Why Card Counting Is Not A Guaranteed Success
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ก.ค. 2024
- Being a Professional Blackjack Card Counter is not easy. There are 5 major challenges that are hard to overcome for most people. In this video Colin will go over the most common reasons why people who attempt card counting never fully make it into a viable career.
SUBSCRIBE for Card Counting training:
th-cam.com/users/subscription_...
Get access to our FREE Card Counting Mini-Course:
www.blackjackapprenticeship.c...
www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/
/ blackjackapprenticeship
Basic Strategy:
www.blackjackapprenticeship.c...
0:00 Intro
0:44 House Edge
1:35 Back Offs
2:39 Bankroll Requirement
3:15 Variance
4:26 Loneliness
5:49 Darker Past
6:36 Learn More
I lost my life savings going into this. Didn't understand proper bankroll management early on. Went back into it a few months later after studying all over again from scratch. Turned a $1500 bankroll into just shy of $11k. Probably made closer to $16k total profit but I was taking money out from the sessions to live off of it. Then variance struck back again in February. Hit a major losing streak. Back at square one. Low bankroll players and poor mental/self control is a death sentence. You must be 110% at all times. Lessons learned. No more blackjack.
@@wesleyswafford2462 Every part of me wants to give this another shot but it is not financially feasible for me or time wise feasible. It sucks. I was doing very good. Was planning on registering for professional gambler status with the IRS if/when I hit the $50k range. Things just didn't work out.
My goal going in is to get a steady freelance income so I can do both; it would be nice to build a positive bankroll to live off of while also saving as much winnings as possible
@@edgymarshmellow8493 Just stick to the math like Colin says. Be professional at all times. Never play on tilt. Good luck.
Good decision I think. Its a bad game to try to make a living on.
If you're unable to handle bankroll and/or you have a tendency to gamble, just stay away from the tables. It's not for everyone and it's fine.
I've known many poker players with dazzling game skills but zero bankroll management and awful life management - all went broke.
I love that you included some facts about the “gold old days”. It’s never been easy, but it’s often easy to assume things are harder now than they were before. That’s definitely not the case now! I’d much rather have 6 deck games and not get thrown in jail or worse
sure but i'd much rather have 1980s games than play today.
Yes, but it's simply a fact that Blackjack games have worse rules now than they did 20-30 years ago.
In other words, it’s a job and either you put in the work or you don’t get paid.
Hearing that you lose 20-30 percent of your net sound just like tax still a hell of a lot better then grinding in the rain all day 😂
Another great video where the message may be focused on blackjack but applies in ways to all pursuits, much in the same way as your book. Thanks, hope you had a nice break!
I’m an experienced card counter with casino experience. The reason I gave it up is because of the negative variance. I had a positive shoe and it ended at TC +16 and I STILL got wiped out. I can’t stomach it. Now, the only time I’ll play is at tables with S17 and/or Late Surrender
If you could help me out: I'm playing in Europe and my bankroll is 1,000$ with a table min of 1$, the game rules are normal(H17, no surrender) double deck. What should my bet spread look like? What should I bet according to the true count? I would by the BJA pro-betting software but it's expensive and my bankroll is pretty small. Thanks 🙏.
Yes because you playing with less than 1% edge any gain will be wiped away from negative variance without a big bankroll to sustain it.
Thanks for the video! Insightful as always! Keep them coming!
#4 and #5 did it for me. It changed something that was fun, enjoyable, and leisure into something way too serious. That is when I realized I could not continue trying to count cards (or setting dice for craps).
That's a good decision you made
If you play blackjack for fun and the excitement of winning, counting isn't for you
That doesn't mean you shouldn't play, but limit yourself so that it doesn't become an addiction
Your videos are inspirational, Thank You Colin!
Yes, the variance... If you do multiple simulations of 2,000 hands with Hi-Lo and suggested bet spread you'd actually be surprised how many times you end up below your starting point. Was a real eye opener for me, because you tend to think that the game must be rigged when you just keep losing. I only play for fun and out of interest not for money.
Another insightful video. Thank you.
i know the bankroll is the issue for me. I've been focused on learning and have gotten pretty good. memorizing deviations now in the hopes that something changes.
Excellent video. This is no joke. I've found that there are no guarantees with Blackjack ever. Even if you can master all these elements, there is still the matter of time that one has to dedicate. Think it might deserve more emphasis. Unless your 100% dedicated there's a good chance you might not overcome the hurdles and ever see positive returns. People go bust on this stuff all the time.
Yeah u r right. For me blackjack was always predominantly game of chance rather than game of skill. No doubt it has element of skill, but given it is not a zero sum game with perfect information unlike chess, chance factor dominates the game
Colin, where is the that clip in the beginning from?
Hey Colin Jones can I ask you another question are you saying Clark County is even more stressful
Use the 2 buckets method, one bucket is 2 years of living expenses, the other bucket is your bankroll. Only spend your living expense money. After 2 years replenish your living expenses bucket from your bankroll. You can power through variance this way and focus on making correction decisions, instead of being results oriented.
I was just at Graton casino. All the blackjack games use the continuous shuffle machine. They have some double deck games with blackjack paying 6-5 and one table with single deck with blackjack paying 6-5 all hit soft 17 games.
I fooled around with casinos many years ago. I played the basic system about as well as one can. That will get you to about a 1%, or less, disadvantage. To turn the odds, you have to keep a count. I soon realized that if I put that kind of concentration into my day job, I would make a LOT more money than at the BJ table.
Fortunately, that's what I did.
For some reason every single time ive ever tried to play one on one, just me and the dealer I lose quickly, I nearly lose every hand in that scenario, I tried to avoid it but the last couple times i sat at a table with others Ive ended up alone and then boom ruin!
So Im not gonna do that again but im currently on a losing streak. I just cant seem to get the cards, even in hindsight, like say I have a 15. If I hit it I break. But afterwards I can see that I would have lost either way.
If I get 18 and they have 19 for example, there is nothing you can do. And Thats what Ive constantly ran into the last 3 times Ive tried. Im wondering if they are cheating or if It can really just be that bad.... im in Reno Nevada
I am 67 years old and my short term memory is going and has gone as far as card counting is concerned. I've done okay just playing Basic Strategy, the rules of which are long term memory. I took this course and do know how to count but I have never been able to hold on to the count for very long. If you are a senior citizen like me, consider whether your memory is up to the task.
I feel I’m in a unique position to take the positives of counting and not have to deal with so many negatives. I’m a professional opera singer who travels every couple weeks/months for the next production I’m in. Always in a new city. I can’t hit casinos during rehearsal weeks, but once shows start we get paid per show and all we do in terms of actual labor is doing the shows themselves. We tend to get multiple days off in between shows. Those days I can count cards at local casinos and if I catch heat it doesn’t matter because I’m gone in a couple weeks anyways. I’m doing a show in Central City/Black Hawk CO this summer, TONS of casinos there.
I had a 3 standard deviation negative variance over. 4 week period playing with the automatic shuffler, and I could not help notice that a majority of the shoes had clumping of aces and small cards, as well as big cards, such that doubling predominantly did not work out, and we frequently tied on 20s and blackjack. Mind you I’m playing perfectly with index plays.Ibam very hesitant to play with these shufflers.
Am new to card counting, and trying to memories basic strategy and working few exercises daily. I went though the illustrious 18 and there is a column called 'index'. Is index = running count or true count ?
Basic strategy deviations are done at true counts. For example, a running count of 12 with 6 decks remaining, is true 2, however the same running count with 4 decks remaining is true 3, so if the dealer shows an ace, a true 3 means it is correct to take insurance or accept even money.
Index is true count
I use to count and it didnt work well. I eventually gave up because ofvthe many times going in winning streaks during negative counts and losing streaks when positive.
Hey Colin Jones I know the question I like to ask you is I want to know why you're saying blackjack players and Pros are scared of the casino to getting backed off
I'd love to actually learn the techniques of how to do it. Not for profit, but, just as a thing to know.
When you start card counting do you divide every round by the number of decks that they are left to find the true count? Like for example round 1 you have a count of 4, do you dive that by 6?
yes, that's it.
If you are playing 6 decks !
I'm new to card counting and I love your videos but there is something I can't seem to find a solid answer to, I heard that it's illegal to back players off in Atlantic City and New York state for counting card as long as it's not on a reservation, I've been wondering if there is ANY truth to this
Yes, and also Missouri.
Hi Collin I am struggling to access your free mini course. Do you know what might be wrong?
I couldn't access it either
Curious if you've ever addressed the European style of BJ. One of the casinos I'm going to this weekend here in one province of Canada uses it. where the dealer only gives themselves ONE card face up and then plays out everyone's hand and THEN gives themselves the 2nd one. I found that the count can considerably change by the time their last card comes around if there are 3 or 4 players at the table. I absolutely hate it. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't this count as a disadvantage against you?
If you're comfortable with the info which casino? If not can you give other rules? Not going to do a deep dive but I was just looking at 2 games in Canada with European rules. I decided to stay on the southern side of the border but was curious myself. I can help you while sating my own curiosity.
I know where the casinos were I was curious about so I'll come back and edit with a little info after I look into it.
Edit: I was extremely tired last night and I was wrong about remembering where they were. Truthfully can't find them. I do remember they both only took original bet on a blackjack. Wizard of odds has a breakdown available to anyone I would recommend. Basic Strategy is altered slightly for these games.
@@DwazeHoer Casino Regina in Regina, Saskatchewan plays that way. The one cool thing there too is that there are two spaces behind the bet that others can bet behind on your hand and you on theirs.
@@guibox3 No hole card isn't something I've played but it doesn't seem that odds are much different. As for the European style games I was looking into, Im starting to think i should have looked deeper before saying anything. Could just be someone talking shit and it looks like it might be. I've worked Graves so long I don't do well this early and since I decided against the trip north I didn't do much research beyond the, "that seems interesting" sort. I'll have to check after a bit of sleep.
I do recommend checking wizard of odds. You can find breakdowns of every casino game you can think of and nearly every variation with exact house edge.
Anyone else find casinos disgusting like physically gross and mentally draining
I do. Even when I occasionally played, I found them depressing. They reek of "loserism". No windows, no clocks, flashing lights, and everywhere, stupid people pissing away money they can't afford. Those magnificant palaces are "Monuments to Losers". But, long after I stopped wasting money in casinos, I took a part time job in one as a driver, shuttling loser around. Just walking through that place depressed me. Then last time I walked out, I stopped to chat with a lady who was about to leave. She was standing by a blackjack table, she had five $5 chips in her hand, so she decided to try her luck. Five straight hands, she lost. There was no way she could have played it. If she hit, she busted. If she didn't hit, the dealer had better cards. This was like a gut punch to me, because it looked so damned familiar. Those places disgust me.
At times it is. What's even more gross is not showering for 2 days and being wired on caffeine all that time, with nothing more than occasional naps at the car, before finally getting a hotel room because you wanted to save a little money on travel costs.
One time, I had the genius idea of going to a gay sauna to save money on hotels, only to quickly find out the background music is too loud for normal sleeping, and it's not as comfortable or peaceful as a hotel room.
Nah
Nope, just you.
@@ianandersen265 wtf lmao
The low’s can be difficult to face. Hard not to let your emotions take over. Winning is great, taking losses can be very stressful. Some days it can be downright awful! Dealer bust cards not busting, double downs not catching, no qualifying hands on a bust while dealer makes a hand, 5-6 card 21’s made by the dealer, etc….
The downswings reveal who is and isn't a successful card counter
If you get emotional and start betting recklessly, run as far away from a casino as you can get.
If you can stay levelheaded and plan for the long term, you'll be successful
Fax I'm on a 100 and I think 120 hour losing streak a 120 hour losing streak I don't know if I'm ever gonna climb out of it
That's how it's been the last 3 times I've went. I only brought $100 each time and played a $10 table but I've just lost everything, I split AA with a 6 showing. I got a 17 and an 18 and the dealer turned the 6 into a 21. The very next hand I got QQ and the dealer again got 21.
I get 17, they get 18. And on and on. Couldn't even play long enough to attempt to get into any kind of a rhythm. And not nearly long enough to try to get a count
Colin, please can you answet my question? Is it possible to count cards if the casino is using a continuous shuffle machine?
Lol automatic shuffler, yes. Continuous shuffler.... absolutely not!
Whats your opinion on handheld devices that you can keep the count on? Just something you can check on if you accidentally lose the count?
It's illegal to use any sort of device to assist you in counting at a casino. I would not recommend it.
Haven't counted cards in awhile, i needa get back in the game 😭 made me feel alive lol
Why not do High/Lo with red sevens counted as well? I have red it helps move the edge a bit.
Hi-Lo is a balanced count which identifies betting opportunities slightly better than Red 7. This means the Hi- Lo win rate is slightly better. Also, there is an slight increase in EV when using strategy deviations which are done at the correct true count levels. Red 7 can’t track deviation plays accurately however it is an easier system to implement. I did a study once keeping track of betting opportunities on 8 decks using Hi-Lo, and using the same 8 decks in the same order and noted down when Red 7 identified betting opportunities. Red 7 sometimes identified betting opportunities at a Hi-Lo true 0 when there may be a slight edge against you. Hi-Lo also uses the true count as an indicator for ramping up bets according to the player’s advantage. Determining when to ramp up bets using Red 7 can be difficult to determine which means you may not have as big a bet on the table that Hi-Lo would recommend. These things add up to lower win rate and increased fluctuation which is still ok for most folks. However, the extra skills for using Hi-Lo, deck estimation and true count conversion, are not difficult to learn with practice and you will be able to play a slightly better winning game.
*read
How do I join the Blackjack Apprenticeship forum?
www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/features/
I want to hear your opinion on CSM’s. It seems like they are taking over casinos. In 5 years will every casino have them?
I just want to be more efficient at BJ, If I can achieve that then winning will be a by-product. I'm saving up to purchase the top tier membership, I'm betting on myself
What is the dollar amount of chips you can cash in Las Vegas casinos without them forcing an Id ?
Just under 10k.
Blackjack is easy, I've already lost $6500 just waiting for the 1% variance to kick in.
It can take anywhere from 500 to 1000 hours of play before you actually make a profit, but once you get to this point, the game will take off and it becomes more unlikely that your results will dip below zero again. Few skilled players win from the start and grow a small bankroll into the right sized bankroll required for a certain game.
Nothing can replace the experience you get from actually playing at the casino. Be prepared to lose money when you are first starting out. It is a price you must pay to get the experience. But, for me, after trying to count cards in the casino, something finally clicked one day and I went from struggling to keep count to suddenly having everything seem clear. It's just something you have to do enough times before your brain actually starts doing it automatically - or so I believe. I just have two tips which I would like to share ( for what it's worth). First, I do not count every card as it comes off the deck. I wait until the round is dealt, then just subtract the low cards from the high cards to get the count. The first thing I do is figure out which cards cancel each other out, then I go from there. It's surprising how many cards do actually cancel each other out. My only other tip would be concerning bankroll. Not having a sufficient bankroll immediately at hand has been my biggest mistake, the last few times I hit the casino. I mean we are talking about needing a minimum of $5000 for a $10 a hand minimum with a $1000 table limit and a 1-8 spread. And even that is risky. Better to have $10,000. I quickly discovered that my minimum withdrawal limits on my ATM cards were woefully low. Now I get the cash in hand before I hit the casino.
I started off many hours of practice in a casino that did $2 bets. I would play hours and hours just getting things right and feeling the casino atmosphere. I agree that nothing beats practical experience!
I think $5000 is a bit excessive for a $10 table. I've usually played a $10 with a bankroll of $400 and a 1-4 or 1-5 bet spread and have come out a winner more than a loser. I know I should have more and my risk of ruin is probably high, but I think for my style $1000-$2000 would be ideal, but $5000? If you need $5000 to cover your losses at a $10 table you probably should be finding something else to spend your money on.
@@guibox3 The figure of $5,000 was obtained from betting software. I just plugged in the table rules, minimum bet, etc. The results that came up showed the percentage chance of going bust with a $5000 bank, a $10,000 bank, etc. Below a $5000 bank, the percentage chance of going bust was significantly higher - enough so that I settled on $5000 as my own personal comfort zone. It all depends on your own personal comfort zone and how much risk of going bust you are willing to accept.
@@guibox3 I should add that for me, not going bust is a main priority.
@@guibox3 Your "Risk of Ruin" with a $400 bank on a $10-$1000 table is very high - according to the software I'm using. But you raise an excellent point - luck (which is variance). A couple months ago, I went in to play with $400. I did not even bother to try counting (well ok, just a little) and I walked out with $700. It was just one of those days where the cards just kept falling my way. But to me, the difference between a casual player and a card counter is that the counter plays the numbers - by which I mean the odds. And he does it consistently. Can a casual player walk in and get lucky, just by playing a perfect game? Absolutely. And he may get lucky, two or three times in a row. Maybe even four times. But the luck runs out eventually, and when the luck changes it can wipe you out. I prefer to go with the statistics. I mean, this isn't a new game. The statistics have all been worked out. In fact, playing to the statistics is the only way that a player can overcome "luck" - over the long term. But that's the difference between a casual player, and someone who has decided to make card playing a job, just like any other. It isn't what happens today, or tomorrow. What matters is how much money you made at the end of the year.
I think BJA has been rightfully criticized for making card counting sound like easy money, so I’m glad you made a counter argument for balance.
To be fair to BJA, he has to make it sound easy to learn otherwise he's pushing away potential Viewers / Customers
They’ve literally made multiple videos about how hard it is
I always see the tone of the other BJA videos showing that it's "possible", and that all the resources available to learn are "tangible"...but the points brought up in this video are always mentioned in several other videos. It's not easy-going.
@@adambrand2793 Truth.
@@billzbounce using counting only, makes it next to impossible to make money. The old lady on the next table, knows you are counting.
Does it matter how many decks are used for card counting? Can you ask the dealer how many decks are used?
@Stanley .. of course you can ask them. Typically a multi deck shoe is 6 decks (some 8)
Regarding the question of how many decks are 'used' for card counting: single deck, double deck and multi deck shoe. Something you want to look for is deep penetration meaning they go through most of the cards in a deck or a shoe and that's not the case.. they like to cut you short. Many single deck or what they call 'pitch games', the dealer goes about half to three-quarters of a deck. Hope this helped 😎🐊
Is better to play a 15 min w surrender or 10 min without it?
If all the other rules are the same, definitely play the one that offers surrender. Of course your bankroll needs to be big enough for a higher minimum.
Late surrender, a waste of time, and will get you barred as a counter!
You have the "best looking" Basic Strategy chart but can y’all make the "Pair Splitting Section" breakdown whether or not to Hit or Double Down on.
I’ve honestly never been scared by a back off. I’ve always grinned and just went back in a month. I live in Las Vegas and some of these local places don’t recognize you especially if you wear a mask.
what happens when you get backed off the second time?
I burned out my savings on the game. I spent a lot of time reading the books, practicing at home, learning the math and many deviations only to still end up broke. Now I am so far removed from the game after the covid lockdown that I would have to start all over again if I ever choose to step into a casino again.
At least now because of Covid, you can now hide your face easily in casinos with a mask.
How did you burn your money?
@@Woodsaras See above! I wouldn't recommend it to anyone especially now. Casinos are making the game worse and worse. My local casinos changed the rules over the pandemic that it is even more difficult to get an advantage.
been practicing counting for about a month and some change now. After a bit more practice I'm gonna give it a go with a 1000 dollar bankroll at $5 tables with a 1-5 spread (Not much, I know. But wish me luck haha). Been waiting for an upload so thanks man
@@paulosullivan7204 Thank you for the tip and for the luck, will look into that right away
I wish I could find tables that low
Here the minimum is 25$ in ontario
@@paulosullivan7204
Easier counts contain less information so you'll get less EV
But as long as you understand that and you eventually move onto hi-lo with deviations, you'll be successful
@@dustinjames1268 I found the same where I am at... Keep practicing and save some money for the bankroll required to succeed (aka have lowest possible risk of ruin). Then go at it.
@@Futballplayer
I'm still not a perfect player yet so I've got a few months to save up
If there's anything people can learn from my comments and Colin's videos, it would be
DO NOT go to the casino until you're 100% perfect at basic strategy and keeping the count otherwise you're the exact kind of fish the casino is trying to catch and take your money
I have to admit that I wouldn’t pursue this career even if I believed I could succeed. It sounds like a rough slog, going to smoky dark casinos, passing hour after hour playing a game, trying to pretend you aren’t counting and then dealing with back offs. Seems to take some real grit.
Ed Thorpe did have the advantage of casinos dealing the entire deck before reshuffling, before they caught on to what Thorpe was doing, in the early years. Of course, once card counting became big, everything changed!
You thought 200 hours was bad? My blackjack career started with over 500 hours of losing. For most card counters, they would be toast. However, I was stubborn, persevered, found an opportunity with Digideal, and got away with murder counting cards, taking that casino for a whopping $60k plus comps, including steak dinners for my family, until eventually getting 86d.
One more reason: most games now suck even in Las Vegas unless you play minimum $50-$100 per hand, and at those tables the scrutiny is going to be such that they’re going to know you are card counting as soon as you raise your bet.
Vegas has gotten bad in the past few years.
Going to Vegas to count cards is pretty much a death sentence. I got backed off and flyered in 10 minutes. Made $100 and never went back again
@@21AceJack play in the south they have lower minimums and better rules
At 3:02 I spotted a one dollar bill!! If you look very closely to the stack almost to the top right of the screen, there is a 100 bill on top of the stack and then the next bill underneath is a one dollar bill!
so what?
@@DinoCarrot so you’re going to watch someone who uses fake prop money in parts of his videos
@@proficentfox2418 i don't care
@@DinoCarrot you must obviously do less than the absolute bare minimum to get through life. CM fanboy
That clip was from the holy rollers documentary I’m sure the B-camera crew on the film weren’t allowed to take $500,000 in all 100’s from the team to privately shoot the scenes on their own.
Same
The issue with card counting in BlackJack is if you can master this skill, you have the ability to do math well enough, that you would win more money per hour playing poker, with no chance of being backed off and less variance.
I have never tried to make a living off blackjack. I'd hate to, not to mention it be nearly impossible.
For me its a hobby - a side hustle. Like a roller coaster that gains elevation ever so slightly to pay off gas, travel expenses and gratuities lol.
Yup. I live in a rural area so when I don't get to play very often to make it a lucrative job. But when I do go to the big city I do fairly well either recuperating losses or making a profit with counting cards. A couple of weeks ago when I went, I walked out almost $400 up and that was only with a 1-4 bet spread on a $15 minimum table after about 5 shoes.
@@guibox3 Most of my wins/losses are within +/-$500, though sometimes the range is greater. I play low limit and shoot for up to 1:12 bet spread if the count allows which often enough it doesn't. I play short sessions. Miraculously my bankroll is intact - fluctuating between 12 and 15k on very limited playing time this year..
What does loneliness feel and btw I have no friends
Hey Colin Jones that was a good video but one thing I have to disagree with you is casinos always gets lucky
All games of chance have an advantage which favours the casino. However, the outcome of a bet for the player is either a win, a loss or a stand-off. So in the short term anyone can have a winning streak against the advantage but if the player plays long enough, they will lose. Good luck and bad luck eventually cancel out and what the casino is left with, is the house edge x the turnover. Blackjack has about a 2% house advantage for a non skilled player. Just learning and playing the correct basic strategy for the game, reduces the house advantage down to 0.5%, an almost break even game.
However, the interesting thing about blackjack is that the player and dealer are playing by different rules. When a shoe has a lot of small value cards dealt out early on, we know that the 10s and aces are still in the shoe and must eventually come out. These cards give us more winning hands and by counting, we identify these times when the advantage favours us and place big bets. We develop an edge of about 1% over the house which adds up to real winnings over time. However, we still have to put up with the same winning and losing streaks a gambler has.
I don’t mean to put another downer on card counting, but I know you always make sure you say you’ve made thousands and won teams millions in card counting. But I bet 99% of card counters, even some of the best out there haven’t got anything to show for it. I know a lot of of professional slot players in the uk that are in similar situations.
Its a hard way to make an easy living
Well said.
I wonder if Colin is still into faith? 🤔 He started out on the "Church Team" and made the Holy Rollers film. I hope he hasn't thrown his faith aside since his newfound success 🤨
Negative variance monster 🧟♀️👹👺
Sounds a lot like the life of an OTR truck driver. Though the money is not quite as good.
hard way to make an easy living. im better than most at dealing with variance due to playing poker (had a 100k+ hand downswing, which happens about 5% of the time), but i didnt need to travel for it. i can do it online. putting in the hours needed for perfecting ap bj, and then the travel on top, its not the most appealing prospect ever
This subject fascinates me, although I will never try it. I assume you have to plug along for extended periods of time before the shoe is in your favor. I am guessing that most of the time the shoe stays reasonably balanced, and as often as it shifts in your favor, it must also shift the other way. If the shoe is at a minus 2, do you continue playing your minimum bet, or "wong out"? Of course, it can shift back at any round. And if you wong out, you may not get your seat back. Those times when the shoe goes plus 2 or better must be few and far between, and you have to grind along waiting for that to happen.
It can definitely be frustrating sometimes. +2 is fairly common though, over the course of a shoe it’ll generally swing between -2 and +2. When I first started out I was worried that you’d have to spend hours in a casino waiting for a high enough count to throw out max bets but honestly you hit +4/5 more often than you’d think.
80% of the time the count is 0 or negative
20% of the time the count is +1 or better
This means that without aggressive play to take advantage of positive counts, you will still lose money over time
Bet spreads are important as well as bankroll management
@@Sociobid Come to think of it, you probably do not have to go deep in the deck to get a favorable account. I can imagine that on the very 1st round a whole bunch of low cards jump out and you could have a plus 1 or better 1st crack out of the Box. I suppose that can happen.
@@billlawrence1899 Yup, seen it happen plenty of times. Also have seen the opposite and had to leave the table for a smoke break after the first couple of rounds lol.
I don't wong out and leave the table to find another one because as you said, the count can change dramatically in one round of hands with 3-4 people playing. The last time I went, I told the dealer I was going to sit it out for the time being and I let the other people play while keeping the count. Doesn't look suspicious because everyone was losing and players do that all the time to 'shake up the deck'. Other times I use a high negative count to my advantage. When you are getting 15 and 16 hands, your chance of getting a low card to make a better one is much higher so there is less risk to hit those. Sometimes I literally had a running count of +22 and I lost 85% of the hands. Another time, the running count was in the negative double digits and I couldn't lose.
I built up a bankroll of $1500 startimg from $40 at my local casino and they finally backed me off . Now there are no more casinos in my area not sure what i should do, I really want to keep playing
LOL The early card counters had a remarkable edge of 2% or more not so much in today's blackjack games.
A lot of ppl aren't disciplined enough.
I watch one guy, I could tell was counting but didn't know true v running count, didn't understand bet deviation and was scared to hit 16 against a face card.
In short, he learned the intro level shit and wasn't disciplined enough to learn the rest, so he got eaten alive.
I’ve seen people who know how to count, are adequately bankrolled and know some of the deviations, and they just can’t handle losing streaks. What they haven’t understood, is that fluctuation is much bigger and can go on for much longer than you think. This means they can end up chasing their bets which makes you lose any advantage over the game, or they just give it up because it’s not “working”. What kept me going in the early years, was plotting my wins and losses along with the standard deviation curves. In the end, I realised that a long streak where I didn’t win anything for months, was just a swing from 1 +ve standard deviation to 1 -ve standard deviation. The maths predict that I should be within + or - 1 std deviation 68% of the time, and so I was. As I put in more hours, my results kept improving and eventually reach a new all time high. The maths and your own graph plots give you a bird’s eye view and act like a roadmap.
Not that I'm qualified to add to this list of reasons why few people can earn a profit counting cards, but I feel like this is worth mentioning.
False confidence... This kind of goes hand in hand with people thinking it's easy, just because they saw it in a movie, or even learned basic strategy. They walk in, throw their money down, and comics to unknowingly shoot themselves in the foot with mistaken basic play, over and under betting, and trying to 'hide' the fact that they're counting cards by breaking away from basic strategy, and betting too high on a new deck.
All the while thinking they're just having bad luck, when in actuality, they're just playing wrong.
No 5 is the hardest thing
So publicly saying that most people will fail would you say you're knowingly taking people's money for something you know for a fact %90 of your students will fail at?
Shut up
Do you think you can be successful playing perfect strategy blackjack in a casino where they use an auto-shuffle machine.
If you mean a continuous shuffler (CSM), then no. You will never have an edge on any game that uses a CSM.
@@tmtmtlsml you are wrong! Macau had a game with csm where the big players made money. I also know of other games where you can beat csm. I have been barred there. Lol
@@bobbyd9319 csm is not beatable not for blackjack or other poker games
@@noskpain2792 says you! People have been able to beat those machines, all it takes is good rules, and a cash back program.
PickleRick!!!!
Gambling wears you out that's for damn sure!
Nice קוקה קולה shirt
After watching this video it's crystal clear, you just need to buy a casino, then you'll always have the edge and you'll be rich.
Not a guarantees success? I think the title should read "Why Card Counting Rarely works" instead. Unless your bank roll is sufficiently large, and unless you play a TON, you can easily get caught in a loosing streak that cannot be overcome.
Counting cards it's over,beating ten and change that to 200 houndred and up,they stop you playing right way.
no one in their right mind is using a 1-20 bet spread lmfao
I think most people realize that hi lo is not an exact science. It doesn't predict what will be dealt to whom it's more of a confidence builder.
It lets you know the composition of the deck
It gives you a rough idea of your odds
For example if the count is +1, you have a 0.5% edge on the house
If the count is +3 it's nearly 1.5% advantage
It's not about the short term wins or losses, it's about the long term.
If you flip a flip a coin and have 51% odds to win every time, you will generate small but steady expected value which pays out in the long term.
Trust the math
Example
If you do the 51% coinflip (+2.5 or better count) for a 100$ bet every time, you're expected to gain 1$ per bet
So if you do this 1,000 times, you can expect around 1000$ of profit after all is said and done
@@dustinjames1268 quick question, does the dealer not also benefit from a positive card count?
@@markchristian7377
Yes but not as much as you benefit.
When the dealer gets a BJ they win your bet
When you get BJ you win your bet +50%
I can’t stop loosing
My first introduction to blackjack was a bankroll loss of 70%. I have also had 2 situations in a 15 year career, where I lost the entire bankroll amount required to play with a 2% risk of ruin. It was a swing from 1 +ve std deviation up above the win rate line to 1 -ve std deviation below the win rate. Played on, got it all back and more. When you run a simulation, one thing it tells you is the risk of ruin based on the rules and bet spread. A simulation isn’t just working out complex maths, it’s actually randomly shuffling, dealing and recording the results of at least 1 million hands. This means the simulation will have losing streaks on occasion which are equal to or bigger that the bankroll amount one sets at the beginning. This is how it works out the risk of ruin for a given bankroll. Weathering a huge loss can test your resolve at the start of one’s playing career but you can lower your bet spread. This will reduce fluctuation, slightly lower your win rate and preserve bankroll, but you will have to play for more hours until your bankroll recovers to where you can increase your bet spread again.
*losing
You are loose
Hi I played online casinò but i lost a lot of money despite applying strategy and card counting. My bet is 5 euros and i m under 500 euros. How can i get back up?
Don’t play online casinos
Online casinos are not worth your time to count. The rules, deck penetration, and playing speed keeps your EV miserably low
@@dustinjames1268 what if, you play 5 of them at the same time?
@@JaviEngineer
The deck penetration still makes that an issue
As you get further into the deck, you have more certainty of your odds.
You're better off finding local casinos that don't cut off entire decks
80% of the time the count will not be in your favor, so counting is about maximizing the value you get out of the 20% of the time that conditions are favorable for you
They only use 1/2 the shoe!!! No bueno!!!
That's true but if you go in with this attitude I guarantee you will lose
While I realize the House is collecting the losses of everyone at the table, why isn’t it possible to just play by the rules the dealers play by to beat the dealer at their own game? There’s a reason the House sets the rules for the dealer to use. I suppose the answer is that the House still has the edge over the long run and since they are collecting all of the losses they win. It just seems to me that if I play like the dealer I should be able to beat the dealer at their own game, especially since I have the option to walk away when I am ahead.
What a great and cute question!! - Even MORE noteworthy is how in 12 days, no one seems to know or been able to answer your question!!
The simple answer to your question - one that anyone with a bright mind is quite much the FIRST question one should have????
the answer is called the break-advantage.
Say you have 2 cards - 15 total. Say the dealer has their one card showing - a 10.
So, you hit, since you in most cases quite much have to. So, you get another 10 and you bust. THE DEALER NOW TAKES your money!!! - they have not even played their hand yet!!! They can draw and bust, but your money is already gone!!!
So, in simple terms? You both trying to get towards 21, but when you bust, and EVEN when the dealer busts? They taken your money!
So even if the dealer does bust, or not bust? In other words, when you BOTH bust - they still take your money!
In fact, with a high count? Well, you do VERY well, even when you get a stiff, and so does the dealer. With a high count, you don't have to draw cards, but the DEALER MUST draw cards to at least 17!. They will bust left, right and center. I think I made as much money from dealers getting a stuff with high counts as much as any other type of play.
But, your question is actually a good one - certainly a question when starting out, but I still feel it is a great question. And MORE amazing? Often those even with some familiarity with the game can't answer this question!
So, if you both bust, you lose. In fact, anytime you bust, you lose and the dealer at that point can also bust, but they already taken your money!
@@Albertkallal I’m not a novice. I’ve been playing Blackjack for decades and I never take the dealer’s bust card if the situation is right. Unfortunately that requires the cooperation of the entire table. It seems the only time I win consistently is when I play 3rd base. You still cannot control how the people in front of you play, but you can make the final decision. I’ve made a lot of money for myself and others playing 3rd base correctly. For those of you who don’t know what you are doing, please don’t sit in the last chair before the dealer (3rd base).
@@truthsayer9534
I think you much missed my point. I simply stated that with a high count and the dealer has a stiff hand - they bust like crazy, and if you spent time counting cards, you would see and realize that. This simple point of mine had ZERO to do with taking the dealers card, and I mentioned zero about such an narrative. So, lets try this again:
*_With a high count and the dealer has a stiff, they bust like crazy_*
Nothing more, nothing less is to be read into that statement I made above.
If you made $300/hr then you had to of risk/bet $30,000/hr just to make $300
The best way to beat the casinos then?. Is to bump into one of the bouncers and get beat up by them and as you're getting beat up and getting your bones broken?. you yell cha cha ching dollar signs so they can't beat you up anymore. And then you get even more bold and bump into a slave Patrol and get your leg broken and tased and you yell again cha cha ching!. LOL 😂 that's how you win that gambling
Most games you can't get a 1% edge like this guy claims. 0 5 to 0.8% is more realistic playing solo with the right game.
I give it to him that you could get 1%, but not without excessive bet spread and higher risk of ruin. Not only that, but you'd find yourself thumped out the door on your rear too often...
Jeez what a buzzkill.
Why people will never count cards are because of videos like this. Where's the video that shows how card counting works. Where does it show how the running counts covert to true counts when to bet more or less in action. All these videos show nothing of a real card counter in action. Anybody can make videos like this which tells you pretty much nothing. Where's the videos showing you how they make millions off the casino. They should not take millions off the casino it hurts there business. In a way I don't blame them. Take out a hundred thousand from time to time that's plenty of money. If your going to make a video show how to covert the running count into the true count where you can prove your raising or lowering bets and how to change your playing from the basic strategy.
He made a video about the true count
Clearly you haven’t checked out our website, TH-cam channel, my book, or our App.
Being on the side of a casino 🚩🚩🚩🚩
Running the gauntlet with the fluctuation is emotionally draining at times and you can often wonder why counting isn’t working and give it all up. Having a mentor to check your play and help you deal with the downswings and losses, is invaluable. There will come times when you don’t understand why you aren’t winning, or you have had a good win and now you are losing heavily. Being able to hear stories of other players who have gone through the same emotional hurdles is extremely helpful. I have seen many counters who learnt from a book but lack a knowledge of the finer maths of the game. These players gave up because they chase their bets and can’t handle losing. And yet, had they had just that little bit better understanding of the game from a mentor, they could have hit paydirt.
It hurts *their business