You failed to address that if the probability is greater than zero then it WILL eventually happen given infinite time, no matter how tiny the probability. You should know better as a physicist, Neil. I love Star Talk but this one annoyed me a lot.
Why is this a thing?🤨🤨🤨 I would accept royalties... And I'm charitable...wtf.. I started a pay it forward movement..idk if you guys know that or not... I'm not greedy at all..🙄🤷 Way to judge a book by a cover.. You guys are dumb..😒🙄 Blackmailing...🤨🙄🤷
The level of authentication doesn't matter when it comes to the BIG GUYS. I heard some stories on how they did it. Here is one example. Title: Exposing The Flaw In Our Phone System. Timeline: 07:08 The kidnapping of Sheikha Latifa Timeline: 16:17 How I was able to spy on Linus’ phone Duration: 31:54 Channel: Veritasium@veritasium
A man is anxious about taking his first airplane flight. He is concerned the plane will have a bomb. His friend who understands probability tells him the odds of a bomb being on the plane is 1-289,876,398 (made up number, it's a joke) The man says he still feels uneasy even with those odds. So his friend suggests that he bring his own bomb onto the plane. The mans says WTF? Why would I do that? His friend's answer: "The odds of TWO bombs being on the plane are ASTRONOMICAL!!!" I was so lucky my dad was a math genius and always taught me about probabilities and real risk assessment. That was his joke by the way.
That's a fun and creative joke. However, probability is still just a probability. The moment it happens to you, for you alone, the event becomes a truth grounded in reality, no matter how minuscule the original mathematical conclusion was.
@yaonyaon9460 Once something actually happens it's no longer a matter of probability. Something that most people don't understand. That's the joke. Bringing your own bomb doesn't change the odds of another bomb being on the plane.
I discovered StarTalk and love love love it! It's funny and instructive simultaneously. I want to see every episode. Signed 87 yr old widow with a C in physics from UI 1959.
Hey Chuck, here's another one where the house always wins. Stockbrokers make a commission 1) when you buy and another commission 2) when you sell. Regardless of whether you win or lose.
I had a fantastic math teacher when I was studying at an alternative school, who decided to teach me probability. Not only did I enjoy learning it, but it made me love math and excited to learn more. Never did I think I’d be someone to request moving on to Calculus!
Something you will find out very easily. When a city says a portion of the proceedings will go to education they mean is that the casino is paying for it INSTEAD of the city. Education funding directly drops in proportion to the money the casino gives and in almost EVERY instance the city council gives themselves a nice raise. This is ON TOP of the property tax exemption they get for the next 10-20 years. No city should ever allow a casino. IT is almost always rooted in some kind of corruption as those council member always get a bunch of gifts.
We just legalized sports betting in Missouri. The athletes themselves did ads for the measure. There was the same promise made that had been made earlier for the state lottery and riverboat casinos.
The lottery is similar. When they say the funds will go to education they don’t say they won’t remove the previous funds. So the education funding doesn’t go up
I studied probabilities and I still buy lotto tickets once or twice a month . . . I put money in savings too, but when I'm buying the lotto ticket, I'm buying a couple of days of dreaming about winning.
Same. This is basic Œconomics and lays out in stock pricing as well. There becomes a point where the expected payout of the lottery, which is the likelihood of winning, the value of the payout, your risk aversion, and the utility (re satisfaction) of the amusement of the dream from playing are equivalent to the $2 in your pocket.
@@SilasJones-g7w One ticket or 100, either way you get basically the same thing - an insignificant but non-zero chance of winning that gives your mind the "right to dream" about winning.
Wow. Great episode. The beginning part talking about how unlikely it is that we as a person exist was beautiful. And the second half, well I’ve never wanted to go back to using cash and ditching online shopping so fast.
I took statistics in college as a requirement for my major. It was great class, the professor related everything to baseball, I quickly learned the difference between probability, odd and prediction. I highly recommend the class.
“What is life? A frenetic chase. What is life? An illusion. What is life? A shadow, a fiction. What is life? Life is a dream, and dreams are dreams “ Pedro Calderon de la Barca
i like that they brought on a cybersecurity person here. i think chuck brought up a good question about password managers. the problem with a master password is that it is the single point of failure. if your master password is somehow cracked or released in a breach then all your passwords will then be public. its good to keep your password vault offline and separate from machines that are connected to the internet. it is hard to use a vault though when the laptop is not able to access the internet.
We can never reduce the risk to zero, which is what the "offline password vault" is trying to achieve. It's so slow and frustrating to use that in a time-restricted world people will fall out of the habit of using it. An online encrypted vault with a single unique password (one you've never used with a different account and that's not based on your family or daily life, is a more practical solution. This is what I personally use and have done for years. My master password has never been used elsewhere and is not even English. Hackers would then have to brute-force it, which is very process intensive. I believe they'd move along to the next victim or next vault they were trying to brute-force. Select a reputable password manager using strong encryption and you've minimised your risk without adding significant effort on your own part. Offline vaults are a solution akin to saying "I'll never fly ever because of the tiny risk of a plane crashing" and then having to deal with the time-consuming alternatives of driving/rail for long-distance.
I just make up a strong password, then forget about it, then when I want to log in again I hit the "forgot your password" link, then make a new strong password I can usually remember just long enough to log into the website 😂
So awesome having my own personal astrophysicist. Though the odds don't look good, I'm positive the rest of you will also find your own personal astrophysicist some day.
Have you learned nothing about probability, if you can stumble upon one, then one would think the probability is pretty high. Do you also hire a personal trainer and think you're his/her only client? Personal doesn't mean it's exclusive to you, multiple people can have the same personal astrophysicist, no?
Nine minutes in and need to say I'm loving the discussion. I've recently been watching a series about probability and philosophy. Hearing other povs is wonderful.
This lesson on analytics and risk assessment sure fits these times we are in. This is valuable information that should be absorbed by open minds who like to make a positive difference in the world.sometimes we have to put our emotions aside and let the math make the decision. Could make for a more educated and efficient American society.
For us here in Maharashtra(India) Probablility, statistics, set theory, permutations and combinations, calculus were part of syllabus of which stat and sets were taught to anyone who completed 10th grade while rest were compulsory for those who elected to study maths(under science stream while for those who went to commerce didn't learn calculus) in 11 and 12th.
It would be very nice if you could translate this to different languages like Spanish. I would love to show this to my friends and family abroad. Love the show!!
We were taught Statistics at A level in my school (Dynevor Senior Comprehensive) with a teacher called doctorr Jowett. He was very interesting as a lecturer and got me interested in the subject. Good on you , Dr. Jowett. You were one of my favourite Teachers.
You should send Dr Jowett an email or letter and thank him yourself as the probability he sees your comment is very low. 🤣 Plus, isn't it nice to discover you made an impact on someone no matter how big or little?
No they are dumb...they should have blackmailed me after they gave me the money...they are just holding the process up 😂🤣 I went to the feds..😂🤣 We'll see 😂🤣 They are just hold up the process because i can accept royalties and I'm charitable..they have no leg up at all 😂🤣 I'm dealing with immature children 😂🤣 They are dealing with an actual literal genius 😂🤣 Call me a rat if you want...have you ever been blackmailed for a trillion dollars that your actually worth? No? 😂🤣
@@MossyMozart I'm glad that I'm not the only one in StarTalk's viewership who remembers that film. We also need to remember _Dr. Strangelove_ and _Apocalypse Now_ these days. We have a lot of preverts in the proposed cabinet. I'm not making everything political; everything is inherently political because politics touch everything. (Sometimes that touch is consensual.) It's just politics aren't necessarily partisan.
Probability is also used in predictive correlational different research fields (different fields of science), particularly when there is a strong correlation, as indicated by a high correlation coefficient. So yes, basic probability should be taught in high school. I didn't have my first statistics class until my second year of college. Counting mode, median, frequency, and frequency distribution, etc... were kind of fun part of grading...
he has really grown on this show, he first came into it as an outsider and was the only 1 who did research for the episode so he actually had good questions and commentary, now he seems knowledgeable every week because he always researches the topic at hand!
Manifestation is seeing patterns in everything. YOU SEE WHAT YOU TELL YOURSELF you see. CREATEING a reality from your LEARNED expierence becomes YOUR BELIEF. Your mind is a storage bin. It does not create. The mind(isn't a working tool) lol
Love this topic. I once generated a series of graphs from random numbers and asked students to pick the one with a positive trend line. Trick question, of course, but it illustrates we're so good a finding patterns we even see them when they're not there.
That sad thing nobody noticed is that the entire episode is a commercial for Bitdefender. Been a fan for years. This was sad to see. I really hope it's not going to be a new model they embrace.
What a timely episode. I m trying to calculate my risk for a specific, route on a bicycle. Then for a car on the same route, at the same time. Was cool show thanks.
I have worked with computer systems for over 40 years and I'am a great fan of StarTalk. So I will give some advice on how I keep my computer safe from outside invasions. One way to test the vulnerability of your password is to use a password recovery program with a large wordlist database. If the password program from a trusted computer company doesn't recover your password, then it is a good chance that an outside or online source will not as well. A computer protected by a finger print reader is another way, but can be vulnerable if a gifted hacker knows how to lift the fingerprint from the reader. The method I find to be the best is a computer system using a hand scanner and barcodes that you keep on you at all times. You can use long complex passwords without having to remember them. You just have to keep the barcodes very secure. A two-step execution process is good too, as long as no one clone your phone.
If you split a class in two and ask half the class to flip a coin 500 times and write down the answers and the other half to make up 500 answers, you can tell which is which. 😀
Yes because the made up solutions will avoid having same side flipped several times which is actually going to happen and is likely for example: TTTTHHTHHH, ETC IS COMMON.
Great show, brothers! It was nice to see Chuck back. Meeting Gary and the Bitdefender guy was a highlight; he has a very important job. As Tyson, or perhaps Chuck, mentioned, his work in stopping hackers on a financial level could be worth trillions of dollars. But overall, fantastic show, fellas. Keep it going, and thank you for this!
I love this topic. I am writing a sci-fi novel around this, which is in all senses a miracle. The odds for that to happen and allow us to be alive, able to consciously see the universe, is the universe’s gift. There could be a larger number that we can count of attempts by the universe to produce consciousness of itself-beings that can understand, observe, and experiment with nature itself, as we do. Imagine Earth has all the miraculously perfect conditions, and we are the only beings able to do that among billions of other species that exist on Earth.
From a mathematical perspective, one might approach it by considering the vast number of variables and conditions required for the emergence of life as we know it. For instance, if we evaluate the unique conditions of our planet such as the precise distance from the sun, the presence of water, and the right atmospheric composition one could argue that the probability is incredibly low when compared to the total number of possible configurations in the universe. Furthermore, considering the anthropic principle, we recognize that we can only observe a universe conducive to our existence because we exist to observe it. Thus, while calculating a precise probability is near impossible due to the multitude of unknowns, it invites intriguing discussions about the nature of existence itself within the mathematical framework of probability theory.
As a 44 old computer engineer I totally agree with Alex with his sayings. Also as a professional I can say I already know those points and take precautions. But as technology is spreading to all kinds of people (like grandmas with a smartphone) those cyber security lessons should be taught every where to everybody.
I read a lot of the comments and I'd like to say: I like to take what good minds can offer and this was interesting and reliable information and so I try not to be disappointed by what they DON'T offer. There's just too much to hate these days and bitterness feels bad, but that's just ME.
The probability of being alive is mind blowing and also what are the chances of being alive at this specific time in human history and on the earth at the same time as the other humans also alive at this point in time!
COSMIC QUERY: Could we use time dilation to go BACK in time? I understand that time slows down at high speeds or in strong gravitational fields. If a person travels from Earth in a rocket at 0.999c for 3 months, then turns around and returns at the same speed, they would experience 6 months while Earth experiences X number of years due to time dilation. Now, considering that Earth is moving through the universe, if a rocket leaves Earth traveling in the same direction and then decelerates using retro thrusters to 1/10,000th of Earth’s speed, would time pass faster for the traveler compared to Earth? And if the traveler continues to slow down until they reach zero velocity relative to Earth, could this time dilation be so extreme that they might actually travel backward in time relative to earth?
Hey Chuck, here's another one where the house always wins. Stockbrokers make a commission 1) when you buy and another commission 2) when you sell. Regardless of whether you win or lose.
@reaperbsc That depends on your perspective. If you somehow looked at it through something beyond time your birth, death and everything you ever do or don't do is all happening at once.
The probability of this video coming out while I was talking with my friends about probability was indeed very low… but it happened. Video explaining itself before I even watch it.
27:23 from the perspective of someone who works in cyber, I agree. It used to be only 2 options... Those who have been hacked, and those yet to be hacked. But in 2024, it's more like those who have been known to be hacked, and those that don't know they've been hacked.
Odds may not appear to be the same for everyone. The more we observe outcomes without judgment of whether they are beneficial, benign or harmful, the more we will see an incredible number of outcomes that are mind-boggling. We are not able to affect outcome (or patterns if you prefer to call them), but when a pattern benefits us, we see it. The older I get, the more patterns I see and some have meaning to me and some do not, but the relationship can be a blind spot to the wondrous arrangement of patterns. Humans have a habit of seeing only what benefits them. Seeing a $100 bill on the sidewalk and it’s luck, meant to be. Seeing a pattern in nature that is worth far more, such as a cypress tree next to the $100 bill, is a witness which we may fail to reflect upon. How that beautiful tree came to be. Life is against the odds. Seeing is against the odds. Only… they’re really not.
I first came in contract to this idea via my beloved Polish SF writer Stanislaw Lem and his collection "A Perfect Vacuum" (1971), where one of the fictional books concerns the improbability of Life. (And I have to admit that Stanislaw Lem spoiled me to most of American SF, because to me, it is mainly silly, and I can't feel the same level of excitement as Neil deGrasse Tyson seems to have for it.)
State Lottery access is not available in areas where people have wealth; it's only found in poor communities. Essentially it's a tax on the poor and those who play it don't know that the system is the lion in the grass.
as a gamer i hate probability like something has a 1% chance (or 1/100) of happening doesnt mean it happens within 100 tries it might take only 10 or a whopping 100000 i also think that given an infinite amount of time with the billion trillion trillions of different humans we would eventually get a duplicate because at some point we will have exhausted all possible configurations of humans meaning if more get made they are required to take a configuration that has already happened before
I taught probability for 17 years in the sixth grade. Now I’m in fifth but we are departmentalized and I teach science and still talk about probability related to our experiments and topics.
so, how far away would a magnet need to be in order to deflect all that bad mojo the sun shoots at you on the moon/mars/on a spaceship? (and how powerful does it need to be?)
Of all the probabilities in the universe, for us to be alive, it's a rare and sacred gift, its that realization that helped me leave the Army, once you see that rare gift leave someone's eyes and they gloss over you realize that person is gone forever, and a monumental and terrible thing has just happened and it cannot be undone, and that person will never be here again.
22:24 Incredibly profound. Some people believe that without religion, then life has no meaning and there are no moral standards. I think that's bogus. There will never be another me, and that's motivation to leave my mark and be a peacemaker. It's beautiful!
Not only are the parking lots at Vegas casinos usually full, but in recent years they have started charging $20+ for parking that used to be free. As far as not understanding gambling odds, there are plenty of TH-cam videos promoting various betting schemes on games like roulette and craps that claim to make money for the bettors. These betting schemes invariably involve making a number of offsetting bets even though each of the individual bets have negative expectations, or some variation of the Martingale betting system which only work until you don't have money to make the maximum table bet, or your next bet is greater than the maximum table bet.
Here's a thought: It is logically possible for this unqualified randomness to be the most integral dynamic in causing/sustaining the Universe. Now that the Universe is organized, as it is, complete randomness affords a self-sustaining condition in which the behavior of the overall system can not possibly terminate or repeat without deviating from randomness. What is most conspicuous is that the randomness always yields conditions for further random outcomes, no matter how many are sequenced. This overall effect is not random in the conventional sense, but is nevertheless random in the strictest sense. This random behavior (on the scale of the quantum entanglement network spanning the entire continuum) does functionally guarantee that no process can mechanistically transpire which would self-destruct the system (or systematically reduce its complexity to a repeating or potentially terminating pattern). The complexity that we experience, then, not only becomes probable, but certain. However improbable such a system may seem, the infinite "opportunity" to "attempt" this random event would be true of whatever conditions were "present" "before" the event, as nothing existed to limit or influence the formation of primordial conditions and every other kind of conditionality either can't begin (repeating) or can't continue (terminating). If there is only one logically possible configuration that satisfies all constraints necessary for perfect complexification, then that configuration would constitute a guarantee of its own perpetual and infinitely generative existence, as against all hypothetical competitors. This is less of a hypothetical than a tautology, because there can only be one "most" complexifying condition. We happen to be in it because it supplants all alternatives, by definition. The question is begged "but how could it come to organize itself, as it is?" If the network operates consistent with a quantum algorithm, then it doesn't have to engineer itself on a linear continuum. The usual problems relating to circularity don't apply to such theories. It could even be that our observations of the universe contribute to its causation, in a non-trivial sense. There doesn't have to be a pre-existing reason for it other than pure logic and a priori truth relating to possible formal models of quantum-tunneling from a vacuum state... all entirely hypothetical. One of those possible models is a Universe that simply never fails to become more than what it already is (in the sense of complexification) but also never ceases to be exactly what it always has been. Reality solves this puzzle with such perfection that even the logical possibility of failure or competition is sublated. This "outcome" is simply what is true without reference to anything else, as there is nothing else.
I'd like to have it explained why a predictive text program doesn't simply look right around the letters that I start a word with to see if there is a possibility of a word that makes much more sense than the crap they put up. It always seems to get stuck on whatever first letter or second letter is in the word and heaven forbid you make a mistake in those letters
(21:38) Probability of being alive. Pretty lo. Lot like 52 card deck. AlI the permutations & combinations, throw the deck on the floor and restack it, the probability of ever seeing that particular arrangement again is nil. In practical terms you'll never see it again. Forgot how to figure it but think it involves factorials etc. Have to Iook it up.
Don't worry, Chuck. Any latino hearing your joke about algebra will have been teached maths with «Algebra de Baldor» (a book by cuban mathematician Aurelio Baldor) and its particularly recognizable cover illustration will have primed us to explode in laughter to it, just like I just did.
Like 3 times I thought Neil's doorknob in the background was something on my phone and I tried to wipe it away. 🤦🏼♀️ the probability I'll do that again next episode... 100%. 😉
One thing I learned early on in life was to never challenge people to do something because there is always someone out there who will succeed. Until that moment you're just lucky because nobody has paid any attention to you. With that said it would be nice with something else beside passwords because they're so weak in themselves.
Find out more about Bitdefender’s two decades of unparalleled cybersecurity excellence: bitdefend.me/StarTalkTA
Is someone thinking about scamming bad actors for science fundraising yet?😂
will this protect me from al jebra and isaac newton???
You failed to address that if the probability is greater than zero then it WILL eventually happen given infinite time, no matter how tiny the probability. You should know better as a physicist, Neil. I love Star Talk but this one annoyed me a lot.
Why is this a thing?🤨🤨🤨
I would accept royalties...
And I'm charitable...wtf..
I started a pay it forward movement..idk if you guys know that or not...
I'm not greedy at all..🙄🤷
Way to judge a book by a cover..
You guys are dumb..😒🙄
Blackmailing...🤨🙄🤷
The level of authentication doesn't matter when it comes to the BIG GUYS. I heard some stories on how they did it.
Here is one example.
Title: Exposing The Flaw In Our Phone System.
Timeline: 07:08 The kidnapping of Sheikha Latifa
Timeline: 16:17 How I was able to spy on Linus’ phone
Duration: 31:54
Channel: Veritasium@veritasium
A man is anxious about taking his first airplane flight. He is concerned the plane will have a bomb. His friend who understands probability tells him the odds of a bomb being on the plane is 1-289,876,398 (made up number, it's a joke) The man says he still feels uneasy even with those odds. So his friend suggests that he bring his own bomb onto the plane. The mans says WTF? Why would I do that? His friend's answer: "The odds of TWO bombs being on the plane are ASTRONOMICAL!!!" I was so lucky my dad was a math genius and always taught me about probabilities and real risk assessment. That was his joke by the way.
I’m stealing that thank u so much
Your dad is/was cool!
@@OceanPlanet60 yeah, it was like growing up with Carl Sagan as your dad. I was lucky for sure
That's a fun and creative joke. However, probability is still just a probability. The moment it happens to you, for you alone, the event becomes a truth grounded in reality, no matter how minuscule the original mathematical conclusion was.
@yaonyaon9460 Once something actually happens it's no longer a matter of probability. Something that most people don't understand. That's the joke. Bringing your own bomb doesn't change the odds of another bomb being on the plane.
I discovered StarTalk and love love love it! It's funny and instructive simultaneously. I want to see every episode. Signed 87 yr old widow with a C in physics from UI 1959.
Man Chuck is the best really love these more dialogue driven episodes.
I've really grown to like him a lot
Hey Chuck, here's another one where the house always wins. Stockbrokers make a commission 1) when you buy and another commission 2) when you sell. Regardless of whether you win or lose.
I had a fantastic math teacher when I was studying at an alternative school, who decided to teach me probability. Not only did I enjoy learning it, but it made me love math and excited to learn more. Never did I think I’d be someone to request moving on to Calculus!
Did you ever take it? I've gotta know!
Something you will find out very easily. When a city says a portion of the proceedings will go to education they mean is that the casino is paying for it INSTEAD of the city. Education funding directly drops in proportion to the money the casino gives and in almost EVERY instance the city council gives themselves a nice raise. This is ON TOP of the property tax exemption they get for the next 10-20 years. No city should ever allow a casino. IT is almost always rooted in some kind of corruption as those council member always get a bunch of gifts.
We just legalized sports betting in Missouri. The athletes themselves did ads for the measure. There was the same promise made that had been made earlier for the state lottery and riverboat casinos.
Reminds me of a major storyline in Ozark. Great serie
He was talking about lottery which is state run already..
The lottery is similar. When they say the funds will go to education they don’t say they won’t remove the previous funds. So the education funding doesn’t go up
I studied probabilities and I still buy lotto tickets once or twice a month . . . I put money in savings too, but when I'm buying the lotto ticket, I'm buying a couple of days of dreaming about winning.
Same. I'm sure you'd find a lot of people knowledgeable about statistics who do the same. What they don't generally do is buy 100 tickets every week.
@jmodified I buy like 1 ticket once in a blue moon you could literally buy 100 tickets everyday for 70 years straight and never hit the lotto
Same. This is basic Œconomics and lays out in stock pricing as well. There becomes a point where the expected payout of the lottery, which is the likelihood of winning, the value of the payout, your risk aversion, and the utility (re satisfaction) of the amusement of the dream from playing are equivalent to the $2 in your pocket.
youre buying the dream factor, helping charities, a chance to win big and a chance to win smaller amounts for matching less numbers
@@SilasJones-g7w One ticket or 100, either way you get basically the same thing - an insignificant but non-zero chance of winning that gives your mind the "right to dream" about winning.
Wow. Great episode. The beginning part talking about how unlikely it is that we as a person exist was beautiful. And the second half, well I’ve never wanted to go back to using cash and ditching online shopping so fast.
.^_^.
you can't use probabilities on present or past events, that's nonsense
Thanks Chuck for representing the everyday person in the group.
I took statistics in college as a requirement for my major. It was great class, the professor related everything to baseball, I quickly learned the difference between probability, odd and prediction. I highly recommend the class.
Thank you Tyson for reaffirming my beliefs of never blindly trusting so called "experts"
True but it has become way too common for people to believe BS from people with no expertise making bogus claims.
@charlesiphone5765 - It's not the experts, like this guest, that you have to worry about.
Lmao ironic how you trust Neil, the biggest phony in the business
“What is life? A frenetic chase. What is life? An illusion. What is life? A shadow, a fiction. What is life? Life is a dream, and dreams are dreams “
Pedro Calderon de la Barca
"What is love? Baby don't hurt me. Don't hurt me. No more."
Haddaway
La vida es sueno.
Stay away from my kids,😊
Seriously, thank you for always being there for me, guys ♥️
possibility takes the entire system into account and probability takes a node of a instance of the system into account
i like that they brought on a cybersecurity person here. i think chuck brought up a good question about password managers. the problem with a master password is that it is the single point of failure. if your master password is somehow cracked or released in a breach then all your passwords will then be public. its good to keep your password vault offline and separate from machines that are connected to the internet. it is hard to use a vault though when the laptop is not able to access the internet.
We can never reduce the risk to zero, which is what the "offline password vault" is trying to achieve. It's so slow and frustrating to use that in a time-restricted world people will fall out of the habit of using it. An online encrypted vault with a single unique password (one you've never used with a different account and that's not based on your family or daily life, is a more practical solution. This is what I personally use and have done for years. My master password has never been used elsewhere and is not even English. Hackers would then have to brute-force it, which is very process intensive. I believe they'd move along to the next victim or next vault they were trying to brute-force. Select a reputable password manager using strong encryption and you've minimised your risk without adding significant effort on your own part. Offline vaults are a solution akin to saying "I'll never fly ever because of the tiny risk of a plane crashing" and then having to deal with the time-consuming alternatives of driving/rail for long-distance.
I just make up a strong password, then forget about it, then when I want to log in again I hit the "forgot your password" link, then make a new strong password I can usually remember just long enough to log into the website 😂
Anyone and everyone, that uses the internet in any capacity, should watch this episode.
agreed :)
Correct. Also Kurzgesagt's video on doomscrolling has a very similar message: Cherish life.
My grad school stats professor was fond of saying "lotteries are taxes for those who are poor at math".
So awesome having my own personal astrophysicist. Though the odds don't look good, I'm positive the rest of you will also find your own personal astrophysicist some day.
Have you learned nothing about probability, if you can stumble upon one, then one would think the probability is pretty high. Do you also hire a personal trainer and think you're his/her only client? Personal doesn't mean it's exclusive to you, multiple people can have the same personal astrophysicist, no?
@@NulJern 🫂
No no no, it's My personal astrophysicist.
Lol 😅
So you’re saying there’s a chance . YES
Just another banger. Keep up the good work guys.
These 3 are so darn entertaining
I was listening while doing boring data work. My output was severely impacted by many guffaws today.
@@JC-justchillinXD
Nine minutes in and need to say I'm loving the discussion. I've recently been watching a series about probability and philosophy. Hearing other povs is wonderful.
This lesson on analytics and risk assessment sure fits these times we are in. This is valuable information that should be absorbed by open minds who like to make a positive difference in the world.sometimes we have to put our emotions aside and let the math make the decision. Could make for a more educated and efficient American society.
For us here in Maharashtra(India) Probablility, statistics, set theory, permutations and combinations, calculus were part of syllabus of which stat and sets were taught to anyone who completed 10th grade while rest were compulsory for those who elected to study maths(under science stream while for those who went to commerce didn't learn calculus) in 11 and 12th.
I didn't know about probability until junior year....in college....-_-
I've always said, "Those big beautiful casinos weren't built on what people won."
YES! Look at all those lights and flashing notices!!
Casinos don’t give away money!
The house always wins
🧂
It would be very nice if you could translate this to different languages like Spanish. I would love to show this to my friends and family abroad. Love the show!!
I am alive against stupendous odds.
If you weren't alive, then it would be a moot point.
You are alive according to all the data we have , thus the odds are 100%
We were taught Statistics at A level in my school (Dynevor Senior Comprehensive) with a teacher called doctorr Jowett. He was very interesting as a lecturer and got me interested in the subject. Good on you , Dr. Jowett. You were one of my favourite Teachers.
You should send Dr Jowett an email or letter and thank him yourself as the probability he sees your comment is very low. 🤣 Plus, isn't it nice to discover you made an impact on someone no matter how big or little?
5:20 WOPR / Joshua: "A strange game. The only winning move is not to play."
No they are dumb...they should have blackmailed me after they gave me the money...they are just holding the process up 😂🤣
I went to the feds..😂🤣
We'll see 😂🤣
They are just hold up the process because i can accept royalties and I'm charitable..they have no leg up at all 😂🤣
I'm dealing with immature children 😂🤣
They are dealing with an actual literal genius 😂🤣
Call me a rat if you want...have you ever been blackmailed for a trillion dollars that your actually worth? No? 😂🤣
I thought of the same film, too: _War Games._
@@MossyMozart I'm glad that I'm not the only one in StarTalk's viewership who remembers that film. We also need to remember _Dr. Strangelove_ and _Apocalypse Now_ these days. We have a lot of preverts in the proposed cabinet.
I'm not making everything political; everything is inherently political because politics touch everything. (Sometimes that touch is consensual.) It's just politics aren't necessarily partisan.
"Let me sum these numbers together and divide (by the count of them) and see if that MEANS anything"
I caught that too. I’m just an average guy.
Outstanding
Best preparation ever
Probability is also used in predictive correlational different research fields (different fields of science), particularly when there is a strong correlation, as indicated by a high correlation coefficient. So yes, basic probability should be taught in high school. I didn't have my first statistics class until my second year of college. Counting mode, median, frequency, and frequency distribution, etc... were kind of fun part of grading...
I love Gary O'Reilly, he is so good on this show..
he has really grown on this show, he first came into it as an outsider and was the only 1 who did research for the episode so he actually had good questions and commentary, now he seems knowledgeable every week because he always researches the topic at hand!
its good to see chuck... it calms me down.
Thank you for bringing Alex on, very informative to everyone.
Against all odds, I am alive
And yet I still wish it weren't so
Why?
You guys have to do this again.. so engaging, entertaining and informative ❤
Manifestation is seeing patterns in everything.
YOU SEE WHAT YOU TELL YOURSELF you see.
CREATEING a reality from your LEARNED expierence becomes YOUR BELIEF.
Your mind is a storage bin.
It does not create.
The mind(isn't a working tool) lol
My favorite Math topic + NDT ! what a beautiful day
Love this topic. I once generated a series of graphs from random numbers and asked students to pick the one with a positive trend line. Trick question, of course, but it illustrates we're so good a finding patterns we even see them when they're not there.
I really like this channel, and I listen almost every day, but jeez, does there really have to be an ad every 2 minutes!?
if you watch YT for more than an hour a day, premium is super worth it.
That sad thing nobody noticed is that the entire episode is a commercial for Bitdefender. Been a fan for years. This was sad to see. I really hope it's not going to be a new model they embrace.
Get ReVanced
Very engaging and useful!
Neil and Chuck make SUCH a good team
What a timely episode. I m trying to calculate my risk for a specific, route on a bicycle. Then for a car on the same route, at the same time. Was cool show thanks.
Algebra, to teach you’ll carry “weapons of math instruction” (movie).
I have worked with computer systems for over 40 years and I'am a great fan of StarTalk. So I will give some advice on how I keep my computer safe from outside invasions. One way to test the vulnerability of your password is to use a password recovery program with a large wordlist database. If the password program from a trusted computer company doesn't recover your password, then it is a good chance that an outside or online source will not as well. A computer protected by a finger print reader is another way, but can be vulnerable if a gifted hacker knows how to lift the fingerprint from the reader. The method I find to be the best is a computer system using a hand scanner and barcodes that you keep on you at all times. You can use long complex passwords without having to remember them. You just have to keep the barcodes very secure. A two-step execution process is good too, as long as no one clone your phone.
Chuck, as always, you are an indispensable part of StarTalk...Keep up the good work!
If you split a class in two and ask half the class to flip a coin 500 times and write down the answers and the other half to make up 500 answers, you can tell which is which. 😀
Yes because the made up solutions will avoid having same side flipped several times which is actually going to happen and is likely for example: TTTTHHTHHH, ETC IS COMMON.
Lost the coin, give me another
Fabulous episode. Thanks!
Great show, brothers! It was nice to see Chuck back. Meeting Gary and the Bitdefender guy was a highlight; he has a very important job. As Tyson, or perhaps Chuck, mentioned, his work in stopping hackers on a financial level could be worth trillions of dollars. But overall, fantastic show, fellas. Keep it going, and thank you for this!
Chuck says that’s out of the realm of numbers pretty good.
Thanks for opening my eyes to the relationships between gambling, probablity, and education.
I love this topic. I am writing a sci-fi novel around this, which is in all senses a miracle. The odds for that to happen and allow us to be alive, able to consciously see the universe, is the universe’s gift. There could be a larger number that we can count of attempts by the universe to produce consciousness of itself-beings that can understand, observe, and experiment with nature itself, as we do. Imagine Earth has all the miraculously perfect conditions, and we are the only beings able to do that among billions of other species that exist on Earth.
Neil, your take on the 1 in 8 head explotion thing is stuck in my mind!!
From a mathematical perspective, one might approach it by considering the vast number of variables and conditions required for the emergence of life as we know it. For instance, if we evaluate the unique conditions of our planet such as the precise distance from the sun, the presence of water, and the right atmospheric composition one could argue that the probability is incredibly low when compared to the total number of possible configurations in the universe. Furthermore, considering the anthropic principle, we recognize that we can only observe a universe conducive to our existence because we exist to observe it. Thus, while calculating a precise probability is near impossible due to the multitude of unknowns, it invites intriguing discussions about the nature of existence itself within the mathematical framework of probability theory.
Great, great video. Seriously.
Thanks for bringing us some positive and educational content in these dark times. You guys are the best.
As a 44 old computer engineer I totally agree with Alex with his sayings. Also as a professional I can say I already know those points and take precautions. But as technology is spreading to all kinds of people (like grandmas with a smartphone) those cyber security lessons should be taught every where to everybody.
I read a lot of the comments and I'd like to say: I like to take what good minds can offer and this was interesting and reliable information and so I try not to be disappointed by what they DON'T offer. There's just too much to hate these days and bitterness feels bad, but that's just ME.
The probability of being alive is mind blowing and also what are the chances of being alive at this specific time in human history and on the earth at the same time as the other humans also alive at this point in time!
This was an awesome episode, thank you for the solid info.
COSMIC QUERY: Could we use time dilation to go BACK in time? I understand that time slows down at high speeds or in strong gravitational fields. If a person travels from Earth in a rocket at 0.999c for 3 months, then turns around and returns at the same speed, they would experience 6 months while Earth experiences X number of years due to time dilation.
Now, considering that Earth is moving through the universe, if a rocket leaves Earth traveling in the same direction and then decelerates using retro thrusters to 1/10,000th of Earth’s speed, would time pass faster for the traveler compared to Earth? And if the traveler continues to slow down until they reach zero velocity relative to Earth, could this time dilation be so extreme that they might actually travel backward in time relative to earth?
I believe they take "Cosmic Queries" through Patreon. But as I understand it, the starter rung is inexpensive.
There is no such thing as "zero velocity" in space. Velocity is relative. As long as something is moving, you will be moving in relation to it.
Hey Chuck, here's another one where the house always wins. Stockbrokers make a commission 1) when you buy and another commission 2) when you sell. Regardless of whether you win or lose.
Wow Startalk has almost 4 million subscribers
Quite low considering who it is and how good it is.
Thank you Chuck!
Question: has the future already happened or does it change with every move or was every move supposed to happen??
How could the future have already happened? What? That would make it the past, not the future...
@reaperbsc That depends on your perspective. If you somehow looked at it through something beyond time your birth, death and everything you ever do or don't do is all happening at once.
The probability of this video coming out while I was talking with my friends about probability was indeed very low… but it happened. Video explaining itself before I even watch it.
I just realized that Neil really likes saying
"Asstrophysicist"
27:23 from the perspective of someone who works in cyber, I agree. It used to be only 2 options... Those who have been hacked, and those yet to be hacked. But in 2024, it's more like those who have been known to be hacked, and those that don't know they've been hacked.
Odds may not appear to be the same for everyone. The more we observe outcomes without judgment of whether they are beneficial, benign or harmful, the more we will see an incredible number of outcomes that are mind-boggling. We are not able to affect outcome (or patterns if you prefer to call them), but when a pattern benefits us, we see it. The older I get, the more patterns I see and some have meaning to me and some do not, but the relationship can be a blind spot to the wondrous arrangement of patterns. Humans have a habit of seeing only what benefits them. Seeing a $100 bill on the sidewalk and it’s luck, meant to be. Seeing a pattern in nature that is worth far more, such as a cypress tree next to the $100 bill, is a witness which we may fail to reflect upon. How that beautiful tree came to be. Life is against the odds. Seeing is against the odds. Only… they’re really not.
Oh Neil... I've never agreed with you more than on this video. Well done !
You are all so funny , thanks 😂🙏🏼💫
The state lottery is completely for education. It's not their fault there's a whole lot of people who don't understand the assignment lol
44:24 Gary like a true brit asking for tea
I first came in contract to this idea via my beloved Polish SF writer Stanislaw Lem and his collection "A Perfect Vacuum" (1971), where one of the fictional books concerns the improbability of Life. (And I have to admit that Stanislaw Lem spoiled me to most of American SF, because to me, it is mainly silly, and I can't feel the same level of excitement as Neil deGrasse Tyson seems to have for it.)
wow, thank you for turning me onto this writer!
Nice one chuck.
State Lottery access is not available in areas where people have wealth; it's only found in poor communities. Essentially it's a tax on the poor and those who play it don't know that the system is the lion in the grass.
5:04 The moment Neil realizes Chuck is more of an expert on the topic
Thank God for you all
as a gamer i hate probability like something has a 1% chance (or 1/100) of happening doesnt mean it happens within 100 tries it might take only 10 or a whopping 100000
i also think that given an infinite amount of time with the billion trillion trillions of different humans we would eventually get a duplicate because at some point we will have exhausted all possible configurations of humans meaning if more get made they are required to take a configuration that has already happened before
Yes, I may dream a million dreams,
But how can they come true,
If there will never, ever be...
Another you?"
So fascinating
0:07 so without the odds, should it still be cherished?
I taught probability for 17 years in the sixth grade. Now I’m in fifth but we are departmentalized and I teach science and still talk about probability related to our experiments and topics.
Life should be cherished!!
We are so fortunate and unfortunate to be alive maybe it just depends of the era
“You’d think we’d never stop dancing” Lewis Thomas
so, how far away would a magnet need to be in order to deflect all that bad mojo the sun shoots at you on the moon/mars/on a spaceship? (and how powerful does it need to be?)
Of all the probabilities in the universe, for us to be alive, it's a rare and sacred gift, its that realization that helped me leave the Army, once you see that rare gift leave someone's eyes and they gloss over you realize that person is gone forever, and a monumental and terrible thing has just happened and it cannot be undone, and that person will never be here again.
Gradeschool and highschool in the US in the 1960s: ZERO statistics. Never heard of anyone who learned any statistics in public school.
What? I did in CT in the 90's. In Middle school...
@@reaperbsc 1990s, very possibly. 1960s-in my experience-no.
Its not hard to make human being, its gard to make 'you' ,but have in mind that cosmos does not care about 'you'
it is so cool that both things are simultaneously true.
Luv luv Star talk 🙏🏼
22:24 Incredibly profound. Some people believe that without religion, then life has no meaning and there are no moral standards. I think that's bogus. There will never be another me, and that's motivation to leave my mark and be a peacemaker. It's beautiful!
Not only are the parking lots at Vegas casinos usually full, but in recent years they have started charging $20+ for parking that used to be free.
As far as not understanding gambling odds, there are plenty of TH-cam videos promoting various betting schemes on games like roulette and craps that claim to make money for the bettors. These betting schemes invariably involve making a number of offsetting bets even though each of the individual bets have negative expectations, or some variation of the Martingale betting system which only work until you don't have money to make the maximum table bet, or your next bet is greater than the maximum table bet.
Here's a thought: It is logically possible for this unqualified randomness to be the most integral dynamic in causing/sustaining the Universe. Now that the Universe is organized, as it is, complete randomness affords a self-sustaining condition in which the behavior of the overall system can not possibly terminate or repeat without deviating from randomness. What is most conspicuous is that the randomness always yields conditions for further random outcomes, no matter how many are sequenced. This overall effect is not random in the conventional sense, but is nevertheless random in the strictest sense. This random behavior (on the scale of the quantum entanglement network spanning the entire continuum) does functionally guarantee that no process can mechanistically transpire which would self-destruct the system (or systematically reduce its complexity to a repeating or potentially terminating pattern). The complexity that we experience, then, not only becomes probable, but certain. However improbable such a system may seem, the infinite "opportunity" to "attempt" this random event would be true of whatever conditions were "present" "before" the event, as nothing existed to limit or influence the formation of primordial conditions and every other kind of conditionality either can't begin (repeating) or can't continue (terminating). If there is only one logically possible configuration that satisfies all constraints necessary for perfect complexification, then that configuration would constitute a guarantee of its own perpetual and infinitely generative existence, as against all hypothetical competitors. This is less of a hypothetical than a tautology, because there can only be one "most" complexifying condition. We happen to be in it because it supplants all alternatives, by definition. The question is begged "but how could it come to organize itself, as it is?" If the network operates consistent with a quantum algorithm, then it doesn't have to engineer itself on a linear continuum. The usual problems relating to circularity don't apply to such theories. It could even be that our observations of the universe contribute to its causation, in a non-trivial sense. There doesn't have to be a pre-existing reason for it other than pure logic and a priori truth relating to possible formal models of quantum-tunneling from a vacuum state... all entirely hypothetical. One of those possible models is a Universe that simply never fails to become more than what it already is (in the sense of complexification) but also never ceases to be exactly what it always has been. Reality solves this puzzle with such perfection that even the logical possibility of failure or competition is sublated. This "outcome" is simply what is true without reference to anything else, as there is nothing else.
I'd like to have it explained why a predictive text program doesn't simply look right around the letters that I start a word with to see if there is a possibility of a word that makes much more sense than the crap they put up. It always seems to get stuck on whatever first letter or second letter is in the word and heaven forbid you make a mistake in those letters
Thank God for Fine Tuning.
(21:38) Probability of being alive. Pretty lo. Lot like 52 card deck. AlI the permutations & combinations, throw the deck on the floor and restack it, the probability of ever seeing that particular arrangement again is nil. In practical terms you'll never see it again. Forgot how to figure it but think it involves factorials etc. Have to Iook it up.
Probalility 100%. Think!
Don't worry, Chuck. Any latino hearing your joke about algebra will have been teached maths with «Algebra de Baldor» (a book by cuban mathematician Aurelio Baldor) and its particularly recognizable cover illustration will have primed us to explode in laughter to it, just like I just did.
Every time they say a password of 1234, I keep thinking, "That's the kind of combination an idiot has on his luggage!" 🤣
Like 3 times I thought Neil's doorknob in the background was something on my phone and I tried to wipe it away. 🤦🏼♀️ the probability I'll do that again next episode... 100%. 😉
if you can ask the question, your odds of being alive are 100%
did they mean to ask a different question ?
My passwords are written down, locked in a safe, several protocols to get in the house. And good luck reading my handwriting.
Ditto, I can barely read what I wrote.
One thing I learned early on in life was to never challenge people to do something because there is always someone out there who will succeed. Until that moment you're just lucky because nobody has paid any attention to you. With that said it would be nice with something else beside passwords because they're so weak in themselves.
@Mr.PeabodyTheSkeptic -
You may want to re-watch the video to see how that's not adequate. It's the online realm where you will be tripped up.
Nothing is full proof don’t gives these hackers a challenge