We need to de-gamblify economy systematically. Individuality of individual level resistance to gambling is never gonna be enough. I don't know how would be best way to do it but we need to do it.
@@matrixfull the evilites pull the plug when they choose to pull the plug. They cause recessions so they can buy at the bottom. Only the Evilites at the very top know when. They have to repeat the cycle! to multiply their money.
hi, just got your video recommended to me, and I noticed you repeatedly asked "why couldn't we see it coming ?" "why does it keep happening" ? and it's true, to most people it's unpredictable, but it just so happens that we know why it happens, we know what is the reason it keeps happening and we know how to get rid of it, there's an interesting book you could probably read that was written in 1867, it's called "the capital" and explains this cycle in a way that might interest you
The disastrous decision to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. To prevent a future catastrophe, Dodd-Frank and this Act both need to be revived right away. What happened with SVB is just the start of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current problem.
I think SVB was attempting to restructure their bond holdings. Yes, they would lose money if they sold their low-yield bonds. However, they were attempting to make up for it by repurchasing bonds on the open market at the higher interest rate.
The SVB scenario warns that the effects of the Fed's rate hikes are still being felt, despite the economy's so far successful resilience. Investors need to be cautious about the upcoming inevitable in situations like these. I'll suggest hiring a financial advisor because you don't have to act on every forecast. For a time, I've been using this as my backup strategy.
Would you please let me know how I might use their service to get in touch with this particular coach? You seem to know everything, unlike the rest of us.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.
American humorist and writer Mark Twain is frequently credited with the aphorism: “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Which means, while details change, circumstances change, settings change, names change, similar events will essentially recycle.
I deeply question the names changing part. I feel it's much more likely that there is a very small group of people pulling the world's strings and they have been doing it for hundreds of years. (well their families so... I guess technically, the names do change)
Our economy is facing challenges due to uncertainties, housing problems, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the lingering effects of the pandemic, leading to instability. The rising inflation, slow growth, and trade disruptions require immediate action from all sectors to restore stability and promote economic recovery.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand encounter, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020 just after the pandemic to date.
This is definitely considerable! Do you think you could suggest any professionals or advisors I can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.
Absolutely,Lucia Alicia Cruz is the FA I use. Just google the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you for sharing this. I took the time to Google the individual you mentioned, and after reviewing her resume, it is evident that she is a seasoned professional. I have reached out to her and am eagerly awaiting her response.
I came to the US in 2003. Around that time and for a very few years, I saw some ads that were very confusing about getting a second mortgage to go on vacation or pay for credit card debt to access the "excess equity" in your house. I always found it very confusing that this kind of thing was being promoted.
It is still being promoted to this day. American culture is weird with debt. Somehow they think you need to find that edge where you can spend as much money as possible while having barely enough to pay the interest. One emergency is enough to topple them down.
So did I. Usury as speculative financial instruments...Rabbai Alan Greenspan's gematrian economic tools, derivatives and fractional reserves sliced a baked bean many times garnished with a ground peppercorn. His Chabad friend Janet Yellen ? " ABORTION IS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY! " Therefore? Invest in human sacrifice for Adrenochrome and body parts ...companies. Plasma companies. Harvesting humans . The word " Mortgage " ....Mort/ gage. Hey hey my my dear goyyim. The culprits are cultists men dressed like women.
I bought in 1995 and again in 2006. In 95 I needed a 20pc deposit and could borrow up to 3.5 times my salary. In 2006 it was 10pc and 4.5. And they offered me a bank loan for the 10pc. So a 100pc loan at a less favourable rate. Never mind that I basically couldn't afford the resulting monthly payments
Best peace of advice I ever received about wealth was in my early twenties. Here it is. "Building wealth, real wealth, is boring. It not fast and it's not difficult. It's being disciplined and living off less than what you earn, using the difference for a rainy day fund and investing in broad based mutual funds and/or index funds". It's a snooze fest and it's unsexy
@@ccgrider1014 it certainly does. I'm now in my 40s, I do not live paycheck to paycheck as so many others. A car repair is no reason for me to panic and have been able to help my kids with college.
That, or be in a very lucrative career or start a successful business, both of which require a huge amount of work. The point still stands - it’s not a free lunch.
@Manuel Castanon one needs to aquire a marketable skill and there are plenty of immigrants who come to us who do just that. Further, one needs to create margin in their budget. A full 1/3rd of Americans have a car payment and the payment is on avg $525 for a used vehicle. $525/ month invested in an s&p index fund for 20 years makes one a millionaire. Make moves or make excuses
At this moment, things appear to be odd. Inflation is reducing the value of the US dollar, but it is strengthening in comparison to other currencies and commodities like real estate and gold. People are switching to the dollar because they believe it is safer. I worry that the rising cost of living may cause the value of my retirement savings to decline.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Several individuals minimize the importance of counsel until their own feelings become overwhelming. A few summers ago, following a protracted divorce, I needed a significant push to keep my firm afloat. I looked for licensed advisors and found someone with the highest qualifications. She has contributed to my reserve increasing from $275k to $850k despite inflation.
'Laurelyn Gross Pohlmeier' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
@@roysdonjr I know that book. How does it help me though regarding wanting to quit society for good? Doesn't the book advocate for social revolution rather than abandoning it if I remember correctly?
@@matthewcarroll2533 Perhaps, but that's not very informative or convincing as it doesn't explain the actual mechanism. Greed is definitely a part of things, but is far from the whole story.
Greed is equally present regardless of the state of the economy. It's factored into the way economies work, and the regulations that facilitate and constrain economic activity. "Bubbles" make speculation pay well (until they burst), and often make it accessible to more people. But is buying in a rising market greedy? Do you know anyone who _wouldn't_ do it if they had some spare cash?
I used to think everybody went broke during the Great Depression and other major crashes but they didn’t… Some made millions, I also thought everybody went out of business during these times but they didn’t, some went into business, there's always depression/recession for some people and there's always a good time for others, it's all about perspective. My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $400k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
first step is discovering loopholes to generate gains during volatility, It is very possible to retire big time from the current market condition without having to hold stocks long term.
I must be an oddball. I have not studied economics, finance in general. Not surprising, but what makes me a real oddball is the fact I actually listened to my parents, grandparents, aunts and uncles. They gave me a wealth of information on poverty (Great Depression) and the preservation of wealth. By listening to them, I was able to avoid the trap of "Get rich quick" and see the patterns of the early 1900s repeating again as early as the 1970s. Anyone who doesn't study history is bound to repeat it.
Well to avoid you waste your time and miss information about hystory just trying to follow the the money strand and reread history by following that path
Studying history (which was my major) even though I loved many parts of History, economic history and spotting trends was probably the most fascinating part. Yes learning from you ancestors is a great way to learn what to do and what not to do. The thing about all fashion savings is that its only a good investment if Interest Rates are high. If they are very low then you only loose money from saving and you miss the opportunity to access capital at very low rates which would give you the chance to do things that you could never try if your always preserving what you have.
Some people did foresee the 2008 Crisis. Read Anne Pettifor "The Coming First World Debt Crisis", written in 2006. It's one of the most thought-provoking books I've ever read. She foresaw the 2008 economic crisis 2 years before it happened.
I wrote TWICE to Lloyds bank in 2007 telling them that if they did not stop throwing money around like Confetti then the shit would hit the fan. Their answers were derisory, the rest is history.
So how exactly can we guard against the coming financial reset for 2024? Like what are really the best strategies to make our portfolio recession proof against the incoming financial reset? I'm very worried about my $110k stock portfolio.
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.
I agree, having the right plan is priceless. My portfolio is well-suited for any market and recently doubled since early last year. My CFP and I are aiming for a seven-figure goal, which might take another year to achieve.
Vivian Jean Wilhelm is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Fed reserve and the treasury is not bothered about stock capital market. They are more concerned about the treasury bond market. They fear the bond market may become dysfunctional and illiquid. Bond yields are one of the important parameter that influences stock market. All stock pundits fail to mention how the bond yields influence stock market. My main concern now is how we are going to achieve all of that given that the market has been a mess for most of the year. I already lost $23,000
@Blayson Quinn Totally true, The market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings. I started investing in 2020 and that same year I made a profit of over $758,000, and all I was doing was basically following the guidance of a portfolio advisor, she does all the hard work and I just copy.
@Anderson Varley KATHERINE DUFFY BURKE. She is one of the highest rated portfolio-advisors with a good track record. She is also verifiable through various advisory bodies. Lookup her fullname on the web
Bonds are junk. They enable statism. Fuck that shit and the parties who think they are owed something if the state can't pay it. That's their fault for being dumbasses.
Things, money, more "things"... filling the void, being on the safe side at all and/or any cost. One day we might finally learn as a community that THIS is not what life is about, they are distractions, illusions in the best case, with a skin deep meaning. Until then we will continue to go through this cycles over, and over again or, until one of them finally beats us permanently.
I have considered that; if we solve energy scarcity, bring the costs of goods and services also down to nearly being free via automation, A.I., robotics, and mining resources in the solar system bringing the cost of resources down to nearly free, there would be little benefit to exploiting the masses, and everything to gain by empowering the masses so they can be highly educated, highly skilled, with a high satisfaction with the quality of their lives, as this would create the sort of environment that would reward society via many more artists, musicians, scientists, and even a greater number of those contributing to society on a more social level. I just can't decide if this much better scenario is more plausible than the dystopian future seen in many sci-fi stories. Things look pretty distopean in America right now; I just hope we can make the changes that can help us avoid becoming a distopean landscape in America or elsewhere around the globe. I thought the Middle East or elsewhere had a higher chance of such a nightmare future; but sadly it looks like America will show the world how even a strong Democracy can fall into authoritarianism and fascism, when select individuals and the groups they belong to are able to grab political power.
The wrong types of people/ groups gaining political power is a very big issue. Recently, however, I've been more focused on the source of the problem being sociopathic levels of greed... and then the society that honors and admires these people as if they are heroes to be looked up to. There is a lot to be said about how a few sociopathically greedy individuals poison both their generations and future generations to come. Unfortunately, the people most able to 'directly' stop them, only want to join that level of greed instead. The other point raised was education...forget about creating a complete Utopia; the fact that countries don't prioritze getting higher education into the hands of more people is alarming. (some countries are better than others.) A properly prioritized country would be able to provide top-level higher education without it leading to crippling amounts of debt for the young. Economics is the dismal science, but only b/c greed incentivizes powerful people to only think of the financial aspects while ignoring the human aspects.
You forgot the a big part of the stock speculation issues in the late teens early 20s was corporate buybacks that make stocks look like they have more value than they really do. This is why corporate buybacks were banned after the Depression. However in the late 80's or early 90's a bunch of corporations convinces politicians that it would be good for the economy. So we are on track to repeat this mistake.
Great video, but a couple minor corrections: -The Dutch revolutionized finance, but they didn't invent the futures contract, we have records of futures being used as insurance and investment back to the code of Hammurabi in ancient Babylon -The east India trading company was chartered by the British and is a separate entity to the Dutch west India company that was involved in the tulip bubble. -Sub prime loans are those given to individuals with low credit scores at a higher than market rate to account for the added risk to the lender. Loans who's rates change to a higher rate at a later date (the definition given in the video) are referred to as balloon loans or teaser rate loans.
A balloon loan has a small monthly payments and a large payment at the end of the loan term. The mortgages that he and you are thinking of are ARMs, adjustable rate mortgages are mortgages that have a low interest rate for a 5-7 year period and then adjusts upwards every year after up to a certain cap.
Good points! I think a major part of the problem is that when someone figures it out they try to profit individually from it instead of raising alarm bells about the problem.
Michael Burry (one of the guys who the Big Short was written about) repeatedly tried to warn regulators and they just didnt care ahead of 2008. He was one of the first to spot the pattern. I dont fault him for profiting off of it. He didnt cause the problem.
People raise the alarm all the time because the system by design is unsustainable and will regularly lead to crashes...the problem is that most people don't want to listen so the system doesn't change
I can't get enough of your Company Forensics videos guys. I saw the quality of the content grow into excellence over time and never get boring. The quality of the production, the stories, the knowledge, and the insights are just the perfect combo. Awesome job guys! Really!
I recall some American friends had a hat box. They used it to store a mound of preapproved credit cards that just turned up in the mail, unrequested. They were fiscally responsible, but I expect thousands were tempted to just go on a binge. Who should be blamed for such a ridiculous scenario?
congress. junk mail was mandated by congress as it generates huge tax revenues, so much so congress gives junk mail only a farthing of a cent stamp prices so junk mailers can send billions of mailers despite the post office having to spend full price on expenses.
I'll admit I just watched the video to see how close to the truth you'd be. You got it right as far as the economics behind it. Leverage kills. I'd add to that though, by saying the psychology behind over leveraging is greed. I'm most convinced now than ever that success in investing is found within my own mental discipline. Stay zero leveraged, control risks, be ready to buy after everyone sells. Hopefully we don't ruin our economy completely. That's the hardest risk to prepare for.
Everyone is screaming about a forthcoming crisis and it's getting me worried. How can I protect my investment portfolio of around 800K. I don't want to get burnt out.
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.
This is why I entrusted a fiduciary with my investmnt decisions. Many underestimate advisors until emotions lead to losses. My advisor crafted a tailored strategy aligning with my long-term goals, guiding entry and exit points for the equities I focus on. This has grown my portfolio to over $850k. My personal best so far
It's no mystery to me why history keeps repeating itself. I remember seeing people who went through bankruptcy and lost multiple houses in 2008, 2009, and 2010 immediately jump back into debt the first moment they could, and start the cycle all over again. Too many people just don't learn.
There's a huge diff between going into a fixed rate 30yr mortgage on what you can afford (even though its debt) vs an ARM on a 3rd home. Smart responsible people do the former, dipshits do the later. Dont lump those together.
Selfish fueled greed is the first and greatest fundamental economic cancer. I've worked in the financial industry since 1984. And I've seen this simple truth played out countless times: The borrower is slave to the lender.
Very nice video. Weirdly I had a conversation with somebody I've known for 15 years about the coming recession just over half a year ago, he insisted that recessions and major stock market crashes were a thing of history, and only minor corrections would happen from now on. I was flabbergasted, how does thinking like this come up every time, that it's different this time?
Haha! Gordon Brown, chancellor of the UK (Treasury Secretary in US, I believe) at the time of the 2008 crash, shortly before it claimed that their Labour party had 'put an end to boom and bust'. He was the CHANCELLOR and he made a statement like that on the eve of arguably the biggest 'bust' in history. We mere mortals don't stand a chance with the guesswork available to us. At our level, caution, moderation and scaling back aspirations (trying to be 'financially comfortable' rather than wanting to be crazy, 'Bezos' rich in a space of 5 years) are the keys.
This time actually is different. It will be so much worse of a recession than before, because the US has printed more money since 2020 than ever before.
Grasshoppers-Henry Ford fulfilled contracts for the Nazi Party in Germany for De Fuhrer. The Chase National Bank offered the American Nazi Nationals to buy marks with dollars at a discount after 1929. The US is now the largest clearinghouse for foreign investors, in US history. The banks only pay a fine for 'breaking bad', part of doing business, deregulation from the Reagan Era forward. Berkshire Hathaway is the leader in house flipping/bank foreclosures and assurance deals. It's common knowledge the first 5 years of homeownership, paying down the principle is the first goal, but there is no guarantee of employment with two incomes, either. Pensions have become a joke since 2008, more have gone into receiverships, mine was one. How many of you have taken Econ 101? Live below your means and within your seems.
Its pretty simple.. Our government borrows its money from a private corporation who has never been audited to show that they actually have what they are lending us. The interest they charge for that money is paid by our federal income taxes. The principle does not get paid and the national debt keeps getting worse because we dont realize or understand that we can just create our own money without borrowing it from anyone (fiat currency). And then the kicker.. the money in existence is only the principle that is borrowed. The money to pay the interest does not exist therefore anyone who has a loan is competing with others with loans to pay their interest. That means that bankruptcy is built into the system. Our monetary system cannot exist without it. END THE FED.
The one thing you are not really talking about in regards to the 1929 crash is that the fed artificially lowered Interest rates, for political reasons. The reason so many people where investing is that since interest rates where so low, everyone was getting loans, to invest in anything , since normally it would be hard to beat the market, or pay back loans but since rates were so low everyone was taking them to increase production on farms, factories, and stocks, tons of things which should have never had more capital pumped into them to expand operations, since they were confident that they could pay back the few percent loans so they made tons of stuff nobody wanted.
Ah-ha! The slip that summarizes it all: gamble, er, invest. When people put money on a risk/possibility as if it were a reality. Futures, margins, leverages, speculation, etc. Lesson: don't gamble more than you can afford to lose. In my circle, we saw what was coming, but we did not have a voice to warn anyone/we were discounted. A very nicely laid out explanation over all. Learned a bit more of history, too.
I was getting my econ degree in the mid-2000s at Boise State and we were all talking about the upcoming housing crash. We saw it coming as early as 2006 and it was "just" a state university. Yale didn't see this coming, but we did. You got the story totally right. But there was more to it. There was also a racial component. In class we listened to a podcast interviewing people who'd recently worked at mortgage banks. The guys being interviewed were from a company that apparently targeted black homeowners with sub prime loans, knowing that the whole system was about to crash and and telling themselves that it was okay because it was black people getting screwed. Finance types are the worst.
Everyone doing mortgage underwriting saw it as early as 2005, for reasons the video doesn't cover because they don't know what a subprime loan is. See calculated risk for the writings of Tanta (RIP) if you want to know how it all went down.
Huh? This is BS. Stop being a crying victim. If I am a businessman, I don’t care what your color is. As long as I make profits, you can be any colors you want, even a rainbow. So sick of this “black” made-up sh*t.
You missed something about the tulips 🌷. It was the bulbs that people went crazy over betting if it was going to be a exotic looking tulip when it was grown in the spring. People bet on the bulbs and lost all of there money when it turned out to be regular tulips. Same thing repeats in time with different materials. But it’s all just people wanting more out of life. Everyone wants more just don’t know how to get it. the stock market or gambling is one of the first things people go too to solve that problem.
The whole video tries to ignore the elephant in the room. In the tulip mania only people who were gambling got hit. In 2008 the whole world got hit. How is this possible? Shouldn't only the gamblers get hit? Normally yes. When the US government guarantees your mortgage there is no risk for the banks. If there is no risk you go all in. Everybody would. So speculators (not investors) push up the price until the bubble pops. But this time investors got hit because the government was gambling. And the pension funds thought the government wouldn't gamble with their money. if you thought this video was interesting, please look up what really happened. If your only source is this video you know less than before you watched the video.
in what way was the govt gambling? it's the first time I hear of them guaranteeing mortgages. I do know that that is a factor in the current student loan bubble but I've genuinely not heard of this before in mortgages. Are you referring to the moral hazard encouraged by previous times the govt bailed out institutions caught up in mortgage related money issues, maybe?
Yes. The shitty part is lack of skin in the game. You get burned irrespective of your actions. This has the 2nd order effect of effectively forcing one to speculate, exacerbating the issue. What is more important is to follow the money one step further and look at what incentivises a country/government to do so. Lobbying/interest groups. A government doesn't actively seek to shoot itself in the foot.
The fiat system is the biggest pyramid scheme the world has ever seen. It's so big and complex that almost no one on this planet sees it. Learn about bitcoin, you'll learn about money in the process and you'll never see the world the same way
I agree. He completely ignored the massive role the government has in manipulating (and ruining) the market in a way that affects us all, and which makes NO sense. To the point where, paradoxically, stocks went UP when employment went DOWN, because investors figured it meant the fed was going to have to stop raising interest rates. 😑
Your characterization of subprime is off. Subprime means the loan is not given to a prime borrower. It is somebody that does not have regular income. What you were describing is an option arm the arm stands for adjustable rate mortgage. This type of loan has a low, introductory teaser, and within few years, usually two years, it changes to a fixed rate, which is much higher than the teaser. What people were told was that they could refinance and get another option arm Within the two years, they high interest, interest rate and payment schedule.
It is surprising that the video doesn't mention the Glass-Stegall act of 1932 (and it hasn't been referenced in the comments either, so far). This was a legislative response to the excessive gambling that occurred and set up the conditions for the 1929 crash. Interestingly enough, this act was able to prevent major economic collapses right up until it was repealed in 1997. Removing these restrictions allowed the housing bubble to be created and, once again, we have a major collapse! A very weak and ineffective version of the original legislation was put back in, but it won't stop the next disaster.
No mention of FDR era regulations at all. But then again I suppose this is a general critique of the responsibility of the general population's (our) part in all of it.
"...the culprit may be staring right back at us" - Caya Thank you for being one of the few with the courage to publicly call this out. Pointing fingers is quite the trendy habit, but there's only one reflection in the mirror. 'Take some ownership' is such a refreshing message. Keep on SB team 🤘
... personal responsibility in a system where most of the people are literally under educated as to the nature of the problem? I mean preaching personal responsibility is nice... but the fact is most people don't actually KNOW the facts of why these systems collapse and thus literally cannot actually recognize the trap in order to avoid it. Fact is, it's the people who sell this shit to people who are under educated who are the real issue. Because the people SELLING these margins always know the nature of them, and their USUAL customers are people who don't have the education to understand the scam for what it is. Its the same as with any other pyramid scheme. He isn't saying that the general public is responsible... he's saying that We as the ones who learn about this stuff... the people who are almost always in a position to leverage our understanding of it either to exploit or halt exploitation who have the responsibility to call it out where we see it rather than participate in it as fellow gamblers.
In plain straight forward plain English is the fact that investing money in stocks is that IT IS A FORM OF GAMBLING NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE REAL CASINO GAMBLING IN LAS VEGAS BUT ONLY THIS TIME IT IS NOT IN LAS VEGAS, IT IS IN WALL STREET.
I majorly disagreed with that last one. I need a house, not for investment, but because I need a home to live. Rent + mortgages are tied together, we are forced to partake whether we like it or not.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
She's known as a 'Stacy Lynn Staples'. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field also widely recognized. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment.
I love the way that you underlined that the problem is not the stock market, the real estate, this one, that one...The problem is our relation with education, with information, we put so much attention on things not so important but we don't put attention on things that affect our life! We know the last girlfriends of Pete Davidson but we don't know how the world works, who we are, our goals, how to reach them... Great narative and great video! Keep up the good work🙏🏻
Yeah I remember when I came out about the strawman and how we're being taken advantage of through contracts and my parent didn't understand that but buying a 50,000 car and bragging to me about it is well within your capability. So.. yeah.
Since we're approaching April, one of the best months to buy stocks. I am currently holding north of $300k in a savings account waiting to invest in another huge opportunity.. Where would you invest this as of now?
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with strategies to hedge losses
Agreed, my portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% from early last year to date. I and my advisr are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
That would be Monica Shawn Marti. You should look her up, I say. To be honest, I almost didn't think I should, but I'm glad I decided to let someone handle growing my finances.
Life isn't fair. Wealth disparity is real. Inflation is up, wages are stagnant, recession is likely. But, complaining won't help you. Cut costs and spending choices. Build your skills and earn more. Learn how to invest and grow. Take control of your life.
I love this. Life isn't fair. You have to take responsibility and do everything you can to improve your situation if you're unhappy with it. The good news is that there are plenty of resources to build your skills and learn how to invest! Start today!
The challenges we face are unevenly distributed, no doubt about it. But we all have the power to choose how we respond (emotionally and through action). Choosing our responses wisely is how we can gradually tilt the odds more in our favor. That's right, I started investing sometime in 2018 and by late 2021, I pulled out a profit of over $750k with no prior investing knowledge or skill. I was basically just following the guidelines set by my Financial-Advisor. So you don't necessarily need to be a perfect investor or do the hard works, just have a professional who guides & mentors you.
@@MIchaelGuzman737 How can one find a Fiduciary Financial Advisor that can one help make good gains during this bear market and when the bulls finally arrive? I would not mind looking up the pundit that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
@@elizabethyork590 I am being guided by *LISA ELLEN SHAW* I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care supervision.
The biggest problem with low information investors is that they bet more than they can afford to lose in things they don't actually understand... so when things get choppy they don't have the stomach for it and pull out to save their asses. We need to teach people the fundamentals of investment and how to have a long term view as well as how to actually understand the risks and opportunities to the fullest extent. High school should have a required 4 year course that covers everything and has student's actually invest a small amount of real money so students can get a deep understanding of how this stuff works, plus what to look out for. It would be better for all of us.
You should use the word speculator when someone is gambling/guessing. And investor when someone is putting money in a productive asset. Everybody can learn about investing and you don't need a biased school to teach you investing. There are great websites and videos to teach you. Though this piece of propaganda is just to rile up the plebs.
People can't tolerate investing because they don't understand you can't just make money for doing nothing, and the places you can takes a lifetime to turn that money into anything reasonable. People are too impatient for that. If you want to make money "fast" then you need to use your capital to start businesses that provide goods and services to people. Most people are too lazy for that.
@@Ferdinand208 Only places that can afford pensions are governments since they can print money to give to people. Normal businesses don't offer them anymore because they're not sustainable.
The Fed is the problem. We went from fractional reserve banking to infinite reserve banking. The amount of money that can be lent no longer ties to how much is in the bank. The only way none of this would occur was if we had full reserve bank or the gold standard. Banks can on lend what they have. not 110% not infinite like we have now. Basically we are surviving because there is an inability for the banks to call in their loans, there is only an inability to create new ones due to the high interest rates. The only way we crash is when the money supply shrinks, which will not happen unless we return to fractional reserve banking which won't happen because the public debt far exceeds the real funds in people's bank account.
The responsibility of every individual, including ourselves, is definitely there. That said, some individuals have more responsibility than others. A large factor in the 2008 bubble was a (even today) little known regulation on bookkeeping, specifically how to tally physical assets. For a long time, the regulation was, that it had to be on the books at the value it was bought at. That means the value of a house was the amount on the bill of sale, not the amount on the bill of sale for the house next door. That was changed in the early 2000's so that physical assets could be tallied at market value. This allowed refinancing, which really made this so bad. In fact, I heard one analysis state that the crisis ended when the old standard was reinstated. That said, stupid decisions or mistake are always made by those in power. They are only human after all. We all must do our part, be vigilant and at the least, protect ourselves as best we can from any forming bubble. A good metric in my opinion is "if something seems to good to be true, it probably is." Does it mean I miss out on some opportunities? Pretty sure it does. On the other hand, my family is as safe as can be right now, in part because I knew something bad would happen when the money printer went brrrr from 2020 onwards.
yes, well there is plenty of mass delusion to go around at so many levels... the problem is, we will all likely suffer, though I am sure some may enjoy the carnage. Nothing like the Summer of Love* in 2020, though! Probably a lot worse in many areas. * - _Void where prohibited. Your mileage will vary._
@@drx1xym154 with Russia sabotaging wheat exports from Ukraine? You can bet on it. Lots worse. Sri Lanka is just a bit of a preview of what's to come with the combination of the war and China's lending stupidity. There's an insane amount of pain coming for all of us, but the developing world will be hit the worst.
Investment markets are the easiest way to achieve rarified levels of freedom. But countless optimists have miscalculated their risk tolerance, then make emotional decisions with money they can’t afford to lose, based on tips & public sentiment. Nothing is worth more than understanding one’s responsibility as a provider, and investing in self with skills that will always be in demand- especially when governments and banks can’t be trusted to maintain healthy fiscal/economic environments.
@@moniquet.6171 We bought land and are setting things up to be nearly self sufficient. Lots of money in gold and tangible assets. Some in stocks with a highly recommend brokerage at a more or less safe bank. As little money in Euros as possible (we're German). There's a storm brewing between the US recession, the Chinese real estate bubble and the war in Ukraine. I give it 50/50 that the world will change even more drastically in the coming year than between summer '19 to summer '20.
It was hard for us to learn anything back in 2008, because emotions were so high. There was so much finger-pointing, people were more focused on avoiding blame than actually taking steps to avoid the next crash. They just wanted to get back to the next boom and tell all their enemies that they were right all along. Our egos are the problem.
Emotions were high because the left's dear leader was nothing but emotion, he was the god the left had been waiting for. That's all they had, but emotions are mighty powerful. So, what did the right do? Negative emotion, Donald Trump! He actually did some positive things for America that were 100% overshadowed by his ego.
Warren Buffett has mastered what patience looks like. He has stuck to the markets, having a long term view on the markets. This is what I'm struggling to do, trying to learn how to not react to market news about inflation and all. I have currently set aside about $553k to put in the market now that prices are down. Any ideas?
It takes some gut to really remain in the market despite downturns and all. So just find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
@@Tsunaniis-j5l Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Australia property was unaffected in 2008. It has been on a 25 year bull run. Interest rates have tripled in the past few months and millions of mortgages refinanced in 2020 for sub 2% are due to have their fixed interest terms expire...
It might be because rich Chinese investors have nowhere safe to park their money but foreign real estate. Favourites of theirs include Vancouver and Australia. When Chinese money dries up it will probably be like the US + West Europe in 2008.
I am happy there are public sources of this kind of information and the "I am privileged" becomes "we are privileged" and then "none are privileged, because we all know and we do or we don't"
Great narrative, well done! Let’s face it the base root is the human trait we can’t overcome: Greed, number one and gluttony, pride and jealousy in no particular order.
You have nailed it! Financial foolishness is generational, and it occurs about every 70 to 100 years depending on longevity. Grandfather is old and times have changed. His son sort of listens to him, and he is a little more careful. The grandson says to himself, "The old man and pops don't know jack. The good times will never end!" Then everything goes to you know where. This time it is going to be worldwide, but don't listen to me. I'm just an old man at 77 who listened to my grandfather and my father. This is why I retired at age 45, have a net worth of 2.5 million after giving a half million to my son and daughter, have no debts and make $120K a year after taxes for just breathing.
It's not greed it's speculation. If we blame it on greed we blame it on no one. We have no solutions. This video is bad because it goes "oh well I guess people were dumb". No. We deregulated markets which allowed for this to happen.
@@jamestown4867 but you can affect speculation. You can't affect greed. So unless you plan on mass brainwashing people it's pointless to talk about greeed.
21:20 - you are confusing ARM (Adjustable rate mortgages) with Subprime mortgages (riskier borrowers, less likely to repay the loan) due to their lower credit scores. The problem with ARMs was that when the rates went up, so did these borrowers' monthly payments, which they then could not afford. All at the same time.
The worst part of all is that credit actually creates money, and no matter what some people will say, it does cause inflation of prices in the economy; credit creates more money circulating through the economy. When this credit slows down the whole thing falls down like a house of cards. I'm not fully supportive of the Austrian school of economics, but they at least point to the problems with credit (Austrian Business Cycle Theory). Famously, Austrian economics is associated with "neoliberalism" - the same school of thought people blame for today. The truth is, Austrian economics and 'neoliberal' thought has been successful in reducing Government spending and Keynesian economics, which had helped post-great depression, but very unsuccessful in regulating credit. Today we have the worst of both worlds and we really need a new economic system that is built from the ground up, without crazy amounts of credit artificially inflating people's monetary wealth and the economy.
My late father was being circumcised on Black Tuesday 1929, it was his Bris. His uncle who was holding him learnt that he had lost (a very large amount of money) and dropped him. This became something of a family joke.
Awesome video dude. I was fortunate enough to speak with several elders about living before during and after the 1930s depression. It was very intriguing to say the least. What's amazing is they did what they had to to survive and push through. Really inspiriting!! What makes today's problem is the treasury lady thinks hope will save us from a depression lol.
You appear to ignore the involvement of the Federal Reserve leading up to the 1929 stock market crash. Following the end of World War 1, the Bank of England had tremendous amounts of war bonds, many sold to the US through Morgan Bank, that it now had to pay out. Only the BofE didn't have enough gold in reserve to pay off the bonds, and even still, the BofE was seeing gold streaming out of its vaults to the US. So the head of the BofE contacted the head of the US Fed (formerly the head of Morgan Bank in the US) and they agreed that the US Fed should lower its interest rates, which would result in gold leaving the US and going back to England. In addition, US banks tied to the Federal Reserve would see lower interest rates, so they would borrow more money from the Fed - leading to more money in the US stock market.
@@nolesy34 You're extrapolating from something I didn't say, and you're doing it poorly. BofE didn't lose ALL of its gold following WWI, and the US didn't lose ALL of its gold in the 1920s. In addition, the US under FDR made it illegal for anyone but the US government to possess gold, which meant everyone turned in all their gold, or hid it, or got caught hiding it and were then sent to prison.
In all these situations you can take the following away: Don’t buy something you can’t afford Always have liquidity Don’t invest in anything you don’t understand Invest in things you understand fully Gold is a solid investment/protection against inflation
Gold has gone down in recent months even as inflation is soaring. He didn't mention the gold bubble on 1980, where it went from 250ish to 875 and everyone was sure it was going to 1000. A couple years later it was back to 300 and it was below 300 in the late 90s. Now it's around 1700 but that's only double the high from 40 years ago and around 5 times the average price. Inflation is more than that in most things and the stock market is over 30x what it was then
You can’t eat gold. If things tank, everyone who invested in gold will want to sell it along with everyone else. The value of gold drops. Nothing is secure. Always remember that. Food and shelter are the only things that count. Hopefully you are healthy.
As a guy thats into finance, loves trading, etc… this is one of the most wonderfully put together finance videos that I’ve ever seen. Really well done. Absolutely you have a new subscriber here… amazing.
A basic fact here is that every time “lending” is mentioned it means money creation from nothing by a private commercial bank. The Bank of England Q1 2014 Bulletin explains this. “Borrowing” is money creation. For loans, overdrafts, mortgages and credit card use. Thus loans create deposits. But we are lied to. On a massive scale.
That's never going to happen the Goverment is fine with companies buying hundreds of Millions of Dollars of property increasing prices and screwing the common man.
Citizenry as a collective own the land of the nation. You are merely leasing it from them. Did you create the land you own? Did you create the air you breathe, the water you drink?
Please watch the Big Short. Some people did see the housing crash coming. Those that saw it among other things they bought credit default swaps. And AIG sold 20x the amount of credit default swaps on mortgages than there were mortgages. This is important to understand. It was not the failure of mortgages that caused the financial impact, it was the size of the derivatives market. To understand it a different way, you buy a life insurance policy for yourself to pay your dependents in case you die. But then your neighbors know you have bad health that the insurance company doesn't understand and 20 of them also but a life insurance policy on you. But because they want to take care of your dependants but because they think the odds are in their favor that you will die and they will get rich. Likewise people saw the housing/mortgage problems and buying credit default swaps was a way they could "get rich"er. And foolish AIG knew people pay their mortgages so they kept thinking they were getting rich collecting premiums on the default swaps then things stayed coming apart, default rates started shooting up. AIG was next in line to fall and the Fed's stepped in and propped them up. But for brief moment credit matters froze. All the sudden liquidity dried up. And it wasn't just AIG and some wall street companies. Commodity prices crashed too. Oil came back to reality. Housing dropped. Things economically contracted hard.
Yes it was a good movie and sad reality If you can see the patterns like an autistic Alan and play it well good luck to you... I'm sure 200 million home owners wont mind
It's important to note that the US dollar at least was not Fiat money in 1929. We have different problems today along with the same problems. I saw this crash coming before the pandemic. The pandemic just altered the playing field a bit. Even back then a lot of analysts were saying that we were coming to the end of the road. In fact, some were saying it was already taking longer than they expected and a common line was, I had no idea how long the powers that be could keep kicking this can down the road. Well, we finally run out of road. And what's happening today is much worse than what happened in 1929 in the 1930s, but at least one order of magnitude. Buckle up.
@@athrowaway3487 you know, they're actually is something you can do about it. But you need to choose your side carefully. Meditate long and hard on the long-term effects of the politicians and policies you choose to support and protest against. When Hillary Clinton came to Seattle as first lady back in the 90s and pushed her nationalized healthcare baloney on our city, I was there with my three daughters. We were part of a crowd of 3500 plus people protesting what she was doing while a group of about 300 hand-picked people were in the area right in front of her with well designed and printed signs. I was able to actually get into that front section and was even given a sign which I rolled into a megaphone. One of the more fun things I yelled through the megaphone was after she promised something I would yell, "THANKS, MOM!" Thanks to our turnout in Seattle that day, followed by the one in Portland immediately after, the nationalized healthcare gauntlet was killed. Later I told my daughters that they made more difference that day than they could make in an entire lifetime of voting. And notice that there were more conservatives in Seattle and Portland then than there are now. They were nicer places back then. 😁
Maybe so, but can’t help but feel it’s target audience is 6 year old... incredibly juvenile and immature, to the point of being annoying; especially the singing...
when you buy stock on margin, you must have a margin account. This means that your stock is not in your name, it is in street name, and can be borrowed by short sellers. Margin accounts are the source of all short selling. A short seller (usually the specialist, also known as the market maker) borrows your stock and sells it on the open market with a promise to buy it back at a later date. So if the stock is borrowed and sold at 10 dollars, and the stock drops to 2 dollars, the short seller can "cover" which means they buy the stock back at the 2 dollar price, return the stock to the margin account it was borrowed from, and the short seller's profit is the difference or in this case 8 dollars.
Guys, thank you for your work in making this kind of content. I just wish everyone in the world would watch this and see that this kind of thing can be explained in a way they can understand. Maybe so many more people would wake up to the hype machines and the shady practices that suck so many people in, the world would be a much happier and more stable place to be. Thank you so much ❤️
Well spoken! I might be missing a bit about FED/other central bank's involvement in creating market cycles. The focus here was on Margin trading, FOMO and hopium. And that was very nicely formulated. 👏
When government allows institutions to take too much of people's money, shit hits the fan. Both government and institutions know very well what their actions and inactions will result in, they have the data and the smartest economists to tell them what will happen, but personal greed and corruption makes them blind and ignorant.
Taking shortcut often ends badly. Being part of crowd is main human flaw. Except when you go get back what yours from 1%. Then it's your last power left
I remember reading somewhere that in 2008 the US government relaxed rules against using money from criminal networks and a trillion dollars suddenly appeared to shore up failing banks and the stock market. They used drug, arms dealers, human trafficking money to "save" the economy.
I'm Dutch and I hate investments it brings out the worst in people. When people work for their income ( and I mean really work ) they stay humble and humane. Prosperity without work destroys more than it builds !
To my mind, we've been in a kind of pseudo-recession since the banking collapse, 2007/8. On paper, the GDP looked good sometimes, but many of the companies only existed on that paper. ('Zombie Corporations'). Employment seemed high, because people who are doing 2 or 3 jobs can be counted 2 or 3 times. Inflation looked low, because they rigged the stats, with the CPI instead of RPI, and dozens of more 'esoteric' tweaks I can barely understand. All the while, the 'real economy' was a flat line, and wages were actually declining. (You're probably aware that they've also redefined 'recession' now, to say we're not having one!) I'm not sure which is more alarming: the whole thing falling apart, so that we can eventually (around 2027?) get back to economic sanity again, or yet another can-kicking exercise, so we can continue pretending things haven't been unravelling for a decade or more...
@@Ferdinand208 True, but there's a wide spectrum of situations which could be described as 'no growth': the concern is that we're arguably overdue for a full-on crash/depression...
Having traded on the markets with small amounts, studied every popular book, watched every TH-cam video on the subject to 'read trends,' only to lose it all, i realised there was only one guarantee and that is.. there is no sure thing. I'm sitting here now, in a house I bought pre COVID and know what's coming, over the span of 3 years my house value has increased by 50 percent. No doubt people are riding this wave and in a few weeks theyl wish they hadn't.
"it's just money" and "money can't buy happiness" are part of the problem. The importance of money is so often downplayed and because of that a lot of people have to suffer whenever a crash happens again.
Man this is such a great piece you put together, amazing talking points and your great conversationalist, I don't feel anyone else really on TH-cam is talking about this enable the illustrate and tell the story you are, really love the piece keep them coming
Dude! How cool is it to listen to an eco lesson from a guy with your hair and t-shirt and starting it all with pizza!! And btw the best telling of the tulip bubble I've ever heard AND this video was so damn well done! I can't wait to watch more. I am beyond impressed and yes, to answer Russel Crowe in "Gladiator" I am entertained!
21:15 a subprime loan is a loan that actually has a higher interest rate than normal prime loans due to the borrower having a lower credit score and the bank insuring itself against it. the problem was that they gave these loans to people who shouldnt get or take ANY loan in the firstplace, disregarding if prime or subprime
People have been warning about this for years (pre-pandemic) and all i remember were people laughing saying that was impossible. It's fairly obvious when a bubble has been created. One of the greatest investors has said when everyone is having a party, that's when it's time to get out.
Most recessions through history are caused by the central bank, and it is the cause of this one too. It is well known that the major factors in an economy are self reinforcing - both in good times and also downturns. The central bank is charged with being the counter force in the economy. Central bank is run by political appointment and so when its time to slow down the economy to ensure that it doesn't become overheated and create bubbles that eventually burst, there is enormous pressure to 'let it ride'. That is the greed that causes more recessions. Look at how many times over the past year you heard central bankers say that 'inflation is transitory"....Lies and they knew full well they were lying and driving the economy off a cliff.
It's by design. Central banks cause recessions by overshooting with base rate hikes, this is to keep the natural equilibrium of economy down so as to not get runaway inflation.
@@makoy2689 The only 'by design' part of this behavior by central banks is to serve the short term political interest of those who appointed them as the expense of the economy in the medium term.... They know they are running the economy too hot and should slow things down to avoid a recession, but that would hurt the upcoming election cycle, so dammed the torpedoes - full speed ahead!!
Absolutely, this inflation was so obvious from a mile away with what the government and FED was doing. They just kept telling us it was under control when it obviously wasn’t. Now it time for the painful re-set where we all loose a lot of money.
In other words, artificial increases in money supply caused by manipulation of interest rate, in turn distorting the market incentives and creating a perfect environment for bad investments. Austrian school of economics explains this in a Austrian (surprise) Business Cycle theory.
Worked in banks for almost 7 years. Imo housing loans must be limited to those properties where the owner is actually staying in it and no more than 1 per person / family to avoid rabid speculation. Other loans should be considered commercial loans and at higher commercial rate. And not repackaged further.
@@Ferdinand208 not particularly we work had a 40 billion dollar valuation. But most capital sellers deal with highly liquid bonds. Companies who are so big and profitable that they frankly only use debt to buy back their stock
@@wilfredpeake9987 We Work never got investors. They only had speculators hoping to strike it big. When We Work wanted to get on a stock exchange so investors could invest the numbers didn't seem to add up. Same with Theranos. All speculation because their numbers also didn't add up. I think Tesla should be your example. I really don't get the valuation of that company yet it is an S&P500 stock-traded company making luxury cars...
When your margin call is on plus, they will NOT pay, and when on minus, they ask you to pay ! If is any payment made, will be subject to TAX and penalties !
OMG ! I love the content and the presentation style. You had my attention for the whole video. Love company forencis, learning a lot from these videos and for the first time, I switched on a notification icon for you guys.
At 21:23 in this video, he talks about subprime loans, but he describes an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM). A subprime loan is for borrowers who do not qualify for prime rate loans based upon their credit score. If you have a 600 credit score, then your interest rate for the same property will be higher than it would be for a person with a credit score of 780. Subprime loans exist for houses, cars, credit cards - literally anything that a financial institution will lend upon.
I have read enough about the Financial Crisis but this video is special,,I never thought Id learn something new about the Crisis until I watched the video. Its so well illustrated, explained in very simple terms. This guy is teaching better than my Econ professors. Definitely SUBSCRIBING!!!!
Good explanation and analogies in this video. But I disagree with your reasoning for the cause. We may all have some responsibility but the degree varies vastly between regular people, retail investors, and corporate investors. These people have essentially combined housing and money as a concept, and sold it. Something that isn't really mentioned in this video is that due to how profitable it is, and at the same time how it drives up housing prices(which is a required commodity that everybody needs), anyone who doesn't get in on this race to flip houses is essentially getting poorer due to their money's value inflating unless they have alternative sources of income that can match it. What jobs actually match the housing prices' inflation rates? And even if there are such jobs, how many of such jobs are available for the vast majority of people? These days people keep saying "take some personal responsibility", but what can we actually do in these scenarios to "take responsibility"?
Yea totally agree... low fixed rates for housing should only be available for first time home buyers... giving that to anybody and everybody just creates unnecessary divide where a handful of ppl end up with most of the land/resources... but the true root cause is central banking, fiat money and fractional reserve lending, all of which combined create inflation at an insane rate and honestly buying /flipping houses is the only way to keeping up due to the fixed rate leverage involved...
Blaming systemic issues on "personal responsibility" is just a poor way out. The individual can not control the decisions made at the highest levels of banking/central banking, government and the ultra wealthy that influence these. The individual is left with the choices that "the system" has created for them and there are certain incentive structures in place. It's the job of govt. / Central banks to ensure that the system that is setup is actually one that works long term. But it always get rigged by people with a lot of clout who want to exploit it. The root of the evil itself is actually how the financial system is setup from the get go.
60% of the population of America lived below the poverty line before the Great depression. Concentration of wealth is the common denominator for economic disasters. All the other dates that were spewed out 1974, 1987, the dotcom bubble, we're not as bad because concentration of wealth wasn't as bad as it is now.
That’s exactly how that works. Remember when everyone lost all of their money in 2008. Then they lost it again a few years later? It’s for the extremely wealthy. The can afford to take the hits. Money markets are the way to go. When interest rates go up, your MM yields go up. Stocks are a wild ride unless you can afford to lose money.
You described an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) and called it a subprime loan. But a subprime loan means it was a loan created for somebody who, technically isn’t loan worthy. really doesn’t have anything to do with the interest rate per se.
The important question not mentioned in this video is: how did people/banks got that much money and loans in 1929 for example? Because prices were fixed by the central bank and government, the interest rate was fixed in a very low number to stimulate the economy. What people don't understand is that is a form of price control, you are fixing the cost of money to a very low value, giving cheap money away endlessly, that's what causes overleverage and the big crisis.
With 400,000 subscribers, he probably reaches more people than a tenured professor ever would. Preaching common sense and moderation isn't sexy, but it's right. But even his page is plagued by investment scam spam. Anybody on a TH-cam comment board who puts up these fake discussions between fake accounts telling you how they make big money, is a scam. Just report them.
The thing that really gets my goat is that now automobiles have doubled in price and are being sold with APR loans, which is the same thing that caused the 2008 crisis. APR loans need to be illegal.
I am amazed you didn't mention the demise of Glass-Steagall under the guise of "deregulation" which allowed these manufactured crisis to get as bad as they did.
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You do realize this is exactly what was predestined in the Holy Bible, right? None of this is on accident. The Four Horsemen are with us, now.
We need to de-gamblify economy systematically. Individuality of individual level resistance to gambling is never gonna be enough. I don't know how would be best way to do it but we need to do it.
Couldn't even understand your pronunciation. The word is bAnks not benks.
@@matrixfull the evilites pull the plug when they choose to pull the plug. They cause recessions so they can buy at the bottom. Only the Evilites at the very top know when. They have to repeat the cycle! to multiply their money.
hi, just got your video recommended to me, and I noticed you repeatedly asked "why couldn't we see it coming ?" "why does it keep happening" ?
and it's true, to most people it's unpredictable, but it just so happens that we know why it happens, we know what is the reason it keeps happening and we know how to get rid of it, there's an interesting book you could probably read that was written in 1867, it's called "the capital" and explains this cycle in a way that might interest you
The disastrous decision to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act in the late 1990s led to the spectacular failure of huge banks during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. To prevent a future catastrophe, Dodd-Frank and this Act both need to be revived right away. What happened with SVB is just the start of what will happen if nothing is done to address the current problem.
I think SVB was attempting to restructure their bond holdings. Yes, they would lose money if they sold their low-yield bonds. However, they were attempting to make up for it by repurchasing bonds on the open market at the higher interest rate.
The SVB scenario warns that the effects of the Fed's rate hikes are still being felt, despite the economy's so far successful resilience. Investors need to be cautious about the upcoming inevitable in situations like these. I'll suggest hiring a financial advisor because you don't have to act on every forecast. For a time, I've been using this as my backup strategy.
Would you please let me know how I might use their service to get in touch with this particular coach? You seem to know everything, unlike the rest of us.
She appears to be a true authority in her profession with over two decades of experience. I looked her up on the internet and skimmed through her site, very professional. already sent her an inquiry hoping for a response soon.
American humorist and writer Mark Twain is frequently credited with the aphorism: “History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Which means, while details change, circumstances change, settings change, names change, similar events will essentially recycle.
I deeply question the names changing part. I feel it's much more likely that there is a very small group of people pulling the world's strings and they have been doing it for hundreds of years. (well their families so... I guess technically, the names do change)
good point
You mean the guy who invented Big Jim ?
Who represents BJ today ?
@@OgdenM Yes, agreed.
@@SteveM-gj2vyYou mean N Jim?
Our economy is facing challenges due to uncertainties, housing problems, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and the lingering effects of the pandemic, leading to instability. The rising inflation, slow growth, and trade disruptions require immediate action from all sectors to restore stability and promote economic recovery.
With the US dollar losing value to inflation and other currencies gaining traction, uncertainty looms. Yet, many still trust in the dollar's perceived safety. Worried about my $420,000 retirement savings losing value, I seek alternative security for my money.
The issue is people have the "I want to do it myself mentality" but not equipped enough for a crash, hence get burnt. Ideally, advisors are reps for investing jobs, and at first-hand encounter, my portfolio has yielded over 300% since 2020 just after the pandemic to date.
This is definitely considerable! Do you think you could suggest any professionals or advisors I can get on the phone with? I'm in dire need of proper portfolio allocation.
Absolutely,Lucia Alicia Cruz is the FA I use. Just google the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
Thank you for sharing this. I took the time to Google the individual you mentioned, and after reviewing her resume, it is evident that she is a seasoned professional. I have reached out to her and am eagerly awaiting her response.
I came to the US in 2003. Around that time and for a very few years, I saw some ads that were very confusing about getting a second mortgage to go on vacation or pay for credit card debt to access the "excess equity" in your house. I always found it very confusing that this kind of thing was being promoted.
It is still being promoted to this day. American culture is weird with debt. Somehow they think you need to find that edge where you can spend as much money as possible while having barely enough to pay the interest. One emergency is enough to topple them down.
@@Ferdinand208 Not all of us.
@@renegade382 Then you have more European genes in you so you don't plan yourself into a corner like the ones with less Euro-genes in you.
So did I. Usury as speculative financial instruments...Rabbai Alan Greenspan's gematrian economic tools, derivatives and fractional reserves sliced a baked bean many times garnished with a ground peppercorn. His Chabad friend Janet Yellen ? " ABORTION IS GOOD FOR THE ECONOMY! " Therefore? Invest in human sacrifice for Adrenochrome and body parts ...companies. Plasma companies. Harvesting humans . The word " Mortgage " ....Mort/ gage. Hey hey my my dear goyyim. The culprits are cultists men dressed like women.
I bought in 1995 and again in 2006. In 95 I needed a 20pc deposit and could borrow up to 3.5 times my salary. In 2006 it was 10pc and 4.5. And they offered me a bank loan for the 10pc. So a 100pc loan at a less favourable rate. Never mind that I basically couldn't afford the resulting monthly payments
Best peace of advice I ever received about wealth was in my early twenties. Here it is. "Building wealth, real wealth, is boring. It not fast and it's not difficult. It's being disciplined and living off less than what you earn, using the difference for a rainy day fund and investing in broad based mutual funds and/or index funds". It's a snooze fest and it's unsexy
And it WORKS!!!
@@ccgrider1014 it certainly does. I'm now in my 40s, I do not live paycheck to paycheck as so many others. A car repair is no reason for me to panic and have been able to help my kids with college.
@@dannyschwertner7785 Me too!!
That, or be in a very lucrative career or start a successful business, both of which require a huge amount of work. The point still stands - it’s not a free lunch.
@Manuel Castanon one needs to aquire a marketable skill and there are plenty of immigrants who come to us who do just that. Further, one needs to create margin in their budget. A full 1/3rd of Americans have a car payment and the payment is on avg $525 for a used vehicle. $525/ month invested in an s&p index fund for 20 years makes one a millionaire. Make moves or make excuses
At this moment, things appear to be odd. Inflation is reducing the value of the US dollar, but it is strengthening in comparison to other currencies and commodities like real estate and gold. People are switching to the dollar because they believe it is safer. I worry that the rising cost of living may cause the value of my retirement savings to decline.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Several individuals minimize the importance of counsel until their own feelings become overwhelming. A few summers ago, following a protracted divorce, I needed a significant push to keep my firm afloat. I looked for licensed advisors and found someone with the highest qualifications. She has contributed to my reserve increasing from $275k to $850k despite inflation.
You seem to know the market better than we do, so that makes great sense. Who is the guide?
'Laurelyn Gross Pohlmeier' is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
The more I learn about finances the more I want a cabin in the woods far away from any sign of civilization.
✅️
Industrial Society and Its Future might be a good read for you.
@@roysdonjr I know that book. How does it help me though regarding wanting to quit society for good? Doesn't the book advocate for social revolution rather than abandoning it if I remember correctly?
@@laaaliiiluuu Well, Ted moved into a cabin in the woods in Montana. Small place, no electricity or running water. He just wanted to be left alone.
@@roysdonjr Good point yeah
It is amazing how the word GREED was never mentioned in this video. People's greed and banks are to blame for every crisis.
100%, while I appreciate he's covering important lessons for people to learn - it could be summed up with a single word: "Greed".
@@matthewcarroll2533 Perhaps, but that's not very informative or convincing as it doesn't explain the actual mechanism. Greed is definitely a part of things, but is far from the whole story.
Don't forget ignorance
@@boomclash101 Don't forget bigotry too.
Greed is equally present regardless of the state of the economy. It's factored into the way economies work, and the regulations that facilitate and constrain economic activity.
"Bubbles" make speculation pay well (until they burst), and often make it accessible to more people. But is buying in a rising market greedy? Do you know anyone who _wouldn't_ do it if they had some spare cash?
I used to think everybody went broke during the Great Depression and other major crashes but they didn’t… Some made millions, I also thought everybody went out of business during these times but they didn’t, some went into business, there's always depression/recession for some people and there's always a good time for others, it's all about perspective. My primary concern is how to grow my reserve of $400k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
first step is discovering loopholes to generate gains during volatility, It is very possible to retire big time from the current market condition without having to hold stocks long term.
Major events cause major churn and some people will win with a few winning big while the majority lose
Same with the recent pandemic. Some lost their livelihoods. Others made millions and billions. A lot of us are in the middle holding steady.
@@dttttt True. That's all government intervention can do, enrich their cronies even as they plunge everyone else into misery
inflation
I must be an oddball. I have not studied economics, finance in general. Not surprising, but what makes me a real oddball is the fact I actually listened to my parents, grandparents, aunts and uncles. They gave me a wealth of information on poverty (Great Depression) and the preservation of wealth. By listening to them, I was able to avoid the trap of "Get rich quick" and see the patterns of the early 1900s repeating again as early as the 1970s.
Anyone who doesn't study history is bound to repeat it.
Well to avoid you waste your time and miss information about hystory just trying to follow the the money strand and reread history by following that path
Studying history (which was my major) even though I loved many parts of History, economic history and spotting trends was probably the most fascinating part. Yes learning from you ancestors is a great way to learn what to do and what not to do. The thing about all fashion savings is that its only a good investment if Interest Rates are high. If they are very low then you only loose money from saving and you miss the opportunity to access capital at very low rates which would give you the chance to do things that you could never try if your always preserving what you have.
Some people did foresee the 2008 Crisis. Read Anne Pettifor "The Coming First World Debt Crisis", written in 2006. It's one of the most thought-provoking books I've ever read. She foresaw the 2008 economic crisis 2 years before it happened.
I think Aaron Clarey did too
I wrote TWICE to Lloyds bank in 2007 telling them that if they did not stop throwing money around like Confetti then the shit would hit the fan. Their answers were derisory, the rest is history.
Micheal Barry as well
More than two years, probably closer to four or five. She'd have to write the book and then find a publisher.
Steve Keen.
I think it was Willem Buiter who did a paper on the roughly 8 people who definitively predicted it.
So how exactly can we guard against the coming financial reset for 2024? Like what are really the best strategies to make our portfolio recession proof against the incoming financial reset? I'm very worried about my $110k stock portfolio.
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.
I agree, having the right plan is priceless. My portfolio is well-suited for any market and recently doubled since early last year. My CFP and I are aiming for a seven-figure goal, which might take another year to achieve.
Vivian Jean Wilhelm is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Fckig bots
we guard against it happening again by - not electing libtard politicians.
Fed reserve and the treasury is not bothered about stock capital market. They are more concerned about the treasury bond market. They fear the bond market may become dysfunctional and illiquid. Bond yields are one of the important parameter that influences stock market. All stock pundits fail to mention how the bond yields influence stock market. My main concern now is how we are going to achieve all of that given that the market has been a mess for most of the year. I already lost $23,000
@Blayson Quinn Totally true, The market is definitely the most awkward teenager with the wildest mood swings. I started investing in 2020 and that same year I made a profit of over $758,000, and all I was doing was basically following the guidance of a portfolio advisor, she does all the hard work and I just copy.
@Anderson Varley KATHERINE DUFFY BURKE. She is one of the highest rated portfolio-advisors with a good track record. She is also verifiable through various advisory bodies. Lookup her fullname on the web
Magic word: FTX .....Ask catherine about it.👍
Bonds are junk. They enable statism. Fuck that shit and the parties who think they are owed something if the state can't pay it. That's their fault for being dumbasses.
@TeresaBrickle nobody mentioned any names, Brickle. what are you on about??
Things, money, more "things"... filling the void, being on the safe side at all and/or any cost. One day we might finally learn as a community that THIS is not what life is about, they are distractions, illusions in the best case, with a skin deep meaning. Until then we will continue to go through this cycles over, and over again or, until one of them finally beats us permanently.
I have considered that; if we solve energy scarcity, bring the costs of goods and services also down to nearly being free via automation, A.I., robotics, and mining resources in the solar system bringing the cost of resources down to nearly free, there would be little benefit to exploiting the masses, and everything to gain by empowering the masses so they can be highly educated, highly skilled, with a high satisfaction with the quality of their lives, as this would create the sort of environment that would reward society via many more artists, musicians, scientists, and even a greater number of those contributing to society on a more social level. I just can't decide if this much better scenario is more plausible than the dystopian future seen in many sci-fi stories. Things look pretty distopean in America right now; I just hope we can make the changes that can help us avoid becoming a distopean landscape in America or elsewhere around the globe.
I thought the Middle East or elsewhere had a higher chance of such a nightmare future; but sadly it looks like America will show the world how even a strong Democracy can fall into authoritarianism and fascism, when select individuals and the groups they belong to are able to grab political power.
No this is not life is, but on meanwhile this is it show must go on and we need to dance with it
Above and beyond any consideration we still don't know what money actually is..
The wrong types of people/ groups gaining political power is a very big issue. Recently, however, I've been more focused on the source of the problem being sociopathic levels of greed... and then the society that honors and admires these people as if they are heroes to be looked up to.
There is a lot to be said about how a few sociopathically greedy individuals poison both their generations and future generations to come. Unfortunately, the people most able to 'directly' stop them, only want to join that level of greed instead.
The other point raised was education...forget about creating a complete Utopia; the fact that countries don't prioritze getting higher education into the hands of more people is alarming. (some countries are better than others.)
A properly prioritized country would be able to provide top-level higher education without it leading to crippling amounts of debt for the young.
Economics is the dismal science, but only b/c greed incentivizes powerful people to only think of the financial aspects while ignoring the human aspects.
we should focus more on doing NASA stuff
You forgot the a big part of the stock speculation issues in the late teens early 20s was corporate buybacks that make stocks look like they have more value than they really do. This is why corporate buybacks were banned after the Depression. However in the late 80's or early 90's a bunch of corporations convinces politicians that it would be good for the economy. So we are on track to repeat this mistake.
Great video, but a couple minor corrections:
-The Dutch revolutionized finance, but they didn't invent the futures contract, we have records of futures being used as insurance and investment back to the code of Hammurabi in ancient Babylon
-The east India trading company was chartered by the British and is a separate entity to the Dutch west India company that was involved in the tulip bubble.
-Sub prime loans are those given to individuals with low credit scores at a higher than market rate to account for the added risk to the lender. Loans who's rates change to a higher rate at a later date (the definition given in the video) are referred to as balloon loans or teaser rate loans.
East India Company stole 45 Trillions from India by trains.
A balloon loan has a small monthly payments and a large payment at the end of the loan term. The mortgages that he and you are thinking of are ARMs, adjustable rate mortgages are mortgages that have a low interest rate for a 5-7 year period and then adjusts upwards every year after up to a certain cap.
@@narmortein537 and how that didn't destroy the British Empire? with a lot less the Spanish Empire suffered a crack that almost kills it
Good points! I think a major part of the problem is that when someone figures it out they try to profit individually from it instead of raising alarm bells about the problem.
Michael Burry (one of the guys who the Big Short was written about) repeatedly tried to warn regulators and they just didnt care ahead of 2008. He was one of the first to spot the pattern. I dont fault him for profiting off of it. He didnt cause the problem.
@@Bigbudd0045 agreed!
People raise the alarm all the time because the system by design is unsustainable and will regularly lead to crashes...the problem is that most people don't want to listen so the system doesn't change
@@moritz7179 VERY good point! :)
I profit from whatever is going on,
I can't get enough of your Company Forensics videos guys. I saw the quality of the content grow into excellence over time and never get boring.
The quality of the production, the stories, the knowledge, and the insights are just the perfect combo.
Awesome job guys! Really!
💜💜
I think I'll be watching a lot more of these videos.
I recall some American friends had a hat box. They used it to store a mound of preapproved credit cards that just turned up in the mail, unrequested. They were fiscally responsible, but I expect thousands were tempted to just go on a binge. Who should be blamed for such a ridiculous scenario?
Worse, in my opinion, is when credit card issuers go on campus to encourage students to open accounts. Students with minimum wage jobs, or no job.
Seems like a form of gambling in my opinion
@@annedonnellan6876 financial entrapment, I think
Those cards were for a rainy day.
congress. junk mail was mandated by congress as it generates huge tax revenues, so much so congress gives junk mail only a farthing of a cent stamp prices so junk mailers can send billions of mailers despite the post office having to spend full price on expenses.
I'll admit I just watched the video to see how close to the truth you'd be. You got it right as far as the economics behind it. Leverage kills. I'd add to that though, by saying the psychology behind over leveraging is greed. I'm most convinced now than ever that success in investing is found within my own mental discipline. Stay zero leveraged, control risks, be ready to buy after everyone sells. Hopefully we don't ruin our economy completely. That's the hardest risk to prepare for.
Everyone is screaming about a forthcoming crisis and it's getting me worried. How can I protect my investment portfolio of around 800K. I don't want to get burnt out.
Knowledgeable Investors know where and how to put money during a crisis in order to reduce risk and maximize returns. See a market strategist with experience if you are unable to manage these market conditions.
This is why I entrusted a fiduciary with my investmnt decisions. Many underestimate advisors until emotions lead to losses. My advisor crafted a tailored strategy aligning with my long-term goals, guiding entry and exit points for the equities I focus on. This has grown my portfolio to over $850k. My personal best so far
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
*Merissa Lynn Babula* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I searched for her name on the internet, found her page, and reached out via email to schedule a conversation. Thank you.
It's no mystery to me why history keeps repeating itself. I remember seeing people who went through bankruptcy and lost multiple houses in 2008, 2009, and 2010 immediately jump back into debt the first moment they could, and start the cycle all over again. Too many people just don't learn.
"those who don't learn from the past are bound to repeat it", Never a truer word.
History doesn't repeat itself. People repeat history.
There's a huge diff between going into a fixed rate 30yr mortgage on what you can afford (even though its debt) vs an ARM on a 3rd home. Smart responsible people do the former, dipshits do the later. Dont lump those together.
@@dereklinscott8488 I don't know who you think is doing any lumping. I'm pretty sure you're the only one talking about fixed-rate 30-year mortgages.
@@retroactiveIifestyle So your not? A 30 year fixed is 'jumping into debt' after all.
Selfish fueled greed is the first and greatest fundamental economic cancer. I've worked in the financial industry since 1984. And I've seen this simple truth played out countless times: The borrower is slave to the lender.
No matter how many times crises happen, greed and fear are always there to make people blind
Very nice video. Weirdly I had a conversation with somebody I've known for 15 years about the coming recession just over half a year ago, he insisted that recessions and major stock market crashes were a thing of history, and only minor corrections would happen from now on. I was flabbergasted, how does thinking like this come up every time, that it's different this time?
Stop hanging out with idiots, problem solved
Haha! Gordon Brown, chancellor of the UK (Treasury Secretary in US, I believe) at the time of the 2008 crash, shortly before it claimed that their Labour party had 'put an end to boom and bust'. He was the CHANCELLOR and he made a statement like that on the eve of arguably the biggest 'bust' in history. We mere mortals don't stand a chance with the guesswork available to us. At our level, caution, moderation and scaling back aspirations (trying to be 'financially comfortable' rather than wanting to be crazy, 'Bezos' rich in a space of 5 years) are the keys.
This time actually is different. It will be so much worse of a recession than before, because the US has printed more money since 2020 than ever before.
Ignorance. We're technically in a recession. How bad will it be? Nobody knows.
@@rathelmmc3194 depends on the interest rates? We know the levels of debt and we know the levels of savings.
"It's a good thing most people don't know how our economic system works, because if they did there'd be a revolution by morning. - Henry Ford
Actually nobody really knows
Grasshoppers-Henry Ford fulfilled contracts for the Nazi Party in Germany for De Fuhrer. The Chase National Bank offered the American Nazi Nationals to buy marks with dollars at a discount after 1929. The US is now the largest clearinghouse for foreign investors, in US history. The banks only pay a fine for 'breaking bad', part of doing business, deregulation from the Reagan Era forward. Berkshire Hathaway is the leader in house flipping/bank foreclosures and assurance deals. It's common knowledge the first 5 years of homeownership, paying down the principle is the first goal, but there is no guarantee of employment with two incomes, either. Pensions have become a joke since 2008, more have gone into receiverships, mine was one. How many of you have taken Econ 101? Live below your means and within your seems.
Its pretty simple.. Our government borrows its money from a private corporation who has never been audited to show that they actually have what they are lending us. The interest they charge for that money is paid by our federal income taxes. The principle does not get paid and the national debt keeps getting worse because we dont realize or understand that we can just create our own money without borrowing it from anyone (fiat currency). And then the kicker.. the money in existence is only the principle that is borrowed. The money to pay the interest does not exist therefore anyone who has a loan is competing with others with loans to pay their interest. That means that bankruptcy is built into the system. Our monetary system cannot exist without it. END THE FED.
The one thing you are not really talking about in regards to the 1929 crash is that the fed artificially lowered Interest rates, for political reasons.
The reason so many people where investing is that since interest rates where so low, everyone was getting loans, to invest in anything , since normally it would be hard to beat the market, or pay back loans but since rates were so low everyone was taking them to increase production on farms, factories, and stocks, tons of things which should have never had more capital pumped into them to expand operations, since they were confident that they could pay back the few percent loans so they made tons of stuff nobody wanted.
Ah-ha! The slip that summarizes it all: gamble, er, invest. When people put money on a risk/possibility as if it were a reality. Futures, margins, leverages, speculation, etc. Lesson: don't gamble more than you can afford to lose. In my circle, we saw what was coming, but we did not have a voice to warn anyone/we were discounted.
A very nicely laid out explanation over all. Learned a bit more of history, too.
I was getting my econ degree in the mid-2000s at Boise State and we were all talking about the upcoming housing crash. We saw it coming as early as 2006 and it was "just" a state university. Yale didn't see this coming, but we did. You got the story totally right. But there was more to it. There was also a racial component. In class we listened to a podcast interviewing people who'd recently worked at mortgage banks. The guys being interviewed were from a company that apparently targeted black homeowners with sub prime loans, knowing that the whole system was about to crash and and telling themselves that it was okay because it was black people getting screwed. Finance types are the worst.
Wow.
Everyone doing mortgage underwriting saw it as early as 2005, for reasons the video doesn't cover because they don't know what a subprime loan is.
See calculated risk for the writings of Tanta (RIP) if you want to know how it all went down.
Are there any numbers on how many black folks were affected?
Huh? This is BS. Stop being a crying victim. If I am a businessman, I don’t care what your color is. As long as I make profits, you can be any colors you want, even a rainbow.
So sick of this “black” made-up sh*t.
Yeah the Jews have done a lot of shitty things to black people over the centuries..
You missed something about the tulips 🌷. It was the bulbs that people went crazy over betting if it was going to be a exotic looking tulip when it was grown in the spring. People bet on the bulbs and lost all of there money when it turned out to be regular tulips.
Same thing repeats in time with different materials. But it’s all just people wanting more out of life. Everyone wants more just don’t know how to get it. the stock market or gambling is one of the first things people go too to solve that problem.
People like to call it investing, but really most of them are just gambling.
@@yivunqp963 So true!
The stock market is a share from trade.
PSA: The tulip thing is a myth. A guy made it up. No historian has ever found evidence. The more you know.
The whole video tries to ignore the elephant in the room. In the tulip mania only people who were gambling got hit. In 2008 the whole world got hit. How is this possible? Shouldn't only the gamblers get hit? Normally yes. When the US government guarantees your mortgage there is no risk for the banks. If there is no risk you go all in. Everybody would. So speculators (not investors) push up the price until the bubble pops. But this time investors got hit because the government was gambling. And the pension funds thought the government wouldn't gamble with their money.
if you thought this video was interesting, please look up what really happened. If your only source is this video you know less than before you watched the video.
in what way was the govt gambling? it's the first time I hear of them guaranteeing mortgages. I do know that that is a factor in the current student loan bubble but I've genuinely not heard of this before in mortgages. Are you referring to the moral hazard encouraged by previous times the govt bailed out institutions caught up in mortgage related money issues, maybe?
Bravo.. in-depth response and valid
Yes.
The shitty part is lack of skin in the game.
You get burned irrespective of your actions.
This has the 2nd order effect of effectively forcing one to speculate, exacerbating the issue.
What is more important is to follow the money one step further and look at what incentivises a country/government to do so.
Lobbying/interest groups.
A government doesn't actively seek to shoot itself in the foot.
The fiat system is the biggest pyramid scheme the world has ever seen. It's so big and complex that almost no one on this planet sees it. Learn about bitcoin, you'll learn about money in the process and you'll never see the world the same way
I agree. He completely ignored the massive role the government has in manipulating (and ruining) the market in a way that affects us all, and which makes NO sense. To the point where, paradoxically, stocks went UP when employment went DOWN, because investors figured it meant the fed was going to have to stop raising interest rates. 😑
I'll pay you $100.00 to never play that opera singer riff ever again...
Was about to say the same thing. Good video but that kills it
Yeah, stop messing with our brains!
It's annoying and unnecessary.
Lol, I believe you would.
I agree
Your characterization of subprime is off. Subprime means the loan is not given to a prime borrower. It is somebody that does not have regular income. What you were describing is an option arm the arm stands for adjustable rate mortgage. This type of loan has a low, introductory teaser, and within few years, usually two years, it changes to a fixed rate, which is much higher than the teaser. What people were told was that they could refinance and get another option arm Within the two years, they high interest, interest rate and payment schedule.
It is surprising that the video doesn't mention the Glass-Stegall act of 1932 (and it hasn't been referenced in the comments either, so far). This was a legislative response to the excessive gambling that occurred and set up the conditions for the 1929 crash. Interestingly enough, this act was able to prevent major economic collapses right up until it was repealed in 1997. Removing these restrictions allowed the housing bubble to be created and, once again, we have a major collapse! A very weak and ineffective version of the original legislation was put back in, but it won't stop the next disaster.
I am first time hearing about this act and it sounds great
No mention of FDR era regulations at all. But then again I suppose this is a general critique of the responsibility of the general population's (our) part in all of it.
@F, Frost......Thank you for introducing....The Glass-stegall Act of 1932.
@@mikestaihr5183 Yes it's our fault, comrade! Totally not the central banks that control the economy!
Jeez, it almost seems to be done intentionally.
"...the culprit may be staring right back at us" - Caya
Thank you for being one of the few with the courage to publicly call this out. Pointing fingers is quite the trendy habit, but there's only one reflection in the mirror. 'Take some ownership' is such a refreshing message. Keep on SB team 🤘
YESSS! The perspectives of SB content is FRESH AF.
... personal responsibility in a system where most of the people are literally under educated as to the nature of the problem?
I mean preaching personal responsibility is nice... but the fact is most people don't actually KNOW the facts of why these systems collapse and thus literally cannot actually recognize the trap in order to avoid it.
Fact is, it's the people who sell this shit to people who are under educated who are the real issue. Because the people SELLING these margins always know the nature of them, and their USUAL customers are people who don't have the education to understand the scam for what it is.
Its the same as with any other pyramid scheme.
He isn't saying that the general public is responsible... he's saying that We as the ones who learn about this stuff... the people who are almost always in a position to leverage our understanding of it either to exploit or halt exploitation who have the responsibility to call it out where we see it rather than participate in it as fellow gamblers.
In plain straight forward plain English is the fact that investing money in stocks is that IT IS A FORM OF GAMBLING NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE REAL CASINO GAMBLING IN LAS VEGAS BUT ONLY THIS TIME IT IS NOT IN LAS VEGAS, IT IS IN WALL STREET.
Works well usually but not when you are sold downright lies. Some of these people like Bernie Madoff are excellent, charismatic, polished deceivers.
I majorly disagreed with that last one. I need a house, not for investment, but because I need a home to live. Rent + mortgages are tied together, we are forced to partake whether we like it or not.
Honestly, this concerns me and has left me uneasy. Especially this potential depression, no more a recession. I'm unsure about my $130K account strategy, considering the uncertainty of this whole recession mostly.
if you lack knowledge about market investing tactics, get advice from a financial counselor.
Agreed! this is why I work with one. My $520k portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% rise from early last year to date. I and my advsor are working on more figures for this year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
Please who guides you on the process of it all?
She's known as a 'Stacy Lynn Staples'. One of the finest portfolio managers in the field also widely recognized. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with and set up an appointment.
Thank you for sharing. I just scheduled a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé.
Reminds me of the quote. "I have met the enemy and it is us"...goes something like that.
I love the way that you underlined that the problem is not the stock market, the real estate, this one, that one...The problem is our relation with education, with information, we put so much attention on things not so important but we don't put attention on things that affect our life! We know the last girlfriends of Pete Davidson but we don't know how the world works, who we are, our goals, how to reach them...
Great narative and great video! Keep up the good work🙏🏻
Yeah I remember when I came out about the strawman and how we're being taken advantage of through contracts and my parent didn't understand that but buying a 50,000 car and bragging to me about it is well within your capability. So.. yeah.
Since we're approaching April, one of the best months to buy stocks. I am currently holding north of $300k in a savings account waiting to invest in another huge opportunity.. Where would you invest this as of now?
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with strategies to hedge losses
Agreed, my portfolio is well-matched for every market season yielding 85% from early last year to date. I and my advisr are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year. IMO, financial advisors are the most sought-after professionals after doctors.
Your CFP must be really good, I hope it's okay to inquire if you're still collaborating with the same CFP and how I can get in touch with them?
That would be Monica Shawn Marti. You should look her up, I say. To be honest, I almost didn't think I should, but I'm glad I decided to let someone handle growing my finances.
Thank you! I entered her full name into my browser, and her website came out on top. I filled her form and i hope she gets back to me soon.
Life isn't fair. Wealth disparity is real. Inflation is up, wages are stagnant, recession is likely. But, complaining won't help you. Cut costs and spending choices. Build your skills and earn more. Learn how to invest and grow. Take control of your life.
I love this. Life isn't fair. You have to take responsibility and do everything you can to improve your situation if you're unhappy with it. The good news is that there are plenty of resources to build your skills and learn how to invest! Start today!
The challenges we face are unevenly distributed, no doubt about it. But we all have the power to choose how we respond (emotionally and through action). Choosing our responses wisely is how we can gradually tilt the odds more in our favor. That's right, I started investing sometime in 2018 and by late 2021, I pulled out a profit of over $750k with no prior investing knowledge or skill. I was basically just following the guidelines set by my Financial-Advisor. So you don't necessarily need to be a perfect investor or do the hard works, just have a professional who guides & mentors you.
@@MIchaelGuzman737 How can one find a Fiduciary Financial Advisor that can one help make good gains during this bear market and when the bulls finally arrive? I would not mind looking up the pundit that helped you. I will be retiring in two years and I might need some management on my much larger portfolio. Don't want to take any chances.
@@elizabethyork590 I am being guided by *LISA ELLEN SHAW* I found her on a CNBC interview where she was featured and reached out to her. She has since provided entry and exit points on the securities I focus on. You can look her up online if you care supervision.
@@MIchaelGuzman737 Insightful.. I curiously looked up her name on the internet and I found her site, thanks for sharing.
The biggest problem with low information investors is that they bet more than they can afford to lose in things they don't actually understand... so when things get choppy they don't have the stomach for it and pull out to save their asses. We need to teach people the fundamentals of investment and how to have a long term view as well as how to actually understand the risks and opportunities to the fullest extent. High school should have a required 4 year course that covers everything and has student's actually invest a small amount of real money so students can get a deep understanding of how this stuff works, plus what to look out for. It would be better for all of us.
They don't teach finances in school
You should use the word speculator when someone is gambling/guessing. And investor when someone is putting money in a productive asset.
Everybody can learn about investing and you don't need a biased school to teach you investing. There are great websites and videos to teach you.
Though this piece of propaganda is just to rile up the plebs.
People can't tolerate investing because they don't understand you can't just make money for doing nothing, and the places you can takes a lifetime to turn that money into anything reasonable. People are too impatient for that. If you want to make money "fast" then you need to use your capital to start businesses that provide goods and services to people. Most people are too lazy for that.
@@rathelmmc3194 you should look up the term "pension"
It seems you _can_ invest money in a way that you don't have to work anymore...
@@Ferdinand208 Only places that can afford pensions are governments since they can print money to give to people. Normal businesses don't offer them anymore because they're not sustainable.
The Fed is the problem. We went from fractional reserve banking to infinite reserve banking. The amount of money that can be lent no longer ties to how much is in the bank.
The only way none of this would occur was if we had full reserve bank or the gold standard. Banks can on lend what they have. not 110% not infinite like we have now. Basically we are surviving because there is an inability for the banks to call in their loans, there is only an inability to create new ones due to the high interest rates. The only way we crash is when the money supply shrinks, which will not happen unless we return to fractional reserve banking which won't happen because the public debt far exceeds the real funds in people's bank account.
The responsibility of every individual, including ourselves, is definitely there. That said, some individuals have more responsibility than others. A large factor in the 2008 bubble was a (even today) little known regulation on bookkeeping, specifically how to tally physical assets. For a long time, the regulation was, that it had to be on the books at the value it was bought at. That means the value of a house was the amount on the bill of sale, not the amount on the bill of sale for the house next door. That was changed in the early 2000's so that physical assets could be tallied at market value. This allowed refinancing, which really made this so bad. In fact, I heard one analysis state that the crisis ended when the old standard was reinstated.
That said, stupid decisions or mistake are always made by those in power. They are only human after all. We all must do our part, be vigilant and at the least, protect ourselves as best we can from any forming bubble. A good metric in my opinion is "if something seems to good to be true, it probably is." Does it mean I miss out on some opportunities? Pretty sure it does. On the other hand, my family is as safe as can be right now, in part because I knew something bad would happen when the money printer went brrrr from 2020 onwards.
yes, well there is plenty of mass delusion to go around at so many levels... the problem is, we will all likely suffer, though I am sure some may enjoy the carnage.
Nothing like the Summer of Love* in 2020, though!
Probably a lot worse in many areas.
* - _Void where prohibited. Your mileage will vary._
@@drx1xym154 with Russia sabotaging wheat exports from Ukraine? You can bet on it. Lots worse. Sri Lanka is just a bit of a preview of what's to come with the combination of the war and China's lending stupidity. There's an insane amount of pain coming for all of us, but the developing world will be hit the worst.
Investment markets are the easiest way to achieve rarified levels of freedom. But countless optimists have miscalculated their risk tolerance, then make emotional decisions with money they can’t afford to lose, based on tips & public sentiment.
Nothing is worth more than understanding one’s responsibility as a provider, and investing in self with skills that will always be in demand- especially when governments and banks can’t be trusted to maintain healthy fiscal/economic environments.
May I ask what steps you took, so your family is safe?
@@moniquet.6171 We bought land and are setting things up to be nearly self sufficient. Lots of money in gold and tangible assets. Some in stocks with a highly recommend brokerage at a more or less safe bank. As little money in Euros as possible (we're German).
There's a storm brewing between the US recession, the Chinese real estate bubble and the war in Ukraine. I give it 50/50 that the world will change even more drastically in the coming year than between summer '19 to summer '20.
It was hard for us to learn anything back in 2008, because emotions were so high. There was so much finger-pointing, people were more focused on avoiding blame than actually taking steps to avoid the next crash. They just wanted to get back to the next boom and tell all their enemies that they were right all along. Our egos are the problem.
This would be an excellent point if not for the vast swathes of financial regulation that happened immediately following the crash
@@oldvlognewtricks the regulation that was passed was largely nothing more than window-dressing.
Human stupidity is as great as it has been since 2008.
Emotions were high because the left's dear leader was nothing but emotion, he was the god the left had been waiting for. That's all they had, but emotions are mighty powerful. So, what did the right do? Negative emotion, Donald Trump! He actually did some positive things for America that were 100% overshadowed by his ego.
It's not our egos. We were duped into thinking regulation is wrong. We should regulate and deincentivise speculative investments. Simple as that.
Warren Buffett has mastered what patience looks like. He has stuck to the markets, having a long term view on the markets. This is what I'm struggling to do, trying to learn how to not react to market news about inflation and all. I have currently set aside about $553k to put in the market now that prices are down. Any ideas?
It takes some gut to really remain in the market despite downturns and all. So just find quality stocks that have long term potential, and ride with those stocks. I have found it takes someone who is very familiar with the market to make such good picks.
@@Tsunaniis-j5l I've been looking for advisors recently because the market news hasn't been very positive. who’s the person that is guiding you.
@@Tsunaniis-j5l Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Keep your money safe in multiple FDIC-Insured banks - no more than the amount covered by FDIC limit in each bank.
Precisely. Macro view is more difficult even for the big fishes to manipulate.
Australia property was unaffected in 2008. It has been on a 25 year bull run. Interest rates have tripled in the past few months and millions of mortgages refinanced in 2020 for sub 2% are due to have their fixed interest terms expire...
It might be because rich Chinese investors have nowhere safe to park their money but foreign real estate. Favourites of theirs include Vancouver and Australia. When Chinese money dries up it will probably be like the US + West Europe in 2008.
@@GAGONMYCOREY Chinese real estate is crashing as we speak , whether it drives or crashes Australia too we will have to wait to find out
Thanks for breaking this down so basically that the average person (like me) can actually understand how all this works. Brilliant. Appreciated.
I cannot judge the content because I am not an economist. But I like the style of exposition, you make it clear for everyone.
I am happy there are public sources of this kind of information and the "I am privileged" becomes "we are privileged" and then "none are privileged, because we all know and we do or we don't"
Can you Refrase what your saying I dont understand
Great narrative, well done!
Let’s face it the base root is the human trait we can’t overcome: Greed, number one and gluttony, pride and jealousy in no particular order.
You have nailed it! Financial foolishness is generational, and it occurs about every 70 to 100 years depending on longevity. Grandfather is old and times have changed. His son sort of listens to him, and he is a little more careful. The grandson says to himself, "The old man and pops don't know jack. The good times will never end!" Then everything goes to you know where. This time it is going to be worldwide, but don't listen to me. I'm just an old man at 77 who listened to my grandfather and my father. This is why I retired at age 45, have a net worth of 2.5 million after giving a half million to my son and daughter, have no debts and make $120K a year after taxes for just breathing.
What about Envy ?
It's not greed it's speculation. If we blame it on greed we blame it on no one. We have no solutions. This video is bad because it goes "oh well I guess people were dumb". No. We deregulated markets which allowed for this to happen.
Speculation to enhance riches stems from greed.
Speculation is not the cause; it is the effect.
@@jamestown4867 but you can affect speculation. You can't affect greed. So unless you plan on mass brainwashing people it's pointless to talk about greeed.
The movie margin call does a good job drawing a picture of the 2008 housing crash.
History doesn't repeat, since circumstances are different BUT History can rhyme since even if circumstances are different they can be similar.
21:20 - you are confusing ARM (Adjustable rate mortgages) with Subprime mortgages (riskier borrowers, less likely to repay the loan) due to their lower credit scores.
The problem with ARMs was that when the rates went up, so did these borrowers' monthly payments, which they then could not afford. All at the same time.
The worst part of all is that credit actually creates money, and no matter what some people will say, it does cause inflation of prices in the economy; credit creates more money circulating through the economy. When this credit slows down the whole thing falls down like a house of cards.
I'm not fully supportive of the Austrian school of economics, but they at least point to the problems with credit (Austrian Business Cycle Theory). Famously, Austrian economics is associated with "neoliberalism" - the same school of thought people blame for today. The truth is, Austrian economics and 'neoliberal' thought has been successful in reducing Government spending and Keynesian economics, which had helped post-great depression, but very unsuccessful in regulating credit.
Today we have the worst of both worlds and we really need a new economic system that is built from the ground up, without crazy amounts of credit artificially inflating people's monetary wealth and the economy.
My late father was being circumcised on Black Tuesday 1929, it was his Bris. His uncle who was holding him learnt that he had lost (a very large amount of money) and dropped him. This became something of a family joke.
Awesome video dude. I was fortunate enough to speak with several elders about living before during and after the 1930s depression. It was very intriguing to say the least. What's amazing is they did what they had to to survive and push through. Really inspiriting!! What makes today's problem is the treasury lady thinks hope will save us from a depression lol.
It is a slave system. The crisis are made.
You appear to ignore the involvement of the Federal Reserve leading up to the 1929 stock market crash. Following the end of World War 1, the Bank of England had tremendous amounts of war bonds, many sold to the US through Morgan Bank, that it now had to pay out. Only the BofE didn't have enough gold in reserve to pay off the bonds, and even still, the BofE was seeing gold streaming out of its vaults to the US. So the head of the BofE contacted the head of the US Fed (formerly the head of Morgan Bank in the US) and they agreed that the US Fed should lower its interest rates, which would result in gold leaving the US and going back to England. In addition, US banks tied to the Federal Reserve would see lower interest rates, so they would borrow more money from the Fed - leading to more money in the US stock market.
Wait so... that scene in die hard 3... could never have actually happened,?😢
@@nolesy34 You're extrapolating from something I didn't say, and you're doing it poorly. BofE didn't lose ALL of its gold following WWI, and the US didn't lose ALL of its gold in the 1920s. In addition, the US under FDR made it illegal for anyone but the US government to possess gold, which meant everyone turned in all their gold, or hid it, or got caught hiding it and were then sent to prison.
In all these situations you can take the following away:
Don’t buy something you can’t afford
Always have liquidity
Don’t invest in anything you don’t understand
Invest in things you understand fully
Gold is a solid investment/protection against inflation
Amen. Simple truths are way better at educating than collective self-commiseration and (speculative) third party blaming.
Gold has gone down in recent months even as inflation is soaring. He didn't mention the gold bubble on 1980, where it went from 250ish to 875 and everyone was sure it was going to 1000. A couple years later it was back to 300 and it was below 300 in the late 90s. Now it's around 1700 but that's only double the high from 40 years ago and around 5 times the average price. Inflation is more than that in most things and the stock market is over 30x what it was then
You can’t eat gold. If things tank, everyone who invested in gold will want to sell it along with everyone else. The value of gold drops. Nothing is secure. Always remember that. Food and shelter are the only things that count. Hopefully you are healthy.
As a guy thats into finance, loves trading, etc… this is one of the most wonderfully put together finance videos that I’ve ever seen. Really well done. Absolutely you have a new subscriber here… amazing.
A basic fact here is that every time “lending” is mentioned it means money creation from nothing by a private commercial bank.
The Bank of England Q1 2014 Bulletin explains this.
“Borrowing” is money creation. For loans, overdrafts, mortgages and credit card use.
Thus loans create deposits.
But we are lied to.
On a massive scale.
Real estate needs to be regulated. Real estate is just stock for rich people. Also property tax needs to be eliminated.
That's never going to happen the Goverment is fine with companies buying hundreds of Millions of Dollars of property increasing prices and screwing the common man.
Property tax is the ONLY funding for poor kids in most states, grow up
@@jtowensbyiii6018 u should not pay taxes for shit u already own.
Citizenry as a collective own the land of the nation. You are merely leasing it from them. Did you create the land you own? Did you create the air you breathe, the water you drink?
Please watch the Big Short. Some people did see the housing crash coming. Those that saw it among other things they bought credit default swaps. And AIG sold 20x the amount of credit default swaps on mortgages than there were mortgages. This is important to understand. It was not the failure of mortgages that caused the financial impact, it was the size of the derivatives market. To understand it a different way, you buy a life insurance policy for yourself to pay your dependents in case you die. But then your neighbors know you have bad health that the insurance company doesn't understand and 20 of them also but a life insurance policy on you. But because they want to take care of your dependants but because they think the odds are in their favor that you will die and they will get rich. Likewise people saw the housing/mortgage problems and buying credit default swaps was a way they could "get rich"er. And foolish AIG knew people pay their mortgages so they kept thinking they were getting rich collecting premiums on the default swaps then things stayed coming apart, default rates started shooting up. AIG was next in line to fall and the Fed's stepped in and propped them up. But for brief moment credit matters froze. All the sudden liquidity dried up. And it wasn't just AIG and some wall street companies. Commodity prices crashed too. Oil came back to reality. Housing dropped. Things economically contracted hard.
Yes it was a good movie and sad reality
If you can see the patterns like an autistic Alan and play it well good luck to you... I'm sure 200 million home owners wont mind
It's important to note that the US dollar at least was not Fiat money in 1929. We have different problems today along with the same problems. I saw this crash coming before the pandemic. The pandemic just altered the playing field a bit. Even back then a lot of analysts were saying that we were coming to the end of the road.
In fact, some were saying it was already taking longer than they expected and a common line was, I had no idea how long the powers that be could keep kicking this can down the road.
Well, we finally run out of road. And what's happening today is much worse than what happened in 1929 in the 1930s, but at least one order of magnitude. Buckle up.
Well shit. There goes the rest of my teenage years and my 20s
@@athrowaway3487 every generation has their cross to bear. In my case it was the Vietnam war and the Carter inflation. But we got through it. 🤣
@@ReasonablySane yep, not much I can do about it.
@@athrowaway3487 you know, they're actually is something you can do about it. But you need to choose your side carefully. Meditate long and hard on the long-term effects of the politicians and policies you choose to support and protest against.
When Hillary Clinton came to Seattle as first lady back in the 90s and pushed her nationalized healthcare baloney on our city, I was there with my three daughters. We were part of a crowd of 3500 plus people protesting what she was doing while a group of about 300 hand-picked people were in the area right in front of her with well designed and printed signs. I was able to actually get into that front section and was even given a sign which I rolled into a megaphone. One of the more fun things I yelled through the megaphone was after she promised something I would yell, "THANKS, MOM!"
Thanks to our turnout in Seattle that day, followed by the one in Portland immediately after, the nationalized healthcare gauntlet was killed. Later I told my daughters that they made more difference that day than they could make in an entire lifetime of voting.
And notice that there were more conservatives in Seattle and Portland then than there are now. They were nicer places back then. 😁
@@ReasonablySane wait so you’re saying nationalized healthcare would kill the economy? How did you get there from the video???
The editing on these is always phenomenal.
Yah, editing is good.
Maybe so, but can’t help but feel it’s target audience is 6 year old... incredibly juvenile and immature, to the point of being annoying; especially the singing...
@@gregrn779 yeah. The signing, after the 3rd time, was increasingly irritating.
I f*ckin love the sound effects. Turns me on
when you buy stock on margin, you must have a margin account. This means that your stock is not in your name, it is in street name, and can be borrowed by short sellers. Margin accounts are the source of all short selling. A short seller (usually the specialist, also known as the market maker) borrows your stock and sells it on the open market with a promise to buy it back at a later date. So if the stock is borrowed and sold at 10 dollars, and the stock drops to 2 dollars, the short seller can "cover" which means they buy the stock back at the 2 dollar price, return the stock to the margin account it was borrowed from, and the short seller's profit is the difference or in this case 8 dollars.
Guys, thank you for your work in making this kind of content. I just wish everyone in the world would watch this and see that this kind of thing can be explained in a way they can understand. Maybe so many more people would wake up to the hype machines and the shady practices that suck so many people in, the world would be a much happier and more stable place to be. Thank you so much ❤️
Well spoken! I might be missing a bit about FED/other central bank's involvement in creating market cycles. The focus here was on Margin trading, FOMO and hopium. And that was very nicely formulated. 👏
When government allows institutions to take too much of people's money, shit hits the fan. Both government and institutions know very well what their actions and inactions will result in, they have the data and the smartest economists to tell them what will happen, but personal greed and corruption makes them blind and ignorant.
Taking shortcut often ends badly. Being part of crowd is main human flaw. Except when you go get back what yours from 1%. Then it's your last power left
I remember reading somewhere that in 2008 the US government relaxed rules against using money from criminal networks and a trillion dollars suddenly appeared to shore up failing banks and the stock market. They used drug, arms dealers, human trafficking money to "save" the economy.
Link to source?
no they didn't, they just printed more money. Stop reading Q anon type sites.
I'm Dutch and I hate investments it brings out the worst in people.
When people work for their income ( and I mean really work ) they stay humble and humane.
Prosperity without work destroys more than it builds !
I fear what this recession is going to imply, especially when the media and politicians keep claiming everything is going to be fine.
To my mind, we've been in a kind of pseudo-recession since the banking collapse, 2007/8. On paper, the GDP looked good sometimes, but many of the companies only existed on that paper. ('Zombie Corporations').
Employment seemed high, because people who are doing 2 or 3 jobs can be counted 2 or 3 times. Inflation looked low, because they rigged the stats, with the CPI instead of RPI, and dozens of more 'esoteric' tweaks I can barely understand. All the while, the 'real economy' was a flat line, and wages were actually declining. (You're probably aware that they've also redefined 'recession' now, to say we're not having one!)
I'm not sure which is more alarming: the whole thing falling apart, so that we can eventually (around 2027?) get back to economic sanity again, or yet another can-kicking exercise, so we can continue pretending things haven't been unravelling for a decade or more...
This recession implies what the word means; a few months to years of no economic growth.
@@Ferdinand208 True, but there's a wide spectrum of situations which could be described as 'no growth': the concern is that we're arguably overdue for a full-on crash/depression...
Having traded on the markets with small amounts, studied every popular book, watched every TH-cam video on the subject to 'read trends,' only to lose it all, i realised there was only one guarantee and that is.. there is no sure thing. I'm sitting here now, in a house I bought pre COVID and know what's coming, over the span of 3 years my house value has increased by 50 percent. No doubt people are riding this wave and in a few weeks theyl wish they hadn't.
It only increases or decreases once you sell it. Same with shares. Everything else is irrelevant
"it's just money" and "money can't buy happiness" are part of the problem.
The importance of money is so often downplayed and because of that a lot of people have to suffer whenever a crash happens again.
Man this is such a great piece you put together, amazing talking points and your great conversationalist, I don't feel anyone else really on TH-cam is talking about this enable the illustrate and tell the story you are, really love the piece keep them coming
Weston, do you really think slide bean put this video together all by himself?
Dude! How cool is it to listen to an eco lesson from a guy with your hair and t-shirt and starting it all with pizza!! And btw the best telling of the tulip bubble I've ever heard AND this video was so damn well done! I can't wait to watch more. I am beyond impressed and yes, to answer Russel Crowe in "Gladiator" I am entertained!
21:15 a subprime loan is a loan that actually has a higher interest rate than normal prime loans due to the borrower having a lower credit score and the bank insuring itself against it. the problem was that they gave these loans to people who shouldnt get or take ANY loan in the firstplace, disregarding if prime or subprime
People have been warning about this for years (pre-pandemic) and all i remember were people laughing saying that was impossible. It's fairly obvious when a bubble has been created. One of the greatest investors has said when everyone is having a party, that's when it's time to get out.
Another one I hear is when you see younger and younger people with more expensive cars, it’s time to have an exit plan
Most recessions through history are caused by the central bank, and it is the cause of this one too. It is well known that the major factors in an economy are self reinforcing - both in good times and also downturns. The central bank is charged with being the counter force in the economy.
Central bank is run by political appointment and so when its time to slow down the economy to ensure that it doesn't become overheated and create bubbles that eventually burst, there is enormous pressure to 'let it ride'. That is the greed that causes more recessions.
Look at how many times over the past year you heard central bankers say that 'inflation is transitory"....Lies and they knew full well they were lying and driving the economy off a cliff.
It's by design. Central banks cause recessions by overshooting with base rate hikes, this is to keep the natural equilibrium of economy down so as to not get runaway inflation.
@@makoy2689 The only 'by design' part of this behavior by central banks is to serve the short term political interest of those who appointed them as the expense of the economy in the medium term.... They know they are running the economy too hot and should slow things down to avoid a recession, but that would hurt the upcoming election cycle, so dammed the torpedoes - full speed ahead!!
Absolutely, this inflation was so obvious from a mile away with what the government and FED was doing. They just kept telling us it was under control when it obviously wasn’t. Now it time for the painful re-set where we all loose a lot of money.
In other words, artificial increases in money supply caused by manipulation of interest rate, in turn distorting the market incentives and creating a perfect environment for bad investments. Austrian school of economics explains this in a Austrian (surprise) Business Cycle theory.
Malinvestment, the byproduct of central banking and the producer of bubbles.
Worked in banks for almost 7 years. Imo housing loans must be limited to those properties where the owner is actually staying in it and no more than 1 per person / family to avoid rabid speculation. Other loans should be considered commercial loans and at higher commercial rate. And not repackaged further.
This is some of the most important and interesting information I have watched in a long time
Capital is one of the factors of production and I find more it only goes to speculators and businesses that frankly don't need it
i mean, if we give it to the public/people/community and make it serve the benefit of the average person, that's socialism
Your claim is that most investors are not smart enough to put their money in productive assets?
@@Ferdinand208 not particularly we work had a 40 billion dollar valuation. But most capital sellers deal with highly liquid bonds. Companies who are so big and profitable that they frankly only use debt to buy back their stock
@@wilfredpeake9987 We Work never got investors. They only had speculators hoping to strike it big. When We Work wanted to get on a stock exchange so investors could invest the numbers didn't seem to add up. Same with Theranos. All speculation because their numbers also didn't add up.
I think Tesla should be your example. I really don't get the valuation of that company yet it is an S&P500 stock-traded company making luxury cars...
@@Ferdinand208 what? Luxury cars is like their smallest sector
When your margin call is on plus, they will NOT pay, and when on minus, they ask you to pay ! If is any payment made, will be subject to TAX and penalties !
OMG ! I love the content and the presentation style. You had my attention for the whole video. Love company forencis, learning a lot from these videos and for the first time, I switched on a notification icon for you guys.
Never heard margin calls explained so easily, well done! Subscribing for future content!
At 21:23 in this video, he talks about subprime loans, but he describes an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM). A subprime loan is for borrowers who do not qualify for prime rate loans based upon their credit score. If you have a 600 credit score, then your interest rate for the same property will be higher than it would be for a person with a credit score of 780. Subprime loans exist for houses, cars, credit cards - literally anything that a financial institution will lend upon.
I have read enough about the Financial Crisis but this video is special,,I never thought Id learn something new about the Crisis until I watched the video. Its so well illustrated, explained in very simple terms. This guy is teaching better than my Econ professors. Definitely SUBSCRIBING!!!!
Good explanation and analogies in this video. But I disagree with your reasoning for the cause.
We may all have some responsibility but the degree varies vastly between regular people, retail investors, and corporate investors. These people have essentially combined housing and money as a concept, and sold it. Something that isn't really mentioned in this video is that due to how profitable it is, and at the same time how it drives up housing prices(which is a required commodity that everybody needs), anyone who doesn't get in on this race to flip houses is essentially getting poorer due to their money's value inflating unless they have alternative sources of income that can match it. What jobs actually match the housing prices' inflation rates? And even if there are such jobs, how many of such jobs are available for the vast majority of people?
These days people keep saying "take some personal responsibility", but what can we actually do in these scenarios to "take responsibility"?
Yea totally agree... low fixed rates for housing should only be available for first time home buyers... giving that to anybody and everybody just creates unnecessary divide where a handful of ppl end up with most of the land/resources... but the true root cause is central banking, fiat money and fractional reserve lending, all of which combined create inflation at an insane rate and honestly buying /flipping houses is the only way to keeping up due to the fixed rate leverage involved...
Blaming systemic issues on "personal responsibility" is just a poor way out.
The individual can not control the decisions made at the highest levels of banking/central banking, government and the ultra wealthy that influence these.
The individual is left with the choices that "the system" has created for them and there are certain incentive structures in place.
It's the job of govt. / Central banks to ensure that the system that is setup is actually one that works long term.
But it always get rigged by people with a lot of clout who want to exploit it.
The root of the evil itself is actually how the financial system is setup from the get go.
These things happen as the stock market has no memory, it collectively goes up and down without remembering what happened in the past
60% of the population of America lived below the poverty line before the Great depression. Concentration of wealth is the common denominator for economic disasters. All the other dates that were spewed out 1974, 1987, the dotcom bubble, we're not as bad because concentration of wealth wasn't as bad as it is now.
Very informative. What if the system is purposely built to have these ups and downs for the "owner class" to buy more on a downturn?
Bingo. You win a prize 🎉
If that is the case, the system would run out of buyers. Things are serious and invest is for the few. That's the sad reality.
That’s exactly how that works. Remember when everyone lost all of their money in 2008. Then they lost it again a few years later? It’s for the extremely wealthy. The can afford to take the hits. Money markets are the way to go. When interest rates go up, your MM yields go up. Stocks are a wild ride unless you can afford to lose money.
You described an adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) and called it a subprime loan. But a subprime loan means it was a loan created for somebody who, technically isn’t loan worthy. really doesn’t have anything to do with the interest rate per se.
Depression comes. Got land. Got physical gold. Got physical silver. Got garden. Got orchard. Got God. Got dry powder. Got happiness.
"The whole banking system is a scam " Godfrey Bloom
The important question not mentioned in this video is: how did people/banks got that much money and loans in 1929 for example? Because prices were fixed by the central bank and government, the interest rate was fixed in a very low number to stimulate the economy. What people don't understand is that is a form of price control, you are fixing the cost of money to a very low value, giving cheap money away endlessly, that's what causes overleverage and the big crisis.
You explain economics concepts in a very easy to understand way. Thanks and well done.
too bad its wrong
I really hope that you are a teacher or professor! You made this complex issue so understandable it was amazing. Great great great job!
With 400,000 subscribers, he probably reaches more people than a tenured professor ever would. Preaching common sense and moderation isn't sexy, but it's right. But even his page is plagued by investment scam spam. Anybody on a TH-cam comment board who puts up these fake discussions between fake accounts telling you how they make big money, is a scam. Just report them.
The thing that really gets my goat is that now automobiles have doubled in price and are being sold with APR loans, which is the same thing that caused the 2008 crisis. APR loans need to be illegal.
I am amazed you didn't mention the demise of Glass-Steagall under the guise of "deregulation" which allowed these manufactured crisis to get as bad as they did.