-50x more costly
Nobody is ever , Truly Safe . That is called Life .
Zeihan is an original and thought-provoking analyst. I always learn something from what he says. Never has demographics been so dramatic.
He's not a disciple though -- he's has been wrong a lot too. Watch his videos from 2015 - 2018 and you'll see the dissimilarities between his predictions then and now on: Energy, China, US Conservative establishment, etc. And he's even bought into some pretty blatant lies that I would have expected someone smart like him would've saw through. Take the Jan. 6th incident in a video from a year ago for example, where he mentioned his proposed outlook on what nationalist and the national politic were thinking (and the fact that he brought up the "murder" of a police officer, which was later admitted as a total fabrication), and then predicted the end of the republican party. When in fact, it's looking like a good bet that the democrat party is about to get shellaced big time, considering even big name democrats are switching parties and others are getting beaten by truck drivers with no real budget.
The important take away is to 'consider' Zeihan's input, but never ever blindly subscribe to anyone's outlook without critical judgement. I've been watching his videos for years (about to be decades), and I've noticed a clear trend in that his viewers start to dip out after about 2.5 - 3 years of listening to him explicitly because they're beginning to notice the trends I've mentioned above.
I feel like 50% of this conversation was wasted "How bad is Trumpism" "Vaccine equality" "Climate change" things that have nothing to do with how Canada comes out ahead, leaders need to wake up because this stuff doesnt matter.
Zeihan is a Neo Con, he has no accurate analysis on china because he's never lived there.
Zeihan was right years ago when he said that the prairie provinces would be better off joining the USA. I don’t know that enough of the populations of Alberta and Saskatchewan are ready to back that yet, but I do think that they are closer than they have ever been.
Huge Zeihan fan! I shamelessly use his arguments on geo-politics all the time…😎
Excellent , he may not allways be right , but he's fun to listen to.
So , Biden and Kamala Harris represent the "adults" in the room.
Hahahahahaha!!!!!!!!!
lol here we are in September and it looks like the orange man is in with a possibility, I would rather see DeSantis up there.
I like Peter, but he really struggles to understand Americans who aren’t part of the professional class
That really hinders his case when you realize that the people who make up the professional class (that being political moderates and a sizable minority of liberals) are dying out. For reasons that aren't entirely understood, moderates aren't having kids, and liberals are only having one or two. In fact, the only American political group that's having enough kids to replace itself and even to grow slightly is the Conservative Christians.
Peter really needs to take that into consideration and start looking into the thought processes of the Conservative Christians if he wants to have an accurate picture of how American politics will play out during the collapse of the global order.
His predictions are spot on internationally, not so much domestically.
Remember this guy is still worshiping the vaccines even tho all the data points to the contrary...
I'm starting to think he's just a state shill honestly been thinking that ever since his hard stance on the "vaccine "
Also he thinks Canada handled the virus better ?? How so ?? by making Canada into a prison camp for a virus that kills 000.9 percent of people ... I mean if he's that off here how much of his thesis is complete BS selling a story Americans and the west want to hear ...
He does more in his books over his interviews
We always calling a populist surge back in 2013 and 2014 with his first book when that seemed proposterous
@@joshuajames2425 He's way overboard when the virus, He's just one of those people when it comes to that.
This was a tough but interesting conversation
Really appreciate Peter's comments on both the wider world and Canada. I found this to be either his best analysis of Canada's position, or perhaps the time devoted to it has helped me appreciate it better...his observations are well nuanced and balanced- much appreciated!
I'm happy to hear that you think Singapore will be a strategic partner with the US, post deglobalization. Why? Singapore is highly dependent on China for trade. I'm really interested to hear what the reasons might be.
I like Peter Zeihan but I don't think he is correct about most center right peoples perception of Jan 6. I think people that are not on the left generally perceive it the same the creation of the country of Chaz. A small group of fringe radicals that don't represent the majority acting stupid. I may be wrong, I'm just here for the ride (I dislike both parties)
No, you are most probably not wrong. The whole thing stinks like a dead fish. Righties don't riot. It's not part of their profile. Lefties do and openly advocate for it from the senate floor. It smells a lot like another Hillary set up run out of the FBI counter terrorism office. Why haven't significant "organizers" NOT been arrested? Because they are probably on the payroll.
Maybe for privileged center right people, but guess what that small group of fringe radicals is the target demographic for right wing political information strategy,
having a base of such easily mislead sheep is of critical strategic importance because they have to be weaponized to win elections and for political games.
@@hangingthief I partly agree with you, both sides have radical actors that the more radical politicians are exploiting. The question becomes how do we lawfully prevent such fringe groups from forming without violating freedom (as the violation of freedom is in turn radical and used by radicals).
@Not Needed One of the best ways for moderation to be had is to be intellectually honest enough to realize both parties have faults (this realization aids in dismantling tribalism)
min 07:06 "in bed with the elephant when it rolls over" hahaha I loved this one. He is very creative!!!
I like your analyse. Clear and straightforward. I'm not realy sure about de-globalisation. Yes, there is a trend to bring back home the supply chain, but in the same time, many element of that supply chain seem to just move out of china to go in a other country around. I also suspect that some region will keep a expertise that will keep a part of the supply chain in their country. Country will try to be self suffisant, but how much succesfull they will be?
Always a treat to hear what P. Z. Has to say about the global trends.
Thank you for the interview from a Canadian perspective.
Peter is one of my favorite IR guys, Friedman,VDH,Mearshheimer,Kalkin,
Kaplan...are worth considering.
Exactly WHERE did you learn to backstab so well, petey?
Fascinating. We see all the pieces but someone needs to put them together. Well done.
All I can say for Ziehan is wrote a pretty good explanation for why Russia has invaded Ukraine. He wrote it five years ago. The man's crystal ball is pretty good
Cause he saw that CIA USA involvement would finally realize the designated goal ?
Europe itself is wary....
I cant take anything regarding Canada seriously. He says canada hasn't changed... the world has and our 'government has done a good job'... ahhh... nope and nope!
I think he is wrong on the GOP #s and the center-left would carry the day. Based on voter registrations the GOP is making a lot of progress in key states. The great migration is making states deeper red or deeper blue.
in the micro sliced ways of gerrymandering, electoral college, and money allocation, you may be right. but the popular vote seems to tell a different story... but, again, to your point, not even like it's a 60-40 split. still pretty thin sliced. i'd hope the storming of the castle and election process undermining might change ppls thinking though. that changed things for me anyway.
I think the demographics thing will sort itself out.
If you look at most peoples reasons for not having kids it more or less boils down to economics. Kids are expensive and the cost of living, especially housing, is really high, while wages are low because of fierce competition globally while we have a large workforce.
This affects family formation. A majority of 20-somethings in Europe live with parents, because they can't afford to live on their own, either because youth unemployment is high, 20% or more in some countries, or the aforementioned high living cost. Therefore, there isn't that stability necessary for young people to get married and start families of their own.
However, if the worse comes to pass and countries do start seeing their populations fall by a third or more, then these problems are rectified.
Housing prices will have to go down since if you have homes for 80 million Germans but there are only 60 million, law of supply and demand. This also applies to wages, which will have to go up as the workforce shrinks and companies desperately compete to try to find workers.
So in the future, probably around the 2060s-2070s we'll likely see birthrates go up again in the countries that now have abysmal fertility.
Places to live are highly dependent on their location. We aren’t evenly distributed in country with only like two factors (number of people vs price of homes) that decide this. Growing cities are cannibalizing shrinking cities. Just like generation ago cities in general were cannibalizing villages in rural areas.
If you want, you can now buy house with 10 times of size of flat in city, with its own big land for the same price as that small flat. There is a joke in my country “ad: I exchange 2 bed room apartment in capital city for medium-size village in countryside”. But very little people do that outside of like buying summer vacation house.
Because there is no economic activity. Because first people to move are always young people. With only old people remaining economy shrinks and area starts deteriorate. Country like Bulgaria already went from 9 million in 1980s to 7 million today, and we don’t see any revitalization of births there. Neither in American rust belt that is shrinking in size as population moves south.
You won’t live in area with lower prices. Because people will just concentrate in smaller amount of cities. So prices there will remain high. While areas that will have those lower prices will be without people and shrinking economic activity.
Not to mention cultural norms. If all your life you lived around people who had zero or one child, you will tend to follow the crowd, you won’t be like I want 3 or 4. I mean some might, but generally, people follow trends.
@@stafer3 Two things that might make the economic activity of rural regions pick up are work from home and De-globalization.
Technology now allows many white collar workers to well, work from anywhere, we are already seeing some move out of high-priced cities and into smaller towns. These workers form the basis for economic activity as they buy local goods and services, allowing local businesses to exist, think restaurants, barber shops and the like.
The point is rural communities need an anchor or two to keep afloat. Usually a factory or something of the like. That's why globalization was so bad and urbanization so high, because all the small town factories relocated abroad and people rushed into the cities in search of a white collar dream that for many never materialized. But now with countries wanting to be more self-reliant, those factories are coming back, and they aren't going to set up in expensive, highly regulated urban areas, they'll likely go to the countryside for the cheap land and workers will follow.
Cultural norms I think are more malleable, since it used to be normal to have 8-10 children, but now its normal to have none or maybe one, so I don't see that as big of an obstacle.
It's not going to be a straight line, but I think if we can get back to where economic activity was more spread out, rather than all the good jobs being concentrated in a handful of cities. But you have to get the policy right, If you don't you'll end up like Bulgaria.
The US might have an easier time doing this since each state, each city even, has significant power over local zoning and taxes that smaller communities can attract industry and commerce.
The majority of immigrants and refugees in the west aren't a benefit to their economies or demografics and drive up costs, also bad government policies have made energy prices, food and housing prices rise while we should be more focused on trying to raise our own birthrates and quality of life for young people to raise families, for some reason only the "far right" and some leftwing parties take on this universal issue of concern and so immigration has to go down and building of houses as well as energy production needs to go up rapidly, sadly both the people and governments don't seem to understand these things very well and so people are going to suffer because of it.
Nope... Poor ppl have massive amount of kids whereas rich ppl have none or one... Mainly it is a spiritual crises
@@prismaticplurality5151 yes and it's even worse when the government insists that young people get locked up because of a supposed ''deadly'' pandemic which would have reduced the number of pensioners while not really effecting the youth, sadly mostly old people vote so that's the demografic politicians focus on.
it's a horrible situation and the only way to really get out of it is a combination of higher birthrates, automation and more deathrates by mostly elderly populations, migration can help but that brings it's own issues and not always serves the function it's meant to solve.
Thanks very much
Great look at real options
Every other question the interviewer asked was about Trump. Good grief.
a tinge of TDS, Vancouver, wdye?
He is wrong about Jan 6th. In previous lectures on this subject he was repeating NY Times talking points that have been proven wrong. BTW he didn't seem concerned about the riots all over the country from BLM and Antifa. I'll listen to him all day long about demographics and global geopolitical issues, domestic politics, not so much.
What specifically is he wrong about? And why don’t you think he’s against the BLM violence?
Also, you know there’s a difference between riots and civil turmoil (something that’s happened all the time since the beginning of this country) and a sitting president inciting a crowd with outright lies so he can try to litigate his way to a second term. That’s never happened. So it’s apple and oranges and poor argument to compare the two
@@joela.4058 For one he repeated the lie that capital cop was killed by being hit by fire extinguisher. That is a proven lie published by NYT. Trump repeated told the crowed to go home. Given the FBI is now refusing to answer basic questions about their participation in the January events I find a lot of the events in that incident suspect. Just like the refusal of the DC mayor and Nancy Polosi's refusal to sign off on Trumps request for a National Guard presents before the riot. But its all Trumps fault right?
Lastly he did an entire lecture about the riots in Portland and else where, and yes he did down play them.
When previously in history has demographic decline been reversed and what caused it?
Thank you for an interesting question. I know about demographic decline in the Western Part of late Roman Empire, the decline has been reversed after Germanic tribes got control over the territory. I do not know about another not recent example of population decline that was caused by low birth rates and not by factors like climate change, collapse of irrigation systems, mass slaughter or plague. I would be happy to read about other examples, if someone knows.
The Greek Dark Ages after the Bronze Age Collapse (around 1200 BC). Very low, rural population. Population rebounded after a few hundred years. Will do so again. Assuming the current low birth rate is a constant is an error, I think. Hopefully won't take another civilization collapse to reverse things. But things change.
@@edlarmore5958 There we many events like this. At the very beginning of 19th century population of Judea was likely about 2-3 million man - at the end of the 18th century it was just 200 thousand. Also after bronze Age Collapse there was population decline in most of Middle East, not just in Greece. But none of that was a population decline caused by low birth rates - it was population decline caused by climate change and irrigation systems collapse, mass killings, but not low birth rates.
i know a bit off your great question, but looking ahead a dark horse possibility that the pandemic may offer a bump over the long run... though early indications show the opposite. but over my lifetime the drum beat has always been 'overpopulation' and i am hearing a different story these days... a green shoot in that respect. who knows, having 5+ kids may come back into vogue one day in some country with declining demographics. when things become 'certain' its always worth looking at other outcomes.
Germany reversed it in the 1930 but they are seen as evil so now you’re supposed to just go extinct and smile about it and be replaced
Seems to be holding up well. But not the comments.
Would love to see Peter sit down w/ Ray Dalio. I think ray would benefit.
I would pay for that Lmao
@JJ France what happened to his dad?
could listen to Peter every day and not get bored lol
Tool or fool
@@westleymanc Pool, Tim Pool....
thanks for the video
My only problem with many Zeihan interviews, what is his loss if he is wrong in his analysis when confronted with it. All the think tanks have this problem, they only sell to the audience that wants to hear what they want.
That is a sage observation. Nassim Taleb would agree with you that this is a huge problem, and that such people rarely if ever face consequences if they are wrong
Well, Peter didn't tell this interviewer/Vancouver audience what they wanted to hear. On the contrary, it's proof that the economy is more important than the left leaning virtue signalling, politically correctness of Canada. Ontario and Quebec do not want a pipeline going through their province yet they're more than happy to take the transfer payments from Alberta and Sask. Maybe they will change their minds when the cash flow from oil stops. It's not like it's any secret that Canada is a resource based economy.
Russia will have to use its military now or it won't have one worth using in 2 years.
He said that in 2012.
Brilliant.
Hmmm, you see that as accurate ? LoL
@@GrinchDec23 the guy is a complete loose cannon mixing some data driven solid points with wildly speculative ones based on assumptions nobody has the information to make and just treat both as having the same argumentative value. Its fascinating.
I understand why Protestants would find this surprising. Catholics have been promoting the family since forever.
The sound profile makes this valid information hard to absorb
“No one is really safe until everyone is safe”
This is no -sensical thinking . . . Impractical
Canadian socialist magical thinking.
Flying used to be non-sensical and impracitcal too
Collectivist ridiculousness..
Also why we are all saying how great Peter is ,
He's been absolutely wrong about the vaccines and that's been obvious for atleast 6 months and still we are talking about vaccines ??
It's experimental garbage still in trials, nothing but a control mechanism with Vax pass
@@joshuajames2425 ok boomer
@@realevilcorgi ok zoomer
Woha! Wait a minute. Peter states that the US will have 4 allies 5 years from now, UK, Australia, Japan and Singapore. What happened to Taiwan. Taiwan is the complex chip maker of choice to the USA. Is Peter seeing a demise of Taiwan?
its just one more of those wildly speculative, often seemingly improvised claims that he presents as serious, deeply researched analyses. He gets some right and some wrong but he is such a confident speaker!
For me it’s difficult to understand why January 6 was some sort of catastrophic event. While the last six months before that cities burned and I was only told those were peaceful protest
Your “leadership “ wasn’t under attack for those 6 months prior. The American “system” was “under attack” on the 6th. The truth is the Jan 6th protest smeared the mask off of the beast so that hopefully most Americans can see that the system protects itself and those old ideals of “the peoples house” etc are archaic lies today.
Respectfully disagree. The guy dressed up like an Indian wasn’t going to take over anything.
Zeihan is a great analyst but sometimes his political analysis baffles me. Literally no one views the Democrats as the Law and Order crowd. That is still overwhelmingly Republican. Nobody who is an reasonable gives a damn about January 6. The new Whopper is literally more impactful than Jan 6.
Accept the fact that the Millennials are now the largest voting Bloc and the vast majority of them regardless of race are democrat leaning. Realistically by 2030, Republicans are going to take a hard left and the pendulum that describes left and right will be very different. For example lgbtq which is something Republicans have opposed for a very long time is now starting to become accepted because pretty much every Millennial accepts it. Similarly, many other things will take the same route. What was once anti-conservative will now be the new conservative and that includes abortion. These are the last few years of the traditional Republican party and the Republican party is already taking a hard left on social issues, otherwise pornstars wouldn't be invited to the young conservative forums
Ontario and Quebec need to get lost and stop freeloading off the West. Canada should split at the Manitoba-Ontario boarder.
No offence...but do you think Manitoba & Saskatchewan generate net $$$ that go to Ontario & Quebec?...heck, I'm not even sure Alberta generates net $$$ that benefits Ontario & Quebec...though clearly that used to be the case in the "good ol days of oil".
@@captainelectron5426 Ontario and Quebec are net recipients of provincial equalization payments, Saskatchewan and Alberta are net contributers, and have been for a long time. We would be better off without the former.
I wish to suggest to the new nation of Western Canada…the denim top to bottom as the national folkloric dress.
With Canada taking in so many immigrants it's hard to believe growth will be so low
Not fast enough.
In the future with even India birthrates slowing the only surplus people would be African. I can foresee a time that competition between the great powers for African labor becoming very high. That would put the US in a bad place for that competition when our demographics crash because of our history
@@redcoltken the US is never going to struggle for labour. The entire South American continent full of people who will move, even as Mexico eventually equalises with US pay rates. Also, no African could care less about US history. The US means a better life for 99% of them.
@@samdunn717 Birthrates in Latin America and South America are crashing. I can see short term Venezuela shifting - but in the long term its still Africa.
@@redcoltken Your assuming the trend will continue linearly. The birth rates have rebounded in some western nations already.
Why keep saying NAFTA instead of the current USMCA treaty?
Good point
It rolls off the tongue better. USMCA looks like a trading block that is exclusively North American - I think Peter sees a pan global trading block that includes the UK and Australia. Something like a loose alliance between the Anglosphere, Latin North America and the Caribbean and parts of Asia. NAFTA sounds more accurate even if its obsolete.
@@redcoltken I prefer USMCA over NAFTA for accuracy sake.
@@redcoltken NAFTA is exclusively North America lol
@@redcoltken Latin North America? So Mexico? Lol
Pursuing safety as the ultimate goal will strangulate your economy
The Chinese vaccine is 57.5% effective against symptomatic COVID-19 and 91.7% against severe disease four weeks or longer after one dose. There are better ones but it can do the job.
I don't trust Peter Zeihan:
When someone is talking or giving advice about a subject that I know little about I try to hear if they speak about something that I do know something about. I also have the benefit of hindsight.
He was wrong on the war on terror (search FOX news).
He cherry picks statistics that are in US favour. I agree the US has a lot of benefits stemming from its geography (Agro business + water transportation + two ocean's).
At the same time it's my impression that the US government is sacrificing the middle of the country for the benefit of Wall Street and the tech sector in California.
There is no American disengagement from the world!
The US is playing its strongest card in my opinion -the military.
It can force its will on weaker countries.
Saudi Arabia, UAE et al reinvest a part of it's oil profit at Wall Street and in London. In return the US protect the Gulf dictator's against its population.
Concerning Japan, what impact did the Plaza accords have on Japanese economy?
I think the Petrodollar will fall but for now there's no credible replacement.
bad audio mic 🎤!
Friend, neighbor, family and economic partner are good ways to describe Canada.
In all the discussions about population crashing from these global political experts, I've never once heard them even mention in passing the massive number of abortions worldwide as a contributing factor.
You could fill 25 cities the size of L.A. with all the children that were aborted in the U.S. alone since Roe v Wade.
If you put them all in one state, that state would have 20% more people than California and be the most populous state in the nation.
Did you listen? It is families who chose whether or not to have children. Back in the '70s, pre-legal abortions and wide-spread availability of the pill, there was always a way, even if it had a high maternal death rate. Back-street abortions caused untold deaths of many women, who may have gone on to have families - when the time was right. Banning legal abortion does nothing.
Adapting to smaller populations - ceasing the mythical goal of "eternal growth rates". We're already consuming a planet and a half of resources a year - taking more out than we put in - and it's getting worse.
Many people are putting off having children because (a) they cannot afford to (b) they can see the impact on the environment of growing populations (esp. in the US where you consume almost three times the average) and (c) they can see that a minority of people are making the world a worse place to live instead of living up to Christian teachings and trying to make it a better place - for everyone.
I enjoy these interviews, I truly do, but is anyone else disquieted at least a little bit by the fact that so many of them feature people who seem to be broadcasting from my grad school dump of an apartment in Allston, Mass? Painted hinges, no molding , no decorations, poor acoustics…. One wonders if afterwards they dine on Raman and then take the bus to their second job as a Customer Service Specialist call center assistant manager.
Love the Massachusetts sense of humor I’m a Masshole myself and been listening to Zeihan for a couple of years and he is pretty accurate on most occasions.Love the description of your Apartment
I do my Market analysis with a geopolitical point of view, influenced by Mr. Zeihan , I’m doing awesome . I also read his ex boss , came to the conclusion that Mexico is getting gentrified .
Q: from 5:43. he states anyone dependent on Chinese MFG is about to get hosed ..... if Chine produces 90-95% of our Antibiotics and other medicines would the US not be hosed?
Audio quality is shit. What the hell is he saying at 15:36? "Canada doesn't have a working asdfhlkjaftayadsfty right now?"
Z walked a finer line during the Trump years. Now he throws Trump under the bus and uses all Trump's talking points as if they were his own, totally new and never-before-tried even.
*PETER ZION...I bet* 🤔
Canada: Justin Zoolandeau has really pretty hair and the cutest socks. UwU
'How does coof effect equality and climate change?' Lolcow Canada
Peter was calling this before the Pandemic. Kind of like he had insider information. Maybe it was his work at Stratfor?
Stratfor has ties with the State dept and other agencies, and I know that they connected are in some soft way with Peter to this day - so maybe?
@@redcoltken stratfor is a think tank and many of the people who work for stratfor are ex state department people.. so of course..
Anyone who understands demography saw it coming
Cuba’s CIGB has also teamed up with colleagues in China to work on a new vaccine called Pan-Corona, designed to be effective against different strains of the coronavirus. The idea is that this vaccine will stimulate generation of antibodies by using parts of the virus that are conserved rather than those prone to variation (alongside parts directed at cellular responses). if this woorks it will be the best one out there.
I'd like to see both parties nominate terrible candidates so a moderate could win as a 3rd party. We need a mediator that's a real leader and I think that could do it.
(coulda had Tulsi)
He doesn't answer to the questions. ahahah he just say his thoughts without taking in consideration the questions
I can’t wait to shake Mr. Zeihan’s hand
when establishment types discuss the world as a chessboard, we know who they think of as pawns.
Canada not a strategic ally??? Where does the USA gets most of its IMPORTED … water, oil, electricity, uranium, potash … with an eye on lithium, etc, etc, etc and, auto parts? Some strategist and futurist.
mRNA isn’t a new technology, it’s old (though the logistics to get it to people is newer).
8 billion humans on a planet that has zero supply lines outside of the sun.
Relax
"...Ukraine is moving towards to democracy & Kazakhstan moving to totalitarianism..." 😆
this "expert" totally delusional he doesn't know subjects he is talking about. I guess he gets his knowledge from news headlines only.
Feel like conversation between two 5th graders. LOL.
Ilk, "loud and proud"... A little remiss on the understanding of what people in Math and Science think as well.
Won’t we in the developed world just give way to the country that has the largest young population.
Wars are fought by 20 year olds. If Pakistan has 10x the 20 year olds they win
As an example
Great overview but to omit the likely destruction of the current monolithic federal Govt structures in western nations is a pity. Would have liked to hear his view. With institutional collapse and redefinition ahead, big govt will not go untouched. Cheers
this guy is about 100% wrong on China.
i dunno 5+years ago he told us the lights would go out in china first and they would run out of food and they would descend into isolationism and their housing market would collapse
all of that is happening right now
@@007kingifrit 5+ years ago Chinese economy was at 12 trillion today 16.7 trillion. If you watch mainstream media China supposedly self destructed 20 years ago. This guy is not predicting anything, this is his Wishful thinking
@@Ben-vr6qz that's a misleading measure as china lies about their GDP numbers. they raise it by trading debt with themselves and offering bad loans abroad to keep their people employed
its all gana come down
@@007kingifrit ya find an “objective” indicator that fits your Narrative.
@@Ben-vr6qz real analysts know there is no such thing as objective. its a little boy's understanding of life
the chicoms specifically select ways to move and manipulate their GDP that defies measure......because it defies measure
This guy is so wrong about President Trump.
Your guest today is the newest Jew darling, Peter Zion~!
Demographics, immigration, exporting jobs, all major factors, along with debt. Canadians seem to be overly blue pilled and over educated, way too over educated, way to leftist. Similar to Australia, exporting commodities to survive. What do Canadians really make, in manufacturing?
Thank you for this. Evident in the interviewer’s statements
@@fr0stmourn3 I was under the impression this is about Canada. I am a neighbor of Canada in MN. We are not on the same page. Should have said Australia exporting commodities to survive. Sorry. Peace.
Australia makes good beer and wine
... beaver pelts and maple syrup..
Canadians make mortgage loans... beautiful elaborate mortgage loans backed by building restrictions and excess immigration of high skill workers and the global wealthy...
The word geopolitics appeared in vocabulary about 1895 with the anglo french allia`nce invasion of China and Vietnam the new world order.The word is obsolete no space station? no men?.The emergence of the realigned world order and sovereignty and accountability will have profound effect no more geo politics.
Peter we don’t know what happened on6 January
ZERO percent growth? The central bank is counting on and must have 2% growth in order to make a profit on their fiat currency scheme. at zero percent growth there is no way to pay the interest on the national debt. The currency of Canada will fail. Banks will fail. Ouch!
Basically, you can't run a worldwide empire so let's split the world into two blocs. Great.
A New Cold War: Global Strategy
Fake war to build Skynet.
Checked out African demographics recently…
I don’t wanna have kids with the women I date, I’d rather have a dog. My dog is of an ultra loyal breed, it follows me around, is thankful when I give it bones to chew. Meanwhile the women today will likely leave you because they are bored. Dogs are clearly superior.
Yeah, a dog is superior in many ways
I check out when I see Peter Zeihan aka Mr. Wishful thinking
Bye.
Ukraine is moving towards democracy? Lol. Democracy is where leaders are installed while they try to get you to believe you actually had a say. How did Zelenki get there Peter? Or Biden for that matter.
They could pay us more so we can afford kids
What he says about the republican party is simple not true. Pure invention. The rest is very interesting.
I am not persuaded by the quality or objectivity of Peter Zeihan’s analysis on the economic prospects for China versus America and its allies. Too much weight is given to the demographic arguments as a driver of China’s decline, as many Western countries are facing a significant drop in population and productive capacity.
Anti immigration politics are gaining in strength and act as a drag on the US, UK, and EU growth. Like Japan, many countries will have to accept less growth-oriented models of development. China appears to be putting its focus on high tech advancement and policies to reduce wealth disparities.
In the West, wealth disparities, housing, education, and health affordability, declining democracy, and drug dependence will continue to drive internal political disruption and disorder.
Neither China nor America is close to collapse. Yet, this superpower competition is likely to be equally damaging to America as China. As Americans, we should focus on getting our own house in order by improving the conditions of life and opportunity for people to succeed. People around the world are starting to seriously question the American model of development as something to look up to.
America sux.
Stopped watching after "Ukraine is going towards democracy"..
This guy seems to think that the pandemic and the vaccines are real. LOL.
Looking a little different these days.
Unlimited growth is the strategy of a cancer cell.
LOL
Again another ridiculous cliam from him that Ukraine is going in the direction of democracy. Even tho a lot of what he says makes sense its these few over the top absurd things that he seems to believe that make him lose credibility and makes it difficult to take anything else he says seriously
Compare this guy to Tom Luongo.
What a loose canon zeihan is. Solid data driven analyses mixed in with wildly speculative claims as if they have the same argumentative value. He gets some right, some wrong and present interesting perspectives but its really not something to be taken as gospel and even less to be used for any strategic planning.
Well, great interview, and he spoke about so much important things that are going on, from demography to American disengagement. But here are a few remarks from me where I disagree.
1. He didn't say a word about inflation and about huge goverment debts. But this is a big story (may be a very big story).
2. At the moment it doesn't look like a center-left candidate in US can win next election. Biden ran his campagn as a moderate, on a promise to bring unity and now his administration acts as radicals. The same trick will not work next time - it is going to be much harder for a democratic moderate to win.
Doesn't seem like he understands Canada's strategy to deal with our demographics and hence our economy. A strategy that appears to be working quite well.
Time will tell if we grow our economy faster or if Mexico does. Seems far fetched to assume Mexico will
If by working you mean become a joke of a nation and a third world country then yes Canada is doing very well in that regard.
If you want an economy of the future you have to have highly educated people, invest in automation and learn to deal with a growing elderly population, if you think immigration is going to solve all that the way canada or western Europe is doing it your wrong.
You can have immigrants for sure but you have to be way more selective and critical about them, not just let anyone in and punish anyone who speaks out against it.
@@golagiswatchingyou2966 the vast majority of immigrants we let in are through postsecondary programs, who can only stay in the country with no criminal record or issues of note, followed by rich individuals willing to invest.
Our population as a result is one of the most educated if not the most educated in the world. So it's working very well.
We will see if Mexico or USA can keep up, but seems doubtful at this point.
@@dhagos not sure if that's correct with Justin Trudeo who I believe wants to raise immigration to very high levels to the point of not being able to assimulate them into canadian culture, though they probably do a better job than the USA or parts of western Europe does.
@@golagiswatchingyou2966 We are aiming for 400k immigrants a year(just hit that record in 2021). 230k from our economic category which includes graduates from post secondary, workers in fields with shortages, and investors. 100k that are sponsored by families (people bringing their kids and parents etc.). The family would sponsor them and would need to show financial ability to take care of them.
He has increased the number of refugees we let in to 70k, or 17.5% which is higher than it typically is. But unlike Europe we do decide which refugees can come into the country. We don't have boarders to worry about, so it's much more orderly.
We've expanded our work permits recently, that's the biggest change. But looking at our immigrants, 2/3 own a house within a few years and earn a good salary.
We changed our laws to attract international students, if you go to school here you get a 3 year work permit. Following which you should qualify for citizenship. It's worked well.
The plan is pretty well thought out and well designed. About 1/3 professionals are immigrants at this point (doctors, nurses, dentists etc.). Which should help support the aging population. As needs arise new fields of workers are permitted special work visas. Just in case schools aren't producing enough.
Don't be fooled by the politicians and acting they put on. It's mostly a show to keep us entertained lol. We have a minority government so Justin can't pass anything without support from other parties.
@@dhagos I would like to see a more permanent solution to the aging problem, not just "bring more migrants" which is not really a solution but more like a kick the can down the road type of solution.
That being said the way you explain it does make it seem a lot more orderly, pragmatic compared to most of western Europe or the southern border in the USA right now.
I would point out however that Canada does not have a very large population in relation with their size and having more and more immigrants might make it harder to assimulate them all, perhaps it's different for former colonial nations since everyone there used to be an immigrant but here in Europe it's much more sensitive, seeing as Europe is largely made up of ethnostates, fought wars for their existence and has a more blood and soil type of history or tendency compared to Canada.
Things do really suck these days, many people long to the good old days or a future that's not currently on the table.
NO Gen-Xer should have that hair. Almost as bad as having a man bun or a ponytail
Gatekeeper
@@sparksj20 you got me I just thought he kind of looked a little bit like farquaad or little Lord Fauntleroy.. he is a genius though
@@WGPower_Nonchalant_Cafe you're good man. I enjoy to be an occasional troll.
It looks terrible imo
I don't see anything wrong with that hairstyle. I'd prefer it over the man bun and pony tai loll
@@Bearded.Jim1989 yeah it does look better but still bad. @Everyday Camping, thoughts?